Minnesota Twins 2014 Team Breakdown

MINNESOTA TWINS:  66-96 (4^th in the division)

Projected Lineup/Batting Order:

CF        Alex Presley

2B       Brian Dozier

1B       Joe Mauer

LF        Josh Willingham

DH       Jason Kubel

RF        Oswaldo Arcia

3B       Trevor Plouffe

C          Kurt Suzuki

SS        Pedro Florimon

Projected Starting Rotation/Key Bullpen Arms:

SP        Ricky Nolasco

SP        Phil Hughes

SP        Samuel Deduno

SP        Kevin Correia

SP        Vance Worley

RP       Glenn Perkins

RP       Anthony Swarzak

RP       Brian Duensing

The Twins are still in the middle of their re-build.  They are one of the smaller market teams in the big leagues, and spend money accordingly.  However, as occasionally happens with smaller teams, they did decide to give one monster contract to one player.  And that was hometown hero Joe Mauer, who is a batting champ and former catcher.  The Twins knew they had to keep him healthy, so the last few years he’s been moonlighting at first and DH.  As of this season however, he is moving to first base full time.  Mauer is great, but he can’t do it alone.  And that’s a problem because he also can’t do all the Twins need him to do.  He makes far too much money, based on what Minnesota can spend.  And because of that contract, the re-build is going slower than expected with patchwork pieces filling in around their one star.

Nowhere is this piecemeal approach clearer than on the offensive side of things.  The lineup is anchored with Joe Mauer playing first and hitting third.  He continued to hit for a great average (324) but not the power you’d expect from a first baseman (11 HR).  However that was only in 113 games as a concussion limited his output.  Assuming he’s healthy he should be a cinch for 320 again.  But the question is will he ever develop into the power threat they need him to be.  His career high in HR is 28 in 2009.  After that year it’s 10 or less and he’s missed quite a few games.  So, in some ways the 11 HR in 113 games was a step forward.  In 2010 he hit 9 HR in 137 games and then in 2012 he hit 10 in 147.  So if he can develop power he can drive in 80+ runs while continuing to hit 320.  But likely, he’ll lose some average points if he swells to 20 HR.  They’d love a 20 HR season at 300.  But it’s more likely we’ll see 12-15 HR with a 310 AVG.  He’s not the problem, but he’s not all they need him to be either.  After Mauer, the drop off is precipitous.  I have Alex Pressley leading off after hitting 275 in 57 games last year.  The former Pirate did drop off in Target field though, falling from 283 with Pittsburgh to 264 in Minnesota.  There’s not a lot of speed or a high ceiling here, but he’s probably the best option.  If Aaron Hicks can learn to hit that’s who they’ll want leading off.  But if he only hits 192 again then he’ll stay the 4^th outfielder.  I put their second best offensive player in the number 2 hole for now.  That’s second baseman Brian Dozier.  Dozier hit 244 last year but also popped 18 HR while swiping 14 bags.  The AVG isn’t great, but hitting second they hope he can see some fastballs and turn them into homers.  He may only be a power/speed guy, but that makes him one of manager Ron Gardenhire’s best weapons.  After Dozier, Mauer will hit third.  I have Josh Willingham hitting cleanup.  If any one player can help turn around their fortunes it’s the Twins left fielder.  In 2012 he hit 260 with 35 HR and 110 RBI.  Last year he hit 208 with 14 HR and 48 RBI.  At this point in his career he’s just a slugger, and that’s fine.  But they need him to be closer to his 2012 self, not 2013’s disaster.  Think, 240 with 25 HR.  It’s not great, but it would suffice.  If he struggles again, maybe Gardenhire switches him and Dozier.  Or just drops Willingham in the order, though the options to move up aren’t the most attractive right now.  Jason Kubel was re-signed to try to find the Minnesota magic that marked the beginning of his career.  2 years ago he had 30 HR.  Last year injuries derailed him.  He signed a minor league deal with incentives to make the big league club.  I don’t think he’ll be back to his old self, but I also don’t think there is enough talent in Minnesota to keep him off the big league club.  I’ll put him down for 230 with 15 HR.  And that’s the number 5 hitter.  Things only get worse from here.  Oswaldo Arcia showed some great power in 97 games last year with 14 HR and 43 RBI to go with a 251 AVG.  Ideally, that continues.  But as pitchers become more familiar with Arcia, I think he’ll digress a bit.  Maybe he stays at 250, but I don’t think we’ll see 30+ HR.  I’m putting him down for 240 and 15.  I think that would be a successful season for the Twins.  The bottom of the lineup will be made up of third baseman Trevor Plouffe (254, 14 HR), catcher Kurt Suzuki (232, 5 HR) and shortstop Pedro Florimon (221, 9 HR, 15 SB).  Plouffe is the best hitter of the trio, and could move up if Arcia, Kubel or Willingham struggle.  Then bench is limited with Chris Herman as left fielder/catcher with a 204 AVG in 56 games, Eduardo Escobar (236/3/10) who is best known for breaking up Yu Darvish’s no-hitter to start the season and Jason Bartlett, who the Twins are giving another shot at short.  Bartlett has been a disaster and didn’t even play last year, so him making the team is cloudy, much less him having any real impact.  So that’s the Twins offense.  Or, as most people refer to them, Mauer and some other dudes.  It’s not a potent offense by any means, but they can scrape together some runs here and there.  But that likely won’t be enough most games.

The biggest issue in Minnesota last year was the rotation.  And GM Terry Ryan fixed it.  They added Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes to the top of the rotation to augment Vance Worley, Samuel Deduno and Kevin Correia.  Worley, their opening day starter, was a mess in 10 games before being sent to the minors.  He had a 1-5 record to go with a 7.21 ERA.  He’ll have a shot to be the 5^th starter, but he’ll have to improve.  Correia will be their number 4 man after going 9-13 with a 4.18 ERA in 31 starts last year.  That’s not good by any means, but at least he’s the 4^th starter.   This isn’t a championship team, but to have a number 4 starter with his experience and ability to keep the team in games (for about 5 innings generally) is a real help.  Samuel Deduno had a strong season in his 18 starts.  I put him down to be their number 3 man.  He went 8-8 with a 3.83 ERA.  He won’t win a Cy Young, but a sub 4 ERA from a number 3 starter on a re-building team is almost a luxury.  And with his youth, you like his upside and potential.  So the Twins clearly have some back end depth.  They needed top of the rotation men.  But they couldn’t justify spending that much on a team that won’t be contending for anything.  So they compromised a bit, bringing in better guys with experience, but not breaking the bank.  They added Ricky Nolasco to be their de facto ace but only gave him 4 years for $49 million.  He went 13-11 between Miami and Los Angles last year with a 3.70 ERA.  He wasn’t as good with the Dodgers as Miami is a better pitching park.  But Target Field is a good place to pitch.  I’m thinking he could win 15 and turn in a 3.50 ERA.  But that’s probably his ceiling.  A more realistic expectation may be 12 Wins and a 3.75 ERA.  He may pitch well enough to win 15, but this team won’t do him any favors.  After Nolasco, Phil Hughes steps into the number 2 hole after signing a 3 year $24 million dollar deal.   He’s a bit more of a wildcard and struggled last year going 4-14 with an ERA over 5.  I don’t think he’ll completely return to his All Star form, but getting out of Yankee stadium should be every pitcher’s dream.  I suspect an ERA around 4.25 and maybe 10 Wins.  That could come with 10 losses, but I could see him get to 200 IP.  It’s not ideal for a number 2 man, but for Minnesota it’s a tremendous upgrade.  And if any of those guys struggle, perhaps Mike Pelfrey fills the void.  The starters only have to give them 6-7 good innings before the bullpen can bail them out.  Brian Duensing, Jared Burton and Casey Fien all turned in sub 4 ERAs in a fair number of innings and look like great bullpen pieces.  Anthony Swarzak pitched to a 2.91 ERA.  And Glenn Perkins had a 2.30 to go with 36 Saves, a sub 1 WHIP and a sub 200 BAA.  Those numbers are All Star worthy.  It’s rare that a re-building team has a strong bullpen, but this team does and will use it a lot to keep them in games.

Outlook/Prediction:

The long-term outlook for this team is better than the short-term outlook.  They have the best prospect in the game in Byron Buxton who is a star centerfielder in the minors for them.  They also have a star in 3B Miguel Sano (though he’s gone for the year due to Tommy John) and 2B Eddie Rosario.  Plouffe and Dozier had good years last season, so perhaps they are trade bait.  Or maybe the youngsters can play other positions.  Who knows?  But the Twins have a ton of talent in the minors on its way.  The pitching is a little thin, but there are some solid stopgap options.  With Mauer, Dozier and Plouffe, this team has a solid infield.  Perhaps having Buxton in center with Willingham and maybe Arcia gives them a competitive outfield.  And with some veteran innings eaters starting for a talented bullpen, this team could get better soon.  Maybe approach 500.  But that is likely next year.  This year will be a struggle.  Maybe they trade Plouffe or Willingham for pitching help.  Maybe these starters sort themselves out and play well in Minnesota this year.  But everything will not go right at the same time.  They won’t rush Buxton or Sano and they won’t be a contender either with this offense.  I’m thinking a good season is 70 wins, but this team likely finishes in the 60s.  And I’m putting them down for a last place finish in the AL Central.

Kansas City Royals 2014 Team Breakdown

KANSAS CITY ROYALS:  86-76 (Third in the AL Central)

Projected Starting Lineup/Batting Order:

RF        Norichika Aioki

2B        Omar Infante

LF        Alex Gordon

1B        Eric Hosmer

DH       Billy Butler

C          Salvador Perez

3B        Mike Moustakas

CF        Lorenzo Cain

SS        Alcides Escobar

Projected Starting Rotation/Key Bullpen Arms:

SP        James Shields

SP        Jeremy Guthrie

SP        Jason Vargas

SP        Wade Davis

SP        Danny Duffy

RP       Greg Holland

RP       Aaron Crow

RP       Luke Hochevar

Last year has to be seen as a successful season for the Royals.  True, they didn’t make the playoffs, but they were in the hunt at the end of the year and finished above 500.  Their 86 Wins was the most for this team since 1989.  And seeing how the Pirates slowly crept forward until accomplishing both a winning season and playoff berth in the same year, the Royals think they must be close.  I think they are right.  But the whole team sagged tremendously last year with bad seasons from Alex Gordon, Alcides Escobar and Mike Moustakas.  The pitching kept them alive, but they’ve lost Ervin Santana, one of their best pitchers from a year ago.  If the offense steps up, they have a chance, but there is no question that their pitching staff is significantly weaker than it was last year.  If this team is planning on making another step forward and perhaps playing some October baseball, then this offense needs to make some serious improvement to support a pitching staff that doesn’t look to be as strong going into this season.

The biggest offseason move by the Royals was a trade to add Norichika Aioki from the Brewers for lefty reliever Seth Smith.  Aioki can take over at the leadoff spot for the Royals, since Alex Gordon sagged to a 265 AVG last year.  He also had 20 HR, and they want that in the middle of their lineup.  Aioki hit 286 with 20 SB and 80 R.  He’s not a sexy player, but does his job.  His SB total dropped from 30 to 20 in one year, so that’s a bad sign.  But the OBP and R are what the Royals care about and he’s been over 350 and 80 in both categories in both of his MLB seasons.  This is an upgrade, especially over Jeff Francoeur, who was their starting right fielder last season.  The other big offseason move for the Royals was to sign Omar Infante to play second for them for the next 4 years.  It was a $30+ million move for them, which is a lot for a small market team.  But he’s a good player and will be great for them.  I have him hitting second on this club.  Injury limited him to 118 games for Detroit last year, but he still hit 318 with 10 HR, 51 RBI and 54 R.  His SB total went from 17 to 5, but I think the 17 was an outlier.  This guy might take 10 a season, but that’s all extra.  He’s a career 279 hitter with an OBP around 320.  Perfect number 2 man, with double-digit pop in his bat.  Those 2 moves enable Alex Gordon to move to third in the lineup, where maybe his 20 HR will result in more than the 81 RBI he had last year.  His 90 R likely come down hitting third, but if this means 100 RBI, then the Royals win.  He will never be a star, but I think 270 with 20 HR, 100 RBI, 80 R and 10 SB is great, especially for a Gold Glover.  I have first baseman Eric Hosmer hitting cleanup, one of the few Royals to play well last year.  He didn’t hit with the power that they wanted, but he did hit 302 with 17 HR, 79 RBI and 86 R.  And he also tossed in 11 SB, one of the few first baseman that can help on the base paths.  It’s hard to know what to expect from him as his only other full season in the majors included a 232 AVG.  But he’s always been around 15 HR with SB totals of 11, 16 and 11 again.  I think 280 with 15 HR, 80 RBI and R and 10 SB is a good bet.  Their star DH Billy Butler will also be a part of the middle of the lineup.  He also had a down year, by his standards, with only 15 HR and 27 2Bs.  I’m betting he returns to 290+ with 25 HR, 100 RBI and 70 R.  Then the Royals have Salvador Perez behind the plate, who I’ve listed as the number 6 man.  Last year he played in 138 games, his most in the majors.  In his previous 2 years before that he had about 100 games and hit 331, then 301.  After hitting 292 last year he has a career average of 301.  That’s great.  Add to that 13 HR and you have a future star at a position where offense is sometimes considered a bonus.  I love his ceiling, but his floor is likely another 280+ season with double digit HR.  The bottom third of the order is harder to predict.  Mike Moustakas has the most talent out of the guys left, and I have him hitting 7^th.  He’s underwhelmed thus far in his short career, hitting 233 last season and only 242 the season before.  His power also fell from 20 HR to 12.  That’s not what they expected from him.  Now third base has recently become a fairly shallow position offensively in the league, but that doesn’t mean they don’t want more from a corner infielder.  They’d like him to work on everything, but if he can’t the good news is that he’s in the bottom third of their lineup.  With Lorenzo Cain any offense is a bonus.  He played the most games in his career as well last season.  And he was pretty average.  251 with 14 SB.  He’s got speed, but he’s in the lineup for his glove.  That led me to putting Alcides Escobar 9^th, as sort of a backup leadoff man for Kansas City.  He was perhaps the biggest down year culprit on the team.  His AVG tumbled from 293 to 234.  He lost 72 points off his OBP while seeing his 35 SB from 2012 turn into only 22 in 2013.  That’s not surprising as he was on base less.  That’s why his R total fell also.  However he had about the same number of HR and RBI, so perhaps he was trying to put the ball into the air too much.  Though people with 5 HR don’t really have that problem often.  Who knows why he struggled?  But it was bad.  And it’s what knocked him from 2^nd in the order to 9^th in my projections.  If he can find his way back to his 2012 numbers, he may re-take the number 2 spot since his upside is much higher than Infante’s, and that allows their second baseman to drop to 9^th, where a 300 hitter really is a backup leadoff man.  But if not, he’ll stay mired in the bottom of the order.  The Royals actually have a very deep bench.   The outfield features Jarrod Dyson and Justin Maxwell for depth, and former starting second baseman Johnny Giovatella is also around.  None of these guys is overly exciting, but all can play defensively, and not kill you at the plate.  However if any of them log serious playing time, then the Royals are in trouble.

The defense looks solid.  Eric Hosmer is great at first and Infante, a natural shortstop, is even better at second.  Alcides Escobar is one of the best defensive shortstops in the game.  Alex Gordon won a Gold Glove in left in his career and Cain and Aioki can go get it.  Nobody else is great or terrible, so things look good for Kansas City in the field.

The questions continue when you look at the Royals’ starting group.  James Shields is the only non-question.  He’s an ace.  13-9 last year with a 3.15 ERA.  He had 196 Ks in 228 IP.  He’s a horse with 2 CG, a 1.24 ERA and 251 BAA.  He’s not like other aces (the WHIP and BAA are very average) but he eats innings, can strike a guy out and he knows how to win.  And, most importantly, he doesn’t give up runs.  He’s more ideally a number 2 man, but why fuss over what he’s not when he’s pretty close to a number 1.  It’s the days he’s not pitching that the Royals have to worry about.  Jeremy Guthrie is likely their number 2 man.  That’s not where he belongs in a rotation.  He’s an easy number 4 starter.  He went 15-12 with a 4.04 ERA last year.  He’s good at stranding runners when you consider that his BAA was 285 and he had a 1.39 WHIP.  But putting that many guys on base mean some will score, hence the 4.04 ERA.  It is what it is, but it shouldn’t be the second best pitcher on your team.  Jason Vargas is their number 3 man, and he’s another true number 4 starter.  He went 9-8 in 24 starts with the Angels last year.  His 4.02 ERA is similar to Guthrie’s.  Neither one is bad, but neither is the guy you want on the mound in a key playoff game.  And since Shields is only one man, you’ll have to likely turn to one of them at some point to win some key games.  At least Guthrie made it to 200 IP, Vargas only logged 150 in his fewer starts.  But assuming both are healthy earning the title “innings eaters” are likely the ceilings for these two veterans.  They are clearly a step above Wade Davis, who I’ve inked in as the number 4 man.  But a 5.32 ERA is not at all good.  His career ERA is only 4.26, so expecting him to be much better may be unreasonable.  He’ll be the number 4 man, and I don’t expect a lot from him.  The real question is what comes next.  They want it to be Danny Duffy, but he’s still making his way back from Tommy John.  He made 5 starts last year and was great going 2-0 with 22 Ks in 24 IP.  But he walked WAY too many and his career ERA is 4.75.  He’s far from a sure thing, and with injury concerns he may be diminished.  So the backup plan is Yordano Ventura.  He made 3 starts last year going 0-1 with a 3.52 ERA.  Those are the only 3 starts he’s made in his career.  So he’s another wildcard.  This team needs more depth in their starting rotation.  Specifically, they need another ace type pitcher who can be the other man they count on when Shields isn’t available (which will be for about 80% of the games btw).  But with all the free agent starters gone, this team is out of options.  They will endure, and hope their fantastic bullpen can stay healthy, give them scoreless middle innings, and win games.  Greg Holland was, for my money, the best closer in the AL last year.  He struck out 103 in 67 IP with a 1.21 ERA and 47 Saves.  He didn’t officially get the job until around May, so his numbers could have been better.  His WHIP was under 1 and his BAA under 200.  He’s one of the best in the business.  So if the Royals can get to the 9^th with a lead, then they will be in good shape.  One of the biggest changes that would help the Royals is for Aaron Crow to return to All Star form.  He was fine last year, but not great with his 3.38 ERA.  His WHIP and BAA ballooned, which didn’t help the Royals.  If he can return to his 2.76 days as a set up man that will go a long way towards keeping the team in the playoff hunt.  He still has good stuff as his average of 1 K per IP shows.  Kelvin Hererra is another regression case as his 2013 ERA rose from 2.35 to 3.86.  They need him to improve as well, as one of these 2 has to set up for Holland.  I’d also expect to see lots of Luke Hochevar.  He was phenomenal in 58 games out of the bullpen ERA pulling his ERA down to 1.92.  He’ll start if he has to, but his career ERA there is 5.10.  So they want to keep him as a reliever.  But I’d expect him to fill a lot of innings between starters and Greg Holland.  The Royals have a lot of good arms in the pen.  If they pitch their best, then this weak starting rotation may be okay.  If not, then the Royals will likely struggle and miss the playoffs again.

Outlook/Prediction:

The overall outlook for Kansas City is positive as they have a strong young core and more talent on the way.  But the talent is a ways off as the top of their farm system is in the majors already.   Right now, this major league team is filled with questions.  Will the Royals suffer another team-wide underperformance?  Can Aioki be the leadoff man they want?  Will Gordon be better?  Will Escobar be better?  Can the starters, other than Shields, keep this team in games?  Will the bullpen make it to Holland?  That’s a lot to be unsure of.  I think that being in the AL Central helps this team as the White Sox and Twins are re-building and the Indians are due for regression.  I think this team can win 80 games again, but 85 may be a stretch.  I’ll put them second in the division, but out of the playoffs. 

Detroit Tigers 2014 Breakdown

DETROIT TIGERS:  93-69 (First in AL Central)

Projected Lineup/Batting Order:

CF        Austin Jackson

RF        Torrii Hunter

1B        Miguel Cabrera

DH       Victor Martinez

2B        Ian Kinsler

LF        Andy Dirks

C          Alex Avila

3B        Nick Castellanos

SS        Jose Iglesias

Projected Starting Rotation/Key Bullpen Arms:

SP        Justin Verlander

SP        Max Scherzer

SP        Anibal Sanchez

SP        Rick Porcello

SP        Drew Smyly

RP        Joe Nathan

RP        Phil Coke

RP        Joba Chamberlain

In modern sports today, every team has one goal:  to win a championship.  This means that in each sport, every team but one fails.  The Detroit Tigers were one of the teams that failed.  Now, they won their division, won over 90 games, beat the A’s in the ALDS and took the Red Sox to 6 games in the ALCS, before losing to them and losing the pennant.  Most teams would consider that a fairly successful season.  But not the Tigers.  They were the preseason favorites and expected to run away with the AL.  They have been for about 2 years.  And they have been unable to win the ultimate prize.  Two years ago they won the AL pennant, but technically took a step back last year.  So this offseason they needed to make some changes.  That’s difficult for teams that have as much money invested in winning now and have been so close to success.  But they did make changes.  And for that I applaud Detroit.  They made a big trade to fill second base with an All Star.  It also provided some salary relief.  And while they lost a power bat in Prince Fielder, they drastically improved their infield defense moving Miguel Cabrera to first.  They have plenty of pop in this lineup and it’s still to be feared, even without Prince.  The real area the Tigers needed to improve upon was their bullpen.  They were stuck financially last year and couldn’t get a real closer.  With the money they saved sending Prince to Texas, they added Joe Nathan to close and Joba Chamberlain to the middle relief corps.  This was the final step for this team.  So now they hope they can finally take that last step, and become World Series champs.

The offense looks stacked once again.  They were led by Miguel Cabrera in all three of the Triple Crown categories.  He hit 348 with 44 HR and 137 RBI.  While Trout is probably the best player in the game, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Cabrera is the best hitter.  And he did all that in 148 games as he got hurt at the end of the year and played in the playoffs at less than 100%.  He’ll get his numbers and I think he’s a cinch for 330+ with 40+ HR and 120+ RBI.  That’s an incredible floor.  He’ll be hitting behind two very good hitters in Austin Jackson and Torii Hunter.  Jackson hit 272 last year with 12 HR and 99 R.  He does everything you’d expect from a leadoff hitter but steal bases (8 for 12…not good).  His OBP is below what the ideal leadoff man does (337) but it’s not bad.  He had an MVP caliber season in 2012, and maybe splitting the difference will net the Tigers a 300 leadoff man with the 350 OBP they want and perhaps 10+ SB and 110 R.  But he’s great atop the lineup and adds double digit HR.  Torii Hunter was second on the team with a 304 AVG last year.  The ageless one also added 17 HR, 84 RBI and 90 R.  I think to expect a repeat is unlikely, but 270+ with double digit HR, 70 RBI and 80 R is a real possibility, unless age finally drops him off the map.  But I don’t think that’s likely.  The new cleanup hitter will be Victor Martinez, as he moves up from the 5 hole to fill Prince’s vacancy.  He was third on the team with a 301 AVG to go with 14 HR and 83 RBI.  Not a huge drop off for Detroit.  What Martinez lacks in power he makes up for in AVG.  Then you have Ian Kinsler to consider.  I put him 5^th, but he can hit anywhere in the top 5.  If for some reason Jackson can’t get on base or starts hitting too many long-balls to justify a spot outside of the heart of the order, Kinsler spent the majority of his career hitting leadoff.   If Torii Hunter falls off his pace or gets hurt, he’d be a perfect number 2 hitter.  In fact I really like him there.  If Victor isn’t getting it done in the cleanup spot, I could see moving Kinsler to third, Cabrera to 4^th and letting Martinez settle back in hitting 5^th.  I think that’s the least likely scenario, but Kinsler could roll with it.  In an interview with Dan Dickerson, the Tigers radio voice on my radio show The Foul Pole, Dan believed that Kinsler would lead off with Austin Jackson hitting second and Torii Hunter moving his power to the 5^th spot in the order.  Though he conceded he wasn’t sure and thought that Jackson and Hunter could switch spots.  Kinsler has always had crazy seasons, hitting either 300 with 15 HR or 260 with 30 HR.  Seriously.  Here are his AVG/HR splits since 2008:

319/18

253/31

286/9

255/32

256/19

277/13

He seemed to be on a power surge with lower AVG recently, until last year when he finally split the difference.  Injury limited him to 136 games last year where he hit 277/13/72/85/15.  He’s a 5-tool player, just not displaying all 5 tools on a yearly basis.  To me, he is one of the most interesting players in the game.  But his OBP is always high, and he can adjust to what a team needs.  I’ll put him down for 270 with 15 HR and SB again, but that may change depending on where he hits.  If it’s 5^th, expect 250 with 20-25 HR.  If it’s first or second, 270 with about 15 HR.  Then, beyond the top 5 guys it’s filler with some good but not great players.  Andy Dirks came his closest to a full season so far in the major leagues (131 games) hitting 256 with 9 HR.  Pretty average.  We didn’t get the expected results from a full year (in 2012, he hit 322 with 8 HR in 88 games) but that’s not too unexpected as pitchers got to know him better.  Alex Avila is a former All Star, but that year may be an anomaly.  Since his All Star season of 295/19/82 he’s hit 243/9/48 and last year was 227/11/47.  If he’s good it’s a bonus, if not, well he’s hitting 7^th.  Rookie Nick Castellanos played 11 games last year, so we will get a better look at him this season.  Third base is his to lose.  And Jose Iglesias wielded a stellar glove at short while hitting better than expected in his first year.  In 109 games with Boston and Detroit he hit 303 with 3 HR, 29 RBI and 39 R.  But he was much better with Boston (330) than with Detroit (259).  He’ll stick because of his glove.  Any offense is a bonus.  This lineup may not be as deep as it was a year ago, but it’s still scary to behold.

Defensively this team got a lot better with the loss of Fielder.  He wasn’t necessarily bad at first, but he wasn’t that good.  Most importantly his [resence moved Cabrera to third, which was definitely not a good thing.  Now Cabrera moves to first, where he’s actually pretty good.  Kinsler and Iglesias are stellar up the middle, and Castellanos, while an unknown quantity at third is already an upgrade from Cabrera.  Dirks is fine in left and Avila is fine catching.  Jackson is very good in center and we all know how great Hunter is in right.  Rajai Davis can play left or center and is incredibly fast.  He’s a great 4^th outfielder and Don Kelly can play either corner.  Steve Lombardozzi can back up the short, second and third while Victor Martinez is the emergency catcher and backup first baseman.  This team won’t win many Gold Gloves, but Torii Hunter already has enough for all of them.  And he could win another in right this year.

This pitching staff really has 3 aces.  Justin Verlander lost the mantle of best pitcher in baseball and best pitcher on his team in one year.  But he’s still one of the best.  His 13-12 record doesn’t fairly represent how good he was with a 3.46 ERA and 217 Ks in 218 IP.  He may not be the best anymore, but he’s still top 5.  And he’s a horse who led the team with those 218 IP and 34 starts.  And with his experience, I think he still gets the opening day start, especially with his success at the end of last year and in the playoffs.  The new ace is Max Scherzer, last year’s Cy Young winner.  He led baseball with 21 Wins to go with his 2.90 ERA and 240 Ks in 214 IP.  That’s incredible.  His WHIP was under 1 and his BAA was under 200.  He was easily the best pitcher in the AL last year.  He’s the real ace, but probably the number 2 starter due to Verlander’s experience.  And the other ace is Anibal Sanchez, who had the best ERA in the AL last year with a 2.57 mark.  That came in 29 starts with a 14-8 record and 202 Ks in 182 IP.  That’s right.  The Tigers had 3 pitchers with 200+ Ks.  2 of them had ERAs under 3.  And one of them broke 20 Wins.  This may be the best group of starters in the game, certainly in the AL.  Beyond that murder’s row, Rick Porcello is a solid number 4 man (13-8, 4.32) and Drew Smyly moves out of the bullpen into the starting rotation as the 5 man.  They love his stuff and makeup.  There may be an innings limit on him, but being the 5^th starter will keep him around longer than most other young starters.  In 18 starts and 5 relief appearances in 2012 he was 4-3 with a 3.99 ERA.  More impressively he had 94 Ks in 99 IP.  His WHIP was a tad above average (1.27) but his BAA was slightly below average (247).  Then in 63 games out of the pen he was 6-0 with a 2.37 ERA.  His WHIP and BAA dropped precipitously (1.04/219).  He will get a chance to start exclusively, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up outpitching Porcello, who is a pretty average pitcher.  But with those 2 the only questions, this is shaping up to be a great starting group.  The Tigers biggest win this offseason was signing Joe Nathan.  He has fully returned from Tommy John in 2010.  In 2011 he had 14 Saves and 8 Holds with Minnesota.  That was enough for Texas to take a chance on him closing for them the last 2 years.  He proceeded to lock up 37 Saves with a 2.80 ERA in 2012 and then 43 with a 1.39 ERA last year.  He had a WHIP below 1 and a phenomenal 162 BAA.  He struck out 73 in 64 innings showing he’s back to being a premier closer in this league.  And the Tigers think he can continue doing it for them.  I think they are right, and moving out of Texas helps any pitcher.  If his numbers get any better, which they should, we are talking about a top 5 closer in baseball.  They also added Joba Chamberlain in free agency, which gives them a late inning righty.  He is coming off a tough year (4.93 ERA) but still has potential in him.  And as a reliever who won’t be counted on to close or be the primary set up man, perhaps he can find what scouts loved about him.  Another former Yankee, Phil Coke will be the primary lefty.  He too is coming off a disastrous year with a 5.40 ERA.  If those 2 can become stars again, this team will be unstoppable in the late innings.  But that’s a big if.  The middle relief may be the weakness for this team (and most others) but they have other options with Al Alburquerque and Luke Putkonen.  The bullpen should be fine, with most starters going deep into games and Nathan in the 9^th.  They just have to get to him.

Outlook/Prediction:

Once again Detroit is one of the best teams in the league.  Their long term outlook isn’t as good as their short term, but they still have some talent in the minors and there are young players (Jackson, Castellanos, Iglesias, Smyly) on this team.  And unloading Prince’s contract gave them some space to maneuver.  For now, they are the best team in the weakest division.  That bodes well for them.  I like what they have and would expect another season of 90-95 wins and a first place finish in the AL Central.  The only question for them is, can they finally get a World Series win?