Sunday, March 31, 2013

Milwaukee Brewers 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  The season starts tonight.  I’m incredibly behind on my team breakdowns.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you.  I started with the AL West, and then knocked out the NL East.  I’m now into the NL Central.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the third team in the NL Central is the Milwaukee Brewers.


Milwaukee Brewers:
2012 Record:  83-79  3rd in NL Central

Projected Starting Lineup

C-            Jonathan Lucroy
1B-            Corey Hart
2B-            Rickie Weeks
SS-            Jean Segura
3B-            Aramis Ramirez
LF-            Ryan Braun
CF-            Carlos Gomez
RF-            Norichika Aioki

Projected Batting Order

RF-            Norichika Aioki
2B-            Rickie Weeks
LF-            Ryan Braun
3B-            Aramis Ramirez
1B-            Corey Hart
CF-            Carlos Gomez
C-            Jonathan Lucroy
SS-            Jean Segura

Projected Starting Rotation:
Yovani Gallardo, Mcarco Estrada, Mike Fiers, Wily Peralta, Chris Narveson

Bullpen:
John Axford, Burke Badenhop, Tom Gorzelanny, Mark Rogers, Michael Gonzalez, Jim Henderson, Josh Stinson

The Brewers had a pretty average year.  They finished the season a few games over 500, but out of the playoff hunt.  They were out soon enough to be sellers at the trading deadline and they parted ways with ace Zack Greinke.  This offseason they lost Shaun Marcum.  And now, the only ace left in this starting group is Yovani Gallardo.  He’s paired with a bunch of no-names, similar to the way John Axford is holding together a bullpen of no-names, though there was concern that Axford was going to end up a no-name himself after a bad year.  But that abysmal pitching staff is paired with a dynamic offense.  So, pretty much the same Brewers we’ve been seeing the last 8 years or so, except when they trade for pitching and go for it (aka, the CC Sabathia years or the Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo years). 

Since I’m an optimist, let’s start with an offense that looks optimal to say the least.  Ryan Braun was the Brewers triple crown winner last season, leading the team in AVG (319), HR (41) and RBI (112).  He also led them in R (108), OBP (409) and Slugging (595), which made him the OPS leader as well (987).  In addition, he was second on the team with 30 SB and had a fantastic glove out in left field.  He was basically the whole enchilada.  He was my pick for MVP.  And at this point, assuming there are no developments in the Miami New Times drug stories, you can pretty much pen in Braun for another season of about 320/40/110/100/25+.  He’s possibly the best hitter in the game.  I can’t think of many that are better.  And even the ones might challenge him for that title don’t run like he does.  (Trout is still too young to be in this discussion).  Braun is the bees knees.  But he wasn’t alone.  This whole team can hit.  Catcher Jonathan Lucroy had to deal with injuries, but still hit 320 in 96 games with some nice pop (12 HR) and an ability to drive in runners (58 RBI).  Aramis Ramirez might be the most under-appreciated player in the game, hitting behind Braun.  But his season featured a 300 AVG to go with 27 HR, 105 RBI and 92 R.  And he’s slick with the leather too.  Japanese import Aioki hit 288 with 10 HR, 50 RBI, 81 R and 30 SB out of the leadoff spot.  Corey Hart hit 270 with 30 HR, 83 RBI and 91 R.  Carlos Gomez hit 260 with 19 HR and a team best 37 SBs.  6 of their 8 position players were All Star caliber last year.  And the other two feature a new kid (Jean Segura, 264 w/ 7 SB in 44 games) and a star with a ton of talent, but who underperformed last year (Rickie Weeks 230, but he still hit 21 HR, drove in 63 and swiped 16 bags).  This lineup is poised to continue driving in runs with the best of them.  Aioki is a great leadoff man.  Weeks struggled last year, but is immensely talented.  Braun is the best hitter in the game.  Ramirez and Hart are both All Star caliber players each season and just overlooked when it comes time to play the mid-summer classic.  And Gomez finally found his stroke.  Not to mention a stud catcher in Lucroy who can hit for AVG and a speedy shortstop in Segura.  You can’t go wrong.  Even if Weeks struggles again, Corey Hart can it second and Gomez and Lucroy can each hit a spot higher in the order.  Or maybe Lucroy hits second.  Or Segura if he’s having a great day.  But this lineup is stacked, and should be among the best in baseball, let alone the NL Central.  If pitching didn’t matter, this might be the best team in the league.

Alas, pitching is a major part of this game, and that’s where the Brewers are going to struggle.  Like Ryan Braun with the pitching stats, Yovani Gallardo led the team in the major pitching stats with 16 Wins, a 3.66 ERA and 204 Ks.  He was also the only Milwaukee pitcher to reach 200 IP last season.  But even this ace wasn’t foolproof.  His 243 BAA was pretty average.  His 1.30 WHIP was actually below average, in a negative way.  (Average is about 1.25…so Gallardo’s was worse…that’s what I’m trying to convey).  So while Gallardo was the ace, his numbers weren’t where we expect aces be.  But nitpicking on the Brewers best pitcher is kind of a waste of time.  He’ll be fine.  If he’s healthy, expect around 15 Wins with 200 IP/Ks and a sub-4 ERA.  He won’t win a Cy Young, but he’ll be playing well.  But it’s bleak after that.  Zack Greinke is gone.  Shaun Marcum is gone.  Even Randy Wolf, who had a bad year, is gone.  The returning player with the next most starts is Marco Estrada with 23.  He went 5-7 with a 3.64 ERA.  Actually not too bad.  1.14 WHIP and 247 BAA looks good.  143 Ks in 138 IP.  If he can keep that up, he can challenge Gallardo for the best numbers on the staff.  He’s young and lacks experience, but I don’t see him being a problem this year.  I’m expecting double digit wins and a sub 4 ERA.  Mike Fiers had 22 starts with a 9-10 record and 3.74 ERA.  He, too, had a high strikeout rate, 135 Ks in 127 IP.  Needs to lower his WHIP and BAA, but he’s even younger and less experienced than Estrada, so he’s still learning.  Who knows how his first full season will go, but he’s got some talent.  The top 3 shouldn’t hurt the Brewers too bad, though you are counting on young guys for a lot.  Maybe too much.  Staying in the vein, we have Wily Peralta.  He had the best numbers, but only 5 starts.  He went 2-1 with a 2.48.  That’s better than having bad numbers in only 5 starts, but the sample size is way to small to get a good idea about.  His ceiling is high, but we have to see how his first full season goes.  Chris Narveson will probably take the last spot, but that’s not exciting.  His ERA was 7 over 2 starts.  The Brewers would love Mark Rogers to take the last spot.  He was 3-1 in 7 starts with a 3.92 ERA.  Maybe he’ll get the spot.  Otherwise he’ll go to the bullpen.  The point is, while these guys had limited success in an even more limited amount of time, to count on them this much is a lot.  And you truly need these starters to excel to protect what may be the worst bullpen in baseball.  John Axford was a mess last year with 9 blown Saves and a 4.67 ERA.  His 1.44 WHIP was through the roof and he had more walks (39) than Saves (37).  If he can’t lock down the last inning there is no hope in Milwaukee.  There still may be no hope as the rest of these guys are uninspiring.  The bullpen will struggle, especially if they log a lot of innings in relief of these young guys.

2013 Prediction:

The Milwaukee Brewers are a confusing bunch.  Their hitters are great.  Their pitchers are struggling.  Direction is very important for a team.  If you know you are contending and going for it, fans understand it and watch it.  If a team is rebuilding then fans understand it and support it.  If you are somehow in the middle, no one knows what to make of you.  Who builds a team good enough to win 80?  What is the use of that?  Save some money, re-build and trade away pieces to get better in the future.  Or, spend some money, trade for some pieces and go for it now.  The Brewers don’t seem to be doing either.  And that’s a place you don’t want to be because you are wasting the prime years of that offense and the patience of fans.  I don’t think this team will contend in this division.  They will be a third or fourth place team, hovering around 500.

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