Hot Stove: A rundown of each team in the offseason
and what they are looking to improve in 2012.
Boston Red Sox: Staying
in the AL East, we move to the next team, alphabetically, the Boston Red Sox.
Projected Starting
Lineup:
1B Adrian
Gonzalez
2B Dustin
Pedroia
SS Mike
Aviles
3B Kevin
Youkilis
LF Carl
Crawford
CF Jacoby
Ellsbury
RF Cody
Ross
C Jarrod
Saltalamacchia
DH David
Ortiz
Projected Starting
Rotation:
Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
Clay Buchholz
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Andrew Miller
Projected Batting
Order:
CF Jacoby
Ellsbury
2B Dustin
Pedroia
1B Adrian
Gonzalez
3B Kevin
Youkilis
DH David
Ortiz
LF Carl
Crawford
C Jarrod
Saltalamacchia
RF Cody
Ross
SS Mike
Aviles
The Red Sox were considered the prohibitive favorites for
the AL penant last season. After a
terrible April and a shocking collapse in September, the Red Sox ended up
blowing a 9 game lead to lose the Wildcard to their AL East counterparts, the
Tampa Rays, on the last day of the season. After such a shocking collapse, fingers were pointed and it
came out that the Boston clubhouse was not the most conducive environment to
baseball activities. Pitchers Josh
Beckett, Jon Lester and John Lackey were eating beer and fried chicken in the
clubhouse during games. This,
combined with the epic collapse, led to manager Terry Francona losing his job,
Theo Epstein bolting for the Cubs, and the Red Sox having to deal with the
failed expectations of last season with a new manager and new GM. But Ben Cherington was the handpicked
successor of Theo Epstein, and the team hopes he can continue what Epstein
started. The next step for the Red
Sox was to get a new manager. They
hired former ESPN analyst Bobby Valentine, who hasn’t managed in the majors
since 2002. Some think they went
for flash over substance (my personal opinion), but Bobby V is certainly a
capable manager, and with the talent on the Red Sox roster he doesn’t have the
toughest managing job on the planet.
In the end the Sox had a fairly quiet offseason, making a few trades and
free agent pickups to add depth to the bullpen (Mark Melancon), the back of the
rotation (Andrew Miller), bench depth (Nick Punto, Ryan Sweeney, Cody Ross,
Kelly Shoppach) and take a long shot on some former major league starters by
giving them minor league contracts (Vicente Padilla and Aaron Cook). Some look at this relative inactivity
as a bad start for the new GM, but you could also argue that the Red Sox didn’t
make any major moves because the didn’t have to. They lost out on the wildcard on the last day of the
season. Their NL counterparts who
had did the same thing (the Atlanta Braves) sat pat this offseason, figuring
that they were one of the best teams in their league up until the final day of
the season. The Red Sox probably
figure the same thing, and if they are right, they’d like to think that a bad
start and a bad finish won’t keep them from the playoffs this season.
Adrian Gonzalez and Jacoby Ellsbury were the leaders of this
club last season. Adrian Gonzalez
led the team a 338 AVG and 117 RBI.
He was also third on the team with 27 HR. That’s what the Sox were hoping for when they signed him,
and he delivered. Ellsbury was in
the MVP discussion after his 2011 season.
He was second on the team with a 321 AVG and led the team with 32
HRs. No one saw that power
coming. With those numbers, he
delivered 105 RBI, 119 R and 39 SBs.
His 212 H were also second on the team, and with all those numbers he
chipped in great defense in his first season back in center. (He played left the year before when
Mike Cameron manned center).
Ellsbury was always considered good, but he was great last year. Add to that Adrian Gonzalez’s
greatness, and this team has two players who could be MVPs in 2012. They will lead this team. They had a strong supporting cast
including the time defying DH David Ortiz and former MVP Dustin Pedroia. Ortiz was second on the team with 29
HR, and chipped in a 309 AVG and 96 RBI to go with that power. That’s pretty good for someone who was
considered done at a few points in the previous years. He’ll probably be back for at least one
more season in Fenway after his arbitration hearing. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia also had a strong season at
the top of the lineup. He hit 307
with 21 HR and 91 RBI. He also
chipped in 102 R and 26 SBs as well as playing a fantastic defensive second
base. After those 4 hitters, other
Red Sox starters struggled. Kevin
Youkilis was dealing with injuries last season, and was limited to 120
games. He was never able to fully
shake the injury hitting 258 with 17 HR and 80 RBI. He was still a walks machine (373 OBP), but the injury still
limited him enough to give him his first major slump year in the majors. The bigger slump came from last year’s
free agent signing, Carl Crawford.
Crawford came over from the Rays as a free agent before last season, and
signed a big $142 million dollar contract. He did not deliver in his first season in Boston. He hit 255 with only 18 SBs and 65
R. He missed 30 games due to injury
and spent most of the year batting near the bottom of the Boston lineup. He’s a difficult fit as it is. He doesn’t walk enough to be a good
leadoff hitter, he’s never hit more than 20 HRs, and he while his glove is
strong, his arm keeps him stuck in leftfield. He likes to hit second, but MVP Dustin Pedroia is pretty
well entrenched there, and Ellsbury is the far superior leadoff man. So even when healthy, you are looking
at a $142 million dollar leftfielder batting in the bottom third of the lineup. That does speak to the strength of this
team, but it already makes some fans dubious of what Crawford is getting
paid. Underperforming on top of
that will really not endear him to the Fenway Faithful. He is looking for a bounce-back year
nearly as much as the Boston brass is.
The rest of the team is made up of streaky catcher Jarrod
Saltalamacchia, new right field tandem of Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney, and a
hole at shortstop that will be filled with a combination of Nick Punto and Mike
Aviles. Salty hit a disappointing
235, but had decent pop in his 103 games, with 16 HR and 56 RBI. Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney look to
split time in right. Sweeney hit
265 with 1 HR and 65 RBI in 103 games.
Cody Ross hit 240 with 14 HR and 52 RBI for the Giants last season. Neither of these guys is a star. But both play solid on both sides of
the plate. And Darnell McDonald
lurks on the bench if those two struggle.
A similar platoon situation will be found at short next season. They traded away their top two guys at
that position in this offseason (Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie). Scutaro was a great shortstop for them
last season, but they feel that the rest of their lineup is strong enough to
make up for any lack at short.
Aviles has a great bat and bad glove. Punto is the opposite.
They will share time in the infield while youngster Jose Iglesias, who
has the best glove of the three of them and worst bat, will lurk to steal
playing time as well. The offense
of Boston should be formidable this season, even if they don’t get the
production they want at short and right.
But the key this season will be bounce-back seasons from Crawford and
Youkilis. If they can play like they
usually do, then this will probably be one of the strongest offenses in
baseball next year.
If the Red Sox really want to make some noise next season,
then it will be their pitching that separates them. As good as they are with the bats, there are teams in their
own division that are as good offensively (the Rays and Blue Jays are both pretty
solid) and one team that is better (the Yankees). However their pitching looks stronger on paper, and if they
can outpitch their AL East counterparts they should be enjoying some October
baseball. Jon Lester was the ace
of this staff last year, leading the team with 15 Wins and 182 Ks. He had a very solid 3.47 ERA to go with
a strong WHIP (1.26) and BAA (234).
Those are good numbers, especially in the AL East. He looks to deliver more of the same in
2012. Josh Beckett was a major
comeback player last season, leading the Red Sox staff with a 2.89 ERA. He joined Lester as the only Red Sox
pitchers to make 30 starts, and Beckett led the team with 193 IP. (Lester had 191). He gave up fewer hits (146) and had the
best WHIP (1.03) and BAA (211) of any Boston starter. He would have liked some better run support, but his 13-7
record was still pretty good.
Beckett and Lester are the leaders of this staff. But they need help behind them if
Boston wants to make the playoffs.
The number three starter of last season was John Lackey. Lackey has become public enemy number
one after signing a monster deal and delivering below average numbers. He did his best Barry Zito impression
last season, going 12-12 in 28 games with a mammoth 6.41 ERA. He’ll be lost for this entire season
with Tommy John surgery and some Red Sox fans couldn’t be happier. He needs to come back a lot better, or
else his contract will go down as one of the worst in baseball history. The number three starter for this
season will be Clay Buccholz.
Buccholz played well last season, but back trouble essentially cost him
the entire second half, and he made only 14 starts total last year. He went 6-3 with a 3.48 ERA and his
WHIP and BAA were solid. The only
concern about him for next season is his health. Speaking of questionable health, Daisuke Matsuzaka is
slotted to be the number 4 starter if healthy this season. Matsuzaka has continued to struggle
after his rookie season, going 3-3 with a 5.30 ERA in 7 starts last year. He pitched one game out of the bullpen
last year, and if he doesn’t improve it’s certainly possible he spends more
time out there in 2012. They don’t
want that, but he’ll almost certainly be a part of the major league roster
regardless next year, due to the amount of money he is owed. Injury questions/ ineffectiveness in
the back of the rotation has led to lots of other suitors wanting to pitch in
Boston. Andrew Miller has a strong
chance to see some starting time, and I’ve tentatively slotted him in as the 5th
starter at this point. In 12
starts last year, he went 6-3 for Boston with a 5.12 ERA. He’s had a high ERA his whole career,
but they seem to want to give him a shot.
However he needs to perform if he doesn’t want to end up in the
bullpen. One bullpen pitcher is
going to be given a shot to start some in spring training. Fire-baller Daniel Bard wants to
start. He began his career as a
starter and the Red Sox moved him to the bullpen in the minors. Bard has been nasty as a set-up man in
Boston. In 70 games, he had a 3.33
ERA and a 0.96 WHIP to go with a 179 BAA.
He struggled in the second half, which drove all of those numbers
up. But he still struck out 74
batters over 73 innings, and has good stuff. He’ll get a long look, and I imagine there’s a good chance
he’ll break the starting rotation at some point in the season. After him, there are multiple other
options for back of the rotation starters including current bullpen pitcher
Alfredo Aceves and veterans Vicente Padilla and Aaron Cook. The Red Sox aren’t looking for a star,
just some consistency as they had 10 different guys start games for them last
season. If they can get some good
starts out of those guys to fill in for either injury or ineffectiveness, then
the Red Sox hope that their offense will help these guys earn some extra wins
and help send them to the playoffs.
These starters are hoping to get the team into the late innings where
new set up man Mark Melancon and new closer Andrew Bailey will look to close
out the games with wins for Boston.
2012 Prediction…The Red Sox are a good team. They were
expected to win the pennant last season and fell short. With lesser expectations, they might be
able to surprise some people this year.
The bad news for them is that they play in the toughest division in
baseball. The good news, is that
they have the second highest payroll.
They will have challenges from the Yankees and Rays, both of which are
very good. The Yankees can outspend
them, and the Rays are young and talented. And the Blue Jays are very talented too. At best, only two of these teams can
make the playoffs. But with two
strong teams out west, a wildcard slot isn’t guaranteed to the East this season. It’s a two-edged sword for the Sox who
are very talented, but play really strong competition. If their pitching is as strong as it
should be, they hope they can measure up and win the division. But if it struggles, they still have a
shot at the wildcard. I’d say the
chances are pretty good that we will see them in the postseason. But, regardless, at least one good team
from the east won’t make it to October.
The Red Sox hope it won’t
be them for the second season in a row.
Up next…New York Yankees
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