Sunday, March 31, 2013

Milwaukee Brewers 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  The season starts tonight.  I’m incredibly behind on my team breakdowns.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you.  I started with the AL West, and then knocked out the NL East.  I’m now into the NL Central.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the third team in the NL Central is the Milwaukee Brewers.


Milwaukee Brewers:
2012 Record:  83-79  3rd in NL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

C-            Jonathan Lucroy
1B-            Corey Hart
2B-            Rickie Weeks
SS-            Jean Segura
3B-            Aramis Ramirez
LF-            Ryan Braun
CF-            Carlos Gomez
RF-            Norichika Aioki

Projected Batting Order

RF-            Norichika Aioki
2B-            Rickie Weeks
LF-            Ryan Braun
3B-            Aramis Ramirez
1B-            Corey Hart
CF-            Carlos Gomez
C-            Jonathan Lucroy
SS-            Jean Segura

Projected Starting Rotation:
Yovani Gallardo, Mcarco Estrada, Mike Fiers, Wily Peralta, Chris Narveson

Bullpen:
John Axford, Burke Badenhop, Tom Gorzelanny, Mark Rogers, Michael Gonzalez, Jim Henderson, Josh Stinson

The Brewers had a pretty average year.  They finished the season a few games over 500, but out of the playoff hunt.  They were out soon enough to be sellers at the trading deadline and they parted ways with ace Zack Greinke.  This offseason they lost Shaun Marcum.  And now, the only ace left in this starting group is Yovani Gallardo.  He’s paired with a bunch of no-names, similar to the way John Axford is holding together a bullpen of no-names, though there was concern that Axford was going to end up a no-name himself after a bad year.  But that abysmal pitching staff is paired with a dynamic offense.  So, pretty much the same Brewers we’ve been seeing the last 8 years or so, except when they trade for pitching and go for it (aka, the CC Sabathia years or the Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo years). 

Since I’m an optimist, let’s start with an offense that looks optimal to say the least.  Ryan Braun was the Brewers triple crown winner last season, leading the team in AVG (319), HR (41) and RBI (112).  He also led them in R (108), OBP (409) and Slugging (595), which made him the OPS leader as well (987).  In addition, he was second on the team with 30 SB and had a fantastic glove out in left field.  He was basically the whole enchilada.  He was my pick for MVP.  And at this point, assuming there are no developments in the Miami New Times drug stories, you can pretty much pen in Braun for another season of about 320/40/110/100/25+.  He’s possibly the best hitter in the game.  I can’t think of many that are better.  And even the ones might challenge him for that title don’t run like he does.  (Trout is still too young to be in this discussion).  Braun is the bees knees.  But he wasn’t alone.  This whole team can hit.  Catcher Jonathan Lucroy had to deal with injuries, but still hit 320 in 96 games with some nice pop (12 HR) and an ability to drive in runners (58 RBI).  Aramis Ramirez might be the most under-appreciated player in the game, hitting behind Braun.  But his season featured a 300 AVG to go with 27 HR, 105 RBI and 92 R.  And he’s slick with the leather too.  Japanese import Aioki hit 288 with 10 HR, 50 RBI, 81 R and 30 SB out of the leadoff spot.  Corey Hart hit 270 with 30 HR, 83 RBI and 91 R.  Carlos Gomez hit 260 with 19 HR and a team best 37 SBs.  6 of their 8 position players were All Star caliber last year.  And the other two feature a new kid (Jean Segura, 264 w/ 7 SB in 44 games) and a star with a ton of talent, but who underperformed last year (Rickie Weeks 230, but he still hit 21 HR, drove in 63 and swiped 16 bags).  This lineup is poised to continue driving in runs with the best of them.  Aioki is a great leadoff man.  Weeks struggled last year, but is immensely talented.  Braun is the best hitter in the game.  Ramirez and Hart are both All Star caliber players each season and just overlooked when it comes time to play the mid-summer classic.  And Gomez finally found his stroke.  Not to mention a stud catcher in Lucroy who can hit for AVG and a speedy shortstop in Segura.  You can’t go wrong.  Even if Weeks struggles again, Corey Hart can it second and Gomez and Lucroy can each hit a spot higher in the order.  Or maybe Lucroy hits second.  Or Segura if he’s having a great day.  But this lineup is stacked, and should be among the best in baseball, let alone the NL Central.  If pitching didn’t matter, this might be the best team in the league.

Alas, pitching is a major part of this game, and that’s where the Brewers are going to struggle.  Like Ryan Braun with the pitching stats, Yovani Gallardo led the team in the major pitching stats with 16 Wins, a 3.66 ERA and 204 Ks.  He was also the only Milwaukee pitcher to reach 200 IP last season.  But even this ace wasn’t foolproof.  His 243 BAA was pretty average.  His 1.30 WHIP was actually below average, in a negative way.  (Average is about 1.25…so Gallardo’s was worse…that’s what I’m trying to convey).  So while Gallardo was the ace, his numbers weren’t where we expect aces be.  But nitpicking on the Brewers best pitcher is kind of a waste of time.  He’ll be fine.  If he’s healthy, expect around 15 Wins with 200 IP/Ks and a sub-4 ERA.  He won’t win a Cy Young, but he’ll be playing well.  But it’s bleak after that.  Zack Greinke is gone.  Shaun Marcum is gone.  Even Randy Wolf, who had a bad year, is gone.  The returning player with the next most starts is Marco Estrada with 23.  He went 5-7 with a 3.64 ERA.  Actually not too bad.  1.14 WHIP and 247 BAA looks good.  143 Ks in 138 IP.  If he can keep that up, he can challenge Gallardo for the best numbers on the staff.  He’s young and lacks experience, but I don’t see him being a problem this year.  I’m expecting double digit wins and a sub 4 ERA.  Mike Fiers had 22 starts with a 9-10 record and 3.74 ERA.  He, too, had a high strikeout rate, 135 Ks in 127 IP.  Needs to lower his WHIP and BAA, but he’s even younger and less experienced than Estrada, so he’s still learning.  Who knows how his first full season will go, but he’s got some talent.  The top 3 shouldn’t hurt the Brewers too bad, though you are counting on young guys for a lot.  Maybe too much.  Staying in the vein, we have Wily Peralta.  He had the best numbers, but only 5 starts.  He went 2-1 with a 2.48.  That’s better than having bad numbers in only 5 starts, but the sample size is way to small to get a good idea about.  His ceiling is high, but we have to see how his first full season goes.  Chris Narveson will probably take the last spot, but that’s not exciting.  His ERA was 7 over 2 starts.  The Brewers would love Mark Rogers to take the last spot.  He was 3-1 in 7 starts with a 3.92 ERA.  Maybe he’ll get the spot.  Otherwise he’ll go to the bullpen.  The point is, while these guys had limited success in an even more limited amount of time, to count on them this much is a lot.  And you truly need these starters to excel to protect what may be the worst bullpen in baseball.  John Axford was a mess last year with 9 blown Saves and a 4.67 ERA.  His 1.44 WHIP was through the roof and he had more walks (39) than Saves (37).  If he can’t lock down the last inning there is no hope in Milwaukee.  There still may be no hope as the rest of these guys are uninspiring.  The bullpen will struggle, especially if they log a lot of innings in relief of these young guys.

2013 Prediction:

The Milwaukee Brewers are a confusing bunch.  Their hitters are great.  Their pitchers are struggling.  Direction is very important for a team.  If you know you are contending and going for it, fans understand it and watch it.  If a team is rebuilding then fans understand it and support it.  If you are somehow in the middle, no one knows what to make of you.  Who builds a team good enough to win 80?  What is the use of that?  Save some money, re-build and trade away pieces to get better in the future.  Or, spend some money, trade for some pieces and go for it now.  The Brewers don’t seem to be doing either.  And that’s a place you don’t want to be because you are wasting the prime years of that offense and the patience of fans.  I don’t think this team will contend in this division.  They will be a third or fourth place team, hovering around 500.

Monday, March 25, 2013

St. Louis Cardinals 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Spring training is in it’s twilight (vampires are sparkling all over the Grapefruit and Cactus leagues) and regular season baseball is right around the corner.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I waited for most of the free agents to sign.  Others may sign after I talk about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team breakdown as necessary.  I started with the AL West, then moved the NL East and am now tackling the AL Central.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the second NL Central team on my list is the St. Louis Cardinals. 



St. Louis Cardinals:
2012 Record:  88-74  2nd IN NL Central (Second Wildcard Winner)


Projected Starting Lineup

C-              Yadier Molina
1B-            Allen Craig
2B-            Daniel Descalso
SS-            Pete Kosma
3B-            David Freese
LF-            Matt Holliday
CF-            John Jay
RF-            Carlos Beltran


Projected Batting Order

CF-            John Jay
RF-            Carlos Beltran
LF-            Matt Holliday
1B-            Allen Craig
3B-            David Freese
C-              Yadier Molina
SS-            Pete Kozma
2B-            Daniel Descalso

Starting Rotation:
Adam Wainwright, Jamie Garcia, Jake Westbrook, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller

Bullpen:
Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, Randy Choate, Edward Mujica, Fernando Salas, Marc Rzepczynski, Trevor Rosenthal


The Cardinals came very close to repeating as NL Champs.  After defeating the Braves in the single elimination Wildcard game, they overcame a final strike situation against the Nationals and had a record comeback to move on to the NLCS.  They played well there, until the end when the Giants used a comeback of their own to dispatch of the Redbirds.  Still, rookie manager Mike Matheny had an impressive debut taking a team that lost their best hitter in Albert Pujols, their Hall of Fame skipper Tony LaRussa, and a spring injury to Chris Carpenter, which knocked him out for the year.  Still, the Cardinals overcame all that and had a hot second half to capture the second wildcard, despite trailing the Reds in the division race by 9 games and the Braves in the Wildcard chase by 6 games.  The Cardinals know that getting into the playoffs is the goal, and for back to back years they’ve slipped in to the final spot of the postseason and played their best baseball in October.  However it’s not the way they want to win.  If the second wildcard weren’t around last season then the defending champs of 2011 wouldn’t have even been playing in the postseason.  And a 9 game deficit is a healthy margin to lose a division by.  The Cardinals needed to make some changes.  And they hope they’ve got the kind of team that can go all the way this year, and lock up a playoff spot with some room to spare.

This team had a good, but streaky offense last season.  They ended up being the number 2 team in R, but had a 5-39 record in games where they scored 2 runs or less.  Manager Mike Matheny knows they need to be more consistent, and he hopes his improving youngsters can be the difference while the veterans who played well for his squad, continue to play like they are in their primes, not a little beyond them.  The leading hitter on this team was catcher Yadier Molina, who set career highs in AVG (315), HR (22) and RBI (76).  He’s always been one of the best defensive catchers in the game, if not the best.  He’s been a solid offensive player for years, but has broken out over the last two seasons, with last year being his best.  If he matches last season’s output, then he’ll be a key force in this Cardinals lineup, as well as one of the best catchers in baseball.  His defense is superior to McCann and Posey so if he can out-hit or at least come close to equaling their output then he’ll take over the mantle of best catcher in baseball.  The HR leader on this club was Carlos Beltran, who re-invigorated his career in St. Louis after a strong walk year with New York and San Francisco.  He was expected to help makeup for the loss of Pujols, but no one expected him to play this well.   There is concern that he is only going to decline as he gets older, but if he can at least produce some power to go with his plus AVG, his presence in the 2 hole will be huge, like it was last season.  The RBI leader for this club is their best hitter, Matt Holliday.  Holliday was originally brought to St. Louis to protect Albert Pujols in the order.  He’s now the number 3 hitter of this club, pacing the Cards offensively.  He did his job last year, hitting 295 with 29 HR, 102 RBI and 95 R.  With Holliday, Beltran and Molina, the Cardinals have a strong verteran presence leading the offense.  Beyond them, they are looking for young guys to continue to take over and play like they did last season.  It starts at the top of the order with center fielder John Jay.  Jay played very well, becoming a great defensive center fielder last year and taking over the leadoff spot in the lineup after Rafael Furcal went down with an injury.  He hit 305 with 70 R and a team best 19 SBs.  He’s slotted in to be the leadoff man for much, if not all of this season, as Furcal needs Tommy John surgery.  (P.S.  It probably wouldn’t surprise you to hear that Carlos Beltran was second on this team in SBs, mainly because of the number of bags he stole, 13.  He’s not the fleetest of foot with those surgically repaired knees and his age, but 13 bags is pretty solid for him.  Guess who was third on this team in stolen bases.  Rafael Furcal?  Matt Holliday?  Nope.  It was Yadier Molina with 12 SBs.  He was a monster in every facet of the game last year.)  The other young building block on this Cardinals roster had a great season as he was finally able to stay healthy.  That was postseason hero David Freese, who built on his strong World Series winning effort in 2011 and had a very good 2012 in 144 games.  He hit 293 with 20 HR, 79 RBI and 70 R.  He can hit anywhere in the middle of this lineup and will likely spend time 5th or 6th, depending on where they slot Molina.  There was one more major offensive surprise last year, and another bigger surprise, but one that had less of an impact.  We’ll start with the one that means more, and that was the play of Allen Craig.  The Cards knew Craig had this in him and thought he’d take over as their everyday first baseman eventually, it just happened a year sooner than anyone expected. Craig hit 307 with 22 HR and 92 RBI.  What makes that even more impressive is the fact that he only played in 119 games.  92 RBI in 119 games.  In a full season that equals out to about 120 RBI.  I’ll take that every time.  The other big surprise in St. Louis was Pete Kozma, who filled in for an injured Rafael Furcal.  He only played in 26 games and the post season, but was great for all that time.  His regular season numbers were 333 with 2 HR and 14 RBI.  That’s in less than a quarter of a season.  If he can keep that pace up he’d have about 10 HR, 60-65 RBI and 10 SBs to go with his solid glove at short.  MVP numbers they are not, but fantastic output from a backup who is being thrust into everyday duty and will hit in the 7th or 8th spot in the lineup.  It’s a small sample size, but the Cards like what they have in Kozma.  That leaves them with only one spot in question at that’s at second, where they plan to let Daniel Descalso hold on to the job unless someone takes it.  His glove is solid, but his bat is bad.  However, he also hits 8th, so that’s a plus.  In the end, this lineup has a ton of talent.  If they can avoid being streaky, I have no reason to think they can’t compete with Cincinnati in the NL Central.

The area that looks a little shaky coming into this season is the starting rotation.  Adam Wainwright is back and is an ace.  He wasn’t as good as he was in the past, but he many think he was still getting his strength back in his first full season after surgery.  This is the year that most pitchers make a full comeback after Tommy John, and Wainwright has Cy Young talent in him.  He wasn’t bad last year, with a 14-13 record and a team leading 184 Ks.  His 3.94 ERA was a bit high for a number 1 starter, but even higher for him.  The WHIP and BAA show that it wasn’t a fluke.  But if he continues to get stronger, I have every reason to believe he can return to his 15+ Win, 200 IP/K form with a sub 3.50 ERA.  The real issue is the Cardinals’ other ace, Chris Carpenter, is lost for the season, and possibly for good to nerve irritation in his shoulder and arm.  So the spot of the number 2 starter falls to Jamie Garcia, who only made 20 starts last year.  But he was solid with a 7-7 record and 3.92 ERA.  He’s got plenty of talent and showed that with a breakout season 2 years ago.  If he can stay healthy, he should win double-digit games pitching to a sub-4 ERA.  Jake Westbrook is the number 3 man now, and at this point all he can be is an innings eater.  But he’s a reliable veteran who lives on groundouts.  He was 13-11 last year with 174 IP and a 3.97 ERA.  They’ll take that from him every time.  The only difference is this year they’d love to get 200 innings to go with 30+ starts, not 28.  The big surprise last year (the Cards always seem to have a come out of nowhere candidate starting) was Lance Lynn who led the staff with 18 Wins.  He went 18-7 in 29 starts with a 3.78 ERA overall for the year.  But his second half was very shaky, so shaky that he lost his starting job and was moved to the bullpen.  He was supposed to have to earn it back this spring, but with the loss of Carpenter he looks like he has to start.  Who knows what we’ll get from him.  18 Wins is probably a bit high.  But if he can find his first half form, I’d expect 10-15 to go with an ERA around 4.  For the back end of the rotation, that’ll do just fine.  So with those 4 set, Carpenter hurt and Kyle Lohse lost to free agency, I have the last spot in the rotation going to Shelby Miller.  In 6 games (1 start, 5 from the pen) he was 1-0 with a 1.32 ERA.  He struck out 16 in 13 IP with a 0.95 WHIP and 184 BAA.  While those numbers look great, remember how small the sample size is.  And also remember that there was only one start in there.  Most of his time was spent in the bullpen.  But they like his stuff and think he’s a future rotation fixture in St. Louis, so he looks like he’ll get a chance to be the number 5 man.  The good news is, the starters won’t be expected to go 7-9 IP every game to win.  The Cards have a great bullpen set up for the 2013 season, improved at the trade deadline last year and with some free agent signings.  Jason Motte tied for the NL lead with 42 Saves to go with his 2.75 ERA.  He struck out 86 in 72 IP while holding opponents to a 191 BAA and 0.92 WHIP.  He’s the real deal, one of the best in the senior circuit.  However he may start the season on the DL, missing half of April.  So the rest of the bullpen needs to be strong behind him.  That starts with setup man Mitchell Boggs, who had 34 Holds and a team leading 78 appearances.  He’s not the strikeout pitcher that Motte is, but he did turn in a 1.05 WHIP and 211 BAA.  He just gets batters out.  Youngster Trevor Rosenthal struck out 25 in 22 IP with a 0.93 WHIP and 175 BAA.  His fastball averaged about 100 MPH.  And the rest of the bullpen features veterans Randy Choate, Edward Mujica, Marc Rzepcynski and Fernando Salas, who could all be 7th or 8th inning men elsewhere, but are only expected to share those jobs here and be matchup specialists.  This is one of the strongest aspects of Mike Matheny’s club.

2013 Prediction:

The Cards have a lot of talent.  They have been Wildcard winners the past two years, both times taking the last available slot to get into the postseason.  Then, both times, they advanced to the NLCS, and won the whole shebang in 2011.  This year, they hope to make it to the postseason again, but would love to get in with a little room to spare.  They have a lot of ground to make up in their division or even for the first wildcard from last year, but are essentially sending the same team out there to get it done.  Their bullpen is great and their offense is good and improving as key players gain experience.  But the starting rotation is weaker.  Carpenter won’t be back and they lost Kylse Lohse to free agency.  They need Adam Wainwright to return to Cy Young form, Jamie Garcia to return to his breakout numbers from a few years ago, Lance Lynn to pitch like the first half of last year and Westbrook and Miller to be solid.  If they can pitch, they can win.  But with little starting depth, the injury history of pitchers (especially some of these guys) and the talent of the Reds, that’s a lot of things to break right for them.  I have them finishing second, and perhaps in the wildcard picture again.  But it’ll be another season of scraping by with no room to spare in St. Louis.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Cincinnati Reds Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Spring training is in its twilight and the 2013 season is about to start.   And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I started with the AL West, then went to the NL East, and now I’m going to start putting out my NL Central breakdowns.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the first NL Central team I’ll examine will be the Cincinnati Reds.


Cincinnati Reds:
2012 Record:  97-65;  First in the NL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

C-              Ryan Hannigan
1B-            Joey Votto
2B-            Brandon Phillips
SS-            Zack Cosart
3B-            Todd Frazier
LF-            Ryan Ludwick
CF-            Shin Soo Choo
RF-            Jay Bruce

Projected Batting Order

CF-            Shin Shoo Choo
2B-            Brandon Phillips
1B-            Joey Votto
RF-            Jay Bruce
LF-            Ryan Ludwick
3B-            Todd Frazier
SS-            Zack Cosart
C-              Ryan Hannigan


Starting Rotation:
Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Aroldis Chapman, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake

Bullpen:
Jonathan Broxton, Sean Marshall, Jose Arrendondo, Sam LeCure, Manny Parra, Nick Masset, Lgan Ondrusek


The Reds had a strong bounce back year after underperforming in 2011.  They were the NL Central Champs in 2010, and were expected to win the title again in 2011, but didn’t.  However last year they returned to the top of their division, a spot that they have the talent and ability to stay in for the next few years.  They may have over performed in 2010, but continued to improve each year, becoming the most talented team in the division.  They have a star in Brandon Phillips, an MVP Joey Votto, and a talented group of guys behind them.  Jay Bruce came into his own, Ryan Ludwick played very well last season and was re-signed, Todd Frazier had a fantastic rookie year, and their pitching staff looks fantastic with Cueto playing at a Cy Young level, Mat Latos pitching like an All Star, Bronson Arroyo pitching like a dependable veteran, and youngsters Mike Leake and Homer Bailey providing solid innings at the back end of the rotation.  And now they have extra depth with Aroldis Chapman, the star closer possibly making some starts this year.  With an abundance of starters, a solid bullpen and an elite offense that continues to improve, this team has to be considered one of the best in the league and a solid favorite in the NL Central.

The Reds were great offensively, even without their best hitter, Joey Votto, for about 50 games.  Had he had a full season, his 337 AVG would have led the team.  He only had 14 HR and 56 RBI (roughly on pace for 20 HR and 75 RBI over a full year), but a lot of those games he was able to play in had him fighting injury.  I think a full season of Votto will see him return to MVP like numbers with 300+ AVG, 25+ HR, 100+ RBI, 100+ R and 110+ BBs.  He could also approach 10 SBs.  He’s possibly the best hitter in the NL Central, right up there with Ryan Braun.  The actual team-batting champ was second baseman Brandon Phillips.  He hit 281 with 18 HR, 77 RBI, 15 SB and 86 R.  Phillips is one of my favorite players in the game, as he has plus power and speed to go with a good glove.  He can hit anywhere from first to fifth in the order, though he spent most of his time last year at cleanup.  He’s consistently good, though never an “elite” player.  But, I’ll take year after year of consistently good performances rather than “elite” play one year followed by a terrible crash in production.  You can pretty much pen him in for 275, 15+ HR, 75+ RBI, 75+ R and 15+ SB.  Some of that depends on where he hits in the lineup, but that’s great output for anyone, especially a second baseman.  The HR leader for this team was Jay Bruce, who also led the team with 155 games played.  He plays a very good right field, and led the Reds with his 34 HR and 99 RBI.  He also has surprising speed for a power hitter, swiping 9 bags.  His 252 AVG isn’t great, but if he’s going to be a pure power hitter, you’ll take 250.  He strikes out a ton, and his walk rate isn’t quite as high as you’d like from a slugger, but it’s hard to be upset with his production.  He’s slotted to hit in the middle of this order again, and 30+ HR in that park with Votto and Phillips in front of him is almost a lock.  He should also easily crack 90 RBI again, if he stays healthy.  SS Zack Cosart was also able to slug 15 HR.  You don’t expect that much power from middle infielders, and so the Reds having 2 that can hit 15+ is great.  His AVG wasn’t great at 238 and he doesn’t have a lot of speed (4 SB).  But hitting at the bottom of that lineup, they’ll take that AVG with his power cleaning up after the big guys, though 35 RBI to go with 15 HR is not good.  He needs to improve hitting with runners in scoring position.  The big find last season was Todd Frazier who hit 273 as a rookie with 19 HR, 67 RBI and 55 R.  He filled in well for Votto while he was hurt, and will take over for the retired Scott Rolen at the hot corner.  This team is excellent at hitting the long ball.  We’ve talked about Frazier, Votto, Phillips and Cosart, not to mention team leader Jay Bruce.  The man with the second most HR on the team was Ryan Ludwick who slugged 26 HR to go with a 275 AVG and 80 RBI.  He’s back for another season at Great American Ballpark.  In fact, most of this team is going to be the same.  The one big change was the loss of Drew Stubbs and addition of Shin Soo Choo.  He’s very similar to Brandon Phillips as a player who does a lot of things well, but nothing at an “elite” level.  But his consistent, strong play makes him a good fit for this team.  The risk is that he’s hitting leadoff for the first time ever, and playing center field for the first time ever.  I think it’s a big risk, but one that GM Walt Jocketty and Cincinnati needed to make.  Choo is a good defensive right fielder and should play a solid center field in the Great American Ballpark, which isn’t too spacious.  And while Choo isn’t a leadoff hitter, that has been a black hole in the Queens City for the last few years, and Choo will be better than anyone else in that role.  Last year Choo hit 283 with 16 HR, 67 RBI, 88 R and 21 SB.  His career 381 OBP makes the Reds think he’ll be successful hitting leadoff, but we won’t know until he tries.  I think it’ll work, and even if he’s not the best leadoff man in the game, this team hits enough HR to make it a moot point.  The Reds have someone capable of 15+ HR at every position but catcher, where Ryan Hannigan hits for a pretty high AVG (274 last year, 275 career).  The Great American Ballpark is a great park for power, and that’s the kind of roster that Jocketty has put together.  The Reds should have one of the best offenses in baseball again this year.  That is the key for them to contend, and I see no reason for them to not win the division this year.

While this offense has been very good, even before their stars reached their potential, this pitching staff has needed work.  But now they have a legitimate Cy Young candidate for an ace and a very strong number 2 pitcher to pair with a wily veteran in the third spot and two youngsters and a third young flamethrower to fill out the rest of the starting crew.  Once their pitching staff was average (and now it’s a bit better than average) this team got truly scary.  Johnny Cueto is the number 1 on this team, leading the Reds with 19 Wins, a 2.78 ERA and 217 IP.  He didn’t develop into the strikeout pitcher we all thought he’d be, but 170 Ks isn’t bad.  He is likely due for some regression following a 252 BAA, but that’s not that bad, and his 1.17 WHIP was good.  He doesn’t put people on.  And that’s really important when you pitch in Cincinnati.  And while guys are able to get hits off of him, he doesn’t beat himself and is able to strand runners.  That’s how he wins.  If he keeps that up, doesn’t walk guys and gets offensive support (never a problem for the Reds) he could win 15+ again with an ERA of around 3.  200 IP and 150+ Ks should be a cinch.  The number 2 man on this staff is Mat Latos, who went a 14-4 in his first season in Ohio.  He was second on the team with 209 IP and had a team leading 185 Ks.  His peripherals looked even better with a 230 BAA and 1.16 WHIP.  His 3.48 ERA was pretty good and with some better luck we could see that ERA drop and that win total climb a bit.  He’s good enough to be an ace and I think he should pitch at least as well as he did last year, if not better.  I’m plugging him in for around 15 Wins, 200+ IP, 170+ Ks and an ERA of about 3.25.  That’s super from a man who’s not considered your ace.  There was a slight drop off after those two, but not a lot.  Cincinnati had one of the best starting rotations in the game.  They had 4 starters surpass 200 IP and all 4 of those guys had sub-4 ERAs.  That’s huge.  None of these guys are going to win Cy Young awards (likely, possibly Cueto and maybe Latos has an outside shot), but having a third and fourth starter who can log that many innings and keep an ERA under 4 is phenomenal.  It’s the depth that’s impressive.  Arroyo was the veteran whose tutelage is invaluable to the young pitches.  Homer Bailey was the quick rising star who has cemented his spot in the rotation.  Arroyo was 12-10 with a 3.74 ERA and Bailey was 13-10 with a 3.64 ERA.  Both had 208+ IP.  Neither one had incredible peripherals (1.20+ WHIP for both and BAA over 250) but that’s pretty average.  And when we are talking about third and fourth starters you have to be happy with that, especially when those pitchers stranded runners well enough to keep their ERAs under 4.  The one weak spot in this rotation was the number 5 starter, but that’s expected to be the weakest part of your rotation.  Mike Leake made the most rapid rise to the majors, and didn’t pitch as well as his peers.  He went 8-9 with a 4.58 ERA with well above average numbers in the WHIP (1.35) and BAA (287) categories. But, again, we are looking at a 5th starter.  This guy could be a numbers 4 man on other teams.  And now he’s got competition to keep his job from Aroldis Chapman, who was an elite closer last year.  When Chapman joined the Reds and signed that big contract, it was with the expectation that he’d be a starter.  He started out as a lefty specialist from the bullpen, then a set up man and then a closer last year.  And that’s where he excelled.  He notched 38 Saves with a 1.51 ERA last season while striking out 122 in only 71 IP.  His WHIP was 0.81, his BAA was 141 and his fastball touched 105 MPH.  Those are video game numbers.  We’ll see how he does as a starter.  He’s got the velocity (expect a mid-90s fastball from him starting) and the mindset.  Recently we’ve had mixed success with relievers being moved into the starting rotation.  Some succeed (Kris Medlen[though he was always kind of a starter] Chris Sale, Alexi Ogando) and some don’t (Netali Feliz).  But if he can stay healthy I think he could lead this team in strikeouts, perhaps notching 200 in about 170 IP.  It’s hard to guess his ERA or know how successful he’ll be.  If this works out, the Reds will have 6 solid starters, and some trade bait to go after a bat or bullpen piece if necessary at the trade deadline, though this team really doesn’t have any weak spots.  If it doesn’t, then Chapman will go back to the 9th, where he is elite.  We are waiting to see what the plan will be, though Chapman recently came out and said he’d like to close, reversing his position from a few years ago.  Either way, I’d have him start later in the year, taking a Kris Medlen approach and begin the season in the bullpen, possibly closing.  Speaking of the bullpen, we are going to see Jonathan Broxton return to the 9th after a good half season in Kansas City.  He Saved 23 games for the Royals before joining the Reds at the trade deadline and notching 10 Holds and 4 more Saves.  His combined ERA was 2.48 and he had a healthy 45 Ks in 53 IP.  If he’s the same guy who was an All Star in LA, this will be a coup.  But, as it is, he should be in line for 30-40 Saves and I’d expect an ERA south of 3.  He leads a bullpen that also features Sean Marshall to setup and Jose Arrendondo to lock down the 7th.  It’s not the best bullpen on the planet, but it’s solid.

2013 Prediction:

The Reds were far and away the best team in their division last season.  They should be better this year with a full season of Jonathan Broxton, the addition of Shin Soo Choo and the Aroldis Chapman starter experiment.  This team can score runs with the best of them, and they have a much better group of starters than people realize.  2 are All Star Caliber, 2 more pitch like other teams number 2 starters, and the last spot has 2 options in a flamethrower from the bullpen and a youngster with experience and a solid stat line.  There is literally no weakness in this group.  Their talent, combined with the relative weakness of their division, makes them one of the strongest bets to win a division in baseball.  Things are looking good for the Cincinnati Reds.

Friday, March 15, 2013

Miami Marlins 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Football is done.  Spring training is in full gear and the WBC is nearing its end.  Everyone is heading out to purchase his or her fantasy baseball magazines.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I waited for most of the free agents to sign.  Others may sign after I talk about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team breakdown as necessary.  I started with the AL West, and have now moved on to the NL East.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the last team I’ll tackle in the NL East will be the Miami Marlins.

Miami Marlins:
2012 Record- 69-93 5th in the NL East

Projected Starting Lineup

C-            Rob Brantley
1B-            Logan Morrison
2B-            Donovan Solano
SS-            Adeiny Hechavarria
3B-            Placido Polanco
LF-            Juan Pierre
CF-            Justin Ruggiano
RF-            Giancarlo Stanton


Projected Batting Order

LF-            Juan Pierre
3B-            Placido Polanco
RF-            Giancarlo Stanton
1B-            Logan Morrison
CF-            Justin Ruggiano
C-            Rob Brantley
2B-            Donovan Solano
SS-            Adeiny Hechavarria

Projected Starting Rotation:
Ricky Nolasco, Henderson Alvarez, Jacob Turner, Nathan Eovaldi, Wade LeBlanc

Projected Bullpen:
Steve Cishek, Mike Dunn, Jon Rauch, Ryan Webb, Chris Hatcher, Evan Reed, Alex Sanabia

Well the Miami Marlins are something.  I could devote an entire blog to their dysfunction.  I’ve gotten into it in the past, here most recently.  And while it’s tempting to continue to talk about just how shameful and disgusting this ownership group is, I’m reminded of the phrase that no press is bad press.  And like the careers of the Kardashians or Paris Hilton, I don’t want to keep the interest in the Marlins alive by continuing to blast them.  They claim they hate it, but people continue to write about them and they continue to steal the spotlight.  So taking a page out of the Miami citizens book, I plan to just ignore the team.  That’s what ownership is doing.  And I don’t want to put more time into breaking down the team than Loria put into building it.  This ownership group doesn’t deserve any more of my time and energy, like it doesn’t deserve the support of the citizens of Miami Dade County.  It’s almost a shame that the World Baseball Classic is happening in Miami, since some portion of the tickets sold has to go to the Lorias.  I wish people stayed away to show major league baseball that that ownership group kills anything it touches, even things that it’s just hosting.  It would take money from them, and perhaps make the MLB lose enough money to make them do something about that sham of a front office the Marlins run.  Alas, it’s unfair to take all good baseball from the innocent Miami fans who just want to see some quality baseball.  They won’t see any once the season starts, so it’ll be nice to let them enjoy the WBC.  They certainly support that more than the Marlins do.  Time Brown wrote a great article about that.  You should check it out.  But for now, let’s talk about the players the Marlins haven’t traded away yet.

It’s tricky to break down this team in the way that I’ve done past teams.  That is mostly because I look at the team leaders from the past year, and usually at least some of them are around for the following season.  That’s not the case this year.  In addition, a lot of these players have little to no major league experience.  I could spend time looking up scouting reports and numbers from the minor leagues on some of these guys, but again, I run into the issue of not wanting to waste my time on a team that is run by a group that apparently has the same philosophy.  It’s not the players’ faults though.  And, if there are any Marlins fans left, it’s not their fault either.  So I’ll take a look at what I can and give my take on what to expect from this team in 2013 (Spoiler Alert:  they’re gonna finish last).  The batting champ of this team was Jose Reyes, who, of course, is now a Toronto Blue Jay (and so it begins).  Only three more players logged 100 games with this team, and one of them is gone.  Of the two that are left, only one is expected to start.  That is Giancarlo Stanton, who’s 290 AVG was the best of the remaining starters on this team (in at least 100 games).  He is also the HR and RBI leader with 37 long balls and 86 RBI.  His 75 R scored is also the tops among returning players, of which there are few.  So, no surprise, he is the offensive leader of this team.  After him, things are grim, and also incredibly raw.  There were some positive signs.  Justin Ruggiano hit 313 in 91 games while cracking 13 HR and swiping 14 bags.  Donovan Solano hit 295 in 93 games.  And Rob Brantley hit 290, though in a much smaller sample size of 31 games.  Logan Morrison is one of the few returning veterans, though he’s still pretty young, and he slugged 11 HR in 93 games.  That came with a 230 AVG, but he’s still improving.  A full season likely gives us 15+ HR.  Adeiny Hechavarria is a highly regarded prospect and the Marlins have also signed two past their prime veterans who will be leaders on this club.  The first is Juan Pierre, who had a very good season in Philly last year.  The veteran hit 307 playing in 130 games, much more than they planned for him to play, while stealing 37 bases.  He was solid in left field, and great at the bottom of the Phillies’ order.  In Miami, he’ll be expected leadoff most likely, and hopefully spark this offense by stealing bases and scoring runs.  He’s got blinding speed, but 100 R is a bit of a stretch because of the team behind him.  But if Stanton and Morrison have good years than a lot of R is a possibility for him, as is 40 SB in a full season and a 280+ AVG.  The other veteran Miami brought in was another former Phillie, Placido Polanco.  Polanco will join Pierre at the top of the order, likely hitting second while manning the hot corner.  He didn’t have a great year last year in an injury-plagued 90 games.  His AVG dropped to 257 and he only drove in 19 while scoring 28 R.  At 38-years old, there is clearly some concern that Polanco may not regain his All Star form, which is why no other teams took a flier on him.  So, left with no other options, Polanco will try to show he’s still got what it takes down in Miami.  He used to be one of the best number 2 hitters in the game; great with the bat, able to move runners over easily, and difficult to strike out.  There’s no speed or pop here, but this is a guy who consistently hit 275+, driving in 60 and scoring 80.  That’s a bit of a long shot this year, but he should be a good presence in the clubhouse and can still glove it at third.  And that’s pretty much all we know about the Marlins offense.  They are relying on two over the hill veterans to spark the offense and get on base so one great player can drive them in and a few youngsters might be able to clean up the rest.  This offense was put together with duct tape and shoestrings and leaves a lot to be desired.

Similar to the offense, players that are no longer playing in Miami-Dade County led this pitching staff.  Mark Buehrle led the Marlins with 13 Wins and a 3.74 ERA in 2012.  Josh Johnson led the staff with 165 Ks.  Both are now playing in Canada.  Ricky Nolasco was second on this team with 12 Wins, but that came with 13 Losses and a 4.48 ERA.  He’s now the ace of this staff.  Henderson Alvarez went 9-13 with a 4.85 ERA in Toronto last year.  That’s not great.  He’s likely the number 2 man on this staff.  Jacob Turner was a highly touted prospect in the Tigers organization.  He joined Miami as a part of the Anibal Sanchez/Omar Infante trade.  He went 2-5 with a 4.42 ERA in 10 starts between Detroit and Miami last season, though he pulled his ERA from 8.03 in Detroit down to 3.38 in Miami.  So that’s a good sign, not to mention the 208 BAA and 0.98 WHIP he gave the Marlins.  If he’s finally figured it out, his future looks bright.  Nathan Eovaldi went 4-13 with a 4.30 ERA in 22 games for the Dodgers and Marlins last season.  His high WHIP and BAA make even that mediocre ERA look unsustainable for the man who could be the number 4 starter in Miami.  Wade LeBlanc, the projected number 5 man, went 2-5 in 9 starts and 16 relief appearances for Miami last season with a 3.67 ERA.  He looks like one of their better pitchers.  Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz this rotation is not.  Nor is it Buerhle, Johnson and Sanchez.  And that’s what really irks Marlins fans.  Both of them.  This bullpen doesn’t look much better.  Steve Cishek is the closer and earned 15 Saves last season with a 2.69 ERA.  He took over for a struggling Heath Bell and played well enough to keep the job, which couldn’t have been too hard on this team.  Mike Dunn led the team with 18 Holds, but struggled with a 4.81 ERA, 1.77 WHIP and 283 BAA.  Not a great season for the man who looks like he’s going to be Miami’s setup guy.  Perhaps the 8th inning setup duties will fall to newly signed Jon Rauch, who was better than his record in New York for the Mets (3-7 with a 3.59 ERA, but also a 0.99 WHIP and 209 BAA).  The rest of the bullpen is young and unproven, and just looking to get major league experience.  As bad as the offense looked, this pitching staff looks even worse, in the greenest sort of way. 

2013 Prediction:

The first season of the Miami Marlins was an unmitigated disaster.  Whether you call them the Miami Marlins or the Florida Marlins, a rose by any other name couldn’t smell as shameful.  The team that made a ton of headlines this offseason is expected to struggle mightily.  None of the headlines were positive, and the current players were never involved in them.  The ownership group made headlines for taking the worst team in the NL East, and making them favorites to be the worst team in the NL.  Jeffrey Loria cemented his reputation as the worst owner in baseball and now has to be considered among the worst in all sports.  He’s certainly one of the most disliked, and the lack of fans coming to Marlins stadium helps attest to that.  No one expects anything of this club.  And they shouldn’t.  The players and manager Mike Redmond will use that for motivation, but the simple fact is, anyone who expects that Marlins to contend in any way knows nothing about baseball or is possibly related to David Samson.  Even when they had a much better group of players last year, I didn’t think they’d contend (my prediction was pretty close) and this ownership group had a lot to do with that.  The players that take the field for the Marlins are either too old (Polanco, Pierr), too young (everyone else not named Stanton, Morrison or Nolasco) or on the trading block (Stanton, Morrison and Nolasco).  It’s like 2/3 of a Goldilocks tale, except that no one is just right.  It’s all-wrong in Miami, and I expect their record, and attendance to reflect that this year as they finish in last in the standings and in the hearts of their countrymen.  

Friday, March 8, 2013

Philadelphia Phillies 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Football is done.  Spring training has started in earnest.  The World Baseball Classic is in full swing.  Everyone is heading out to purchase his or her fantasy baseball magazines.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I waited for most of the free agents to sign.  Others may sign after I talk about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team breakdown as necessary.  The AL West is in the books and we are in the middle of the NL East.  So, going based on last year’s standings, we are moving on to the team that finished third in the NL East, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies:
2012 Record- 81-81  3rd in the NL East

Projected Lineup

C-              Carlos Ruiz
1B-            Ryan Howard
2B-            Chase Utley
SS-            Jimmy Rollins
3B-            Michael Young
LF-            Domonic Brown
CF-            Ben Revere
RF-            Delmon Young

Projected Batting Order

SS-            Jimmy Rollins
3B-            Michael Young
2B-            Chase Utley
1B-            Ryan Howard
RF-            Delmon Young
C-              Carlos Ruiz
CF-            Ben Revere
LF-            Domonic Brown

Starting Rotation:
Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, John Lannan

Bullpen:
Jonathan Papelbon (closer), Mike Adams, Antonio Bastardo, Chad Durbin, Jeremy Horst, B.J. Rosenberg, Mauricio Robles

The Phillies had a down year last season.  After winning 5 straight NL East titles, the Phillies fell to third place in the division.  An aging roster and injures played a major role in the season’s outcome as the Phillies finally started to show some cracks.  They played strong in the second half to finish the season at 500, but their playoff fate was already sealed.  There is a common belief that the window for this team is closing.  Philly is hoping that it’s still open.  The rest of the division hopes it’s closed.  Either way, the Phillies will have to play like the team they were the previous 5 years (other than last year) if they want to contend with a great Nationals club and an improving Braves club. 

Offensively, Jimmy Rollins was the leader of this club.  His 250 AVG, 23 HR, 68 RBI and 102 R were all team highs.  His 30 SB were second on the club.  And while those are good numbers, 250 is not what you want your top hitter to be hitting.  23 HR, while good for a shortstop, isn’t what you are looking for from your team leader.  Same thing with the 68 RBI.  Other than the 102 R and 30 SB, which are great numbers, Rollins numbers weren’t good enough to be leading the team, and yet they were.  Why?  Because he was one of the few Phillies who stayed healthy.  He led the team in ABs and Games.  John Mayberry, Juan Pierre and Ty Wigginton were the only other guys, besides Rollins, to eclipse 120 games.  That’s not exactly a murderers row.  So, you can see how much injuries affected this team.  The good news, is that it’s not necessarily an indictment on this team.  Players weren’t bad, they just couldn’t stay healthy.  Darin Ruf hit 333 with 3 HR and 10 RBI in only 12 games.  He’ll be playing in the outfield this year, splitting time with Domonic Brown and playing in the outfield in the beginning of the season while Delmon Young is hurt.  Catcher Carlos Ruiz, a great defensive catcher his whole career, had a breakout season hitting 325 with 16 HR and 68 RBI, tied for the team lead.  And the injured players played well in limited time.  Chase Utley hit 256 with 11 HR and 45 RBI in a half season.  In a full season that looks like 22 HR, 90 RBI, 22 SB and 96 R.  Elite numbers for a second baseman.  A full season of Ryan Howard would have likely seen 30+ HR and 115 RBI (he had 14 HR and 56 RBI in 71 games).  So their core players still perform at a high level, they just weren’t healthy last year.  That’s the good news.  In addition, they’ve made some solid additions to this team after trading away Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence to help replenish their exhausted farm system.  They know their team is aging, and they have to plan for the future.  Shipping off those two guys was a start for this team.  In the offseason they added Michael Young from the Rangers and Ben Revere from the Twins.  Young will take over for the departed Placido Polanco at third.  Young hit 271 with 8 HR, 67 RBI and 79 R as a first baseman/DH in Texas last year.  He’ll take over the hot corner in the city of brotherly love and bat second.  He’s a pure hitter who can hit for good AVG and drive in runs.  His power is fading as he gets older, but he’s the perfect number 2 man.  He’ll deliver a plus AVG, drive in runs when he can and score a bunch.  And as a former shortstop he’ll still play a good third base.  I think this was a low risk move for Philly that greatly improves their club for this year.  The other move the Phillies made was to trade for Ben Revere.  Revere will play center field for the Phillies and perhaps leadoff in the future.  But for now he’ll hit a little lower in the order and focus on playing a good defensive center field and swiping some bags when he gets on base.  He hit 294 for Minnesota last year with 40 SB and 70 R.  He did all that in only 124 games.  He’s only played in 254 career games, but in that time has swiped 74 bags and scored 127 R.  He doesn’t have any power (0 career HR to this point), but he should be able to play good defense and provide some speed to the back end of this lineup.  He also provides some youth, along with Domonic Brown and Darin Ruff.  However one of those three outfielders will likely move to the bench when newly signed Delmon Young gets healthy.  Young spent the last few years with the Tigers after decent success in Minnesota and Tampa Bay.  Last season he hit 267 with 18 HR and 74 RBI in a stacked Tigers lineup.  He’ll likely hit 5th or 6th in the Philly lineup, and that ballpark should suit him and his power well.  If he’s healthy, we could see 20+ HR and 80+ RBI.  But with a bad hip, and his off the field issues, that’s a lot to hope for.  Luckily for Philadelphia, he was signed to a low risk, incentive laden contract.  If he can reign in his off-field behavior, then he should be good and provide some good power to this club.  Otherwise, the Phillies will let the 3 kids (Revere, Ruf, Brown) go for it all year in the outfield.

We just took a look at Philly’s offensive production last year.  But this team has lived and died with it’s starting pitching the last few years.  However injuries affected the rotation as much as it affected the offense.  Cole Hamels was one of the only guys who was able to say healthy all year, starting 31 games.  He led the team with 17 Wins, a 3.05 ERA and 216 Ks.  He also had a team leading 215 IP.  He pitched well enough to earn a big extension for big money.  He was an absolute ace last year, one of the best pitchers in the game.  With a 1.12 WHIP and 237 BAA his numbers seem stable.  The BAA looks a little higher than other elite pitchers, but his ERA was a little higher too.  He’s not someone who’s going to lead the league in ERA, but he’s a power pitcher who will rack up the Ks and eat innings.  The only other starter who was able to stay healthy for 30 games was Cliff Lee.  Lee had one of the strangest seasons in recent memory.  His peripherals were strong with a 3.16 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 207 Ks in 211 IP.  But he was only able to get 6 Wins to go with 9 Losses.  Sometimes strange things happen in baseball.  This just looks to be one of those things.  His 255 BAA was a tad high, but not that high.  He still should have had a winning record and at least 10 Wins with that low ERA and those high K numbers.  If he pitches this season as well as he pitched last season then he should bounce back.  It was truly an odd season for Lee, and I’m sure he looks forward to starting anew in 2013.  Their ace on paper is Roy Halladay, and he was not his dominant self last year.  He only started 25 games due to injury.  And the injury may have affected him even when he was “healthy” as his numbers were not nearly as good as he usually produces.  He went 11-8 with a 4.49 ERA.  He only had 132 Ks in 156 IP.  His BAA was 261.  His pitches just didn’t have the movement and effectiveness that we are used to seeing.  He hopes that he’s back to full health and that he will return to being one of the most dominant pitchers in the league.  At his age, (36 in May), that may be a lot to hope for.  But he’s just too good of a pitcher to play like he did last year.  If he’s back to full health, and pitches as well as he’s used to pitching, then this guy can lead one of the best staffs in baseball back to the postseason.  But that’s a lot to hope for.  With Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton out of the picture, Kyle Kendrick is ready to take back a spot in the Philly starting rotation.  The youngster was the odd man out the last two years, only filling in for injuries and at the end of last year.  But he was better than he’s ever been in his 25 starts last year.  His final 10 starts, he pitched to a 2.43 ERA.  He finally came into camp with a starting job already secured, and the 28 year old isn’t planning on losing it.  The Phillies took a chance on veteran John Lannan in the 5th spot of their rotation.  He only started 6 games in DC last season, but pitched pretty well.  He went 4-1 with a 4.13 ERA.  His record was very fortunate, with that ERA and 1.44 WHIP and 270 BAA.  Those aren’t great numbers.  But it’s pretty close to what he usually delivers.  Lannan is an innings eater who keeps his ERA competitive.  He’s not great, but is a solid pitcher who will keep his team in games.  The bullpen struggled last year, but not at the back end.  Jonathan Papelbon Saved 38 games last year with a 2.44 ERA.  He struck out 92 in 70 innings and turned in a 1.06 WHIP and 216 BAA.  He’s kept his BAA under 230 for 3 straight seasons and his ERA south of 3 for 2 straight years.  He gave up a career high in long balls last year, but he’s somewhat prone to that.  As long as he keeps runners of base, which has never been an issue with him, then he limits the damage while overpowering hitters at the end of games.  The bullpen had issues last year getting to Papelbon.  They addressed that by trading for Mike Adams to set up for Papelbon.  He’s had at least 27 Holds the last 3 years and is one of the premier set up men in the game.  With Adams and Antonio Bastardo in the 7th and 8th the Phillies think they’ll have enough of a bridge to make it to the 9th.

2013 Outlook:

The Phillies are better than a 500 team.  They have a lot of talent, but the worry is that they are aging.  And while players lose a little bit with age, the real concern is that these older players may not be able to stay healthy for a full season.  Their core of Utley, Howard and Rollins was only at 33% for all of last year.  Their ace was injured last year.  Their bullpen couldn’t make it through the middle innings.  But right now, they are all healthy.  If they are healthy, they think they can compete with the Nats and Braves.  Both teams were better last season and got even better in this offseason.  I think a full healthy season in Philly could see this team in a legitimate fight for second place in this division.  But I don’t think we will see a season of full health.  For that reason, I think they will be one of the best third place teams in baseball.  But that won’t be enough to make the playoffs.