New York Yankees 2013 Team Breakdown

Well it’s that time.  A quarter of the season is done and I’m still doing team breakdowns.  Hooray procrastination.  But we are marching right along here.  I started with the AL West, knocked out the entire NL and have moved back to the junior circuit to examine the AL East.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the first team I’ll take a look at will be the New York Yankees.

Projected Starting Lineup

C-        Francisco Cervelli

1B-      Mark Teixeira

2B-      Robinson Cano

SS-       Derek Jeter

3B-      Kevin Youkilis

LF-       Brett Gardner

CF-      Curtis Granderson

RF-      Ichiro Suzuki

DH-     Travis Hafner

Starting Rotation:      C.C. Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Petite, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova

Bullpen:                      Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Boone Logan, Joba                                                      Chamberlain, Shawn Kelley, David Phelps, Cody Eppley

Projected Batting Order

LF-       Brett Gardner

SS-       Derek Jeter

2B-      Robinson Cano

1B-      Mark Teixeira

CF-      Curtis Granderson

3B-      Kevin Youkilis

DH-     Travis Hafner

C-        Francisco Cervelli

RF-      Ichiro Suzuki

The Yankees are a bit of a mess this season.  In addition to fielding one of the oldest and most expensive teams in baseball, the rest of their division has gotten younger, while keeping their payroll much lower and, frankly, now look better than the once mighty “evil empire”.  And, perhaps most importantly, they have had an incredible rash of injuries to start the year.  Now, injuries are a bit of a freak thing, but no one can argue that the age of the Yankees makes their players more susceptible to injury, and the lack of quality players being developed in their minor league system left them largely without capable backups.  The lineup I listed above won’t play together for a while.  The first move the Yankees made was to sign veteran Kevin Youkilis (off one of the worst seasons of his career) to a 1-year deal to replace A-Rod, who will miss AT LEAST half the season to hip surgery, though he could be gone for the whole year.  Not his first hip surgery btw.  They then re-upped Andy Petite and Hiroki Kuroda to 1-year deals and signed another aging veteran in Travis Hafner to take over the DH duties.  None of these moves saved them any money or made them any younger.  Then, the injuries came.  Derek Jeter, who was lost in the playoffs to a horrific ankle injury, is coming back slower than expected and started the season on the DL.  Curtis Granderson broke his right forearm early in spring training and is missing the first month and a half of the season.  And Mark Teixeira partially tore a tendon sheath in his right wrist.  I don’t know what it means, but if he needs surgery he’ll miss a lot of time.  Right now he doesn’t, but as I understand it’s a tricky injury, and even if all goes well he won’t be back until mid-May.  The point is, the Yankees are very old and fragile and have cobbled together a lineup of castaways to hold things over until the starters return.  They signed free agent Lyle Overbay (who was unable to find work to this point) to play first.  They also contacted the retired Chipper Jones and Derek Lee, but were re-buffed.  Youkilis will also play some first while Eduardo Nunez fills in at short and third.  (Though, as of this writing, Nunez was hit by a pitch and is day to day).  In the outfield, Brett Gardner will slide over to left and a committee of Brennan Boesch (who was cut by Detroit) and Vernon Wells (the man believed to be the most overpaid player in the game who the Yankees traded for) will rotate in left.  Essentially, this lineup, which has lost luster even when healthy, looks extremely barren until the middle of May.

The Captain, Derek Jeter was the team leader in hitting last year with a 316 AVG.  Jeter also chipped in 15 HR and 99 R to lead this club to a division title.  However after his injury in the playoffs, he expected to be back for the beginning of the season, but wasn’t ready.  Then when he got to rehab, he rushed it.  As a result he had a setback and won’t re-join the team until at least August.  He’s getting older each season, and his wheels dwindled even before the ankle injury.  He continues to surprise people, but another season of 15 HR or double-digit stolen bases will be just about impossible with 2/3s of the season missed.  300 is a possibility, but I don’t expect any more than 40 R.  The HR leader for the pinstriped gang was Curtis Granderson with 43.  He also led the team with 106 RBI.  He primarily hit 2^nd, which was pretty dumb.  The 232 AVG pretty much precludes him from the upper third of the lineup, and that short porch at the new Yankee stadium has made him one-dimensional.  Assuming he comes back fully healthy in May I think we will see 30 HR and 80 RBI to go with a small AVG and a handful of steals.  This should be the year that Girardi moves him into the middle of the order (5^th or 6^th) as there are no longer any delusions that he can hit for AVG and steal bags.  The best hitter on this team is Robinson Cano who hit 313 last season with 33 HR, 94 RBI and 105 R.  The only thing this guy doesn’t do is steal bases.  He’s got a great glove at second and is now the unquestioned leader on this club.  He’s pretty much the only Yankee currently healthy who can hit for power.  And if the Yankees have any hope of making the postseason, he has to have another huge year, especially early on.  The Yankees lost 112 HR with the departures of Russell Martin, Raul Ibanez, Andruw Jones, Eric Chavez, Alex Rodriguez (who will be gone a long time), and Nick Swisher.  Add in the loss of Teixeira and Granderson and that total climbs to 179.  This team doesn’t hit with runners on, can’t manufacture many runs and is looking very old and mortal.  Cano is the only hope to keep them in contention.  If he performs well (and he should in a walk year) think 310 with 35 HR, 110 RBI and 100 R.  Who’s left?  Well Teixeira will eventually be back at first after a season of 251/24/84/66.  You worry about his numbers dropping as he gets older and with this injury.  Recent history hasn’t been kind to the Gold Glover.  Think 250 again with only 15 HR and 70 RBI in limited ABs.  The only other returning Yankees from last season are in the outfield and behind the plate.  And none of them were full time for different reasons.  Francisco Cervelli will be the starting catcher.  He was hitless in 3 games last year.  Brett Gardner will be back in the outfield.  He was originally slated to move back to left when Granderson returned, but he’s played so well defensively that Girardi will move Granderson to a corner.  He will likely be the full-time leadoff man this year, though you never know with Girardi’s endless tinkering.  He only appeared in 16 games last year, but did hit 323.  It was a nice start before a season lost to injury.  In his last healthy season (2011) he hit 259 with 49 SBs.  They think he can be a top of the order bat, but he’s got to get on base more and raise that AVG.  I think he’ll be solid, if unspectacular.  Think 270 with 30 SBs and 75 R.  And in right the Yankees have brought back Ichiro Suzuki.  After trading for the veteran late last year, they watched him take over the team lead in SBs with 14 in 67 games.  He also hit 322 with 5 HR.  I think he would be a great number 2 hitter, especially in the beginning of the year with all those injuries, but that’s just me.  He may hit 9^th, which in the AL is where you put your backup leadoff candidate.  His age is not a strength, and people point to his struggles in Seattle as proof that he’s over the hill (261 with 15 SB in 95 games).  But it’s important to remember that the Mariners wanted him to hit 3^rd, slugging HR and try to drive in runs.  Despite his impressive BP power displays, it didn’t translate and that accounted for most of his struggles.  He still had 178 hits last season and 29 SBs.  I see him hitting in the 280-300 range with 10 HR, 60 RBI, 70 R and 25 SBs.  Not as illustrious as we are used to from him, but strong for a 9^th hitter.  That covers all the returning offensive pieces.  How about the new guys?  Kevin Youkilis was signed to play at least half a season of third base (probably more).  The thought was when A-Rod did come back, Youk would become part of the DH rotation, taking his spot DHing but also playing first and third when it was A-Rod or Teixeira’s turn to DH.  In that way, he’d probably get about 500 ABs for the Yankees.  Last year was Youk’s worst season, hitting 235.  He did have 19 HR and 60 RBI in only 122 games, but there is concern he’s been on the decline, especially since he hasn’t reached 140 games since 2008.  His HR totals have dropped every season from 08 to 2011, though he went from 17 in 2011 to 19 in 2012.  So we’ll see what he’s got left in the tank.  The fact is, the Yankees needed a third baseman.  And their lack of talent in the minors dictated that they pay an aging veteran $10 million dollars this year to not even play a full season.  It’s the Yankee way.  (PS, Youkilis is currently on the DL).  The other full-time starter in the Bronx is DH Travis Hafner.  Hafner signed a huge contract to DH in Cleveland, then was hurt for most of the contracted time.  Finally free from that contract, he seemed like a prime candidate to be a Yankee.  He signed a much smaller contract this time, though he wasn’t expected to go higher than about 450 ABs.  Injuries may change that, and Yankees fans hope they will see the Hafner of old, though no one has seen that since about 2007.  He hit 228 last year with 12 HR in 66 games.  The year before he hit 280 with 13 HR in 94 games.  He’s becoming more one dimensional, and as a lefty in that little league stadium I’d be surprised if Hafner DIDN’T try to hit it out of the park every time up.  I’m thinking anything over 240 would be a surprise, but 20 HR wouldn’t be.  What else is new in Yankee land?  The current left fielders and first baseman.  In left we have Brennan Boesch, Vernon Wells and Ben Francisco.  Boesch was cut by Detroit after hitting 240 with 12 HR and 54 RBI last year.  It was really a bad spring and depth that led to the youngster’s release. He has recently been sent down to the minors.  Instead of letting young Boesch find his way on a team sorely in need of youth, the Yankees instead traded for Vernon Wells, who was making $20+ million to sit on the Angels bench.  Wells has been one of the highest paid busts since Barry Zito and Alfonso Soriano came into existence.  He hit 230 last year with 11 HR and 29 RBI in 77 games.  He was generally the odd man out in the Angels outfield with Bourjous, Hunter and Trout starting and Trumbo and Morales DHing.  The Angels lost Hunter and Morales this year, but brought in Josh Hamilton.  With Trout, Hamilton and Bourjous starting, there was no spot for Wells since Trumbo would DH.  They were begging a team to step in and take on the worst contract in the game.  The Yankees happily obliged, taking on $11.5 million of the 21 million he’s owed this year and being on the hook for $2.4 million of his contract next year.  Now, $11.5 million of a $42 million contract may seem like a drop in the hat, but no one else was willing to trade for this guy so the Angels were going to eat it.  Now the Yankees are paying for about a quarter of it, and have to hope that he doesn’t reach 400 ABs if their starters come back healthy.  Few teams would approach $10 million for a backup, but the Yankees have 2 (depending on what you consider Youkilis to be).  At least they’re consistent.  What do I expect of Wells?  Well the last time he reached 130 games he hit 218 with 25 HR and 66 RBI.  I’m thinking 220 this year, with 18 HR.  Everyone can hit ‘em in the new Yankee stadium, but that doesn’t make them a strong offensive player.  He’ll barely be worth $5 million, much less the $9.5 the Yanks will give him.  Ben Francisco will back him up.  He’s a 31 year old career backup who hasn’t done much in the big leagues and has done even less so far this season.  And Lyle Overbay is a complete mystery.  He’s hit 267 with 3 HR since 2011.  He will likely get fewer ABs than anyone (assuming Tex is healthy), but any lefty can pop double digit HRs in 150 ABs with the Yanks.  Think, 230 with 5 HR.  The summation of this is the Yankees will pay a lot of different guys a lot of money to get very little offensive support.  This team couldn’t hit with runners on last year, waiting instead for the 3 run homer to bail them out.  That won’t be coming this year, and I see this offense struggling.  They will always hit a lot of HR, but I see their R numbers and team AVG plummeting and maybe leaving them outside of October baseball. 

The one area that looks okay for the Yanks is, interestingly, the pitching staff.  I have never thought of the Yankees as an organization that is a strong mound group, as developing pitchers takes years and patience, virtues that don’t come to mind when talking about the Bombers.  In fact, I read a great article by Jeff Passan discussing the Yankees lack of player development, specifically on the mound.  But for now, the Yankees have a pretty decent starting 5 going for them.  The ace of this staff is still C.C. Sabathia, and while he’s not quite the man he once was, he’s still one of the top pitchers in the game.  You generally think of a workhorse when he comes to mind, and that’s what he was last season.  He led the team in Ks (197) and was second in IP with 200.  He did miss a little time last year, for the first time in a long time, and made only 28 starts.  He still surpassed 200 IP and amassed 15 Wins to go with his solid 3.38 ERA.  He keeps guys off base (1.14 WHIP and 238 BAA) and wins a lot of games.  He’s past his prime, but as long as his velocity is not down significantly (he’s always been a slow starter) then there is nothing to worry about with this ace.  I think another 15 Win season with a sub-3.50 ERA and 200 IP/Ks is in the offing.  Arguably, the real ace last season was Hiroki Kuroda.  He led the team with 16 Wins, a 3.32 ERA and 219 IP last season in 33 starts with 3 complete games and 2 shutouts.  He was phenomenal.  No one thought he’d be this good.  He’s not overpowering as his 249 BAA and 167 Ks show.  But he doesn’t beat himself (1.17 WHIP) and keeps men from scoring.  I think to expect another season like this would be a mistake, but clearly Kuroda has what it takes to be a solid pitcher, even in the AL East.  Think 12 Wins with a 3.50 ERA and 180 IP.  Andy Petite came back to the diamond last season and was a welcome addition in pinstripes.  In 12 starts, he was 5-4 with a 2.87 ERA.  That’s fantastic.  His peripherals looked great (1.14 WHIP, 232 BAA) and he still had some good heat (69 Ks in 75 IP).  He slotted to be the number 3 starter again this year.  If he can stay healthy, we should see 25+ starts for the veteran with double-digit wins and an ERA around 3.25.  Phil Hughes is slotted to be the 4^th starter this year.  And you never know what to expect from him.  One year he wins 18 games.  The next he turns in an ERA over 5.  Last season was okay, but not great.  He did tie for the team lead with 16 Wins, but also had 13 Losses. His 4.23 ERA wasn’t great and both his BAA and WHIP were a bit higher than the league average.  Who knows what this season will bring?  But the Yankees would be happy with another season of double-digit wins and perhaps dropping that ERA closer to 4.  And he could break 200 IP this season.  The 5^th starter spot will go to Ivan Nova.  One of the few young players on this team, Nova endured some growing pains in his second season.  He still won 12 games in 28 starts, but had an ERA of 5.02.  Hitters hit 288 against him and his WHIP was nearly double the league average.  He’s still young and getting better, but the Yankees need him to play a lot better, or else he may lose that 5^th starter slot as the year progresses to another youngster, David Phelps.  The bullpen has always been solid since 1996ish.  The reason is because Mariano Rivera, the greatest closer of all time, has locked down the 9^th and the Yankees went from there.  But last season a tragic injury ended Rivera’s season after only 9 games.  He was great in those 9 games, going 5 for 6 in Save opportunities with a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.  Hiss BAA was 200 and he struck out 8 in 8 IP.  Nothing to be surprised about.  Rafael Soriano was fantastic in his relief, notching 42 Saves and turning in a 2.26 ERA.  But he turned that into a big deal to close in Washington, so the Rivera insurance policy is now gone.  The new insurance policy is likely set up man David Robertson.  He missed some time due to injury, but still pitched in 65 games to a 2.67 ERA with 81 Ks in 60 IP.  He’s a great setup man, and may be the closer of the future after Mariano calls it a career in this, his last season.  The rest of the bullpen is solid with Boone Logan, Joba Chamberlain, and Cody Eppley.  Young David Phelps is the long man who can spot start.  It’s not the best bullpen out there, but it’s solid.

2013 Prediction:

The Yankees are in a re-building mode.  However, they will never re-build due to an ill-conceived mission statement that states they will contend each year.  That’s not the way baseball works anymore, no matter how much money you have.  And at this point, that seems to be the only strength this organization has.  They need to get younger and start developing players.  Instead of throwing all that money at overpriced veterans whose best days are behind them (Wells, Hafner, Ichiro) perhaps they can spend that money on scouting and player development and learn to win games like most the other teams in the league.  For this season, the Yankees look like one of the worst teams in their division.  I would be surprised if they make the playoffs, especially seeing how good the Blue Jays got (I still believe in them), looking at the talent the Rays have, considering the Orioles success last season with essentially the same team and the Red Sox re-build a few steps ahead of New York’s.  I’m picking them to finish last.  Hopefully it will be a wake up call for Yankees fans to urge their team to change the way they go about their business.  If it is, then this team has enough resources to make this re-build very short.  But if they continue to chase the shortcut solutions, I don’t see this team being nearly as successful in this decade as it was in the last two.

Colorado Rockies 2013 Team Breakdown

Well it’s that time.  Baseball is in full swing.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I started with the AL West, then moved the NL East, NL Central and am now finishing up the NL West.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the last NL West team on my list is the Colorado Rockies.

Projected Starting Lineup

C-        Wilin Rosario

1B-      Todd Helton

2B-      Josh Rutledge

SS-      Troy Tulowitzki

3B-      Jordan Pacheco

LF-      Carlos Gonzalez

CF-      Dexter Fowler

RF-      Michael Cuddyer

Starting Rotation:      Jorge De La Rosa, Jhoulys Chacin, Juan Nicasio, Jeff Francis, Jon                                                 Garland

Bullpen:                      Rafael Betancourt, Matt Belisle, Wilton Lopez, Rex Brothers,                                           Edgmer Escalona, Adam Ottavino, Chris Volstad

Projected Batting Order

CF-      Dexter Fowler

2B-      Josh Rutledge

LF-      Carlos Gonzalez

SS-      Troy Tulowitzki

RF-      Michael Cuddyer

1B-      Todd Helton

C-        Wilin Roasrio

3B-      Jordan Pacheco

The Rockies had a tough season last year.  They were easily one of the worst teams in the big leagues.  Their hitters were stout, as always.  And any hitter who plays in Coors sees a nice offensive bump.  Similarly any pitcher that pitches in Coors sees their numbers fall a little bit.  Unfortunately for the Rockies, the pitchers they employ saw their numbers fall a lot, and those same pitchers were also bad on the road.  The simple fact is, these pitchers aren’t that good, no matter where they pitch. Until this team can learn how to pitch, then they won’t be winning any time soon.

The Rockies were, once again, one of the top offensive teams in baseball.  Part of it is their ballpark.  But the other part is management knowing that they play in an offensively minded park and building an offensive team that can exploit it.  They were great offensively in a year where their best offensive player, Troy Tulowitzki, missed the majority of the season with an injury.  Young Jordan Pacheco was the leading hitter for this team going 309 in 132 games.  He seems to be a singles hitter with little power (5 HR) or speed (7 SB) but there is nothing wrong with a guy who hits 300.  If he can keep that up over a full season (and he was close to full last year) then I think we may see a little more power and speed to go with solid R and RBI numbers.  The HR leader on this club was catcher Wilin Rosario who slugged 28 in only 117 games.  Very impressive, even in Coors Field.  He hit 270 with that power, driving in 71 and scoring 67.  If stops trying to steal bases (4 out of 9) then he’ll be in much better shape.  It’s a small sample size, but as he’s still hitting in a solid order in a great offensive ballpark, I think we can expect 30 HR in a full season, possibly more.  The best overall hitter on this team was Carlos Gonzalez, who is one of their best hitters even when Troy Tulowitzki is around.  He hit 303 with 22 HR, 85 RBI, 89 R and 20 SB.  He’s an all around monster, one of the best players in the game and is a core player in this order.  He hits third, one spot in front of Tulo and brings power, speed and a plus AVG.  I’d expect another season around 300 with 20+ HR, 80+ RBI, 85+ R and 15-20 SBs.  After Gonzalez, the Rockies really need healthy seasons from Tulo and Michael Cuddyer.  Tulo played in only 47 games with 8 HR and a 287 AVG.  If he returns to his norms, expect 280-300 with 20-25 HR, around 100 RBI, 80+ R and 15-20 SB.  Similar to Carlos Gonzalez except at shortstop.  Michael Cuddyer was healthy longer playing in 101 games last year.  His AVG was down from the others at 260, but he still popped 16 HR with 50+ RBI and R and 8 SB.  A full season of that would have been 20+ easily with 75 RBI, 70 R and 15 SB.  Expect similar numbers, with maybe an uptick in AVG (270 region) but a slow drop in SB (closer to 10).  CarGo, Tulo and Cuddyer are the heart of this order.  Rosario and Pacheco are bottom of the order bats who can be a plus.  Todd Helton is the veteran who is on the decline.  If healthy (which he wasn’t last year) then I’d expect his AVG to climb a lot, but more than 10 HR would be surprising at this point.  Think 260 with 8 HR, but good clubhouse leadership.  The real breakout player in Denver last year was Dexter Fowler.  Fowler hit 300 with a whopping 389 OBP.  He’s not incredibly fast (12 out of 17 SB) but delivered plus pop (13 HR) and great R numbers (72).  He only played in 143 games, but when healthy, I’d expect 85+ R, with a 15/15 line and 300 again.  He’s the spark that makes this offense go.  And it’s deep.  1-8 in this batting order can do damage, and that doesn’t even take into account the depth they have with Eric Young Jr on the bench (316 with 14 SB in 98 games), Tyler Colvin’s power (290 with 18 HR in 136 games) and Josh Rutledge.  This Rockies team can hit the ball, especially at home but also on the road.  Scoring runs won’t be a problem this year.

The real problem in Colorado is keeping other teams from scoring runs.  For reference, no pitcher on this club qualified for the ERA title.  The reason for that is the Rockies were so bad on the mound, that they tried a new thing where each guy threw like 70 pitches in a game and they had a 4 man rotation.  It did not work.  If a pitcher is bad, he’s going to be as bad in 3 innings as he is in 9.  It was a good thought, but it didn’t work.  These guys are just bad pitchers.  The bad news for the Rockies is that it doesn’t look much better coming into this season.  They will point to the fact that they were missing their ace, Jorge De La Rosa for pretty much all of last year.  He only made 3 starts before being shut down due to injury.  In addition, they only had half a season of their number 2 man, Jhoulys Chacin.  But, the guys behind them weren’t great.  In fact, the Rockies didn’t have a single pitcher make as many as 25 starts.  Jeff Francis was closest with 24.  He was 6-7 with a 5.48 ERA.  Alex White and Drew Pomeranz joined Francis as the only guys to break the 20 start barrier, but they were equally bad going 2-9 (both of them had the same record, that’s not combined) with a 4.93 and 5.51 ERA respectively.   Of those 3 starters, only Jeff Francis figures to break into the starting rotation this season barring injury.  Jorge De La Rosa will be the ace, but no one is expecting much.  I’d think his season would be successful if he kept his ERA under 4.50 and made 30 starts.  But we’ll see.  Chacin is the number 2 man, and I’m expecting just as little from him.  He was 3-5 with a 4.43 in 14 games last year, and was easily their best pitcher.  That’s how bad the pitching situation is in Colorado.  The good news is that Pomeranz is young and has a bright future.  The Rockies sent him to the minors to work on a few things, among them getting his confidence back after being shelled in the majors.  Juan Nicasio is going to be the number 3 man in the Mile High City.  He went 2-3 with a 5.28 in 11 starts last year.  It gets worse.  The fourth spot in this rotation will go to veteran Jon Garland who didn’t play in the majors last season.  His last full season was in 2010 with the Padres and he went 14-12 with a 3.47.  Then he went to the Dodgers the next season where he was 1-5 with a 4.33.  He then went down to shoulder surgery losing the rest of the season and being bought out of his contract by the Dodgers.  He signed minor league deals with the Indians and Mariners before pitching well in the Spring for Seattle.  Last spring.  But he wasn’t guaranteed a roster spot and asked for his release.  Now with the Rockies, we have no idea what this guy will bring to the table.  But anything north of double digit wins or anything south of an ERA of 5 will be welcome in Denver.  This starting rotation may be the worst in baseball and the bullpen isn’t much better.  Rafael Betancourt locks down the back end of it and led the team with 31 Saves.  His 2.81 ERA was solid as was his 1.13 WHIP and 241 BAA.  He’s not overpowering, but still strikes out a guy an inning and is a veteran who consistently gets the job done.  His Save potential is limited by the few games his team wins, but he isn’t a problem.  In fact, if he’s good in the first half, we may see him shipped off to a contender around the trade deadline, which of course would make his Save numbers plummet, but he’d still be a valuable middle reliever.  Matt Belisle was okay as a set up man with 26 Holds.  His 3.71 ERA was high for a reliever.  And his 282 BAA and 1.36 WHIP were well above average.  You worry when he goes out there.  And with only 69 Ks in 80 innings, it’s not like he’s an overpowering pitcher who’s great or wild.  He’s just inconsistent.  And he’s probably their second best arm.  Rex Brothers actually led the team with 8 Wins, but he’s strictly a middle reliever and had 0 starts last year.  He was second on the team with 18 Holds and led the club with 83 Ks in 67 IP.  That’s right, the man with the most strikeouts on this staff was a middle reliever who had 83 Ks.  Bad, bad, bad.  The rest of this bullpen is either underwhelming or has very little experience with Wilton Lopez headlining the remaining back of the rotation arms and former starter Chris Volstad getting a shot as a long reliever/spot starter.  Perhaps it’s not quite as bad as the starters, but would be if they had to throw more innings.  As good as this offense can be, they won’t go anywhere with this weight of a pitching staff dragging them down.

2013 Prediction:

This team is not very good.  And, they are also in an awkward position.  They have a lot of bad pitchers paired with a strong offense.  However many of their offensive stars are in their prime, while their pitchers are on both sides of it.  That doesn’t make them good candidates to re-build or to go for it now.  The fact is, they have a lot of quality players that will likely lead them to a 4^th or 5^th place finish in their division.  They were last in 2012.  They may make the jump to 4^th in 2013 with a healthy Tulowitzki leading them, but ultimately they won’t even remotely sniff the playoffs or the division title.  This team is moving towards re-building with some youth in the pitching staff and the looming retirement of Todd Helton.  But the Rockies need to be solvent soon, or the money they promised to Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki will be wasted on a decade of seasons like this one:  great offense and bad pitching landing them near the bottom of the standings.  

San Diego Padres 2013 Team Breakdown

Well it’s that time.  Baseball is nearing the end of its first month.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like this season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I started with the AL West then knocked out the NL East and Central.  I’m now in the NL West.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the fourth team I’ll look at in the NL West will be the San Diego Padres. 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

 

C-         Yasmani Grandal

1B-      Yonder Alonso

2B-      Logan Forsythe

SS-       Everth Cabrera

3B-      Chase Headley

LF-      Carlos Quentin

CF-      Cameron Maybin

RF-      Will Venable

 

Starting Rotation:      Edinson Volquez, Clayton Richard, Eric Stults, Jason Marquis, Tyson Ross

 

Bullpen:          Huston Street, Luke Gregerson, Dale Thayer, Brad Bach, Joe Thatcher, Andrew Cashner

 

Projected Batting Order

 

SS-       Everth Cabrera

CF-      Cameron Maybin

3B-      Chase Headley

LF-      Carlos Quentin

1B-      Yonder Alonso

C-         Yasmani Grandal

RF-      Will Venable

2B-      Logan Forsythe

 

The San Diego Padres have struggled recently.  In 2010, they shocked the world, winning 90 games and finishing 2 games back of the San Francisco Giants in the NL West.  That is unlikely to happen this season.  This team is in full re-build mode, though they’ve been in it long enough to have a solid core coming together.  Chase Headley broke out last season, finally living up to his potential and leading the league in RBI.  Everth Cabrera took over the starting shortstop position and flew like a bunny around the bags, racking up stolen bases.  And Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal had full seasons in the bigs to gain experience and grow into their potential.  However, this team isn’t ready to contend yet.  Especially when some of their star players will be missing time due to injury (Headley) or suspension (Grandal…illegal substance).  And this group of starters leaves a lot to be desired, even pitching in spacious Petco Park, which is going to be a little less spacious after they move in the fences this season.  The point is, the Padres are headed in the right direction, but they’ve got a long way to go.

 

Offensively this team was led by Chase Headley, which is no big surprise.  He is their best player.  The surprise was how good he was.  He hit 286 with 31 HR and 115 RBI.  He also led the team with 95 R and swiped 17 bags.  He was a 5-tool player and a beast.  The tricky thing is…his contract is running out.  The Padres have to decide if he’s the guy they want to build around (and they do have some solid offensive pieces in place at first, catcher, short and wherever Gyorko ends up) or if they want to let him go, put Gyorko at third (which makes Forsythe the second baseman) and get some prospects back for the future.  It’s hard to know what they’ll decide.  But if doesn’t get healthy and come back soon, they might let him go.  If he has a bad year, he might stay as his value will have dropped.  It’s something to keep an eye on this season.  Beyond Headley, this offense was weak.  Young Yonder Alonso had a strong season, hitting 273 in 155 games.  But he only cracked 9 HR and drove in 62.  Petco is a tough place to hit HR, but you want more power from a first baseman.  They hope he’ll grow into his power and the moved in fences will help him.  But I wouldn’t expect any more than 15 HR from him this year, and that would be quite an improvement.  Carlos Quentin showed impressive power, but has had a long history of injury issues.  His 16 HR in 86 games were a pleasant addition, but they just can’t keep him on the field.  I’d expect another injury-shortened season with around 20 HR, depending on how many games he plays.  No one else besides Headley and Quentin had double-digit power.  But there was plenty of speed.  Everth Cabrera led the team with 44 SBs last year in only 115 games.  But his 246 AVG and 324 OBP saw him hitting lower in the order and only scoring 49 R.  If he doesn’t develop into a top of the order guy, then the Padres are in trouble, and thus far he has not been that guy.  Steals are nice, but you want that speed at the top of the lineup.  Cameron Maybin was in the same catergory.  He had 26 steals, but only a 243 AVG and 306 OBP.  He played in 147 games and helped his value with 8 HR, 45 RBI and 67 R, but doesn’t seem to be a long term solution at the leadoff spot either.  Will Venable was better with 24 steals and a 264 AVG.  His 335 OBP was a little better, but again, not the top of the order presence they need.  All this speed is nice, but you want to use it to manufacture runs.  The Padres don’t seem capable of doing that.  Chris Denorfia was probably the best option they had at leadoff, hitting 293 in 130 games with 13 steals.  He scored 56 R and had a 345 OBP.  But his upside is limited, so they want someone else to take the job.  Until they do, he may start in the outfield and leadoff.  Another future star is Yasmani Grandal who hit 297 in 60 games last year.  He also popped 8 HR, driving in 36.  He might be their brightest offensive star, but will begin the year serving a 50 game suspension for PED usage.  If he was only good because of the drugs, then that’s bad news. Either way, his bottom line will be limited as he won’t return until late May/early June.  The Padres aren’t an offensive force.  And while they have some bright spots and lots of potential, especially in the speed category, they haven’t put it all together yet.  It may take a while.  But at least they have a lot of youth and are letting their youngsters get some experience, including highly touted prospect Jed Gyorko, who will get a lot of ABs filling in at third for the injured Headley.

 

You expect pitchers to have great success in Petco Park, but you have to be a decent pitcher to see any of that translate.  The Padres apparently don’t have decent pitchers.  Clayton Richard was good last year, leading the team with 14 Wins and a 3.99 ERA.  But 3.99 is not a good enough number to be leading a team, especially pitching in that park.  Richard got 14 Wins, but also suffered 14 losses.  He’s not the problem as his WHIP was a tick below AVG and BAA a tick above.  But he’s an innings eater who led the club with 218.  He’s not an ace, but might be for this team.  Edinson Volquez led the team in Ks with 174, but that came with an 11-11 record and a 4.14 ERA.  He walked 105 last year, which knocked his WHIP up to 1.45.  That’s bad.  His BAA of 236 was nice, but he keeps beating himself by putting guys on.  Until he’s able to stop doing that, and he hasn’t shown that he has the capacity to stop walking guys yet, he’ll struggle.  The brightest pitching spot might be Eric Stults who went 8-3 with a 2.92 ERA in 14 starts.  He also appeared in 4 games as a reliever, which helped his numbers.  He’s not a strikeout guy, but kept batters off base with a 1.18 WHIP.  His stuff is okay (51 Ks in 90+ IP and 249 BAA) but he gets batters out.  That’s not common in San Diego.  If he can stay healthy and continue to grow as a pitcher, he might find some success with the Padres.  The back end of this rotation will feature veteran Jason Marquis and Andrew Cashner.  Both were okay with ERAs over 4 in their combined 23 starts going 9-11 (again, combined numbers).  Neither is overly exciting and are essentially eating innings for a team that is re-building.  That’s the starting rotation.  It’s not exciting.  It’s not very good.  And it is expected to win games with a weak offense.  The one area that’s not too bad is the bullpen, which is led by closer Huston Street.  Street garnered 23 Saves with a 1.85 ERA last year.  He’s set up by Luke Gregerson and Dale Thayer, both of whom had solid ERAs (Gregerson’s better than Thayer’s) to go with high strikeout numbers and 20+ Holds apiece.  The middle relief is not as good, but the back end of the bullpen is strong.  If the Padres struggle, you may see some of these guys (mainly Street) hit the trading block, but if the Padres ever get to the end of a game with a lead, it’ll be in good hands. 

 

2013 Prediction:

 

Well the Padres are trying to get better.  They are taking steps.  But it’s a slow process and they aren’t there yet.  They may build around Headley.  They may trade him for prospects and contend a little later.  It just depends how close they think they are.  It makes little sense to pay Headley a lot of money to lead a team that can only win 75 games.  It’s an improvement, but who plays for that.  The Padres want to return to the playoffs.  Until they think they have a team that can get there, they probably won’t spend big money on anyone.  One thing is for sure, they have a long road to go and won’t be in the hunt this season.  Sorry Friar Fans.

Arizona Diamondbacks 2013 Team Breakdown

Well it’s that time.  Baseball season is in full swing.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I started with the AL West, then moved the NL East and NL Central.  I’m wrapping up the senior circuit with the NL West.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the third NL West team I’ll take a look at will be the Arizona Diamondbacks.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks:

2012 Record: 81-81  3^rd in the NL West 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

 

C-         Miguel Montero

1B-      Paul Goldschmidt

2B-      Aaron Hill

SS-       Cliff Pennington

3B-      Martin Prado

LF-      Jason Kubel

CF-      Adam Eaton

RF-      Cody Ross

 

 

Starting Rotation:      Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, Brandon McCarthy, Wade Miley, Randall Delgado

 

Bullpen:                      J.J. Putz, David Hernandez, Heath Bell, Brad Zeigler, Tony Sipp, Josh Collmenter, Matt Reynolds

 

Projected Batting Order

 

CF-      Adam Eaton

3B-      Martin Prado

2B-      Aaron Hill

1B-      Paul Goldschmidt

LF-      Jason Kubel

C-         Miguel Montero

RF-      Cody Ross

SS-       Cliff Pennington

The Diamondbacks were a very mediocre team last year, going 81-81.  They were strong on both sides of the ball, but underperformed and didn’t make the playoffs.  The question is, will this team that won the division two years ago in 2011, or the average team of 2012.  The pitching staff may have over performed in the season they won the division.  The offense lost one of their best players, though by choice.  Now they are counting on an offense of grinders with some new faces (Prado, Pennington, Ross) to support a pitching staff with some new faces (McCarthy, Delgado, Bell).  A lot has changed in Arizona, and GM Kevin Towers and the rest of the Diamondbacks front office hope it all changed for the better.

 

The offense is looking vastly different this year, but the Diamondbacks believe they have a solid group.  Chase Field is a great place to hit, and they think that they’ll do fine this season, even without Justin Upton.  The team batting leader last season was Aaron Hill, who hit 302 with 26 HR, 85 RBI, 93 R and 14 SB.  That’s great offensive output, especially for a second baseman.  Last season’s breakout campaign was fairly unexpected, but didn’t come out of nowhere as he’s a big powerful guy who’s had strong seasons in the past when he was a Blue Jay.  Hill’s HR total was second on the team, behind Jason Kubel.  Kubel had 30 HR to go with a team leading 90 RBI. He was definitely a slugger, turning in a 253 AVG and 151 Ks to 57 BB.  But the power is what they wanted from him, and his ability to drive in runs was huge for this team, and he got on base enough to score 75 R.  He’s one of the big bats in the middle of this order and as long he continues to drive in runs and hit the ball over the fence occasionally, then they don’t care what his AVG is.  One of the biggest surprises on this team was the play of rookie Paul Goldschmidt.  They expected him to play at a high level, but not quite this soon.  He hit 286 with 20 HR, 82 RBI, 82 R and 18 SB.  They knew he had good power, but they were very pleased with his AVG and blown away with that speed.  He’s a promising young slugger with a bright future.  Between those three guys, you could see 20, 25, and 30 HR to go with 80-100 RBI, not to mention 15 SB from Hill and Goldschmidt.  They are now the leaders of this team.  After Goldschmidt’s great rookie season, they hope to strike lightning in a bottle twice with rookie Adam Eaton, who they want to take over the center field job and hit at the top of the lineup.  In 22 games last year, he hit 259 with 2 HR, 5 RBI, 19 R and 2 SB.  It’s a small sample size, but his 382 OBP was good to see, as was his 14 BB/15 K ratio.    A lot of people think the Diamondbacks are lacking a true star now that Justin Upton is out of the desert, but there is no doubt that they are deep with talent.  In addition to the aforementioned players, the Diamondbacks have an All Star behind the plate in Miguel Montero.  Montero may not be the biggest star when it comes to big name catchers, but he is very good and incredibly consistent.  Last season he hit 286 with 15 HR, 88 RBI and 65 R.  That’s fantastic output for a catcher.  He cleans up behind the big boppers, and does a great job.  Finally, this offense has a couple of new elements that they hope will support this solid nucleus.  They signed free agent Cody Ross to take over in right field for the departed Justin Upton, who went to the Atlanta Braves in a trade.  Ross hit 267 in Boston last season, with 22 HR, 81 RBI and 70 R in many more games then he was supposed to play.  The good news for him is that it made his stock rise and earned him a nice deal to play for Arizona.  I’d expect another season of 260+ with 15+ HR and 60+ RBI and R depending on where in the order he hits.  They expect a little more out of new third baseman Martin Prado, who was the main return in the Upton trade.  Prado hit 301 with the Braves last season with 10 HR, 70 RBI, 81 R and 17 SB.  The 300 AVG is what we’ve come to expect from Prado when he’s healthy and getting a full slate of playing time.  Last year for Atlanta, he was technically the starting left fielder, but he played a lot of third, some second and then short when injuries befell Andrelton Simmons.  He’s also played first in the past, so he’s a valuable weapon for Kirk Gibson’s team.  He’ll probably play a lot of third, especially with the wealth of outfielders in Arizona.  But I think we can expect him to hit around 300 again, with possibly 15 HR (he’s done that before and Chase Field is much friendlier to longballs than Turner Field is) and 75 RBI/R, again depending on where he hits in the order.  But I’m betting he’ll hit second, so another 70 RBI, 80 R campaign looks probable.  The real question here is about the stolen bases.  He’s always hovered around 5, but had a great percentage.  So, Fredi Gonzalez gave him the green light more in Atlanta, and he was good.  I doubt he’ll swipe 20 this year.  Or even 15.  But 10 is probably a good guess, with a possibility for more.  His partner on the left side of the infield is also new to the desert.  Cliff Pennington is more of a glove first man, hitting 215 with 6 HR, 28 RBI, 50 R and 15 SB.  There’s not a lot of expectation for him at the plate, but he’s more of a placeholder until prospect Didi Gregorious comes up.  They added Gregorious to the team in a three way trade with the Reds and Indians.  The Diamondbacks sent Trevor Bauer to the Indians, got Gregorious from the Reds and Tony Sipp from the Indians and the Reds got Shin Soo Choo back.  Oh and the Indians got Drew Stubbs.  It’s a really confusing trade and I almost certainly forgot parts of it.  But, other than some SBs, Pennington likely won’t contribute much.  After the starters, the Diamondbacks can boast some of the best depth in the game.  In addition to the versatility of Prado, the Diamondbacks have a Gold Glove winning fourth outfielder in Gerardo Parra, who hits for a good AVG (273) with great speed (15 SB).  If he were to ever get a starting job, we could see 25+ SB from him and maybe 80+ R.  But the Diamondbacks like him subbing in at the corners, though he does play all 3 positions.  In addition to Parra, they’ve got two solid veterans backing up the corners in Eric Chavez and Eric Hinske.  This offense should play.  The question is, how good is this pitching staff?

 

Last year, rookie Wade Miley led this pitching staff with 16 Wins and a 3.33 ERA.  He was my pick or Rookie of the Year, as I think it’s harder to break into this league as a pitcher than a hitter.  Sorry Bryce Harper.  Anyway, Wiley was very solid last season, keeping his ERA low, mainly by pitching to contact (144 Ks) and not letting men on base (1.18 WHIP).  Hitters were able to put the bat on the ball okay (255 BAA), but he kept his ERA low by not beating himself.  I’d expect some regression, perhaps an uptick in ERA and a drop in his Win total.  He threw a very impressive 194 IP last season, and you worry about the durability of a young arm like that.  The good news is that he was successful in his first season, and isn’t expected to be the man in Arizona this season.  As long as he continues to grow and improve, he’ll live through a regression and still be competitive keeping his team in games.  The true ace of this staff is Ian Kennedy who led the team with 187 Ks.  He was strong last year, though not as good as in 2011.  He went 15-12 in 208 IP, but his other numbers fell from their lofty perch.  His ERA climbed to a little over 4 (4.02), his WHIP was a tick above average (1.30) and his BAA was also high (266).  His 2011 numbers (21-4, 2.88 ERA) probably won’t come back.  But he’ll be better than he was last year.  Think 15+ Wins with a 3.50, 220 IP and 200 Ks (assuming he stays healthy).  Trevor Cahill is the number 2.  He went 13-12 last year with a 3.78 ERA.  He’s essentially an innings eater and did his job well last season.  He kept his ERA under 4 and logged right at 200 IP last season.  His WHIP and BAA were both a tad higher than you’d like, but he always pitches to those numbers, logs his innings, keeps his team in games, and wins double digit games.  Consistency is a valuable commodity in this game, and the Dbacks feel pretty certain about Cahill throwing 200 IP, striking out 150 and pitching to an ERA of around 4.  He was signed from the A’s last season and did a fantastic job holding this starting rotation together, and will need to do that again this season.  With Daniel Hudson missing the year to Tommy John, the Diamondbacks realized they needed some new blood to add to the middle of their starting rotation.  So they went back to the Oakland Athletics talent pool and brought in Brandon McCarthy.  McCarthy went 8-6 in 18 games last season.  He pitched well, with a 3.24 ERA.  His season was cut short after taking a scary line drive off the head.  But he’s healthy now, and in his last full season (2011) he threw 25 games going 9-9 with a 3.32 ERA.  His WHIP was not quite as good as the league average though his ERA was a tick better than average.  You see that a lot with guys who don’t have great stuff.  They don’t strike a lot of guys out, and aren’t fooling guys too much.  But they pitch to contact and don’t beat themselves.  It’s what he’s done in the past and what he did last year.  That makes me think his ERA will climb a bit, as his WHIP was right at average and his BAA was well above (267).  Also, Chase Field is a tougher place to pitch than the Oakland Coliseum.  But if he can cut back on the walks (1 fewer than the year before despite pitching 7 fewer games) and get back to what he’s good at (attacking the corners and changing speeds in the strike zone) he should approach 30 starts, with a sub 4 ERA, 180+ IP and 140 Ks.  The last spot in this rotation will be between Patrick Corbin and Josh Collmenter, though with the injury histories of McCarthy and Kennedy and Miley’s youth, both will likely see some starts.  Neither one is great, but both are good enough to keep the Diamondbacks in games.  And that’s all these starters should have to do with their strong offense.  The bullpen looks strong with J.J. Putz closing things out, David Hernandez as a strong setup man and former closers Heath Bell and Brad Zeigler coming out for late inning matchups.  Putz had 32 Saves last year, Hernandez is a talented youngster with a power arm, and having closers in the 7^th inning is always a recipe for success.  The Diamondbacks hope that their strong bullpen will make up for any questions in their starting rotation.  And if that rotation lives up to it’s promise, this will be a great team.

 

 

2013 Prediction:

 

The Diamondbacks are a good team.  I like the way the have built this roster and the way they go about playing baseball.  I think Kirk Gibson’s insistence on “grinders” perhaps drove some talented players from this roster, for what I think is no good reason.  Justin Upton and Trevor Bauer are incredibly talented.  They aren’t lazy and they play hard.  But some things come more easily to some guys as opposed to others and these guys don’t seem to be “grinding it out”.  Perhaps the locker room camaraderie it will foster will make up for anything the team lost.  And this team still has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball.  I think the questions mainly revolve around this pitching staff that they hope is good enough to support an offense that, while talented, might be a bit diminished from last season.  While they might not be the best team in their division, they are talented, young and could be in the playoff hunt this year.  But even if this is not their year, they will likely be playing October baseball in the future.