Projected Division Finish
1.
Boston Red Sox
2.
Toronto Blue Jays
3.
Baltimore Orioles
4.
Tampa Bay Rays
5.
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
2014 Finish: 77-85
(Fourth Place)
Projected Batting
Order My
Batting Order
CF Kevin
Kiermaier LF Desmond Jennings
RF Steven Sousa DH David DeJesus
SS Asdrubal
Cabrera SS Asdrubal Cabrera
3B Evan Longoria 3B Evan Longoria
LF Desmond
Jennings C John Jaso
C John Jaso 1B James Loney
1B James Loney RF Steven Sousa
DH David DeJesus 2B Logan Forsythe
2B Logan Forsythe CF Kevin Kiermaier
Projected Starting
Rotation/Closer
RHP Chris
Archer
RHP Nathan
Karns
RHP Jake
Odorizzi
RHP Matt
Andriese
LHP Drew
Smyly
CLOSER Jake
McGee
The Rays are always on the verge of re-building due to their
financial limitations. They seem to be
in a re-building mode right now, but still have some young, quality players on
their squad and hope it won’t take too long to be good again. With their pitching, I think they could be
competitive this year though I suspect they will not really be in contention
for the playoffs this season. Losing Joe
Maddon and Andrew Friedman hurts as that manager/GM combo found the magic touch
for making this financially strapped team competitive in the highest priced
division in baseball. Its frustrating
for Rays fans because this division has never looked more winnable, and now it
looks like the Rays are taking a step back.
Also, their once vaunted farm system looks thinner than it has in
years. We’ll have to see how the Rays do
without their old brain trust, but most of the other front office/development
staff is still in place and nobody develops players, especially pitchers,
better than Tampa Bay. And as long as
they have pitching, they will be competitive.
Offense/Defense:
As is usually the case, the Rays struggled offensively in
2014. They hit 247 as a team and ranked
near the bottom half of the league in AVG, hits, HR and SB. Most telling, they tanked dead last in
R. If you can’t score, it’s hard to
win. The offense doesn’t look much more
intimidating this year.
The cornerstone of this offense is Evan Longoria. He’s struggled with injuries at times, but
has tried to put that behind him with 160 games played in 2013 and a full 162
last year. But that doesn’t mean he was
healthy. He dealt with nagging injuries
all year and refused to sit, realizing that without him this offense has nobody
pitchers are afraid of. The tradeoff was
one of his worst seasons in the majors:
253, 22 HR, 91 RBI, 83 R and 5 SB.
Those aren’t bad numbers at all, but it’s not what he is accustomed
to. He holds himself to a higher
standard and has to carry this offense, which means they need more. And while the HR, RBI and R numbers look
good, he still had a career low 724 OPS.
I’ll say this about Longoria, I never have thought of him as an elite
offensive performer. He’s never hit 300,
hasn’t driven in more than 100 runs since 2010 and has only reached
double-digit stolen bases once. That
being said, he can do a lot of things well and generally hits 20+ HR when he’s
healthy. That’s a quality offensive
player. Put him down for another season
of being pitched around which will result is lesser numbers. I’m thinking 260 with 20+ HR, 80+ RBI and 70+
R. Not bad at all, but not enough to
carry an offense..
The Rays signed Asdrubal Cabrera to play short and take some
of the offensive load off of Longoria.
He split his time between the Indians and Nationals last year and played
both short and second. He popped 14 HR,
stole 10 bases and hit 241 overall. For
a middle infielder, that’s good, but I don’t know if it will really provide
much incentive to pitch to Longoria.
He’s a career 267 hitter who has hit 14 or more HR the last four
years. I think he will be a good player
for Tampa Bay, but don’t think he’s really a game-changer. Put him down for an AVG around 250 with
double digit HR, 70+ RBI and 60+ R. Toss
in 8-10 SB as well.
I think one of the keys to the Rays offense is going to be
Desmond Jennings. He has never lived up
to his potential, but has skills. The
problem is, he doesn’t seem to play to his skills. He’s a speedy guy, but has a career 248 AVG
and 327 OBP. He’s got some pop, but
doesn’t play in a park that is conducive to power hitting. Right now, he’s hitting 5th or 6th
in the middle of the lineup because he wants to hit for power. That’s a mistake. They have to turn him into a leadoff hitter
if they want to be successful. Hitting
in the middle of the order limits his greatest asset, his speed. Last year he stole a career low 15
bases. I’d put him in the leadoff hole
and make him work it out since this is likely a lost year. I don’t think it will happen though. I’m thinking 245 with 10 HR, 18 SB and about
50 RBI, not at all what the Rays need from him.
After those three players, there is really no one else that
will have a major impact on offense.
First baseman James Loney is a quality player, but has never become the
power hitter many hoped he would. He’s
generally good for 270 with an OBP around 400, 15 HR and 10 SB. That’s good, but not what you are generally
looking for from a first baseman.
Additionally, he is currently on the DL so the Rays are trying to get by
without him to start the season.
Catcher John Jaso has some legitimate pop. He hit 9 HR in only 307 ABs last year with
Oakland. He goes from one pitcher’s park
to another in Tampa, but if he hit in Oakland, the hope is he will hit in
Tampa. He’s a career 259 hitter, but hit
over 264 the last three seasons. When
Jaso returns from the DL, he will be the primary catcher and get extra ABs in
the DH spot to put his bat in the lineup.
The Rays hope he turns into a 15-20 HR guy, but there’s no
guarantee. I’m thinking 15 is likely his
ceiling with an AVG around 265 as he will have to make adjustments the more he
plays. If his stay on the DL stretches
on those numbers could take hit.
David DeJesus is one of the only veterans left on the team
this year. He is technically a fourth
outfielder, but I think he’ll find his way into some extra playing time as
either a DH or the guy who gets into the field to allow others to DH. He is a quality, left-handed bench player
with a career 278 AVG and a little pop left in his bat. He plays good defense, runs well despite his
age and has a professional approach at the plate. He won’t reach double digit HRs or steals
anymore, but he can chip in 5+ of both while hitting around 270 with an OBP
north of 350.
Nobody else on this team is proven to be a performer at the
big league level. Kevin Kiermaier has
plenty of talent in center field. He hit
263 with 10 HR and 5 SB last year in 108 games.
For a youngster, that’s very good.
He’s got to work on his approach on the bases as he was caught almost as
many times as he was safe (4 CS….5 for 9 overall). All young guys have to make adjustments and
mature, but I think he’s got a bright future with a decent OBP for a rookie
(315) and not an over abundance of Ks (71 in 33 AB). His second season may feature some growing
pains, but with a starting job and more ABs, 12-15 HR seems legitimate with
another 8-10 SB. And if has the ability
to make adjustments quickly, he could do more.
He’s off to a hot start right now.
So is right fielder Steven Souza. He’s got even less experience than Kiermaier
playing in only 21 games before this year.
You really cant’ put any expectations on anyone with that little
experience but he’s already surpassed his HR and SB totals from last year. After a slow first week, he’s playing better
and a lot of people think he can have a big year. If so, that’s great, but the Rays are just
hoping he gets some experience and can prove to be a valuable addition to their
future.
Logan Forsythe will likely get the lion’s share of the time
at second base. He’s got plenty of
experience, but has not proven himself to be more than a platoon player to this
point. I don’t expect much from him, an
AVG around 220 and maybe a handful of HRs.
If Tim Beckham or Ryan Brett can distinguish themselves in some way (and
Beckham is starting to), he may lose playing time. He’s nothing more than a stopgap at this
point.
Rene Rivera is the backup catcher, who will get more playing
time than most other backups. Jaso is
out right now, but also will get a lot of DH time, allowing Rivera to catch
more. He’s been a capable backup a long
time with great defensive ratings. But
last year he hit 11 HR in 103 games so there is hope he can produce more with
more playing time.
This offense won’t score a lot of runs. There are only two legitimate threats on this
team in Evan Longoria and Asdrubal Cabrera.
But Cabrera is only above average and while Longoria is good, he’s not
great. Loney and Jennings are good players
but neither has lived up to their potential.
There is youth on this team, but they aren’t proven players yet and this
year they will likely feature a lot of growing pains. So if the Rays are going to win ball games,
they will be low scoring ones.
The defense looks like it should be okay. James Loney is great at first and Evan
Longoria is above average at third.
Cabrera is bad at short, but Forsythe is fine at second. Beckham is good at short, despite his lack of
experience and Brett looks like he’ll be a good offensive piece. Desmond Jennings is much better in left than in
center. Souza is fantastic in
right. And Kiermaier is at least average
in center, but I think he’s better and being a young player he will continue to
improve. Jaso is fine behind the plate
and Rivera is great. DeJesus is good in
either corner outfield spot and can still play center in a pinch. This defense won’t win any awards, but they
have talent and depth.
Pitching:
As always, the Rays were carried by their pitching staff
last year. That being said, they weren’t
quite as good as they have been in the recent past and threw in the towel
halfway through the year and let their best pitcher, David Price go. They were 6th in the league with a
3.56 ERA. They gave up a lot of BBs, but
were second in the league in both Ks and WHIP because they are a staff of young
guys with great stuff. They will be a
little shorthanded this year and will definitely miss David Price. That being said, they should still be the
best pitching staff in the division.
The Rays have let David Price and James Shields go over the
last few seasons. They also will deal
with the loss of Matt Moore (for the majority of the year), Alex Cobb, Alex
Colome, Jake McGee and Drew Smyly who have all started the year on the DL.
With all the injuries, Chris Archer starts the year as the
ace. He’s got the stuff to be a true ace
and had a good season last year. He went
10-9 with a 3.33 ERA last season. He’s
not a huge strikeout guy, but may grow into one with 173 Ks in 194 IP. He’s still young and making adjustments as
his 1.28 WHIP and 243 BAA were fairly pedestrian. But he’s got great stuff and should be a
quality starter on this team for years.
Think another 10 Wins, even with the limited offense behind him. 200 IP is a possibility with 180+ Ks and an
ERA around 3.20.
Jake Odorizzi is one of the many highly touted young arms
for Tampa Bay. Added in the James
Shields deal, Odirizzi got his most major league action last season with 31
starts. He went 11-13 with a 4.13
ERA. His WHIP was a little higher than
the MLB average and his BAA right around it.
Most impressive was his 174 Ks in 168 IP. He’s still young and has a lot to learn. But he has great stuff and is well on his
way. I’m putting him down for
double-digit wins, though perhaps another losing record. Expect that ERA to dip below 4 and with 180
IP we could see 200 Ks.
The rest of the starting rotation is currently made up of
fill-in pieces. Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb
will certainly return to the starting rotation when healthy and Alex Colome
would like to join them, but he’ll have to outpitch all three of the guys
currently on the staff. Matt Moore would
also like to be back this year, but if the Rays are struggling, I don’t see the
point in rushing him back.
Until then Nathan Karns will get some starts. Coming into 2015, he’s got only 5 to his
name. Last year, he made 2 starts going
1-1 with a 4.50 ERA. He’s got as many Ks
as IP and had a sparkling 0.92 WHIP and 163 BAA. Why the high ERA with those numbers? He gives up a lot of HR and more walks than
he should. If he can avoid that he could
be a solid starter. But if not, he
won’t keep his job as the Rays get their original starters healthy again.
Matt Andriese is another fill-in. He’s got 1 start and 1 relief appearance to
his name. I have no idea what he’ll do,
but he’s another young guy with pretty good stuff that should become a major
leaguer at some point. It’s happened sooner
than many thought, but he will only keep his job if he’s successful.
Erasmo Ramirez has the most experience of the fill-in guys
from his time in Seattle. But he was a
subpar pitcher in one of the best pitching environments in baseball. Last year he was 1-6 with a 5.26 ERA and lost
his starting job. They’d love to see the
Ramirez of 2012 who had a 3.36 ERA in 8 starts and 8 relief appearances. But with his AVG, WHIP and BAA rising each
season, the Rays aren’t expecting much.
He will almost certainly go to the bullpen or to the minors when Cobb
and Smyly return.
Cobb has been great in his short career. His last two seasons were his best as he
pitched to a sub 3 ERA and won double-digit games both years with good winning
records. His career WHIP and BAA are
both better than the league average. I
think he’ll be productive upon his return, but don’t know how long he’ll be out
so I have no idea what his numbers will be.
Smyly is in a similar spot, but may have a higher
ceiling. He’s always been a good pitcher
in Detroit, but Tampa is a better place to pitch and that coaching staff made
him better, turning him into more of a strikeout guy. He’s 43-19 in 114 career starts with a 3.26
ERA. That’s great, but if he becomes a
better strikeout guy he could be elite.
I love his future and think he could turn into a 200 K guy. His numbers for this year are cloudy because
I don’t know how long he’ll be out.
This starting staff could be great. Until it’s fully healthy however, they are
just average with a lot of unproven commodities. Luckily, they have a strong bullpen to
support them even with closer Jake McGee on the DL. Until he returns, Brad Boxberger has been
closing and should be a solid option in that role. Boxberger is coming off a season where he had
18 Holds and a 2.37 ERA in 63 games. He
struck out 104 in 64 IP. While he
doesn’t have a lot of closing experience, he’s got the stuff to be successful
for a short time, if not longer. When
McGee returns, he will setup and has proven he can be great in that role.
Kevin Jepsen and Ernesto Frieri are veteran arms with good stuff
in the Rays pen. Frieri even has closing
experience, although he’s been better as a setup man. They complement the other arms in the pen,
many of which are young. When the
starting rotation gets back to full strength, the bullpen may get an upgrade
with some of the fill-in starters moving to relief roles. McGee was a very good closer last year with
19 Saves and 14 Holds after taking over the job part way through the
season. He struck out 90 in 71 IP and
had a 0.90 WHIP and sparkling 189 BAA. I
can’t estimate his numbers because I don’t know how long he’ll be out. But I have no doubt he’ll be successful after
he returns and settles back in to his role.
This pitching staff is very strong. However, it’s not as good as it has been in
recent years. They are trying to
overcome the loss of David Price and all the injuries on the staff. They will keep the Rays in a lot of games and
get them some wins in spite of their offense.
While they may be the best pitching staff in the division, they aren’t
as good as they have been in the past and likely aren’t good enough to carry
this team to the playoffs.
Prediction:
The Rays are in a tough spot. They have always had small windows for
success and impossible financial constraints.
However, there was always a trust in Friedman and Maddon that things
would be ok. Losing those two
hurts. In addition, the Rays lost Price,
Ben Zobrist, Matt Joyce and Wil Myers in the last year. I didn’t like this offense in the past and
like it less now. They will win some
games and be in all of them. But at the
end of the day, I don’t think they score enough to win a serious number of
games and don’t see them threatening to be a playoff team.
I’ll say 72 Wins and a fourth place finish in the
division. They will not factor in the
playoff hunt.