Well it’s that time. We’re
about a third of the way through the 2013 season. And I’m finishing up my team breakdowns. After starting with the AL West, I’ve knocked
out the entire National League and have moved on to the AL East. This year I’m ranking the teams based on last
year’s standings which means the third team I’ll look at will be the Tampa Bay
Rays.
Projected Starting Lineup
C- Jose Molina
1B- James Loney
2B- Kelly Johnson
SS- Yunel Escobar
3B- Even Longoria
LF- Matt Joyce
CF- Desmond
Jennings
RF- Ben Zobrist
DH- Luke Scott
Starting Rotation: David
Price, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Cobb, Roberto Hernandez
Bullpen: Fernando
Rodney, Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee, Cesar Ramos, Jamey Wright,
Brandon Gomes
Projected Batting Order
CF- Desmond
Jennings
SS- Yunel Escobar
3B- Evan Longoria
RF- Ben Zobrist
LF- Matt Joyce
DH- Luke Scott
C- Jose Milina
2B- Kelly Johnson
The Rays had a roller coaster year last season. After slogging through the first half and
losing their best player, their pitching kicked it into high gear and took them
to within a breath of the playoffs.
Ultimately they finished in third place behind the Yankees and Orioles
and just missed out on playoff baseball.
This year, they hope their pitching will be strong all year and that
they will have enough offense to take them not only to the playoffs, but
hopefully to an AL East division title.
This team was built around a strong pitching staff. This offense doesn’t necessarily inspire fear
in the hearts of their opponents. With
Evan Longoria missing over half the season, Ben Zobrist was the leading hitter
on this club with a 270 AVG. He also had
20 HR, 74 RBI, 88 R and 14 SB. That’s
fantastic output from someone who was essentially a super-utility man. He plays right field, first, short and third.
They love his ability to play all over
the field and fill in for people who need days off or get hurt. However he is still a starter and will be on
the field for every game, we just don’t know what position he’ll be playing on
any given day. BJ Upton led the team in
HR and RBI with 28 and 78 respectively.
He’s now an Atlanta Brave.
Zobrist was second, but then Carlos Pena was third with 19 HR. He’s now a Houston Astro. The two guys tied for fourth were Matt Joyce
and Evan Longoria who only played in 74 games.
And that helps illustrate part of the issue with Tampa Bay’s offense. While there are great players and playmakers,
there just aren’t a lot of stars and there is next to no power. Matt Joyce is a solid player who had 17 HR to
go with a 241 AVG. He’s likely the
starting left fielder on this team this year, but would be a 4th
outfielder on other clubs. He gets the
job done, but there is little upside with him.
With Joyce in left and Zobrist starting in right (assuming it’s a
typical day where everyone is healthy) then Desmond Jennings is the center
fielder and they need him to play much closer to his potential. He played in 135 games last year with an
impressive 13 HR (impressive for someone with his skill set). But he only hit 246 with a 314 OBP. That’s not what the Rays are looking for from
a leadoff man. He did steal 31 bases and
score 85 R, but if he had upped his AVG to what a traditional leadoff man bats
we could be looking at 40 SB and 100 R easily.
That’s where they need him to be this season, with an AVG over 270 and
an OBP closer to 350. However the
biggest need in Tampa revolves around the health Evan Longoria. He was very good in his 74 games with a 289
AVG, 17 HR and 55 RBI. But he’s got to
stay healthy, something he hasn’t really been able to do to well. He’s considered one of the better hitters in
the league, but has never had a 300 AVG and hasn’t driven in 100 R since 2010. If he can stay healthy, I’m thinking 280 with
25 HR, 100 RBI and 90 R. He won’t run
much anymore and I think 10 SB would be his ceiling. But that was always a bonus. They need him to
be healthy and drive in R. If he can do
that then this offense has a chance. The
rest of the lineup isn’t awe-inspiring.
Luke Scott is the DH and can chip in 15 HR if healthy, but only hit
about 230. (229 with 14 HR in 96 games
last year). They took a shot on 3
players that others have given up on in Tampa, and each of them is playing a
key infield position. At first, we have
James Loney who hit 249 with 6 HR in LA and Boston last year. He’s seen his HR and RBI total drop for 4
straight years and his days of 280 are no longer assured. His AVG has been below that mark for 2 of the
last 3 years, and for a first baseman with no power, you have to hit for a good
AVG. However, coming out with this
breakdown so late into the season, I have the benefit of seeing that Loney is
having a comeback season. I don’t like
to change my initial thoughts, since this is supposed to be a pre-season
breakdown (yeah I’m really behind). So
my initial thought was 250 with 10 HR, but I can obviously see that’s not the
case. However I did think that if anyone
could work some magic on Loney, it would be Joe Maddon. So in that point I’m right. At second we have Kelly Johnson. He had a full, healthy season in Toronto last
year and hit 225. He did have 16 HR and
14 SB, but that doesn’t play with that AVG.
He looks like a great potential number 2 hitter, but can’t really do
that with a 225 AVG. He still walks a
lot, but his Ks have climbed the last 2 years and there may not be a lot of
that old potential All Star left in him.
He may be a 15/15 man again, but 240 might be his ceiling. The good news is that this up the middle
defense has some experience together. In
Atlanta, Kelly Johnson played second on teams with Yunel Escobar at short. They then met up again last year playing the
middle infield positions with the Blue Jays.
So they should turn double plays just fine. But that may be it. Escobar, one of the cockiest and least
likable individuals in the majors, found himself passed around like a sandwich
nobody wanted this offseason. He was
shipped out of Toronto in the big deal with the Marlins, and then immediately
flipped to Tampa Bay. The book on him is
that he’s always been talented, but was way too proud of his potential. He was a bad teammate who only made headlines
when he offended people with an insensitive remark in his eye black. The day Alex Gonzalez arrived in Atlanta
after being obtained from Toronto in a trade for Escobar, the Braves gave him a
standing ovation upon entering the locker room.
This guy is way too proud of his skills, which really have been average
at best. He’s got a great arm, but makes
a ton of mental mistakes in the field.
He never had much speed and his power hasn’t blossomed. And his AVG isn’t anywhere near where you’d
think it would be, especially considering his demeanor. It’s like having A-Rod in your locker room,
except this A-Rod has the skill set of an Eduardo Nunez. He hit 290 in 2011, but only 253 last
year. He lost 2 HR off his total despite
playing in 12 more games. And his 51 RBI
and 58 R were okay. He may hit second in
this offense. And maybe playing with Joe
Maddon and being a part of that great Ray clubhouse will make him a better
player and teammate. But for the time
being he looks like a washed up veteran who is a bad clubhouse presence and
never lived up to his potential. The
bench isn’t deep and catcher Jose Molina is a glove first man. The fact is, Evan Longoria could be a
star. Desmond Jennings could be a menace
at the top of the order. And Ben Zobrist
is a good player who can do a lot to help a team. But they need to stay healthy, have better
years and get some support from guys who have a lot of limitations. In the end the Rays hope they’ve built the
kind of offense that can consistently score 3-5 runs a game and win off of
strong pitching. But on a day when
that’s not enough, this offense doesn’t look like the kind that can get you 7
runs. Perhaps there won’t be many days
like that. But if there are, then this
team is in trouble.
The good news in Tampa, is that this pitching staff is among
the best in baseball. David Price was
the AL Cy Young Award Winner last year and he led this team with 20 Wins and a
2.56 ERA. He struck out 205 in 211
IP. He was the epitome of an ace, which
is likely why he won the Cy Young.
However one of his teammates was able to out pitch him in 2 major
pitching categories. James Shields
actually logged more innings and led the team with 223 Ks. He also had a 15-10 record to go with a 3.52
ERA. He was an ace as well, but was
dealt to the Kansas City Royals this offseason for super prospect Wil Myers. Myers is an immediate upgrade in left field
for the Rays, but won’t join the team until at least June, so the financially
strapped Rays can keep his arbitration clock in check. With Shields gone, the new number 2 man in
town is Matt Moore, who was another highly touted prospect, one of the many
highly touted pitching prospects in this organization. In his first full season he went 11-11 with a
3.81 ERA. He struck out 175 in 177 IP,
but walked too many guys resulting in a 1.35 WHIP. However his BAA was strong at 238. So if he can cut down on the walks, we should
see his ERA drop closer to 3 and his win total increase into the area of about
15. He’s future star with great strikeout
potential. The number 4 starter last
year was former rookie of the year Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson was 10-11 with a great 3.10
ERA. With an ERA like that, you wonder
how Hellickson could have lost 11 games.
However, you also begin to wonder about that 3.10 ERA when you see that
his 1.25 WHIP and 244 BAA was very AVG.
While that ERA will likely be higher, we should see his Loss total drop
and the Wins could go up. I’m thinking
12 Wins with a 3.50 ERA and only about 7 Losses. With Hellickson becoming a number 3 starter
young Alex Cobb has become the new number 4 man. The Rays seem to have an endless number of
future Cy Young winners coming through their system. And while Alex Cobb doesn’t project like a
David Price, he has tremendous potential and should be a part of this rotation
for years to come. He was 11-9 in 23
starts last season with a 4.03 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 254 BAA. In his first taste of big league action, he
was a very average pitcher. With more
experience he should only get better as his ERA moves closer to 3.50 and his Ks
climb closer to 150. Think double digit wins
again this year. And the last spot in
this rotation goes to Roberto Hernandez, the pitcher formerly known as Fausto
Carmona. He was injured for most of last
season, starting only 3 games and turning in a 7.53 ERA. In his last full season he struggled going
7-15 with a 5.25 ERA. His WHIP was
through the roof and his BAA was 276. He
can’t seem to find his way back to his former All Star self. The Rays took a gamble here, but it’s low
risk. If it works, they have a veteran
presence to eat innings at the back of their rotation. If it doesn’t, then they can turn to one of
the many potential stars in their minor league system. This bullpen is made up of a number of solid
arms, starting with the Rolaids Relief winner Fernando Rodney. Rodney’s season came out of nowhere for the
Rays last season. Rodney had 48 Saves
and an all time record 0.60 ERA. He
struck out 76 in 74 IP, had a 0.78 WHIP and 167 BAA. He was purely unhittable. The question is, can he do it again? No one is sure since this season came out of
nowhere. But he throws gas, and is the
same pitcher this year that he was last year.
He likely won’t be as dominant.
But I think he’ll have another strong season closing games. In addition to Rodney, the Rays have Joel
Peralta and Kyle Farnsworth in the back of the bullpen to set up and be
emergency Save options. The rest of the
pitchers aren’t as noteworthy, but they are young and will hopefully gain some
valuable experience supporting a great starting rotation and strong back of the
bullpen. Pitching wins championships,
and that’s the mantra the Rays have put into place to win this season.
2013 Prediction:
The Rays are a very similar team this year, to last
year. While they lost James Shields,
they still have a fantastic group of starters and some strong bullpen pieces. And they got back a very talented young
outfielder, who could give the Rays a third All Star in their talented
outfield. They took some shots on 3
different infielders. While it could
work out, it likely won’t hurt them if it doesn’t work out. Essentially this team is at least as good as
last year’s group, with a shot to be better.
I think they are playoff caliber, even if they don’t win the
division. I’m picking them to finish
second in the division, but definitely play some October baseball.
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