TEXAS RANGERS: 91-72 (Second Place in the AL West)
Projected Starting Lineup:
LF Shin Soo Choo
SS Elvis Andrus
1B Prince Fielder
3B Adrian Beltre
RF Alex Rios
DH Mitch Moreland
C Geovany Soto
CF Leonys Martin
2B Jurickson
Profar
Projected Starting Rotation/Key Bullpen Arms:
SP Yu Darvish
SP Derek Holland
SP Matt Harrison
SP Martin Perez
SP Tanner
Scheppers
RP Joakim Soria
RP Neftali Feliz
RP Alexi Ogando
The Texas Rangers had a disappointing year last season. They won 91 games, but didn’t make the
playoffs with the A’s winning the division for a second straight year and Tampa
Bay and Cleveland both winning 92 games.
So they were the best team in baseball that didn’t make an appearance in
October. They wanted to fix that, so
made some serious changes this offseason.
The made a major trade to bring in Prince Fielder to take over at first
and added Shin Soo Choo in free agency.
With this offense looking potent and their pitching strong again, this
team looks like it will make some serious noise in baseball’s best
division.
They get started right away with Shin Soo Choo leading off
and playing left. He was exceptional in
that role last year with the Reds. After
spending the majority of his career hitting in the middle of the Cleveland
order, the Reds looked at his OBP numbers and speed and decided that he’d be a
great leadoff guy. They were right. He hit 285 with an NL best 423 OBP. He swiped 20 bags and scored 107 R, while
still showing his power with 21 HR. I
expect hit to have similar success in Texas with another 280+ season and OBP
close to 400. He should score over 100
runs again sitting atop a strong lineup in Texas and 20 HR is still in
reach. He will be great leading off, and
moving to left field will help his defense a bit. He’s a natural right fielder so left won’t be
an issue. His defense in center was not
good in the Queens City last year. Elvis
Andrus will bat second and play short again for Texas. His 271 AVG was a bit down for him, but
pretty close to his career mark. And he
still scored 91 R and swiped 41 bags as the fastest player on the team. His defense was excellent as well. I’d expect more of the same assuming full
health. While I personally would put
Prince Fielder in the cleanup hole, manager Ron Washington has said that he’ll
bat him third. He’ll be a great addition
in Texas and will finally be that first base threat they have lacked since Mark
Teixeira’s departure. He hit 279 last
year with 25 HR and 106 RBI. And that
was one of his worst seasons. I think
that a move to Texas will see that HR total climb north of 30 again, though I
don’t put 40 out of reach. If he accepts
that he doesn’t have to hit 300 and focuses on slugging, another season of 270+
with over 100 RBI is easily in his grasp and perhaps a return to the 40 HR
territory. Beltre will be the cleanup
man according to Washington, though I think he’s the better 3 option. It’s not just about Beltre being more likely
to hit 300, it’s the fact that Beltre and Rios are righties and Fielder is a
lefty. Why not break them up? Washington says that they are all good enough
to hit both lefties and righties, which I don’t disagree with. But since they can all hit in all three spots
according to Washington, why not break up the righties? And Beltre is better in the 3-hole. But this offense will still be fine. Beltre is still their best hitter, hitting
315 last year with 30 HR, 92 RBI and 88 R.
He’s had a career renaissance in his later years and you worry about
time catching up with him. But he’s been
great since his move to Arlington, and you have to think his floor is at least
All Star caliber. Alex Rios will hit 5th
in this lineup after coming over from the White Sox at last year’s trade
deadline. And as is often the case with
guys who were overpaid at some point, people don’t realize how great he’s been
the last few years. Without making any
waves or being noticed, he’s put together some incredible seasons in Chicago
and now Texas. Between the two teams
last year, he hit 278 with 18 HR, 81 RBI, 83 R and 26 SB. Who knew?
I did but I pay more attention than most people. That’s right what we expect from him as he’s
a career 278 hitter with no fewer than 13 HR in a season (and in that season he
only played in 145 games). Spending a
full year in Texas with that great lineup in front of him, he might top 20 HR
and 100 RBI. If not, another 275+ year
with 15 HR, 90 RBI, 80 R and 15 SB is his floor, and we could see more across
the board. That’s the heart of the
Ranger lineup, and it looks good. Unlike
most super teams, this offense drops off a bit after the number 5 man in the
order. But the rest of the lineup is
still good with potential to be more than that.
And Texas is a super team because their top 5 are SO good and they have
pitching to back them up. But let’s look
at the rest of the lineup. Mitch
Moreland will be the primary DH after being unable to lock down the first base
job last year. However he can play
first, so in addition to DHing, he can let Fielder DH and fill in for him at
first, let Rios DH and move to left (with Choo moving back to his natural right
to fill in for Rios). And obviously his
move to left can also spell a day at DH for Choo. So while he isn’t the most frightening DH to
behold, his ability to play the field and give others a day off is part of what
makes him attractive. And he’s not a bad
hitter with 23 HR last year. But that
came with a 232 AVG and only 60 RBI. So
he is limited offensively. Catcher
Geovany Soto will follow hitting 7th. In 54 games last year he showed he’s still
got something in the tank with a 245 AVG and 9 HR. It wasn’t a ton, but he’s good defensively
and can do a little something with the bat as well. He’ll start behind the plate. His back up will be J.P Arencibia from
Toronto. The Rangers signed him to back
up Soto and be a right handed hitting DH option so Moreland doesn’t have to
face left handed pitching. We all know
his limitations with the 194 AVG. But
he’s got a ton of power with 21 HR last year.
In Texas that could swell to 25 HR.
Not bad at all for a backup catcher.
Leonys Martin will hit 8th, but could end up as a better
hitter than that. He hit 260 last year
with 36 SB. He’s a menace on the base
paths, but hitting so low in the lineup limited him to only 66 R. It’s great for a number 8 man though, and he
will be a great option to get on base for the top of the order, which includes
a leadoff man with 20+ HR power. I’m
putting Jurickson Profar 9th to let him take it easy. He’s got great potential but struggled last
year moving around the diamond. They
hope playing a full year at second and not being counted on for much
offensively will allow him to turn his potential into big league success. This may not be the best offense in baseball,
but it’s certainly one of the better ones.
Defensively this team seems to be in pretty good shape. Fiedler isn’t great at first, but he’s not as
bad as most people believe. Up the
middle the Rangers are in fantastic shape with the potential to win Gold Gloves
with both Profar at second and Andrus at short.
Beltre is the best defensive third baseman in the game and the outfield
is phenomenal. Choo is a natural right
fielder with center field experience.
He’s in left. Martin plays Gold
Glove caliber defense in center and Rios is great in right. Soto is solid behind the plate, and Mitch
Moreland plays left field just fine and first base better than Fielder. So defense won’t be an issue in Arlington
this year.
Starting pitching has started to steal the spotlight from
the Rangers’ offense. Yu Darvish was an
absolute ace last year and he leads a host of talented young arms. Darvish led all MLB with 277 Ks to go with a
13-9 record and 2.83 ERA. As far as the
pitching Triple Crown, Darvish won 2/3 of it with a better ERA and more Ks than
Max Scherzer. He threw 209 IP with a
1.07 WHIP and 194 BAA. All the numbers
were great. He was one of the best
pitchers in the game last year, and he could be a 20 game winner with 200+ IP,
250+ Ks and an ERA around 3. This guy
really is the epitome of an ace. He
started the year injured, but has come back already and is looking great. After him, they have some young guys to fill
in because Derek Holland hurt his knee badly and is on the 60 day DL. He’ll be eligible to come off in late May,
but who knows when he’ll be ready to pitch.
So the new number 2 man is probably Matt Harrison, who only made 2
starts due to injuries last year. Those
starts were pretty bad with 11 ER in 10.2 IP, but he blames a lot of that on
the injury. He did have 12 Ks in those
10.2 IP. In 2012, he went 18-11 in 213
IP with a 3.29 ERA. If he’s healthy,
he’ll be their number 2 man and that’s what they want to see from him. But he’s not healthy. He hasn’t pitched yet this year, and likely
won’t be back until mid-May. The next
most seasoned option for the Rangers has to be youngster Martin Perez,
especially after his strong season last year.
He made 20 starts last year going 10-6 with a 3.62 ERA. He puts runners on with a 1.34 WHIP and 267
BAA. But the walks aren’t too bad and he
did earn 84 Ks in 124 IP. If he keeps
putting people on base, then that ERA will swell to over 4, but he’s a young guy
who could potentially get better. They
love his stuff, he’s working on a cutter and he had some success last
year. This guy will be a big part of the
Rangers rotation going forward, and they hope he makes a big leap forward this
year. Derek Holland (10-9, 3.42, 189 Ks
in 213 IP) will be back at some point.
He’s not an ace, but eats innings and keeps runs off the board, if not
runners off the bases. Tanner Scheppers had
a strong spring and won a spot on the rotation, and actually the Opening Game
start for Texas with all their pitching injrues. Scheppers didn’t make any starts last year,
but was great in relief with a 1.07 WHIP and 214 BAA. Robbie Ross wasn’t as
good out of the pen, but still strong with a 4-2 record and 3.03 ERA in 62 IP. The Rangers wanted Tommy Hanson to win a spot
in the rotation but struggled so badly in the Spring after a bad year with LA
that he was cut. So the starting
rotation is quite thin. I though Alexi
Ogando would move from the bullpen to the starting rotation, but they like him
better in relief. So the Rangers signed
Joe Saunders to fill in for the injured Harrison and Holland. The veteran was 11-16 in 32 starts with the
Mariners last year. But even in pitching
friendly Seattle he had an ERA over 5, a WHIP of 1.60 and a BAA over 300. All of those numbers are really bad. But he can eat innings and has proven to be a
reliable starter in the majors, so he’s starting in Texas. Or he was. But he just went to the 15 day DL
after being hit in the ankle with a comebacker on Friday. So the hits just keep on coming. That’s Harrison and Holland who haven’t made
a start, Saunders who just went down and Darvish who missed a week to start the
season. Bad news for the Rangers thus
far when it comes to starting pitching.
Robbie Ross was fighting with Tanner Scheppers for a spot in the
rotation, but is now back as the 5th starter. He appeared in 65 games for Texas last year,
but all in relief. He turned in a 3.03
ERA with 58 Ks in 62 IP in that time, but put on way too many runners, both via
the hit and the walk. He’s got to keep
that under control. He had a nice spring
and has looked good in his 2 starts this year, so that’s a positive. But right now Texas is just treading water
until their starters get healthy. And
they will rely a lot on the bullpen.
Luckily it looks good. Alexi
Ogando is a former starter and All Star reliever, and he’s back where he’s
really great, in relief. He’s got a
fireball and some good movement. Facing
the lineup once, he’s nearly unhittablel.
Jason Frasor is another talented arm in the pen. But the focus this year is on the
closer. Joe Nathan is gone. Neftali Feliz is healthy and probably done
trying to start. Joakim Soria is healthy
and ready to compete. The fight was
between the two of them to close, and Soria won it. And he’s a good choice. Since 2007, here are his Save/ERA splits:
17/2.48 (also 9 Holds as that was his rookie year with
Kansas City)
42/1.60
30/2.21
43/1.78
28/4.03
That takes us through 2012, with that last season in 2012
being his worst. He then played with the
Rangers last year in a setup capacity.
He had 6 Holds in 26 games with a 3.80 ERA. Feliz was bad this spring, and sent to the
minors to work, but he’s waiting in the wings.
This bullpen may need him eventually as they will throw a lot of innings
early on. But hopefully Texas’ starters
will get healthy fast and this team will be back to their winning ways. But if Texas struggles this season, it will
be due to their injured pitching staff.
Outlook/Prediction:
The Rangers look to be one of the best teams in
baseball. They also have a great mix of
strong veterans and young potential.
Leonys Martin and Jurickson Profar are young talents in the field. Martin Perez, Tanner Scheppers and Robbie
Ross are young starters. That bodes well
for the future. In addition, right now they
have stars at first, third, short and in the corner outfield spots, not to
mention an absolute ace atop their rotation.
Their pitching was strong last year.
Their hitters struggled a bit, but got upgraded with Fielder and
Choo. And they still have Rios, Beltre
and Andrus. I like those offensive
upgrades. But they have to muddle
through their early pitching injuries.
If they do, I think they are the best team in this division. If they struggle, Oakland will win
again. But I think once they get
healthy, this team will make a run and win the division, and possibly 98 games.
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