Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

Toronto Blue Jays:            Staying in the AL East, the next team we will look at will be the last team (alphabetically), the Toronto Blue Jays.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Adam Lind

2B            Kelly Johnson

SS            Yunel Escobar

3B            Edwin Encarnacion

LF            Eric Thames

CF            Colby Rasmus

RF            Jose Bautista

C              J.P. Arencibia

DH           Travis Snider

Projected Starting Rotation:

Ricky Romero

Brandon Morrow

Brett Cecil

Henderson Alvarez

Dustin McGowan

Projected Batting Order:

SS            Yunel Escobar

LF            Eric Thames

RF            Jose Bautista

1B            Adam Lind

CF            Colby Rasmus

2B            Kelly Johnson

DH           Travis Snider

3B            Edwin Encarnacion

C              J.P. Arencibia

The Blue Jays ended the season at 81-81.  A 500 record was good enough for fourth in the AL East.  You feel bad that geography limits this team to a 500 record with better than 500 talent.  But you can’t feel too bad for them, as the Rays and Orioles have to deal with the same thing.  GM Alex Anthopolous has put a good team together with strong trades.  He’s done a great job taking on people who were problems on their old teams (Yunel Escobar and Colby Rasmus) and gets really talented players for a great price.  His offense looks really strong.  And while that pitching staff isn’t amazing, it is improving and has three solid guys at the top.  The Blue Jays are a good team in a tough division.  Were they in the Central or West, perhaps they’d make the playoffs a little more often.  But that’s beyond their control, so the only thing they can do is make the best of what they have, and try to make the playoffs for the first time since their last World Series title in 1993.

The best player on this team is Jose Bautista.  He led the team in AVG (302), HR (43) and RBI (103).  He also led the team in R (105) and hits (155).  In addition to leading the Blue Jays, he also led the MLB in HRs for the second straight year.  This guy looks like he’s for real.  He was in the MVP discussion for the second year in a row.  He plays a solid right field, and also plays some third base.  The Blue Jays are building around this guy and he is hoping to keep them an offensive force in 2012.  Shortstop Yunel Escobar had the second best AVG on the team, hitting 290.  He chipped in 11 HR, 48 RBI and 77 R hitting mainly out of the leadoff spot last year.  He doesn’t have great speed (3 SBs), but his OBP was pretty good at 369.  He plays a slick defensive shortstop and has plenty of tools.  They like him leading off.  His double play partner is another former Brave, Kelly Johnson.  Johnson got off to a hot start in Arizona, but then struggled and eventually was traded to Toronto for Aaron Hill.  When Johnson got to Toronto, he picked it up a bit hitting 270 with 3 HR, 9 RBI and 3 SB in 33 games.  Overall, Johnson had a pretty strong season with 21 HR, 58 RBI, 75 R and 16 SB.  And while that 222 AVG wasn’t great, he picked it up in Toronto, and the Jays hope he can keep hitting like that for a full season.  If so, this could be a 20/20 guy, though 15/15 is a better expectation.  Staying on the right side of the infield, we find Adam Lind.  Lind had a pretty good season hitting 251 with 26 HR and 87 RBI.  While that’s not special for his position, it is very solid production, and he provides pretty good protection for Bautista.  They’d like to see more of the same next season.  The last man in the infield is Edwin Encarnacion over at the hot corner.  Encarnacion had a good season, hitting 272 with 17 HR, 55 RBI and 70 R.  Both the power and AVG were pleasant surprises.  He’s had power before, and good AVG before, but never both at the same time.  He’s almost playing too well right now, as he’s keeping the young stud Brett Lawrie from regular playing time.  But if Snider struggles at DH (he’s been very streaky throughout his career) or Encarnacion isn’t getting it done at third (also a possibility) look for Lawrie to push his way into the starting lineup.  He had an impressive call-up last season, playing in 43 games and hitting 293 with 9 HR, 25 RBI, 26 R and 7 SB.  They are excited about the possibilities a full season of Lawrie could bring.  And they will be looking for reasons to get him in the lineup.  As of this writing, it seems that Lawrie will play third and Encarnacion and will be the primary DH.  Moving to left field, we find Eric Thames.  In 95 games last season he hit 262 with 12 HR, 37 RBI and 58 R.  He’s probably got the inside track to starting in left.  He was pretty good at the top of the order too.  But he’s young and still learning.  If he struggles, he could drop down to later in the lineup and be replaced by a Kelly Johnson or Colby Rasmus at the top.  Also, Snider can play left, and that would give them a chance to move Encarnacion to DH and put Lawrie in the lineup.  They have a couple of options when it comes to making up the lineup.  And the good news is that they have plenty of talented offensive pieces in place and will most likely have a great lineup every night.

While the Blue Jays have a very strong offense, their pitching is their weak point.  Their best pitcher last season was Ricky Romero.  He led the team with 15 Wins, 225 IP, and a 2.92 ERA.  His WHIP was very good at 1.14 and his BAA was fantastic at 216.  However the other pitchers struggled after him.  Brandon Morrow was probably the second best pitcher on the staff.  He led the team with 203 Ks.  But that came with an 11-11 record and a 4.72 ERA.  His WHIP was okay at 1.29 and his BAA of 237 was good.  They hope he can continue to overpower hitters, and maybe have a little more luck on his side when it comes to giving up runs.  And they need Morrow and Romero to lead the staff, because the drop off after them last season was steep.  Brett Cecil and Jo-Jo Reyes were tied for third on the team with 20 starts.  Both had losing records and neither had good ERAs. (Cecil 4.73, and Reyes 5.40).  Cecil’s other numbers weren’t terrible (1.33 WHIP, 256 BAA, 122 hits in 123 IP).  He’s slotted to be the number 3 man, and they hope he can continue to improve as he gets more experience under his belt.  They are less excited about Reyes, who has been iffy his whole career.  None of his numbers were good (306 BAA, 1.59 WHIP, 140 hits in 110 IP).  He will probably end up in the bullpen.  Henderson Alvarez is likely going to get a long look as a starter.  In 10 starts in his rookie season last year, he went 1-3 with a 3.53 ERA.  His WHIP was very good at 1.13 and his BAA was okay at 262.  He’s young, and they want to give him a chance to succeed.  The options for 5^th starter include former Blue Jays starters Kyle Drabek and Dustin McGowan.  Drabek, who will be a third year player, started 14 games last season.  He went 4-5 with a 6.06 ERA, 1.81 WHIP and 289 BAA.  That’s not good.  They like his stuff, but in two years, he’s amassed a career 5.83 ERA and 290 BAA.  If he can’t figure it out soon, he won’t be starting in this rotation.  McGowan missed the 2009 and 2010 seasons to injury.  He came back least season without much fanfare, going 0-2 in 4 starts with a 6.43 ERA.  In his last full season in 2007, he went 12-10 in 27 starts with a 4.08 ERA.  The following season saw 19 starts and a 6-7 record with a 4.37 ERA.  They want to give him a shot too.  Other options include, Jesse Litsch and Luis Perez.  Some combination of those guys are going to start and try and make it to a bullpen with Sergio Santos likely to close with former Reds closer Francisco Cordero there to setup and provide insurance to Santos.  Cordero hasn’t looked as good the past few seasons, and the Blue Jays hope setting up will serve him better.  Jason Frasor also has closing experience if either of those falters.  With three closers, you like their bullpen’s depth.  The Blue Jays hope that these guys can anchor them in the late innings, and keep their team in games that their offense might be able to pull out.

2012 Prediction…The Blue Jays are a good team.  In a different division they might have a shot at the wildcard, or even the division crown.  But they play in the AL East.  Their great offense carries the team, but it is maybe the third best in the division.  (Perhaps they are better then the Red Sox, perhaps not…the Yankees are far and away the best).  Their pitching staff is not strong, perhaps the 4^th best in the division.  So while they have pieces, their best part (their offense) doesn’t measure up to other team’s offenses.  And their pitching is not strong (only better than Baltimore in the division), and that’s going to hurt them.  I don’t see this team making the playoffs.  They are good, probably going to finish better than 500.  But I don’t think that will be enough this season, as they are likely going to finish in 4^th place, with around 80 wins.  But this team is getting better.  If they can get some pitching pieces in place, then this will be a team to be wary of in the future.

Up next…Chicago White Sox.