Hot Stove: A rundown of each team in the offseason
and what they are looking to improve in 2012.
St. Louis Cardinals: Finishing
up the NL Central we move on to the defending World Series champs the St. Louis
Cardinals.
Projected Starting
Lineup:
1B Lance
Berkman
2B Skip
Schumaker
SS Rafael
Furcal
3B David
Freese
LF Matt
Holliday
CF Jon
Jay
RF Carlos
Beltran
C Yadier
Molina
Projected Starting
Rotation:
Chris Carpenter
Adam Wainwright
Jamie Garcia
Jake Westbrook
Kyle Lohse
Projected Batting
Order:
SS Rafael
Furcal
RF Carlos
Beltran
LF Matt
Holliday
1B Lance
Berkman
3B David
Freese
CF John
Jay
C Yadier
Molina
2B Skip
Schumaker
Things worked out for the 2011 Cardinals. I don’t know if you heard, but they won
some sort of championship. However
their offseason was rather tumultuous as they rode from a World Series high to
an all time, fan-crushing low, when the face of the franchise, Albert Pujols,
signed with the Angels. Pujols has
been the best hitter in baseball for the past 10 years, and has performed
exceptionally ever since he first broke into the league with the Cards. They knew there was a good chance they
wouldn’t re-sign him and will have a lot to deal with trying to replace his
production. However think they can
get it done this season as they will get back 2010 ace Adam Wainwright, who
missed all of last season to Tommy John surgery, and they’ve signed Carlos
Beltran to help as well. They
already had power hitter Matt Holliday on the roster, and last year’s Comeback
Player of the Year winner Lance Berkman as well. They hope those two guys, a strong pitching staff, and some
healthy young players will grow together to keep them competing as they seek a
return to the World Series. The
other big piece of news is that the Cards lost long time manager Tony La Russa. La Russa is headed to the Hall of
Fame. They’ve replaced him with
former Cardinals catcher Mike Matheny who has big shoes to fill in his first
season. We’ll see how he handles
things.
Last season Pujols led the Cardinals’ offense (surprise,
surprise). But he actually had a
down year (for him anyway). He
still led the team in HR and RBI (37 and 99), but wasn’t his usual MVP
self. Longtime catcher Yadier
Molina led the team in AVG hitting 305.
One of the best catchers in the NL, Molina is probably the best
defensive catcher in baseball and is much younger than most people realize at
29. In addition to his sparkling
AVG, he contributed 14 HR and 65 RBI to the Cardinals World Series season. The other new leader on this team is Lance
Berkman. Berkman shocked the world
last season, hitting 301 with 34 HR, 94 RBI and 90 R. It was a phenomenal achievement for someone who was
considered almost done after the 2010 season. It’ll be hard for him to continue that sort of production,
especially since he’s getting up there in age. But if he can come close, the Cards will have a good chance
to return to the playoffs. Another
major star on this team is Matt Holliday.
He was the original Pujols insurance policy, but injuries have limited him
the last couple of years. Last
season he only played in 124 games.
But when he played, he played well hitting 296 with 22 HR, 75 RBI and 80
R. The speed is pretty much gone
(he used to be good for about 10-15 steals a year), but you really are paying
for his power. Those are the big 3
who need to keep this team afloat with the loss of Pujols. But they aren’t alone. David Freese has missed tons of time
since his call up and can’t seem to stay healthy. He played in only 97 games last season. But they were good games as he hit 297
with 10 HR and 55 RBI. And his
postseason heroics were well chronicled.
He hopes to ride that hot streak into the 2012 season. They think he will be a star in St.
Louis. I’ve seen some people
projecting 40 HRs and 110 RBI. I
don’t think it will be that much.
But 25 and 80 isn’t out of the question. I think he will be the most important piece of next
season. It’s not hard to believe
that Molina and Berkman both over-performed last season and will be hard
pressed to deliver repeat performances.
But Freese is capable of playing to his potential if he can stay
healthy. If he does, than this
team is almost certainly headed back to the playoffs. They will return up the middle with Rafael Furcal and Skip
Schumaker. Schumaker is
essentially a really good utility man with the ability to play everyday. Furcal is getting up there in age and
has lost most of his wheels. His
offense was abysmal last season after going to St. Louis but his defense was
still sharp. They’d like him to
lead off next year, and if he can make good contact and get on base a decent
amount of time, then he should score plenty of runs with those mashers behind
him. Jon Jay had a strong season
and led the team in games in 2011.
He played some center and some left when Holliday was hurt. But after they traded Colby Rasmus he
got the full time job in center field and turned in a season of 297-10-37-56-6. He has the ability to lead off if
Furcal struggles. But without much
speed they like him lower in the lineup to help drive in runs. And that brings us to their major
acquisition, Carlos Beltran.
Beltran proved that he could still play on those knees. He moved to right field and hit 300
with 22 HR, 84 RBI and 78 R. His
speed is gone (4 SB) but he’s still got a good eye and plenty of pop. A switch hitter with good contact, he’s
slotted to hit second in the lineup to move Furcal or Jay around, and hopefully
come around to score some himself.
He’s got enough power to drive in the leadoff guy and enough contact to
get on base. If he can have
another strong season, I think you have to consider this team a playoff
contender.
The other major reason this team will contend next year is
their pitching staff. There were
concerns with them losing their ace in spring training. But Chris Carpenter hasn’t worn down
with age. And Jamie Garcia and
Kyle Lohse were tremendous surprises last year. Lohse had a career year last season, his 10th in
the majors. He’s had strong
seasons before winning 13 and 14 games in 2002-2003 with the Twins and a 15 Win
campaign in 08 with the Cards. But
he set a career low with a 3.39 ERA, which was good enough to lead the
team. He also had 14 Wins and a
1.17 WHIP. Chris Carpenter
continued his strong work, leading the team with 237 IP. His 11-9 record belied his other strong
numbers, including a 3.45 ERA and a team leading 191 Ks. His BAA was higher than he would have
liked (264) and he gave up over 1 hit an inning. But his second half was better than his first, and he played
well in the playoffs. He’s been
the ace of this staff for years, until Wainwright overshadowed him in
2010. But he stepped back up to
lead the staff last year, and continues to pitch like a number 1 starter. Jake Westbrook’s first full season in
St. Louis was solid, as he posted a 12-9 record and logged over 180
innings. The groundball specialist
didn’t put up spectacular numbers (4.66 ERA, 290 BAA) but got the job
done. They’d still like to see him
miss a few more bats (104 Ks) and he needs to lower that ERA or else he won’t
have 12 Wins again. But he’s
dependable, consistent and keeps the Cards in games that their fantastic offense
can win. Surprise number 2 last year
came in the form of Jamie Garcia. Garcia
was the 4th Cardinals pitcher to record 30 starts in what became an
incredibly healthy starting rotation after Adam Wainwright was lost in spring
training. Garcia was arguably the
second best pitcher in the Card’s rotation last season, going 13-7 with a 3.56
ERA in 194 IP. He was second on
the team with 156 Ks and had 2 shutouts.
His numbers were good, but he seemed to have a lot of luck on his side,
with a BAA of 273 and giving up over 200 hits in his 194 innings. 4 of their starters gave them over 30
starts. But they did have 5
different guys come out and play the 5th starter role. The two with the most starts were Kyle
McClellan (17 starts) and Edwin Jackson (12 starts). McClellan pitched admirably in his starts going 12-7. He had some luck on his side with a
4.19 ERA and a 260 BAA. But he
gave them 143 quality innings as a 5th starter. Edwin Jackson was acquired midway
through the season from the White Sox.
He arrived in St. Louis and went 5-2 in his 12 starts, with a 3.58
ERA. Overall, including his time
in Chicago, he went 12-9 (seeing a lot of that record) with a 3.79 ERA. They were solid numbers, and good
enough to help St. Louis make it to the World Series and, ultimately, win it. That solid starting pitching was
important on a team that had some bullpen issues, including seeing 8 different
pitchers record Saves. It started
with the disastrous Ryan Franklin, included former closers Jason Motte and
Octavio Dotel, and ended up being the most successful with Fernando Salas who
got 24 Saves. Motte was second on
the team with 9 Saves and looks to get the first look at closer in 2012. But with Carpernter, Garcia and Lohse
set to come back, and Wainwright returning from Tommy John surgery, this team
again looks to be set up strong in the starting category. McClellan will be the
long reliever/insurance starter in the bullpen. Motte will close with Salas setting him up. And with J.C. Romero, Mitchell Boggs,
and Marc Rzepcyznski in the bullpen, the Cards look to be pretty solid on the
mound in 2012.
2012 Prediction…The Cardinals lost a major presence in
Albert Pujols. He can’t be
replaced. They also lost a Hall of
Fame manager in Tony La Russa. But
this is a great franchise. John Mozeliak
has put together a great team.
Holliday, Berkman, Beltran, Molina and Freese have the stuff to be All
Stars offensively. And Carpenter
and Wainwright are All Stars on the mound. And with solid pitching behind those two aces, the Cardinals
should be in every game this season.
The Brewers won the division last year and the Cardinals snuck into the
playoffs on the last day. But they
won it all and are riding high. I
expect them to contend with the Brewers and Reds for the NL Central crown, and
also be in the mix for the wildcard.
There are lots of good teams in the East and Central this season, and
the Cardinals will be one of the ones in the mix for the playoffs.
Up next…Arizona Diamondbacks.
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