Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Detroit Tigers 2013 Team Breakdown



Well it’s that time.  Baseball is in full swing.  And I’m trying to finish my team breakdowns before the All Star Break.  I started with the AL West, and then knocked out the NL before moving back to the AL East.  That now brings me to the first team in the AL Central.  Using last season’s final standings, the first AL Central team on my list is the Detroit Tigers.


Projected Starting Lineup

C-        Alex Avila
1B-      Prince Fielder
2B-      Omar Infante
SS-      Jhonny Perlata
3B-      Miguel Cabrera
LF-      Andy Dirks
CF-      Austin Jackson
RF-      Torii Hunter
DH-     Victor Martinez

Starting Rotation:      Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello

Bullpen:                    Jose Valverde, Phil Coke, Joacquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Drew Smyly, Al                        Albuquerque, Bruce Rondon

Projected Batting Order

CF-      Austin Jackson
RF-      Torii Hunter
3B-      Miguel Cabrera
1B-      Prince Fielder
DH-     Victor Martinez
SS-       Jhonny Peralta
C-        Alex Avila
LF-      Andy Dirks
2B-      Omar Infante

The Tigers are a murderers row from top to bottom.  Going through their batting order is what pitchers have nightmares about.  Austin Jackson is one of the best leadoff men in the game.  He’s followed by a crafty veteran in Torii Hunter who is good at everything offensively, though not as good as he used to be.  Next you have the best hitter in the game in Miguel Cabrera, followed by one of the game’s premier power hitters in Prince Fielder.  Those are both guys capable of 300-320 each year with 40 HR apiece.  Then you have a very talented DH in Victor Martinez who can also hit over 300 and pop 20 HR.  Next you have back-to-back All Stars in Peralta and Avila before a slight break in Andy Dirks, who is at worst an average ballplayer.  Then you deal with Omar Infante, another former All Star who hits for plus AVG and has plus speed before you return to the top of the lineup.  This is not a group any pitcher wants to face.  And they support a pitching staff with the best pitcher in baseball in Verlander, a strikeout machine in Scherzer and quality veterans in Fister and Sanchez who would be number 2 starters in most other rotations.  The only area that looks weak for this Tigers team is the bullpen, which still lacks a closer after the re-signing and then release of Jose Valverde.  This team would be great in any division.  But in the AL Central, one of the weakest divisions in baseball, this team is one of the strongest bets to win their division, and possibly advance deep into the playoffs.

When there’s a triple crown winner on your team, you can feel confident that he’ll be leading your team in all the major categories.  You know, since he led the whole league in AVG, HR and RBI.  And that was the case with Miguel Cabrera.  He led the team with a 330 AVG, 44 HR and 139 RBI while chipping in 109 R.  He’s, quite simply, the best hitter in baseball.  And the best hitter in baseball has some of the best protection in the game in Prince Fielder.  Fielder was second on the team with 30 HR to go with 108 RBI, 83 R and a 313 AVG.  That was actually a down year for the Prince, who generally comes closer to 40 HR.  But his AVG was up (he’s usually in the 280-300 range) and he still drove in a great number of runs.  So he did his job.  Miguel Cabrera being on base helped that.  But so did Austin Jackson.  Jackson led off for this team and did a great job.  He actually had a higher WAR for Miguel Cabrera, which partially puts the issues with that statistical measure into perspective.  (Though it shouldn’t be completely dismissed.  It’s still a pretty good measure of player output and accurately identified Mike Trout as the best player in baseball last season…which is why he SHOULD have been the MVP…but that’s another story…one you can find HERE).  However, the point is that Austin Jackson had a great season hitting 300 with 16 HR, 66 RBI, 12 SB and 103 R.  He has good power for a leadoff man, but not great speed (12 SB and 9 CS…not his strongest area on the diamond).  But he consistently hits for a good AVG, had a great OBP last year (377) and has some good pop.  His defense is also a plus.  He’s quickly becoming a premier leadoff hitter in this league.  With the best 3,4 combo in the game and one of the best leadoff hitters you can see why this offense was so potent last season.  Now, add in Victor Martinez who missed all of last season due to injury and Torii Hunter who was added as a free agent, and this premier offense got even better for 2013.  Martinez’s last healthy season saw him hit 330 with 12 HR and 103 RBI.  The year before saw 302 with 20 HR.  He may not hit 20 HR or 330 again this year, but he’s got the ability to do all that.  I’d expect around 300 with 15 HR and 100 RBI.  Miguel Cabrera’s protection keeps getting better.  Martinez will hit 5th behind Fielder and Cabrera.  They will all attempt to drive in Jackson and the newly signed Hunter, who will hit second.  He had a career year last season with the Angels hitting 313 with 16 HR and 92 RBI.  He’s getting up there in age, but the veteran is still a solid hitter, great defensive right fielder and a strong clubhouse presence.  I don’t expect him to come anywhere close to those numbers this year.  But he should be more than capable of hitting 270+ with double digit HR power and 70+ R.  The top 5 hitters in this lineup are probably the best group of 5 hitters on any team in baseball.  And there is depth behind them.  Omar Infante is a former All Star second baseman that will likely hit at the bottom of this lineup.  He had 12 HR and 54 RBI between the 2 teams last year with a career high 17 SB.  I’m not sure we’ll see that much speed again, but he should be a lock for 260+ with double digit HR and SB and 50 RBI and R.  His double play partner will be another All Star in Jhonny Peralta.  He struggled mightily last year hitting 239 with only 13 HR.  But the year before he hit 299 with 21 HR and 86 RBI.  He should be capable of another season closer to his 2011 totals than his 2012.  Think 260+ with 15+ HR and 60+ RBI.  He’s off to a great start this year.  Behind the plate the Tigers will have another All Star (see a pattern here) in Alex Avila.  He also had a down season hitting 243 in 2012 with 9 HR and 48 RBI.  The year before he hit 295 with 19 HR and 82 RBI.  He’s likely somewhere in between these two players.  An injury has kept him out of the lineup for a lot of this season so he hasn’t had a chance to improve on those numbers but a healthy Avila just makes this group even deeper.  The only position that won’t be manned by an All Star will be left field, where Don Kelly and Andy Dirks will platoon and be well above average.  This has to be considered one of the best offenses in the league, and could singlehandedly put this team in contention in the AL Central. 

However the addition of this pitching staff makes this team a favorite to win the division, the league and possibly the World Series.  The ace of this staff is Justin Verlander, the best pitcher in baseball.  He led the team with 17 Wins, a 2.64 ERA and 239 Ks last year.  He also led all the Tigers starters with 238 IP, a 1.06 WHIP and 217 BAA.  As Miguel Cabrera is clearly the best hitter in the game, Verlander is the best pitcher.  It’s rare that one team has the best player on both sides of the ball, but Detroit can boast that distinction.  In addition to Verlander, Detroit can boast a premier strikeout pitcher in Max Scherzer, who is having one of the best seasons in baseball this year.  He went 16-7 last year with 231 Ks in only 189 IP.  He wasn’t in Verlander’s league with a 3.74 ERA last year and very average WHIP and BAA numbers.  But he’s a premier strikeout pitcher who is known to be very heady and getting better.  We can see evidence of that in his performance this year.  With those two aces up top, the Tigers are in good shape.  But the depth is what makes them one of the best teams in baseball.  After Scherzer and Verlander, the Tigers have Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello rounding out the rotation.  Fister went 10-10 with a 3.45 ERA last year in 26 starts.  Sanchez went 4-6 with a 3.74 ERA in his 12 starts with Detroit, but was fantastic in the playoffs and finally seems to have found command of his breaking pitches.  He needs to rein in the walks, but his stuff is still great, and as a 4th starter the expectations on him have eased considerably.  The 5th starter spot belongs to Rick Porcello, who went 10-12 last year.  His 4.59 ERA was the worst of the bunch, but you expect that from 5th starters.  But his WHIP and BAA were actually strong.   He’s not a strikeout guy, but has done pretty well with the K this year.  He can throw innings and keep his team in games.  And with this potent offense, he doesn’t have to be great.  I’d expect more of the same from him this year.  The only weakness on this team is in the bullpen.  There is still no closer, even after cutting, re-signing and calling up Jose Valverde, only to cut him again.  Bruce Rondon had a chance to win the job in Triple A, but lost it, and went down to the minors.  He’s recently been called back up to have another shot.  Octavio Dotel, Joaquin Benoit and Phil Coke have all filled in but not been great.  They are good middle relief guys but the lack of a closer is the big concern here.  However you can feel pretty certain that they will actively shop for one at the deadline, and they are doing okay even without a closer.

The Tigers are one of the best teams in baseball in one of the weakest divisions.  That combo gives them the best chance to win their division, and they are favorites to win the AL pennant as well.  The best hitter in the game leads their offense and the best pitcher leads their pitching staff.  But what really puts them over the top is the depth they have on both sides of the ball.  They only have one weakness and it’s something they can fix with a deadline trade.  We’ll see.  But even without a closer they are a great team in a bad division that probably have the path of least resistance to the postseason.  I’m certain we’ll see them in October and would be shocked if they didn’t move deep into the playoffs.

No comments:

Post a Comment