Saturday, April 13, 2013

Los Angeles Dodgers 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Baseball is underway.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I started with the AL West, then knocked out the NL East and Central.  I’ve now moved on to the NL West.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the second NL West team I’ll take a look at will be the Los Angeles Dodgers.    


Los Angeles Dodgers:
2012 Record:  86-76  2nd in the NL West

Projected Starting Lineup

C-            A.J. Ellis
1B-            Adrian Gonzalez
2B-            Mark Ellis
SS-            Hanley Ramirez
3B-            Luis Cruz
LF-            Carl Crawford
CF-            Matt Kemp
RF-            Andre Ethier

Starting Rotation:
Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Chad Billingsley

Bullpen:
Brandon League, Kenley Jansen, Ronald Belisario, Matt Guerrier, JP Howell, Scott Elbert, Aaron Harang, Ted Lily

Projected Batting Order

LF-            Carl Crawford
2B-            Mark Ellis
CF            Matt Kemp
1B-            Adrian Gonzalez
SS-            Hanley Ramirez
RF-            Andre Ethier
C-            A.J. Ellis
3B-            Luis Cruz

The Dodgers are coming into their first full year of new ownership.  The team was sold last year, and now the new owners, headed by the Gugenheim group, Magic Johnson and Stan Kasten, are ready to take the NL by storm.  After spending nearly $2 billion to buy the team, the owners found out they’ll make roughly half of that back in a local television deal alone.  So they started spending big time, and hope to have purchased themselves a team with enough talent to win the NL West.

Last year’s Dodgers were solid, but a vastly different looking group than this year’s bunch.  Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier were the offensive leaders for this team even though Matt Kemp missed about 50 games.  Ethier led the team with a 284 AVG, 89 RBI, 79 R and was second on the team with 20 HR.  Matt Kemp was the team HR leader, even with all the games he missed.  When healthy, he was great hitting 303 with 23 HR, 69 RBI, 74 R and 9 SB.  With all the new players that were brought on, you wouldn’t realize that the number 3 offensive man on this team was catcher A.J. Ellis who had a breakout season.  He hit 270 with 13 HR, 52 RBI and 44 R.  He slowed down in the second half, and you worry about a catcher his age having a career year.  Luckily the Dodgers won’t be counting on him for another big year.  During last season, the Dodgers traded for Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Hanley Ramirez.  Then in this offseason they signed Zack Greinke and Hyun Jin-Ryu.  Hanely Ramirez joined the team first and had a pretty decent season between the Dodgers and Marlins.  He’s not the top fantasy player in the game anymore, but he was still a 20/20 man hitting 257 with 24 HR, 92 RBI, 79 R and 21 SB.  That’s great.  We are just used to numbers that have been a lot better in the past.  He split time between short and third, but played mainly short in LA.  He wants to play short, and was supposed to play short this season with Luis Cruz starting at third.  No one other than manager Don Mattingly thought that was a good idea, as Dee Gordon would then be in the minors though he is a far superior player to Luis Cruz.  The thought is that Hanley wouldn’t be happy at third and therefore will play better as a shortstop.  However, I hate that with a fiery passion, as people need to stop bending to Hanley Ramirez.  Tell him to be a team player and play the position he’s better at, third base.  It’s better for the team.  Few people frustrate me more than him.  Put him at third, let Dee Gordon play and the Dodgers will have the best team out there.  Or maybe ask Gordon to play third.  I bet he could.  Anyway, it’s moot for a while as Hanley Ramirez will miss the season’s first month, maybe longer with injury.  With Hanley gone, this team will lean even more heavily on Adrian Gonzalez who is expected to be an anchor in this lineup.  Despite a rough season in Boston and a power outage in LA, Gonzalez still played well hitting 299 with 18 HR, 108 RBI and 75 R between the two clubs.  The concern is the drop in HR for 3 straight seasons.  But this guy used to mash in Petco, one of the worst HR parks in the game and played well in this division.  While the pitching may have gotten better, you have to think that he’ll be able to find his power stroke.  Even if he doesn’t return to his previous highs, I think he can still be a 300 hitter with 20+ HR power.  Possibly 30 HR is a possibility.  But 100+ RBI was easily attained last season, and you could see up to 120 in a strong season hitting behind a solid group.  Toss in 80+ R and a possibility to be a truly elite first baseman, whether he hits 20 HR or 30.  The other big offensive question in LA is Carl Crawford.  Crawford might miss some time while recovering from Tommy John, but who knows how he’ll play when he returns.  After being a perennial stud in Tampa Bay, he really struggled in Boston.  He had one bad season, before having last year cut short due to injury.  He’s worth taking a flier on, though you worry about speed guys getting into their 30s.  If healthy, I’m thinking 275 with 80 R (allowing for missed time, but still putting him first or second in the order) and 30 SB.  He’s got an outside shot at 300 with 100 R and 40 SB, but I’d set my expectations lower.  Those guys are the studs, and there are a lot of them.  Matt Kemp is one of the best players in the game, Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford are great in the corners, Adrian Gonzalez could be great at first, and the rest of the infield of Hanley Ramirez, Mark Ellis, Luis Cruz and Dee Gordon ranges from great, to average to questionable.  But they should be average, at worst and possibly more.  The other fun thing about this offense is to look at all the possible ways you can build it based on who’s healthy at any time.  Here’s a few:

SS-            Dee Gordon                                                OR                        LF-            Carl Crawford
3B-            Hanley Ramirez                                                            SS-            Dee Gordon
CF-            Matt Kemp                                                                        CF-            Matt Kemp
1B-            Adrian Gonzalez                                                            1B-            Adrian Gonzalez
RF-            Andre Ethier                                                                        3B-            Hanley Ramirez
LF-            Carl Crawford                                                                        RF-            Andre Ethier
C-            A.J. Ellis                                                                        C-            A.J. Ellis
2B-            Mark Ellis                                                                        2B-            Mark Ellis


OR

LF-            Carl Crawford
RF-            Andre Ethier
CF-            Matt Kemp
1B-            Adrian Gonzalez
SS-            Hanley Ramierz
C-            A.J. Ellis
2B-            Mark Ellis
3B-            Luis Cruz

The possibilities are endless.  But we know this lineup will be without Ramirez and Crawford for a while, and Gordon will get some time near the top and the others will follow in any number of ways, with Kemp and Gonzalez hitting third and fourth.  No matter what the lineup is, as long as those guys are in the middle driving in runs, then you have to like what the Dodgers will do offensively.

While this Dodgers offense featured a number of different leaders, this pitching staff was led by one man…Clayton Kershaw.  He led the team with 14 Wins, a 2.53 ERA and 229 Ks in a team leading 227 IP.  His 1.02 WHIP was spectacular and his 210 BAA was even better.  This guy is one of the best pitchers in the league, and was near the top in Cy Young voting a year after winning the award in 2011.  Consider him to be a frontrunner for the award this year, and another season of 215 IP, 220 Ks, sub 3 ERA and 15 Wins, though 20 is a real possibility.  The number 2 man in this rotation was Chris Capuano, who was fantastic last year.  However he may not even crack the starting 5 this season.  Capuano went 12-12 with a 3.72 ERA in 198 IP.  He struck out 162, second on the team.  Chad Billingsley is likely going to get the 5th spot in this rotation.  The man who never lived up to his potential went 10-9 last year with a 3.55 ERA in 25 starts.  He struck out 128 in 145 IP, and if fully healthy could have won 15 games.  He likely won’t strike out 200, or reach 200 IP this year.  But he’s not being counted on to be a number 2 man. As a number 5 man his injury concerns might be assuaged by extra rest.  Either way, Billingsley is going to be a great number 5 man, as opposed to a bad number 2 man.  The new number 2 man is free agent Zack Greinke, who went 15-5 with a 3.48 ERA with the Dodgers and Angels last year.  He started 34 games, striking out 200 in over 200 IP.  After signing a big deal, Greinke will be one of the best number 2 pitchers in the game, while not having to be the ace.  Kershaw is the ace.  Greinke is the number 2 man.  Beyond that, there are questions, but the depth is truly impressive.  Josh Beckett is expected to be the number 3 man, which may play better to his talents at this point in his career.  He struggled in Beantown last year going 7-14 with a 4.65 ERA.  His K rate is down, his velocity is down and his WHIP and BAA were both well above average.  The concern is that Beckett, who was always a power pitcher, doesn’t know how to really pitch with his diminished stuff.  If all he can be is an innings eater, then that’s fine.  He’s getting paid more than an innings eater is worth, but that’s clearly not an issue for this team.  As long as he keeps the Dodgers in games, they will be happy with him.  Think, 10 Wins and an ERA around 4 with 170+ IP.  And if he bombs, there is a lot of depth behind him.  And if he’s great, then no one will complain.  The other wild card is Korean import Hyun-Jin Ryu.  He was an All Star in the KBO (Korean Baseball League) winning Rookie of the Year and MVP.  Players from the Asian markets aren’t always successful here, but Ryu has the size that others didn’t have (except for Darvish, who has been good in one year) and often their first year is their best year.  If that is the case here, then you have to like the way the Dodgers are built for 2013, clearly going for it all.  Even if Ryu and Beckett can’t get the job done, the Dodgers have the aforementioned Capuano (who was great last year) and Aaron Harang, who played well going 10-10 with a 3.61 ERA.  He wasn’t an All Star with a very high 1.40 WHIP and 246 BAA, but he kept the team in games while logging 179 IP.  That great starting rotation can feel good handing the game off to a strong bullpen featuring 2 closers in Brandon League and Kenley Jansen who had 31 Saves between them.  This team may not have the best pitching in the game, but they’ve got the deepest pitching, especially in the division.  With this staff supporting a great offense, I see the Dodgers winning a lot of games and contending in the NL West.

2013 Prediction:

The Dodgers were a good team last year.  They finished in second in the division, but outside of the playoffs.  This year, they got even better, and I think they can be good enough to get into the playoffs, if not win the division outright.  A lot of it depends on how the injuries go, but assuming they break the Dodgers way, then I think this team has to be a favorite to win the division.

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