SEATTLE MARINERS: 71-91 (4th Place in AL West)
Projected Lineup/Batting Order:
LF Dustin Ackley
3B Kyle Seager
2B Robinson Cano
DH Corey Hart
1B Justin Smoak
CF Michael
Saunders
RF Logan
Morrison
C Mike Zunino
SS Brad Miller
Projected Starting Rotation/Key Bullpen Arms:
SP Felix
Hernandez
SP Hisashi
Iwakuma
SP Taijuan
Walker
SP Erasmo
Ramirez
SP James Paxton
RP Fernando
Rodney
RP Tom Wilhemsen
RP Charlie
Furbush
The Mariners were probably the least talked about team in
the AL West last year. The Rangers and
A’s were good. The Angels were
disappointing. And the Astros were
terrible. That left limited column
inches for a 71 win team that plays in the Pacific Northwest. But the Mariners then went out to make a
splash this offseason with their signing of Robinson Cano to a 10 year $240
million dollar deal. With a respectable
number 3 hitter on this club, the Mariners hope their ancillary pieces can
finally settle into their roles on this team and play within themselves. And the hope is that those players, teamed
with a superstar, will be enough for Seattle to make it to the postseason.
This team was offensively challenged again last season, as
it has been for roughly the last 5 years.
Their leading hitter was Kendrys Morales, who played some first and some
DH for them and is on the free agent market looking for a job. He hit 277 with a team leading 23 HR and 80
RBI. When a guy leads the team in all
three categories, you want those numbers to be higher. Smoak will be at first and either Corey Hart
or Logan Morrison, two other new additions will DH and play right field. You can’t put them both in the field though,
because that would mean Dustin Ackley would go to the bench, or move to center
where his weak arm is a liability. That
would also mean that Michael Saunders, really the only guy who can play center
for this team, would go to the bench. As
far as the Morrison/Hart discussion goes, Hart is the better fielder, but is
coming off knee issues, and played first more recently. I put Morrison in right for now, but if Hart
is healthy expect him to play the field more with Morrison in as the DH. Both of these guys are being relied upon to
provide protection for Cano. Hart missed
all of last season with an injury but hit 270 in 2012 with 30 HR. The years before were 285 with 26 HR and 283
with 31 HR. So we know what he used to
do consistently. The Mariners hope he
won’t miss a beat getting back to action.
But he is a bit of a wildcard.
Morrision is arguably a bigger wildcard.
He only appeared in 85 games last year with a 242 AVG and 6 HR. He’s never topped 123 games in a season, but
that year he did was his best with 23 HR.
That’s the hitter Seattle hoped they got, but as a career 249 hitter,
power is about the only thing he potentially brings to the table. And even that’s unsure. The Mariners had to
do something though. Without those 2,
the only protection for Cano would be Justin Smoak. Smoak had another Smoak-like season. His AVG is abysmal (238 last season) but he
showed prodigious power (20 HR in 131 games).
The past 3 years he’s logged 120+ games with an AVG south of 240 and 15+
HR. That’s fine for a 7 hitter
perhaps. But they need him to do
more. He’s not a cleanup guy with that
AVG, but at this point that may be the only kind of player he knows how to
be. He’s the starting first baseman if
he performs, but with a career 227 AVG, he may be sharing time. And if that’s the case things likely aren’t
going well in Seattle. All those guys
exist to protect the new free agent signee Robinson Cano in this lineup. He is far an away their best hitter and first
legitimate hitting threat in years. Last
year’s stat line of 314/27/107/81 was actually a bit of decline from his best
numbers. That just lets you know how
good he is. You can pencil him in for a
300+ AVG each year. The move to Seattle
from the New York bandbox won’t help his power, but 20 seems like a lock with
100 RBI if men get on base in front of him.
The only thing he doesn’t do is steal bases, though he swiped 7 last
year. He will be a great addition in
Seattle. The question is, will he have
any RBI opportunities? The leadoff spot
is a serious question. Dustin Ackley is
the first choice to leadoff due to his pedigree. He was the second overall pick in 2009. So they’ve put a lot of time and energy into
him and want him to work out. He
struggled in 113 games last year with a 253 AVG and only 2 SB. His OBP was 319, which is okay but not great. He’s moving to a new position as he’s a
natural second baseman. But with Cano in
town, he’ll move to left and try to leadoff.
But he’s a risk. If he can’t
succeed in the number 1 spot, then SS Brad Miller will be the leadoff man. Miller was a rookie last year who hit 265 in
76 games with 8 HR. He’s not an ideal
leadoff choice, which is why I put him in the 9th spot. If neither Ackley
nor Miller can get it done leading off, perhaps Michael Saunders will leadoff
as he’s got some speed. But at 236 with
12 HR, they see him hitting lower in the lineup, cleaning up for the heavy hitters. Their best hitter from last year, third
baseman Kyle Seager, is supposed to hit second.
He hit 260 with 22 HR and 9 SB last year. He also scored 79 R. He could leadoff, but they like him hitting
second in front of Cano. They hope he’ll
see lots of fastballs, which could lead to 25 HR. Hard to know.
But the top of the Mariners lineup is messy, meaning Cano’s RBI numbers
could be limited. The last member of
this offense is Mike Zunino, who isn’t known for his offense. Also, expect to see a lot of Abraham Almonte
as he’s a better defensive player than Hart, Morrison and now Ackley, who is in
a new position. He actually led off in
the Mariners’ season opener. This team
has potential, but even with the addition of Cano, one of the best offensive players
in the game, this offense is not a sure thing and a major question mark going
into the season.
Defensively, this team doesn’t look like the surest
bet. Justin Smoak is average, at best,
at first. Cano is great at second and
Miller is strong at short. Seager
similarly, is pretty good at the hot corner.
Then it gets iffy. Dustin Ackley
is learning a new position in left field.
He’s got a weak arm, which is why he’s there as opposed to right or
center. He’s got good speed and great
athleticism playing second base before this.
But that’s a tough move. Michael
Saunders isn’t a natural center fielder, but should be okay there. And right field is another question
mark. Morrison isn’t great in right,
playing more left and first base. But
he’s young and fairly athletic. Hart is
better in right, but has bad knees, potentially, and played first more
recently. I’m not saying either one of
them will be a problem, but there are questions there.
The one area where the Mariners feel great is on the
mound. Felix Hernandez is a legitimate
ace. He was 12-10 last year with a 3.04
ERA and team leading 216 Ks in 204 IP.
He’s among the best in the business and will likely be again. If healthy, 200+ IP with 200+ Ks and an ERA
around 3 should be guaranteed. What he’s
hoping is that a better offense will make his Win number grow (because he
generally pitches well enough to win 15-20 games) and see his loss total
decline (as he gets no run support, and pitchers who give up fewer than 3 runs
often don’t deserve to lose). Hasashi
Iwakuma was arguably the best pitcher in Seattle last year. He led the team with 14 Wins and a 2.66
ERA. He also logged the most innings at
219. He’s less of a sure thing, but in
two years he’s made 49 starts going 23-11 with a career 2.84 ERA. The other positive sign is Iwakuma’s WHIP,
which fell 27 points last year from 2012 and his BAA which went from 248 to
220. All the numbers look strong and
Iwakuma looks to be a legitimate number 2 starter in this league. The rest of the rotation isn’t as
clear-cut. Erasmo Ramirez is expected to
be one of those middle of the rotation arms.
He struggled with a 4.98 in 13 starts last year. It wasn’t pretty, but the year before was
much better with a 3.36 ERA in 8 starts.
He’s young, so they hope he can start a full season and turn in some
competitive innings for the club. If he
does, he has to cut down on the walks and lower that WHIP. That’ll go a long way towards helping his
overall numbers. I put James Paxton in
the last spot in the rotation. He went
3-0 in 4 starts last year with a 1.50 ERA, sub 1 WHIP and 172 BAA. He struck out 21 in 24 IP. And while those numbers look great, those
were his only 4 career starts. So we’ll
see how he does over a full year. They
plan to protect him a bit by making him the number 5 man. The most exciting man in this rotation might
be youngster Taijuan Walker. He went 1-0
in 3 starts last year, the only 3 of his career. He wasn’t as hot as Paxton, but struck out 12
in 15 IP with a 3.60 ERA. They love his
stuff, so we’ll see what he can do. He’s
an exciting young arm and they expect him to be a future ace. But, like Paxton, we don’t know much about
him yet as his experience is extremely limited.
It’s nice to like the future there, but I’d expect the same growing
pains that every young pitcher goes through.
With all those young pitchers, you need a strong bullpen. And Seattle looks like theirs is in good shape. It’s anchored by new closer Fernando
Rodney. Rodney didn’t follow his record
setting season with one quite as strong in Tampa last year. But he still saved 37 games for the Rays
with a 3.38 ERA. His 82 Ks in 66 IP were
very impressive but his 1.34 WHIP was way too high, especially with hitters
hitting only 211 off of him. He’s got to
cut down on the walks, or he will be in trouble. The good news is Seattle is one of the best
pitchers parks in the game, which is why so many of Seattle’s pitchers looked
good last year. If he locks down the 9th,
the Mariners can count on Tom Wilhemsen and Danny Farquhar in the 8th. Charlie Furbush can spot start and fill the
long reliever role and give this team a strong bullpen from top to bottom. People like pitching in Seattle, and these
guys are no exception.
Outlook/Prediction:
The Mariners were in that dreaded middle area of a team that
wasn’t re-building but wasn’t ready to go for it all. Then this year they decided to make a
push. They signed Cano to a 10 year deal
and added some offense in the form of Corey Hart and Logan Morrison. They added a legitimate closer to strengthen
an already strong bullpen. And their
starting rotation continues to look good.
So they hope to start winning now.
The bad news is that they play in arguably the best division in the game
and things don’t look easier for them this year.
They have some talented young pitchers as King Felix is
still under 30 and Taijuan Walker and James Paxton are extremely young. Ackley, Miller and Seager are still young and
Cano is in his prime. The future looks
okay, but not as strong as other teams.
The present looks good, though again not as good as other teams. So despite the improvements, this team still
looks to be a middle of the road club, just one that spent a lot more money
this offseason.
I think the Mariners will be better. But I don’t know that they move up the
standings very far. The Rangers and A’s
are still better. The Angels are still
better on paper. And Houston’s future is
brighter. I’m picking the Mariners to
win more games than Houston this year, but that’s about it. I’m sorry to disappoint people in the Pacific
Northwest, but this offense only looks good enough to win 75 games, even with
this pitching staff. Which makes me pick
the Mariners to finish fourth in this division.
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