Hot Stove: A rundown of each team in the offseason
and what they are looking to improve in 2012.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Staying
in the NL, we move to the NL West and the first team there (alphabetically) is
the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Projected Starting
Lineup:
1B Lyle
Overbay
2B Aaron
Hill
SS Stephen
Drew
3B Ryan
Roberts
LF Jason
Kubel
CF Chris
Young
RF Justin
Upton
C Miguel
Montero
Projected Starting
Rotation:
Ian Kennedy
Daniel Hudson
Trevor Cahill
Joe Saunders
Josh Collmenter
Projected Batting
Order:
3B Ryan
Roberts
SS Stephen
Drew
RF Justin
Upton
C Miguel
Montero
CF Chris
Young
LF Jason
Kubel
1B Lyle
Overbay
2B Aaron
Hill
The Diamondbacks surprised everyone winning the NL West in
manager Kirk Gibson’s first full season.
The big surprise was a group of young pitchers that played incredibly
well and pitched better than anyone expected. They led a group of young hitters who came into their own
last season. As exciting as
winning the NL West was for Arizona fans last season, they have to be even more
excited to see their team reach that success with so many young players. In fact, there were so many young guys
on this team last year, you wonder if they were spraying sparkling cider on
each other after clinching the division.
The leader of this young offense was Justin Upton. He led the team in all of the major
categories, hitting 289 with 31 HR and 88 RBI. He also led the team in runs (105), hits (171) and was
second on the team in steals (21).
This guy does it all. In
addition he played in 159 games and led the team with 592 ABs. Upton is a star and looks poised to
lead the team again this season, at age 25. But he wasn’t alone out there. His outfield companion, Chris Young, also made the 20/20
club, slugging 20 HR and leading the team with 22 stolen bases. That did come with a paltry 236 AVG,
but he contributed in almost every other category, driving in 71 runs and
scoring 89 times. In addition to
those two, the team had two other players flirt with the 20/20 mark as young
third baseman Ryan Roberts had 19 HRs and 18 SBs and departed second baseman
Kelly Johnson had 18 HRs and 13 SBs.
Roberts was a pleasant surprise.
And while Johnson started out strong, he was having troubles down the
stretch and eventually he was sent to Toronto for Aaron Hill in a trade of
struggling second basemen. When
Hill arrived, he turned it around and in 33 games hit 315 with 2 HR, 16 RBI, 39
R and 5 SB. If he can play like
that next season, he will give the Diamondbacks even more depth behind Upton,
Young and Roberts. Roberts is kind
of a question as he had his best season in his 5-year career in 2011, his first
season as a starter. But if it
wasn’t a fluke, then this team is truly frightening to behold. And we haven’t even mentioned the
incredibly talented Stephen Drew, All Star Miguel Montero and new additions
Jason Kubel and Lyle Overbay. Catcher
Miguel Montero had an incredible season, hitting 286 with 18 HR, 86 RBI and 65
R. He’s one of the top catchers in
the league along with Brian McCann, Yadier Molina and Buster Posey. Stephen Drew has been hyped for
years. And while he’s never
blossomed into a super star, he has been incredibly consistent and a boon to
this team. Injuries limited him to
86 games last year. But in a
healthy season he’s pretty much a lock for 270, 12-15 HR, 60-70 RBI, 70-80 R
and 10-15 SB. And he plays
fantastic defense. With Drew and
Hill, Arizona may have one of the best up the middle infields in the
league. That leads us to the new
guys, Kubel and Overbay. Overbay
joined the team in the middle of last season. He was struggling with the Pirates, but picked it up a bit
for the D’backs hitting 286 in 18 Games with 1 HR and 10 RBI. His defense is awful and his bat is
slowing down after last year’s down season. But he’s just a placeholder. In fact, he may not be the starter when opening day rolls
around. Paul Goldschmidt really
impressed in his major league call-up.
In only 156 ABs, he hit 250 with 8 HR, 26 RBI and 28 R. He’s the first baseman of the future
after mashing at Double and Triple A.
He was the minor league player of the year last season, and was leading
the minors with 30 HR at the time of his call-up. He got a hit in his first at bat and his first homer came in
his second game against Tim Lincecum.
He can hit the daylights out of the ball, and after a strong postseason
that included a grand slam in Game 3 of the NLDS, he has a great shot at taking
the starting job in spring training.
I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that he will be the starter at some
point in the 2011 season. The last
piece of this offensive puzzle is former twin Jason Kubel. He takes over in left for Gerardo
Parra, who played pretty well in almost a full season of work. Parra hit 292 with 8 HR, 46 RBI and 15
SBs. He’ll be a defensive upgrade
and bat off the bench. But Arizona
wanted a veteran with a little more power, which is what led them to
Kubel. Last season, Kubel was
limited to 99 games. But he played
well hitting 273 with 12 HR and 58 RBI.
His last two healthy seasons saw over 20 HR and 90 RBI, with a career
best 28 HR and 103 RBI in 2009. If
he can swing a hot bat like that the D’backs will have the best offense in the
NL West. Essentially all of their
starters except for Aaron Hill have 20 HR power, and 5 of them can threaten for
20 SBs. This is a
multi-dimensional team with a lot of youth. And nobody wants to pitch to them.
So there are plenty of young teams out there with strong
offenses. What made the Diamondbacks
so successful in 2011? Their young
pitching staff. Ian Kennedy met
all the expectations heaped upon him from years in the Yankees organization
last season, when he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA and 198 Ks. He led the team in all those
categories. In addition he had an
incredible WHIP (1.09) and the type of BAA (227) that lets you know that this
wasn’t a fluke. He threw 222
brilliant innings, earning himself an .840 winning percentage and 4th
place in the Cy Young voting. This
was a break out year, but we can expect similar results in 2012. His BABIP was manageable at 273 and he
struck out about 8 guys per 9 innings.
His stuff is great and he’s settled in to his role as the ace of this
Arizona staff. 20 Wins may not be
guaranteed next season (though I wouldn’t be surprised) but with his stuff, his
team, and the rest of the division he’ll face, he should be a lock for 15 Wins
if he’s healthy as well as a low ERA and well above average Ks. The other young ace was Daniel
Hudson. In his third season, he
tied Kennedy with 222 IP. And
those innings were fantastic, especially for someone his age. He went 16-12 with a 3.49 ERA and 169
Ks. His WHIP and BAA were solid as
well and he looked a lot older and more polished than his resume would
show. They are excited about this
youngster, who looked solid when he joined the team in 2010 coming from the
White Sox. He went 7-1 for them
the remainder of that year, and he picked up where he left off. It’s certainly plausible that he’ll
have a bit of a drop off, especially at his age. But his stuff is great and I think he’ll have another
successful season in the desert in 2012.
Newly re-signed innings eater Joe Saunders is returning to the team
after another solid campaign in 2011.
He went 12-13, but tied Hudson and Kennedy for the team lead with 222
innings. In addition, he had a
respectable 3.69 ERA. He goes out
there and gets groundballs and gives the bullpen a break. He’s also a rare veteran on this young
team. He’s not going to strike out
a ton of guys or win any Cy Youngs, but he will keep the team in games and
probably log double digit wins. One
of the few fears with this rotation is that they may provide the bullpen with
too much rest as the D’backs had three starters with over 220 IP in 2011. Josh Collmenter was the number 4
starter last season, going 10-10 in 24 games. And his numbers were fantastic. He had a 3.38 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and a 237 BAA. That’s spectacular, especially for a
fourth starter. It’s amazing he
didn’t have a winning record. But after that fantastic season, he’s actually
looking at getting demoted to the 5th starter role. So if he was the 4th starter
last season and has dropped to 5th for 2012, who got added to the
rotation? That would be Trevor
Cahill, who projects as the number 3 guy, pitching between Daniel Hudson and
Joe Saunders. Cahill had a bit of
a down season last year. But he
did set career highs in IP (207) and Ks (147). His 12-14 record wasn’t terrible, and neither was his 4.16
ERA. And he’s only one year
removed from his fantastic 2010 campaign that saw him go 18-8 with a 2.97
ERA. Oakland is a great place to
pitch, but he had little offensive support. That shouldn’t be a problem in Arizona and clearly other
pitchers have had success there.
Cahill has had 3 full seasons in the league, and won 10 games or more
every year as well as logged 30 or more starts every season. So they seem to have another
pitcher that will eat innings and keep the team in games. And Cahill is young with a very high
ceiling. This pitching staff is
fantastic. And they should set up
for a strong bullpen featuring closer J.J. Putz and strong setup up men Takashi
Saito and Brad Zeigler. In all,
this is a very good team.
2012 Prediction…This is a great young team. They won the West last year, and have
to be considered favorites for the division crown this year. I like them to win the west this season
and be a strong competitor for years down the road. They are young, they are talented, and they are all
multi-dimensional players. I would
be shocked if I didn’t see this team in the playoffs in 2012.
Up next…Colorado Rockies.
No comments:
Post a Comment