Well it’s that time.
Baseball is in full swing. And
I’m trying to finish my team breakdowns before the All Star Break. I started with the AL West, and then knocked
out the NL before moving back to the AL East.
That now brings me to the first team in the AL Central. Using last season’s final standings, the first
AL Central team on my list is the Detroit Tigers.
Projected Starting Lineup
C- Alex Avila
1B- Prince Fielder
2B- Omar Infante
SS- Jhonny
Perlata
3B- Miguel Cabrera
LF- Andy Dirks
CF- Austin Jackson
RF- Torii Hunter
DH- Victor Martinez
Starting
Rotation: Justin Verlander, Max
Scherzer, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello
Bullpen: Jose Valverde, Phil Coke, Joacquin
Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Drew Smyly, Al Albuquerque, Bruce Rondon
Projected Batting Order
CF- Austin Jackson
RF- Torii Hunter
3B- Miguel Cabrera
1B- Prince Fielder
DH- Victor Martinez
SS- Jhonny
Peralta
C- Alex Avila
LF- Andy Dirks
2B- Omar Infante
The Tigers are a murderers row from top to bottom. Going through their batting order is what
pitchers have nightmares about. Austin
Jackson is one of the best leadoff men in the game. He’s followed by a crafty veteran in Torii
Hunter who is good at everything offensively, though not as good as he used to
be. Next you have the best hitter in the
game in Miguel Cabrera, followed by one of the game’s premier power hitters in
Prince Fielder. Those are both guys
capable of 300-320 each year with 40 HR apiece.
Then you have a very talented DH in Victor Martinez who can also hit
over 300 and pop 20 HR. Next you have
back-to-back All Stars in Peralta and Avila before a slight break in Andy
Dirks, who is at worst an average ballplayer.
Then you deal with Omar Infante, another former All Star who hits for
plus AVG and has plus speed before you return to the top of the lineup. This is not a group any pitcher wants to
face. And they support a pitching staff
with the best pitcher in baseball in Verlander, a strikeout machine in Scherzer
and quality veterans in Fister and Sanchez who would be number 2 starters in
most other rotations. The only area that
looks weak for this Tigers team is the bullpen, which still lacks a closer
after the re-signing and then release of Jose Valverde. This team would be great in any
division. But in the AL Central, one of
the weakest divisions in baseball, this team is one of the strongest bets to
win their division, and possibly advance deep into the playoffs.
When there’s a triple crown winner on your team, you can
feel confident that he’ll be leading your team in all the major categories. You know, since he led the whole league in
AVG, HR and RBI. And that was the case
with Miguel Cabrera. He led the team
with a 330 AVG, 44 HR and 139 RBI while chipping in 109 R. He’s, quite simply, the best hitter in
baseball. And the best hitter in
baseball has some of the best protection in the game in Prince Fielder. Fielder was second on the team with 30 HR to
go with 108 RBI, 83 R and a 313 AVG.
That was actually a down year for the Prince, who generally comes closer
to 40 HR. But his AVG was up (he’s
usually in the 280-300 range) and he still drove in a great number of
runs. So he did his job. Miguel Cabrera being on base helped that. But so did Austin Jackson. Jackson led off for this team and did a great
job. He actually had a higher WAR for
Miguel Cabrera, which partially puts the issues with that statistical measure
into perspective. (Though it shouldn’t
be completely dismissed. It’s still a
pretty good measure of player output and accurately identified Mike Trout as
the best player in baseball last season…which is why he SHOULD have been the
MVP…but that’s another story…one you can find HERE). However, the point is that Austin Jackson had
a great season hitting 300 with 16 HR, 66 RBI, 12 SB and 103 R. He has good power for a leadoff man, but not
great speed (12 SB and 9 CS…not his strongest area on the diamond). But he consistently hits for a good AVG, had
a great OBP last year (377) and has some good pop. His defense is also a plus. He’s quickly becoming a premier leadoff hitter
in this league. With the best 3,4 combo
in the game and one of the best leadoff hitters you can see why this offense
was so potent last season. Now, add in
Victor Martinez who missed all of last season due to injury and Torii Hunter
who was added as a free agent, and this premier offense got even better for
2013. Martinez’s last healthy season saw
him hit 330 with 12 HR and 103 RBI. The
year before saw 302 with 20 HR. He may
not hit 20 HR or 330 again this year, but he’s got the ability to do all that. I’d expect around 300 with 15 HR and 100
RBI. Miguel Cabrera’s protection keeps
getting better. Martinez will hit 5th
behind Fielder and Cabrera. They will
all attempt to drive in Jackson and the newly signed Hunter, who will hit
second. He had a career year last season
with the Angels hitting 313 with 16 HR and 92 RBI. He’s getting up there in age, but the veteran
is still a solid hitter, great defensive right fielder and a strong clubhouse
presence. I don’t expect him to come
anywhere close to those numbers this year.
But he should be more than capable of hitting 270+ with double digit HR
power and 70+ R. The top 5 hitters in
this lineup are probably the best group of 5 hitters on any team in
baseball. And there is depth behind
them. Omar Infante is a former All Star
second baseman that will likely hit at the bottom of this lineup. He had 12 HR and 54 RBI between the 2 teams
last year with a career high 17 SB. I’m
not sure we’ll see that much speed again, but he should be a lock for 260+ with
double digit HR and SB and 50 RBI and R.
His double play partner will be another All Star in Jhonny Peralta. He struggled mightily last year hitting 239
with only 13 HR. But the year before he
hit 299 with 21 HR and 86 RBI. He should
be capable of another season closer to his 2011 totals than his 2012. Think 260+ with 15+ HR and 60+ RBI. He’s off to a great start this year. Behind the plate the Tigers will have another
All Star (see a pattern here) in Alex Avila.
He also had a down season hitting 243 in 2012 with 9 HR and 48 RBI. The year before he hit 295 with 19 HR and 82
RBI. He’s likely somewhere in between
these two players. An injury has kept
him out of the lineup for a lot of this season so he hasn’t had a chance to
improve on those numbers but a healthy Avila just makes this group even
deeper. The only position that won’t be
manned by an All Star will be left field, where Don Kelly and Andy Dirks will
platoon and be well above average. This
has to be considered one of the best offenses in the league, and could
singlehandedly put this team in contention in the AL Central.
However the addition of this pitching staff makes this team
a favorite to win the division, the league and possibly the World Series. The ace of this staff is Justin Verlander,
the best pitcher in baseball. He led the
team with 17 Wins, a 2.64 ERA and 239 Ks last year. He also led all the Tigers starters with 238
IP, a 1.06 WHIP and 217 BAA. As Miguel
Cabrera is clearly the best hitter in the game, Verlander is the best
pitcher. It’s rare that one team has the
best player on both sides of the ball, but Detroit can boast that
distinction. In addition to Verlander,
Detroit can boast a premier strikeout pitcher in Max Scherzer, who is having
one of the best seasons in baseball this year.
He went 16-7 last year with 231 Ks in only 189 IP. He wasn’t in Verlander’s league with a 3.74
ERA last year and very average WHIP and BAA numbers. But he’s a premier strikeout pitcher who is
known to be very heady and getting better.
We can see evidence of that in his performance this year. With those two aces up top, the Tigers are in
good shape. But the depth is what makes
them one of the best teams in baseball.
After Scherzer and Verlander, the Tigers have Doug Fister, Anibal
Sanchez and Rick Porcello rounding out the rotation. Fister went 10-10 with a 3.45 ERA last year
in 26 starts. Sanchez went 4-6 with a
3.74 ERA in his 12 starts with Detroit, but was fantastic in the playoffs and
finally seems to have found command of his breaking pitches. He needs to rein in the walks, but his stuff
is still great, and as a 4th starter the expectations on him have eased
considerably. The 5th starter
spot belongs to Rick Porcello, who went 10-12 last year. His 4.59 ERA was the worst of the bunch, but
you expect that from 5th starters.
But his WHIP and BAA were actually strong. He’s not a strikeout guy, but has done
pretty well with the K this year. He can
throw innings and keep his team in games.
And with this potent offense, he doesn’t have to be great. I’d expect more of the same from him this
year. The only weakness on this team is
in the bullpen. There is still no
closer, even after cutting, re-signing and calling up Jose Valverde, only to
cut him again. Bruce Rondon had a chance
to win the job in Triple A, but lost it, and went down to the minors. He’s recently been called back up to have
another shot. Octavio Dotel, Joaquin
Benoit and Phil Coke have all filled in but not been great. They are good middle relief guys but the lack
of a closer is the big concern here.
However you can feel pretty certain that they will actively shop for one
at the deadline, and they are doing okay even without a closer.
The Tigers are one of the best teams in baseball in one of
the weakest divisions. That combo gives
them the best chance to win their division, and they are favorites to win the
AL pennant as well. The best hitter in
the game leads their offense and the best pitcher leads their pitching
staff. But what really puts them over
the top is the depth they have on both sides of the ball. They only have one weakness and it’s
something they can fix with a deadline trade.
We’ll see. But even without a
closer they are a great team in a bad division that probably have the path of
least resistance to the postseason. I’m
certain we’ll see them in October and would be shocked if they didn’t move deep
into the playoffs.
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