Arizona Diamondbacks 2014 Team Breakdown

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS: 81-81 (Second in NL West)

Projected Starting Lineup/Batting Order:

RF        Gerardo Parra

3B       Martin Prado

1B       Paul Goldschmidt

2B       Aaron Hill

LF        Mark Trumbo

C          Miguel Montero

CF        A.J Pollock

SS        Chris Owings

Projected Starting Rotation/Key Bullpen Arms:

SP        Trevor Cahill

SP        Brandon McCarthy

SP        Wade Miley

SP        Bronson Arroyo

SP        Archie Bradley          

RP       Addison Reed

RP       J.J. Putz

RP       Brad Zeigler

The Diamondbacks started the 2013 season hot, but slowed down as the summer wore on.  They benefitted from the struggles LA had early on, but eventually the Dodgers caught fire and blazed past them.  They didn’t help things by falling apart in the second half.  They ended up staying in second place in the division, but they were only a 500 team and missed the playoffs by a healthy margin.  Kirk Gibson and Kevin Towers have their fingerprints all over this team, which has underachieved for two straight years.  There was a belief that if this team didn’t make the playoffs, then the seats under those two would begin to get quite warm.  But with the slow start Arizona had many believe the heating of those seats has already begun with the recent hire of Tony LaRussa as CEO of Baseball Operations.  Some don’t like the move, some do.  But all agree that it’s the precursor to a change, a change that may see Towers and Gibson looking for a new gig.

The offense looks to be in pretty good shape.  Gerardo Parra finally got the everyday gig in the Arizona outfield last year after breaking in with the big club in 2009 and playing in no fewer than 120 games.  He was an excellent fourth outfielder with a career 277 AVG and some Gold Gloves to his credit.  Last year he got the full time job playing mainly right field and hit 268 with 10 HR and 10 SB.  His 323 OBP is ok but generally not good enough to leadoff regularly.  He’s got speed, though he’s not exceptional at stealing bases and he scored 79 R last year.  They hope he can pull that AVG up closer to his career mark and get on base a little closer to a 350 clip.  And if he can turn those 10 SB into 15, perhaps we have a guy who can score 100 R.  Maybe slug another 10 HR too.  But mainly he’ll play great defense in right.  The Diamondbacks like having him hit at the bottom of the lineup, but I think that’s a waste of his speed.  And while Pollock was the first choice to leadoff, Parra has taken over and I think he’ll stay there this year.   

Martin Prado will settle in as the starter at third and probably hit second.  He can play all over the field, but has become their full time third baseman.  He hit 282 last year with 14 HR, 82 RBI and 70 R.  That’s right on part with what he does, though the AVG is a little lower and his SB disappeared from 2012 (though that was an aberration….he stole almost half his career total in that one year).  He may get back over 300 this season, but if not will be right around it with perhaps 15 HR in Arizona (ceiling).  He’s not overly exciting, but does a lot of things well, can get on base and both score and drive in R. 

As is traditional, the Diamondbacks best hitter will be in the 3 hole.  That will be first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.  My pick for MVP last year, Goldschmidt won 2/3 of a Triple Crown in the NL with a league leading 36 HR and 125 RBI.  He also added 103 R, 15 SB and a 302 AVG.  His AVG and OBP has improved each season in his 3 major league seasons, and he’s got great power in a great hitters park.  He also played in 160 games last year and provides speed at first, a rarity for the position.  He’s an absolute star, and I’d expect another season around 300 with 30+ HR, 110+ RBI, 90+ R and 10+ SB.  He’s a 5 tool contributor (won a Gold Glove too) who is an absolute star in my book.  He should also have an MVP at this point, but short-sighted writers only give those to playoff teams, despite hitters on other teams having better numbers in this, the ultimate team sport.

I have second baseman Aaron Hill hitting cleanup in this lineup.  He’s not the most powerful on the team, but has the most complete skill set after Goldschmidt.  Last year was marred by injuries (87 games) but he still hit 291 when healthy with 11 HR and 41 RBI.  Over a full year that’s a 22 HR and 82 RBI mark.  In 2012, he hit 302 with 26 HR and 85 RBI, not to mention 14 SB.  I think if healthy, he can be a force, but we may see some regression.  Think 20 HR and 80 RBI to go with 10 SB max.  And expect an AVG closer to 275 (career 273 hitter). 

New addition Mark Trumbo will probably hit 5^th.  He’s a true slugger, with the most power on the team.  He hit 34 HR, driving in 100 in Anaheim last year.  But that came with 235 AVG.  However, putting him 5^th and saying “Just hit it deep” will unleash that power with no reservations.  It’s a good spot for a guy who can be a huge help.  His 34 HR led to the 100 RBI and 85 R, despite the low average.  He’ll strike out a ton and his defense in left may not be great, but he does one thing well, and that’s all they want him to do.  After a blistering start, Trumbo was lost to an injury.  Cody Ross is filling in admirably in left, but while the defense is better, there is not question they miss Trumbo’s power.

I put catcher Miguel Montero 6^th, after a down season.  Injuries limited him to 116 games, but when he played he struggled losing 56 points off his AVG.  His HR total has dropped 3 straight years as well, though the limited games were part of it.  I think he can bounce back, but I don’t know if he’s an All Star anymore.  Think 260 with 12 HR. 

The SS position is next and I gave it to Chris Owings.  But he’s got to perform to hold off Didi Gregorious, the high ranked prospect.  Gregorious played in 103 games with Arizona hitting 252 with 7 HR and 0 SB.  It wasn’t great, and to Owings credit he won the job away.  Owings only played in 20 games last year, but hit 291 with 2 SB, a 361 OBP and 5 R.  Owings has had the better spring and he’s the one in the lineup. 

I initially put A.J. Pollock in the leadoff spot, but he hasn’t gotten to play there much.  He hit 269 with 8 HR and 12 SB in 137 games last year.  He’s got an interesting speed/power combo, but I don’t think his AVG or eye is what they want from their leadoff man.  His numbers are similar to Parra, but Parra has more experience.  However, with the injury to Trumbo, Pollock has found himself moving up in the lineup, even hitting 5^th occasionally.  He struggled a little bit to start this year, and almost became the fourth outfielder.  But he’s fought to hold on to his spot, and got a chance to leadoff again recently.  They want him to take the leadoff job, but he has to earn it.  And even if he does, he’s got enough pop that they may hold him lower in the lineup to maximize his RBI potential with Trumbo out. 

I mentioned Cody Ross (278/8 HR) as a talented fourth outfielder who can do a lot of things well and seems to thrive in pressure situations.  He’s starting now with Trumbo hurt.  Eric Chavez (281/9 HR) is still around and Cliff Pennington can play both middle infield spots and swipe a bag as a pinch runner.  This offense is loaded and has lots of options.

The defense in Arizona is in good shape.  There are 2 Gold Glovers in the field.  One at first (Goldschmidt) and one in right (Parra).  So the right side is in good shape.  Prado is great at third and no matter who plays short, the defense will be fine there.  Hill is a good second baseman and Montero is solid behind the plate.  Trumbo is pretty bad in left, but with Parra’s skill in right, Pollock can cheat to left to make up for any deficiencies by Trumbo.  And he can be replaced for defensive reasons late in games.  It’s not the best setup, but 2 Gold Glovers is a good place to start.

The pitching doesn’t look to be in as good shape as the offense.  Patrick Corbin was their ace, but has been lost to Tommy John.  That means Arizona’s ace may be Brandon McCarthy now who is not ace quality.  He went 5-11 last year with a 4.53 ERA in 22 starts.  He’s had injury issues, though a lot of those were freak injuries.  He’s been successful in the past, but his first season out of Oakland and in Arizona was, unsurprisingly, not quite as good (Oakland=Great pitchers park….Arizona=Great hitters park).  He’s got potential and if he can harness his talent he could be a double-digit game winner with an ERA south of 4.  He’s not a big strikeout guy and those aren’t the numbers you expect from an ace, but that would be a successful season from McCarthy.  So would 200 IP. 

The other returning pieces to the rotation are Wade Miley and Trevor Cahill.  Cahill is another former Oakland A, who hasn’t pitched as well after leaving the pitcher friendly confines of O.Co Coliseum.  However his last season in Oakland wasn’t as good the past two years in Arizona, and he’s got more of a horse reputation, notching around 200 IP the last three years, until last year.  Injuries limited him to 25 starts, but he was solid with a 3.99 ERA and 8-10 record.  He’s not a Cy Young winner, but with their potentially limited rotation, they just need another 200 IP season with an ERA south of 4.  Cahill seems a good bet to deliver that. 

Miley pitched in his second season for Arizona last year and turned in a similar season to his strong rookie campaign.  His ERA swelled by 22 points and his WHIP and BAA also rose a bit.  The issue was walks last year, which is something he has to correct.  It’s what turned his 16-11 freshman year into a 10-10 sophomore year.  He’s not a strikeout guy.  If he can trim the walks, we’ll see another 200 IP season of 3.50 or better ERA ball and possibly 15 Wins.  He’s also got ace potential, albeit ace of this team, not others. 

Free agent veteran Bronson Arroyo was the Diamondbacks biggest signing this offseason.  He’s extremely important now that Corbin is out.  Arroyo went 14-12 last season with a 3.79 ERA in Cincinnati.  Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark is one of the few parks that is actually a better hitter’s park than Chase Field so you don’t worry about Arroyo’s numbers going in a bad direction.  The real concern is the sore back that has kept him from pitching all spring.  He’s an extremely durable starter that has never missed a start due to injury in his long career.  I know he’ll get healthy, but he may not be ready to start the season.  When he does get healthy though, expect 200 IP of sub 4 ERA baseball with few Ks and around 12 Wins. 

The hope was that Archie Bradley would step in to take the 5^th starter spot with Corbin gone.  But the Diamondbacks are taking it easy with him and letting Josh Collmenter get some time in starting.  He’s a career spot starter who’s had better success than people realize (3.47 career ERA) in his time.  Randall Delgado is another young arm, part of the Justin Upton trade who can help out if needed.

The bullpen got a major overhaul with a trade for Addison Reed to be the new closer in the desert.  Reed notched 40 Saves for the White Sox last year to the tune of a 3.79 ERA.  That’s actually not a great ERA at all for a closer, but his WHIP and BAA were great and he struck out better than a batter an inning.  If he can give up fewer hits, things will improve, but he’s got experience closing and had success in another hitter’s park in U.S. Cellular Field, which leads Arizona to believe he’ll be fine in Arizona.  To support him, they have former All Star closer J.J Putz, last year’s second half closer David Hernandez and situational stars Oliver Perez and Brad Zeigler.  The bullpen looks strong, but may have to pick up some slack with the starting rotation in limbo.  And thus far, the bullpen has dealt with numerous injuries so that has held the team back to start the season.

Outlook/Prediction:

The outlook for Arizona has shifted.  I thought they would be very good this year.  Then they had a terrible April.  The team made changes and brought in LaRussa, but since the calendar turned to May they’ve had the third best winning percentage in baseball.  So perhaps they just needed to get their legs under them.  They have a young superstar at first, two young players fighting for playing time at short, youngsters in left and center and at least 2 young starters in the rotation, potentially more if Archie Bradley makes the team.  Their closer is young.  That’s a good future.  And their veterans aren’t that old.  Prado is in his prime.  Parra is as well.  McCarthy and Cahill are prime players too.  So this is a good mix for the team this year.  Their future is in good shape, but so is their present.  However, the thought in Arizona is that both the future and present could be better.  Towers has traded away a lot of talent in the last few years.  The most recent dump was Adam Eaton and Trevor Bauer for Addison Reed and Trumbo.  Trumbo got hurt and Reed has struggled.  Before that, they dumped Justin Upton and Chris Johnson, both of whom have played well in Atlanta.  It’s hard to know what direction they are headed in, and perhaps that’s worse than even going in the wrong direction.  It’s okay to re-build if you admit to doing it. It’s okay to contend, for obvious reasons.  The real crime is being stuck in the middle, and many think that’s where the Diamondbacks are languishing.

This division is tough.  The Dodgers are good.  The Giants should be better.  And the Rockies are the surprise of this 2014 season so far.  The Diamondbacks have underachieved for back-to-back seasons.  This is the year they have to get it done.  Winning the division is possible, but a lot to ask for.  A playoff spot is a more attainable goal.  But that’s not certain either with the Giants expected to be better and at least 3 great teams in the central and 2 in the East.  They have the talent, but have to play as well as they should.  They haven’t done that the past 2 years.  If they harness their talent, I’d expect a potential wildcard slot with the weak teams at the bottom of their division.  If that doesn’t happen, expect some changes in Arizona.

Texas Rangers 2014 Team Breakdown

TEXAS RANGERS:    91-72 (Second Place in the AL West)

Projected Starting Lineup:

LF        Shin Soo Choo

SS        Elvis Andrus

1B       Prince Fielder

3B       Adrian Beltre

RF        Alex Rios

DH       Mitch Moreland

C          Geovany Soto

CF        Leonys Martin

2B       Jurickson Profar

Projected Starting Rotation/Key Bullpen Arms:

SP        Yu Darvish

SP        Derek Holland

SP        Matt Harrison

SP        Martin Perez

SP        Tanner Scheppers

RP       Joakim Soria

RP       Neftali Feliz

RP       Alexi Ogando

The Texas Rangers had a disappointing year last season.  They won 91 games, but didn’t make the playoffs with the A’s winning the division for a second straight year and Tampa Bay and Cleveland both winning 92 games.  So they were the best team in baseball that didn’t make an appearance in October.  They wanted to fix that, so made some serious changes this offseason.  The made a major trade to bring in Prince Fielder to take over at first and added Shin Soo Choo in free agency.  With this offense looking potent and their pitching strong again, this team looks like it will make some serious noise in baseball’s best division. 

They get started right away with Shin Soo Choo leading off and playing left.  He was exceptional in that role last year with the Reds.  After spending the majority of his career hitting in the middle of the Cleveland order, the Reds looked at his OBP numbers and speed and decided that he’d be a great leadoff guy.  They were right.  He hit 285 with an NL best 423 OBP.  He swiped 20 bags and scored 107 R, while still showing his power with 21 HR.  I expect hit to have similar success in Texas with another 280+ season and OBP close to 400.  He should score over 100 runs again sitting atop a strong lineup in Texas and 20 HR is still in reach.  He will be great leading off, and moving to left field will help his defense a bit.  He’s a natural right fielder so left won’t be an issue.  His defense in center was not good in the Queens City last year.  Elvis Andrus will bat second and play short again for Texas.  His 271 AVG was a bit down for him, but pretty close to his career mark.  And he still scored 91 R and swiped 41 bags as the fastest player on the team.  His defense was excellent as well.  I’d expect more of the same assuming full health.  While I personally would put Prince Fielder in the cleanup hole, manager Ron Washington has said that he’ll bat him third.  He’ll be a great addition in Texas and will finally be that first base threat they have lacked since Mark Teixeira’s departure.  He hit 279 last year with 25 HR and 106 RBI.  And that was one of his worst seasons.  I think that a move to Texas will see that HR total climb north of 30 again, though I don’t put 40 out of reach.  If he accepts that he doesn’t have to hit 300 and focuses on slugging, another season of 270+ with over 100 RBI is easily in his grasp and perhaps a return to the 40 HR territory.  Beltre will be the cleanup man according to Washington, though I think he’s the better 3 option.  It’s not just about Beltre being more likely to hit 300, it’s the fact that Beltre and Rios are righties and Fielder is a lefty.  Why not break them up?  Washington says that they are all good enough to hit both lefties and righties, which I don’t disagree with.  But since they can all hit in all three spots according to Washington, why not break up the righties?  And Beltre is better in the 3-hole.  But this offense will still be fine.   Beltre is still their best hitter, hitting 315 last year with 30 HR, 92 RBI and 88 R.  He’s had a career renaissance in his later years and you worry about time catching up with him.  But he’s been great since his move to Arlington, and you have to think his floor is at least All Star caliber.  Alex Rios will hit 5^th in this lineup after coming over from the White Sox at last year’s trade deadline.  And as is often the case with guys who were overpaid at some point, people don’t realize how great he’s been the last few years.  Without making any waves or being noticed, he’s put together some incredible seasons in Chicago and now Texas.  Between the two teams last year, he hit 278 with 18 HR, 81 RBI, 83 R and 26 SB.  Who knew?  I did but I pay more attention than most people.  That’s right what we expect from him as he’s a career 278 hitter with no fewer than 13 HR in a season (and in that season he only played in 145 games).  Spending a full year in Texas with that great lineup in front of him, he might top 20 HR and 100 RBI.  If not, another 275+ year with 15 HR, 90 RBI, 80 R and 15 SB is his floor, and we could see more across the board.  That’s the heart of the Ranger lineup, and it looks good.  Unlike most super teams, this offense drops off a bit after the number 5 man in the order.  But the rest of the lineup is still good with potential to be more than that.  And Texas is a super team because their top 5 are SO good and they have pitching to back them up.  But let’s look at the rest of the lineup.  Mitch Moreland will be the primary DH after being unable to lock down the first base job last year.  However he can play first, so in addition to DHing, he can let Fielder DH and fill in for him at first, let Rios DH and move to left (with Choo moving back to his natural right to fill in for Rios).  And obviously his move to left can also spell a day at DH for Choo.  So while he isn’t the most frightening DH to behold, his ability to play the field and give others a day off is part of what makes him attractive.  And he’s not a bad hitter with 23 HR last year.  But that came with a 232 AVG and only 60 RBI.  So he is limited offensively.  Catcher Geovany Soto will follow hitting 7^th.  In 54 games last year he showed he’s still got something in the tank with a 245 AVG and 9 HR.  It wasn’t a ton, but he’s good defensively and can do a little something with the bat as well.  He’ll start behind the plate.  His back up will be J.P Arencibia from Toronto.  The Rangers signed him to back up Soto and be a right handed hitting DH option so Moreland doesn’t have to face left handed pitching.  We all know his limitations with the 194 AVG.  But he’s got a ton of power with 21 HR last year.  In Texas that could swell to 25 HR.  Not bad at all for a backup catcher.  Leonys Martin will hit 8^th, but could end up as a better hitter than that.  He hit 260 last year with 36 SB.  He’s a menace on the base paths, but hitting so low in the lineup limited him to only 66 R.  It’s great for a number 8 man though, and he will be a great option to get on base for the top of the order, which includes a leadoff man with 20+ HR power.  I’m putting Jurickson Profar 9^th to let him take it easy.  He’s got great potential but struggled last year moving around the diamond.  They hope playing a full year at second and not being counted on for much offensively will allow him to turn his potential into big league success.  This may not be the best offense in baseball, but it’s certainly one of the better ones.

Defensively this team seems to be in pretty good shape.  Fiedler isn’t great at first, but he’s not as bad as most people believe.  Up the middle the Rangers are in fantastic shape with the potential to win Gold Gloves with both Profar at second and Andrus at short.  Beltre is the best defensive third baseman in the game and the outfield is phenomenal.  Choo is a natural right fielder with center field experience.  He’s in left.  Martin plays Gold Glove caliber defense in center and Rios is great in right.  Soto is solid behind the plate, and Mitch Moreland plays left field just fine and first base better than Fielder.  So defense won’t be an issue in Arlington this year.

Starting pitching has started to steal the spotlight from the Rangers’ offense.  Yu Darvish was an absolute ace last year and he leads a host of talented young arms.  Darvish led all MLB with 277 Ks to go with a 13-9 record and 2.83 ERA.  As far as the pitching Triple Crown, Darvish won 2/3 of it with a better ERA and more Ks than Max Scherzer.  He threw 209 IP with a 1.07 WHIP and 194 BAA.  All the numbers were great.  He was one of the best pitchers in the game last year, and he could be a 20 game winner with 200+ IP, 250+ Ks and an ERA around 3.  This guy really is the epitome of an ace.  He started the year injured, but has come back already and is looking great.  After him, they have some young guys to fill in because Derek Holland hurt his knee badly and is on the 60 day DL.  He’ll be eligible to come off in late May, but who knows when he’ll be ready to pitch.  So the new number 2 man is probably Matt Harrison, who only made 2 starts due to injuries last year.  Those starts were pretty bad with 11 ER in 10.2 IP, but he blames a lot of that on the injury.  He did have 12 Ks in those 10.2 IP.  In 2012, he went 18-11 in 213 IP with a 3.29 ERA.  If he’s healthy, he’ll be their number 2 man and that’s what they want to see from him.   But he’s not healthy.  He hasn’t pitched yet this year, and likely won’t be back until mid-May.  The next most seasoned option for the Rangers has to be youngster Martin Perez, especially after his strong season last year.  He made 20 starts last year going 10-6 with a 3.62 ERA.  He puts runners on with a 1.34 WHIP and 267 BAA.  But the walks aren’t too bad and he did earn 84 Ks in 124 IP.  If he keeps putting people on base, then that ERA will swell to over 4, but he’s a young guy who could potentially get better.  They love his stuff, he’s working on a cutter and he had some success last year.  This guy will be a big part of the Rangers rotation going forward, and they hope he makes a big leap forward this year.  Derek Holland (10-9, 3.42, 189 Ks in 213 IP) will be back at some point.  He’s not an ace, but eats innings and keeps runs off the board, if not runners off the bases.  Tanner Scheppers had a strong spring and won a spot on the rotation, and actually the Opening Game start for Texas with all their pitching injrues.  Scheppers didn’t make any starts last year, but was great in relief with a 1.07 WHIP and 214 BAA. Robbie Ross wasn’t as good out of the pen, but still strong with a 4-2 record and 3.03 ERA in 62 IP.  The Rangers wanted Tommy Hanson to win a spot in the rotation but struggled so badly in the Spring after a bad year with LA that he was cut.  So the starting rotation is quite thin.  I though Alexi Ogando would move from the bullpen to the starting rotation, but they like him better in relief.  So the Rangers signed Joe Saunders to fill in for the injured Harrison and Holland.  The veteran was 11-16 in 32 starts with the Mariners last year.  But even in pitching friendly Seattle he had an ERA over 5, a WHIP of 1.60 and a BAA over 300.  All of those numbers are really bad.  But he can eat innings and has proven to be a reliable starter in the majors, so he’s starting in Texas.  Or he was. But he just went to the 15 day DL after being hit in the ankle with a comebacker on Friday.  So the hits just keep on coming.  That’s Harrison and Holland who haven’t made a start, Saunders who just went down and Darvish who missed a week to start the season.  Bad news for the Rangers thus far when it comes to starting pitching.  Robbie Ross was fighting with Tanner Scheppers for a spot in the rotation, but is now back as the 5^th starter.  He appeared in 65 games for Texas last year, but all in relief.  He turned in a 3.03 ERA with 58 Ks in 62 IP in that time, but put on way too many runners, both via the hit and the walk.  He’s got to keep that under control.  He had a nice spring and has looked good in his 2 starts this year, so that’s a positive.  But right now Texas is just treading water until their starters get healthy.  And they will rely a lot on the bullpen.  Luckily it looks good.  Alexi Ogando is a former starter and All Star reliever, and he’s back where he’s really great, in relief.  He’s got a fireball and some good movement.  Facing the lineup once, he’s nearly unhittablel.  Jason Frasor is another talented arm in the pen.  But the focus this year is on the closer.  Joe Nathan is gone.  Neftali Feliz is healthy and probably done trying to start.  Joakim Soria is healthy and ready to compete.  The fight was between the two of them to close, and Soria won it.  And he’s a good choice.  Since 2007, here are his Save/ERA splits:

17/2.48 (also 9 Holds as that was his rookie year with Kansas City)

42/1.60

30/2.21

43/1.78

28/4.03

That takes us through 2012, with that last season in 2012 being his worst.  He then played with the Rangers last year in a setup capacity.  He had 6 Holds in 26 games with a 3.80 ERA.  Feliz was bad this spring, and sent to the minors to work, but he’s waiting in the wings.  This bullpen may need him eventually as they will throw a lot of innings early on.  But hopefully Texas’ starters will get healthy fast and this team will be back to their winning ways.  But if Texas struggles this season, it will be due to their injured pitching staff.

Outlook/Prediction:

The Rangers look to be one of the best teams in baseball.  They also have a great mix of strong veterans and young potential.  Leonys Martin and Jurickson Profar are young talents in the field.  Martin Perez, Tanner Scheppers and Robbie Ross are young starters.  That bodes well for the future.  In addition, right now they have stars at first, third, short and in the corner outfield spots, not to mention an absolute ace atop their rotation.  Their pitching was strong last year.  Their hitters struggled a bit, but got upgraded with Fielder and Choo.  And they still have Rios, Beltre and Andrus.  I like those offensive upgrades.  But they have to muddle through their early pitching injuries.  If they do, I think they are the best team in this division.  If they struggle, Oakland will win again.  But I think once they get healthy, this team will make a run and win the division, and possibly 98 games.

Seattle Mariners 2014 Team Breakdown

SEATTLE MARINERS:  71-91 (4th Place in AL West)

Projected Lineup/Batting Order:

LF        Dustin Ackley

3B       Kyle Seager

2B       Robinson Cano

DH       Corey Hart

1B       Justin Smoak

CF        Michael Saunders

RF        Logan Morrison

C          Mike Zunino

SS        Brad Miller

Projected Starting Rotation/Key Bullpen Arms:

SP        Felix Hernandez

SP        Hisashi Iwakuma

SP        Taijuan Walker

SP        Erasmo Ramirez

SP        James Paxton

RP       Fernando Rodney

RP       Tom Wilhemsen

RP       Charlie Furbush

The Mariners were probably the least talked about team in the AL West last year.  The Rangers and A’s were good.  The Angels were disappointing.  And the Astros were terrible.  That left limited column inches for a 71 win team that plays in the Pacific Northwest.  But the Mariners then went out to make a splash this offseason with their signing of Robinson Cano to a 10 year $240 million dollar deal.  With a respectable number 3 hitter on this club, the Mariners hope their ancillary pieces can finally settle into their roles on this team and play within themselves.  And the hope is that those players, teamed with a superstar, will be enough for Seattle to make it to the postseason.

This team was offensively challenged again last season, as it has been for roughly the last 5 years.  Their leading hitter was Kendrys Morales, who played some first and some DH for them and is on the free agent market looking for a job.  He hit 277 with a team leading 23 HR and 80 RBI.  When a guy leads the team in all three categories, you want those numbers to be higher.  Smoak will be at first and either Corey Hart or Logan Morrison, two other new additions will DH and play right field.  You can’t put them both in the field though, because that would mean Dustin Ackley would go to the bench, or move to center where his weak arm is a liability.  That would also mean that Michael Saunders, really the only guy who can play center for this team, would go to the bench.  As far as the Morrison/Hart discussion goes, Hart is the better fielder, but is coming off knee issues, and played first more recently.  I put Morrison in right for now, but if Hart is healthy expect him to play the field more with Morrison in as the DH.  Both of these guys are being relied upon to provide protection for Cano.  Hart missed all of last season with an injury but hit 270 in 2012 with 30 HR.  The years before were 285 with 26 HR and 283 with 31 HR.  So we know what he used to do consistently.  The Mariners hope he won’t miss a beat getting back to action.  But he is a bit of a wildcard.  Morrision is arguably a bigger wildcard.  He only appeared in 85 games last year with a 242 AVG and 6 HR.  He’s never topped 123 games in a season, but that year he did was his best with 23 HR.  That’s the hitter Seattle hoped they got, but as a career 249 hitter, power is about the only thing he potentially brings to the table.  And even that’s unsure. The Mariners had to do something though.  Without those 2, the only protection for Cano would be Justin Smoak.  Smoak had another Smoak-like season.  His AVG is abysmal (238 last season) but he showed prodigious power (20 HR in 131 games).  The past 3 years he’s logged 120+ games with an AVG south of 240 and 15+ HR.  That’s fine for a 7 hitter perhaps.  But they need him to do more.  He’s not a cleanup guy with that AVG, but at this point that may be the only kind of player he knows how to be.  He’s the starting first baseman if he performs, but with a career 227 AVG, he may be sharing time.  And if that’s the case things likely aren’t going well in Seattle.  All those guys exist to protect the new free agent signee Robinson Cano in this lineup.  He is far an away their best hitter and first legitimate hitting threat in years.  Last year’s stat line of 314/27/107/81 was actually a bit of decline from his best numbers.  That just lets you know how good he is.  You can pencil him in for a 300+ AVG each year.  The move to Seattle from the New York bandbox won’t help his power, but 20 seems like a lock with 100 RBI if men get on base in front of him.  The only thing he doesn’t do is steal bases, though he swiped 7 last year.  He will be a great addition in Seattle.  The question is, will he have any RBI opportunities?  The leadoff spot is a serious question.  Dustin Ackley is the first choice to leadoff due to his pedigree.  He was the second overall pick in 2009.  So they’ve put a lot of time and energy into him and want him to work out.  He struggled in 113 games last year with a 253 AVG and only 2 SB.  His OBP was 319, which is okay but not great.  He’s moving to a new position as he’s a natural second baseman.  But with Cano in town, he’ll move to left and try to leadoff.  But he’s a risk.  If he can’t succeed in the number 1 spot, then SS Brad Miller will be the leadoff man.  Miller was a rookie last year who hit 265 in 76 games with 8 HR.  He’s not an ideal leadoff choice, which is why I put him in the 9^th spot. If neither Ackley nor Miller can get it done leading off, perhaps Michael Saunders will leadoff as he’s got some speed.  But at 236 with 12 HR, they see him hitting lower in the lineup, cleaning up for the heavy hitters.  Their best hitter from last year, third baseman Kyle Seager, is supposed to hit second.  He hit 260 with 22 HR and 9 SB last year.  He also scored 79 R.  He could leadoff, but they like him hitting second in front of Cano.  They hope he’ll see lots of fastballs, which could lead to 25 HR.  Hard to know.  But the top of the Mariners lineup is messy, meaning Cano’s RBI numbers could be limited.  The last member of this offense is Mike Zunino, who isn’t known for his offense.  Also, expect to see a lot of Abraham Almonte as he’s a better defensive player than Hart, Morrison and now Ackley, who is in a new position.  He actually led off in the Mariners’ season opener.  This team has potential, but even with the addition of Cano, one of the best offensive players in the game, this offense is not a sure thing and a major question mark going into the season.

Defensively, this team doesn’t look like the surest bet.  Justin Smoak is average, at best, at first.  Cano is great at second and Miller is strong at short.   Seager similarly, is pretty good at the hot corner.  Then it gets iffy.  Dustin Ackley is learning a new position in left field.  He’s got a weak arm, which is why he’s there as opposed to right or center.  He’s got good speed and great athleticism playing second base before this.  But that’s a tough move.  Michael Saunders isn’t a natural center fielder, but should be okay there.  And right field is another question mark.  Morrison isn’t great in right, playing more left and first base.  But he’s young and fairly athletic.  Hart is better in right, but has bad knees, potentially, and played first more recently.  I’m not saying either one of them will be a problem, but there are questions there.

The one area where the Mariners feel great is on the mound.  Felix Hernandez is a legitimate ace.  He was 12-10 last year with a 3.04 ERA and team leading 216 Ks in 204 IP.  He’s among the best in the business and will likely be again.  If healthy, 200+ IP with 200+ Ks and an ERA around 3 should be guaranteed.  What he’s hoping is that a better offense will make his Win number grow (because he generally pitches well enough to win 15-20 games) and see his loss total decline (as he gets no run support, and pitchers who give up fewer than 3 runs often don’t deserve to lose).  Hasashi Iwakuma was arguably the best pitcher in Seattle last year.  He led the team with 14 Wins and a 2.66 ERA.  He also logged the most innings at 219.  He’s less of a sure thing, but in two years he’s made 49 starts going 23-11 with a career 2.84 ERA.  The other positive sign is Iwakuma’s WHIP, which fell 27 points last year from 2012 and his BAA which went from 248 to 220.  All the numbers look strong and Iwakuma looks to be a legitimate number 2 starter in this league.  The rest of the rotation isn’t as clear-cut.  Erasmo Ramirez is expected to be one of those middle of the rotation arms.  He struggled with a 4.98 in 13 starts last year.  It wasn’t pretty, but the year before was much better with a 3.36 ERA in 8 starts.  He’s young, so they hope he can start a full season and turn in some competitive innings for the club.  If he does, he has to cut down on the walks and lower that WHIP.  That’ll go a long way towards helping his overall numbers.  I put James Paxton in the last spot in the rotation.  He went 3-0 in 4 starts last year with a 1.50 ERA, sub 1 WHIP and 172 BAA.  He struck out 21 in 24 IP.  And while those numbers look great, those were his only 4 career starts.  So we’ll see how he does over a full year.  They plan to protect him a bit by making him the number 5 man.  The most exciting man in this rotation might be youngster Taijuan Walker.  He went 1-0 in 3 starts last year, the only 3 of his career.  He wasn’t as hot as Paxton, but struck out 12 in 15 IP with a 3.60 ERA.  They love his stuff, so we’ll see what he can do.  He’s an exciting young arm and they expect him to be a future ace.  But, like Paxton, we don’t know much about him yet as his experience is extremely limited.  It’s nice to like the future there, but I’d expect the same growing pains that every young pitcher goes through.  With all those young pitchers, you need a strong bullpen.  And Seattle looks like theirs is in good shape.  It’s anchored by new closer Fernando Rodney.  Rodney didn’t follow his record setting season with one quite as strong in Tampa last year.   But he still saved 37 games for the Rays with a 3.38 ERA.  His 82 Ks in 66 IP were very impressive but his 1.34 WHIP was way too high, especially with hitters hitting only 211 off of him.  He’s got to cut down on the walks, or he will be in trouble.  The good news is Seattle is one of the best pitchers parks in the game, which is why so many of Seattle’s pitchers looked good last year.  If he locks down the 9^th, the Mariners can count on Tom Wilhemsen and Danny Farquhar in the 8^th.  Charlie Furbush can spot start and fill the long reliever role and give this team a strong bullpen from top to bottom.  People like pitching in Seattle, and these guys are no exception.

Outlook/Prediction:

The Mariners were in that dreaded middle area of a team that wasn’t re-building but wasn’t ready to go for it all.  Then this year they decided to make a push.  They signed Cano to a 10 year deal and added some offense in the form of Corey Hart and Logan Morrison.  They added a legitimate closer to strengthen an already strong bullpen.  And their starting rotation continues to look good.  So they hope to start winning now.  The bad news is that they play in arguably the best division in the game and things don’t look easier for them this year.

They have some talented young pitchers as King Felix is still under 30 and Taijuan Walker and James Paxton are extremely young.  Ackley, Miller and Seager are still young and Cano is in his prime.  The future looks okay, but not as strong as other teams.  The present looks good, though again not as good as other teams.  So despite the improvements, this team still looks to be a middle of the road club, just one that spent a lot more money this offseason.

I think the Mariners will be better.  But I don’t know that they move up the standings very far.  The Rangers and A’s are still better.  The Angels are still better on paper.  And Houston’s future is brighter.  I’m picking the Mariners to win more games than Houston this year, but that’s about it.  I’m sorry to disappoint people in the Pacific Northwest, but this offense only looks good enough to win 75 games, even with this pitching staff.  Which makes me pick the Mariners to finish fourth in this division.