Hot Stove: A rundown of each team in the offseason
and what they are looking to improve in 2012.
Minnesota Twins: The
next team we will look at in the AL Central is the Minnesota Twins.
Projected Starting
Lineup:
1B Justin
Morneau
2B Alexi
Casilla
SS Jamey
Carroll
3B Danny
Valencia
LF Ben
Revere
CF Denard
Span
RF Josh
Willingham
C Joe
Mauer
DH Rene
Tosoni
Projected Starting
Rotation:
Carl Pavano
Francisco Liriano
Brian Duensing
Jason Marquis
Scott Baker
Projected Batting
Order:
CF Denard
Span
2B Alexi
Casilla
C Joe
Mauer
1B Justin
Morneau
RF Josh
Willingham
3B Danny
Valencia
LF Ben
Revere
SS Jamey
Carroll
DH Rene
Tosoni
The Twins had a very disappointing 2011. At 63-99, they had the worst record in
the American League. Injury was
mostly to blame as their two best offensive players Mauer and Morneau missed a
ton of time. But there was concern
that their supporting cast was able to do so little without them. And the ones that did perform (Cuddyer,
Kubel and Thome) are no longer with the team. Mauer and Morneau are the heart of this club. If they perform, then this club can
compete. But even if they are
playing at an All Star level, they need the players around them to step up
their game if they are going to make any noise in an improved AL Central.
With Morneau and Mauer out for the majority of last season,
it was up to other players to step up and perform. Unfortunately, 3 of the 4 who stepped up best have since
left the club. Michael Cuddyer led
this team in AVG and HR and was second in RBI. Jason Kubel was second in AVG and third in HR and RBI. And Thome slugged himself into
consideration with 12 HR in limited ABs and a great 351 OBP. The only other hitter who made any
noise in this lineup last year was third baseman Danny Valencia, who led the
team with 72 RBI. That came with
15 HR, but also a 246 AVG. He
needs help, as he’s young and can’t carry this offense alone. Left fielder Ben Revere played pretty
well hitting 267 last season. He
didn’t have any power (0 HR) but he did chip in 30 RBI and 34 SBs. Alexi Casilla only played in 97 games
last year hitting 260 with 2 HR, 21 RBI, 52 R and 15 SBs. If he can stay healthy he can play
either second or short. They liked
his numbers and hope he can add to them in a full season. His partner up the middle, Tsuyoshi
Nishioka, didn’t play well in limited games last season. He hit 226 with 19 RBI, 14 R and 2 SBs. They weren’t pleased with what their
big free agent acquisition gave them in 2011. He’s going to have to fight for his starting job. Casilla could take time, mainly at
second and Jamey Carroll looks to rob him of time at short. Carroll played well in LA last year
hitting 290 with 17 RBI, 52 R and 10 SBs for the Dodgers last season. The veteran isn’t a star, but hits for
high AVG and can get on base and score runs. I’d expect him to play a lot this season, unless Nishioka
really turns it on. In the center field,
Denard Span also missed a lot of playing time. He only played in 70 games with a 264 AVG, 37 R and 6
SBs. He’s been solid at the top of
this lineup for the last two years and they hope that a healthy season of him
can see plus AVG, 100 R and 25 SBs.
The last member of this outfield is free agent Josh Willingham. Willingham hit 246 with 29 HR, 98 RBI
and 69 R for the Oakland Athletics last year. He was a big prize to go after, and his power is pretty
consistent, especially if he can flirt with 30 HR in a pitchers park like the
Oakland Coliseum. They hope that
power will translate in Target Field as he backs up the M brothers. And that brings us to the former
batting champ and MVP. Mauer is
arguably the best offensive catcher in baseball. While his power has never been where people thought it would
be, he consistently hits for a tremendous AVG and drives in runs. In his best season in 2009, he hit 365
with 28 HR and 96 RBI. When
healthy, he should hit over 300 with 15-20 HR and 70+ RBI. They need that output, as he’s their
number three hitter and the best player on this club. The former MVP Morneau is hoping to finally be healthy. Since suffering a concussion in late
2009, Morneau has been unable to play a full season. Even in his limited time he’s hit for plus AVG and great
power. In 2009 he had 30 HR and
100 RBI. However, last year wasn’t great as he hit only 227 with 4 HR. Morneau’s been dealing with concussion
symptoms for so long that he’s not sure he can come back. But if he can stay healthy he anchors
this lineup, hitting cleanup. And
they need those 30 HR and that plus AVG if they are going to even be in the
discussion for the playoffs.
You have to be pretty bad on in all aspects of the game to
finish with the worst record in the league. And as bad as the Twins’ offense was, their pitching was
just as bad. Not a single pitcher
on this staff had double digit wins.
(To be fair 3 guys were tied with 9 Wins). The best ERA among the starters last season was Carl
Pavano’s 4.30. (He was one of the
guys with 9 Wins). But he did
little else well (though I don’t know that “well” should be the adverb
attributed to a 4.30 ERA). His BAA
was an atrocious 294, his WHIP was a pedestrian 1.36 and he only struck out 102
hitters in 222 IP (at least he ate up innings). I guess he’s the ace.
The guy who they were hoping to be the ace didn’t pitch much
better. Francisco Liriano (also a
9 game winner) had some numbers that were better than Pavano, and some that
weren’t. His BAA was much better
(249) but his WHIP was not as good (1.49). He struck out more guys and gave up fewer hits. But he also walked more guys, and
didn’t strand as many runners as Pavano, ending the year with a terrible 5.09
ERA. Both of these guys need to
improve dramatically, as they are expected to be the two best pitchers on this
staff. Scott Baker (underachiever,
only won 8 games) led the team with 123 Ks. Nolan Ryan he was not.
But he was one of the better pitchers on this team last year. He went 8-6 in 21 starts, with a 3.14
ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 248 BAA. But as
good as he was, he’s fighting for a spot in the rotation. Pavano and Liriano are going to start,
as are Brian Duensing and new arrival Jason Marquis. So Baker is fighting Anthony Swarzak for a spot in the
rotation this spring training. Swarzak
was a starter/reliever for the Twins last year. He had a 4.32 ERA and a 4-7 record. His 275 BAA left a lot to be desired
and his WHIP wasn’t anything special.
If it were me, I’d let this guy be my spot starter/long reliever and let
Baker start. I mentioned the other
two starters Duensing and Marquis.
Duensing (the third guy with 9 Wins) had little else worth
mentioning. His ERA was terrible
(5.23), the WHIP was also bad (1.52) and the BAA was also pretty weak
(299). So he’s hanging onto his
job by virtue of experience, though strong performances from other pitchers
could cost him the rotation spot.
The last starter is Jason Marquis who has been unspectacular the last
couple of years. In 20 starts in
Washington he went 8-5 with a respectable 3.95 ERA. Luck was part of it as his 283 BAA was entirely too
high. But he played well enough to
be traded to the Diamondbacks at the deadline. However his luck faded in the desert. He went 0-1 in 3 starts with a 9.53
ERA, 2.29 WHIP and 386 BAA. An
injury mercifully kept him from making more starts. Overall he was 8-6 with a 4.43 ERA on the season. That’s very passable. If he can pitch like he did in D.C he
should be a valuable asset at the back end of this rotation. But if he struggles, there are plenty
of pitchers who are looking to start for this Twins team. These starters need to play well,
because the middle relief for this club doesn’t look great. The loss of Joel Zumaya was a major
blow. Matt Capps is a solid closer
and Glen Perkins should be good to set up, but the other pitchers have a lot to
prove this season. In all, this
pitching staff has a lot of improvements to make if they want to help pull
their team out of the basement.
2012 Prediction…The Twins had a huge letdown season last
year. Their two stars got hurt,
then after a terrible season a lot of their role players departed. They have a lot of room for
improvement, but are essentially trying to do it with a new team. While they have every reason to believe
they will be better with Mauer and Morneau, they had a 2011 Indianapolis Colts
situation on their hands where they were abysmal without their stars. If these two come back strong, the
Twins will be better, but with so many other losses it’s really hard to see
them playing October baseball. I
think Detroit wins the division, and I don’t think they have enough wins for a
wildcard berth. Honestly, I think any
finish outside of last should be something the Twins should be happy with.
Up next….Los Angeles Angels.