Well it’s that time.
The season has started. And
you are wondering what your team is gonna look like this year. Well I’m here to tell you with my team
breakdowns. I started with the AL
West and then moved through the NL East.
I’m now in the middle of the NL Central. And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year
I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings. Using last season’s final standings, the fourth team in the
NL Central was the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Projected Starting Lineup
C- Russell
Martin
1B- Gaby
Sanchez
2B- Neil
Walker
SS- Clint
Barmes
3B- Pedro
Alvarez
LF- Starling
Marte
CF- Andrew
McCutchen
RF- Garrett
Jones
Projected Batting Order
LF- Starling
Marte
2B- Neil
Walker
CF- Andrew
McCutchen
RF- Garrett
Jones
3B- Pedro
Alvarez
C- Russell
Martin
1B- Gaby
Sanchez
SS- Clint
Barmes
Projected Starting Rotation:
A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Francisco
Liriano, Jeff Karstens, Charlie Morton
Bullpen:
Jason Grilli, Jared Hughes, Tony Watson, Justin Wilson, Mark
Melancon, Kyle McPherson, Jeff Locke
The Pittsburgh Pirates played last year like they played the
year before. Hot out of the gate,
a great first half….followed by a soul crushingly bad second half. For some reason this team just can’t
put a strong full year together.
Maybe it’s the youth. I
don’t know, but they’ve got talent.
And the fact that they are so good in the first half shows that they
have the requisite experience to win games consistently at the big league
level. But they just can’t put it
all together for a full year. It’s
incredibly frustrating for a fan base with over 20 straight losing seasons, the
longest drought in major professional sports. The fans know they are close, but it just hasn’t happened. It’s telling that you don’t measure a
season by a playoff appearance, you just want a winning record. Tough times for Pittsburgh fans. But the good news is they are
better. And it’s only a matter of
time for this franchise. I think
this might be the year.
Similar to Ryan Braun of the Brewers, Andrew McCutchen paced
the Pirates in pretty much every offensive category. He was the Pittsburgh Triple Crown winner, leading the team
with a 327 AVG, 31 HR and 96 RBI.
He also led the team with 107 R and 20 SB. He had a 953 OPS.
This guy was a beast. He’s
one of the best players in the league.
He also plays some mean defense. There is nothing he can’t do. He’s the heart of this team, and the Pittsburgh brass picked
a real winner to build around. I
fully expect McCutchen to have another season of 300+ AVG, 25+ HR, 90+ RBI, 90+
R and 20 SB. Beyond him, this
lineup is chock full of a lot of talent.
Perhaps not quite All Star quality, but they have a lot of above average
players at multiple spots, including the bench. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of the guys in my
lineup only get about 400 ABs because other quality guys are around to take a
turn at the dish. They have Travis
Snider to play some right field.
They have Jose Tabata and Alex Pressley fighting for a left field spot,
and perhaps earning some ABs in right as well. I started Garrett Jones in right, but he could spend more
time at first if Gaby Sanchez struggles.
The lineup I put up was my guess for opening day. But I can see Sanchez and Jones
platooning at first while Jones earns some extra time in right. That allows Travis Snider, Alex
Pressley and Jose Tabata to take some time in right and occasionally play left. The point is, the Pirates can ride the
hot bat, and that may be the difference to get them those wins in the second
half. I expect Garrett Jones to
get the majority of the ABs, whether they be at first, in right or doing
both. He finally cashed in on his
potential with a strong 274 season with 27 HR and 86 RBI. They need his power to protect
McCutchen and give him some good pitches to hit. Speaking of power, Pedro Alvarez slugged 30 HR last year
while driving in 85. He only hit
244, but with that power you’ll take the average. You’d like it to be north of 250, but I always say that if
you get to 30 HR, then I only need you to hit 240. I’d like more, but I’ll accept 240. With those 2 in the 4 and 5 hole behind
McCutchen in the 3 spot, you have a strong heart of the order. Getting on in front of them you have Starling
Marte and Neil Walker. Marte is
trying to take over the starting left field spot and be the leadoff
hitter. Jose Tabata had that job
last year, but hitting 243 with a 315 OBP was not what they had in mind. In addition, he was 8 for 20 in stolen base
attempts, which is straight up bad.
So he’s got to fight off Starling Marte, who took over for him last
season. Marte hit 257 in 47 games,
with a 300 OBP. That’s not what
you are looking for in the leadoff spot either. But he was 12 for 17 in stolen base attempts, so he’s
already got that leg up on Tabata.
Neither one excites me that much, but Marte is younger and played better
last year. And he’s got less experience. If he gets better with more ABs, then
he’s got the higher ceiling. They
need one of them to hit and get on base for the mashers behind them. At least
the number 2 man, Neil Walker, had a good year last season. The second baseman hit 280 with 14 HR,
69 RBI, 62 R and 7 SBs. He’s a guy
who can do it all. That’s what you
need at number 2. If he has to
lead off he will, though he’s better hitting second. I like the pop and the occasional speed. He can get on base when the leadoff
hitter fails, or even drive someone in when necessary. He’s what makes the top of this order
work. His double play companion,
shortstop Clint Barmes, is more of a glove man, and for that reason is buried
at 8th in the lineup.
But they added some bottom of the lineup depth in Russell Martin who
they signed as a free agent.
Martin had a bad 211 AVG in New York last season, but slugged 21 HR with
53 RBI. Yankee stadium had
something to do with that. Guys
tend to just go for the long ball there cuz it’s about 30 feet to the fence in
right (don’t look that up). In a
normal stadium, like PNC Park, he’ll likely raise that AVG a bit. He won’t win a Silver Slugger, but I
bet he is a lot closer to 250, with maybe 15 HR. And he’s great behind the plate. This offense has talent and backup plans galore on this
bench and I think they will score some R.
If the top of the lineup can get on base, I have every confidence in the
middle and bottom of this lineup to drive runs in and keep the Pirates in every
game.
The Pirates pitching staff isn’t nearly as talented as their
hitters. But they have some
quality players there. A.J.
Burnett led the team with 16 Wins, a 3.51 ERA and 180 Ks. This was a good move by the
Pirates. He led the team with 31
starts and 202 IP. He was
languishing in the Bronx, but was great in the NL Central. The competition is lighter and Burnett
has had success in the past in the senior circuit. I think he’ll have a similar year with 10-15 Wins, a 3.50-4
ERA and 200 IP with 175+ Ks. He’s
not a true ace, but is a quality pitcher who will lead this staff. James McDonald was second on this team
with 29 starts. He epitomized the
Pirates, a great first half and a bad second half. He still ended the season at 12-8 with a 4.21 ERA. His WHIP was a tad high but his BAA was
solid. He just has to get out of
his own way. If he stops putting
guys on base via the walk, he’ll vastly improve his season. He’s not an ace or a strikeout
guy. But if he can stop walking
guys, I can see that ERA dipping closer to 4, maybe under. And that should bring his Win total
closer to 15 while dropping the losses closer to 5. And if he does that, he’ll start 30+ Games and approach 200
IP. The Pirates need him to figure
out how to achieve those goals because if he does then this team has a great
chance to break the 500 barrier. The
number 2 starter on this team is Wandy Rodriguez who went 12-13 with a 3.76 ERA
for the Astros and Pirates. The
big thing for Pittsburgh is that Wandy was 5-4 in 12 starts for them with a
3.72 ERA. He too can benefit from
fewer walks, but his BAA was only average. He’s basically a stable veteran presence who can eat some
innings at this point. But that’s
what the Pirates need. With all
this youth, they need some guys who have won in the past to show the Bucs how
to put a full winning season together.
I think Wandy will have a solid year, double digit wins and an ERA
around 4. It’s not flashy, but
solid. His clubhouse presence is
even better than his field presence.
After hitting it big with A.J Burnett last year, the Pirates are taking
another shot with Francisco Liriano this year. Liriano struggled between Minnesota and Chicago last year,
going 6-12 with a 5.34 ERA. Those
numbers aren’t good. But Burnett’s
numbers were similar in New York.
The AL East is tougher than the AL Central, but both are tougher than
the NL Central. If Liriano can
rebound, he can be a back of the rotation boon. The signing was low risk, and even if he can’t start at a
high level then he can go to the bullpen and likely play there. There were some injury concerns, as he
like bumped his elbow on a wall or something crazy like that this offseason,
right after signing his deal. But
he should be fine and will get his chance to start in Pittsburgh. Jeff Karstens will be the last man in
the rotation. He was 5-4 in 15
starts with a 3.97 ERA. His 1.15
WHIP was great, but his 256 BAA was a little above average. But as a 5th starter, he
gives them some solid innings and his youth is a plus as he could grow into a
middle of the rotation piece in the future. Either way he should be solid for Pittsburgh if
unspectacular. If Charlie Morton
returns healthy in the second half, they’ll have a wealth of starters and can
ride the hot hand. The depth is
important on this team, especially if Liriano can’t put it together. Either way, they want these starters to
play well because the bullpen looks a little shaky. At the back end, Jason Grilli takes over for the departed
Joel Hanrahan as a closer. Grilli
has played a long time, but has never been a full time closer. But he took a below market deal to stay
in Pittsburgh and be the closer for the Pirates. He was a good pitcher and I think he can get it done in the
9th. He threw his most
innings in 3 years last year and turned in a 207 BAA and 1.14 WHIP. He also had 90 Ks in 58 IP. The power pitching was impressive and
the drop in the BB rate was huge.
His BAA has always been solid.
So that earned him his shot to close. Mark Melancon could be the primary setup man. Melancon was bad in Boston last year
with a 6.20 ERA and 8 HR given up in 45 IP. That’s not good.
But Melancon had a strong year the season before in Houston. He returns to the NL Central, where he
starred for a bad Astros team. I
think he’ll be better than last season, but not as good as the year
before. But I think he can be a
quality setup man. And the Pirates
need him to be. Because the rest
of the bullpen is made up of underwhelming names. The bullpen is often the last thing that comes together, but
with some questions in the starting rotation the Pirates would love it if this
bullpen steps up and play well. It’s
a lot to hope for.
2013 Prediction:
The Pirates are all in. They want to win now and have a solid nucleus to do it. I think they are similar to the Brewers
who won a few more games than they lost last year. They’ve introduced some solid veterans to this young team
and hope that those guys and Clint Hurdle can get this team over the hump. I think it can happen. I don’t think they’ll come close to
challenging for this division and really don’t see them in the playoff
picture. But I could see them jump
the Brewers in the standings and finish with 80-85 Wins. I’m calling this as the season that the
Pirates break 500. It’s a small
step, but an important one for this team and this fanbase.
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