Sunday, February 26, 2012


Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

Detroit Tigers:            The next team to discuss in the AL Central is the Detroit Tigers.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Prince Fielder
2B            Ryan Raburn
SS            Jhonny Peralta
3B            Miguel Cabrera
LF            Delmon Young
CF            Austin Jackson
RF            Brennan Boesch
C              Alex Avila
DH           Brandon Inge

Projected Starting Rotation

Justin Verlander
Max Scherzer
Rick Porcello
Doug Fister
Jacob Turner

Projected Batting Order:

CF            Austin Jackson
RF            Brennan Boesch
3B            Miguel Cabrera
1B            Prince Fielder
LF            Delmon Young
C              Alex Avila
SS            Jhonny Peralta
DH           Brandon Inge
2B            Ryan Raburn

The Detroit Tigers have had quite the offseason.  They signed one of the biggest free agents on the market in the biggest surprise move of the offseason.  The Prince Fielder sweepstakes were thought to be between the Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins and Texas Rangers.  Instead the Tigers swooped in at the last minute and grabbed the young power hitter.  He now heads to the city where his father used to be a star to anchor this talented offense.  As good as their hitters are expected to be, the other headlining story for this club is, how will this defense work?  The Tigers won the AL Central last season with a defense that could be generously be considered average.  They hope that they have enough offense to cover the precipitous drop this defense took from average, to decidedly subpar.  The good news for them is that they have a few power pitchers on their staff that overwhelm hitters, striking them out and getting weak contact.  And the theory is that their powerful offense can overcome any defensive deficiencies that the Tigers will face.  If they are right, the Tigers should be headed for a second straight division crown and some October baseball.

Miguel Cabrera was the core of this team last season, leading them in AVG (344), HR (31), RBI (105) and R (111).  He was in the heart of the MVP discussion and is a batting champ.  He’s one of the best hitters in the majors and is a lot younger than most people realize.  He was a third baseman in Florida and in his first year or so in Detroit.  However he was a little big for the hot corner, and moved over to first a few seasons ago.  Jim Lelyland wants him to play some third this season to open up first base for Fielder.  The fact is, he was bad at third before he moved over to first.  Moving him back to third could be bad news for groundball pitchers Porcello and Fister, especially with Fielder’s limited range and first and Rayburn’s limited range at second.  The only decent fielder in the infield is Jhonny Peralta.  But even he’s, at best, slightly above average.  So we’ll see if this defense ends up being a major problem for Detroit.  The theory is, they hit so well that bad range and the occasional error can be made up for at the plate.  We’ll see if that happens.  After Miguel Cabrera, the second best hitter on the club was Victor Martinez who hit 330 with 103 RBI.  But he’s been lost for the year due to injury.  The other All Star for this team was young Alex Avila behind the plate.  Avila hit 295 with 19 HR and 82 RBI.  This was a welcome surprise, and looked like it was for real.  I don’t know if he’ll hit that well in 2012, but Tigers think he’s a legitimate star and he really does look good at the plate.  The other player who had a surprisingly good offensive season was shortstop Jhonny Peralta.  A lot of people have expected him to be a star, and he hasn’t delivered.  But he’s been pretty good in parts of different seasons and really put it together last year.  He hit 299 with 21 HR and 86 RBI for the Tigers last season and was an All Star.  He’s had power in the past, and was always good at driving in runs.  The AVG finally went to a place they thought it should be and the Tigers are hoping it continues for him this season.  The good news for people like Peralta, Inge and Avila is that with two monster hitters in front of them, they should get lots of pitches to hit.  Speaking of Inge, he had a down season last year.  He played in only 102 games and logged only 269 ABs.  He hit 197 with 3 HR and 23 RBI.  The Tigers really hope injury was to blame for that.  He’s only two years removed from a 27 HR, 84 RBI, 71 R scored effort in 09.  But he slumped a bit in 2010 hitting 13 HR and 70 RBI.  And the reason those power numbers are important is because his highest AVG over the last three seasons was 247.  He needs to turn it around this year, as he’s already losing playing time over at third, and there are plenty of other strong hitters waiting to take some time away from him at DH.  One of the hitters who may move into a DH role a little more this season is left fielder Delmon Young.  Young only played in 124 games last season between Minnesota and Detroit.  He hit 268 with 12 HR and 64 RBI.  However visions of his 2010 are dancing in Detroit’s heads when he hit 298 with 21 HR and 112 RBI.  He’s a talented young man, who will start in left for this club.  He’ll get some time at DH as he’s not a defensive phenom either.  Moving around the outfield we find Austin Jackson in center.  The second year center fielder hit 249 with 10 HR, 45 RBI, 90 R and 22 SB.  He’s your classic leadoff man with great speed.  He’s young and his AVG and OBP leave something to be desired.  In his rookie season he hit over 300, but a very generous BABIP left everyone expecting that number to come down.  He did get on base and score 90 R.  If he can cut down on those Ks (181), and improve that AVG and OBP then he should get to 100 R, and maybe steal 30 bases this season.  The SBs aren’t that important though, because as long as he can get on base, multiple people can drive him in by taking pitchers deep.  The right fielder will also hit at the top of the lineup.  Second year man Brennan Boesch had a strong season last year hitting 283 in 115 games.  That came with 16 HR, 54 RBI, and 75 R.  After a streaky rookie season and the departure of Magglio Ordonez, he hit well enough to get himself a starting job.  Some think he’ll platoon with Don Kelly, but I’d let Boesch start.  He could take some time at DH as well, though I think Kelly will get a lot of playing time there.  They have 2 outfielders and a spare third baseman, all of which are expected to take some time at DH.  Leyland would like Fielder and Cabrera to DH occasionally too, but it’s hard to sell them on that.  The one player we haven’t talked about in that rotation is Don Kelly.  In his fourth year in the majors last year, Kelly hit 245 with 7 HR and 28 RBI in 112 games.  I don’t think he takes the starting job from Boesch, though it’s feasible to see him get playing time at both corner outfield positions, especially if Inge struggles as a DH.  The last part of the offense to talk about is the right side of the infield.  Ryan Raburn will man second this year.  After two strong years in 2009 and 2010, he slumped a little in 2011.  He hit 256 with 14 HR, 49 RBI and 53 R.  The years before saw similar power numbers but a much higher AVG in the 280-290 range.  If he can bounce back to that range, he will give the Tigers a full infield of hitters with plus power and AVG.  And that brings us to the big offseason acquisition:  Prince Fielder.  Fielder had a typical season for him, hitting 299 with 38 HR, 120 RBI and 95 R.  He’s hit for pretty good AVG most years (slumped a bit to 261 in 2010) but has hit at least 30 HR and 83 RBI in every season.  If you overlook his slump year in 2010, he’s been one of the best power hitters in the majors.  After his rookie call-up in 2006, his HR totals have been as follows:  28, 50, 34, 46, 32 and 38.  His career AVG is 282.  And he’s never missed time with injury.  His defense at first base isn’t great, but he’s improved every season.  He now heads to Detroit to hit 4th in this lineup and provide some protection to Miguel Cabrera.  He should be a lock for 30 HR and 100 RBI easily, though 40 and 120 aren’t unrealistic.  He may get some time at DH this season, but either way he’ll be hitting in this lineup almost every day.  This may be the best offensive lineup in the majors, and Fielder and Cabrera are at the heart of it.

When we talk about Detroit’s pitching, one name obviously jumps out:  Justin Verlander.  He’s an All Star, Rookie of the Year, and, as of last year, is a Cy Young Winner.  But all that pales in comparison to the other award he won last season:  the AL MVP.  He was the first pitcher to win the award since Dennis Eckersley won it in 1992, and the first starter to win it since Roger Clemens in 1986.  He led the majors in the AL Triple Crown categories last season with 24 Wins, a 2.40 ERA and 250 Ks.  Also, he led the league in IP, with 251.  There are no words to express how fantastic his season was last year.  It was good enough to unanimously win the Cy Young, and beat out all hitters for the MVP.  This guy is the best pitcher in the majors.  He is the epitome of an ace, and leads this team on the mound.  The number 2 pitcher on this staff was Max Scherzer who had a pretty good season last year.  He went 15-9 with a 4.43 ERA.  He was second on the team in IP with 195 and had 174 Ks.  His WHIP and BAA left a lot to be desired, and a good offense helped him earn those 15 Wins.  But despite giving up a ton of hits, he was able to bear down and not give up too many runs.  They’d like for him to not let as many guys on base, but if he can continue to strand runners and overpower hitters while eating innings, the Tigers will be happy with him as the guy pitching after Verlander.  The other two pitchers who started 30 games were the departed Brad Penny and the youngster Rick Porcello.  Porcello continued to improve in his third season.  He went 14-9 with a 4.75 ERA.  His secondary numbers were similar to Scherzer’s, and they were too high (1.41 WHIP, 292 BAA).  He’s a groundball pitcher who eats innings.  He’s still got a lot to learn, and the AL is an unforgiving place to pitch.  If he keeps pitching with runners on, then his luck won’t continue to hold out and his ERA (which isn’t good right now) will continue to climb.  The other concern for Porcello this year is that the defense behind him got a lot less talented.  He is pitching best when he’s pitching to contact and inducing weak groundballs.  But if those weak groundballs are getting through the infield, he’s going to be in a lot of trouble this season.  The number 3 starter for this year will be Doug Fister, who joined the team halfway through last season.  In 21 games for Seattle before he was traded, he went 3-12.  But he had a solid 3.33 ERA, 252 BAA and a good 1.17 WHIP.  After he joined a better team in Detroit, he went 8-1 in 10 games with a 1.79 ERA and a sparkling 206 BAA and 0.84 WHIP.  That’s absolutely superb.  Overall his numbers for last season 11-13 in 32 games, with a 2.83 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.  Fister is a very good pitcher.  However, he too is a groundball guy who eats innings and relies on a strong defense behind him.  The concern with these new players is that they will not be able to cover as much ground, and hitters that were grounding out for Fister last year will be finding holes and getting on base.  But I think Fister is less likely to suffer as he’s shown that hitters really don’t hit well off of him, and his numbers are less prone to the passing winds of luck.  The 5th starter is likely to be youngster Jacob Turner.  Turner has been solid in the minors, but never a star.  After 42 starts in all levels of the minor leagues, he has a 10-10 record with a 3.36 ERA and 212 Ks in 246 IP.  In 3 starts for the major league club last season, he went 0-1 with an 8.53 ERA.  He struck out 8 and walked 4 in 12 IP.  They hope that sample size means nothing and that a spring training preparing to start for the major league club will bring numbers closer to his stats from the minor leagues.  He was a highly rated prospect, but never was seen as a star.  They’d like to give him a chance as he’s so young, but if he struggles Phil Coke lurks in the bullpen waiting to steal starts away.  That bullpen looks pretty solid, with Jose Valverde coming off a strong season as closer and Joaquin Benoit and Octavio Dotel setting up for him.  The Tigers feel that if that can get to the late innings, the MLB saves leader from last season won’t let them down.

2012 Prediction…Detroit won the division last year.  After their tremendous offseason, you have to assume they got even better.  And with no other Central team making grand improvements, they have to be the favorites to win the division this season.  I think they were a good offense with solid pitching led by an ace.  Now I think they are a great offense with solid pitching led by an ace.  They should be playing October baseball, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them playing for the pennant this year.

Up next…Kansas City Royals.

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