Thursday, February 9, 2012


Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

Arizona Diamondbacks:            Staying in the NL, we move to the NL West and the first team there (alphabetically) is the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Lyle Overbay
2B            Aaron Hill
SS            Stephen Drew
3B            Ryan Roberts
LF            Jason Kubel
CF            Chris Young
RF            Justin Upton
C              Miguel Montero


Projected Starting Rotation:

Ian Kennedy
Daniel Hudson
Trevor Cahill
Joe Saunders
Josh Collmenter

Projected Batting Order:

3B            Ryan Roberts
SS            Stephen Drew
RF            Justin Upton
C              Miguel Montero
CF            Chris Young
LF            Jason Kubel
1B            Lyle Overbay
2B            Aaron Hill

The Diamondbacks surprised everyone winning the NL West in manager Kirk Gibson’s first full season.  The big surprise was a group of young pitchers that played incredibly well and pitched better than anyone expected.  They led a group of young hitters who came into their own last season.  As exciting as winning the NL West was for Arizona fans last season, they have to be even more excited to see their team reach that success with so many young players.  In fact, there were so many young guys on this team last year, you wonder if they were spraying sparkling cider on each other after clinching the division.  The leader of this young offense was Justin Upton.  He led the team in all of the major categories, hitting 289 with 31 HR and 88 RBI.  He also led the team in runs (105), hits (171) and was second on the team in steals (21).  This guy does it all.  In addition he played in 159 games and led the team with 592 ABs.  Upton is a star and looks poised to lead the team again this season, at age 25.  But he wasn’t alone out there.  His outfield companion, Chris Young, also made the 20/20 club, slugging 20 HR and leading the team with 22 stolen bases.  That did come with a paltry 236 AVG, but he contributed in almost every other category, driving in 71 runs and scoring 89 times.  In addition to those two, the team had two other players flirt with the 20/20 mark as young third baseman Ryan Roberts had 19 HRs and 18 SBs and departed second baseman Kelly Johnson had 18 HRs and 13 SBs.  Roberts was a pleasant surprise.  And while Johnson started out strong, he was having troubles down the stretch and eventually he was sent to Toronto for Aaron Hill in a trade of struggling second basemen.  When Hill arrived, he turned it around and in 33 games hit 315 with 2 HR, 16 RBI, 39 R and 5 SB.  If he can play like that next season, he will give the Diamondbacks even more depth behind Upton, Young and Roberts.  Roberts is kind of a question as he had his best season in his 5-year career in 2011, his first season as a starter.  But if it wasn’t a fluke, then this team is truly frightening to behold.  And we haven’t even mentioned the incredibly talented Stephen Drew, All Star Miguel Montero and new additions Jason Kubel and Lyle Overbay.  Catcher Miguel Montero had an incredible season, hitting 286 with 18 HR, 86 RBI and 65 R.  He’s one of the top catchers in the league along with Brian McCann, Yadier Molina and Buster Posey.  Stephen Drew has been hyped for years.  And while he’s never blossomed into a super star, he has been incredibly consistent and a boon to this team.  Injuries limited him to 86 games last year.  But in a healthy season he’s pretty much a lock for 270, 12-15 HR, 60-70 RBI, 70-80 R and 10-15 SB.  And he plays fantastic defense.  With Drew and Hill, Arizona may have one of the best up the middle infields in the league.  That leads us to the new guys, Kubel and Overbay.  Overbay joined the team in the middle of last season.  He was struggling with the Pirates, but picked it up a bit for the D’backs hitting 286 in 18 Games with 1 HR and 10 RBI.  His defense is awful and his bat is slowing down after last year’s down season.  But he’s just a placeholder.  In fact, he may not be the starter when opening day rolls around.  Paul Goldschmidt really impressed in his major league call-up.  In only 156 ABs, he hit 250 with 8 HR, 26 RBI and 28 R.  He’s the first baseman of the future after mashing at Double and Triple A.  He was the minor league player of the year last season, and was leading the minors with 30 HR at the time of his call-up.  He got a hit in his first at bat and his first homer came in his second game against Tim Lincecum.  He can hit the daylights out of the ball, and after a strong postseason that included a grand slam in Game 3 of the NLDS, he has a great shot at taking the starting job in spring training.  I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that he will be the starter at some point in the 2011 season.  The last piece of this offensive puzzle is former twin Jason Kubel.  He takes over in left for Gerardo Parra, who played pretty well in almost a full season of work.  Parra hit 292 with 8 HR, 46 RBI and 15 SBs.  He’ll be a defensive upgrade and bat off the bench.  But Arizona wanted a veteran with a little more power, which is what led them to Kubel.  Last season, Kubel was limited to 99 games.  But he played well hitting 273 with 12 HR and 58 RBI.  His last two healthy seasons saw over 20 HR and 90 RBI, with a career best 28 HR and 103 RBI in 2009.  If he can swing a hot bat like that the D’backs will have the best offense in the NL West.  Essentially all of their starters except for Aaron Hill have 20 HR power, and 5 of them can threaten for 20 SBs.  This is a multi-dimensional team with a lot of youth.  And nobody wants to pitch to them.

So there are plenty of young teams out there with strong offenses.  What made the Diamondbacks so successful in 2011?  Their young pitching staff.  Ian Kennedy met all the expectations heaped upon him from years in the Yankees organization last season, when he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA and 198 Ks.  He led the team in all those categories.  In addition he had an incredible WHIP (1.09) and the type of BAA (227) that lets you know that this wasn’t a fluke.  He threw 222 brilliant innings, earning himself an .840 winning percentage and 4th place in the Cy Young voting.  This was a break out year, but we can expect similar results in 2012.  His BABIP was manageable at 273 and he struck out about 8 guys per 9 innings.  His stuff is great and he’s settled in to his role as the ace of this Arizona staff.  20 Wins may not be guaranteed next season (though I wouldn’t be surprised) but with his stuff, his team, and the rest of the division he’ll face, he should be a lock for 15 Wins if he’s healthy as well as a low ERA and well above average Ks.  The other young ace was Daniel Hudson.  In his third season, he tied Kennedy with 222 IP.  And those innings were fantastic, especially for someone his age.  He went 16-12 with a 3.49 ERA and 169 Ks.  His WHIP and BAA were solid as well and he looked a lot older and more polished than his resume would show.  They are excited about this youngster, who looked solid when he joined the team in 2010 coming from the White Sox.  He went 7-1 for them the remainder of that year, and he picked up where he left off.  It’s certainly plausible that he’ll have a bit of a drop off, especially at his age.  But his stuff is great and I think he’ll have another successful season in the desert in 2012.  Newly re-signed innings eater Joe Saunders is returning to the team after another solid campaign in 2011.  He went 12-13, but tied Hudson and Kennedy for the team lead with 222 innings.  In addition, he had a respectable 3.69 ERA.  He goes out there and gets groundballs and gives the bullpen a break.  He’s also a rare veteran on this young team.  He’s not going to strike out a ton of guys or win any Cy Youngs, but he will keep the team in games and probably log double digit wins.  One of the few fears with this rotation is that they may provide the bullpen with too much rest as the D’backs had three starters with over 220 IP in 2011.  Josh Collmenter was the number 4 starter last season, going 10-10 in 24 games.  And his numbers were fantastic.  He had a 3.38 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and a 237 BAA.  That’s spectacular, especially for a fourth starter.  It’s amazing he didn’t have a winning record. But after that fantastic season, he’s actually looking at getting demoted to the 5th starter role.  So if he was the 4th starter last season and has dropped to 5th for 2012, who got added to the rotation?  That would be Trevor Cahill, who projects as the number 3 guy, pitching between Daniel Hudson and Joe Saunders.  Cahill had a bit of a down season last year.  But he did set career highs in IP (207) and Ks (147).  His 12-14 record wasn’t terrible, and neither was his 4.16 ERA.  And he’s only one year removed from his fantastic 2010 campaign that saw him go 18-8 with a 2.97 ERA.  Oakland is a great place to pitch, but he had little offensive support.  That shouldn’t be a problem in Arizona and clearly other pitchers have had success there.  Cahill has had 3 full seasons in the league, and won 10 games or more every year as well as logged 30 or more starts every season.   So they seem to have another pitcher that will eat innings and keep the team in games.  And Cahill is young with a very high ceiling.  This pitching staff is fantastic.  And they should set up for a strong bullpen featuring closer J.J. Putz and strong setup up men Takashi Saito and Brad Zeigler.  In all, this is a very good team.

2012 Prediction…This is a great young team.  They won the West last year, and have to be considered favorites for the division crown this year.  I like them to win the west this season and be a strong competitor for years down the road.  They are young, they are talented, and they are all multi-dimensional players.  I would be shocked if I didn’t see this team in the playoffs in 2012.

Up next…Colorado Rockies.

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