Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Baltimore Orioles 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Baseball is well underway and I’m still breaking down teams.  Better late than never.  After starting with the AL West, I’ve knocked out the entire National League before moving back to the AL East to finish the Junior Circuit.  Breaking teams down based on last year’s standings, the second team in the AL East I’ll take a look at will be the Baltimore Orioles.

Projected Starting Lineup

C-        Matt Wieters
1B-      Chris Davis
2B-      Brian Roberts
SS-      JJ Hardy
3B-      Manny Machado
LF-      Nate McClouth
CF-      Adam Jones
RF-      Nick Markakis
DH-     Nolan Reimold

Starting Rotation:      Wei Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Jason Hammel, Jake Arrieta,                                          Chris Tillman, Tommy Hunter

Bullpen:                    Jim Johnson, Pedro Strop, Darren O’Day, Troy Patton, Brian Matusz

Projected Batting Order

2B-      Brian Roberts
CF-      Adam Jones
RF_     Nick Markakis
1B-      Chris Davis
C-        Matt Wieters
SS-      JJ Hardy
3B-      Manny Machado
DH-     Nolan Reimold
LF-      Nate McClouth


The Baltimore Orioles may have been the most surprising team in baseball last season.  It was up there between the Orioles and Athletics, but with the Orioles lacking success longer than the A’s, I’m giving them the edge in the biggest surprise success contest.  Widely considered to be the worst team in the best division in baseball, the Orioles had an incredible run last year, with the best record in one games and an overachieving group of youngsters that ousted the Red Sox and Rays and won the Wildcard in the AL East.  However, there are questions about whether they could do it again.  Their run differential was historically bad last year and their 1-run game record will be nearly impossible to repeat.  But the chemistry on this team is great and Buck Showalter has these guys believing they can play with the best teams in baseball.  And with their success last year and subsequent playoff appearance and win over the Rangers in the Wildcard round it’s hard to argue with him.  It’ll be tough for the Orioles to repeat, but no one thinks they can do it more than the guys wearing Orioles uniforms. 

This offense was good last year, and they need it to be better this year.  As I previously mentioned, the Orioles had a crazy run differential last year.  They were 18 games over 500 but were outscored by 21 runs.  They won 27 games by 1 run and 22 by 2 runs.  They’d like to see that offense play a little more consistently, though they are hardly the issue.  Adam Jones was the batting champ of this team last year, hitting 287.  That’s part of the issue the Orioles face.  They really don’t have anyone who hits 300 or better.  Perhaps someone will do it this year and Adam Jones would be my bet, though Nick Markakis would be another good bet as he hit 298 in 104 games.  But Jones was always a good player and took a step towards greatness last year.  He carried this team into the playoffs with the high AVG, 32 HR, 82 RBI, 16 SB and a team leading 103 R.  He’s a top of the order bat who hits second a lot, but could be a great man in the 3 hole as well.  In a pinch he could lead off.  He likely won’t ever steal 30 bases, though 20 is a possibility, but everything else he does is great.  30 HR power is for real, the RBIs speak for themselves (and in the middle of the order that likely goes over 100), the speed is good and he won a Gold Glove last season.  This guy does it all and is a leader on this team.  And we saw his skills in the WBC as he was one of the few hitters who played well for team USA.  I’m thinking another season of 285 with 25+ HR, 80+ RBI, 90+ R and 15 SB.  The power leader for this team was Chris Davis, who slugged 33 HR last season and led the team with 85 RBI.  He was considered a bit of a bust in Texas, as a guy with great power but someone who couldn’t put it all together at the plate and was a detriment in the field.  But he changed minds last year, getting a chance in Baltimore and slugging all those HR with a 270 AVG and playing a solid first, third and left field.  He won’t win any Gold Gloves, but will be an adequate first baseman this year and has gotten off to a torrid start.  There is no doubt in my mind that he can surpass 30 HR again, and likely put up a decent AVG.  Think 260+ with 30+ HR, 85 RBI and 75 R.  Very similar to last season.  The other two middle of the order bats will be Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters.  Markakis has been a long-time Oriole and fan favorite for years.  He never became a superstar, but his consistency was extremely impressive as he would hit 275 with 20+ HR, 75+ RBI, 75+ R and 15+ SB each season while playing a great right field.  He’s very similar to Adam Jones, though not quite the defender he is.  Jones is great while Markakis may only be very good, but if he’s healthy this guy can be counted on to play like he always does, and consistency like that is worth a lot in this game of ups and downs.  Matt Wieters will spend most of his time hitting 5th and crouching behind the plate, though he’ll be spelled as a DH from time to time.  Wieters hasn’t quite lived up to his potential yet and struggled last season hitting 249.  But he was third on the team with 23 HR and second with 83 RBI.  Perhaps he’ll never blossom into a superstar.  But his bat plays and scouts still think he can be a man who reaches the 300 plateau.  I’m thinking he’s more of a 275 hitter, but even that has been out of reach for him.  I don’t know if he gets there this year, but he’ll be much closer than 249.  Think 265+ with 20+ HR and 80+ RBI.  He’ll likely never hit 30 bombs, but is great behind the plate and 20+ HR from a catcher is nice to have on any team.  That’s the core of this offense.  The others support these guys in different ways.  They’d like to think Brian Roberts can come back healthy, but he’s already hurt and hasn’t been healthy in years.  There is no way to know what he could do if healthy and unfortunately at this point you have to assume he’ll get hurt.  We will likely see a lot of Alexi Casilla, which is why they went out and signed a high caliber backup for second base, knowing that Roberts can’t always stay healthy.  With Roberts out, you’ll likely see Nate McLouth lead off in Baltimore.  McLouth hit 241 with 7 HR, 20 RBI, 39 R and 12 SB.  His All Star season in Pittsburgh in 2008 where he was a 20/20 man seems like an aberration.  The Braves traded for him after that season, and he bounced around struggling in Atlanta until last season when the Pirates re-signed him to be a fourth outfielder.  He only played in 34 games with the Pirates and really struggled hitting 140.  But Baltimore took a flier on him needing bats for their playoff push.  And he found some new life there, hitting 268 with a 342 OBP out of the leadoff spot.  He hit all 7 of his HR, 18 of his 20 RBI and stole all 12 of his bases in Baltimore while playing a solid left field.  He’ll leadoff for them this season with Brian Roberts spending time on the DL.  At short you have J.J. Hardy, who is now expected to do nothing other than play good defense and hit the ball deep.  He’s always had good power, but it was limited as he tried to improve his contact rate.  The defense was always top notch.  So, in Baltimore, they gave him a different role letting him hit in the bottom of the lineup and telling him to swing for the fences.  It worked as he cracked 28 HR last season.  And the 238 AVG was fine for a number 7 hitter.  He’s joined on the left side of the infield by young Manny Machado, a shortstop by trade who has taken over third base with Chris David at first and Mark Reynolds out of town.  Machado hit 262 with 7 HR in only 51 games.  They love his talent and can’t wait to see a full season of him in Baltimore.  Nolan Reimold is serviceable as a DH and that’s the offense the Orioles will put out there.  They are young and talented.  They may not be the best out there, but they are above average and getting better each season.

Baltimore’s leading starter last year was Japanese import Wei-Yin Chen.  Chen led the team with 12 Wins, a 4.02 ERA and 154 Ks.  His 32 starts also led the team.  And while those numbers don’t seem great, it was good for his first season in the majors and the only reason he was the leader is because he was the only pitcher who qualified in the counting stats.  The best starter in Baltimore was probably Jason Hammel who went 8-6 in his time as an Oriole with a 3.43 ERA.  He only started 20 games, which limited his numbers and made him ineligible for the ERA title.  But he played very well with his WHIP and BAA both slightly better than league average.  Chen’s numbers were right at the league average.   After those 2 stabilizing the rotation, the Orioles trotted out 7 more starters who didn’t have the success that Chen and Hammel enjoyed.  Tommy Hunter matched Hammel with 20 starts, but greatly struggled with a 5.45 ERA and BAA of 302.  Jake Arieta was 3-9 with a 6.20 ERA in his 18 starts.  After those guys struggled, Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter turned to some other options.  The first was Chris Tillman, who has faded in the eyes of many since his highly touted days as a prospect.  But he got the job done in this tough division last year going 9-3 in 15 games with a stellar 2.93 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 207 BAA.  Those are ace numbers.  They hope he can do that over a full season.  The next man they turned to was Miguel Gonalez.  He went 9-4 in 15 games with a 3.25 ERA.  Gonazelz and Tillman have now moved up to become middle of the order starters behind Chen and Hammel and have left Tillman and Arieta to fight for the 5th spot.  The loser will join Brian Matusz (another highly touted prospect who didn’t pan out) in the bullpen with Jim Johnson.  And speaking of shockers, how bout the season Jim Johnson had at Camden Yards.  He had 51 Saves to go with a 2.49 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 220 BAA.  He’s not a big strikeout guy, and you really tend to like that in a closer.  The true outcomes are easier to count on.  But he got the job done and played very well last season.  No one saw this success coming, and it’s tough to believe he can do it again.  But as well as he played last season, and the peripheral numbers support the big ones, makes me think he should have close to the same success.  Think 35+ Saves with a competitive ERA.  After him, this bullpen doesn’t look great on paper (frankly Johnson isn’t jaw dropping on paper).  Pedro Stop was solid with 24 Holds and a 2.44 ERA.  But the rest of their top relievers are no longer on the team (Luis Ayala, Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom).  They hope that Darren O’Day and Troy Patton can step up and play solidly with the whichever odd starters join them to play solidly and support this offense better this season.

2013 Prediction:

The Orioles are a tricky team to predict this year.  Their success last year looks fluky, but a closer examination shows that they have talent and it’s young and should, theoretically, get better with age.  Their pitching isn’t great, and pitching wins championships.  And their hitters look like they could be prone to streaks.  And while youth is good, sometimes it means inexperience.  The good news about that is this team has playoff experience from last season, including a playoff win.  So what does that mean?  I don’t know.  This team confuses me.  But, pressed to make a decision, I’d have to say that I don’t think this team has what it takes to win the division this year.  Nor do I think they will in the Wildcard.  I’m picking them to finish in fourth, as a good team, but well out of the playoffs.  Obviously waiting this long into the season to publish this gives me a chance to edit my picks.  I won’t do that, though I acknowledge that this team is better than I thought, and I probably put them too low.  But in a pinch, I’d still have to say they finish outside the playoffs, despite their early success.  

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

New York Yankees 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  A quarter of the season is done and I’m still doing team breakdowns.  Hooray procrastination.  But we are marching right along here.  I started with the AL West, knocked out the entire NL and have moved back to the junior circuit to examine the AL East.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the first team I’ll take a look at will be the New York Yankees.


Projected Starting Lineup

C-        Francisco Cervelli
1B-      Mark Teixeira
2B-      Robinson Cano
SS-       Derek Jeter
3B-      Kevin Youkilis
LF-       Brett Gardner
CF-      Curtis Granderson
RF-      Ichiro Suzuki
DH-     Travis Hafner

Starting Rotation:      C.C. Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Petite, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova

Bullpen:                      Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Boone Logan, Joba                                                      Chamberlain, Shawn Kelley, David Phelps, Cody Eppley

Projected Batting Order

LF-       Brett Gardner
SS-       Derek Jeter
2B-      Robinson Cano
1B-      Mark Teixeira
CF-      Curtis Granderson
3B-      Kevin Youkilis
DH-     Travis Hafner
C-        Francisco Cervelli
RF-      Ichiro Suzuki

The Yankees are a bit of a mess this season.  In addition to fielding one of the oldest and most expensive teams in baseball, the rest of their division has gotten younger, while keeping their payroll much lower and, frankly, now look better than the once mighty “evil empire”.  And, perhaps most importantly, they have had an incredible rash of injuries to start the year.  Now, injuries are a bit of a freak thing, but no one can argue that the age of the Yankees makes their players more susceptible to injury, and the lack of quality players being developed in their minor league system left them largely without capable backups.  The lineup I listed above won’t play together for a while.  The first move the Yankees made was to sign veteran Kevin Youkilis (off one of the worst seasons of his career) to a 1-year deal to replace A-Rod, who will miss AT LEAST half the season to hip surgery, though he could be gone for the whole year.  Not his first hip surgery btw.  They then re-upped Andy Petite and Hiroki Kuroda to 1-year deals and signed another aging veteran in Travis Hafner to take over the DH duties.  None of these moves saved them any money or made them any younger.  Then, the injuries came.  Derek Jeter, who was lost in the playoffs to a horrific ankle injury, is coming back slower than expected and started the season on the DL.  Curtis Granderson broke his right forearm early in spring training and is missing the first month and a half of the season.  And Mark Teixeira partially tore a tendon sheath in his right wrist.  I don’t know what it means, but if he needs surgery he’ll miss a lot of time.  Right now he doesn’t, but as I understand it’s a tricky injury, and even if all goes well he won’t be back until mid-May.  The point is, the Yankees are very old and fragile and have cobbled together a lineup of castaways to hold things over until the starters return.  They signed free agent Lyle Overbay (who was unable to find work to this point) to play first.  They also contacted the retired Chipper Jones and Derek Lee, but were re-buffed.  Youkilis will also play some first while Eduardo Nunez fills in at short and third.  (Though, as of this writing, Nunez was hit by a pitch and is day to day).  In the outfield, Brett Gardner will slide over to left and a committee of Brennan Boesch (who was cut by Detroit) and Vernon Wells (the man believed to be the most overpaid player in the game who the Yankees traded for) will rotate in left.  Essentially, this lineup, which has lost luster even when healthy, looks extremely barren until the middle of May.

The Captain, Derek Jeter was the team leader in hitting last year with a 316 AVG.  Jeter also chipped in 15 HR and 99 R to lead this club to a division title.  However after his injury in the playoffs, he expected to be back for the beginning of the season, but wasn’t ready.  Then when he got to rehab, he rushed it.  As a result he had a setback and won’t re-join the team until at least August.  He’s getting older each season, and his wheels dwindled even before the ankle injury.  He continues to surprise people, but another season of 15 HR or double-digit stolen bases will be just about impossible with 2/3s of the season missed.  300 is a possibility, but I don’t expect any more than 40 R.  The HR leader for the pinstriped gang was Curtis Granderson with 43.  He also led the team with 106 RBI.  He primarily hit 2nd, which was pretty dumb.  The 232 AVG pretty much precludes him from the upper third of the lineup, and that short porch at the new Yankee stadium has made him one-dimensional.  Assuming he comes back fully healthy in May I think we will see 30 HR and 80 RBI to go with a small AVG and a handful of steals.  This should be the year that Girardi moves him into the middle of the order (5th or 6th) as there are no longer any delusions that he can hit for AVG and steal bags.  The best hitter on this team is Robinson Cano who hit 313 last season with 33 HR, 94 RBI and 105 R.  The only thing this guy doesn’t do is steal bases.  He’s got a great glove at second and is now the unquestioned leader on this club.  He’s pretty much the only Yankee currently healthy who can hit for power.  And if the Yankees have any hope of making the postseason, he has to have another huge year, especially early on.  The Yankees lost 112 HR with the departures of Russell Martin, Raul Ibanez, Andruw Jones, Eric Chavez, Alex Rodriguez (who will be gone a long time), and Nick Swisher.  Add in the loss of Teixeira and Granderson and that total climbs to 179.  This team doesn’t hit with runners on, can’t manufacture many runs and is looking very old and mortal.  Cano is the only hope to keep them in contention.  If he performs well (and he should in a walk year) think 310 with 35 HR, 110 RBI and 100 R.  Who’s left?  Well Teixeira will eventually be back at first after a season of 251/24/84/66.  You worry about his numbers dropping as he gets older and with this injury.  Recent history hasn’t been kind to the Gold Glover.  Think 250 again with only 15 HR and 70 RBI in limited ABs.  The only other returning Yankees from last season are in the outfield and behind the plate.  And none of them were full time for different reasons.  Francisco Cervelli will be the starting catcher.  He was hitless in 3 games last year.  Brett Gardner will be back in the outfield.  He was originally slated to move back to left when Granderson returned, but he’s played so well defensively that Girardi will move Granderson to a corner.  He will likely be the full-time leadoff man this year, though you never know with Girardi’s endless tinkering.  He only appeared in 16 games last year, but did hit 323.  It was a nice start before a season lost to injury.  In his last healthy season (2011) he hit 259 with 49 SBs.  They think he can be a top of the order bat, but he’s got to get on base more and raise that AVG.  I think he’ll be solid, if unspectacular.  Think 270 with 30 SBs and 75 R.  And in right the Yankees have brought back Ichiro Suzuki.  After trading for the veteran late last year, they watched him take over the team lead in SBs with 14 in 67 games.  He also hit 322 with 5 HR.  I think he would be a great number 2 hitter, especially in the beginning of the year with all those injuries, but that’s just me.  He may hit 9th, which in the AL is where you put your backup leadoff candidate.  His age is not a strength, and people point to his struggles in Seattle as proof that he’s over the hill (261 with 15 SB in 95 games).  But it’s important to remember that the Mariners wanted him to hit 3rd, slugging HR and try to drive in runs.  Despite his impressive BP power displays, it didn’t translate and that accounted for most of his struggles.  He still had 178 hits last season and 29 SBs.  I see him hitting in the 280-300 range with 10 HR, 60 RBI, 70 R and 25 SBs.  Not as illustrious as we are used to from him, but strong for a 9th hitter.  That covers all the returning offensive pieces.  How about the new guys?  Kevin Youkilis was signed to play at least half a season of third base (probably more).  The thought was when A-Rod did come back, Youk would become part of the DH rotation, taking his spot DHing but also playing first and third when it was A-Rod or Teixeira’s turn to DH.  In that way, he’d probably get about 500 ABs for the Yankees.  Last year was Youk’s worst season, hitting 235.  He did have 19 HR and 60 RBI in only 122 games, but there is concern he’s been on the decline, especially since he hasn’t reached 140 games since 2008.  His HR totals have dropped every season from 08 to 2011, though he went from 17 in 2011 to 19 in 2012.  So we’ll see what he’s got left in the tank.  The fact is, the Yankees needed a third baseman.  And their lack of talent in the minors dictated that they pay an aging veteran $10 million dollars this year to not even play a full season.  It’s the Yankee way.  (PS, Youkilis is currently on the DL).  The other full-time starter in the Bronx is DH Travis Hafner.  Hafner signed a huge contract to DH in Cleveland, then was hurt for most of the contracted time.  Finally free from that contract, he seemed like a prime candidate to be a Yankee.  He signed a much smaller contract this time, though he wasn’t expected to go higher than about 450 ABs.  Injuries may change that, and Yankees fans hope they will see the Hafner of old, though no one has seen that since about 2007.  He hit 228 last year with 12 HR in 66 games.  The year before he hit 280 with 13 HR in 94 games.  He’s becoming more one dimensional, and as a lefty in that little league stadium I’d be surprised if Hafner DIDN’T try to hit it out of the park every time up.  I’m thinking anything over 240 would be a surprise, but 20 HR wouldn’t be.  What else is new in Yankee land?  The current left fielders and first baseman.  In left we have Brennan Boesch, Vernon Wells and Ben Francisco.  Boesch was cut by Detroit after hitting 240 with 12 HR and 54 RBI last year.  It was really a bad spring and depth that led to the youngster’s release. He has recently been sent down to the minors.  Instead of letting young Boesch find his way on a team sorely in need of youth, the Yankees instead traded for Vernon Wells, who was making $20+ million to sit on the Angels bench.  Wells has been one of the highest paid busts since Barry Zito and Alfonso Soriano came into existence.  He hit 230 last year with 11 HR and 29 RBI in 77 games.  He was generally the odd man out in the Angels outfield with Bourjous, Hunter and Trout starting and Trumbo and Morales DHing.  The Angels lost Hunter and Morales this year, but brought in Josh Hamilton.  With Trout, Hamilton and Bourjous starting, there was no spot for Wells since Trumbo would DH.  They were begging a team to step in and take on the worst contract in the game.  The Yankees happily obliged, taking on $11.5 million of the 21 million he’s owed this year and being on the hook for $2.4 million of his contract next year.  Now, $11.5 million of a $42 million contract may seem like a drop in the hat, but no one else was willing to trade for this guy so the Angels were going to eat it.  Now the Yankees are paying for about a quarter of it, and have to hope that he doesn’t reach 400 ABs if their starters come back healthy.  Few teams would approach $10 million for a backup, but the Yankees have 2 (depending on what you consider Youkilis to be).  At least they’re consistent.  What do I expect of Wells?  Well the last time he reached 130 games he hit 218 with 25 HR and 66 RBI.  I’m thinking 220 this year, with 18 HR.  Everyone can hit ‘em in the new Yankee stadium, but that doesn’t make them a strong offensive player.  He’ll barely be worth $5 million, much less the $9.5 the Yanks will give him.  Ben Francisco will back him up.  He’s a 31 year old career backup who hasn’t done much in the big leagues and has done even less so far this season.  And Lyle Overbay is a complete mystery.  He’s hit 267 with 3 HR since 2011.  He will likely get fewer ABs than anyone (assuming Tex is healthy), but any lefty can pop double digit HRs in 150 ABs with the Yanks.  Think, 230 with 5 HR.  The summation of this is the Yankees will pay a lot of different guys a lot of money to get very little offensive support.  This team couldn’t hit with runners on last year, waiting instead for the 3 run homer to bail them out.  That won’t be coming this year, and I see this offense struggling.  They will always hit a lot of HR, but I see their R numbers and team AVG plummeting and maybe leaving them outside of October baseball. 

The one area that looks okay for the Yanks is, interestingly, the pitching staff.  I have never thought of the Yankees as an organization that is a strong mound group, as developing pitchers takes years and patience, virtues that don’t come to mind when talking about the Bombers.  In fact, I read a great article by Jeff Passan discussing the Yankees lack of player development, specifically on the mound.  But for now, the Yankees have a pretty decent starting 5 going for them.  The ace of this staff is still C.C. Sabathia, and while he’s not quite the man he once was, he’s still one of the top pitchers in the game.  You generally think of a workhorse when he comes to mind, and that’s what he was last season.  He led the team in Ks (197) and was second in IP with 200.  He did miss a little time last year, for the first time in a long time, and made only 28 starts.  He still surpassed 200 IP and amassed 15 Wins to go with his solid 3.38 ERA.  He keeps guys off base (1.14 WHIP and 238 BAA) and wins a lot of games.  He’s past his prime, but as long as his velocity is not down significantly (he’s always been a slow starter) then there is nothing to worry about with this ace.  I think another 15 Win season with a sub-3.50 ERA and 200 IP/Ks is in the offing.  Arguably, the real ace last season was Hiroki Kuroda.  He led the team with 16 Wins, a 3.32 ERA and 219 IP last season in 33 starts with 3 complete games and 2 shutouts.  He was phenomenal.  No one thought he’d be this good.  He’s not overpowering as his 249 BAA and 167 Ks show.  But he doesn’t beat himself (1.17 WHIP) and keeps men from scoring.  I think to expect another season like this would be a mistake, but clearly Kuroda has what it takes to be a solid pitcher, even in the AL East.  Think 12 Wins with a 3.50 ERA and 180 IP.  Andy Petite came back to the diamond last season and was a welcome addition in pinstripes.  In 12 starts, he was 5-4 with a 2.87 ERA.  That’s fantastic.  His peripherals looked great (1.14 WHIP, 232 BAA) and he still had some good heat (69 Ks in 75 IP).  He slotted to be the number 3 starter again this year.  If he can stay healthy, we should see 25+ starts for the veteran with double-digit wins and an ERA around 3.25.  Phil Hughes is slotted to be the 4th starter this year.  And you never know what to expect from him.  One year he wins 18 games.  The next he turns in an ERA over 5.  Last season was okay, but not great.  He did tie for the team lead with 16 Wins, but also had 13 Losses. His 4.23 ERA wasn’t great and both his BAA and WHIP were a bit higher than the league average.  Who knows what this season will bring?  But the Yankees would be happy with another season of double-digit wins and perhaps dropping that ERA closer to 4.  And he could break 200 IP this season.  The 5th starter spot will go to Ivan Nova.  One of the few young players on this team, Nova endured some growing pains in his second season.  He still won 12 games in 28 starts, but had an ERA of 5.02.  Hitters hit 288 against him and his WHIP was nearly double the league average.  He’s still young and getting better, but the Yankees need him to play a lot better, or else he may lose that 5th starter slot as the year progresses to another youngster, David Phelps.  The bullpen has always been solid since 1996ish.  The reason is because Mariano Rivera, the greatest closer of all time, has locked down the 9th and the Yankees went from there.  But last season a tragic injury ended Rivera’s season after only 9 games.  He was great in those 9 games, going 5 for 6 in Save opportunities with a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.  Hiss BAA was 200 and he struck out 8 in 8 IP.  Nothing to be surprised about.  Rafael Soriano was fantastic in his relief, notching 42 Saves and turning in a 2.26 ERA.  But he turned that into a big deal to close in Washington, so the Rivera insurance policy is now gone.  The new insurance policy is likely set up man David Robertson.  He missed some time due to injury, but still pitched in 65 games to a 2.67 ERA with 81 Ks in 60 IP.  He’s a great setup man, and may be the closer of the future after Mariano calls it a career in this, his last season.  The rest of the bullpen is solid with Boone Logan, Joba Chamberlain, and Cody Eppley.  Young David Phelps is the long man who can spot start.  It’s not the best bullpen out there, but it’s solid.

2013 Prediction:

The Yankees are in a re-building mode.  However, they will never re-build due to an ill-conceived mission statement that states they will contend each year.  That’s not the way baseball works anymore, no matter how much money you have.  And at this point, that seems to be the only strength this organization has.  They need to get younger and start developing players.  Instead of throwing all that money at overpriced veterans whose best days are behind them (Wells, Hafner, Ichiro) perhaps they can spend that money on scouting and player development and learn to win games like most the other teams in the league.  For this season, the Yankees look like one of the worst teams in their division.  I would be surprised if they make the playoffs, especially seeing how good the Blue Jays got (I still believe in them), looking at the talent the Rays have, considering the Orioles success last season with essentially the same team and the Red Sox re-build a few steps ahead of New York’s.  I’m picking them to finish last.  Hopefully it will be a wake up call for Yankees fans to urge their team to change the way they go about their business.  If it is, then this team has enough resources to make this re-build very short.  But if they continue to chase the shortcut solutions, I don’t see this team being nearly as successful in this decade as it was in the last two.

Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Colorado Rockies 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Baseball is in full swing.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I started with the AL West, then moved the NL East, NL Central and am now finishing up the NL West.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the last NL West team on my list is the Colorado Rockies.

Projected Starting Lineup

C-        Wilin Rosario
1B-      Todd Helton
2B-      Josh Rutledge
SS-      Troy Tulowitzki
3B-      Jordan Pacheco
LF-      Carlos Gonzalez
CF-      Dexter Fowler
RF-      Michael Cuddyer

Starting Rotation:      Jorge De La Rosa, Jhoulys Chacin, Juan Nicasio, Jeff Francis, Jon                                                 Garland

Bullpen:                      Rafael Betancourt, Matt Belisle, Wilton Lopez, Rex Brothers,                                           Edgmer Escalona, Adam Ottavino, Chris Volstad

Projected Batting Order

CF-      Dexter Fowler
2B-      Josh Rutledge
LF-      Carlos Gonzalez
SS-      Troy Tulowitzki
RF-      Michael Cuddyer
1B-      Todd Helton
C-        Wilin Roasrio
3B-      Jordan Pacheco


The Rockies had a tough season last year.  They were easily one of the worst teams in the big leagues.  Their hitters were stout, as always.  And any hitter who plays in Coors sees a nice offensive bump.  Similarly any pitcher that pitches in Coors sees their numbers fall a little bit.  Unfortunately for the Rockies, the pitchers they employ saw their numbers fall a lot, and those same pitchers were also bad on the road.  The simple fact is, these pitchers aren’t that good, no matter where they pitch. Until this team can learn how to pitch, then they won’t be winning any time soon.

The Rockies were, once again, one of the top offensive teams in baseball.  Part of it is their ballpark.  But the other part is management knowing that they play in an offensively minded park and building an offensive team that can exploit it.  They were great offensively in a year where their best offensive player, Troy Tulowitzki, missed the majority of the season with an injury.  Young Jordan Pacheco was the leading hitter for this team going 309 in 132 games.  He seems to be a singles hitter with little power (5 HR) or speed (7 SB) but there is nothing wrong with a guy who hits 300.  If he can keep that up over a full season (and he was close to full last year) then I think we may see a little more power and speed to go with solid R and RBI numbers.  The HR leader on this club was catcher Wilin Rosario who slugged 28 in only 117 games.  Very impressive, even in Coors Field.  He hit 270 with that power, driving in 71 and scoring 67.  If stops trying to steal bases (4 out of 9) then he’ll be in much better shape.  It’s a small sample size, but as he’s still hitting in a solid order in a great offensive ballpark, I think we can expect 30 HR in a full season, possibly more.  The best overall hitter on this team was Carlos Gonzalez, who is one of their best hitters even when Troy Tulowitzki is around.  He hit 303 with 22 HR, 85 RBI, 89 R and 20 SB.  He’s an all around monster, one of the best players in the game and is a core player in this order.  He hits third, one spot in front of Tulo and brings power, speed and a plus AVG.  I’d expect another season around 300 with 20+ HR, 80+ RBI, 85+ R and 15-20 SBs.  After Gonzalez, the Rockies really need healthy seasons from Tulo and Michael Cuddyer.  Tulo played in only 47 games with 8 HR and a 287 AVG.  If he returns to his norms, expect 280-300 with 20-25 HR, around 100 RBI, 80+ R and 15-20 SB.  Similar to Carlos Gonzalez except at shortstop.  Michael Cuddyer was healthy longer playing in 101 games last year.  His AVG was down from the others at 260, but he still popped 16 HR with 50+ RBI and R and 8 SB.  A full season of that would have been 20+ easily with 75 RBI, 70 R and 15 SB.  Expect similar numbers, with maybe an uptick in AVG (270 region) but a slow drop in SB (closer to 10).  CarGo, Tulo and Cuddyer are the heart of this order.  Rosario and Pacheco are bottom of the order bats who can be a plus.  Todd Helton is the veteran who is on the decline.  If healthy (which he wasn’t last year) then I’d expect his AVG to climb a lot, but more than 10 HR would be surprising at this point.  Think 260 with 8 HR, but good clubhouse leadership.  The real breakout player in Denver last year was Dexter Fowler.  Fowler hit 300 with a whopping 389 OBP.  He’s not incredibly fast (12 out of 17 SB) but delivered plus pop (13 HR) and great R numbers (72).  He only played in 143 games, but when healthy, I’d expect 85+ R, with a 15/15 line and 300 again.  He’s the spark that makes this offense go.  And it’s deep.  1-8 in this batting order can do damage, and that doesn’t even take into account the depth they have with Eric Young Jr on the bench (316 with 14 SB in 98 games), Tyler Colvin’s power (290 with 18 HR in 136 games) and Josh Rutledge.  This Rockies team can hit the ball, especially at home but also on the road.  Scoring runs won’t be a problem this year.

The real problem in Colorado is keeping other teams from scoring runs.  For reference, no pitcher on this club qualified for the ERA title.  The reason for that is the Rockies were so bad on the mound, that they tried a new thing where each guy threw like 70 pitches in a game and they had a 4 man rotation.  It did not work.  If a pitcher is bad, he’s going to be as bad in 3 innings as he is in 9.  It was a good thought, but it didn’t work.  These guys are just bad pitchers.  The bad news for the Rockies is that it doesn’t look much better coming into this season.  They will point to the fact that they were missing their ace, Jorge De La Rosa for pretty much all of last year.  He only made 3 starts before being shut down due to injury.  In addition, they only had half a season of their number 2 man, Jhoulys Chacin.  But, the guys behind them weren’t great.  In fact, the Rockies didn’t have a single pitcher make as many as 25 starts.  Jeff Francis was closest with 24.  He was 6-7 with a 5.48 ERA.  Alex White and Drew Pomeranz joined Francis as the only guys to break the 20 start barrier, but they were equally bad going 2-9 (both of them had the same record, that’s not combined) with a 4.93 and 5.51 ERA respectively.   Of those 3 starters, only Jeff Francis figures to break into the starting rotation this season barring injury.  Jorge De La Rosa will be the ace, but no one is expecting much.  I’d think his season would be successful if he kept his ERA under 4.50 and made 30 starts.  But we’ll see.  Chacin is the number 2 man, and I’m expecting just as little from him.  He was 3-5 with a 4.43 in 14 games last year, and was easily their best pitcher.  That’s how bad the pitching situation is in Colorado.  The good news is that Pomeranz is young and has a bright future.  The Rockies sent him to the minors to work on a few things, among them getting his confidence back after being shelled in the majors.  Juan Nicasio is going to be the number 3 man in the Mile High City.  He went 2-3 with a 5.28 in 11 starts last year.  It gets worse.  The fourth spot in this rotation will go to veteran Jon Garland who didn’t play in the majors last season.  His last full season was in 2010 with the Padres and he went 14-12 with a 3.47.  Then he went to the Dodgers the next season where he was 1-5 with a 4.33.  He then went down to shoulder surgery losing the rest of the season and being bought out of his contract by the Dodgers.  He signed minor league deals with the Indians and Mariners before pitching well in the Spring for Seattle.  Last spring.  But he wasn’t guaranteed a roster spot and asked for his release.  Now with the Rockies, we have no idea what this guy will bring to the table.  But anything north of double digit wins or anything south of an ERA of 5 will be welcome in Denver.  This starting rotation may be the worst in baseball and the bullpen isn’t much better.  Rafael Betancourt locks down the back end of it and led the team with 31 Saves.  His 2.81 ERA was solid as was his 1.13 WHIP and 241 BAA.  He’s not overpowering, but still strikes out a guy an inning and is a veteran who consistently gets the job done.  His Save potential is limited by the few games his team wins, but he isn’t a problem.  In fact, if he’s good in the first half, we may see him shipped off to a contender around the trade deadline, which of course would make his Save numbers plummet, but he’d still be a valuable middle reliever.  Matt Belisle was okay as a set up man with 26 Holds.  His 3.71 ERA was high for a reliever.  And his 282 BAA and 1.36 WHIP were well above average.  You worry when he goes out there.  And with only 69 Ks in 80 innings, it’s not like he’s an overpowering pitcher who’s great or wild.  He’s just inconsistent.  And he’s probably their second best arm.  Rex Brothers actually led the team with 8 Wins, but he’s strictly a middle reliever and had 0 starts last year.  He was second on the team with 18 Holds and led the club with 83 Ks in 67 IP.  That’s right, the man with the most strikeouts on this staff was a middle reliever who had 83 Ks.  Bad, bad, bad.  The rest of this bullpen is either underwhelming or has very little experience with Wilton Lopez headlining the remaining back of the rotation arms and former starter Chris Volstad getting a shot as a long reliever/spot starter.  Perhaps it’s not quite as bad as the starters, but would be if they had to throw more innings.  As good as this offense can be, they won’t go anywhere with this weight of a pitching staff dragging them down.

2013 Prediction:

This team is not very good.  And, they are also in an awkward position.  They have a lot of bad pitchers paired with a strong offense.  However many of their offensive stars are in their prime, while their pitchers are on both sides of it.  That doesn’t make them good candidates to re-build or to go for it now.  The fact is, they have a lot of quality players that will likely lead them to a 4th or 5th place finish in their division.  They were last in 2012.  They may make the jump to 4th in 2013 with a healthy Tulowitzki leading them, but ultimately they won’t even remotely sniff the playoffs or the division title.  This team is moving towards re-building with some youth in the pitching staff and the looming retirement of Todd Helton.  But the Rockies need to be solvent soon, or the money they promised to Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki will be wasted on a decade of seasons like this one:  great offense and bad pitching landing them near the bottom of the standings.