Well it’s that time.
The season starts tonight.
I’m incredibly behind on my team breakdowns. And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading
into the new season. Well I’m here
to tell you. I started with the AL
West, and then knocked out the NL East.
I’m now into the NL Central.
And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank
them based on last season’s standings.
Using last season’s final standings, the third team in the NL Central is
the Milwaukee Brewers.
Milwaukee Brewers:
2012 Record:
83-79 3rd in NL
Central
Projected Starting Lineup
C- Jonathan
Lucroy
1B- Corey
Hart
2B- Rickie
Weeks
SS- Jean
Segura
3B- Aramis
Ramirez
LF- Ryan
Braun
CF- Carlos
Gomez
RF- Norichika
Aioki
Projected Batting Order
RF- Norichika
Aioki
2B- Rickie
Weeks
LF- Ryan
Braun
3B- Aramis
Ramirez
1B- Corey
Hart
CF- Carlos
Gomez
C- Jonathan
Lucroy
SS- Jean
Segura
Projected Starting Rotation:
Yovani Gallardo, Mcarco Estrada, Mike Fiers, Wily Peralta,
Chris Narveson
Bullpen:
John Axford, Burke Badenhop, Tom Gorzelanny, Mark Rogers,
Michael Gonzalez, Jim Henderson, Josh Stinson
The Brewers had a pretty average year. They finished the season a few games
over 500, but out of the playoff hunt.
They were out soon enough to be sellers at the trading deadline and they
parted ways with ace Zack Greinke.
This offseason they lost Shaun Marcum. And now, the only ace left in this starting group is Yovani
Gallardo. He’s paired with a bunch
of no-names, similar to the way John Axford is holding together a bullpen of
no-names, though there was concern that Axford was going to end up a no-name
himself after a bad year. But that
abysmal pitching staff is paired with a dynamic offense. So, pretty much the same Brewers we’ve
been seeing the last 8 years or so, except when they trade for pitching and go
for it (aka, the CC Sabathia years or the Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo
years).
Since I’m an optimist, let’s start with an offense that
looks optimal to say the least.
Ryan Braun was the Brewers triple crown winner last season, leading the
team in AVG (319), HR (41) and RBI (112).
He also led them in R (108), OBP (409) and Slugging (595), which made
him the OPS leader as well (987).
In addition, he was second on the team with 30 SB and had a fantastic
glove out in left field. He was
basically the whole enchilada. He
was my pick for MVP. And at this
point, assuming there are no developments in the Miami New Times drug stories,
you can pretty much pen in Braun for another season of about
320/40/110/100/25+. He’s possibly
the best hitter in the game. I
can’t think of many that are better.
And even the ones might challenge him for that title don’t run like he
does. (Trout is still too young to
be in this discussion). Braun is
the bees knees. But he wasn’t
alone. This whole team can
hit. Catcher Jonathan Lucroy had
to deal with injuries, but still hit 320 in 96 games with some nice pop (12 HR)
and an ability to drive in runners (58 RBI). Aramis Ramirez might be the most under-appreciated player in
the game, hitting behind Braun.
But his season featured a 300 AVG to go with 27 HR, 105 RBI and 92
R. And he’s slick with the leather
too. Japanese import Aioki hit 288
with 10 HR, 50 RBI, 81 R and 30 SB out of the leadoff spot. Corey Hart hit 270 with 30 HR, 83 RBI
and 91 R. Carlos Gomez hit 260
with 19 HR and a team best 37 SBs.
6 of their 8 position players were All Star caliber last year. And the other two feature a new kid
(Jean Segura, 264 w/ 7 SB in 44 games) and a star with a ton of talent, but who
underperformed last year (Rickie Weeks 230, but he still hit 21 HR, drove in 63
and swiped 16 bags). This lineup
is poised to continue driving in runs with the best of them. Aioki is a great leadoff man. Weeks struggled last year, but is
immensely talented. Braun is the
best hitter in the game. Ramirez
and Hart are both All Star caliber players each season and just overlooked when
it comes time to play the mid-summer classic. And Gomez finally found his stroke. Not to mention a stud catcher in Lucroy
who can hit for AVG and a speedy shortstop in Segura. You can’t go wrong.
Even if Weeks struggles again, Corey Hart can it second and Gomez and
Lucroy can each hit a spot higher in the order. Or maybe Lucroy hits second. Or Segura if he’s having a great day. But this lineup is stacked, and should
be among the best in baseball, let alone the NL Central. If pitching didn’t matter, this might
be the best team in the league.
Alas, pitching is a major part of this game, and that’s
where the Brewers are going to struggle.
Like Ryan Braun with the pitching stats, Yovani Gallardo led the team in
the major pitching stats with 16 Wins, a 3.66 ERA and 204 Ks. He was also the only Milwaukee pitcher
to reach 200 IP last season. But
even this ace wasn’t foolproof.
His 243 BAA was pretty average.
His 1.30 WHIP was actually below average, in a negative way. (Average is about 1.25…so Gallardo’s
was worse…that’s what I’m trying to convey). So while Gallardo was the ace, his numbers weren’t where we
expect aces be. But nitpicking on
the Brewers best pitcher is kind of a waste of time. He’ll be fine.
If he’s healthy, expect around 15 Wins with 200 IP/Ks and a sub-4
ERA. He won’t win a Cy Young, but
he’ll be playing well. But it’s
bleak after that. Zack Greinke is
gone. Shaun Marcum is gone. Even Randy Wolf, who had a bad year, is
gone. The returning player with
the next most starts is Marco Estrada with 23. He went 5-7 with a 3.64 ERA. Actually not too bad.
1.14 WHIP and 247 BAA looks good.
143 Ks in 138 IP. If he can
keep that up, he can challenge Gallardo for the best numbers on the staff. He’s young and lacks experience, but I
don’t see him being a problem this year.
I’m expecting double digit wins and a sub 4 ERA. Mike Fiers had 22 starts with a 9-10
record and 3.74 ERA. He, too, had
a high strikeout rate, 135 Ks in 127 IP.
Needs to lower his WHIP and BAA, but he’s even younger and less
experienced than Estrada, so he’s still learning. Who knows how his first full season will go, but he’s got some
talent. The top 3 shouldn’t hurt
the Brewers too bad, though you are counting on young guys for a lot. Maybe too much. Staying in the vein, we have Wily
Peralta. He had the best numbers,
but only 5 starts. He went 2-1
with a 2.48. That’s better than
having bad numbers in only 5 starts, but the sample size is way to small to get
a good idea about. His ceiling is
high, but we have to see how his first full season goes. Chris Narveson will probably take the
last spot, but that’s not exciting.
His ERA was 7 over 2 starts.
The Brewers would love Mark Rogers to take the last spot. He was 3-1 in 7 starts with a 3.92
ERA. Maybe he’ll get the
spot. Otherwise he’ll go to the
bullpen. The point is, while these
guys had limited success in an even more limited amount of time, to count on
them this much is a lot. And you
truly need these starters to excel to protect what may be the worst bullpen in
baseball. John Axford was a mess
last year with 9 blown Saves and a 4.67 ERA. His 1.44 WHIP was through the roof and he had more walks
(39) than Saves (37). If he can’t
lock down the last inning there is no hope in Milwaukee. There still may be no hope as the rest
of these guys are uninspiring. The
bullpen will struggle, especially if they log a lot of innings in relief of
these young guys.
2013 Prediction:
The Milwaukee Brewers are a confusing bunch. Their hitters are great. Their pitchers are struggling. Direction is very important for a
team. If you know you are
contending and going for it, fans understand it and watch it. If a team is rebuilding then fans
understand it and support it. If
you are somehow in the middle, no one knows what to make of you. Who builds a team good enough to win
80? What is the use of that? Save some money, re-build and trade
away pieces to get better in the future.
Or, spend some money, trade for some pieces and go for it now. The Brewers don’t seem to be doing
either. And that’s a place you
don’t want to be because you are wasting the prime years of that offense and
the patience of fans. I don’t
think this team will contend in this division. They will be a third or fourth place team, hovering around
500.