Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Arizona Diamondbacks 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Baseball season is in full swing.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I started with the AL West, then moved the NL East and NL Central.  I’m wrapping up the senior circuit with the NL West.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the third NL West team I’ll take a look at will be the Arizona Diamondbacks.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks:

2012 Record: 81-81  3rd in the NL West 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

 

C-         Miguel Montero

1B-      Paul Goldschmidt

2B-      Aaron Hill

SS-       Cliff Pennington

3B-      Martin Prado

LF-      Jason Kubel

CF-      Adam Eaton

RF-      Cody Ross

 

 

Starting Rotation:      Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, Brandon McCarthy, Wade Miley, Randall Delgado

 

Bullpen:                      J.J. Putz, David Hernandez, Heath Bell, Brad Zeigler, Tony Sipp, Josh Collmenter, Matt Reynolds

 

Projected Batting Order

 

CF-      Adam Eaton

3B-      Martin Prado

2B-      Aaron Hill

1B-      Paul Goldschmidt

LF-      Jason Kubel

C-         Miguel Montero

RF-      Cody Ross

SS-       Cliff Pennington

The Diamondbacks were a very mediocre team last year, going 81-81.  They were strong on both sides of the ball, but underperformed and didn’t make the playoffs.  The question is, will this team that won the division two years ago in 2011, or the average team of 2012.  The pitching staff may have over performed in the season they won the division.  The offense lost one of their best players, though by choice.  Now they are counting on an offense of grinders with some new faces (Prado, Pennington, Ross) to support a pitching staff with some new faces (McCarthy, Delgado, Bell).  A lot has changed in Arizona, and GM Kevin Towers and the rest of the Diamondbacks front office hope it all changed for the better.

 

The offense is looking vastly different this year, but the Diamondbacks believe they have a solid group.  Chase Field is a great place to hit, and they think that they’ll do fine this season, even without Justin Upton.  The team batting leader last season was Aaron Hill, who hit 302 with 26 HR, 85 RBI, 93 R and 14 SB.  That’s great offensive output, especially for a second baseman.  Last season’s breakout campaign was fairly unexpected, but didn’t come out of nowhere as he’s a big powerful guy who’s had strong seasons in the past when he was a Blue Jay.  Hill’s HR total was second on the team, behind Jason Kubel.  Kubel had 30 HR to go with a team leading 90 RBI. He was definitely a slugger, turning in a 253 AVG and 151 Ks to 57 BB.  But the power is what they wanted from him, and his ability to drive in runs was huge for this team, and he got on base enough to score 75 R.  He’s one of the big bats in the middle of this order and as long he continues to drive in runs and hit the ball over the fence occasionally, then they don’t care what his AVG is.  One of the biggest surprises on this team was the play of rookie Paul Goldschmidt.  They expected him to play at a high level, but not quite this soon.  He hit 286 with 20 HR, 82 RBI, 82 R and 18 SB.  They knew he had good power, but they were very pleased with his AVG and blown away with that speed.  He’s a promising young slugger with a bright future.  Between those three guys, you could see 20, 25, and 30 HR to go with 80-100 RBI, not to mention 15 SB from Hill and Goldschmidt.  They are now the leaders of this team.  After Goldschmidt’s great rookie season, they hope to strike lightning in a bottle twice with rookie Adam Eaton, who they want to take over the center field job and hit at the top of the lineup.  In 22 games last year, he hit 259 with 2 HR, 5 RBI, 19 R and 2 SB.  It’s a small sample size, but his 382 OBP was good to see, as was his 14 BB/15 K ratio.    A lot of people think the Diamondbacks are lacking a true star now that Justin Upton is out of the desert, but there is no doubt that they are deep with talent.  In addition to the aforementioned players, the Diamondbacks have an All Star behind the plate in Miguel Montero.  Montero may not be the biggest star when it comes to big name catchers, but he is very good and incredibly consistent.  Last season he hit 286 with 15 HR, 88 RBI and 65 R.  That’s fantastic output for a catcher.  He cleans up behind the big boppers, and does a great job.  Finally, this offense has a couple of new elements that they hope will support this solid nucleus.  They signed free agent Cody Ross to take over in right field for the departed Justin Upton, who went to the Atlanta Braves in a trade.  Ross hit 267 in Boston last season, with 22 HR, 81 RBI and 70 R in many more games then he was supposed to play.  The good news for him is that it made his stock rise and earned him a nice deal to play for Arizona.  I’d expect another season of 260+ with 15+ HR and 60+ RBI and R depending on where in the order he hits.  They expect a little more out of new third baseman Martin Prado, who was the main return in the Upton trade.  Prado hit 301 with the Braves last season with 10 HR, 70 RBI, 81 R and 17 SB.  The 300 AVG is what we’ve come to expect from Prado when he’s healthy and getting a full slate of playing time.  Last year for Atlanta, he was technically the starting left fielder, but he played a lot of third, some second and then short when injuries befell Andrelton Simmons.  He’s also played first in the past, so he’s a valuable weapon for Kirk Gibson’s team.  He’ll probably play a lot of third, especially with the wealth of outfielders in Arizona.  But I think we can expect him to hit around 300 again, with possibly 15 HR (he’s done that before and Chase Field is much friendlier to longballs than Turner Field is) and 75 RBI/R, again depending on where he hits in the order.  But I’m betting he’ll hit second, so another 70 RBI, 80 R campaign looks probable.  The real question here is about the stolen bases.  He’s always hovered around 5, but had a great percentage.  So, Fredi Gonzalez gave him the green light more in Atlanta, and he was good.  I doubt he’ll swipe 20 this year.  Or even 15.  But 10 is probably a good guess, with a possibility for more.  His partner on the left side of the infield is also new to the desert.  Cliff Pennington is more of a glove first man, hitting 215 with 6 HR, 28 RBI, 50 R and 15 SB.  There’s not a lot of expectation for him at the plate, but he’s more of a placeholder until prospect Didi Gregorious comes up.  They added Gregorious to the team in a three way trade with the Reds and Indians.  The Diamondbacks sent Trevor Bauer to the Indians, got Gregorious from the Reds and Tony Sipp from the Indians and the Reds got Shin Soo Choo back.  Oh and the Indians got Drew Stubbs.  It’s a really confusing trade and I almost certainly forgot parts of it.  But, other than some SBs, Pennington likely won’t contribute much.  After the starters, the Diamondbacks can boast some of the best depth in the game.  In addition to the versatility of Prado, the Diamondbacks have a Gold Glove winning fourth outfielder in Gerardo Parra, who hits for a good AVG (273) with great speed (15 SB).  If he were to ever get a starting job, we could see 25+ SB from him and maybe 80+ R.  But the Diamondbacks like him subbing in at the corners, though he does play all 3 positions.  In addition to Parra, they’ve got two solid veterans backing up the corners in Eric Chavez and Eric Hinske.  This offense should play.  The question is, how good is this pitching staff?

 

Last year, rookie Wade Miley led this pitching staff with 16 Wins and a 3.33 ERA.  He was my pick or Rookie of the Year, as I think it’s harder to break into this league as a pitcher than a hitter.  Sorry Bryce Harper.  Anyway, Wiley was very solid last season, keeping his ERA low, mainly by pitching to contact (144 Ks) and not letting men on base (1.18 WHIP).  Hitters were able to put the bat on the ball okay (255 BAA), but he kept his ERA low by not beating himself.  I’d expect some regression, perhaps an uptick in ERA and a drop in his Win total.  He threw a very impressive 194 IP last season, and you worry about the durability of a young arm like that.  The good news is that he was successful in his first season, and isn’t expected to be the man in Arizona this season.  As long as he continues to grow and improve, he’ll live through a regression and still be competitive keeping his team in games.  The true ace of this staff is Ian Kennedy who led the team with 187 Ks.  He was strong last year, though not as good as in 2011.  He went 15-12 in 208 IP, but his other numbers fell from their lofty perch.  His ERA climbed to a little over 4 (4.02), his WHIP was a tick above average (1.30) and his BAA was also high (266).  His 2011 numbers (21-4, 2.88 ERA) probably won’t come back.  But he’ll be better than he was last year.  Think 15+ Wins with a 3.50, 220 IP and 200 Ks (assuming he stays healthy).  Trevor Cahill is the number 2.  He went 13-12 last year with a 3.78 ERA.  He’s essentially an innings eater and did his job well last season.  He kept his ERA under 4 and logged right at 200 IP last season.  His WHIP and BAA were both a tad higher than you’d like, but he always pitches to those numbers, logs his innings, keeps his team in games, and wins double digit games.  Consistency is a valuable commodity in this game, and the Dbacks feel pretty certain about Cahill throwing 200 IP, striking out 150 and pitching to an ERA of around 4.  He was signed from the A’s last season and did a fantastic job holding this starting rotation together, and will need to do that again this season.  With Daniel Hudson missing the year to Tommy John, the Diamondbacks realized they needed some new blood to add to the middle of their starting rotation.  So they went back to the Oakland Athletics talent pool and brought in Brandon McCarthy.  McCarthy went 8-6 in 18 games last season.  He pitched well, with a 3.24 ERA.  His season was cut short after taking a scary line drive off the head.  But he’s healthy now, and in his last full season (2011) he threw 25 games going 9-9 with a 3.32 ERA.  His WHIP was not quite as good as the league average though his ERA was a tick better than average.  You see that a lot with guys who don’t have great stuff.  They don’t strike a lot of guys out, and aren’t fooling guys too much.  But they pitch to contact and don’t beat themselves.  It’s what he’s done in the past and what he did last year.  That makes me think his ERA will climb a bit, as his WHIP was right at average and his BAA was well above (267).  Also, Chase Field is a tougher place to pitch than the Oakland Coliseum.  But if he can cut back on the walks (1 fewer than the year before despite pitching 7 fewer games) and get back to what he’s good at (attacking the corners and changing speeds in the strike zone) he should approach 30 starts, with a sub 4 ERA, 180+ IP and 140 Ks.  The last spot in this rotation will be between Patrick Corbin and Josh Collmenter, though with the injury histories of McCarthy and Kennedy and Miley’s youth, both will likely see some starts.  Neither one is great, but both are good enough to keep the Diamondbacks in games.  And that’s all these starters should have to do with their strong offense.  The bullpen looks strong with J.J. Putz closing things out, David Hernandez as a strong setup man and former closers Heath Bell and Brad Zeigler coming out for late inning matchups.  Putz had 32 Saves last year, Hernandez is a talented youngster with a power arm, and having closers in the 7th inning is always a recipe for success.  The Diamondbacks hope that their strong bullpen will make up for any questions in their starting rotation.  And if that rotation lives up to it’s promise, this will be a great team.

 

 

2013 Prediction:

 

The Diamondbacks are a good team.  I like the way the have built this roster and the way they go about playing baseball.  I think Kirk Gibson’s insistence on “grinders” perhaps drove some talented players from this roster, for what I think is no good reason.  Justin Upton and Trevor Bauer are incredibly talented.  They aren’t lazy and they play hard.  But some things come more easily to some guys as opposed to others and these guys don’t seem to be “grinding it out”.  Perhaps the locker room camaraderie it will foster will make up for anything the team lost.  And this team still has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball.  I think the questions mainly revolve around this pitching staff that they hope is good enough to support an offense that, while talented, might be a bit diminished from last season.  While they might not be the best team in their division, they are talented, young and could be in the playoff hunt this year.  But even if this is not their year, they will likely be playing October baseball in the future.

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