Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

Tampa Bay Rays:            The next team in the AL East is the Tampa Bay Rays

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Carlos Pena

2B            Ben Zobrist

SS            Sean Rodriguez

3B            Evan Longoria

LF            Desmond Jennings

CF            B.J. Upton

RF            Matt Joyce

C              Jose Loboton

DH           Luke Scott

Projected Starting Rotation:

David Price

James Shields

Jeremy Hellickson

Wade Davis

Jeff Niemann

Projected Batting Order:

LF            Desmond Jennings

CF            B.J. Upton

3B            Evan Longoria

1B            Carlos Pena

2B            Ben Zobrist

DH           Luke Scott

RF            Matt Joyce

SS            Sean Rodriguez

C              Jose Loboton

The Tampa Bay Rays had a good season last year.  They played tough all year, even though it looked like they were out of the playoffs throughout September.  But they kept playing hard, and after an epic Red Sox collapse, they were able to take the Wildcard after finishing second in the AL East with a 91-71 record.  And though the Red Sox collapse made this all possible, if they weren’t on fire at the end of the season they never would have had a chance to make the playoffs.  The Rays are the rarest of breeds:  a competitive AL East team with a below average payroll.  They won the AL wildcard ahead of the heavy spending Red Sox, and the moderate spending Orioles and Blue Jays.  The year before they won the whole division ahead of the even the heaviest of spenders, the New York Yankees.  In fact, the Rays’ projected 2012 payroll is $62 million, dead last in their division and nearly 3 times less than the MLB leading New York Yankees ($204 million).  In fact 2 of the top 3 teams in projected 2012 payroll share this division (the aforementioned Yankees are first and the Red Sox come in at third with $167 million) with them, but they are still believed to be in the mix for not only the Wildcard, but also the AL East title.  At worst they are still expected to finish above the other two teams in the division, both of which outspend them (Toronto:  $82 million & Baltimore:  $73 million).  How can they do this?  They have a great front office and smart baseball people.  Joe Maddon puts strong teams on the field, and the Rays have a great eye for talent.  All of their stars or former stars have been home-grown and they succeed until they become to expensive for the team and are let go via trade (Scott Kazmir) or in free agency (Carl Crawford).  They’ve been great in the draft and get good value for the players they’ve traded away for years.  Now they are a good team with plenty of youth, and the possibility of being good for many years.  They hope that this year continues the trend of the past few years for them, and they find themselves playing some October baseball.  (the projected payroll numbers came to me courtesy of Jeff Passan’s column for Yahoo sports, found here: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AtblPPz5QcBu.U9TS1qMHL4RvLYF?slug=jp-passan_oakland_athletics_yoenis_cespedes_021312.  He got the numbers from Baseball Prospectus, found here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/)

This team was again led by their star third baseman, Evan Longoria.  Despite missing around 30 games, he still led the team with 31 HR and 99 RBI.  The rest of his numbers were way down though, as he only hit 244 with 3 SBs.  But he did take some walks and get himself a 355 OBP.  If healthy, he’s one of the top offensive threats in the majors.  He hopes to be healthier next year and for that to return him to the numbers we’ve seen in the past (280+ AVG, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 80+ R and 10+ SB).  The one positive sign from his injury-shortened season is that he came within two HRs of his career high in 24 fewer games.  So while we aren’t sure where is speed and AVG will end up, he should give you good AVG, very good power, and bonus stolen bases.  And he is the heart and soul of this team. Casey Kotchman actually led the team with a 306 AVG last season.  Among the returning Rays, Matt Joyce had the highest AVG at 277.  With that, the young right fielder threw in 19 HR, 75 RBI and 13 SBs.  Those were the best numbers of his 4-year career and they came in his first season as a starter.  He certainly earned himself another season of starting in right, and they hope that these numbers will be the norm for him.  The Rays actually really need it to be, especially with so many other young guys that have question marks around them.  B.J. Upton has been a troubled player through his seasons in the majors.  They couldn’t find a spot for him, originally having him at second.  He was benched for lack of hustle, and has trouble focusing at times.  But when he is focused he is a dangerous player.  He was second on the team with 23 HRs and 82 R, and third on the team with 81 RBI.  He also led the team with 36 SBs.  His AVG was a little low (243) but he’s got tons of raw talent and plenty of tools.  He also needs to have another strong season for this team to contend.  The other major piece of this offense is Ben Zobrist.  Zobrist plays all over the field but is slotted to be at second this season.  Last year, he hit 269 with 20 HR, 91 RBI, 19 SBs and a team leading 99 R.  He needs to bring at least that much to the table next year, as he’s an important presence in this lineup.  The Rays have a lot of guys who can give you plus AVG, with 20 HR power and 20 SB potential.  And while not all of them need to be 20/20 guys, they all need to produce in different ways to make this offense go.  This isn’t a top offense, but it is effective.  And it has to continue to be, especially in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox offenses, and the improving Blue Jays offense.  The good news for this young team is that they have some help.  Former Ray Carlos Pena has returned to the team after a one-year stint with the Chicago Cubs.  Pena is a tremendous power hitter who plays Gold Glove defense at first base.  In addition, he walks a ton and is a boon to any team’s OBP.  Sure enough, last year was a prime example as he had 28 HR, 80 RBI and 72 R.  He walked over 100 times, and had a 357 OBP.  Despite his 225 AVG, he had a tremendous year.  In fact batting AVG seems to be one of only two parts of the game where he is lacking.  (Ks being the other.  150+ the last 3 years).  He’s consistent (back to back years with 28 HR and 80+ RBI) and is only two years removed from an All Star season that saw a 227 AVG with 39 HR and 100 RBI.  His bat packs a powerful punch, necessary to this team’s success.  In addition to Pena’s powerful bat, the Rays signed former Orioles’ DH Luke Scott to play the same position on their squad.  2008-2010 saw 23+ HR and 65+ RBI.  2 of those three years saw 25 HR and 70+ RBI.  Last year he only played in 64 games, hitting 220 with 9 HR and 22 RBI.  But if he’s healthy he’s another bat that can hit 20+ HR, as well as back up first base and left field.  Speaking of left field, that’s where we find young Desmond Jennings, who is being hailed as the second coming of Carl Crawford.  In his rookie season last year (as long as you don’t count 17 games in 2010), Jennings hit 259 with 10 HR, 25 RBI, 44 R and 20 SBs.  He produced that in only 63 games.  He’s slotted to open the season with the team this year, and probably bat leadoff.  This guy could steal 50 bases in a full season, and should be good for 100 R easily.  Also positive is the power, which translates to about 30 HR in a full year.  If he can hit like that, this team should be well on it’s way to competing for the postseason all year.

David Price was expected to be the ace of this rotation.  Instead, James Shields stepped up and showed that it could be him as well.  He led the team last year in Wins (16), ERA (2.82) and Ks (225).  He did all that with a 1.04 WHIP and a 217 BAA.  And perhaps the most impressive numbers were his 11 CGs and 4 SHOs.  Those numbers are Cy Young worthy, especially in the AL East against the mighty Yankees and Red Sox bats.  All the numbers point to his being able to repeat that sort of success in 2012.  Another pitcher who came out of nowhere to really impress was AL Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson.  Hellickson was second amongst starters with 13 Wins and a 2.95 ERA.  He wasn’t a power pitcher like Shields or Price, but he did have a stellar 1.15 WHIP and led the team in BAA at 210.  He had 189 IP in 29 starts and showed that the Rays are loaded with pitching talent.  After those two surprise candidates came the pitcher we all expected to be good:  David Price.  He had an unfortunate record at 12-13.  But he was second on the team in IP with 224 (Shields led with 249!), and second in Ks with 218.  He also had a solid 3.49 ERA, a fantastic 1.14 WHIP and a good 230 BAA.  Those three guys are all legitimate aces, and they are the force that wins games for this Tampa Bay club.  After those three you find Wade Davis (11-10 4.45 ERA) and Jeff Niemann (11-7 4.06 ERA).  Both are very solid pitchers, who are able to get the job done in a tough division.  Those 5 are the starting rotation and are very good.  And the most frightening part about this group is that there is a youngster behind them in Matt Moore, who is a pitching phenom.  In 9 IP for the Rays last season he struck out 15 hitters and earned himself a 2.89 ERA.  In two stops in Double and Triple A last season, he combined for a 12-3 record with 210 Ks in 155 IP.  His ERA was a miniscule 1.92 and he projects to be another ace in this rotation.  Injury or ineffectiveness gets him into the rotation, and he may just lurk in the bullpen until then, ready to mow hitters down.  That bullpen features Kyle Farnsworth as a closer and Joel Peralta and J.P Howell setting up for him.  It’s not the strongest group, but a strong group of starters may prove that it’s not that important.  Pitching wins championships, and the Rays may have the best pitching in the division.

2012 Prediction…The Rays are the third fantastic team in the AL East.  The rules of the game state that no more than 2 teams can get into the playoffs.  So the question is will offense (Yankees), pitching (Rays) or a mix (Red Sox), win the day?  I always think good pitching beats good hitting, and for my money that means the Rays should play October baseball.  But no one can really know.  Yet if the Rays pitch well, and their offense plays up to it’s capability, I think this team could be the division winner easily, and could continue to be strong for years to come. 

Up next…Toronto Blue Jays.