Well it’s that time. Baseball
is nearing the end of its first month.
And you are wondering what your team is looking like this season. Well I’m here to tell you with my team
breakdowns. I started with the AL West
then knocked out the NL East and Central.
I’m now in the NL West. And while
I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last
season’s standings. Using last season’s
final standings, the fourth team I’ll look at in the NL West will be the San
Diego Padres.
Projected Starting Lineup
C- Yasmani
Grandal
1B- Yonder Alonso
2B- Logan Forsythe
SS- Everth
Cabrera
3B- Chase Headley
LF- Carlos Quentin
CF- Cameron Maybin
RF- Will Venable
Starting Rotation: Edinson
Volquez, Clayton Richard, Eric Stults, Jason Marquis, Tyson Ross
Bullpen: Huston
Street, Luke Gregerson, Dale Thayer, Brad Bach, Joe Thatcher, Andrew Cashner
Projected Batting Order
SS- Everth
Cabrera
CF- Cameron Maybin
3B- Chase Headley
LF- Carlos Quentin
1B- Yonder Alonso
C- Yasmani
Grandal
RF- Will Venable
2B- Logan Forsythe
The San Diego Padres have struggled recently. In 2010, they shocked the world, winning 90
games and finishing 2 games back of the San Francisco Giants in the NL
West. That is unlikely to happen this
season. This team is in full re-build
mode, though they’ve been in it long enough to have a solid core coming
together. Chase Headley broke out last
season, finally living up to his potential and leading the league in RBI. Everth Cabrera took over the starting shortstop
position and flew like a bunny around the bags, racking up stolen bases. And Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal had
full seasons in the bigs to gain experience and grow into their potential. However, this team isn’t ready to contend
yet. Especially when some of their star
players will be missing time due to injury (Headley) or suspension
(Grandal…illegal substance). And this
group of starters leaves a lot to be desired, even pitching in spacious Petco
Park, which is going to be a little less spacious after they move in the fences
this season. The point is, the Padres
are headed in the right direction, but they’ve got a long way to go.
Offensively this team was led by Chase Headley, which is no
big surprise. He is their best
player. The surprise was how good he was. He hit 286 with 31 HR and 115 RBI. He also led the team with 95 R and swiped 17
bags. He was a 5-tool player and a
beast. The tricky thing is…his contract
is running out. The Padres have to
decide if he’s the guy they want to build around (and they do have some solid
offensive pieces in place at first, catcher, short and wherever Gyorko ends up)
or if they want to let him go, put Gyorko at third (which makes Forsythe the
second baseman) and get some prospects back for the future. It’s hard to know what they’ll decide. But if doesn’t get healthy and come back
soon, they might let him go. If he has a
bad year, he might stay as his value will have dropped. It’s something to keep an eye on this
season. Beyond Headley, this offense was
weak. Young Yonder Alonso had a strong
season, hitting 273 in 155 games. But he
only cracked 9 HR and drove in 62. Petco
is a tough place to hit HR, but you want more power from a first baseman. They hope he’ll grow into his power and the
moved in fences will help him. But I
wouldn’t expect any more than 15 HR from him this year, and that would be quite
an improvement. Carlos Quentin showed
impressive power, but has had a long history of injury issues. His 16 HR in 86 games were a pleasant addition,
but they just can’t keep him on the field.
I’d expect another injury-shortened season with around 20 HR, depending
on how many games he plays. No one else
besides Headley and Quentin had double-digit power. But there was plenty of speed. Everth Cabrera led the team with 44 SBs last
year in only 115 games. But his 246 AVG
and 324 OBP saw him hitting lower in the order and only scoring 49 R. If he doesn’t develop into a top of the order
guy, then the Padres are in trouble, and thus far he has not been that
guy. Steals are nice, but you want that
speed at the top of the lineup. Cameron
Maybin was in the same catergory. He had
26 steals, but only a 243 AVG and 306 OBP.
He played in 147 games and helped his value with 8 HR, 45 RBI and 67 R,
but doesn’t seem to be a long term solution at the leadoff spot either. Will Venable was better with 24 steals and a
264 AVG. His 335 OBP was a little
better, but again, not the top of the order presence they need. All this speed is nice, but you want to use
it to manufacture runs. The Padres don’t
seem capable of doing that. Chris
Denorfia was probably the best option they had at leadoff, hitting 293 in 130
games with 13 steals. He scored 56 R and
had a 345 OBP. But his upside is
limited, so they want someone else to take the job. Until they do, he may start in the outfield
and leadoff. Another future star is
Yasmani Grandal who hit 297 in 60 games last year. He also popped 8 HR, driving in 36. He might be their brightest offensive star,
but will begin the year serving a 50 game suspension for PED usage. If he was only good because of the drugs,
then that’s bad news. Either way, his bottom line will be limited as he won’t
return until late May/early June. The
Padres aren’t an offensive force. And
while they have some bright spots and lots of potential, especially in the
speed category, they haven’t put it all together yet. It may take a while. But at least they have a lot of youth and are
letting their youngsters get some experience, including highly touted prospect
Jed Gyorko, who will get a lot of ABs filling in at third for the injured
Headley.
You expect pitchers to have great success in Petco Park, but
you have to be a decent pitcher to see any of that translate. The Padres apparently don’t have decent
pitchers. Clayton Richard was good last
year, leading the team with 14 Wins and a 3.99 ERA. But 3.99 is not a good enough number to be
leading a team, especially pitching in that park. Richard got 14 Wins, but also suffered 14
losses. He’s not the problem as his WHIP
was a tick below AVG and BAA a tick above.
But he’s an innings eater who led the club with 218. He’s not an ace, but might be for this team. Edinson Volquez led the team in Ks with 174,
but that came with an 11-11 record and a 4.14 ERA. He walked 105 last year, which knocked his
WHIP up to 1.45. That’s bad. His BAA of 236 was nice, but he keeps beating
himself by putting guys on. Until he’s
able to stop doing that, and he hasn’t shown that he has the capacity to stop
walking guys yet, he’ll struggle. The
brightest pitching spot might be Eric Stults who went 8-3 with a 2.92 ERA in 14
starts. He also appeared in 4 games as a
reliever, which helped his numbers. He’s
not a strikeout guy, but kept batters off base with a 1.18 WHIP. His stuff is okay (51 Ks in 90+ IP and 249
BAA) but he gets batters out. That’s not
common in San Diego. If he can stay
healthy and continue to grow as a pitcher, he might find some success with the
Padres. The back end of this rotation
will feature veteran Jason Marquis and Andrew Cashner. Both were okay with ERAs over 4 in their
combined 23 starts going 9-11 (again, combined numbers). Neither is overly exciting and are
essentially eating innings for a team that is re-building. That’s the starting rotation. It’s not exciting. It’s not very good. And it is expected to win games with a weak
offense. The one area that’s not too bad
is the bullpen, which is led by closer Huston Street. Street garnered 23 Saves with a 1.85 ERA last
year. He’s set up by Luke Gregerson and
Dale Thayer, both of whom had solid ERAs (Gregerson’s better than Thayer’s) to
go with high strikeout numbers and 20+ Holds apiece. The middle relief is not as good, but the
back end of the bullpen is strong. If
the Padres struggle, you may see some of these guys (mainly Street) hit the
trading block, but if the Padres ever get to the end of a game with a lead,
it’ll be in good hands.
2013 Prediction:
Well the Padres are trying to get better. They are taking steps. But it’s a slow process and they aren’t there
yet. They may build around Headley. They may trade him for prospects and contend
a little later. It just depends how
close they think they are. It makes
little sense to pay Headley a lot of money to lead a team that can only win 75
games. It’s an improvement, but who
plays for that. The Padres want to
return to the playoffs. Until they think
they have a team that can get there, they probably won’t spend big money on
anyone. One thing is for sure, they have
a long road to go and won’t be in the hunt this season. Sorry Friar Fans.
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