Wednesday, February 8, 2012


Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

St. Louis Cardinals:                        Finishing up the NL Central we move on to the defending World Series champs the St. Louis Cardinals.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Lance Berkman
2B            Skip Schumaker
SS            Rafael Furcal
3B            David Freese
LF            Matt Holliday
CF            Jon Jay
RF            Carlos Beltran
C            Yadier Molina

Projected Starting Rotation:

Chris Carpenter
Adam Wainwright
Jamie Garcia
Jake Westbrook
Kyle Lohse

Projected Batting Order:

SS            Rafael Furcal
RF            Carlos Beltran
LF            Matt Holliday
1B            Lance Berkman
3B            David Freese
CF            John Jay
C            Yadier Molina
2B            Skip Schumaker

Things worked out for the 2011 Cardinals.  I don’t know if you heard, but they won some sort of championship.  However their offseason was rather tumultuous as they rode from a World Series high to an all time, fan-crushing low, when the face of the franchise, Albert Pujols, signed with the Angels.  Pujols has been the best hitter in baseball for the past 10 years, and has performed exceptionally ever since he first broke into the league with the Cards.  They knew there was a good chance they wouldn’t re-sign him and will have a lot to deal with trying to replace his production.  However think they can get it done this season as they will get back 2010 ace Adam Wainwright, who missed all of last season to Tommy John surgery, and they’ve signed Carlos Beltran to help as well.  They already had power hitter Matt Holliday on the roster, and last year’s Comeback Player of the Year winner Lance Berkman as well.  They hope those two guys, a strong pitching staff, and some healthy young players will grow together to keep them competing as they seek a return to the World Series.  The other big piece of news is that the Cards lost long time manager Tony La Russa.  La Russa is headed to the Hall of Fame.  They’ve replaced him with former Cardinals catcher Mike Matheny who has big shoes to fill in his first season.  We’ll see how he handles things.

Last season Pujols led the Cardinals’ offense (surprise, surprise).  But he actually had a down year (for him anyway).  He still led the team in HR and RBI (37 and 99), but wasn’t his usual MVP self.  Longtime catcher Yadier Molina led the team in AVG hitting 305.  One of the best catchers in the NL, Molina is probably the best defensive catcher in baseball and is much younger than most people realize at 29.  In addition to his sparkling AVG, he contributed 14 HR and 65 RBI to the Cardinals World Series season.  The other new leader on this team is Lance Berkman.  Berkman shocked the world last season, hitting 301 with 34 HR, 94 RBI and 90 R.  It was a phenomenal achievement for someone who was considered almost done after the 2010 season.  It’ll be hard for him to continue that sort of production, especially since he’s getting up there in age.  But if he can come close, the Cards will have a good chance to return to the playoffs.  Another major star on this team is Matt Holliday.  He was the original Pujols insurance policy, but injuries have limited him the last couple of years.  Last season he only played in 124 games.  But when he played, he played well hitting 296 with 22 HR, 75 RBI and 80 R.  The speed is pretty much gone (he used to be good for about 10-15 steals a year), but you really are paying for his power.  Those are the big 3 who need to keep this team afloat with the loss of Pujols.  But they aren’t alone.  David Freese has missed tons of time since his call up and can’t seem to stay healthy.  He played in only 97 games last season.  But they were good games as he hit 297 with 10 HR and 55 RBI.  And his postseason heroics were well chronicled.  He hopes to ride that hot streak into the 2012 season.  They think he will be a star in St. Louis.  I’ve seen some people projecting 40 HRs and 110 RBI.  I don’t think it will be that much.  But 25 and 80 isn’t out of the question.  I think he will be the most important piece of next season.  It’s not hard to believe that Molina and Berkman both over-performed last season and will be hard pressed to deliver repeat performances.  But Freese is capable of playing to his potential if he can stay healthy.  If he does, than this team is almost certainly headed back to the playoffs.  They will return up the middle with Rafael Furcal and Skip Schumaker.  Schumaker is essentially a really good utility man with the ability to play everyday.  Furcal is getting up there in age and has lost most of his wheels.  His offense was abysmal last season after going to St. Louis but his defense was still sharp.  They’d like him to lead off next year, and if he can make good contact and get on base a decent amount of time, then he should score plenty of runs with those mashers behind him.  Jon Jay had a strong season and led the team in games in 2011.  He played some center and some left when Holliday was hurt.  But after they traded Colby Rasmus he got the full time job in center field and turned in a season of 297-10-37-56-6.  He has the ability to lead off if Furcal struggles.  But without much speed they like him lower in the lineup to help drive in runs.  And that brings us to their major acquisition, Carlos Beltran.  Beltran proved that he could still play on those knees.  He moved to right field and hit 300 with 22 HR, 84 RBI and 78 R.  His speed is gone (4 SB) but he’s still got a good eye and plenty of pop.  A switch hitter with good contact, he’s slotted to hit second in the lineup to move Furcal or Jay around, and hopefully come around to score some himself.  He’s got enough power to drive in the leadoff guy and enough contact to get on base.  If he can have another strong season, I think you have to consider this team a playoff contender.

The other major reason this team will contend next year is their pitching staff.  There were concerns with them losing their ace in spring training.  But Chris Carpenter hasn’t worn down with age.  And Jamie Garcia and Kyle Lohse were tremendous surprises last year.  Lohse had a career year last season, his 10th in the majors.  He’s had strong seasons before winning 13 and 14 games in 2002-2003 with the Twins and a 15 Win campaign in 08 with the Cards.  But he set a career low with a 3.39 ERA, which was good enough to lead the team.  He also had 14 Wins and a 1.17 WHIP.  Chris Carpenter continued his strong work, leading the team with 237 IP.  His 11-9 record belied his other strong numbers, including a 3.45 ERA and a team leading 191 Ks.  His BAA was higher than he would have liked (264) and he gave up over 1 hit an inning.  But his second half was better than his first, and he played well in the playoffs.  He’s been the ace of this staff for years, until Wainwright overshadowed him in 2010.  But he stepped back up to lead the staff last year, and continues to pitch like a number 1 starter.  Jake Westbrook’s first full season in St. Louis was solid, as he posted a 12-9 record and logged over 180 innings.  The groundball specialist didn’t put up spectacular numbers (4.66 ERA, 290 BAA) but got the job done.  They’d still like to see him miss a few more bats (104 Ks) and he needs to lower that ERA or else he won’t have 12 Wins again.  But he’s dependable, consistent and keeps the Cards in games that their fantastic offense can win.  Surprise number 2 last year came in the form of Jamie Garcia.  Garcia was the 4th Cardinals pitcher to record 30 starts in what became an incredibly healthy starting rotation after Adam Wainwright was lost in spring training.  Garcia was arguably the second best pitcher in the Card’s rotation last season, going 13-7 with a 3.56 ERA in 194 IP.  He was second on the team with 156 Ks and had 2 shutouts.  His numbers were good, but he seemed to have a lot of luck on his side, with a BAA of 273 and giving up over 200 hits in his 194 innings.  4 of their starters gave them over 30 starts.  But they did have 5 different guys come out and play the 5th starter role.  The two with the most starts were Kyle McClellan (17 starts) and Edwin Jackson (12 starts).  McClellan pitched admirably in his starts going 12-7.  He had some luck on his side with a 4.19 ERA and a 260 BAA.  But he gave them 143 quality innings as a 5th starter.  Edwin Jackson was acquired midway through the season from the White Sox.  He arrived in St. Louis and went 5-2 in his 12 starts, with a 3.58 ERA.  Overall, including his time in Chicago, he went 12-9 (seeing a lot of that record) with a 3.79 ERA.  They were solid numbers, and good enough to help St. Louis make it to the World Series and, ultimately, win it.  That solid starting pitching was important on a team that had some bullpen issues, including seeing 8 different pitchers record Saves.  It started with the disastrous Ryan Franklin, included former closers Jason Motte and Octavio Dotel, and ended up being the most successful with Fernando Salas who got 24 Saves.  Motte was second on the team with 9 Saves and looks to get the first look at closer in 2012.  But with Carpernter, Garcia and Lohse set to come back, and Wainwright returning from Tommy John surgery, this team again looks to be set up strong in the starting category. McClellan will be the long reliever/insurance starter in the bullpen.  Motte will close with Salas setting him up.  And with J.C. Romero, Mitchell Boggs, and Marc Rzepcyznski in the bullpen, the Cards look to be pretty solid on the mound in 2012.

2012 Prediction…The Cardinals lost a major presence in Albert Pujols.  He can’t be replaced.  They also lost a Hall of Fame manager in Tony La Russa.  But this is a great franchise.  John Mozeliak has put together a great team.  Holliday, Berkman, Beltran, Molina and Freese have the stuff to be All Stars offensively.  And Carpenter and Wainwright are All Stars on the mound.  And with solid pitching behind those two aces, the Cardinals should be in every game this season.  The Brewers won the division last year and the Cardinals snuck into the playoffs on the last day.  But they won it all and are riding high.  I expect them to contend with the Brewers and Reds for the NL Central crown, and also be in the mix for the wildcard.  There are lots of good teams in the East and Central this season, and the Cardinals will be one of the ones in the mix for the playoffs.      

Up next…Arizona Diamondbacks.

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