Well it’s that time. A
quarter of the season is done and I’m still doing team breakdowns. Hooray procrastination. But we are marching right along here. I started with the AL West, knocked out the
entire NL and have moved back to the junior circuit to examine the AL East. And while I ranked teams alphabetically last
year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings. Using last season’s final standings, the first
team I’ll take a look at will be the New York Yankees.
Projected Starting Lineup
C- Francisco
Cervelli
1B- Mark Teixeira
2B- Robinson Cano
SS- Derek Jeter
3B- Kevin Youkilis
LF- Brett Gardner
CF- Curtis
Granderson
RF- Ichiro Suzuki
DH- Travis Hafner
Starting
Rotation: C.C. Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda,
Andy Petite, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova
Bullpen: Mariano
Rivera, David Robertson, Boone Logan, Joba Chamberlain,
Shawn Kelley, David Phelps, Cody Eppley
Projected Batting Order
LF- Brett Gardner
SS- Derek Jeter
2B- Robinson Cano
1B- Mark Teixeira
CF- Curtis
Granderson
3B- Kevin Youkilis
DH- Travis Hafner
C- Francisco
Cervelli
RF- Ichiro Suzuki
The Yankees are a bit of a mess this season. In addition to fielding one of the oldest and
most expensive teams in baseball, the rest of their division has gotten
younger, while keeping their payroll much lower and, frankly, now look better
than the once mighty “evil empire”. And,
perhaps most importantly, they have had an incredible rash of injuries to start
the year. Now, injuries are a bit of a
freak thing, but no one can argue that the age of the Yankees makes their
players more susceptible to injury, and the lack of quality players being
developed in their minor league system left them largely without capable
backups. The lineup I listed above won’t
play together for a while. The first
move the Yankees made was to sign veteran Kevin Youkilis (off one of the worst
seasons of his career) to a 1-year deal to replace A-Rod, who will miss AT
LEAST half the season to hip surgery, though he could be gone for the whole
year. Not his first hip surgery
btw. They then re-upped Andy Petite and
Hiroki Kuroda to 1-year deals and signed another aging veteran in Travis Hafner
to take over the DH duties. None of
these moves saved them any money or made them any younger. Then, the injuries came. Derek Jeter, who was lost in the playoffs to
a horrific ankle injury, is coming back slower than expected and started the
season on the DL. Curtis Granderson
broke his right forearm early in spring training and is missing the first month
and a half of the season. And Mark
Teixeira partially tore a tendon sheath in his right wrist. I don’t know what it means, but if he needs
surgery he’ll miss a lot of time. Right
now he doesn’t, but as I understand it’s a tricky injury, and even if all goes
well he won’t be back until mid-May. The
point is, the Yankees are very old and fragile and have cobbled together a
lineup of castaways to hold things over until the starters return. They signed free agent Lyle Overbay (who was
unable to find work to this point) to play first. They also contacted the retired Chipper Jones
and Derek Lee, but were re-buffed.
Youkilis will also play some first while Eduardo Nunez fills in at short
and third. (Though, as of this writing,
Nunez was hit by a pitch and is day to day).
In the outfield, Brett Gardner will slide over to left and a committee
of Brennan Boesch (who was cut by Detroit) and Vernon Wells (the man believed
to be the most overpaid player in the game who the Yankees traded for) will
rotate in left. Essentially, this
lineup, which has lost luster even when healthy, looks extremely barren until
the middle of May.
The Captain, Derek Jeter was the team leader in hitting last
year with a 316 AVG. Jeter also chipped
in 15 HR and 99 R to lead this club to a division title. However after his injury in the playoffs, he
expected to be back for the beginning of the season, but wasn’t ready. Then when he got to rehab, he rushed it. As a result he had a setback and won’t
re-join the team until at least August.
He’s getting older each season, and his wheels dwindled even before the
ankle injury. He continues to surprise
people, but another season of 15 HR or double-digit stolen bases will be just
about impossible with 2/3s of the season missed. 300 is a possibility, but I don’t expect any
more than 40 R. The HR leader for the
pinstriped gang was Curtis Granderson with 43.
He also led the team with 106 RBI.
He primarily hit 2nd, which was pretty dumb. The 232 AVG pretty much precludes him from
the upper third of the lineup, and that short porch at the new Yankee stadium
has made him one-dimensional. Assuming
he comes back fully healthy in May I think we will see 30 HR and 80 RBI to go
with a small AVG and a handful of steals.
This should be the year that Girardi moves him into the middle of the
order (5th or 6th) as there are no longer any delusions
that he can hit for AVG and steal bags. The
best hitter on this team is Robinson Cano who hit 313 last season with 33 HR,
94 RBI and 105 R. The only thing this
guy doesn’t do is steal bases. He’s got
a great glove at second and is now the unquestioned leader on this club. He’s pretty much the only Yankee currently
healthy who can hit for power. And if
the Yankees have any hope of making the postseason, he has to have another huge
year, especially early on. The Yankees
lost 112 HR with the departures of Russell Martin, Raul Ibanez, Andruw Jones,
Eric Chavez, Alex Rodriguez (who will be gone a long time), and Nick
Swisher. Add in the loss of Teixeira and
Granderson and that total climbs to 179.
This team doesn’t hit with runners on, can’t manufacture many runs and
is looking very old and mortal. Cano is
the only hope to keep them in contention.
If he performs well (and he should in a walk year) think 310 with 35 HR,
110 RBI and 100 R. Who’s left? Well Teixeira will eventually be back at
first after a season of 251/24/84/66.
You worry about his numbers dropping as he gets older and with this
injury. Recent history hasn’t been kind
to the Gold Glover. Think 250 again with
only 15 HR and 70 RBI in limited ABs.
The only other returning Yankees from last season are in the outfield
and behind the plate. And none of them
were full time for different reasons.
Francisco Cervelli will be the starting catcher. He was hitless in 3 games last year. Brett Gardner will be back in the
outfield. He was originally slated to
move back to left when Granderson returned, but he’s played so well defensively
that Girardi will move Granderson to a corner.
He will likely be the full-time leadoff man this year, though you never
know with Girardi’s endless tinkering.
He only appeared in 16 games last year, but did hit 323. It was a nice start before a season lost to
injury. In his last healthy season (2011)
he hit 259 with 49 SBs. They think he
can be a top of the order bat, but he’s got to get on base more and raise that
AVG. I think he’ll be solid, if
unspectacular. Think 270 with 30 SBs and
75 R. And in right the Yankees have
brought back Ichiro Suzuki. After
trading for the veteran late last year, they watched him take over the team
lead in SBs with 14 in 67 games. He also
hit 322 with 5 HR. I think he would be a
great number 2 hitter, especially in the beginning of the year with all those
injuries, but that’s just me. He may hit
9th, which in the AL is where you put your backup leadoff
candidate. His age is not a strength,
and people point to his struggles in Seattle as proof that he’s over the hill
(261 with 15 SB in 95 games). But it’s important
to remember that the Mariners wanted him to hit 3rd, slugging HR and
try to drive in runs. Despite his
impressive BP power displays, it didn’t translate and that accounted for most
of his struggles. He still had 178 hits
last season and 29 SBs. I see him
hitting in the 280-300 range with 10 HR, 60 RBI, 70 R and 25 SBs. Not as illustrious as we are used to from
him, but strong for a 9th hitter.
That covers all the returning offensive pieces. How about the new guys? Kevin Youkilis was signed to play at least
half a season of third base (probably more).
The thought was when A-Rod did come back, Youk would become part of the
DH rotation, taking his spot DHing but also playing first and third when it was
A-Rod or Teixeira’s turn to DH. In that
way, he’d probably get about 500 ABs for the Yankees. Last year was Youk’s worst season, hitting
235. He did have 19 HR and 60 RBI in
only 122 games, but there is concern he’s been on the decline, especially since
he hasn’t reached 140 games since 2008. His
HR totals have dropped every season from 08 to 2011, though he went from 17 in
2011 to 19 in 2012. So we’ll see what
he’s got left in the tank. The fact is,
the Yankees needed a third baseman. And
their lack of talent in the minors dictated that they pay an aging veteran $10
million dollars this year to not even play a full season. It’s the Yankee way. (PS, Youkilis is currently on the DL). The other full-time starter in the Bronx is
DH Travis Hafner. Hafner signed a huge
contract to DH in Cleveland, then was hurt for most of the contracted
time. Finally free from that contract,
he seemed like a prime candidate to be a Yankee. He signed a much smaller contract this time,
though he wasn’t expected to go higher than about 450 ABs. Injuries may change that, and Yankees fans
hope they will see the Hafner of old, though no one has seen that since about
2007. He hit 228 last year with 12 HR in
66 games. The year before he hit 280
with 13 HR in 94 games. He’s becoming
more one dimensional, and as a lefty in that little league stadium I’d be
surprised if Hafner DIDN’T try to hit it out of the park every time up. I’m thinking anything over 240 would be a
surprise, but 20 HR wouldn’t be. What
else is new in Yankee land? The current
left fielders and first baseman. In left
we have Brennan Boesch, Vernon Wells and Ben Francisco. Boesch was cut by Detroit after hitting 240
with 12 HR and 54 RBI last year. It was
really a bad spring and depth that led to the youngster’s release. He has
recently been sent down to the minors. Instead
of letting young Boesch find his way on a team sorely in need of youth, the
Yankees instead traded for Vernon Wells, who was making $20+ million to sit on
the Angels bench. Wells has been one of
the highest paid busts since Barry Zito and Alfonso Soriano came into
existence. He hit 230 last year with 11
HR and 29 RBI in 77 games. He was
generally the odd man out in the Angels outfield with Bourjous, Hunter and
Trout starting and Trumbo and Morales DHing.
The Angels lost Hunter and Morales this year, but brought in Josh
Hamilton. With Trout, Hamilton and
Bourjous starting, there was no spot for Wells since Trumbo would DH. They were begging a team to step in and take
on the worst contract in the game. The
Yankees happily obliged, taking on $11.5 million of the 21 million he’s owed
this year and being on the hook for $2.4 million of his contract next
year. Now, $11.5 million of a $42
million contract may seem like a drop in the hat, but no one else was willing
to trade for this guy so the Angels were going to eat it. Now the Yankees are paying for about a
quarter of it, and have to hope that he doesn’t reach 400 ABs if their starters
come back healthy. Few teams would
approach $10 million for a backup, but the Yankees have 2 (depending on what
you consider Youkilis to be). At least
they’re consistent. What do I expect of
Wells? Well the last time he reached 130
games he hit 218 with 25 HR and 66 RBI.
I’m thinking 220 this year, with 18 HR.
Everyone can hit ‘em in the new Yankee stadium, but that doesn’t make
them a strong offensive player. He’ll
barely be worth $5 million, much less the $9.5 the Yanks will give him. Ben Francisco will back him up. He’s a 31 year old career backup who hasn’t
done much in the big leagues and has done even less so far this season. And Lyle Overbay is a complete mystery. He’s hit 267 with 3 HR since 2011. He will likely get fewer ABs than anyone
(assuming Tex is healthy), but any lefty can pop double digit HRs in 150 ABs
with the Yanks. Think, 230 with 5
HR. The summation of this is the Yankees
will pay a lot of different guys a lot of money to get very little offensive
support. This team couldn’t hit with
runners on last year, waiting instead for the 3 run homer to bail them out. That won’t be coming this year, and I see this
offense struggling. They will always hit
a lot of HR, but I see their R numbers and team AVG plummeting and maybe
leaving them outside of October baseball.
The one area that looks okay for the Yanks is, interestingly,
the pitching staff. I have never thought
of the Yankees as an organization that is a strong mound group, as developing
pitchers takes years and patience, virtues that don’t come to mind when talking
about the Bombers. In fact, I read a great article by Jeff Passan discussing the Yankees lack of player development,
specifically on the mound. But for now,
the Yankees have a pretty decent starting 5 going for them. The ace of this staff is still C.C. Sabathia,
and while he’s not quite the man he once was, he’s still one of the top
pitchers in the game. You generally
think of a workhorse when he comes to mind, and that’s what he was last
season. He led the team in Ks (197) and
was second in IP with 200. He did miss a
little time last year, for the first time in a long time, and made only 28
starts. He still surpassed 200 IP and
amassed 15 Wins to go with his solid 3.38 ERA.
He keeps guys off base (1.14 WHIP and 238 BAA) and wins a lot of
games. He’s past his prime, but as long
as his velocity is not down significantly (he’s always been a slow starter)
then there is nothing to worry about with this ace. I think another 15 Win season with a sub-3.50
ERA and 200 IP/Ks is in the offing.
Arguably, the real ace last season was Hiroki Kuroda. He led the team with 16 Wins, a 3.32 ERA and
219 IP last season in 33 starts with 3 complete games and 2 shutouts. He was phenomenal. No one thought he’d be this good. He’s not overpowering as his 249 BAA and 167
Ks show. But he doesn’t beat himself (1.17
WHIP) and keeps men from scoring. I
think to expect another season like this would be a mistake, but clearly Kuroda
has what it takes to be a solid pitcher, even in the AL East. Think 12 Wins with a 3.50 ERA and 180
IP. Andy Petite came back to the diamond
last season and was a welcome addition in pinstripes. In 12 starts, he was 5-4 with a 2.87
ERA. That’s fantastic. His peripherals looked great (1.14 WHIP, 232
BAA) and he still had some good heat (69 Ks in 75 IP). He slotted to be the number 3 starter again
this year. If he can stay healthy, we
should see 25+ starts for the veteran with double-digit wins and an ERA around
3.25. Phil Hughes is slotted to be the 4th
starter this year. And you never know
what to expect from him. One year he
wins 18 games. The next he turns in an
ERA over 5. Last season was okay, but
not great. He did tie for the team lead
with 16 Wins, but also had 13 Losses. His 4.23 ERA wasn’t great and both his
BAA and WHIP were a bit higher than the league average. Who knows what this season will bring? But the Yankees would be happy with another
season of double-digit wins and perhaps dropping that ERA closer to 4. And he could break 200 IP this season. The 5th starter spot will go to
Ivan Nova. One of the few young players
on this team, Nova endured some growing pains in his second season. He still won 12 games in 28 starts, but had
an ERA of 5.02. Hitters hit 288 against
him and his WHIP was nearly double the league average. He’s still young and getting better, but the
Yankees need him to play a lot better, or else he may lose that 5th
starter slot as the year progresses to another youngster, David Phelps. The bullpen has always been solid since
1996ish. The reason is because Mariano
Rivera, the greatest closer of all time, has locked down the 9th and
the Yankees went from there. But last
season a tragic injury ended Rivera’s season after only 9 games. He was great in those 9 games, going 5 for 6
in Save opportunities with a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Hiss BAA was 200 and he struck out 8 in 8
IP. Nothing to be surprised about. Rafael Soriano was fantastic in his relief,
notching 42 Saves and turning in a 2.26 ERA.
But he turned that into a big deal to close in Washington, so the Rivera
insurance policy is now gone. The new
insurance policy is likely set up man David Robertson. He missed some time due to injury, but still
pitched in 65 games to a 2.67 ERA with 81 Ks in 60 IP. He’s a great setup man, and may be the closer
of the future after Mariano calls it a career in this, his last season. The rest of the bullpen is solid with Boone
Logan, Joba Chamberlain, and Cody Eppley.
Young David Phelps is the long man who can spot start. It’s not the best bullpen out there, but it’s
solid.
2013 Prediction:
The Yankees are in a re-building mode. However, they will never re-build due to an
ill-conceived mission statement that states they will contend each year. That’s not the way baseball works anymore, no
matter how much money you have. And at
this point, that seems to be the only strength this organization has. They need to get younger and start developing
players. Instead of throwing all that
money at overpriced veterans whose best days are behind them (Wells, Hafner,
Ichiro) perhaps they can spend that money on scouting and player development
and learn to win games like most the other teams in the league. For this season, the Yankees look like one of
the worst teams in their division. I
would be surprised if they make the playoffs, especially seeing how good the
Blue Jays got (I still believe in them), looking at the talent the Rays have, considering
the Orioles success last season with essentially the same team and the Red Sox
re-build a few steps ahead of New York’s.
I’m picking them to finish last.
Hopefully it will be a wake up call for Yankees fans to urge their team
to change the way they go about their business.
If it is, then this team has enough resources to make this re-build very
short. But if they continue to chase the
shortcut solutions, I don’t see this team being nearly as successful in this
decade as it was in the last two.
No comments:
Post a Comment