Well it’s that time.
Baseball is a third of the way through the season. And we are still knocking out these team
breakdowns. After starting with the AL
West, I’ve knocked out the whole NL and have moved on to the AL East. The fourth team I’ll tackle in the East will
be the Toronto Blue Jays.
Toronto Blue Jays:
2012 Record: 79-83 4th in AL East
Projected Starting Lineup
C- J.P.
Arencibia
1B- Edwin
Encarnacion
2B- Emilio
Bonifacio
SS- Jose Reyes
3B- Brett Lawrie
LF- Melky Cabrera
CF- Colby Rasmus
RF- Jose Bautista
DH- Adam Lind
Starting Rotation: R.A.
Dickey, Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, Ricky Romero
Bullpen: Casey
Janssen, Darren Oliver, Sergio Santos, Brett Cecil, Steve Delabar, Esmil
Rogers
Projected Batting Order
SS- Jose Reyes
LF- Melky Cabrera
RF- Jose Bautista
1B- Edwin
Encarnacion
3B- Brett Lawrie
DH- Adam Lind
C- J.P.
Arencibia
CF- Colby Rasmus
2B- Emilio
Bonifacio
The Toronto Blue Jays took a step back last year. This team has been lurking just outside the
playoff picture for years, always a step back from being a part of October. GM Alex Anthopolous built a talented young
team that was getting closer and closer to playoff caliber. However injuries completely derailed those
plans as the Blue Jays spent the majority of the year without Jose Bautista and
the rest of their playmakers. This year, they are still unhealthy despite
pulling off the biggest offseason trade as the Marlins punted on the next
decade and sent the majority of their stars to Canada. Toronto gladly took them on, to add a bunch
of quality veterans to an already strong core, and then adding NL Cy Young
Winner R.A. Dickey. This team has a lot
of hype around them and I picked them to win the AL East. However, in getting this breakdown out late,
I can see that the injuries to Reyes and Johnson have taken quite a toll, not
to mention the ineffectiveness from other stars and the Blue Jays are starting to
look at this season as one they’d like to forget.
With the loss of Bautista last year, the door opened for
another hitter to step up. And one
definitely answered the call. It was
Edwin Encarnacion who had an incredible season.
Encarnacion led the team with a 280 AVG, 42 HR and 110 RBI. He also had a team leading 93 R and a 384
OBP. He was a true star putting together
an MVP caliber season. He’s always had
good power, but really put it all together last year. It’s unlikely that he can play like that
again in 2013, but if he can stay healthy and hit above 260, then I think 30 HR
and 90+ RBI should be a cinch. The best
hitter on this team is still Jose Bautista, who was able to club 27 HR in only
92 games. The 241 AVG isn’t what we are
used to, but he was injured for part of those games. He’s not really a 300 hitter. I’m thinking a healthy season should see 270
with 30-35 HR easy, and perhaps 100 RBI too.
The Blue Jays have two guys with the exact same skill set, and that
skill set has 40 HR, 120 RBI potential.
That’s nice. There has obviously
been a lot of turnover on this team now with all the new guys joining Toronto
via trade. They have a new middle
infield. Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar
have been replaced with Emilio Bonifacio and Jose Reyes. You have to think that’s an upgrade,
especially on the base paths. Bonifacio
struggled through an injury-plagued season last year, playing only 64 games. He still snagged 30 bags in that time with a
258 AVG and 330 OBP. His last full
season saw a 296 AVG with 40 SB. In
Toronto, he should get a lot of time all over the field, playing multiple
positions, and if healthy, could steal 40 bags and score 75 R, even hitting 9th. Reyes was the real offensive jewel of the
trade. Even after a down year, he still
hit 287 with 40 SBs and 86 R. He’s been
down with an injury, but if he can come back healthy then he’ll be a key piece
for this team’s offense. Until then, you
might see Bonifacio leading off and upping his SB and R numbers. Another young star to watch is third baseman
Brett Lawrie. He hit 273 with 11 HR, 48
RBI and 73 R in only 125 games last year.
He also swiped 13 bags. He’s a
5-tool player with a bright future. A
lot of people thought he’d have a bigger year, but he still played well in his
limited time. I think a full season
could see 15/15 with a 275 AVG, 75 RBI and 75 R. Perhaps not a super star, but a great all
around player. Beyond those offensive
leaders, we have a lot of talent from guys who aren’t expected to carry the
team. Melky Cabrera was signed to a
1-year deal after his great season was discovered to have been aided by
PEDs. He served his suspension last
season and the Jays hope that he can be an effective number 2 man, perhaps hitting
270 with 15/15 potential, 70 RBI and 80 R.
Behind the plate J.P Arencibia clubbed 18 HR in 102 games. They’d love to see that AVG climb up, but are
happy with him hitting 20 HR in his time catching. Colby Rasmus had a similar season, but has
the tools to hit for a much higher AVG.
But even with his 223 AVG he hit 23 HR with 75 RBI. This year think 250, with 20 HR and 70
RBI. And Adam Lind can also chip in 15
HR if healthy. Lots of power on this
team. And they’ve added speed as
well. I think they’ll be able to score a
lot of runs. And that will be one of
their keys to success.
This pitching staff was not as strong last year. Their “ace”, Ricky Romero, really struggled
with a 5.77 ERA and 9-14 record. That’s
not good. At all. His WHIP was through the roof at 1.67 and
hitters hit 282 against him. He had an
All Star season the year before and has plenty of talent and skill. He should be able to split the difference
with ease, if only because he was so bad last season. Think double digit wins with an ERA around
4. Their best pitcher last season was
Brandon Morrow, who was great in 21 games last year. He finally stopped focusing on the strikeout
and the results were great. He had a
2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP to go with a great 214 BAA. His Ks dropped to 108 in 124 IP, but the
other numbers were much more important.
If he can stay healthy over a full year and has committed to pitching
against contact (to get groundouts) then he could win 15+ games with an ERA
around 3. He’s my Cy Young dark horse,
though now I’m regretting that pick. The
rest of this rotation is new. R.A.
Dickey will be the number 1 starter after his great season. He was 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA in his Cy Young
season. He had a great 1.05 WHIP and 226
BAA. He struck out 230 in 233 IP and
only walked 54, which was fantastic for a knuckleballer. You worry about his continued success,
especially since knuckleballs are incredibly hard to control. But Dickey controls his better, possibly than
any other knuckleballer in history. I
don’t think he’ll be nearly as good this year, considering his age, the type of
pitcher he is and the move to a much tougher division. He could win 15, but I’m putting that as his
ceiling with an ERA around 3.25 and 200 Ks in 210 IP. And if he’s going to get there this year, he
really needs to turn it around. The next
new pitcher in Toronto is Mark Buehrle.
Buehrle was 13-13 with a 3.74 ERA last year. He’s not overpowering and actually throws one
of the slowest pitches in the game. But
he is a wily veteran with great movement on his pitches that can eat innings
(202 last year) and keep runners from scoring.
He doesn’t beat himself, keeping the walks low. So even with a BAA slightly higher than
average (258) his WHIP was still below average at 1.17 due to only 40 BBs. He’s had success in the AL before, but now
has to spend his whole year in the AL East.
Think 12 Wins with an ERA around 4.
Joining Buehrle on the Miami to Toronto flight was Josh Johnson. Johnson was healthy last year after pitching
in only 9 games in 2011. He had a tough
8-14 record, but only a 3.81 ERA. He was
much better than his record with 165 Ks in 191 IP, the sub-4 ERA and a WHIP and
BAA that was merely slightly above average.
The former ERA title winner didn’t return to his All Star form, but is
young and has the ability to pitch like an All Star. Toronto is a much tougher place to pitch than
Miami, but the run support he’ll get will be immeasurably better. And as the number 4 starter, the expectations
are much lower. He’s another guy I’m
putting down for 12 Wins with an ERA around 4, maybe a tick under. He won’t strike out 200, but could pitch 200
innings. Or at least he could have
before that injury. With Dickey and
Morrow up front, Buehrle and Johnson in the middle and Romero taking the 5th
spot (with J.A. Happ there to help if he falters) the Blue Jays really liked
their starting rotation. But, things
never work out as planned, and that rotation has greatly struggled so far this
year. It’s the main reason the Blue Jays
are looking up from the cellar. The
bullpen doesn’t look much better, but there is talent there. The closer role has gone to Casey Janssen,
though Sergio Santos is lurking in the background if he falters. Janssen Saved 22 games with a 2.54 ERA and 67
Ks in 63 IP. He had a fantastic 0.86
WHIP and 195 BAA. Sergio Santos didn’t
play a lot last year, and frankly didn’t play well in his limited
opportunities. But he throws heat and
should be a force in the 7th and 8th innings. In addition the Jays had Steve Delabar who
had 8 Holds and a 3.38 ERA and Darren Oliver with 16 Holds and stellar 2.06
ERA. The back end of the bullpen looks
strong with depth and former starters Brett Cecil and J.A. Happ will be the
long men and spot starters. They are
solid, if unspectacular and there is good depth to this team. The whole pitching staff is solid and will be
supported by a terrific offense. The
Jays hope this will deliver them a ton of Wins and, maybe an AL East title.
2013 Prediction:
The Blue Jays are going for it all this year. And it looks like they chose a good time to
do it. After struggling for years to
make some noise, despite consistent 500 or better finishes, this team put
together a strong core and traded for some great veteran leadership. And of all the time I wish I could take back
I pick I made early in the year, this has to be the one that kills me the
most. I do stand by it, though I now
know it won’t happen. Injuries are
partly to blame. But so is
ineffectiveness. That offense hasn’t
delivered like we thought and the pitching has been atrocious. I do feel good knowing that I didn’t think
Dickey would deliver, but that Morrow pick is making me look foolish. However I don’t think Anthopolous did
anything wrong. He saw the toughest
division in baseball looking weak and winnable.
He was close to contending, but was at least 2 years away before the
trades. So he went for it all. It was a good choice. But you can’t control what the players do on
the field. You can’t keep guys
healthy. And you can’t count on teams
like the Red Sox and Yankees over-performing.
This wasn’t his fault. But it is
what it is. And that’s what I say when I
pick a team to finish in first, that will likely finish in last.
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