Monday, July 22, 2013

Minnesota Twins 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  The All Star Game has come and gone and I am breaking down my last team.  I started with the AL West, before knocking out the whole National League.  I then moved back to the AL East and into the AL Central.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the last AL Central (and last overall) team I’ll look at will be the Minnesota Twins.


Projected Starting Lineup

C-        Joe Mauer
1B-      Justin Morneau
2B-      Jamey Carroll
SS-      Pedro Florimon
3B-      Eduardo Escobar
LF-      Josh Willingham
CF-      Aaron Hicks
RF-      Chris Parmelee
DH-     Ryan Doumit

Starting Rotation:      Vane Worley, Kevin Slowey, Scott Diamond, Mike Pelfrey, Samuel Deduno

Bullpen:          Glenn Perkins, Brian Duensing, Jarred Burton, Casey Fein, Josh Roenicke, Ryan Pressly, Anthony Swarzak

Projected Batting Order

CF-      Aaron Hicks
2B-      Jamey Carroll
C-        Joe Mauer
1B-      Justin Morneau
LF-      Josh Willingham
DH-     Ryan Doumit
RF-      Chris Parmelee
3B-      Eduardo Escobar
SS-      Pedro Florimon

The Twins are in the unenviable position of being the worst team in the worst division in baseball.  That being said, they are not the worst team overall.  They are better than at least 2 other teams (Marlins, Astros) and are arguably better than a few more (Cubs, Mets, Padres).  But this team is clearly re-building.  They are a mid-market team with limited finances.  However a lot of their money is tied up in 2 players:  Mauer and Morneau.  With both healthy, this team is a challenge.  But at this point they are about the only hitters you worry about (though Josh Willingham has been good and better in Minnesota than just about anywhere else in his career).  They at least know their role as they are re-building with a lot of youngsters in the starting lineup and some young pitchers as well.  They have some other castoffs in the lineup as placeholders, but this team is really just focused on getting their young guys some playing time.  The expectations aren’t high, and that’s good.  Because this team doesn’t look ready to contend this year, or in the near future

This team was not the most frightening to behold at the plate last year.  The leading hitter was, unsurprisingly, Joe Mauer who hit 319.  Mauer has long been among the best pure hitters in the game.  However he’s not the all-around offensive threat that Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout are.  Mauer is a great hitter, however one with limited power.  Target Field is another limiting factor in the power categories.  He hit 10 HR last year, but still drove in 85 while scoring another 81 himself.  He’s the best offensive piece the Twins have and has played well into this season, scoring another All Star appearance.  The next best hitter from last year (besides the departed Ben Revere and Denard Span) was Mauer’s backup, Ryan Doumit.  But Doumit plays more than the average back up with Mauer playing at least once a week as a DH and spending time at first base.  Doumit approached 500 ABs last year in 134 games mainly catching but also taking his turn as the DH.  He hit 275 with 18 HR and 75 RBI.  Though both Doumit and Mauer are catchers, manager Ron Gardenhire gets them both into as many games as he can as they are among his best hitters.  The other big name for this offense is former MVP Justin Morneau who finally returned from concussion issues in 2012 to play in 134 games.  He wasn’t quite his old self hitting only 267, but he still popped 19 HR to go with 77 RBI.  His best years may be behind him, but he’s still a solid player.  However his 19 HR were only third on this team.  The leader was Josh Willingham who has been reborn in the Twin Cities.  Willingham hit 260 last year, but led the Twins with 35 HR and 110 RBI.  He did all that in the pitcher friendly Target Field.  He has transformed from a 4th outfielder to a must play with tremendous power in his last years in Oakland to his years in Minnesota.  He offers little else but power, but he’s prodigious with the home run ball.  I think expecting a repeat of those numbers would be a mistake, but he continues to outperform expectations, so 25+ HR is my new expectation.  I mentioned that Morneau was only third on this team in HR.  Willingham was first.  The number 2 man was Trevor Plouffe.  His 24 HR was a nice accomplishment, but it came with a 235 AVG and only 55 RBI.  He’s pulled that AVG up some this year, though his HR totals are lower.  But the Twins will happily take somewhere in the middle, as it will better serve the team.  The rest of this offense looks grim, as the guys above are far from perfect.  Jamey Carrol played a ton for Minnesota last year hitting 268 with no power or speed.  The veteran expects to do more of the same again this year for the Twins.   The rest of this team has little experience with 64 games from right fielder Chris Parmelee last year being the tops among what’s left.  Those 64 games were unremarkable.   The Twins hope that the likes of Aaron Hicks, Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Florimon will bloom into major league hitters, but expect to take a few bumps along the way.  And they certainly are.  This team is currently last in the standings and the offense is a big reason why.  There are a few talented players on this team, but all are getting older and none of them are very complete hitters.  The future for this team, unfortunately, is the players who are struggling at the bottom of the lineup.  But the Twins have a good farm system and hop getting those guys some experience will help the team improve overall for the future.

As much as the offense was a disappointment, the pitching staff might be worse.  Scott Diamond led the team with 12 Wins and a 3.54 ERA last year.  Francisco Liriano’s 109 Ks were another team high.  None of those numbers are good enough to lead a team.  And this is where the Twins expect to see the most struggles.  Diamond is back with the rotation after his 12-9 showing with a 3.54 ERA.  Those numbers are fine.  He did that in 27 starts turning in a WHIP right around the league average.  However his 274 BAA was way too high.  He doesn’t walk guys and hurt himself, but he’s not a power pitcher who may see some regression if he can’t figure out how to stop opposing hitters from reaching base via the hit.  He’s one of the few holdovers from last year’s staff to this year.  Samuel Deduno is the only other one and he was not as great, though Diamond was hardly an ace.  Deduno was 6-5 in 15 starts with a 4.44 ERA.  5th starter numbers as he walks too many guys with a sky high WHIP and league average BAA.  Those guys are expected to help eat innings and keep the team in games, and they both have done that this year, with Deduno actually posting far superior numbers to the struggling Diamond.  The rest of the staff is new.  Mike Pelfrey was signed after a year lost to injury with the Mets.  He looked good through is first 3 starts in 2012, but the injury derailed him.  It may have effected him more than he realizes as he’s struggled in Minnesota this year going 4-7 with a 5.40 ERA.  Target Field isn’t that much better of a hitters park than Citi Field, but the move to the AL always hurts NL guys, not to mention the cold.  The Opening Day starter was Vance Worley who went 6-9 in Minnesota with a 4.20 last year.  He headed to Minnesota in the offseason for Ben Revere and fell apart.  He was 1-5 with a 7.21 before being demoted to Triple A.  The struggles are for real with this youngster and he was replaced by Kevin Correa in the rotation.  Not exactly a world beater himself, Correa was 12-11 with a 4.21 in Pittsburgh last year and has pitched similarly in the Twin Cities with a 7-6 record and 4.19 ERA this year.  He’s an innings eater who can keep you in games.  That’s the starting staff.  It’s not very good.  It’s got some old guys and some struggling guys.  It lacks youth and success.  That’s going to be the biggest hurdle in Minnesota this year.  The bullpen isn’t too bad with All Star Glenn Perkins anchoring the group as a closer.  He has gone 23 for 25 this year with a 1.72 after going 16 for 20 last year with a 2.56.  The rest of the bullpen is unremarkable, but not overly bad or good.  Casey Fien’s 2.88 ERA the best amongst the rest as this team gets a lot of innings from the bullpen, making up for the struggles with the starting rotation.

This Twins team is in full re-building mode.  They have a lot of youngsters already starting in the field for them.  The few veterans they have may be hitting the market and we could see Morneau, Willingham and Doumit move to new teams at the trade deadline.  The only holdover will be local Joe Mauer, whose contract is likely too big to move anyway.  This is a mid-market team with limited resources and a ton of money tied up in a catcher.  The re-build will take a while.  But their farm system features some talent, including Brian Buxton who was drafted last year.  If they can continue to season their offense and see some young pitchers make the jump, they have a shot at contending again.  But that’s very far down the line as the present and near future look bleak for the Twins.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Cleveland Indians 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  We are approaching the All Star break and I’m almost done with my team breakdowns.  I started with the AL West, before moving to the Senior Circuit and knocking out the whole NL.  I then returned to the AL, breaking down the East and have made my way to the AL Central.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the fourth AL Central team I’ll take a look at will be the Cleveland Indians.


Projected Starting Lineup

C-        Carlos Santana
1B-      Nick Swisher
2B-      Jason Kipnis
SS-       Asdrubal Cabrera
3B-      Lonnie Chisenhall
LF-       Michael Brantley
CF-      Michael Bourn
RF-      Drew Stubbs
DH-     Mark Reynolds

Starting Rotation:      Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jiminez,  Zach McAllister Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Scott Kazmir

Bullpen:          Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith, Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, Rich Hill, Matt Albers

Projected Batting Order

CF-      Michael Bourn
2B-      Jason Kipnis
C-        Carlos Santana
DH-     Mark Reynolds
1B-      Nick Swisher
SS-       Asdrubal Cabrera
RF-      Drew Stubbs
3B-      Lonnie Chisenhall
LF-       Michael Brantley

Cleveland is in a tricky area.  They’ve had strong first halves the past 2 years, but generally aren’t considered a good team.  It seems like they’re stuck between trying to build up and go for it now, or trying to re-build and get younger.  This offseason, they kept their core together to stay young, but added some talented players to win now.  However most of the guys they added aren’t that old and have plenty of life left in them.  Manager Terry Francona was one of the biggest new additions, and he has this team playing above themselves.  And while Detroit may be the team to beat, this team has talent and this division is weak.  They will make a run at the top, but could play well enough to find themselves in the thick of the wildcard race come playoff time.

Last year’s Indians weren’t that impressive.  At the plate, their leading hitter was Michael Brantley, who hit 288.  And while that number was good, it wasn’t great.  And it came with more numbers of the same vein:  6 HR, 60 RBI, 63 R and 12 SB.  He’s a fine hitter.  But nowhere near a star.  Not even an All Star really.  Slugging catcher Carlos Santana led the team in HR (18) and RBI (76) but both of those numbers were also too soft to be leading a team.  He paired that with a 252 AVG to show that he wasn’t a complete hitter last year either.  I don’t mean to pick on either of these guys as they clearly aren’t the problem, but since they were the best Cleveland had then they illustrate the problem well.  This offense just lacked pop.  Shin Soo Choo’s 16 HR were tied for second on the list, but he was shipped of to Cincinnati.  He tied with Asdrubal Cabrera who also slugged 16 HR.  He’s another one of the few strong pieces, adding a 270 AVG to those 16 HR with 68 RBI and 70 R.  And 9 SB.  He does it all.  Probably the best offensive player on this team last year was Jason Kipnis who only hit 257 but chipped in 14 HR, 76 RBI, 86 R and 31 SB.  That’s their core.  It’s solid.  Good even.  Kipnis and Santana are among the tops at their positions.  But Cabrera and Brantley can’t make the same claims.  Lonnie Chisenhall was supposed to be a major part of this core also, but injuries limited him to 43 games and he has been unable, thus far,  to live up to his potential.  That’s the core the Indians are building around offensively.  It’s not great.  The rest of their offense was rounded out with Travis Hafner, Casey Kotchman, Shelley Duncan, Matt LaPorta, Jack Hannahan and Brent Lillibridge. Not names that strike fear into the hearts of many.  So the Indians added some pieces.  The added Drew Stubbs and Michael Bourn to the outfield.  They added Mark Reynolds to the infield.  They decided Lou Marson would catch more often to give Santana more at bats at DH (he also plays first).  They brought in Nick Swisher to play first.  And they now have a strong team with a lot of lineup possibilities.  They can have Swisher at first, Kipnis at second, Cabrera at short, Reynolds at third and an outfield of Brantley, Bourn and Stubbs.  This enables Marson to catch and Santana to DH.  Or Santana DHs and they add Jason Giambi to the mix at DH.  Or Reynolds DHs with Hannahan or Chisenhall at third.  And Mike Aviles is around to back up the middle infield with Ryan Raburn.  This is an offense with some talent all of a sudden.  Bourn is one of the premier leadoff hitters in the game.   He hit 274 last year with 96 R and 42 SBs.  That came with a 348 OBP.  That’ll play.  He’s played well when healthy this year at 285 with 13 SBs and 37 R.  That’s a good start at the top of the order.  Stubbs provides 20 HR power to go with 40 SB speed.  He likely will reach neither plateau, but his 246 AVG is much more than the Indians hoped for (213 last year).  Nick Swisher has been solid with 9 HR this year.  He’s off the 24 HR pace he set last year, but those HR numbers were juiced by the little league dimensions of the new Yankee stadium.  Mark Reynolds has had a monster first half with 15 dingers and 47 RBI.  He’s still hitting 217, but that was to be expected.  He’s on pace to obliterate his mark of 23 HR from last year.  This group of guys is imperfect, but they are playing well.  Francona knew he didn’t have the best offense, but he needed some guys that would at least scare pitchers occasionally.  And that’s what he’s got.  With all the flexibility these guys have position-wise he can ride the hot hand and get some pop from the big boppers while protecting his core pieces that can do more at the plate (Santana, Kipnis).  His offense has got it all with power (Santana, Swisher, Kipnis, Cabrera, Reynolds, and Stubbs), speed (Kipnis, Bourn, Stubbs) and solid hitters (Santana, Kipnis, Cabrera, Brantley, Bourn).  Few of them can do it all.  But a lot of them can do part of it.  And this offense is a big reason why the Indians are only 2.5 games back halfway through the season.

However this offense’s successes haven’t rubbed off on the pitching staff as much as the Indians would like.  This year’s group closely resembles last year’s group, with most of the offseason makeover coming at the plate.  Justin Masterson was the ace of the staff last year, leading the team with 11 Wins, a 4.93 ERA and 159 Ks.  Those numbers are all fine, but none are nearly good enough to be leading a staff.  Unfortunately that’s what the Indians have.  Masterson is a good pitcher, and obviously isn’t the problem.  But he’s not an ace.  He’s more like a number 3 guy.  Maybe a number 2.  But, he’s playing much better this season, going 10-7 in the first half with a 3.72 ERA.  He’s doing all he can do, but he’s going to need some help.  The Indians would love to see that help come from Ubaldo Jiminez, who they acquired from the Rockies the season after his career best campaign in Coors Field.  But Jiminez has been unable to reclaim that magic going 9-17 last year with a 5.40 ERA.  His K rate dropped while his WHIP and BAA climbed for a second straight year.  They thought they were getting an ace in him, but he has been nothing but a disappointment.  He’s playing better this year at 7-4 with a 4.37, but he’s still a long way off from the ace he was for the first half of that year in Colorado.  The good news is that he’s lowered his WHIP a lot and dropped his BAA to around the league average while raising his K rate.  He’s got the stuff.  He just has to find his way back.  Of last year’s starters, Jiminez and Masterson were the only pitchers on the Indians who qualified for the ERA title.  No other pitcher made it to 23 starts, with only 2 more earning 20 starts.  Of those 2, 1 is gone (Derek Lowe) and the other is on the DL (Zach McAllister).  Unfortunately McAllister has been one of Cleveland’s better starters going 4-5 with a 3.43 in 11 starts.  When he gets healthy, he’ll be back in the rotation.  The Indians began to address their pitching concerns with the big trade that brought them Drew Stubbs and sent Shin Soo Choo to Cincinnati.  That actually was only part of the trade.  The Diamondbacks got involved, getting Didi Gregorious from the Reds and sending some relievers to Cleveland, along with Trevor Bauer, the Indians real prize.  However Bauer has been limited to only 4 starts due to injury, going 1-2 with a 5.29.  Not exactly the savior Cleveland was hoping for.  So while McAllister and Bauer get better, the Indians have been getting starts from Corey Kluber and the veteran Scott Kazmir, who was given another shot at the big leagues.  Kluber’s been great at 7-5 with a 3.88.  He’s struck out 94 in 95 IP while pitching to a 1.24 WHIP.  He keeps runners off base via the walk, which is good because hitters are hitting 262 off him, a tad high.  But he keeps the team in games and has been invaluable to this rotation.  Kazmir hasn’t been as good but is still eating innings that need to get pitched.  He hasn’t been bad, going 4-4 with a 4.74.  But he’s another middle of the rotation arm, of which the Indians have many.  And that’s there problem right now.  The pitching isn’t bad, it’s just limited.  Kazmir has no upside, Masterson has pitched the same for years so we don’t expect him to get much better, Jiminez hasn’t been good for years and the rest of these guys are young.  They need an ace.  Until they get that leader to pitch the big games and inspire the others, this pitching staff will be solid, but unspectacular.  The bullpen is possibly less spectacular.  There are some role guys who have pitched well, but some of the big names (Perez, Pestano) aren’t playing well.  Perez hasn’t been too bad, only blowing 2 Saves, but his ERA is too high for a closer and he has walked a ton of guys.  That’s not good.  And Pestano pitched himself out of the 8th inning role.  So that puts more pressure on these starters to play well, because the bullpen isn’t the safest bet right now.  And despite the weakness of their division and possible strengths in their offense, this team won’t make it deep into October (or possibly even in the playoffs at all) with this pitching staff.

The Indians are, like the White Sox, at a crossroads.  They have some talent on offense and play in a weak division.  But they lack an ace, aren’t the perfect offense that can overcome that and have questions in the bullpen.  They have some youth, but some key positions are currently staffed by players on the latter half of their careers.  Terry Francona wants to win now and has this team believing they can.  It’s admirable.  But they’ll never catch Detroit and will have to play well against stronger non-divisional opponents to snag a wildcard spot.  If they can hold off the Royals, perhaps whip up on the bottom of their division, and see the teams of the other divisions beat each other up enough, then maybe the Indians could sneak into the playoffs.  But any talk of championships is still a distant ways off.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Kansas City Royals 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  We are almost to the All Star break, and I can see the light at the end of the tunnel as I finish up my last 3 team breakdowns.  I started with the AL West before changing tacks and doing the NL.  I then moved back to knock out the AL East and am now on the AL Central.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using those final standings, the third AL Central team I’ll look at will be the Kansas City Royals.

Projected Starting Lineup

C-        Salvador Perez
1B-      Eric Hosmer
2B-      Chris Getz
SS-       Alcides Escobar
3B-      Mike Moustakas
LF-       Alex Gordon
CF-      Lorenzo Cain
RF-      Jeff Francoeur
DH-     Billy Butler

Starting Rotation:      James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Wade Davis, Ervin Santana, Luis Mendoza

Bullpen:          Greg Holland, Kelvin Hererra, Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Aaron Crow, Tim Collins, Louis Coleman, J.C. Guitierrez

Projected Batting Order

LF-       Alex Gordon
SS-       Alcides Escobar
1B-      Eric Hosmer
DH-     Billy Butler
3B-      Mike Moustakas
C-        Salvador Perez
RF-      Jeff Francouer
2B-      Chris Getz
CF-      Lorenzo Cain

After over a decade of struggling and encouraging their fans to be patient, the Royals decided that this was the year.  GM Drayton Moore, some say trading for his job, decided that this group of hitters was ready to compete now.  And with no immediate upgrades to the starting group available in his rotation, he mortgaged the future for success right now.  He traded talented prospect Wil Myers to the Rays in exchange for an ace in the form of James Shields, big game James as he’s called occasionally.  He also got Wade Davis back from Tampa in that trade to join Ervin Santana, formerly of the Angels as back of the rotation veteran arms.  They joined Jeremy Guthrie and Shields and enabled Moore to move his two best starters from last season, Bruce Chen and Luke Hochevar, to the bullpen to get them to closer Greg Holland.  He hopes all this depth will give him enough pitching to support what he believes will be a stout offense.  He sees that the division is weak and thinks that this is the time for the Royals to make a move.  Despite the Tigers sitting at the top of this division the past few years, the Royals think they can at least make a run at the wildcard, beating up on the Twins and White Sox and hoping they are better than the Indians.  If this works, Drayton Moore will be viewed as a genius.  If not, then he’ll likely be looking for a new job, which was a real possibility for him even if he just met the status quo.

Last year’s Royals squad was better, but still not good enough.  It was frustrating for fans, because they saw all these great young hitters and thought this was what they were waiting for.  But K.C. was still nowhere near the playoffs in 2012.  However that wasn’t the offense’s fault.  Veteran Billy Butler, the blue-collar local hero of the Kansas City, led the team offensively.  The DH won the team Triple Crown with the best AVG (313), most HR (29) and RBI (107).  He’s a great hitter, with a 373 OBP, 510 SLG and 882 OPS.  He doesn’t play in the field, but at the plate he is a complete hitter.  Behind the plate, Salvador Perez was a pleasant find.  He hit 302 in 76 games with 11 HR and 39 RBI.  They think he can slug 25 in a full season, and 2013 is his first chance to see full season action.  The most complete hitter on this team is recently named All Star, Alex Gordon.  He does a little bit of everything in the leadoff spot.  He hit 294 last year with 14 HR, 72 RBI, 93 R and 10 SB.  His job is to get on and score runs, which he did well as evidenced by his 93 R and 368 OBP.  He also brings some pop and speed to the table, not to mention Gold Glove caliber defense in left field.  Right behind him on the AVG list and in the batting order was shortstop Alcides Escobar. Escobar was part of the Greinke return, and really put together his best season yet in K.C.  Mainly batting out of the 2 hole, he hit 293 with 5 HR, 52 RBI, 68 R and a whopping 35 SB.  That speed was great, as was his defense.  The Royals think they have quite a find in him.  So with the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th hitters playing well offensively, you have to wonder what went wrong in this order.  The issues, as you might have guessed, came from the 3rd and 5th spots in the order, or Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, respectively.  Two of the youngest, and most highly touted prospects in this organization, Hosmer and Moustakas looked good in their rookie seasons.  Of the two, Hosmer looked better.  But he struggled the most last year with a 232 AVG.  He was able to crack 14 HR and drive in 60.  That was okay, but not for a number 3 hitter.  The AVG was partly to blame.  The only thing he did well was steal 16 bags and play good defense.  That’s not what they brought him up to do.  They wanted him to hit 3rd, a premier spot in their lineup.  His rookie season had so much promise.  They desperately need him to bounce back in 2013.  And while he started just as cold, he’s heated up recently, and if the Royals are going to make any noise this season then Hosmer will be a major reason.  Moustakas was also highly touted, but didn’t impress quite as much in his rookie year.  But don’t feel bad, he also didn’t struggle quite as much last year.  However he still didn’t play the way they thought he would.  He hit 242 with 20 HR, 73 RBI, 69 R and 5 SB.  The power was nice, but they thought that AVG should have been much higher.  With 20 HR it was still a good year, but they’d love to see more from him.  His struggles have intensified this year as he’s still not playing well, and doesn’t even have the prodigious power to fall back on.  They hope he can turn it on.  Moving to the outfield, you will find center fielder, Lorenzo Cain.  Cain is an exciting player with great wheels and a great glove.  But being unable to steal first has limited his game thus far.  He was okay last year with a 266/7/31/37/10 line, but is a bottom of the lineup bat at this point in his career, which limits his RBI and R potential.  He’ll likely hit 9th a lot.  The plan before the season was to have right fielder Jeff Francoeur hit 7th and Chris Getz man second base and hit 8th.  But Getz has only appeared in 47 subpar games before an injury took him away and Francoeur played poorly enough to end up being released last week.  So the Royals adapted.  Getz is being replaced by a combo of Johnny Giovatella and Elliot Johnson.  None of the three players does much at the plate, so it’s not a big loss.  But the Royals are disappointed with the way Francoeur struggled.  He’s only 2 years removed from a 20/20 campaign, is one of the few veterans on the team and still has the best outfield arm in the game.  They wanted it to work out, but it just didn’t.  Hitting 203 with only 2 HR will not help you keep many jobs in baseball.  David Lough and Jarrod Dyson will both step in to fill his shoes out in right.  And that’s the Royals offense.  Some strong pieces.  A lot of potential.  But not as much production as they need, some obvious holes and a serious lack of experience.  This offense has stagnated with a number of hitters fighting through early season struggles.  There also seems to be no depth or bottom of the lineup pop.  The offense is good enough, but not great and very limited.

That means the Royals really need their pitching to step up.  And that was the area GM Drayton Moore addressed this offseason.  Only 1 of the 3 pitching leaders from last year’s team is back in the rotation this season.  Bruce Chen and his team leading 11 Wins are in the bullpen.  Luke Hochevar’s 144 Ks have joined him.  Only Luis Mendoza and his team best 4.23 ERA warranted a rotation slot, albeit the number 5 spot.  And he’s pitched like a number 5 this year, going 2-3 with a 4.87.   He’s not a great arm with limited strikeout potential who puts too many guys on base. But that’s why he’s the 5th starter.  And Chen and Hochevar are now spot starters and long arms in the bullpen. That should be good for both of them.  The new ace of the staff is James Shields, who came over with Wade Davis from Tampa Bay for highly touted prospect Wil Myers.  So far, the Royals area pleased with their investment, though his lack of run support is almost criminal.  Last year Shields was 15-10 with a 3.52 ERA in an astounding 227 IP.  He struck out 223 in that time.  The year before was even better at 16-12 with a 2.82.  He’s only 4-6 so far this year, but halfway through the season he’s already got 129 IP and 112 Ks.  He’s pitching to a 3.12 ERA.  He puts too many men on base, but is well on his way to another 220 IP/200 K season where he leads a staff.  No other pitcher jumps out as a number 2 man, though the next 3 guys on the staff are all better than number 4 starters.  So let’s call them all number 3 men.  The first of those guys is Jeremy Guthrie, who hasn’t played as well this year as the Royals hoped. He’s 8-6, but his 4.12 ERA is higher than they would have liked.  So is his WHIP and BAA.  He was great in 14 starts for K.C. last year with a 3.16 ERA.  If he can find his way back to being that pitcher than this team has a much better shot of getting into the playoff hunt.  If not, then they’ll continue to sit just outside the race.  On the other side of things, Ervin Santana has pitched much better than anyone could have expected.  Perhaps the biggest question mark of the offseason acquisitions, Santana has been great.  His 5-5 record is unfair as his 2.90 ERA has been nothing short of brilliant.  He’s struck out 94 in 118 IP, pitching to a 1.05 WHIP while holding hitters to a 226 BAA.  If the Royals do make it to October, he’ll be a major reason why.  The last starter on this team is big Wade Davis, who has probably struggled the most of all.  A back-end starter in Tampa, Davis was the forgotten piece in the Shields deal.  However he was still good enough to pitch in the K.C. rotation, banishing the other starters to the bullpen.  But 18 starts in, Davis is 4-8 with a 5.89.  Ouch.  I guess not much was expected, but you have to think Hochevar or Chen would be better.  He’s out on paternity leave right now, so maybe one of them will get a chance to send him to the bullpen.  However right now the Royals bullpen is playing very well, so maybe you don’t want to mess with it.  Hochevar and Chen are both pitching with sub 2.50 ERAs while closer Greg Holland has 22 Saves with a 1.80 ERA.  Add in former All Star Aaron Crow, and that may be the best part of this team.  And with the offense and starters struggling and inconsistent, it will have to be as good in the second half of the season as it was in the first half.  A daunting proposition, as they were so good before the All Star break.

This Royals team is, once again, VERY close to contention.  They have a talented core of hitters.  They have a strong bullpen.  They have a few good starters.  But perhaps they aren’t quite there yet.  The offense is talented, but young, inexperienced and prone to streakiness.  The pitching staff has some good pieces, but perhaps lacking a strong number 2 and some starting depth.  They are once again so close that it hurts.  But they are not, in my opinion, a playoff team yet.  This will cause a lot of fans to call for the GM’s head, but I think that’s a mistake.  He did trade away a future talent for a current stud, but that stud is playing well.  And this team would not be as close as it is to contention if not for Shields’ presence.  This team got an ace in that deal, one of the rarest commodities in baseball.  And while they would love to see Myers in their outfield, they can deal with the guys they have there.  Missing Shields would leave their pitching staff lightyears behind where it currently sits.  The Royals could still make the playoffs this year.  Or they may not.  Moore could lose his job.  Or he could keep it.  But no matter what happens, he brought this team very close to contention.  If he’s around the next few years, he’ll reap the benefits.  If someone else is, then someone else will reap the benefits of Moore’s work.  But all that is secondary.  The takeaway is this….almost there Royals fans.  Just a little more patience, if you’ve got any left.

Monday, July 8, 2013

Chicago White Sox 2013 Team Breakdown



Well it’s that time.  Baseball is in full swing.  As we approach the All Star Break, I’m trying to finish my team breakdowns.  I started with the AL West before knocking out the entire NL.  I then knocked out the AL East and am finishing up with the AL Central.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the second AL Central team I’m look at will be the Chicago White Sox.


Projected Starting Lineup

C-        Tyler Flowers
1B-      Paul Konerko
2B-      Gordon Beckham
SS-      Alexei Ramirez
3B-      Jeff Keppinger
LF-      Dayan Viciedo
CF-      Alejandro de Aza
RF-      Alex Rios
DH-     Adam Dunn

Starting Rotation:      Chris Sale, Jake Peavy, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Dylan Axelrod

Bullpen:                   Addison Reed, Matt Thornton, Jesse Crain, Nate Jones, Matt Lindstrom, Ramon                Tronsco, Hector Santiago

Projected Batting Order

CF-      Alejandro de Aza
LF-      Dayan Viciedo
DH-     Adam Dunn
1B-      Paul Konerko
RF-      Alex Rios
SS-      Alexei Ramirez
3B-      Jeff Keppinger
C-        Tyler Flowers
2B-      Gordon Beckham

The White Sox are more in the middle than possibly any team in baseball.  Generally, you have talent to win now, or you are re-building with young players to be successful in the future.  The White Sox are sitting right in the middle of both camps.  They are even more in the middle than the Indians, Central rivals who seemingly seem to be dealing with the same things.  The difference is the Indians have added young free agents to augment their young core.  The White Sox have an aging core mixed in with some talented young guys.  And they didn’t make any moves to unload their talented veterans or add to some clear weaknesses on the team in the offseason. 

This season has not gotten off to the best start for the South Siders.  They are ranked near the bottom third in just about every counting offensive stat category.  However their offense was more potent last season, which led to their second place finish.  Alex Rios led the team with a 304 AVG while chipping in 25 HR, 91 RBI, 23 SB and 93 R.  That’s quite the career renaissance for the oft over-paid right fielder.  No one expected a 20/20 season from a 30 year old that has often been considered a bust.  He’s not off to the same start, but he’s still playing well early this year.  The power leader on this team was Adam Dunn who hit 41 HR and also led the team with 96 RBI.  His job is just to hit ‘em deep and drive in runs.  After a disastrous 2011 campaign he really turned it around.  He still strikes out a ton and hit only 204, but don’t be fooled by the batting average (which is quickly becoming an antiquated state do to it’s misleading characteristics) Dunn had a great year.  He walks a ton (333 OBP) to go with all the power and RBI.  Dunn is a limited, but good hitter who is very important to the Sox.  Another offensive leader on this team is the veteran Paul Konerko.  He is getting up there in age, but Father Time doesn’t seem to be affecting his game as much as you would think. He hit 298 last year with 26 HR and 75 RBI.  He’s another year older this year but the Sox are expecting him to play at the same level he played at last year.  Unfortunately the clock may have finally caught up to him as injuries and ineffectiveness have limited him thus far.  Those three guys are the heart of their order, and they are all on the other side of 30.  This illustrates part of the White Sox’s issues.  But all those players are still talented enough to produce at a pretty high level this season and I expect them to.  For Konerko I’m thinking 260 with 15+ HR and 70 RBI.  Dunn should hit around 200 with 30+ HR and 80+ RBI and Alex Rios (the biggest question mark among them while also being the youngest and most complete hitter) I’d say 270 with 20+ HR and 70 RBI.  The Sox lost their catcher A.J. Pierzynski, the most disliked player in baseball according to a player’s poll, who hit 27 HR for them last year.  Tyler Flowers won’t replace that output, but should be solid if unspectacular behind the plate.  At the plate offensively there will be a big void.  The top of the order features Alejandro de Aza and Dayan Viciedo.  Viciedo will hit second.  He’s pretty average with the bat, but has plus power, hitting 25 HR last year.  If he can harness that power a little more he could be a future middle of the order bat in Chicago.  But now, I’m thinking 250 with 20+ HR.  His RBI numbers will be limited hitting second, but he should see an uptick in R.  Think 60+ for both.  Alejandro de Aza is a very good leadoff hitter.  He hit 281 last year with 81 R and 26 SB.  He got on base at a 349 clip.  He even showed some pop with 9 HR.  I’m thinking another similar season with 275+, 20+ SB and 80 R.  Those are very good numbers for the top of the order.  After those players, Gordon Beckham, Alexei Ramirez and Jeff Keppinger join Paul Konerko across the infield.  Ramirez is perhaps the most accomplished hitter among them with a 265/9/73/59/20 line.  The only thing he does really well is steal bases, but he’s not elite at that either.  He’s a plus hitter and solid fielder.  Beckham is considered a draft bust, which makes people think he’s worse than he really is. But there weren’t a ton of second basemen who hit 16 HR last year, and Beckham also added 60 RBI.  But his offense has limitations, with a 234 AVG.  And Jeff Keppinger had a career year as a utility player in Tampa Bay last year.  He turned that into the most head scratching deal of the offseason where position scarcity did him a huge favor.  He hit 325 with 9 HR and 40+ RBI and R.  But that was only in 115 games, and again playing matchups.  In a full time role, he’s limited, perhaps a 250 hitter with 10 HR power.  And he’s struggled enough this year to fall into a platoon role.  That’s the offense.  It’s not great, but it has pieces.  If the old guys produce, the young guys get on base, and you can get anything out of the infielders at the bottom of the lineup, this offense could be potent.  But if any part of that goes wrong, then struggles will ensue.  And the Sox have dealt with plenty of struggles so far in 2013.

The leading pitcher for this Chi Sox squad was Chris Sale.  Sale led the team with 17 Wins and a 3.05 ERA.  The lefty was an All Star with 192 Ks in 192 IP.  He had a 1.14 WHIP and 235 BAA.  He is possibly the most successful so far of the recent reliever-turned-starter candidates.  There are some who are concerned about his workload from last year, but he’s playing pretty well now and was downright nasty last year.  Gavin Floyd was supposed to be a major part of the rotation this year, but was lost for the year after 5 starts to a right elbow injury.  So they are counting even more heavily on Jake Peavy and John Danks.  Peavy led the staff with 219 IP last year.  He went 11-12 with a 3.37 ERA.  It was one of his best seasons since his All Star past.  He had a 1.10 WHIP and 234 BAA.  His K numbers weren’t back to where they used to be, but were still good at 192, enough to lead the team.  He’s the veteran of the staff now.  He’s been on the shelf too, but is due back around the All Star break and is a very important part of this rotation.  Many thought he’d be on the trading block, but he’s publicly said he doesn’t want to leave Chicago.  So we’ll see how that works out.  A lot of teams could use him.  John Danks has been helping a lot to take over with the loss of Peavy and Floyd.  Danks only started 9 games last year, going 3-4 with a 5.70 ERA.  He was coming back from injury and they hope he can return to his old form before he went down.  He’s been so-so this year at 2-6 with a 4.38 ERA.  He’s healthy, but not quite back to where he was.  A lot of other guys combined to fill out the rotation last year, making starts here and there..  But this year they let a number of those pitchers, including Phillip Humber and Francisco Liriano go, so they wanted Dylan Axelrod to be their number 5 man.  However with all the injuries they also have had to get starts from Hector Santiago and Jose Quintana.  Of those 3, Quintana had the most success last year going 6-6 in 22 starts with a 3.76 ERA.  But his WHIP and BAA were both high, so those numbers aren’t as strong as they look.  Dylan Axelrod was the one Chicago thought was most ready to be in the rotation after only 7 starts last year.  In those starts and another 7 relief appearances he went 2-2 with a 5.47 ERA.  His WHIP and BAA were through the roof, but he must have done enough in spring training to get the nod over the others as the first choice to start.  Hector Santiago, the last choice among the 3, has been making a fair number starts due to the injuries to the other pitchers.  He was solid last year, but his numbers were bolstered by his strong relief appearances.  He’s been doing okay this season, but dipping into their bullpen to get starts had weakened their middle relief corps.  The rest of their bullpen was so-so last year.  Addison Reed led the team with 29 Saves, but that came with a 4.75 ERA and 266 BAA.  Those are bad closer numbers.  Matt Thornton led the team in Holds, with 26.  He was a stronger pitcher with a 3.46 ERA.  His WHIP and BAA numbers were average, but he got the job done in the 8th inning.  Their best bullpen arm was Jesse Crain who had 10 Holds with a 2.44 ERA, 171 BAA and 1.08 WHIP.  He’ll hold down the middle relief with Thornton and Reed will still be closer, but hopefully he’ll have a stronger year this year, then he did in 2012.  In the end, there are strengths and serious questions in the bullpen.  That mirrors the issues in the rotation with some youngsters and injuries muddling the waters.  This group of pitchers will need lots of help from the hitters this year.

The White Sox are in a difficult spot.  They have some talent, but aren’t in the position to really win now.  They have some veterans they could ship off for some prospects to help add to their team.  There are some solid young players on this team, but the Sox aren’t close to contending this year, as their first half performance in 2013 has made clear.