Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Baltimore Orioles 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Baseball is well underway and I’m still breaking down teams.  Better late than never.  After starting with the AL West, I’ve knocked out the entire National League before moving back to the AL East to finish the Junior Circuit.  Breaking teams down based on last year’s standings, the second team in the AL East I’ll take a look at will be the Baltimore Orioles.

Projected Starting Lineup

C-        Matt Wieters
1B-      Chris Davis
2B-      Brian Roberts
SS-      JJ Hardy
3B-      Manny Machado
LF-      Nate McClouth
CF-      Adam Jones
RF-      Nick Markakis
DH-     Nolan Reimold

Starting Rotation:      Wei Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Jason Hammel, Jake Arrieta,                                          Chris Tillman, Tommy Hunter

Bullpen:                    Jim Johnson, Pedro Strop, Darren O’Day, Troy Patton, Brian Matusz

Projected Batting Order

2B-      Brian Roberts
CF-      Adam Jones
RF_     Nick Markakis
1B-      Chris Davis
C-        Matt Wieters
SS-      JJ Hardy
3B-      Manny Machado
DH-     Nolan Reimold
LF-      Nate McClouth


The Baltimore Orioles may have been the most surprising team in baseball last season.  It was up there between the Orioles and Athletics, but with the Orioles lacking success longer than the A’s, I’m giving them the edge in the biggest surprise success contest.  Widely considered to be the worst team in the best division in baseball, the Orioles had an incredible run last year, with the best record in one games and an overachieving group of youngsters that ousted the Red Sox and Rays and won the Wildcard in the AL East.  However, there are questions about whether they could do it again.  Their run differential was historically bad last year and their 1-run game record will be nearly impossible to repeat.  But the chemistry on this team is great and Buck Showalter has these guys believing they can play with the best teams in baseball.  And with their success last year and subsequent playoff appearance and win over the Rangers in the Wildcard round it’s hard to argue with him.  It’ll be tough for the Orioles to repeat, but no one thinks they can do it more than the guys wearing Orioles uniforms. 

This offense was good last year, and they need it to be better this year.  As I previously mentioned, the Orioles had a crazy run differential last year.  They were 18 games over 500 but were outscored by 21 runs.  They won 27 games by 1 run and 22 by 2 runs.  They’d like to see that offense play a little more consistently, though they are hardly the issue.  Adam Jones was the batting champ of this team last year, hitting 287.  That’s part of the issue the Orioles face.  They really don’t have anyone who hits 300 or better.  Perhaps someone will do it this year and Adam Jones would be my bet, though Nick Markakis would be another good bet as he hit 298 in 104 games.  But Jones was always a good player and took a step towards greatness last year.  He carried this team into the playoffs with the high AVG, 32 HR, 82 RBI, 16 SB and a team leading 103 R.  He’s a top of the order bat who hits second a lot, but could be a great man in the 3 hole as well.  In a pinch he could lead off.  He likely won’t ever steal 30 bases, though 20 is a possibility, but everything else he does is great.  30 HR power is for real, the RBIs speak for themselves (and in the middle of the order that likely goes over 100), the speed is good and he won a Gold Glove last season.  This guy does it all and is a leader on this team.  And we saw his skills in the WBC as he was one of the few hitters who played well for team USA.  I’m thinking another season of 285 with 25+ HR, 80+ RBI, 90+ R and 15 SB.  The power leader for this team was Chris Davis, who slugged 33 HR last season and led the team with 85 RBI.  He was considered a bit of a bust in Texas, as a guy with great power but someone who couldn’t put it all together at the plate and was a detriment in the field.  But he changed minds last year, getting a chance in Baltimore and slugging all those HR with a 270 AVG and playing a solid first, third and left field.  He won’t win any Gold Gloves, but will be an adequate first baseman this year and has gotten off to a torrid start.  There is no doubt in my mind that he can surpass 30 HR again, and likely put up a decent AVG.  Think 260+ with 30+ HR, 85 RBI and 75 R.  Very similar to last season.  The other two middle of the order bats will be Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters.  Markakis has been a long-time Oriole and fan favorite for years.  He never became a superstar, but his consistency was extremely impressive as he would hit 275 with 20+ HR, 75+ RBI, 75+ R and 15+ SB each season while playing a great right field.  He’s very similar to Adam Jones, though not quite the defender he is.  Jones is great while Markakis may only be very good, but if he’s healthy this guy can be counted on to play like he always does, and consistency like that is worth a lot in this game of ups and downs.  Matt Wieters will spend most of his time hitting 5th and crouching behind the plate, though he’ll be spelled as a DH from time to time.  Wieters hasn’t quite lived up to his potential yet and struggled last season hitting 249.  But he was third on the team with 23 HR and second with 83 RBI.  Perhaps he’ll never blossom into a superstar.  But his bat plays and scouts still think he can be a man who reaches the 300 plateau.  I’m thinking he’s more of a 275 hitter, but even that has been out of reach for him.  I don’t know if he gets there this year, but he’ll be much closer than 249.  Think 265+ with 20+ HR and 80+ RBI.  He’ll likely never hit 30 bombs, but is great behind the plate and 20+ HR from a catcher is nice to have on any team.  That’s the core of this offense.  The others support these guys in different ways.  They’d like to think Brian Roberts can come back healthy, but he’s already hurt and hasn’t been healthy in years.  There is no way to know what he could do if healthy and unfortunately at this point you have to assume he’ll get hurt.  We will likely see a lot of Alexi Casilla, which is why they went out and signed a high caliber backup for second base, knowing that Roberts can’t always stay healthy.  With Roberts out, you’ll likely see Nate McLouth lead off in Baltimore.  McLouth hit 241 with 7 HR, 20 RBI, 39 R and 12 SB.  His All Star season in Pittsburgh in 2008 where he was a 20/20 man seems like an aberration.  The Braves traded for him after that season, and he bounced around struggling in Atlanta until last season when the Pirates re-signed him to be a fourth outfielder.  He only played in 34 games with the Pirates and really struggled hitting 140.  But Baltimore took a flier on him needing bats for their playoff push.  And he found some new life there, hitting 268 with a 342 OBP out of the leadoff spot.  He hit all 7 of his HR, 18 of his 20 RBI and stole all 12 of his bases in Baltimore while playing a solid left field.  He’ll leadoff for them this season with Brian Roberts spending time on the DL.  At short you have J.J. Hardy, who is now expected to do nothing other than play good defense and hit the ball deep.  He’s always had good power, but it was limited as he tried to improve his contact rate.  The defense was always top notch.  So, in Baltimore, they gave him a different role letting him hit in the bottom of the lineup and telling him to swing for the fences.  It worked as he cracked 28 HR last season.  And the 238 AVG was fine for a number 7 hitter.  He’s joined on the left side of the infield by young Manny Machado, a shortstop by trade who has taken over third base with Chris David at first and Mark Reynolds out of town.  Machado hit 262 with 7 HR in only 51 games.  They love his talent and can’t wait to see a full season of him in Baltimore.  Nolan Reimold is serviceable as a DH and that’s the offense the Orioles will put out there.  They are young and talented.  They may not be the best out there, but they are above average and getting better each season.

Baltimore’s leading starter last year was Japanese import Wei-Yin Chen.  Chen led the team with 12 Wins, a 4.02 ERA and 154 Ks.  His 32 starts also led the team.  And while those numbers don’t seem great, it was good for his first season in the majors and the only reason he was the leader is because he was the only pitcher who qualified in the counting stats.  The best starter in Baltimore was probably Jason Hammel who went 8-6 in his time as an Oriole with a 3.43 ERA.  He only started 20 games, which limited his numbers and made him ineligible for the ERA title.  But he played very well with his WHIP and BAA both slightly better than league average.  Chen’s numbers were right at the league average.   After those 2 stabilizing the rotation, the Orioles trotted out 7 more starters who didn’t have the success that Chen and Hammel enjoyed.  Tommy Hunter matched Hammel with 20 starts, but greatly struggled with a 5.45 ERA and BAA of 302.  Jake Arieta was 3-9 with a 6.20 ERA in his 18 starts.  After those guys struggled, Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter turned to some other options.  The first was Chris Tillman, who has faded in the eyes of many since his highly touted days as a prospect.  But he got the job done in this tough division last year going 9-3 in 15 games with a stellar 2.93 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 207 BAA.  Those are ace numbers.  They hope he can do that over a full season.  The next man they turned to was Miguel Gonalez.  He went 9-4 in 15 games with a 3.25 ERA.  Gonazelz and Tillman have now moved up to become middle of the order starters behind Chen and Hammel and have left Tillman and Arieta to fight for the 5th spot.  The loser will join Brian Matusz (another highly touted prospect who didn’t pan out) in the bullpen with Jim Johnson.  And speaking of shockers, how bout the season Jim Johnson had at Camden Yards.  He had 51 Saves to go with a 2.49 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 220 BAA.  He’s not a big strikeout guy, and you really tend to like that in a closer.  The true outcomes are easier to count on.  But he got the job done and played very well last season.  No one saw this success coming, and it’s tough to believe he can do it again.  But as well as he played last season, and the peripheral numbers support the big ones, makes me think he should have close to the same success.  Think 35+ Saves with a competitive ERA.  After him, this bullpen doesn’t look great on paper (frankly Johnson isn’t jaw dropping on paper).  Pedro Stop was solid with 24 Holds and a 2.44 ERA.  But the rest of their top relievers are no longer on the team (Luis Ayala, Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom).  They hope that Darren O’Day and Troy Patton can step up and play solidly with the whichever odd starters join them to play solidly and support this offense better this season.

2013 Prediction:

The Orioles are a tricky team to predict this year.  Their success last year looks fluky, but a closer examination shows that they have talent and it’s young and should, theoretically, get better with age.  Their pitching isn’t great, and pitching wins championships.  And their hitters look like they could be prone to streaks.  And while youth is good, sometimes it means inexperience.  The good news about that is this team has playoff experience from last season, including a playoff win.  So what does that mean?  I don’t know.  This team confuses me.  But, pressed to make a decision, I’d have to say that I don’t think this team has what it takes to win the division this year.  Nor do I think they will in the Wildcard.  I’m picking them to finish in fourth, as a good team, but well out of the playoffs.  Obviously waiting this long into the season to publish this gives me a chance to edit my picks.  I won’t do that, though I acknowledge that this team is better than I thought, and I probably put them too low.  But in a pinch, I’d still have to say they finish outside the playoffs, despite their early success.  

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