Well it’s that time. Baseball
is in full swing. And you are wondering
what your team is looking like heading into the new season. Well I’m here to tell you with my team
breakdowns. I started with the AL West,
then moved the NL East, NL Central and am now finishing up the NL West. And while I ranked teams alphabetically last
year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings. Using last season’s final standings, the last
NL West team on my list is the Colorado Rockies.
Projected Starting Lineup
C- Wilin Rosario
1B- Todd Helton
2B- Josh Rutledge
SS- Troy
Tulowitzki
3B- Jordan Pacheco
LF- Carlos
Gonzalez
CF- Dexter Fowler
RF- Michael
Cuddyer
Starting Rotation: Jorge
De La Rosa, Jhoulys Chacin, Juan Nicasio, Jeff Francis, Jon Garland
Bullpen: Rafael
Betancourt, Matt Belisle, Wilton Lopez, Rex Brothers, Edgmer Escalona, Adam
Ottavino, Chris Volstad
Projected Batting Order
CF- Dexter Fowler
2B- Josh Rutledge
LF- Carlos
Gonzalez
SS- Troy
Tulowitzki
RF- Michael
Cuddyer
1B- Todd Helton
C- Wilin Roasrio
3B- Jordan Pacheco
The Rockies had a tough season last year. They were easily one of the worst teams in
the big leagues. Their hitters were
stout, as always. And any hitter who
plays in Coors sees a nice offensive bump.
Similarly any pitcher that pitches in Coors sees their numbers fall a
little bit. Unfortunately for the
Rockies, the pitchers they employ saw their numbers fall a lot, and those same
pitchers were also bad on the road. The
simple fact is, these pitchers aren’t that good, no matter where they pitch. Until
this team can learn how to pitch, then they won’t be winning any time soon.
The Rockies were, once again, one of the top offensive teams
in baseball. Part of it is their
ballpark. But the other part is
management knowing that they play in an offensively minded park and building an
offensive team that can exploit it. They
were great offensively in a year where their best offensive player, Troy
Tulowitzki, missed the majority of the season with an injury. Young Jordan Pacheco was the leading hitter
for this team going 309 in 132 games. He
seems to be a singles hitter with little power (5 HR) or speed (7 SB) but there
is nothing wrong with a guy who hits 300.
If he can keep that up over a full season (and he was close to full last
year) then I think we may see a little more power and speed to go with solid R
and RBI numbers. The HR leader on this
club was catcher Wilin Rosario who slugged 28 in only 117 games. Very impressive, even in Coors Field. He hit 270 with that power, driving in 71 and
scoring 67. If stops trying to steal
bases (4 out of 9) then he’ll be in much better shape. It’s a small sample size, but as he’s still
hitting in a solid order in a great offensive ballpark, I think we can expect
30 HR in a full season, possibly more.
The best overall hitter on this team was Carlos Gonzalez, who is one of
their best hitters even when Troy Tulowitzki is around. He hit 303 with 22 HR, 85 RBI, 89 R and 20
SB. He’s an all around monster, one of
the best players in the game and is a core player in this order. He hits third, one spot in front of Tulo and
brings power, speed and a plus AVG. I’d
expect another season around 300 with 20+ HR, 80+ RBI, 85+ R and 15-20
SBs. After Gonzalez, the Rockies really
need healthy seasons from Tulo and Michael Cuddyer. Tulo played in only 47 games with 8 HR and a
287 AVG. If he returns to his norms,
expect 280-300 with 20-25 HR, around 100 RBI, 80+ R and 15-20 SB. Similar to Carlos Gonzalez except at
shortstop. Michael Cuddyer was healthy
longer playing in 101 games last year. His
AVG was down from the others at 260, but he still popped 16 HR with 50+ RBI and
R and 8 SB. A full season of that would
have been 20+ easily with 75 RBI, 70 R and 15 SB. Expect similar numbers, with maybe an uptick
in AVG (270 region) but a slow drop in SB (closer to 10). CarGo, Tulo and Cuddyer are the heart of this
order. Rosario and Pacheco are bottom of
the order bats who can be a plus. Todd
Helton is the veteran who is on the decline.
If healthy (which he wasn’t last year) then I’d expect his AVG to climb
a lot, but more than 10 HR would be surprising at this point. Think 260 with 8 HR, but good clubhouse
leadership. The real breakout player in
Denver last year was Dexter Fowler.
Fowler hit 300 with a whopping 389 OBP.
He’s not incredibly fast (12 out of 17 SB) but delivered plus pop (13
HR) and great R numbers (72). He only
played in 143 games, but when healthy, I’d expect 85+ R, with a 15/15 line and
300 again. He’s the spark that makes
this offense go. And it’s deep. 1-8 in this batting order can do damage, and
that doesn’t even take into account the depth they have with Eric Young Jr on
the bench (316 with 14 SB in 98 games), Tyler Colvin’s power (290 with 18 HR in
136 games) and Josh Rutledge. This
Rockies team can hit the ball, especially at home but also on the road. Scoring runs won’t be a problem this year.
The real problem in Colorado is keeping other teams from
scoring runs. For reference, no pitcher
on this club qualified for the ERA title.
The reason for that is the Rockies were so bad on the mound, that they
tried a new thing where each guy threw like 70 pitches in a game and they had a
4 man rotation. It did not work. If a pitcher is bad, he’s going to be as bad
in 3 innings as he is in 9. It was a
good thought, but it didn’t work. These
guys are just bad pitchers. The bad news
for the Rockies is that it doesn’t look much better coming into this
season. They will point to the fact that
they were missing their ace, Jorge De La Rosa for pretty much all of last
year. He only made 3 starts before being
shut down due to injury. In addition,
they only had half a season of their number 2 man, Jhoulys Chacin. But, the guys behind them weren’t great. In fact, the Rockies didn’t have a single
pitcher make as many as 25 starts. Jeff
Francis was closest with 24. He was 6-7
with a 5.48 ERA. Alex White and Drew
Pomeranz joined Francis as the only guys to break the 20 start barrier, but
they were equally bad going 2-9 (both of them had the same record, that’s not
combined) with a 4.93 and 5.51 ERA respectively. Of
those 3 starters, only Jeff Francis figures to break into the starting rotation
this season barring injury. Jorge De La
Rosa will be the ace, but no one is expecting much. I’d think his season would be successful if
he kept his ERA under 4.50 and made 30 starts.
But we’ll see. Chacin is the
number 2 man, and I’m expecting just as little from him. He was 3-5 with a 4.43 in 14 games last year,
and was easily their best pitcher.
That’s how bad the pitching situation is in Colorado. The good news is that Pomeranz is young and
has a bright future. The Rockies sent
him to the minors to work on a few things, among them getting his confidence
back after being shelled in the majors.
Juan Nicasio is going to be the number 3 man in the Mile High City. He went 2-3 with a 5.28 in 11 starts last
year. It gets worse. The fourth spot in this rotation will go to
veteran Jon Garland who didn’t play in the majors last season. His last full season was in 2010 with the
Padres and he went 14-12 with a 3.47.
Then he went to the Dodgers the next season where he was 1-5 with a
4.33. He then went down to shoulder
surgery losing the rest of the season and being bought out of his contract by
the Dodgers. He signed minor league
deals with the Indians and Mariners before pitching well in the Spring for
Seattle. Last spring. But he wasn’t guaranteed a roster spot and
asked for his release. Now with the
Rockies, we have no idea what this guy will bring to the table. But anything north of double digit wins or
anything south of an ERA of 5 will be welcome in Denver. This starting rotation may be the worst in baseball
and the bullpen isn’t much better.
Rafael Betancourt locks down the back end of it and led the team with 31
Saves. His 2.81 ERA was solid as was his
1.13 WHIP and 241 BAA. He’s not
overpowering, but still strikes out a guy an inning and is a veteran who
consistently gets the job done. His Save
potential is limited by the few games his team wins, but he isn’t a
problem. In fact, if he’s good in the
first half, we may see him shipped off to a contender around the trade
deadline, which of course would make his Save numbers plummet, but he’d still
be a valuable middle reliever. Matt
Belisle was okay as a set up man with 26 Holds.
His 3.71 ERA was high for a reliever.
And his 282 BAA and 1.36 WHIP were well above average. You worry when he goes out there. And with only 69 Ks in 80 innings, it’s not
like he’s an overpowering pitcher who’s great or wild. He’s just inconsistent. And he’s probably their second best arm. Rex Brothers actually led the team with 8
Wins, but he’s strictly a middle reliever and had 0 starts last year. He was second on the team with 18 Holds and
led the club with 83 Ks in 67 IP. That’s
right, the man with the most strikeouts on this staff was a middle reliever who
had 83 Ks. Bad, bad, bad. The rest of this bullpen is either
underwhelming or has very little experience with Wilton Lopez headlining the
remaining back of the rotation arms and former starter Chris Volstad getting a
shot as a long reliever/spot starter.
Perhaps it’s not quite as bad as the starters, but would be if they had
to throw more innings. As good as this
offense can be, they won’t go anywhere with this weight of a pitching staff
dragging them down.
2013 Prediction:
This team is not very good.
And, they are also in an awkward position. They have a lot of bad pitchers paired with a
strong offense. However many of their
offensive stars are in their prime, while their pitchers are on both sides of
it. That doesn’t make them good
candidates to re-build or to go for it now.
The fact is, they have a lot of quality players that will likely lead
them to a 4th or 5th place finish in their division. They were last in 2012. They may make the jump to 4th in
2013 with a healthy Tulowitzki leading them, but ultimately they won’t even
remotely sniff the playoffs or the division title. This team is moving towards re-building with
some youth in the pitching staff and the looming retirement of Todd
Helton. But the Rockies need to be
solvent soon, or the money they promised to Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki
will be wasted on a decade of seasons like this one: great offense and bad pitching landing them
near the bottom of the standings.
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