Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

Philadelphia Phillies:            Staying in the NL East, we will next look at last season’s division winner, the Phillies.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Ryan Howard

2B            Chase Utley

SS            Jimmy Rollins

3B            Placido Polanco

LF            Laynce Nix

CF            Shane Victorino

RF            Hunter Pence

C              Carlos Ruiz

Projected Starting Rotation:

Roy Halladay

Cliff Lee

Cole Hamels

Joe Blanton

Vance Worley

Projected Batting Order:

SS            Jimmy Rollins

CF            Shane Victorino

2B            Chase Utley

1B            Ryan Howard

RF            Hunter Pence

3B            Placido Polanco

LF            Laynce Nix

C              Carlos Ruiz

The Phillies were the class of the National League last year, winning 102 games, tops in the MLB.  This has been one of the most complete teams for the past few years, so the majority of the moves they made this offseason were more for bench dept and to shore up their bullpen.  They signed Dontrelle Willis, Ty Wigginton, Laynce Nix (who I think will start in left over Domonic Brown), Jim Thome (who may be filling in at first if Ryan Howard misses the beginning of the season with a healing Achilles) and Jonathan Papelbon who will anchor their bullpen as the closer.  That left them free to let Ryan Madson go and avoid arbitration with Brad Lidge.  They recently re-signed Kyle Kendrick who pitched well last season while Blanton and Oswalt dealt with injuries.  Oswalt is a free agent this season and could return if he comes back for a discount (which I don’t think he’ll do).  If he does return, he will be the 4^th starter and push Blanton to 5^th and Worley (or Kendrick) to the bullpen.  Lidge will not be back and Gload is probably expendable with Thome on the bench. 

The Phillies’ vaunted offense had a bit of a down year last season, though with so much talent they were still formidable.  Utley and Victorino missed some time and Ruiz and Polanco missed even more.  Victorino still played enough to lead the team in AVG, hitting 279.  Howard was the team leader in HR (33) and RBI (116) as is to be expected.    Hunter Pence joined the team at the trade deadline and was hot, hitting 324 with 11 HR and 35 RBI in 54 games.  They hope that healthy seasons from their stars, plus a full season of Pence will return them to their place at the top of the NL’s offenses. 

And as good as their hitters are, their pitchers are what made headlines last season.  Ace Roy Halladay led the team with 19 Wins and a 2.35 ERA.  He is back to head an all-star rotation.  The number 2 starter would be the ace anywhere else.  Cliff Lee had a great season going 17-8 with a 2.40 ERA and leading the team with 238 Ks.  And Hamels was next with a 14-9 record and a 2.79 ERA and 194 Ks.  All three of these guys pitched over 200 innings and had Whips around 1 (Hamels’ was actually the best at 0.94).  Their 4^th starter last season was Roy Oswalt, who only started 23 games due to injury.  He went 9-10 with a 3.69 ERA in only 139 IP.  The 4^th best starter last season was actually rookie Vance Worley who went 11-3 in 23 starts and logged a 3.01 ERA.  Also pitching well in 15 starts was Kyle Kendrick, who 8-6 with a 3.22 ERA.  The real question (especially if Oswalt returns) is who ends up in the bullpen.  But that bullpen is a lot fancier with Jonathan Papelbon being signed to close out games.  Madson was actually fantastic last season and a much better value than Papelbon.  A comparison of stats shows Madson with one more Save than Papelbon in the same number of opportunities.  And while both had ERAs under 3, Madson’s was better than Papelbon’s (2.37 to 2.94), as was his K rate.  Madson delivered all those numbers for a shade under $5 million last season, while Papelbon gave his numbers for over twice as much at $12 million.  But Papelbon is a more experienced closer and has more upside.  If he’s as good as Madson was last season (or at least as good as his 2011 self which was pretty solid), then the Phillies will be in good shape to repeat as East champions.

2012 Prediction:            The Phillies are as good this year as they were last year.  Though they lost Madson, Lidge and Ibanez, the signings of Papelbon, Nix and Thome should more than make up for that.  If Oswalt comes back this team is even scarier.  And while the Braves got better last year and the Marlins got a lot better this year, the Phillies are still the favorites by far not just to win the East, but have to be prohibitive favorites for the NL Pennant this season.

Up next…Washington Nationals.