Well it’s that time.
Baseball is well underway and I’m still breaking down teams. Better late than never. After starting with the AL West, I’ve knocked
out the entire National League before moving back to the AL East to finish the
Junior Circuit. Breaking teams down
based on last year’s standings, the second team in the AL East I’ll take a look
at will be the Baltimore Orioles.
Projected Starting Lineup
C- Matt Wieters
1B- Chris Davis
2B- Brian Roberts
SS- JJ Hardy
3B- Manny Machado
LF- Nate McClouth
CF- Adam Jones
RF- Nick Markakis
DH- Nolan Reimold
Starting Rotation: Wei
Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Jason Hammel, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman, Tommy Hunter
Bullpen: Jim
Johnson, Pedro Strop, Darren O’Day, Troy Patton, Brian Matusz
Projected Batting Order
2B- Brian Roberts
CF- Adam Jones
RF_ Nick Markakis
1B- Chris Davis
C- Matt Wieters
SS- JJ Hardy
3B- Manny Machado
DH- Nolan Reimold
LF- Nate McClouth
The Baltimore Orioles may have been the most surprising team
in baseball last season. It was up there
between the Orioles and Athletics, but with the Orioles lacking success longer
than the A’s, I’m giving them the edge in the biggest surprise success contest. Widely considered to be the worst team in the
best division in baseball, the Orioles had an incredible run last year, with
the best record in one games and an overachieving group of youngsters that
ousted the Red Sox and Rays and won the Wildcard in the AL East. However, there are questions about whether
they could do it again. Their run
differential was historically bad last year and their 1-run game record will be
nearly impossible to repeat. But the
chemistry on this team is great and Buck Showalter has these guys believing
they can play with the best teams in baseball.
And with their success last year and subsequent playoff appearance and
win over the Rangers in the Wildcard round it’s hard to argue with him. It’ll be tough for the Orioles to repeat, but
no one thinks they can do it more than the guys wearing Orioles uniforms.
This offense was good last year, and they need it to be
better this year. As I previously
mentioned, the Orioles had a crazy run differential last year. They were 18 games over 500 but were
outscored by 21 runs. They won 27 games
by 1 run and 22 by 2 runs. They’d like
to see that offense play a little more consistently, though they are hardly the
issue. Adam Jones was the batting champ
of this team last year, hitting 287.
That’s part of the issue the Orioles face. They really don’t have anyone who hits 300 or
better. Perhaps someone will do it this
year and Adam Jones would be my bet, though Nick Markakis would be another good
bet as he hit 298 in 104 games. But
Jones was always a good player and took a step towards greatness last
year. He carried this team into the
playoffs with the high AVG, 32 HR, 82 RBI, 16 SB and a team leading 103 R. He’s a top of the order bat who hits second a
lot, but could be a great man in the 3 hole as well. In a pinch he could lead off. He likely won’t ever steal 30 bases, though
20 is a possibility, but everything else he does is great. 30 HR power is for real, the RBIs speak for
themselves (and in the middle of the order that likely goes over 100), the
speed is good and he won a Gold Glove last season. This guy does it all and is a leader on this
team. And we saw his skills in the WBC
as he was one of the few hitters who played well for team USA. I’m thinking another season of 285 with 25+
HR, 80+ RBI, 90+ R and 15 SB. The power
leader for this team was Chris Davis, who slugged 33 HR last season and led the
team with 85 RBI. He was considered a
bit of a bust in Texas, as a guy with great power but someone who couldn’t put
it all together at the plate and was a detriment in the field. But he changed minds last year, getting a
chance in Baltimore and slugging all those HR with a 270 AVG and playing a
solid first, third and left field. He
won’t win any Gold Gloves, but will be an adequate first baseman this year and
has gotten off to a torrid start. There
is no doubt in my mind that he can surpass 30 HR again, and likely put up a
decent AVG. Think 260+ with 30+ HR, 85
RBI and 75 R. Very similar to last
season. The other two middle of the
order bats will be Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters. Markakis has been a long-time Oriole and fan
favorite for years. He never became a
superstar, but his consistency was extremely impressive as he would hit 275
with 20+ HR, 75+ RBI, 75+ R and 15+ SB each season while playing a great right
field. He’s very similar to Adam Jones,
though not quite the defender he is.
Jones is great while Markakis may only be very good, but if he’s healthy
this guy can be counted on to play like he always does, and consistency like
that is worth a lot in this game of ups and downs. Matt Wieters will spend most of his time
hitting 5th and crouching behind the plate, though he’ll be spelled
as a DH from time to time. Wieters
hasn’t quite lived up to his potential yet and struggled last season hitting
249. But he was third on the team with
23 HR and second with 83 RBI. Perhaps
he’ll never blossom into a superstar.
But his bat plays and scouts still think he can be a man who reaches the
300 plateau. I’m thinking he’s more of a
275 hitter, but even that has been out of reach for him. I don’t know if he gets there this year, but
he’ll be much closer than 249. Think
265+ with 20+ HR and 80+ RBI. He’ll
likely never hit 30 bombs, but is great behind the plate and 20+ HR from a
catcher is nice to have on any team. That’s
the core of this offense. The others
support these guys in different ways.
They’d like to think Brian Roberts can come back healthy, but he’s
already hurt and hasn’t been healthy in years.
There is no way to know what he could do if healthy and unfortunately at
this point you have to assume he’ll get hurt.
We will likely see a lot of Alexi Casilla, which is why they went out
and signed a high caliber backup for second base, knowing that Roberts can’t
always stay healthy. With Roberts out,
you’ll likely see Nate McLouth lead off in Baltimore. McLouth hit 241 with 7 HR, 20 RBI, 39 R and
12 SB. His All Star season in Pittsburgh
in 2008 where he was a 20/20 man seems like an aberration. The Braves traded for him after that season,
and he bounced around struggling in Atlanta until last season when the Pirates
re-signed him to be a fourth outfielder.
He only played in 34 games with the Pirates and really struggled hitting
140. But Baltimore took a flier on him
needing bats for their playoff push. And
he found some new life there, hitting 268 with a 342 OBP out of the leadoff
spot. He hit all 7 of his HR, 18 of his
20 RBI and stole all 12 of his bases in Baltimore while playing a solid left
field. He’ll leadoff for them this
season with Brian Roberts spending time on the DL. At short you have J.J. Hardy, who is now
expected to do nothing other than play good defense and hit the ball deep. He’s always had good power, but it was
limited as he tried to improve his contact rate. The defense was always top notch. So, in Baltimore, they gave him a different
role letting him hit in the bottom of the lineup and telling him to swing for
the fences. It worked as he cracked 28
HR last season. And the 238 AVG was fine
for a number 7 hitter. He’s joined on
the left side of the infield by young Manny Machado, a shortstop by trade who
has taken over third base with Chris David at first and Mark Reynolds out of
town. Machado hit 262 with 7 HR in only
51 games. They love his talent and can’t
wait to see a full season of him in Baltimore.
Nolan Reimold is serviceable as a DH and that’s the offense the Orioles
will put out there. They are young and
talented. They may not be the best out
there, but they are above average and getting better each season.
Baltimore’s leading starter last year was Japanese import
Wei-Yin Chen. Chen led the team with 12
Wins, a 4.02 ERA and 154 Ks. His 32
starts also led the team. And while
those numbers don’t seem great, it was good for his first season in the majors
and the only reason he was the leader is because he was the only pitcher who
qualified in the counting stats. The
best starter in Baltimore was probably Jason Hammel who went 8-6 in his time as
an Oriole with a 3.43 ERA. He only
started 20 games, which limited his numbers and made him ineligible for the ERA
title. But he played very well with his
WHIP and BAA both slightly better than league average. Chen’s numbers were right at the league
average. After those 2 stabilizing the rotation, the
Orioles trotted out 7 more starters who didn’t have the success that Chen and
Hammel enjoyed. Tommy Hunter matched
Hammel with 20 starts, but greatly struggled with a 5.45 ERA and BAA of
302. Jake Arieta was 3-9 with a 6.20 ERA
in his 18 starts. After those guys
struggled, Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter turned to some other options. The first was Chris Tillman, who has faded in
the eyes of many since his highly touted days as a prospect. But he got the job done in this tough
division last year going 9-3 in 15 games with a stellar 2.93 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and
207 BAA. Those are ace numbers. They hope he can do that over a full
season. The next man they turned to was
Miguel Gonalez. He went 9-4 in 15 games
with a 3.25 ERA. Gonazelz and Tillman
have now moved up to become middle of the order starters behind Chen and Hammel
and have left Tillman and Arieta to fight for the 5th spot. The loser will join Brian Matusz (another
highly touted prospect who didn’t pan out) in the bullpen with Jim
Johnson. And speaking of shockers, how
bout the season Jim Johnson had at Camden Yards. He had 51 Saves to go with a 2.49 ERA, 1.02
WHIP and 220 BAA. He’s not a big
strikeout guy, and you really tend to like that in a closer. The true outcomes are easier to count
on. But he got the job done and played
very well last season. No one saw this
success coming, and it’s tough to believe he can do it again. But as well as he played last season, and the
peripheral numbers support the big ones, makes me think he should have close to
the same success. Think 35+ Saves with a
competitive ERA. After him, this bullpen
doesn’t look great on paper (frankly Johnson isn’t jaw dropping on paper). Pedro Stop was solid with 24 Holds and a 2.44
ERA. But the rest of their top relievers
are no longer on the team (Luis Ayala, Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom). They hope that Darren O’Day and Troy Patton
can step up and play solidly with the whichever odd starters join them to play
solidly and support this offense better this season.
2013 Prediction:
The Orioles are a tricky team to predict this year. Their success last year looks fluky, but a
closer examination shows that they have talent and it’s young and should,
theoretically, get better with age.
Their pitching isn’t great, and pitching wins championships. And their hitters look like they could be
prone to streaks. And while youth is
good, sometimes it means inexperience.
The good news about that is this team has playoff experience from last
season, including a playoff win. So what
does that mean? I don’t know. This team confuses me. But, pressed to make a decision, I’d have to
say that I don’t think this team has what it takes to win the division this
year. Nor do I think they will in the
Wildcard. I’m picking them to finish in
fourth, as a good team, but well out of the playoffs. Obviously waiting this long into the season
to publish this gives me a chance to edit my picks. I won’t do that, though I acknowledge that
this team is better than I thought, and I probably put them too low. But in a pinch, I’d still have to say they
finish outside the playoffs, despite their early success.