Payoff Pitch- Casual Observances of a Baseball Fan

Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

Baltimore Orioles:            Having finished the National League, we now move to American League.  Our first team will be from the Eastern Division, and they are the Baltimore Orioles.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Mark Reynolds

2B            Brian Roberts

SS            J.J. Hardy

3B            Josh Bell

LF            Nolan Reimold

CF            Adam Jones

RF            Nick Markakis

C            Matt Wieters

DH            Chris Davis

Projected Starting Rotation:

Jake Arrieta

Tommy Hunter

Zach Britton

Brian Matusz

Wei-Yin Chen

Projected Batting Order:

2B            Brian Roberts

CF            Adam Jones

RF            Nick Markakis

C            Matt Wieters

1B            Mark Reynolds

DH            Chris Davis

LF            Nolan Reimold

SS            J.J. Hardy

3B            Josh Bell

The Orioles of 2011 were similar to the Orioles of 2010, 2009, and essentially every year before that from the time Cal Ripken Jr. left the diamond.  At 69-93, they had the third worst record in the AL, good enough for last in the mighty AL East.  This team has consistently been fielding sub-500 squads and most years are bad enough to field teams that lose at least 90 games.  They don’t have the money to roll with the big boys in their division, but that excuse has lost traction after the Blue Jays and Rays have had much more success with actually the inverse amount of money.  (The Rays have had greater success than the Blue Jays, but have less money to spend).  So there are problems in Baltimore that have no easy fix.  But after 14 straight losing seasons, something is wrong with the culture of baseball in Baltimore.  It starts at the top with Peter Angelos, considered one of the worst owners in baseball.  His heavy hand has pushed many general managers away, and their new GM for this season, Dan Duquette, was pretty far down their list of desired candidates.  That list included Jerry Dipoto, who opted to take the Anaheim Angels position, and an assistant GM in Toronto, Tony LaCava, who actually chose to stay an assistant in Toronto rather than take the head job in Baltimore.  (Ouch)   For more about the Orioles offseason and the GM/owner issues, I would suggest Jeff Passan’s great article for Yahoosports that can be found here: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AtpPwTBvZGlVPEHr8dpxF2YHU84F?slug=jp-passan_hot_stove_daily_orioles_angelos_011212.  The long and short of it is Baltimore has a bad reputation in baseball.  They couldn’t get Mark Teixeira, a Baltimore native, to play there even after offering him a huge contract.  Free agents don’t want to go to Baltimore.  And until the culture there changes, I can’t imagine a reversal of the Orioles’ fortunes in the near future. 

Last year’s team had pieces of an offense.  Strong pieces.  They were decent in the first month of the season, and people thought they might finally be putting something into place.  But the hitters slowed down and the pitching fell apart, just in time for them to start playing their division rivals and getting slaughtered.  Departed DH Vladmir Guerrero led the team with a 290 AVG.  Of the remaining Orioles, Nick Markakis is the leader in AVG at 284.  That AVG came with 15 HR, 73 RBI and 72 R for the right fielder who is considered one of the best players currently calling Camden Yards home.  However, he’s not the superstar they envisioned him becoming when they gave him his big contract.  Mark Reynolds led the team with 37 HR and 86 RBI.  But we all know the book on Reynolds.  That power comes with a low AVG (221 last season) and one of the highest K rates in the MLB (196 last season).  He’s slotted to play first base this season, after splitting time between first and third last year.  For my money I might have him at third base with Chris Davis at first, enabling either Wilson Betemit or Endy Chavez to play every day.  (Betemit as DH, Chavez in left moving Reimold to DH).  Davis came to the Orioles part way through last season in a trade with the Rangers.  In a combined 59 games for Baltimore and Texas he hit 266 with 5 HR and 19 RBI.  He’s had limited success since being called up to the MLB in 2008.  Playing mainly first base (though he also has third base eligibility giving Buck Showalter a million different lineup options) his most successful season was in 2009 when he played in 113 games hitting 24 HR but coupling that with a 238 AVG.  He’s expected to get some time at first and DH this year, and is a high-risk high reward candidate who can provide some serious power to this Oriole team.  To add to this team’s corner infield influx (Mark Reynolds plays first and third, Chris Davis plays first, third, and will probably DH, Josh Bell plays third, Mark Antonelli plays second and third and Wilson Betemit plays first, third, short, second and will DH), youngster Josh Bell (you know, one of the guys from the last of my many parenthetical asides) is slotted to get a lot of playing time at third this season.  Bell played in only 26 games last season, hitting 164 with 6 RBI.  The year before he played in 53 games with a 214 AVG and 3 HR and 12 RBI.  He hasn’t hit well enough to cement the starting job, and if he doesn’t hit this year, then there are about a million guys on the roster waiting to take over for him.  Staying on that side of the infield we have J.J. Hardy, who had a pretty good season last year hitting 269 with 30 HR, 80 RBI and 76 R.  He’s been streaky his whole career since being called up in 2005.  But he was an All Star in Milwaukee in 2008, hitting 283 with 24 HR and 74 RBI.  The year before saw 26 HR and 80 RBI to go with a 277 AVG.  He plays a good defensive shortstop and bounced back from a weak 2010 with 30 HRs last season.  He may be streaky, but he gets his numbers in the end.  The final piece of this infield is longtime Oriole Brian Roberts, who just hasn’t been able to stay healthy lately.  His last healthy season was 2009, when he hit 283 with 30 SBs and 110 R.  When healthy, he was one of the best leadoff men in the game, consistently hitting in the high 200s, with an OBP over 350 (career high 378 in 2008), averaging close to 40 SBs a season (career high 50 in 2007), and a lock for 100 R every season.  But since getting a concussion in 2010, he’s played in less than 100 games over the last two seasons, playing in a career low 39 games last season with a 221 AVG, 6 SBs and only 18 R.  If he can get healthy he should be a force at the top of the lineup (though at age 34 his speed may be declining).  Otherwise the Orioles will continue to struggle to score runs.  Catcher Matt Wieters is one of the best in the AL.  He’s improved every season and last year continued hitting 262 with 22 HR, 68 RBI and 72 R.  He’s a smart hitter with great raw talent who is still getting better.  Based on his current rate of improvement, we could see a 280 AVG with 30 HR and 100 RBI this season.  The last part of this offense is the outfield which features a star in Adam Jones (280 with 25 HR, 83 RBI, and 12 SB) the aforementioned Nick Markakis and a combination of third year player Nolan Reimold (247 with 13 HR, 45 RBI, 40 R and 7 SB in 83 games) and Endy Chavez (301 AVG, 5 HR, 27 RBI, 37 R and 10 SB in 83 games last season).  And they just recently signed Nick Johnson to a contract because the one thing this team needed is another corner infielder.  (Sarcasm)  There are a million different ways to put together this lineup (personally I put Chris Davis at first, Mark Reynolds at third, Endy Chavez in left and Nolan Reimold as DH), and there are plenty of good, talented young hitters who can help this lineup contend offensively. 

As good as this team looks with the bats, it looks like it’ll struggle on the bump.  The ace of this team from last year was Jeremy Guthrie, but he’s no longer with the team.  In a move that some consider financially motivated, (Guthrie was up for arbitration and the Orioles sent him away before his hearing came up) Guthrie was sent to Colorado for Jason Hammel.  Guthrie led the team with a 4.33 ERA and 130 Ks.  Neither number is spectacular and both help paint a picture of the Orioles pitching struggles last season.  The one piece of good news in the rotation last season was rookie Zach Britton, who started 28 games and led the team with 11 Wins.  He wasn’t an ace (11 Losses, 4.61 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 276 BAA), but he was solid and second on the team with 154 IP (behind Guthrie at 200).  He’ll probably be the ace of 2012.  (Ouch)  After him, we have former Ranger Tommy Hunter.  Hunter came over to the club halfway through last season with Chris Davis.  Hunter was hurt last year, and due to Texas’ wealth of starting options found himself in the bullpen for the only 8 games he played in Arlington.  But he made 11 starts in Baltimore after the trade, going 3-3 with a 5.06 ERA.  He obviously struggled giving up 88 hits in only 69 IP.  Opponents hit 305 against him.  Hunter had success in the past few years, with a 13-4 record in 2010 and 9-6 in 2009.  His best season had a 3.73 ERA in a hitter’s park in Texas.  In fact, he was 1-1 in his 8 games in Arlington last season with a 2.93 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and a 218 BAA.  Not sure why he struggled so much at Camden, but his ceiling is obviously pretty high and they are hoping that he can rediscover some of that Texas magic.  If he can he may end up being the ace of this young staff.  Jake Arrieta is the next pitcher in the rotation.  In his second full season in Baltimore last year he went 10-8 with a 5.05 ERA.  He had some bad luck in his 28 starts, giving up a decent amount of runs, but holding hitters to a 253 BAA.  If he wants to improve on that ERA he has to walk a few less (59 BBs in 119 IP).  But he’s at least got some experience under his belt and comes back in as the third starter on this club.  After those three guys, there are a lot of different pitchers looking to break the starting 5.  Brian Matusz bombed last season going 1-9 in 12 starts with a horrid 10.69 ERA and a 372 BAA.  However he’s still in the mix for this starting rotation.  Taiwanese free agent Wei-Yin Chen has a good chance to break into the rotation this season.  He’s got a low-mid 90s fastball that he commands well and a good mid-80’s slider that he doesn’t command quite as well.  A Japanese free agent Tsuyoshi Wada also has a good shot to make the rotation.  With those two there is long time Oriole Chris Tillman, who only made 13 starts last season, going 3-5.  Tillman has been decidedly subpar in his 3 seasons in the majors, with an ERA north of 5 every season.  If he wants to start he needs to get it done this season.  And the last piece of this starting puzzle is new Oriole Jason Hammel.  You have to like his chances to make the rotation as he started 27 games last season for the Rockies.  He had 3 years of starting experience in Coors field, not to mention some starts in Tampa Bay.  He struggled last season going 7-13 with a 4.76 ERA.   However, that makes him a relative star in Baltimore and he has a good chance to make the rotation. In the end, Baltimore has a lot of arms, but none of them are proven.  They don’t pitch well, and they play in a division with some monster bats.  Their bullpen isn’t much better.  Matt Lindstrom and Alfredo Simon are solid and Kevin Gregg has experience at closer (not good experience, but experience).  The bottom line is the Orioles don’t pitch well in either the bullpen or starting rotation.  That’s going to hurt them next year, and every year for the foreseeable future until they can improve.

2012 Outlook…The Baltimore Orioles play in the toughest division in baseball.  They are the worst team in that division.  They don’t have the money to compete with the Red Sox or Yankees, but the Rays and Blue Jays have succeeded without those big salaries.  They have a young, talented group of hitters, but lots of struggling arms.  Pitching wins championships, and until the Orioles can pitch better, they won’t be winning any division titles.  They have a bad reputation in baseball and it will take them a while to overcome that.  Until they do, they will have to improve from within, using their farm system to produce some major league pitching.  I don’t see it happening for them this season, and they will probably continue to struggle in 2012.   

Up next...Boston Red Sox.