Tuesday, April 9, 2013

San Francisco Giants 2013 Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Baseball is underway and you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  After starting with the AL West, I’ve knocked out the NL East and Central and will finish the Senior Circuit by examining the NL West, starting with last year’s World Series Champs, the San Francisco Giants.


San Francisco Giants:

Projected Starting Lineup

C-              Buster Posey
1B-            Brandon Belt
2B-            Marco Scutaro
SS-            Brandon Crawford
3B-            Pablo Sandoval
LF-            Gregor Blanco
CF-            Angel Pagan
RF-            Hunter Pence


Projected Batting Order

CF-            Angel Pagan
2B-            Marco Scutaro
C-              Buster Posey
3B-            Pablo Sandoval
RF-            Hunter Pence
1B-            Brandon Belt
SS-            Brandon Crawford
LF-            Gregor Blanco

Starting Rotation:
Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito

Bullpen:
Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla, Javier Lopez, Jose Mijares, Dan Runzler, George Kontos

What can you say about the Giants season last year?  It couldn’t have gone any better.  The goal for every team is to win the World Series, and the Giants were the only team out of the 30 who set that goal to achieve it.  They kept their formula of elite pitching with just enough offense going, and the offense performed better than they could have hoped for.  With that improved offense supporting one of the best pitching staffs in the game, the Giants executed exactly the way they drew it up, coming from behind on the brink of elimination twice in the playoffs and steam-rolling the Tigers in the Fall Classic.  The question is, can they do it again?

Offensively, this team runs through Buster Posey.  Posey was a rookie in 2010 when the Giants won their previous World Series, in fact he was the Rookie of the Year.  The next year he was hurt.  Then last year he was healthy and they won it all.  An argument can be made that as long as you have a full season of Buster Posey, then you will win the World Series.  It’s happened to every team that has had a healthy Posey.  And you can see why.  The NL MVP (not my pick…Braun had better numbers…but Giants fans are persuasive….see:  All Star Game, Ballot Stuffing, Examples of) was the triple crown winner in the Bay Area, leading the Giants with a  336 AVG, 24 HR and 103 RBI.  He did all that while being the catcher for a team with some of the best pitching in the majors.  This guy is someone worth building a team around.  And that’s what the Giants have done.  As long as he stays healthy (a big if with catchers) then we think he should be good for another 300+ year with 20 HR and 100 RBI.  But the truth is, we don’t know.  As celebrated as Posey is, he’s only had one full year in the majors.  In 2010 he was a called up mid-season and in 2011 they lost him mid-season.  So while we know he’s great, we don’t fully know what he’s capable of.  Perhaps last year was his best.  Perhaps it was his worst.  Perhaps that’s par for the course.  The fact is we don’t know.  But we know how talented he is, and I suspect we’ll see another strong season from him.  They need him to be great because the Giants had only 2 other players over 300, and neither was around for a full year.  The first was Melky Cabrera of the drug suspension.  He’s now a Blue Jay.  The second was Marco Scutaro, who hit 362 in his 61 games in San Fran.  He also chipped in 3 HR, 44 RBI and 40 R.  Adding what he did in Colorado in the first half, he was a 306 hitter with 9 HR, 74 RBI, 84 R and 9 SB.  That’s great production.  I doubt he’ll stay that hot, and leaving Coors Field always hurts your numbers, but I think he was a great addition to this team and will continue to perform at a high level.  Think 275+ AVG with 5-10 HR, 60+ RBI, 75+ R and 5-10 SBs.  Not an All Star, but a quality role player.  So with so few players hitting over 300, you’d think this team scored runs by the long ball.  Not the case.  They had the fewest HR in baseball with only 103 as a team.  Posey’s 24 led the bunch, but second place was literally half as much.  Pablo Sandoval hit 12 HR in 108 games and had second place on this team all wrapped up.  He still had a good season with those 12 jacks contributing to a 288 AVG, 63 RBI and 59 R, but the power outage is something to be concerned about.  Posey has 25 HR power.  Sandoval does as well (when healthy).  The only other player to hit double-digit homers was Melky Cabrera.  Hunter Pence hit 24 HR last year, but only 7 for the Giants.  That’s a major homer drought in the second half.  They need him to learn to hit for power in AT&T Park, or they are in real trouble.  Pence also had a 253 AVG last year, not great but solid for this team.  However that AVG only plays with some power.  He needs to get that power stroke back.  Without the power, the Giants have to score by manufacturing runs.  Speed helps with that, and they had some of that.  Angel Pagan led the team with 29 SB, which is good.  He also hit 288 and scored 95 R atop the lineup, and earned an extension.  However someone on the wrong side of 30 with a breakout season in his first year with a new team smells like someone who is due for a regression.  If that’s the case, the Giants are in trouble, as Pagan was key for manufacturing runs on this team.  Gregor Blanco stole 26 bases in 141 games.  He played a lot more than they planned for him to and right now he is looking like a starter for this team.  He’s got no power and hits for an unimpressive AVG (244 last year).  If he can get on base more, he could lead the team in steals.  But he’s got a soft bat and I don’t expect much of him offensively.  At first, Brandon Belt played solidly in his first full year, but also suffered from a lack of power.  His 275 AVG was nice, but they need more than 7 HR from a first baseman.  This offense isn’t exciting and doesn’t inspire much confidence.  They manufacture runs, but a lot of it seems like it was done with smoke and mirrors.  The Giants need more consistency from their bats, and if they don’t get it they will have trouble defending their World Series crown.

Pitching wins championships.  I can’t think of a team that better epitomized that statement than the Giants last year.  Their offense was not good last year.  It was worse than it was in 2010 when they won it all.  That just meant that their pitching was that much better last season.  It began and ended with Matt Cain, who became their ace.  He earned a serious contract extension, pitched a perfect game and had a strong season to go with his electric stuff of the past few years.  Part of it was getting better offensive support, as his run support before last year was historically bad.  But most of it was just him.  He went 16-5 with a team leading 2.75 ERA and 193 Ks.  The 16 Wins were also a team high as was his 219 IP, 1.04 WHIP and 222 BAA.  He was the epitome of an ace.  And with even better run support (it was still lacking last season) he could have had 20 Wins.  With his makeup and ability, I see no reason to not pencil him in for 15+ Wins, with a sub 3 ERA and 175+ Ks in 200 IP.  The only thing that could de-rail him would be injury or continued offensive ineptitude.  On the other side of the spectrum, we have the man who held the title of ace before last season, Tim Lincecum.   Tim went 10-15 with a whopping 5.18 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 257 BAA.  He still had 190 Ks in 186 IP, but was not the Cy Young winner of the past.  His walks skyrocketed and hitters were able to get hits off him when they weren’t striking out.   By the end of the year they had moved him to the bullpen, where he was much better.  He’s got that goofy delivery and not a lot of size.  If something gets off, he becomes hittable.  But his curve still drops out like a trapdoor, and he knows how to win.  If he can keep guys off base and continue to strike guys out (which he’s always done at a high level) I think those numbers can normalize a bit.  I’m not thinking Cy Young level, but a drop in the walk rate should see him at 12+ Wins, a sub 4 ERA and 200 Ks in 200 IP.  It’s a big comeback for someone who struggled so much last year, but he’s just too talented to pitch like this again.  He’s a wildcard in this starting rotation.  The new number 2 man is likely Madison Bumgarner, who tied Matt Cain for the team lead with 16 Wins.  He also had 191 Ks in 208 IP while pitching to a 3.37 ERA.  His WHIP (1.11) and BAA (234) were very good, and I see no reason why he can’t do more of the same next year.  Similar to Cain, expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 Wins to go with 200 IP, 180+ Ks and a sub 4 ERA.  After him, we have Ryan Vogelsong who went 14-9 and matched Bumgarner’s 3.37 ERA.  He’s not the strikeout pitcher of his peers and his WHIP and BAA were closer to league average.  But we are talking about a back of the rotation starter who won 14 games last season.  That’s a lot to hope for this year, but somewhere in double digits is doable with an ERA around 4.  And Barry Zito rounds out this rotation with his massive contract overshadowing a very good 15-8 season.  He too had above average numbers in the WHIP and BAA categories, but his 184 IP helped keep the bullpen fresh, and he lucked into a nice number of wins.  Speaking of bullpen, the Giants have a lot of strong contenders in that bullpen, though no leader.  Bruce Bochy is planning on using a committee to close, though Sergio Romo should get first crack at it.  He took over for an injured Brian Wilson last year and notched 14 Saves and 23 Holds while keeping the job in the postseason.  His 1.79 ERA matched his miniscule 0.85 WHIP and 185 BAA.  However he wasn’t the Saves leader on this team.  Rather, Santiago Casilla and his 25 Saves led the ballclub.  He pitched to a 2.84 ERA with solid secondary numbers though not quite as good as Romo’s.  I’d guess he notches more Saves this year too, but will be number 2 behind Romo.  So he’ll also set up.  Those two lock down the 8th and 9th with Jeremy Affeldt for the 7th and a host of quality arms backing them up.  Again, pitching wins championships, and the Giants should have plenty of it to lead them back to the Promised Land this season.

2013 Prediction:

The Giants won it all last year.  Hard to find fault.  But they struggled in the playoffs and needed out of this world postseason performances to win the big prize.  They’d like it to be easier this year.  I don’t think it will be.  Their division is looking scary with a completely different Diamondback team and a full season of the high spending Dodgers to contend with.  If they can somehow find magic again, they could win it all.  But with their offensive struggles and pitchers due for a little regression, I think I’m picking them to finish second in the division and just outside of the playoffs.

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