KANSAS CITY
ROYALS: 86-76 (Third in the AL
Central)
Projected Starting Lineup/Batting Order:
RF Norichika
Aioki
2B Omar Infante
LF Alex Gordon
1B Eric Hosmer
DH Billy Butler
C Salvador
Perez
3B Mike Moustakas
CF Lorenzo Cain
SS Alcides
Escobar
Projected Starting Rotation/Key Bullpen Arms:
SP James Shields
SP Jeremy
Guthrie
SP Jason Vargas
SP Wade Davis
SP Danny Duffy
RP Greg Holland
RP Aaron Crow
RP Luke Hochevar
Last year has to be seen as a successful season for the
Royals. True, they didn’t make the
playoffs, but they were in the hunt at the end of the year and finished above
500. Their 86 Wins was the most for this
team since 1989. And seeing how the
Pirates slowly crept forward until accomplishing both a winning season and
playoff berth in the same year, the Royals think they must be close. I think they are right. But the whole team sagged tremendously last
year with bad seasons from Alex Gordon, Alcides Escobar and Mike
Moustakas. The pitching kept them alive,
but they’ve lost Ervin Santana, one of their best pitchers from a year
ago. If the offense steps up, they have
a chance, but there is no question that their pitching staff is significantly
weaker than it was last year. If this
team is planning on making another step forward and perhaps playing some
October baseball, then this offense needs to make some serious improvement to
support a pitching staff that doesn’t look to be as strong going into this
season.
The biggest offseason move by the Royals was a trade to add
Norichika Aioki from the Brewers for lefty reliever Seth Smith. Aioki can take over at the leadoff spot for
the Royals, since Alex Gordon sagged to a 265 AVG last year. He also had 20 HR, and they want that in the
middle of their lineup. Aioki hit 286
with 20 SB and 80 R. He’s not a sexy
player, but does his job. His SB total
dropped from 30 to 20 in one year, so that’s a bad sign. But the OBP and R are what the Royals care
about and he’s been over 350 and 80 in both categories in both of his MLB
seasons. This is an upgrade, especially
over Jeff Francoeur, who was their starting right fielder last season. The other big offseason move for the Royals
was to sign Omar Infante to play second for them for the next 4 years. It was a $30+ million move for them, which is
a lot for a small market team. But he’s
a good player and will be great for them.
I have him hitting second on this club.
Injury limited him to 118 games for Detroit last year, but he still hit
318 with 10 HR, 51 RBI and 54 R. His SB
total went from 17 to 5, but I think the 17 was an outlier. This guy might take 10 a season, but that’s
all extra. He’s a career 279 hitter with
an OBP around 320. Perfect number 2 man,
with double-digit pop in his bat. Those
2 moves enable Alex Gordon to move to third in the lineup, where maybe his 20
HR will result in more than the 81 RBI he had last year. His 90 R likely come down hitting third, but
if this means 100 RBI, then the Royals win.
He will never be a star, but I think 270 with 20 HR, 100 RBI, 80 R and
10 SB is great, especially for a Gold Glover.
I have first baseman Eric Hosmer hitting cleanup, one of the few Royals
to play well last year. He didn’t hit
with the power that they wanted, but he did hit 302 with 17 HR, 79 RBI and 86
R. And he also tossed in 11 SB, one of
the few first baseman that can help on the base paths. It’s hard to know what to expect from him as
his only other full season in the majors included a 232 AVG. But he’s always been around 15 HR with SB
totals of 11, 16 and 11 again. I think
280 with 15 HR, 80 RBI and R and 10 SB is a good bet. Their star DH Billy Butler will also be a
part of the middle of the lineup. He
also had a down year, by his standards, with only 15 HR and 27 2Bs. I’m betting he returns to 290+ with 25 HR,
100 RBI and 70 R. Then the Royals have Salvador
Perez behind the plate, who I’ve listed as the number 6 man. Last year he played in 138 games, his most in
the majors. In his previous 2 years
before that he had about 100 games and hit 331, then 301. After hitting 292 last year he has a career
average of 301. That’s great. Add to that 13 HR and you have a future star
at a position where offense is sometimes considered a bonus. I love his ceiling, but his floor is likely
another 280+ season with double digit HR.
The bottom third of the order is harder to predict. Mike Moustakas has the most talent out of the
guys left, and I have him hitting 7th. He’s underwhelmed thus far in his short
career, hitting 233 last season and only 242 the season before. His power also fell from 20 HR to 12. That’s not what they expected from him. Now third base has recently become a fairly
shallow position offensively in the league, but that doesn’t mean they don’t
want more from a corner infielder.
They’d like him to work on everything, but if he can’t the good news is
that he’s in the bottom third of their lineup.
With Lorenzo Cain any offense is a bonus. He played the most games in his career as
well last season. And he was pretty
average. 251 with 14 SB. He’s got speed, but he’s in the lineup for
his glove. That led me to putting
Alcides Escobar 9th, as sort of a backup leadoff man for Kansas
City. He was perhaps the biggest down
year culprit on the team. His AVG
tumbled from 293 to 234. He lost 72
points off his OBP while seeing his 35 SB from 2012 turn into only 22 in
2013. That’s not surprising as he was on
base less. That’s why his R total fell
also. However he had about the same
number of HR and RBI, so perhaps he was trying to put the ball into the air too
much. Though people with 5 HR don’t
really have that problem often. Who
knows why he struggled? But it was
bad. And it’s what knocked him from 2nd
in the order to 9th in my projections. If he can find his way back to his 2012
numbers, he may re-take the number 2 spot since his upside is much higher than
Infante’s, and that allows their second baseman to drop to 9th,
where a 300 hitter really is a backup leadoff man. But if not, he’ll stay mired in the bottom of
the order. The Royals actually have a
very deep bench. The outfield features
Jarrod Dyson and Justin Maxwell for depth, and former starting second baseman
Johnny Giovatella is also around. None
of these guys is overly exciting, but all can play defensively, and not kill
you at the plate. However if any of them
log serious playing time, then the Royals are in trouble.
The defense looks solid.
Eric Hosmer is great at first and Infante, a natural shortstop, is even
better at second. Alcides Escobar is one
of the best defensive shortstops in the game.
Alex Gordon won a Gold Glove in left in his career and Cain and Aioki
can go get it. Nobody else is great or
terrible, so things look good for Kansas City in the field.
The questions continue when you look at the Royals’ starting
group. James Shields is the only
non-question. He’s an ace. 13-9 last year with a 3.15 ERA. He had 196 Ks in 228 IP. He’s a horse with 2 CG, a 1.24 ERA and 251
BAA. He’s not like other aces (the WHIP
and BAA are very average) but he eats innings, can strike a guy out and he
knows how to win. And, most importantly,
he doesn’t give up runs. He’s more
ideally a number 2 man, but why fuss over what he’s not when he’s pretty close
to a number 1. It’s the days he’s not
pitching that the Royals have to worry about.
Jeremy Guthrie is likely their number 2 man. That’s not where he belongs in a
rotation. He’s an easy number 4
starter. He went 15-12 with a 4.04 ERA
last year. He’s good at stranding
runners when you consider that his BAA was 285 and he had a 1.39 WHIP. But putting that many guys on base mean some
will score, hence the 4.04 ERA. It is
what it is, but it shouldn’t be the second best pitcher on your team. Jason Vargas is their number 3 man, and he’s another
true number 4 starter. He went 9-8 in 24
starts with the Angels last year. His
4.02 ERA is similar to Guthrie’s.
Neither one is bad, but neither is the guy you want on the mound in a
key playoff game. And since Shields is
only one man, you’ll have to likely turn to one of them at some point to win
some key games. At least Guthrie made it
to 200 IP, Vargas only logged 150 in his fewer starts. But assuming both are healthy earning the title
“innings eaters” are likely the ceilings for these two veterans. They are clearly a step above Wade Davis, who
I’ve inked in as the number 4 man. But a
5.32 ERA is not at all good. His career
ERA is only 4.26, so expecting him to be much better may be unreasonable. He’ll be the number 4 man, and I don’t expect
a lot from him. The real question is
what comes next. They want it to be
Danny Duffy, but he’s still making his way back from Tommy John. He made 5 starts last year and was great
going 2-0 with 22 Ks in 24 IP. But he
walked WAY too many and his career ERA is 4.75.
He’s far from a sure thing, and with injury concerns he may be
diminished. So the backup plan is
Yordano Ventura. He made 3 starts last
year going 0-1 with a 3.52 ERA. Those
are the only 3 starts he’s made in his career.
So he’s another wildcard. This
team needs more depth in their starting rotation. Specifically, they need another ace type
pitcher who can be the other man they count on when Shields isn’t available
(which will be for about 80% of the games btw).
But with all the free agent starters gone, this team is out of options. They will endure, and hope their fantastic
bullpen can stay healthy, give them scoreless middle innings, and win
games. Greg Holland was, for my money,
the best closer in the AL last year. He
struck out 103 in 67 IP with a 1.21 ERA and 47 Saves. He didn’t officially get the job until around
May, so his numbers could have been better.
His WHIP was under 1 and his BAA under 200. He’s one of the best in the business. So if the Royals can get to the 9th
with a lead, then they will be in good shape.
One of the biggest changes that would help the Royals is for Aaron Crow
to return to All Star form. He was fine
last year, but not great with his 3.38 ERA.
His WHIP and BAA ballooned, which didn’t help the Royals. If he can return to his 2.76 days as a set up
man that will go a long way towards keeping the team in the playoff hunt. He still has good stuff as his average of 1 K
per IP shows. Kelvin Hererra is another
regression case as his 2013 ERA rose from 2.35 to 3.86. They need him to improve as well, as one of
these 2 has to set up for Holland. I’d
also expect to see lots of Luke Hochevar.
He was phenomenal in 58 games out of the bullpen ERA pulling his ERA
down to 1.92. He’ll start if he has to,
but his career ERA there is 5.10. So
they want to keep him as a reliever. But
I’d expect him to fill a lot of innings between starters and Greg Holland. The Royals have a lot of good arms in the
pen. If they pitch their best, then this
weak starting rotation may be okay. If
not, then the Royals will likely struggle and miss the playoffs again.
Outlook/Prediction:
The overall outlook for Kansas City is positive as they have
a strong young core and more talent on the way.
But the talent is a ways off as the top of their farm system is in the
majors already. Right now, this major
league team is filled with questions.
Will the Royals suffer another team-wide underperformance? Can Aioki be the leadoff man they want? Will Gordon be better? Will Escobar be better? Can the starters, other than Shields, keep this
team in games? Will the bullpen make it
to Holland? That’s a lot to be unsure
of. I think that being in the AL Central
helps this team as the White Sox and Twins are re-building and the Indians are
due for regression. I think this team
can win 80 games again, but 85 may be a stretch. I’ll put them second in the division, but out
of the playoffs.
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