Friday, February 10, 2012


Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

Colorado Rockies:  Our next team in the NL West is the Colorado Rockies.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Todd Helton
2B            Marco Scutaro
SS            Troy Tolowitzki
3B            Casey Blake
LF            Carlos Gonzalez
CF            Dexter Fowler
RF            Michael Cuddyer
C              Ramon Hernandez

Projected Starting Rotation:

Jhoulys Chacin
Jeremy Guthrie
Juan Nicasio
Guillermo Moscoso
Drew Pomeranz

Projected Batting Order:

CF            Dexter Fowler
2B            Marco Scutaro
CF            Carlos Gonzalez
SS            Troy Tulowitzki
1B            Todd Helton
RF            Michael Cuddyer
C              Ramon Hernandez
3B            Casey Blake

The Rockies had a disappointing season in 2011, going 73-89 and finishing fourth in the NL West.  They struggled enough early on that they decided to be sellers at the trade deadline, sending ace Ubaldo Jiminez to Cleveland for a slew (yes, slew is the correct vernacular for describing multiple minor leaguers) of prospects, one of which may crack the starting rotation this season (Drew Pomeranz).  However, the Rockies feel like they have a strong core.  And with the NL West being consistently weak, they felt that they were close enough to contending to be aggressive this offseason, making some big trades and free agent signings that they hope will prepare their squad to be playoff contenders. 

Injuries played a major part in the Rockies’ season, especially at the end of the year.  Tulowitzki, Gonzalez and Helton all missed major parts of September and LHP Jorge De La Rosa was lost for the season with Tommy John surgery.  But he’s expected back at the end of May, and the others should be ready for spring training.  And that’s huge for the Rockies because the aforementioned position players were the offensive leaders for this club.  Tulowitzki was the heart and soul of this team, leading them in AVG (302), HR (30), and RBI (105), and playing a fantastic defensive shortstop.  And he did all that in an injury shortened 143 games.  After Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez was next on the list, finishing second in HR and RBI (24 and 92) and third in AVG (295).  But Gonzalez missed even more time, playing in only 127 games.  These two are the club’s future, as both were signed to huge contract extensions after career years in 2010, and contribute in all categories (Gonzalez had 20 SBs last season, Tulowitzki had 9).  And while those two are the future, they are still being helped by a star of the past in 38-year old Todd Helton.  Helton consistently puts together strong seasons out in Denver, and continued it last year hitting 302 in 124 games.  He’s even still got some pop in that bat (14 HR and 69 RBI).  Those three guys carried this team, and the Rockies really struggled without them down the stretch.  For that reason, they need other hitters to step up.  Dexter Fowler didn’t take the leap the Rockies were hoping for in his third full season with the team.  He hit 266 with only 12 SBs and 84 R.  They’d like him to hit in the 275 to 280 range and get on base in front of the big boppers.  If he can do that, 100+ R should be easy for him, not to mention 20 SBs.  For additional top of the lineup help, the Rockies went out and traded for Marco Scutaro to hit and play second for them.  Injury limited him to 113 games last season.  But he did hit 299 in those games with 7 HR, 54 RBI and 59 R.  He’s only two years removed from an All Star season that saw him hit 282 with 12 HR, 60 RBI, 14 SBs and 100 R.  His last healthy season saw 275 with 11 HR, 56 RBI and 92 R.  You aren’t paying for great power or speed here.  But you will get a veteran bat to give you a strong AVG, great defense at second (he was well above average at SS for Boston the last two years), double digit pop and 80+ R.  If he can do that, he can give the Rockies one of the best offenses in the NL West.  The other moves Colorado made were to bring in former Twin Michael Cuddyer in right, former Dodger Casey Blake at third and former Red Ramon Hernandez behind the plate.  Cuddyer had a monster season two years ago hitting 32 HR and driving in 94.  He slumped a bit in 2010 (to the tune of 270, 14, 81) but in limited duty played great last season.  In 139 games he hit 284 with 20 HR and 70 RBI.  They hope he can bring his big bat and its plus AVG to Coors and provide even more depth and power to this lineup.  I think 20 HR will be easy for him in Colorado and he might even crack 100 RBI.  Casey Blake brings a veteran presence to third.  He struggled in an injury-shortened season last year, playing in 63 games and hitting 252 with only 4 HR and 26 RBI.  But they hope a full season can bring 15 HR and about 70 RBI.  Add to that C Ramon Hernandez, whose bat has kept him in a starting role, and you have plus hitters at numbers 1-8 in this lineup.  Injuries have really limited Hernandez in his already limited playing time (he is a catcher).  But if he can stay healthy and find some of that old magic, he should be good for 270+ and they hope Coors can get him back to 15 HR power.  This offense is formidable, and the Rockies will rely on it to carry this team.

The Rockies need great hitting, because all signs point to struggling pitchers this season.  New staff ace Jhoulys Chacin went 11-14 with a 3.62 ERA and 150 Ks last year.  He led the team in Wins, ERA, Ks, IP and games started.  His BAA was 231 and he had a good WHIP of 1.31.  He pitched well at Coors, and well on the road.  He’s not what most teams hope for when they think of an ace, but he’s consistent and shouldn’t hurt them.  After that, things get a little hairy.  Jason Hammel was slotted to be their number 2 starter, but was traded to Baltimore for Jeremy Guthrie.  It seems that Colorado got the better end of this trade, as Baltimore’s motives seemed to be more financially driven, rather than aimed at pitching depth.  Guthrie had a solid season last year, going 9-17 with a 4.33 ERA.  But he did throw over 200 IP and had a passable 1.34 WHIP to go with a 267 BAA.  These numbers aren’t great.  But he is young and improving, and he eats innings.  With some better offensive support he could get to 10 Wins.  No one is expecting magic (especially in Coors Field), but his presence will only improve this young Rockies’ pitching staff.  Juan Nicasio is coming back after a horrific injury last season where he was hit by a line drive and fell with such force that he broke his neck.  But after an incredible rehab he came back and pitched well in the minors.  He’s expected to make the rotation.  Guillermo Moscoso was acquired from the A’s.  21 starts in Oakland last season saw an 8-10 record with a 3.38 ERA.  21 starts makes him a wily veteran on this pitching staff.  They’d love Drew Pomeranz, the main piece of the Ubaldo Jiminez trade, to step up and take the 5th spot in the rotation out of spring training.  Then they’d like him to pitch well enough to take over the number 2 spot in the rotation by the time Jorge De La Rosa returns from injury.  His numbers last season were subpar, but they think the reason for that was an appendectomy in August that sapped his velocity.  He’s wowed the Rockies’ coaching staff this offseason with his stuff.  Other possible pitchers for the Rockies include the other major piece of the Ubaldo trade, Alex White and the oldest player in the majors:  Jamie Moyer.  Moyer, 49, was signed to a minor league deal and is an insurance policy for Colorado.  If the Rockies had their pick, I’m sure there staff would be:  Chacin, Pomeranz, De La Rosa, White and Moscoso.  But the others (Hammel, Moyer and Nicasio) are all there for support and insurance.  The ability of these guys to pitch effectively will decide how far the Rockies go.  Their bullpen looks okay with youngsters Esmil Rogers and Josh Outman (who are also in the mix for the starting rotation) and veterans Matt Belisle and Matt Lindstrom. (Also Matt Reynolds to give them three Matts in the bullpen…that will probably be important).  Those guys will pave the way for closer Rafael Betancourt, who took over the Save duties for Huston Street.  While he’s a bit older than your average closer (36), he converted 8 of 9 Save opportunities last season, strikes out a ton of guys, gave up a mere 7 hits in his relief opportunities after the break and never walks anyone.  If Colorado can make it to him, they should be solid most of the time.

2012 Outlook…The Rockies are banking on a fantastic offense protecting a young, unproven pitching staff as they find their way next season.  While they have the best hitters park in baseball and got a lineup to take advantage of it, pitching wins championships and they have to play half their games on the road, where they’ve been awful on both sides of the ball.  They will outhit some opponents and slug their way to some victories.  But I don’t see them making the playoffs.  Arizona is really good.  The Dodgers and Padres have good young players, and the Giants have some phenomenal pitching. Only one team can win the division, and I don’t see any West teams claiming the Wild Card with so much talent in the East.  For all their improvements, I think this team will be at home when October rolls around.

Up next…Lost Angeles Dodgers.

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