Tuesday, April 30, 2013

San Diego Padres 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Baseball is nearing the end of its first month.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like this season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I started with the AL West then knocked out the NL East and Central.  I’m now in the NL West.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the fourth team I’ll look at in the NL West will be the San Diego Padres. 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

 

C-         Yasmani Grandal

1B-      Yonder Alonso

2B-      Logan Forsythe

SS-       Everth Cabrera

3B-      Chase Headley

LF-      Carlos Quentin

CF-      Cameron Maybin

RF-      Will Venable

 

Starting Rotation:      Edinson Volquez, Clayton Richard, Eric Stults, Jason Marquis, Tyson Ross

 

Bullpen:          Huston Street, Luke Gregerson, Dale Thayer, Brad Bach, Joe Thatcher, Andrew Cashner

 

Projected Batting Order

 

SS-       Everth Cabrera

CF-      Cameron Maybin

3B-      Chase Headley

LF-      Carlos Quentin

1B-      Yonder Alonso

C-         Yasmani Grandal

RF-      Will Venable

2B-      Logan Forsythe

 

The San Diego Padres have struggled recently.  In 2010, they shocked the world, winning 90 games and finishing 2 games back of the San Francisco Giants in the NL West.  That is unlikely to happen this season.  This team is in full re-build mode, though they’ve been in it long enough to have a solid core coming together.  Chase Headley broke out last season, finally living up to his potential and leading the league in RBI.  Everth Cabrera took over the starting shortstop position and flew like a bunny around the bags, racking up stolen bases.  And Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal had full seasons in the bigs to gain experience and grow into their potential.  However, this team isn’t ready to contend yet.  Especially when some of their star players will be missing time due to injury (Headley) or suspension (Grandal…illegal substance).  And this group of starters leaves a lot to be desired, even pitching in spacious Petco Park, which is going to be a little less spacious after they move in the fences this season.  The point is, the Padres are headed in the right direction, but they’ve got a long way to go.

 

Offensively this team was led by Chase Headley, which is no big surprise.  He is their best player.  The surprise was how good he was.  He hit 286 with 31 HR and 115 RBI.  He also led the team with 95 R and swiped 17 bags.  He was a 5-tool player and a beast.  The tricky thing is…his contract is running out.  The Padres have to decide if he’s the guy they want to build around (and they do have some solid offensive pieces in place at first, catcher, short and wherever Gyorko ends up) or if they want to let him go, put Gyorko at third (which makes Forsythe the second baseman) and get some prospects back for the future.  It’s hard to know what they’ll decide.  But if doesn’t get healthy and come back soon, they might let him go.  If he has a bad year, he might stay as his value will have dropped.  It’s something to keep an eye on this season.  Beyond Headley, this offense was weak.  Young Yonder Alonso had a strong season, hitting 273 in 155 games.  But he only cracked 9 HR and drove in 62.  Petco is a tough place to hit HR, but you want more power from a first baseman.  They hope he’ll grow into his power and the moved in fences will help him.  But I wouldn’t expect any more than 15 HR from him this year, and that would be quite an improvement.  Carlos Quentin showed impressive power, but has had a long history of injury issues.  His 16 HR in 86 games were a pleasant addition, but they just can’t keep him on the field.  I’d expect another injury-shortened season with around 20 HR, depending on how many games he plays.  No one else besides Headley and Quentin had double-digit power.  But there was plenty of speed.  Everth Cabrera led the team with 44 SBs last year in only 115 games.  But his 246 AVG and 324 OBP saw him hitting lower in the order and only scoring 49 R.  If he doesn’t develop into a top of the order guy, then the Padres are in trouble, and thus far he has not been that guy.  Steals are nice, but you want that speed at the top of the lineup.  Cameron Maybin was in the same catergory.  He had 26 steals, but only a 243 AVG and 306 OBP.  He played in 147 games and helped his value with 8 HR, 45 RBI and 67 R, but doesn’t seem to be a long term solution at the leadoff spot either.  Will Venable was better with 24 steals and a 264 AVG.  His 335 OBP was a little better, but again, not the top of the order presence they need.  All this speed is nice, but you want to use it to manufacture runs.  The Padres don’t seem capable of doing that.  Chris Denorfia was probably the best option they had at leadoff, hitting 293 in 130 games with 13 steals.  He scored 56 R and had a 345 OBP.  But his upside is limited, so they want someone else to take the job.  Until they do, he may start in the outfield and leadoff.  Another future star is Yasmani Grandal who hit 297 in 60 games last year.  He also popped 8 HR, driving in 36.  He might be their brightest offensive star, but will begin the year serving a 50 game suspension for PED usage.  If he was only good because of the drugs, then that’s bad news. Either way, his bottom line will be limited as he won’t return until late May/early June.  The Padres aren’t an offensive force.  And while they have some bright spots and lots of potential, especially in the speed category, they haven’t put it all together yet.  It may take a while.  But at least they have a lot of youth and are letting their youngsters get some experience, including highly touted prospect Jed Gyorko, who will get a lot of ABs filling in at third for the injured Headley.

 

You expect pitchers to have great success in Petco Park, but you have to be a decent pitcher to see any of that translate.  The Padres apparently don’t have decent pitchers.  Clayton Richard was good last year, leading the team with 14 Wins and a 3.99 ERA.  But 3.99 is not a good enough number to be leading a team, especially pitching in that park.  Richard got 14 Wins, but also suffered 14 losses.  He’s not the problem as his WHIP was a tick below AVG and BAA a tick above.  But he’s an innings eater who led the club with 218.  He’s not an ace, but might be for this team.  Edinson Volquez led the team in Ks with 174, but that came with an 11-11 record and a 4.14 ERA.  He walked 105 last year, which knocked his WHIP up to 1.45.  That’s bad.  His BAA of 236 was nice, but he keeps beating himself by putting guys on.  Until he’s able to stop doing that, and he hasn’t shown that he has the capacity to stop walking guys yet, he’ll struggle.  The brightest pitching spot might be Eric Stults who went 8-3 with a 2.92 ERA in 14 starts.  He also appeared in 4 games as a reliever, which helped his numbers.  He’s not a strikeout guy, but kept batters off base with a 1.18 WHIP.  His stuff is okay (51 Ks in 90+ IP and 249 BAA) but he gets batters out.  That’s not common in San Diego.  If he can stay healthy and continue to grow as a pitcher, he might find some success with the Padres.  The back end of this rotation will feature veteran Jason Marquis and Andrew Cashner.  Both were okay with ERAs over 4 in their combined 23 starts going 9-11 (again, combined numbers).  Neither is overly exciting and are essentially eating innings for a team that is re-building.  That’s the starting rotation.  It’s not exciting.  It’s not very good.  And it is expected to win games with a weak offense.  The one area that’s not too bad is the bullpen, which is led by closer Huston Street.  Street garnered 23 Saves with a 1.85 ERA last year.  He’s set up by Luke Gregerson and Dale Thayer, both of whom had solid ERAs (Gregerson’s better than Thayer’s) to go with high strikeout numbers and 20+ Holds apiece.  The middle relief is not as good, but the back end of the bullpen is strong.  If the Padres struggle, you may see some of these guys (mainly Street) hit the trading block, but if the Padres ever get to the end of a game with a lead, it’ll be in good hands. 

 

2013 Prediction:

 

Well the Padres are trying to get better.  They are taking steps.  But it’s a slow process and they aren’t there yet.  They may build around Headley.  They may trade him for prospects and contend a little later.  It just depends how close they think they are.  It makes little sense to pay Headley a lot of money to lead a team that can only win 75 games.  It’s an improvement, but who plays for that.  The Padres want to return to the playoffs.  Until they think they have a team that can get there, they probably won’t spend big money on anyone.  One thing is for sure, they have a long road to go and won’t be in the hunt this season.  Sorry Friar Fans.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Arizona Diamondbacks 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Baseball season is in full swing.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I started with the AL West, then moved the NL East and NL Central.  I’m wrapping up the senior circuit with the NL West.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the third NL West team I’ll take a look at will be the Arizona Diamondbacks.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks:

2012 Record: 81-81  3rd in the NL West 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

 

C-         Miguel Montero

1B-      Paul Goldschmidt

2B-      Aaron Hill

SS-       Cliff Pennington

3B-      Martin Prado

LF-      Jason Kubel

CF-      Adam Eaton

RF-      Cody Ross

 

 

Starting Rotation:      Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, Brandon McCarthy, Wade Miley, Randall Delgado

 

Bullpen:                      J.J. Putz, David Hernandez, Heath Bell, Brad Zeigler, Tony Sipp, Josh Collmenter, Matt Reynolds

 

Projected Batting Order

 

CF-      Adam Eaton

3B-      Martin Prado

2B-      Aaron Hill

1B-      Paul Goldschmidt

LF-      Jason Kubel

C-         Miguel Montero

RF-      Cody Ross

SS-       Cliff Pennington

The Diamondbacks were a very mediocre team last year, going 81-81.  They were strong on both sides of the ball, but underperformed and didn’t make the playoffs.  The question is, will this team that won the division two years ago in 2011, or the average team of 2012.  The pitching staff may have over performed in the season they won the division.  The offense lost one of their best players, though by choice.  Now they are counting on an offense of grinders with some new faces (Prado, Pennington, Ross) to support a pitching staff with some new faces (McCarthy, Delgado, Bell).  A lot has changed in Arizona, and GM Kevin Towers and the rest of the Diamondbacks front office hope it all changed for the better.

 

The offense is looking vastly different this year, but the Diamondbacks believe they have a solid group.  Chase Field is a great place to hit, and they think that they’ll do fine this season, even without Justin Upton.  The team batting leader last season was Aaron Hill, who hit 302 with 26 HR, 85 RBI, 93 R and 14 SB.  That’s great offensive output, especially for a second baseman.  Last season’s breakout campaign was fairly unexpected, but didn’t come out of nowhere as he’s a big powerful guy who’s had strong seasons in the past when he was a Blue Jay.  Hill’s HR total was second on the team, behind Jason Kubel.  Kubel had 30 HR to go with a team leading 90 RBI. He was definitely a slugger, turning in a 253 AVG and 151 Ks to 57 BB.  But the power is what they wanted from him, and his ability to drive in runs was huge for this team, and he got on base enough to score 75 R.  He’s one of the big bats in the middle of this order and as long he continues to drive in runs and hit the ball over the fence occasionally, then they don’t care what his AVG is.  One of the biggest surprises on this team was the play of rookie Paul Goldschmidt.  They expected him to play at a high level, but not quite this soon.  He hit 286 with 20 HR, 82 RBI, 82 R and 18 SB.  They knew he had good power, but they were very pleased with his AVG and blown away with that speed.  He’s a promising young slugger with a bright future.  Between those three guys, you could see 20, 25, and 30 HR to go with 80-100 RBI, not to mention 15 SB from Hill and Goldschmidt.  They are now the leaders of this team.  After Goldschmidt’s great rookie season, they hope to strike lightning in a bottle twice with rookie Adam Eaton, who they want to take over the center field job and hit at the top of the lineup.  In 22 games last year, he hit 259 with 2 HR, 5 RBI, 19 R and 2 SB.  It’s a small sample size, but his 382 OBP was good to see, as was his 14 BB/15 K ratio.    A lot of people think the Diamondbacks are lacking a true star now that Justin Upton is out of the desert, but there is no doubt that they are deep with talent.  In addition to the aforementioned players, the Diamondbacks have an All Star behind the plate in Miguel Montero.  Montero may not be the biggest star when it comes to big name catchers, but he is very good and incredibly consistent.  Last season he hit 286 with 15 HR, 88 RBI and 65 R.  That’s fantastic output for a catcher.  He cleans up behind the big boppers, and does a great job.  Finally, this offense has a couple of new elements that they hope will support this solid nucleus.  They signed free agent Cody Ross to take over in right field for the departed Justin Upton, who went to the Atlanta Braves in a trade.  Ross hit 267 in Boston last season, with 22 HR, 81 RBI and 70 R in many more games then he was supposed to play.  The good news for him is that it made his stock rise and earned him a nice deal to play for Arizona.  I’d expect another season of 260+ with 15+ HR and 60+ RBI and R depending on where in the order he hits.  They expect a little more out of new third baseman Martin Prado, who was the main return in the Upton trade.  Prado hit 301 with the Braves last season with 10 HR, 70 RBI, 81 R and 17 SB.  The 300 AVG is what we’ve come to expect from Prado when he’s healthy and getting a full slate of playing time.  Last year for Atlanta, he was technically the starting left fielder, but he played a lot of third, some second and then short when injuries befell Andrelton Simmons.  He’s also played first in the past, so he’s a valuable weapon for Kirk Gibson’s team.  He’ll probably play a lot of third, especially with the wealth of outfielders in Arizona.  But I think we can expect him to hit around 300 again, with possibly 15 HR (he’s done that before and Chase Field is much friendlier to longballs than Turner Field is) and 75 RBI/R, again depending on where he hits in the order.  But I’m betting he’ll hit second, so another 70 RBI, 80 R campaign looks probable.  The real question here is about the stolen bases.  He’s always hovered around 5, but had a great percentage.  So, Fredi Gonzalez gave him the green light more in Atlanta, and he was good.  I doubt he’ll swipe 20 this year.  Or even 15.  But 10 is probably a good guess, with a possibility for more.  His partner on the left side of the infield is also new to the desert.  Cliff Pennington is more of a glove first man, hitting 215 with 6 HR, 28 RBI, 50 R and 15 SB.  There’s not a lot of expectation for him at the plate, but he’s more of a placeholder until prospect Didi Gregorious comes up.  They added Gregorious to the team in a three way trade with the Reds and Indians.  The Diamondbacks sent Trevor Bauer to the Indians, got Gregorious from the Reds and Tony Sipp from the Indians and the Reds got Shin Soo Choo back.  Oh and the Indians got Drew Stubbs.  It’s a really confusing trade and I almost certainly forgot parts of it.  But, other than some SBs, Pennington likely won’t contribute much.  After the starters, the Diamondbacks can boast some of the best depth in the game.  In addition to the versatility of Prado, the Diamondbacks have a Gold Glove winning fourth outfielder in Gerardo Parra, who hits for a good AVG (273) with great speed (15 SB).  If he were to ever get a starting job, we could see 25+ SB from him and maybe 80+ R.  But the Diamondbacks like him subbing in at the corners, though he does play all 3 positions.  In addition to Parra, they’ve got two solid veterans backing up the corners in Eric Chavez and Eric Hinske.  This offense should play.  The question is, how good is this pitching staff?

 

Last year, rookie Wade Miley led this pitching staff with 16 Wins and a 3.33 ERA.  He was my pick or Rookie of the Year, as I think it’s harder to break into this league as a pitcher than a hitter.  Sorry Bryce Harper.  Anyway, Wiley was very solid last season, keeping his ERA low, mainly by pitching to contact (144 Ks) and not letting men on base (1.18 WHIP).  Hitters were able to put the bat on the ball okay (255 BAA), but he kept his ERA low by not beating himself.  I’d expect some regression, perhaps an uptick in ERA and a drop in his Win total.  He threw a very impressive 194 IP last season, and you worry about the durability of a young arm like that.  The good news is that he was successful in his first season, and isn’t expected to be the man in Arizona this season.  As long as he continues to grow and improve, he’ll live through a regression and still be competitive keeping his team in games.  The true ace of this staff is Ian Kennedy who led the team with 187 Ks.  He was strong last year, though not as good as in 2011.  He went 15-12 in 208 IP, but his other numbers fell from their lofty perch.  His ERA climbed to a little over 4 (4.02), his WHIP was a tick above average (1.30) and his BAA was also high (266).  His 2011 numbers (21-4, 2.88 ERA) probably won’t come back.  But he’ll be better than he was last year.  Think 15+ Wins with a 3.50, 220 IP and 200 Ks (assuming he stays healthy).  Trevor Cahill is the number 2.  He went 13-12 last year with a 3.78 ERA.  He’s essentially an innings eater and did his job well last season.  He kept his ERA under 4 and logged right at 200 IP last season.  His WHIP and BAA were both a tad higher than you’d like, but he always pitches to those numbers, logs his innings, keeps his team in games, and wins double digit games.  Consistency is a valuable commodity in this game, and the Dbacks feel pretty certain about Cahill throwing 200 IP, striking out 150 and pitching to an ERA of around 4.  He was signed from the A’s last season and did a fantastic job holding this starting rotation together, and will need to do that again this season.  With Daniel Hudson missing the year to Tommy John, the Diamondbacks realized they needed some new blood to add to the middle of their starting rotation.  So they went back to the Oakland Athletics talent pool and brought in Brandon McCarthy.  McCarthy went 8-6 in 18 games last season.  He pitched well, with a 3.24 ERA.  His season was cut short after taking a scary line drive off the head.  But he’s healthy now, and in his last full season (2011) he threw 25 games going 9-9 with a 3.32 ERA.  His WHIP was not quite as good as the league average though his ERA was a tick better than average.  You see that a lot with guys who don’t have great stuff.  They don’t strike a lot of guys out, and aren’t fooling guys too much.  But they pitch to contact and don’t beat themselves.  It’s what he’s done in the past and what he did last year.  That makes me think his ERA will climb a bit, as his WHIP was right at average and his BAA was well above (267).  Also, Chase Field is a tougher place to pitch than the Oakland Coliseum.  But if he can cut back on the walks (1 fewer than the year before despite pitching 7 fewer games) and get back to what he’s good at (attacking the corners and changing speeds in the strike zone) he should approach 30 starts, with a sub 4 ERA, 180+ IP and 140 Ks.  The last spot in this rotation will be between Patrick Corbin and Josh Collmenter, though with the injury histories of McCarthy and Kennedy and Miley’s youth, both will likely see some starts.  Neither one is great, but both are good enough to keep the Diamondbacks in games.  And that’s all these starters should have to do with their strong offense.  The bullpen looks strong with J.J. Putz closing things out, David Hernandez as a strong setup man and former closers Heath Bell and Brad Zeigler coming out for late inning matchups.  Putz had 32 Saves last year, Hernandez is a talented youngster with a power arm, and having closers in the 7th inning is always a recipe for success.  The Diamondbacks hope that their strong bullpen will make up for any questions in their starting rotation.  And if that rotation lives up to it’s promise, this will be a great team.

 

 

2013 Prediction:

 

The Diamondbacks are a good team.  I like the way the have built this roster and the way they go about playing baseball.  I think Kirk Gibson’s insistence on “grinders” perhaps drove some talented players from this roster, for what I think is no good reason.  Justin Upton and Trevor Bauer are incredibly talented.  They aren’t lazy and they play hard.  But some things come more easily to some guys as opposed to others and these guys don’t seem to be “grinding it out”.  Perhaps the locker room camaraderie it will foster will make up for anything the team lost.  And this team still has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball.  I think the questions mainly revolve around this pitching staff that they hope is good enough to support an offense that, while talented, might be a bit diminished from last season.  While they might not be the best team in their division, they are talented, young and could be in the playoff hunt this year.  But even if this is not their year, they will likely be playing October baseball in the future.

Saturday, April 13, 2013

Los Angeles Dodgers 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Baseball is underway.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I started with the AL West, then knocked out the NL East and Central.  I’ve now moved on to the NL West.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the second NL West team I’ll take a look at will be the Los Angeles Dodgers.    


Los Angeles Dodgers:
2012 Record:  86-76  2nd in the NL West

Projected Starting Lineup

C-            A.J. Ellis
1B-            Adrian Gonzalez
2B-            Mark Ellis
SS-            Hanley Ramirez
3B-            Luis Cruz
LF-            Carl Crawford
CF-            Matt Kemp
RF-            Andre Ethier

Starting Rotation:
Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Chad Billingsley

Bullpen:
Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Matt Guerrier, JP Howell, Scott Elbert, Aaron Harang, Ted Lily

Projected Batting Order

LF-            Carl Crawford
2B-            Mark Ellis
CF            Matt Kemp
1B-            Adrian Gonzalez
SS-            Hanley Ramirez
RF-            Andre Ethier
C-            A.J. Ellis
3B-            Luis Cruz

The Dodgers are coming into their first full year of new ownership.  The team was sold last year, and now the new owners, headed by the Gugenheim group, Magic Johnson and Stan Kasten, are ready to take the NL by storm.  After spending nearly $2 billion to buy the team, the owners found out they’ll make roughly half of that back in a local television deal alone.  So they started spending big time, and hope to have purchased themselves a team with enough talent to win the NL West.

Last year’s Dodgers were solid, but a vastly different looking group than this year’s bunch.  Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier were the offensive leaders for this team even though Matt Kemp missed about 50 games.  Ethier led the team with a 284 AVG, 89 RBI, 79 R and was second on the team with 20 HR.  Matt Kemp was the team HR leader, even with all the games he missed.  When healthy, he was great hitting 303 with 23 HR, 69 RBI, 74 R and 9 SB.  With all the new players that were brought on, you wouldn’t realize that the number 3 offensive man on this team was catcher A.J. Ellis who had a breakout season.  He hit 270 with 13 HR, 52 RBI and 44 R.  He slowed down in the second half, and you worry about a catcher his age having a career year.  Luckily the Dodgers won’t be counting on him for another big year.  During last season, the Dodgers traded for Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Hanley Ramirez.  Then in this offseason they signed Zack Greinke and Hyun Jin-Ryu.  Hanely Ramirez joined the team first and had a pretty decent season between the Dodgers and Marlins.  He’s not the top fantasy player in the game anymore, but he was still a 20/20 man hitting 257 with 24 HR, 92 RBI, 79 R and 21 SB.  That’s great.  We are just used to numbers that have been a lot better in the past.  He split time between short and third, but played mainly short in LA.  He wants to play short, and was supposed to play short this season with Luis Cruz starting at third.  No one other than manager Don Mattingly thought that was a good idea, as Dee Gordon would then be in the minors though he is a far superior player to Luis Cruz.  The thought is that Hanley wouldn’t be happy at third and therefore will play better as a shortstop.  However, I hate that with a fiery passion, as people need to stop bending to Hanley Ramirez.  Tell him to be a team player and play the position he’s better at, third base.  It’s better for the team.  Few people frustrate me more than him.  Put him at third, let Dee Gordon play and the Dodgers will have the best team out there.  Or maybe ask Gordon to play third.  I bet he could.  Anyway, it’s moot for a while as Hanley Ramirez will miss the season’s first month, maybe longer with injury.  With Hanley gone, this team will lean even more heavily on Adrian Gonzalez who is expected to be an anchor in this lineup.  Despite a rough season in Boston and a power outage in LA, Gonzalez still played well hitting 299 with 18 HR, 108 RBI and 75 R between the two clubs.  The concern is the drop in HR for 3 straight seasons.  But this guy used to mash in Petco, one of the worst HR parks in the game and played well in this division.  While the pitching may have gotten better, you have to think that he’ll be able to find his power stroke.  Even if he doesn’t return to his previous highs, I think he can still be a 300 hitter with 20+ HR power.  Possibly 30 HR is a possibility.  But 100+ RBI was easily attained last season, and you could see up to 120 in a strong season hitting behind a solid group.  Toss in 80+ R and a possibility to be a truly elite first baseman, whether he hits 20 HR or 30.  The other big offensive question in LA is Carl Crawford.  Crawford might miss some time while recovering from Tommy John, but who knows how he’ll play when he returns.  After being a perennial stud in Tampa Bay, he really struggled in Boston.  He had one bad season, before having last year cut short due to injury.  He’s worth taking a flier on, though you worry about speed guys getting into their 30s.  If healthy, I’m thinking 275 with 80 R (allowing for missed time, but still putting him first or second in the order) and 30 SB.  He’s got an outside shot at 300 with 100 R and 40 SB, but I’d set my expectations lower.  Those guys are the studs, and there are a lot of them.  Matt Kemp is one of the best players in the game, Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford are great in the corners, Adrian Gonzalez could be great at first, and the rest of the infield of Hanley Ramirez, Mark Ellis, Luis Cruz and Dee Gordon ranges from great, to average to questionable.  But they should be average, at worst and possibly more.  The other fun thing about this offense is to look at all the possible ways you can build it based on who’s healthy at any time.  Here’s a few:

SS-            Dee Gordon                                                OR                        LF-            Carl Crawford
3B-            Hanley Ramirez                                                            SS-            Dee Gordon
CF-            Matt Kemp                                                                        CF-            Matt Kemp
1B-            Adrian Gonzalez                                                            1B-            Adrian Gonzalez
RF-            Andre Ethier                                                                        3B-            Hanley Ramirez
LF-            Carl Crawford                                                                        RF-            Andre Ethier
C-            A.J. Ellis                                                                        C-            A.J. Ellis
2B-            Mark Ellis                                                                        2B-            Mark Ellis


OR

LF-            Carl Crawford
RF-            Andre Ethier
CF-            Matt Kemp
1B-            Adrian Gonzalez
SS-            Hanley Ramierz
C-            A.J. Ellis
2B-            Mark Ellis
3B-            Luis Cruz

The possibilities are endless.  But we know this lineup will be without Ramirez and Crawford for a while, and Gordon will get some time near the top and the others will follow in any number of ways, with Kemp and Gonzalez hitting third and fourth.  No matter what the lineup is, as long as those guys are in the middle driving in runs, then you have to like what the Dodgers will do offensively.

While this Dodgers offense featured a number of different leaders, this pitching staff was led by one man…Clayton Kershaw.  He led the team with 14 Wins, a 2.53 ERA and 229 Ks in a team leading 227 IP.  His 1.02 WHIP was spectacular and his 210 BAA was even better.  This guy is one of the best pitchers in the league, and was near the top in Cy Young voting a year after winning the award in 2011.  Consider him to be a frontrunner for the award this year, and another season of 215 IP, 220 Ks, sub 3 ERA and 15 Wins, though 20 is a real possibility.  The number 2 man in this rotation was Chris Capuano, who was fantastic last year.  However he may not even crack the starting 5 this season.  Capuano went 12-12 with a 3.72 ERA in 198 IP.  He struck out 162, second on the team.  Chad Billingsley is likely going to get the 5th spot in this rotation.  The man who never lived up to his potential went 10-9 last year with a 3.55 ERA in 25 starts.  He struck out 128 in 145 IP, and if fully healthy could have won 15 games.  He likely won’t strike out 200, or reach 200 IP this year.  But he’s not being counted on to be a number 2 man. As a number 5 man his injury concerns might be assuaged by extra rest.  Either way, Billingsley is going to be a great number 5 man, as opposed to a bad number 2 man.  The new number 2 man is free agent Zack Greinke, who went 15-5 with a 3.48 ERA with the Dodgers and Angels last year.  He started 34 games, striking out 200 in over 200 IP.  After signing a big deal, Greinke will be one of the best number 2 pitchers in the game, while not having to be the ace.  Kershaw is the ace.  Greinke is the number 2 man.  Beyond that, there are questions, but the depth is truly impressive.  Josh Beckett is expected to be the number 3 man, which may play better to his talents at this point in his career.  He struggled in Beantown last year going 7-14 with a 4.65 ERA.  His K rate is down, his velocity is down and his WHIP and BAA were both well above average.  The concern is that Beckett, who was always a power pitcher, doesn’t know how to really pitch with his diminished stuff.  If all he can be is an innings eater, then that’s fine.  He’s getting paid more than an innings eater is worth, but that’s clearly not an issue for this team.  As long as he keeps the Dodgers in games, they will be happy with him.  Think, 10 Wins and an ERA around 4 with 170+ IP.  And if he bombs, there is a lot of depth behind him.  And if he’s great, then no one will complain.  The other wild card is Korean import Hyun-Jin Ryu.  He was an All Star in the KBO (Korean Baseball League) winning Rookie of the Year and MVP.  Players from the Asian markets aren’t always successful here, but Ryu has the size that others didn’t have (except for Darvish, who has been good in one year) and often their first year is their best year.  If that is the case here, then you have to like the way the Dodgers are built for 2013, clearly going for it all.  Even if Ryu and Beckett can’t get the job done, the Dodgers have the aforementioned Capuano (who was great last year) and Aaron Harang, who played well going 10-10 with a 3.61 ERA.  He wasn’t an All Star with a very high 1.40 WHIP and 246 BAA, but he kept the team in games while logging 179 IP.  That great starting rotation can feel good handing the game off to a strong bullpen featuring 2 closers in Brandon League and Kenley Jansen who had 31 Saves between them.  This team may not have the best pitching in the game, but they’ve got the deepest pitching, especially in the division.  With this staff supporting a great offense, I see the Dodgers winning a lot of games and contending in the NL West.

2013 Prediction:

The Dodgers were a good team last year.  They finished in second in the division, but outside of the playoffs.  This year, they got even better, and I think they can be good enough to get into the playoffs, if not win the division outright.  A lot of it depends on how the injuries go, but assuming they break the Dodgers way, then I think this team has to be a favorite to win the division.

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

San Francisco Giants 2013 Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Baseball is underway and you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  After starting with the AL West, I’ve knocked out the NL East and Central and will finish the Senior Circuit by examining the NL West, starting with last year’s World Series Champs, the San Francisco Giants.


San Francisco Giants:

Projected Starting Lineup

C-              Buster Posey
1B-            Brandon Belt
2B-            Marco Scutaro
SS-            Brandon Crawford
3B-            Pablo Sandoval
LF-            Gregor Blanco
CF-            Angel Pagan
RF-            Hunter Pence


Projected Batting Order

CF-            Angel Pagan
2B-            Marco Scutaro
C-              Buster Posey
3B-            Pablo Sandoval
RF-            Hunter Pence
1B-            Brandon Belt
SS-            Brandon Crawford
LF-            Gregor Blanco

Starting Rotation:
Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito

Bullpen:
Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla, Javier Lopez, Jose Mijares, Dan Runzler, George Kontos

What can you say about the Giants season last year?  It couldn’t have gone any better.  The goal for every team is to win the World Series, and the Giants were the only team out of the 30 who set that goal to achieve it.  They kept their formula of elite pitching with just enough offense going, and the offense performed better than they could have hoped for.  With that improved offense supporting one of the best pitching staffs in the game, the Giants executed exactly the way they drew it up, coming from behind on the brink of elimination twice in the playoffs and steam-rolling the Tigers in the Fall Classic.  The question is, can they do it again?

Offensively, this team runs through Buster Posey.  Posey was a rookie in 2010 when the Giants won their previous World Series, in fact he was the Rookie of the Year.  The next year he was hurt.  Then last year he was healthy and they won it all.  An argument can be made that as long as you have a full season of Buster Posey, then you will win the World Series.  It’s happened to every team that has had a healthy Posey.  And you can see why.  The NL MVP (not my pick…Braun had better numbers…but Giants fans are persuasive….see:  All Star Game, Ballot Stuffing, Examples of) was the triple crown winner in the Bay Area, leading the Giants with a  336 AVG, 24 HR and 103 RBI.  He did all that while being the catcher for a team with some of the best pitching in the majors.  This guy is someone worth building a team around.  And that’s what the Giants have done.  As long as he stays healthy (a big if with catchers) then we think he should be good for another 300+ year with 20 HR and 100 RBI.  But the truth is, we don’t know.  As celebrated as Posey is, he’s only had one full year in the majors.  In 2010 he was a called up mid-season and in 2011 they lost him mid-season.  So while we know he’s great, we don’t fully know what he’s capable of.  Perhaps last year was his best.  Perhaps it was his worst.  Perhaps that’s par for the course.  The fact is we don’t know.  But we know how talented he is, and I suspect we’ll see another strong season from him.  They need him to be great because the Giants had only 2 other players over 300, and neither was around for a full year.  The first was Melky Cabrera of the drug suspension.  He’s now a Blue Jay.  The second was Marco Scutaro, who hit 362 in his 61 games in San Fran.  He also chipped in 3 HR, 44 RBI and 40 R.  Adding what he did in Colorado in the first half, he was a 306 hitter with 9 HR, 74 RBI, 84 R and 9 SB.  That’s great production.  I doubt he’ll stay that hot, and leaving Coors Field always hurts your numbers, but I think he was a great addition to this team and will continue to perform at a high level.  Think 275+ AVG with 5-10 HR, 60+ RBI, 75+ R and 5-10 SBs.  Not an All Star, but a quality role player.  So with so few players hitting over 300, you’d think this team scored runs by the long ball.  Not the case.  They had the fewest HR in baseball with only 103 as a team.  Posey’s 24 led the bunch, but second place was literally half as much.  Pablo Sandoval hit 12 HR in 108 games and had second place on this team all wrapped up.  He still had a good season with those 12 jacks contributing to a 288 AVG, 63 RBI and 59 R, but the power outage is something to be concerned about.  Posey has 25 HR power.  Sandoval does as well (when healthy).  The only other player to hit double-digit homers was Melky Cabrera.  Hunter Pence hit 24 HR last year, but only 7 for the Giants.  That’s a major homer drought in the second half.  They need him to learn to hit for power in AT&T Park, or they are in real trouble.  Pence also had a 253 AVG last year, not great but solid for this team.  However that AVG only plays with some power.  He needs to get that power stroke back.  Without the power, the Giants have to score by manufacturing runs.  Speed helps with that, and they had some of that.  Angel Pagan led the team with 29 SB, which is good.  He also hit 288 and scored 95 R atop the lineup, and earned an extension.  However someone on the wrong side of 30 with a breakout season in his first year with a new team smells like someone who is due for a regression.  If that’s the case, the Giants are in trouble, as Pagan was key for manufacturing runs on this team.  Gregor Blanco stole 26 bases in 141 games.  He played a lot more than they planned for him to and right now he is looking like a starter for this team.  He’s got no power and hits for an unimpressive AVG (244 last year).  If he can get on base more, he could lead the team in steals.  But he’s got a soft bat and I don’t expect much of him offensively.  At first, Brandon Belt played solidly in his first full year, but also suffered from a lack of power.  His 275 AVG was nice, but they need more than 7 HR from a first baseman.  This offense isn’t exciting and doesn’t inspire much confidence.  They manufacture runs, but a lot of it seems like it was done with smoke and mirrors.  The Giants need more consistency from their bats, and if they don’t get it they will have trouble defending their World Series crown.

Pitching wins championships.  I can’t think of a team that better epitomized that statement than the Giants last year.  Their offense was not good last year.  It was worse than it was in 2010 when they won it all.  That just meant that their pitching was that much better last season.  It began and ended with Matt Cain, who became their ace.  He earned a serious contract extension, pitched a perfect game and had a strong season to go with his electric stuff of the past few years.  Part of it was getting better offensive support, as his run support before last year was historically bad.  But most of it was just him.  He went 16-5 with a team leading 2.75 ERA and 193 Ks.  The 16 Wins were also a team high as was his 219 IP, 1.04 WHIP and 222 BAA.  He was the epitome of an ace.  And with even better run support (it was still lacking last season) he could have had 20 Wins.  With his makeup and ability, I see no reason to not pencil him in for 15+ Wins, with a sub 3 ERA and 175+ Ks in 200 IP.  The only thing that could de-rail him would be injury or continued offensive ineptitude.  On the other side of the spectrum, we have the man who held the title of ace before last season, Tim Lincecum.   Tim went 10-15 with a whopping 5.18 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 257 BAA.  He still had 190 Ks in 186 IP, but was not the Cy Young winner of the past.  His walks skyrocketed and hitters were able to get hits off him when they weren’t striking out.   By the end of the year they had moved him to the bullpen, where he was much better.  He’s got that goofy delivery and not a lot of size.  If something gets off, he becomes hittable.  But his curve still drops out like a trapdoor, and he knows how to win.  If he can keep guys off base and continue to strike guys out (which he’s always done at a high level) I think those numbers can normalize a bit.  I’m not thinking Cy Young level, but a drop in the walk rate should see him at 12+ Wins, a sub 4 ERA and 200 Ks in 200 IP.  It’s a big comeback for someone who struggled so much last year, but he’s just too talented to pitch like this again.  He’s a wildcard in this starting rotation.  The new number 2 man is likely Madison Bumgarner, who tied Matt Cain for the team lead with 16 Wins.  He also had 191 Ks in 208 IP while pitching to a 3.37 ERA.  His WHIP (1.11) and BAA (234) were very good, and I see no reason why he can’t do more of the same next year.  Similar to Cain, expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 Wins to go with 200 IP, 180+ Ks and a sub 4 ERA.  After him, we have Ryan Vogelsong who went 14-9 and matched Bumgarner’s 3.37 ERA.  He’s not the strikeout pitcher of his peers and his WHIP and BAA were closer to league average.  But we are talking about a back of the rotation starter who won 14 games last season.  That’s a lot to hope for this year, but somewhere in double digits is doable with an ERA around 4.  And Barry Zito rounds out this rotation with his massive contract overshadowing a very good 15-8 season.  He too had above average numbers in the WHIP and BAA categories, but his 184 IP helped keep the bullpen fresh, and he lucked into a nice number of wins.  Speaking of bullpen, the Giants have a lot of strong contenders in that bullpen, though no leader.  Bruce Bochy is planning on using a committee to close, though Sergio Romo should get first crack at it.  He took over for an injured Brian Wilson last year and notched 14 Saves and 23 Holds while keeping the job in the postseason.  His 1.79 ERA matched his miniscule 0.85 WHIP and 185 BAA.  However he wasn’t the Saves leader on this team.  Rather, Santiago Casilla and his 25 Saves led the ballclub.  He pitched to a 2.84 ERA with solid secondary numbers though not quite as good as Romo’s.  I’d guess he notches more Saves this year too, but will be number 2 behind Romo.  So he’ll also set up.  Those two lock down the 8th and 9th with Jeremy Affeldt for the 7th and a host of quality arms backing them up.  Again, pitching wins championships, and the Giants should have plenty of it to lead them back to the Promised Land this season.

2013 Prediction:

The Giants won it all last year.  Hard to find fault.  But they struggled in the playoffs and needed out of this world postseason performances to win the big prize.  They’d like it to be easier this year.  I don’t think it will be.  Their division is looking scary with a completely different Diamondback team and a full season of the high spending Dodgers to contend with.  If they can somehow find magic again, they could win it all.  But with their offensive struggles and pitchers due for a little regression, I think I’m picking them to finish second in the division and just outside of the playoffs.

Saturday, April 6, 2013

Chicago Cubs 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Baseball is here and you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I started with the AL West, knocked out the NL East and have now moved on to the NL Central.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the last team I’ll tackle in the NL Central will be the Chicago Cubs.


Projected Starting Lineup

C-            Wellington Castillo
1B-            Anthony Rizzo
2B-            Darwin Barney
SS-            Starlin Castro
3B-            Ian Stewart
LF-            Alfonso Soriano
CF-            David DeJesus
RF-            Nate Schierholtz

Projected Batting Order

SS-            Starlin Castro
CF-            David DeJesus
1B-            Anthony Rizzo
LF-            Alfonso Soriano
RF-            Nate Schierholtz
C-            Wellington Castro
2B-            Darwin Barney
3B-            Ian Stewart

Projected Starting Rotaation:
Jeff Smardzjia, Matt Garza, Edwin Jackson, Scott Feldman, Travis Wood, Carlos Villanueva

Bullpen:
Carlos Marmol, Shawn Camp, Kyuji Fujikawa, James Russell, Scott Baker, Hector Rondon

The Cubs are in a full re-building mode.  This team is moving from a big spending/under performing unit to a traditional player development group that wants to build from within and keep payroll under control.  Theo Epstein did it in Boston and had money to win some championships as the Red Sox got more successful.  Chicago is a major market and Epstein hopes to follow the same formula with the Wrigley bunch.  However, in the short term, this team isn’t expected to contend.  They struggled last year losing over 100 games.  They hope that won’t happen this year, but they will certainly struggle again as they are in the heart of a re-build. 

Young shortstop Starlin Castro is a great place to start with this club, and he was the leading hitter for this team at 283.  However this youngster has plenty of flaws.  He made the most outs and errors among shortstops last season.  He was also caught stealing the most.  He plays hard and goes all out.  A lot of people like that, but it leads to mistakes and plenty of frustration among Cubs fans.  But he still led the team in AVG and SB while slugging 14 HR, 78 RBI and scoring 78 R.  The power leader of this club was one of its older members, Alfonso Soriano.  He led the Cubs with 32 HR and 108 RBI.  While many lament Soriano and the contract he was given, now that he’s healthy he’s finally contributing again, even if it’s just as a power hitter.  That’s an improvement over being a complete bust.  He doesn’t steal bases anymore, though he still swiped 6 bags last year, but his 262 AVG wasn’t bad while slugging all those HR, driving in those runs and scoring 68 R for himself.  But the future for this club is starting to become clear.  Part of it is Castro.  The other part is Anthony Rizzo, who was a June call-up.  In what was essentially half a season, Rizzo hit 285 with 15 HR, 48 RBI, and 44 R.  If he kept that pace up for a full season we’d be looking at a 30/90/85 season for the young first baseman, and that’s great.  They let All Star Bryan LaHair go to Japan this offseason, so Rizzo is all set to start at first.  The rest of this team doesn’t inspire much confidence.  The Cubs signed Nate Schierholtz to a deal after he played decently in San Fran and Philly.  In 114 games, he went 257 with 6 HR, 21 RBI, 20 R and 3 SB.  His defense is okay.  He’s basically a stopgap until some younger players are ready to start in Wrigley.  Center fielder David DeJesus is viewed in the same way.  He was the starter in right last year, and hit 263 with 9 HR, 50 RBI, 76 R and 7 SB.  The speed is fading from this veteran, but he’s got a good glove, a solid bat and is a great clubhouse presence.  Soriano, Shierholtz and DeJesus are the veterans on this club, manning the outfield and guiding the youngsters on the clay.  Don’t be surprised if they are gone at the trade deadline.  Other than the guys I already mentioned, Ian Stewart is a mess over at third, Darwin Barney is pretty average at second and young catcher Wellington Castillo will try to build on a solid cup of coffee, with 5 HR in 52 games.  This offense isn’t too scary, and the guys about half the guys that could scare you a little might be gone from the Windy City if they do their jobs too well.

The Cubs may have finally found their ace in Jeff Samardzjia.  But when your ace leads the team with only 9 Wins, you know you’re gonna need more help.  He didn’t break double digits in Wins, but a full season of starts (he only made 28) could have gotten him there.  More impressive was his team leading 180 Ks in 174 IP.  His WHIP and BAA were a tick better than the league average and his 3.81 ERA (also the best of the Cubs) was nice as well.  Generally your ace has a slightly better ERA, but he did have over a strikeout an inning and played for a terrible team in an offensive park.  Samardzjia is one of the few bright spots on the North Side, and I’m not gonna nitpick about him.  Samardzjia may have been the hot name in Chicago last year, but Paul Maholm may have been the best pitcher.  He won 9 games in only 20 starts and paired that with 6 Losses before being traded to the Braves at the deadline.  He isn’t the strikeout pitcher that Samardzjia is, but he did have a 3.74 ERA, which could have been the team’s best had he stayed a Cub all season.  Ryan Dempster actually had the best ERA at 2.25 in 16 starts.  The record was unfortunate (5-5) and he fell apart in Texas.  But he was a beast in Chicago with a 1.04 WHIP, 210 BAA and 83 Ks in 104 IP.  But Epstien wisely cashed in on the strong first half numbers of Maholm and Dempster and sent them out of town.  That’s what you do when you re-build.  You send away older veterans for young prospects.  It was the right call.  Epstein would have done the same thing with Matt Garza if he could have stayed healthy.  He was 5-7 in 18 games, but had a nice 3.91 ERA and 96 Ks in 103 IP.  He also keeps his WHIP and BAA better than the league average, and if he pitches well in the first half this season we will almost certainly see him in another uniform, as the Cubs were actively shopping him.  So with Dempster and Maholm gone, and Garza likely to go with a good first half, who else can we expect to join Samardzjia atop the Wrigley Field bump?  Well newly signed Edwin Jackson expects to call Chicago home for a while after singing a 5-year deal this offseason.  Jackson has played all over but is still fairly young.  He’s not a star, but is generally able to stay healthy and log innings and Ks.  He struck out 168 in 189 IP last year, one of his weaker years in terms of strikeouts.  He also turned in a 4.03 ERA, which is higher than he’s used to as well.  His BAA and WHIP were pretty average, but if those numbers are a picture of what’s to come, he’ll be a leader in Chicago, though likely won’t see 10 wins with that performance on this team.  Travis Wood is also expected to log a number of starts after being second on the team with 26 starts last year.  He was solid with a 4.32 ERA.  His WHIP and BAA were better than average, so you could see that ERA drop a bit if he pitches like that this year.  All this is to say that there is actually some talent in the starting rotation, though nothing overly exciting.  These guys should keep the Cubs in games, but they likely won’t be winning too many.  The offense will be partly to blame, but an ugly bullpen is the real culprit.  Carlos Marmol is wild in the closers spot, and that may be the understatement of the year.  He walked 45 in 55 IP turning in a 1.54 WHIP despite a 200 BAA.  He also struck out 72 so his stuff is electric, but he just can’t control it.  If he continues to be a walk machine, Kyuki Fujikawa, a Japanese free agent who was a great closer in his country’s league, will likely be second in line.  Either way, there won’t be too many games to close as the bridge from starter to closer looks like the biggest hole of all in the Swiss cheese of a team the Cubs are sending out there.


2013 Prediction:

Not good.  Frankly, the Cubs don’t look much better than the Astros or Marlins.  But they’ve got less negativity surrounding them because they’ve got a proven winner who’s already performed one successful re-build in a major market guiding them.  That would be team President Theo Epstein.  In addition, we already see some of the pieces in place (Rizzo, Castro, Samardzjia) and last year they proved their commitment to the process, painful as it may be.  So all that is the good news.  The bad news is that this season they aren’t expected to be any better.  And next year probably won’t be their year either.  The Cubs are re-building to be a major force in the coming years.  But I’d be shocked if any of that future success manifested this season.