DETROIT TIGERS: 93-69 (First in AL Central)
Projected Lineup/Batting Order:
CF Austin
Jackson
RF Torrii Hunter
1B Miguel Cabrera
DH Victor
Martinez
2B Ian Kinsler
LF Andy Dirks
C Alex Avila
3B Nick
Castellanos
SS Jose Iglesias
Projected Starting Rotation/Key Bullpen Arms:
SP Justin
Verlander
SP Max Scherzer
SP Anibal
Sanchez
SP Rick Porcello
SP Drew Smyly
RP Joe Nathan
RP Phil Coke
RP Joba
Chamberlain
In modern sports today, every team has one goal: to win a championship. This means that in each sport, every team but
one fails. The Detroit Tigers were one
of the teams that failed. Now, they won
their division, won over 90 games, beat the A’s in the ALDS and took the Red
Sox to 6 games in the ALCS, before losing to them and losing the pennant. Most teams would consider that a fairly
successful season. But not the
Tigers. They were the preseason
favorites and expected to run away with the AL.
They have been for about 2 years.
And they have been unable to win the ultimate prize. Two years ago they won the AL pennant, but technically
took a step back last year. So this
offseason they needed to make some changes.
That’s difficult for teams that have as much money invested in winning
now and have been so close to success.
But they did make changes. And
for that I applaud Detroit. They made a
big trade to fill second base with an All Star.
It also provided some salary relief.
And while they lost a power bat in Prince Fielder, they drastically
improved their infield defense moving Miguel Cabrera to first. They have plenty of pop in this lineup and
it’s still to be feared, even without Prince.
The real area the Tigers needed to improve upon was their bullpen. They were stuck financially last year and
couldn’t get a real closer. With the
money they saved sending Prince to Texas, they added Joe Nathan to close and
Joba Chamberlain to the middle relief corps.
This was the final step for this team.
So now they hope they can finally take that last step, and become World
Series champs.
The offense looks stacked once again. They were led by Miguel Cabrera in all three
of the Triple Crown categories. He hit
348 with 44 HR and 137 RBI. While Trout
is probably the best player in the game, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say
Cabrera is the best hitter. And he did
all that in 148 games as he got hurt at the end of the year and played in the
playoffs at less than 100%. He’ll get
his numbers and I think he’s a cinch for 330+ with 40+ HR and 120+ RBI. That’s an incredible floor. He’ll be hitting behind two very good hitters
in Austin Jackson and Torii Hunter. Jackson
hit 272 last year with 12 HR and 99 R.
He does everything you’d expect from a leadoff hitter but steal bases (8
for 12…not good). His OBP is below what
the ideal leadoff man does (337) but it’s not bad. He had an MVP caliber season in 2012, and
maybe splitting the difference will net the Tigers a 300 leadoff man with the
350 OBP they want and perhaps 10+ SB and 110 R.
But he’s great atop the lineup and adds double digit HR. Torii Hunter was second on the team with a
304 AVG last year. The ageless one also
added 17 HR, 84 RBI and 90 R. I think to
expect a repeat is unlikely, but 270+ with double digit HR, 70 RBI and 80 R is
a real possibility, unless age finally drops him off the map. But I don’t think that’s likely. The new cleanup hitter will be Victor
Martinez, as he moves up from the 5 hole to fill Prince’s vacancy. He was third on the team with a 301 AVG to go
with 14 HR and 83 RBI. Not a huge drop
off for Detroit. What Martinez lacks in
power he makes up for in AVG. Then you
have Ian Kinsler to consider. I put him
5th, but he can hit anywhere in the top 5. If for some reason Jackson can’t get on base
or starts hitting too many long-balls to justify a spot outside of the heart of
the order, Kinsler spent the majority of his career hitting leadoff. If Torii Hunter falls off his pace or gets
hurt, he’d be a perfect number 2 hitter.
In fact I really like him there.
If Victor isn’t getting it done in the cleanup spot, I could see moving
Kinsler to third, Cabrera to 4th and letting Martinez settle back in
hitting 5th. I think that’s
the least likely scenario, but Kinsler could roll with it. In an interview with Dan Dickerson, the
Tigers radio voice on my radio show The Foul Pole, Dan believed that Kinsler
would lead off with Austin Jackson hitting second and Torii Hunter moving his
power to the 5th spot in the order.
Though he conceded he wasn’t sure and thought that Jackson and Hunter
could switch spots. Kinsler has always
had crazy seasons, hitting either 300 with 15 HR or 260 with 30 HR. Seriously.
Here are his AVG/HR splits since 2008:
319/18
253/31
286/9
255/32
256/19
277/13
He seemed to be on a power surge with lower AVG recently,
until last year when he finally split the difference. Injury limited him to 136 games last year
where he hit 277/13/72/85/15. He’s a 5-tool
player, just not displaying all 5 tools on a yearly basis. To me, he is one of the most interesting
players in the game. But his OBP is
always high, and he can adjust to what a team needs. I’ll put him down for 270 with 15 HR and SB
again, but that may change depending on where he hits. If it’s 5th, expect 250 with 20-25
HR. If it’s first or second, 270 with
about 15 HR. Then, beyond the top 5 guys
it’s filler with some good but not great players. Andy Dirks came his closest to a full season
so far in the major leagues (131 games) hitting 256 with 9 HR. Pretty average. We didn’t get the expected results from a
full year (in 2012, he hit 322 with 8 HR in 88 games) but that’s not too
unexpected as pitchers got to know him better.
Alex Avila is a former All Star, but that year may be an anomaly. Since his All Star season of 295/19/82 he’s
hit 243/9/48 and last year was 227/11/47.
If he’s good it’s a bonus, if not, well he’s hitting 7th. Rookie Nick Castellanos played 11 games last
year, so we will get a better look at him this season. Third base is his to lose. And Jose Iglesias wielded a stellar glove at
short while hitting better than expected in his first year. In 109 games with Boston and Detroit he hit
303 with 3 HR, 29 RBI and 39 R. But he
was much better with Boston (330) than with Detroit (259). He’ll stick because of his glove. Any offense is a bonus. This lineup may not be as deep as it was a year
ago, but it’s still scary to behold.
Defensively this team got a lot better with the loss of
Fielder. He wasn’t necessarily bad at
first, but he wasn’t that good. Most
importantly his [resence moved Cabrera to third, which was definitely not a
good thing. Now Cabrera moves to first,
where he’s actually pretty good. Kinsler
and Iglesias are stellar up the middle, and Castellanos, while an unknown
quantity at third is already an upgrade from Cabrera. Dirks is fine in left and Avila is fine
catching. Jackson is very good in center
and we all know how great Hunter is in right.
Rajai Davis can play left or center and is incredibly fast. He’s a great 4th outfielder and
Don Kelly can play either corner. Steve
Lombardozzi can back up the short, second and third while Victor Martinez is
the emergency catcher and backup first baseman.
This team won’t win many Gold Gloves, but Torii Hunter already has
enough for all of them. And he could win
another in right this year.
This pitching staff really has 3 aces. Justin Verlander lost the mantle of best
pitcher in baseball and best pitcher on his team in one year. But he’s still one of the best. His 13-12 record doesn’t fairly represent how
good he was with a 3.46 ERA and 217 Ks in 218 IP. He may not be the best anymore, but he’s
still top 5. And he’s a horse who led
the team with those 218 IP and 34 starts.
And with his experience, I think he still gets the opening day start,
especially with his success at the end of last year and in the playoffs. The new ace is Max Scherzer, last year’s Cy
Young winner. He led baseball with 21
Wins to go with his 2.90 ERA and 240 Ks in 214 IP. That’s incredible. His WHIP was under 1 and his BAA was under
200. He was easily the best pitcher in
the AL last year. He’s the real ace, but
probably the number 2 starter due to Verlander’s experience. And the other ace is Anibal Sanchez, who had
the best ERA in the AL last year with a 2.57 mark. That came in 29 starts with a 14-8 record and
202 Ks in 182 IP. That’s right. The Tigers had 3 pitchers with 200+ Ks. 2 of them had ERAs under 3. And one of them broke 20 Wins. This may be the best group of starters in the
game, certainly in the AL. Beyond that
murder’s row, Rick Porcello is a solid number 4 man (13-8, 4.32) and Drew Smyly
moves out of the bullpen into the starting rotation as the 5 man. They love his stuff and makeup. There may be an innings limit on him, but
being the 5th starter will keep him around longer than most other
young starters. In 18 starts and 5
relief appearances in 2012 he was 4-3 with a 3.99 ERA. More impressively he had 94 Ks in 99 IP. His WHIP was a tad above average (1.27) but
his BAA was slightly below average (247).
Then in 63 games out of the pen he was 6-0 with a 2.37 ERA. His WHIP and BAA dropped precipitously
(1.04/219). He will get a chance to
start exclusively, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up outpitching
Porcello, who is a pretty average pitcher.
But with those 2 the only questions, this is shaping up to be a great
starting group. The Tigers biggest win
this offseason was signing Joe Nathan.
He has fully returned from Tommy John in 2010. In 2011 he had 14 Saves and 8 Holds with
Minnesota. That was enough for Texas to
take a chance on him closing for them the last 2 years. He proceeded to lock up 37 Saves with a 2.80
ERA in 2012 and then 43 with a 1.39 ERA last year. He had a WHIP below 1 and a phenomenal 162
BAA. He struck out 73 in 64 innings
showing he’s back to being a premier closer in this league. And the Tigers think he can continue doing it
for them. I think they are right, and
moving out of Texas helps any pitcher.
If his numbers get any better, which they should, we are talking about a
top 5 closer in baseball. They also
added Joba Chamberlain in free agency, which gives them a late inning
righty. He is coming off a tough year
(4.93 ERA) but still has potential in him.
And as a reliever who won’t be counted on to close or be the primary set
up man, perhaps he can find what scouts loved about him. Another former Yankee, Phil Coke will be the
primary lefty. He too is coming off a
disastrous year with a 5.40 ERA. If
those 2 can become stars again, this team will be unstoppable in the late innings. But that’s a big if. The middle relief may be the weakness for
this team (and most others) but they have other options with Al Alburquerque and
Luke Putkonen. The bullpen should be
fine, with most starters going deep into games and Nathan in the 9th. They just have to get to him.
Outlook/Prediction:
Once again Detroit is one of the best teams in the league. Their long term outlook isn’t as good as
their short term, but they still have some talent in the minors and there are
young players (Jackson, Castellanos, Iglesias, Smyly) on this team. And unloading Prince’s contract gave them
some space to maneuver. For now, they
are the best team in the weakest division.
That bodes well for them. I like
what they have and would expect another season of 90-95 wins and a first place
finish in the AL Central. The only
question for them is, can they finally get a World Series win?
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