Payoff Pitch- Casual Observances of a Baseball Fan

Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

San Francisco Giants:            The final team we will look at the NL will be the San Francisco Giants.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Aubrey Huff

2B            Freddy Sanchez

SS            Ryan Theriot

3B            Pablo Sandoval

LF            Brandon Belt

CF            Melky Cabrera

RF            Nate Schierholtz

C              Buster Posey

Projected Starting Rotation:

Tim Lincecum

Matt Cain

Ryan Vogelsong

Madison Bumgarner

Barry Zito

Projected Batting Order:

SS            Ryan Theriot

2B            Freddy Sanchez

C              Buster Posey

3B            Pablo Sandoval

1B            Aubrey Huff

RF            Nate Schierholtz

LF            Brandon Belt

CF            Melky Cabrera

The Giants weren’t pleased with 2011.  After coming off a World Series title in 2010, they ended the season with a respectable 86-76 record, but didn’t make the playoffs as they finished the season 8 games behind the NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks.  One of the big reasons for last season’s struggles was the loss of 2010’s offensive hero, Buster Posey.  After he got hurt the Giants dragged along until they were able to trade for Jeff Keppinger and Carlos Beltran.  Then they made a push, but came up short. 

This team doesn’t have a lot in the way of offense.  Tim Brown wrote a great article for Yahoo sports talking about the Giants offensive and defensive splits.  He essentially points out that the pitching is so good that they don’t need much offense to win.  To illustrate, the Giants finished in the bottom 5 in NL offenses every year except for one in the last 8 years, and the only year they finished in 9^th (out of 16 NL teams), they ended up winning the World Series.  (for the whole story visit this link: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AjpyxH5Yn.WYttH4dU5F6G.FCLcF?slug=ti-brown_hot_stove_daily_san_francisco_giants_posey_013012).  If this team is going to win, they need some semblance of offense and that’s got to start with Posey.  After him, he’ll need the support of veterans Huff, Sandoval and Sanchez and for other youngsters to grow into their roles as well (Brandon Belt).  Last season’s team was led offensively by Huff and Sandoval.  Huff led the team with a 246 AVG, (that’s right, no one who qualified for the batting title on this team hit higher than 250) and Pablo led the team with 23 HR and 70 RBI.  The good news for the Giants, is that injuries are mostly to blame for their lack of offense.  Only two players were able to play in over 120 games, and only one in 150 or more games.  The team-batting champ, Huff, hit 246 with 12 HR and 59 RBI.  That’s miserable offensive output from your first baseman.   The other corner of the infield showed some promise.  Pablo Sandoval had a breakout campaign in 09, only to put on a ton of weight and be abysmal in 2010.  Last year he lost some weight and we saw some improvement.  He only played in 117 games, but hit 315 with 23 HR and 70 RBI.  If the Giants are going to contend this year, he’s going to be a major part of it.  After Huff, Posey and Sandoval, a lot of the Giants are new faces.  Melky Cabrera comes in to play center after a career year in Kansas City.  Angel Pagan is in town to challenge Nate Schierholtz for playing time in right, or Cabrera for playing time in center.  Ryan Theriot is pushing youngster Brandon Crawford for playing time at short.  I’m not sure who starts the season at short. If Crawford does, then expect Melky Cabrera to lead off, or Angel Pagan if he can force his way into the lineup.  There’s a lot of wait and see with this team.  If Huff is bad, then Belt will move to first and give Pagan some playing time.  If Theriot doesn’t impress then Crawford will start at short.  Or maybe Mike Fontenot.  There are a lot of questions for the Giants offensively.  But if Posey and Pablo deliver, then this team should have the pitching to make some noise out west. 

And let’s talk about that pitching staff.  It’s led by former Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum.  Lincecum led the team with 13 Wins, 220 Ks and had a tidy little 2.74 ERA, good enough for second among the Giants starters.  But here’s something that most people didn’t realize.  Tim Lincecum had a losing record last season.  That’s right.  Those numbers were good enough for 13 wins and 14 losses.  That may give you an idea of what this pitching staff has to deal with in terms of run support.  The number 2 starter, Matt Cain, also had a fantastic year.  He went 12-11 with a 2.88 ERA and 179 Ks.  His 217 BAA was best among San Fran starters as was his 1.08 WHIP.  He also led the team with 221 IP.  He may not mow hitters down like Lincecum, but this guy would be the ace on many other staffs.   That brings us to Madison Bumgarner, the third Giants pitcher to make over 30 starts and record over 200 IP.  He wasn’t as dominant as the two guys in front of him (13-13 record, 3.21 ERA, 260 BAA) but he did have double digit wins, and a solid ERA to go with 191 Ks, which was second on the team.  The surprise of this pitching staff last year was Ryan Vogelsong.  Vogelsong spent 2000-2006 mainly pitching in relief for the Giants and Pirates.  (He did make 26 starts for Pittsburgh in 2004 going 6-13 with a 6.50 ERA).  After the 06 season, he was out of baseball until last year when he was able to make the Giants team.  He then shocked the team in 28 starts, going 13-7 and leading the Giants with a 2.71 ERA.  And it doesn’t look like a fluke.  He gave up 164 Hits in 179 IP, had a 1.25 WHIP and a nice 244 BAA.  If last season is an indication of him having figured out how to pitch in the majors, then watch out.  That would give the Giants 4 All Star caliber starters.  Their 5^th starter is Barry Zito, who has never lived up to his monster contract.  And I don’t mean that he just hasn’t pitched to the level of all that money, I mean that he’s been terrible, with a losing record and an ERA north of 4 every year since joining the Giants.  He makes too much money to not pitch, so the Giants hope he won’t hurt them too bad when he’s out there.  Clay Hensley lies in wait if he struggles too much. 

2012 Prediction…The world will end on Dec. 21^st.  Just kidding.  The Giants recipe for success has been fantastic pitching paired with slightly below average hitting.  The year they got it right they won it all.  However, the Giants usually don’t live up to their lofty expectations of slightly below average offense.  They are usually terrible.  Absolutely abysmal.  If they can have Posey and Sandoval give this team some semblance of offense (like 1-2 runs a game) then this team could contend in the weak NL West.  However I think that they will have trouble upsetting a strong Diamondbacks team that will be looking to win their second straight NL West title.

Up next…Baltimore Orioles.