Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

San Diego Padres:            The next team on our list is the San Diego Padres.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Yonder Alonso

2B            Orlando Hudson

SS            Jason Bartlett

3B            Chase Headley

LF            Will Venable

CF            Cameron Maybin

RF            Carlos Quentin

C              Nick Hundley

Projected Starting Rotation:

Tim Stauffer

Cory Luebke

Edinson Volquez

Dustin Moseley

Clayton Richard

Projected Batting Order:

CF            Cameron Maybin

SS            Jason Bartlett

RF            Carlos Quentin

3B            Chase Headley

1B            Yonder Alonso

2B            Orlando Hudson

LF            Will Venable

C              Nick Hundley

The Padres had a bad 2011.  Their 71-91 record was tied for second worst in the NL.  (Worst was the Astros.  The Padres tied with the Cubs for second worst).  However they are clearly a re-building team and they are getting closer and closer to contending, especially in the weak NL West.  This offseason saw GM Josh Byrnes engineer a massive trade with the Cubs that sent Mike Rizzo to Chicago for hard throwing righty Andrew Cashner.  And while Cashner is slated to begin the season in the bullpen, a move to the rotation probably isn’t too far off.  In addition he made another massive trade with the Reds, sending talented pitcher Mat Latos to Cincinnati for Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso and two prospects, among them their future catcher Yasmani Grandal.  They then made two low risk trades to bring in Huston Street and Carlos Quentin.  With this team, they hope to contend this year in the West, while continuing to groom some of their many highly touted prospects to come up and join the Major League club. 

This team is not built around offense.  Part of that is because Petco is where offense goes to die.  But also because they haven’t had any true offensive weapons since Adrian Gonzalez got traded to the Red Sox.  Ryan Ludwick led the team with 11 HR and 64 RBI last season.  That’s abysmal.  They do still have the team leader in AVG from last season, Cameron Maybin.  But that AVG was 264, and that’s perhaps even more gag inducing.  The good thing about Maybin is that he was able to score 82 R in a shortened season of 137 games, and also swipe 40 bags.  In a full season, 100 R and 50 SBs aren’t out of the question, especially if someone halfway decent is attempting to drive him in.  The other top of the order bat for San Diego, SS Jason Bartlett, also had a subpar year in limited duty.  His 245 AVG is as bad as his 308 OBP.  He was able to swipe 23 bags, but he could have had more if he were ever on base.  This guy has no power, especially in Petco.  (2 HR last season).  But they pay him to work the count, get on base, move Maybin over, and occasionally steal bases and come around to score himself.  Again it’s hard to blame him for not coming around to score with what he has hitting behind him.  But if it wouldn’t matter if Pujols, Fielder and Votto were hitting behind him if he weren’t on base.  You can’t score runs if you don’t get on base.  There’s a Kiner-ism for you.  With these two missing time, we saw a lot of Will Venable at the top of the lineup, and he turned in a similar line to the guys he replaced:  a 246 AVG, with a 310 OBP and 26 SBs in even fewer games (121).  These guys have plenty of speed, they just need to find some gaps and come around to score.  If everyone’s healthy, Venable hits later in the lineup, but he’s a solid hitter who could move up to the top if one of these two struggles.  So if some combination of those 3 guys is leading off, who’s knocking them in?  Well that job goes to new comers Carlos Quentin and Yonder Alonso, and a Padre from last year, Chase Headley.  Headley is the only one in the trio with any experience in Petco.  His first two full seasons in San Diego saw an AVG in the low 260s with 11 & 12 HR, and 64 & 58 RBI.  He also chipped in around 15 SBs both years.  However he saw limited action last season with 4 HR and 44 RBI in 381 ABs.  He was on his way to a career high in SBs (already had 13 in half as many games), and was also hitting above his average at 289.  They have been hoping he would turn into a star for a while, and last season he might have been on his way to turning a corner.  The Padres hope he can keep that fire going in a full season this year.  The other guy they have high hopes for is Carlos Quentin.  He is best remembered for his All Star season in 2008, which saw him hit 36 HR and drive in 100 in an injury-shortened season of 130 games.  He was in the MVP discussion before he got hurt.  He hasn’t since found that magic again, but he’s hit over 20 HRs in every season, all of them in 131 games or less.  So it’s a two edged sword here.  He’s very consistent with his power and his injuries.  Expect 20 HR and 30 games on the DL.  However the hope is there, that if he ever played a full season, we could again be looking at 30 HR and 100 RBI.  But in Petco 30 HR is probably the ceiling in a weak division with strong pitching.  A more reasonable expectation for a full season is 25 HR, though, history tells us, to expect 130 games, and, taking into account his new home stadium, perhaps 17 HRs.  The real hope for the future of San Diego is their new first baseman Yonder Alonso.  Alonso hit 330 with 5 HR and 15 RBI for Cincinnati in only 88 ABs last year.  That was even better than most scouts were hoping for.  But it’s not too surprising.  In 2 Triple A seasons, he hit 296 with 24 HR and 112 RBI.  This guy has great talent and is getting better every year.  There are concerns that his power won’t translate at Petco (no one’s does) since he’s not a true HR hitter (averaged 12 HRs a year in Triple A). But if he can hit for a high AVG and drive in runs this guy will be a force to be reckoned with in the future.  That’s the heart of the Padres lineup.  They have some help from veteran Orlando Hudson at second and Nick Hundley holding Yasmani Grandal’s place behind the plate.  Scary they are not, but the Padres are hoping they will be effective enough behind a talented young pitching staff to contend, if not this season, then in the near future.

The Padres pitching staff looks completely different this year than it did last season. 2011’s leader in Wins, Aaron Harang, has since moved on to the Dodgers as a free agent.  The team leader in ERA and Ks was traded to Cincinnati in the offseason.  But we’re not just talking about the starting rotation.  The back end of the bullpen in completely different with Mike Adams being traded to Texas in the middle of last season and free agent Heath Bell departing for Miami in the offseason.  Some would be concerned with all those pitchers departing, especially since pitching was one of the only areas where the Padres performed well.  They had the third lowest team ERA in the league.  But Josh Byrnes knows that his farm system has a wealth of talented young arms, some ready to join the major leagues today, others a few years down the road.  Tim Stauffer is the current ace of this staff, being the most experienced pitcher remaining.  He and Mat Latos were the only pitchers on the staff to start over 30 games (both had 31 starts).  He was also second on the team in IP with 185.  (Latos led in that category with 194 IP).  However, after those numbers, everything else was rather pedestrian.  His ERA was 3.73 and he only struck out 128 hitters.  His WHIP was solid at 1.25 and his BAA wasn’t terrible at 258.  Nothing was terrible, but nothing was great.  And even playing in a great pitchers park like Petco only netted him a 9-12 record.  He’s in his 6^th season, but only his second full year as a starter.  They are hoping that he can continue to make strides and help lead these young guys.  One of those young guys is Cory Luebke who had a 6-10 record in 17 starts.  He was a true bright spot with a 3.29 ERA, and a sparkling 1.07 WHIP and 209 BAA.  He also had 154 Ks in 139 IP.  He had a fantastic season and showed terrific growth in his second year in the majors.  If this is a sign of things to come, the Padres will be thrilled with Luebke as a leader of this rotation.  The other two young starters had mixed results.  Dustin Moseley had a terrible 3-10 record.  His ERA was great a 3.30.  But he gave up almost as many hits as IP, had a 255 BAA and only 64 Ks.  They are hoping he continues to figure out major league hitting, and Petco is a great place to learn to pitch.  (I may have mentioned that Petco is a pitcher’s park…a couple of times…I’ll do it again).  The other young pitcher, Clayton Richard, had a better record than Moseley, but his other numbers weren’t as strong.  He was 5-9 with a 3.88 ERA and 272 BAA.  Both of these guys are young, and learning, and in a forgiving environment to figure things out.  Neither projects to be a star, but both will be solid.  Their newest starter is former Red Edinson Volquez.  Volquez came over with Alonso in the Latos deal and projects to be the number 3 starter.  He didn’t play great in Cincinnati last year, going 5-7 in 20 starts.  His ERA was cringe-worthy (5.71), but his other numbers weren’t as bad.  His 254 BAA was pretty average and he struck out almost one hitter per inning.  Great American Ballpark is a bandbox.  Petco, for those of you just joining this post, is a great pitcher’s park.  Volquez has great stuff and a live arm.  If he can continue to improve, and maybe find some of his 08 magic, he’ll have some great seasons in San Diego and be a valuable asset in this organization.  This starting rotation will try to get their team into the late innings with a lead, where they can hand it over to Micah Owings and Luke Gregerson to hold things over until new closer Huston Street can close things out.  Street is a proven commodity, though he’s had his shaky seasons.  But if he can turn in a strong performance this year, and the other pieces of that bullpen can bridge the gap, then the Padres should have strong enough pitching this season to fit in with their NL West counterparts.

2012 Prediction…The Padres are young.  They are re-building.  They are close to contending.  But this isn’t the season.  I will say that this team in a different division is years away from making any noise.  But they are building this team around pitchers, and pitching wins championships.  It won’t win one this year, but it’s not hard to imagine this team contending for some NL West crowns in the futures.    

Up next…San Francisco Giants.