Projected Division Finish
1.
Washington Nationals
2.
Miami Marlins
3.
New York Mets
4.
Atlanta Braves
5.
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
2014 Finish: 96-66
(First in NL East)
Projected Batting
Order
CF Denard Span
3B Anthony Rendon
LF Jayson Werth
RF Bryce Harper
SS Ian Desmond
1B Ryan Zimmerman
C Wilson Ramos
2B Yunel Escobar
Projected Starting
Rotation/Closer
RHP Max
Scherzer
RHP Stephen
Strasburg
RHP Jordan
Zimmerman
LHP Gio
Gonzalez
RHP Doug
Fister
CLOSER Drew
Storen
The Washington Nationals are considered the team to beat by
many this season. It makes sense when
you see a roster chock full of young talent and a deep pitching staff,
bolstered by another ace in Max Scherzer.
However, they have been favorites before (the last two years) and
haven’t dealt with it well. They were also quickly dismissed from the playoffs
last year, failing to live up to their regular season success. Two years ago they missed the playoffs
entirely, despite being heavily favored.
This season, their focus has to be on carrying their success from the
regular season into the playoffs. But
overlooking the regular season is a sure path to disaster, and perhaps that
contributed to the Nationals slow start.
However, they are back on track now and are currently in first place in
the NL East, right where many thought they’d be.
Offense/Defense:
Last year, the offense for the Nats only hit 250, 9th
out of the 15 NL teams. That’s not good
at all for a team with championship aspirations. They did rank 4th in runs, 3rd
in HR and in the top half of the league in hits. They’d love to improve their ability to put
the ball in play and also improve their ability to steal some bases (last in
2014). If that is going to happen, it
will be with pretty much the same group adjusting their style of play as they
didn’t add any major weapons on the offensive side of the ball this offseason.
The biggest factor in the Nationals improving at the plate
is Bryce Harper. He’s been heavily hyped
since he was 16. That’s tough. What’s also tough is the fact that he’s been
constantly compared to Mike Trout, the best player in baseball. Remember he’s only 22, younger than the
youngest rookie in the MLB this year. He
was a star when he was young and debuted in the majors when he was young. He always had a massive amount of talent, but
it takes more than talent to be a great ballplayer. The fact is, he was always above average, but
with maturity and experience, he is growing into a star. There are a lot of anti-Harper guys out
there. I’m not actually a huge fan. But it has nothing to do with his skills,
which are undeniable. He was just
treated like an MVP far before he earned that respect. He also had no business in his first All Star
game. That made people believe he was
overrated. I think overrated is harsh,
considering his age. But overhyped is
deserved, even if he’s not to blame. All
that being said, he’s got immense talent.
If he can stay healthy and continue to make adjustments (which he has
done since he debuted), he could finally have that monster season. People have been calling for his MVP season
for a while, but I disagreed. I thought
this would be the year. And he’s been
living up to it so far. Last year he
only played in 100 games hitting 273 with 13 HR and 32 RBI. But he was healthy in the playoffs and was a
monster. There is concern that injury
prone players stay injured, but he’s had a lot of fluky injuries. If fully healthy, I think 300/30 HR and 100
RBI is a legitimate possibility. He’s
the hottest hitter in baseball right now and I think he will have a great year.
One of the many hoping Harper has a huge year is center
fielder and leadoff man Denard Span.
Span hit 302 last year and led the NL with 184 hits. He had a 355 OBP, 31 SB and 94 R playing the
role of the perfect leadoff man. I think
this guy is incredibly underrated. He’s
not as fast or as flashy as others, but he does his job supremely well and has
for years with a 287 career AVG and 352 career OBP. He missed the start of the year but has come
back and is playing in top form for the Nats.
I think he’ll likely turn in another 290-300 season with an exemplary
OBP (in the 340+ range), 25+ SB and 90+ R.
Veteran Jayson Werth was also expected to play a large role
for the Nationals. In 147 games last
year, he hit 292 with 16 HR, 82 RBI, 85 R and 9 SB. His defense is slipping and he is no longer a
great stolen base guy. But he picks his
spots to run well (going 9 for 10 last year) and moved to left field with
Harper playing well enough to take over right.
I thought he’d hit 280+ again with 15 HR, 5 SB and 80+ RBI/R. But I was concerned about him staying
healthy. And sure enough, a wrist injury
has knocked him out and will keep him on the DL until August.
Shortstop Ian Desmond is hoping to continue raking in the
middle of this talented lineup. He leads
all MLB shortstops in HR and RBI since 2012 and had another great season last
year with 24 HR and 91 RBI. He also had
24 SB, his 4th straight year of at least 20 steals. The only think he didn’t do was hit for AVG,
though 255 is respectable. His batting
AVG has fluctuated over recent years from 269 to 253 then 292, 280 and last
year’s 255. I think he’s closer to a 250
hitter than a 290 one, but think 265 is a good estimate with another 20 HR and
80 RBI. The 20 SB seem like a lock as
well.
Third baseman Anthony
Rendon was supposed to join Desmond on the left side of the diamond, but has
yet to make an appearance this year.
He’s been coming back from a torn MCL, but in his recovery ended up
straining his oblique, which put him behind schedule. They are just starting his new rehab plan and
want to be more cautious this time.
Rendon, an MVP candidate last year, is a star on both sides of the ball,
hitting 287 in 2014 with 21 HR, 83 RBI, 111 R and 17 SB. Missing this time will hurt his counting
stats, but the hope is he will still be hot when he returns. I think this layoff may affect him some, even
causing a slow start to drop his AVG a bit.
Think 270 with 10 HR, 55 RBI, 8 SB and 60 R in his limited season.
Former third baseman Ryan Zimmerman is moving to first base
with the departure of Adam LaRoche and emergence of Rendon. Zimmerman dealt with injury last year and
only played in 61 games. But he was good
in those games hitting 280 with 5 HR and 38 RBI. He was the Nats first big star and is now one
of their key veterans. I like him this
year and think the move to first could keep him healthy. For a while he was the model of consistency
with 20+ HR 6 of 8 seasons and an average of 275+ every year but one. But he has been hurt a lot and is getting
older. I’ll put him down for 280 (career
AVG 284) with 15 HR and 70 RBI.
Catcher Wilson Ramos has had star potential for a while, but
can’t stay healthy. He has only reached
100 games once, playing in 113 in 2011 (he hit 267 with 15 HR that year). He’s been building his way back from that
point playing in 25 games in 2012, 78 in 2013 and 88 last year. Hopefully the trend continues because
everyone wants to see what he can do in a full season. In his half season in 2014, he hit 267 with
11 HR and 47 RBI. That’s not bad at
all. Extrapolated over a full year (88
games is actually a little more than half) he looks like a 20 HR, 90 RBI
guy. Now those estimates are always
dangerous and most people never seem to be able to live up to them. But it’s a good starting point. If he can stay healthy, I like him to hit 270
with 17 HR and 80 RBI. That’s excellent
production from a catcher and someone hitting so low in your lineup. It also points to how talented this team is.
The Nats added Yunel Escobar to play second in the
offseason. But with the injury to
Rendon, he’s been getting a lot of time at third. Surprisingly, Escobar has been great. Seen to be a supremely talented defender
since his arrival in the bigs, Escobar has never caught up at the plate,
despite his talent. Additionally, a bad
attitude and negative clubhouse presence have hurt him and made people not want
to give him a chance. It’s his own fault
so I don’t feel bad for him. But his
skills are apparent and he is off to a hot start this year. It’s hard to get a feel for what he’ll
do. He had a number of promising seasons
in Atlanta and Toronto, before fading at the plate in his time with Tampa
Bay. He’s never been a good base stealer
and doesn’t hit for a ton of power, despite his approach at the plate. His explosion to start this year was truly
unexpected and superb. He’s a career 277
hitter, but hasn’t reached that number since 2011. He’s never hit more than 14 HR in a season,
only reaching double digits twice. Part
of his success this year is that he’s going the other way with the ball and not
trying to kill it all the time. I have
no idea if this will continue. Also,
he’s hitting second now, but when Rendon returns he may fall in the batting
order. I would have said 255 with 5
HR. Now I’ll up it to 275 with 10
HR. He could also have 60-70 RBI/R, depending
on how long Rendon is out.
The backups on this team include Dan Uggla and Danny
Espinosa on the infield and the supremely talented youngster Michael Taylor in
the outfield. Taylor is this team’s
future center fielder and he is ready to play now. With Werth out, Taylor should get a lot of
playing time, which will give the Naitonals a feel for what he can do on an
everyday basis. If he hits the way many
expect him to, Span could be on a new team next year, despite his excellent
production. Espinosa lost his starting
job due to his limited bat. And Uggla
has been bouncing around since Atlanta cut him, but is playing well off
Washington’s bench. He’s still got
plenty of power and can work a walk.
This is a deep talented team with potential stars in the first 7 spots
of the lineup. There is a reason this
team is picked by many to win it all this year.
They will score a ton of runs assuming average to above average health.
The defense may not be as solid. Zimmerman is a former third baseman at first. We’ve seen others make the switch. But despite the fact that third baseman are
more athletic generally, it takes about a year to get used to first and be a
productive player there. Zimmerman
actually has to learn to be less aggressive and work on taking throws. While I think he can do it, he won’t be a
great first baseman this year, despite having better range than other first
sackers. Escobar would have been a great
second baseman. He’s still a good
shortstop. And now he is doing a nice
job at third. No matter where he ends up
on the diamond, he will be good, with a chance to be great at second, which is
what he was originally signed to do. Ian
Desmond makes a ton of errors at short.
He’s not at all good defensively.
And Rendon is excellent, but is out for now. With Escobar covering third, Espinosa is
playing some second (fine) and Uggla is getting time as well (bad…but not as
bad as people make him out to be). Span
is an excellent center fielder and Harper was great in left. Harper is moving to right and has the skills
to be average to good there. Werth was
terrible in right. Moving to left was
supposed to improve the defense and keep him healthy, but that didn’t work
out. So now Michael Taylor will play
left, which he can easily do as he’s a natural center fielder. Losing Werth hurts, but it makes the outfield
defense look great. Wilson Ramos is fine
behind the plate and has a good arm to throw out runners. Jose Lobaton is even better defensively as
his backup. This isn’t the best defense
in the word, but the Nats have options and have spread their defensive
liabilities out. While Desmond is at a
premier spot, two great defenders flank him.
They will make errors, but the defense shouldn’t kill them, especially
with this team’s offensive potential.
Pitching:
The Nationals excelled on the mound last year. It was probably the biggest key to their
success, considering the injury issues on their offense. This starting staff held onto all of their
major pieces and added the biggest free agent pitcher on the market: Max Scherzer.
They look ridiculously good. The
bullpen has been the weak point of this team for the last few years, but they
let Rafael Soriano go and signed former Blue Jays closer Casey Janssen. Janssen will setup and the Nats will turn to
former closer Drew Storen to take over the 9th. Losing Tyler Clippard hurts, but the Nats
hope their phenomenal starters will keep the bullpen covered. Even with their limited bullpen last year,
the Nats had the best ERA, WHIP and fewest walks in the league. With the addition of Scherzer this great
pitching staff looks to be even better.
It’s hard to pinpoint an ace on this club. Three of these pitchers have the stuff and
makeup to be aces. But I’ll start with
the new guy, Max Scherzer. A year after
winning the Cy Young Award, Scherzer picked right back up with his dominance
going 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA. He’s been a
strikeout pitcher his whole career, but started avoiding walks and limiting
hits at an incredible rate in 2012. He’s
been great ever since then. He threw 220
IP with a 1.18 WHIP and 238 BAA. Those
numbers weren’t nearly as strong as his Cy Young year in 2013, but were still
above average. And with his strikeout
ability (career high 252 last year) he gets out of a lot of trouble on his
own. Moving to the NL will only improve
his numbers, and he stays on a great team that help him get a lot of wins. I’m thinking 220 IP, 250 Ks, an ERA under
3.25 and 15-20 Wins. This guy could win
his second Cy Young on this team facing a division filled with weak offenses.
Jordan Zimmerman was arguably the ace of this staff last
year, despite being overshadowed by the highly touted Stephen Strasburg. He went 14-5 last year with a 2.66 ERA. He’s not the strikeout pitcher that Scherzer
or Strasburg are (which is likely why he’s less heralded than the others), but
he did have a career high 182 last year and his K total has climbed the last 4
years. He had fewer wins last year than
in 2013, but his ERA and WHIP improved while his BAA actually climbed a
bit. I think he will have another
stellar year, especially with the Braves, Mets and Phillies’ offenses looking
like they will struggle. Put him down
for 15+ Wins, an ERA around 3 and 175+ Ks, having another great year. 200 Ks and a 2.50 ERA are possibilities if
all breaks right, as are 20 Wins.
The third member of this three-headed ace triumvirate is
Stephen Strasburg, arguably the most heralded player of the trio. Since being picked first overall by the
Nationals, he has been under constant scrutiny.
He made his debut in 2010, had Tommy John missing most of 2011 and part
of 2012 and was back to full strength in 2013.
He’s been great, but the hype on him has been so huge that people feel
like he hasn’t lived up to it. Last year
he went 14-11 with a 3.14 ERA. That’s
very good. He threw 215 IP and had 242
Ks, also great. He gives up a few more
hits than the greats, but less than the average pitcher and with his stuff he
gets out of most of his close spots. But
he just hasn’t taken that step to be truly great. I initially put him down for 12+ Wins, an ERA
under 3.50 and over 200 IP and 230 Ks.
But he got off to a terrible start and has now gone to the DL. So those stat totals will definitely be off,
the question is by how much.
Lefty Gio Gonzalez is still around in the back end of the
rotation. He hasn’t been as good as he
was in 2012, but he’s still a very solid pitcher and great as a number 4
man. Last season he only appeared in 27
games going 10-10 with a 3.57 ERA, his highest since 2009. It was also the first time since 2012 that he
failed to reach 190 innings. But his
3.57 ERA was still very competitive and he had more Ks than IP. He still has issues with walks, but he’s
gotten a little better. Perhaps he’ll
never return to his level of greatness in Oakland or his first year in
Washington. But he’s still a great
pitcher with phenomenal strikeout stuff.
Think double-digit wins and, if healthy, 200 IP and Ks. Add in an ERA under 4 and may have the best 4th
starter in baseball.
Doug Fister is their fifth starter, though he’ll probably
pitch more than other 5th starters.
He provides depth and having him pitch more to give others a rest is a
luxury for this year. The 6’8 lefty went
16-6 last year with a sparkling 2.41 ERA.
He only made 25 starts, which limited him to 164 IP. He’s a groundball machine with a penchant for
avoiding walks. As a guy who pitches to
contact, he gives up more hits than others, but gets out of his jams because he
has a heavy sinker and guys can’t help but hit it on the ground. Put a good defense behind him, and he should
be in good shape. Washington doesn’t
have the best defense, but it’s good enough.
I’m thinking 12 Wins with an ERA around 3.25. However, those numbers may take a hit with
his DL stint.
That’s the starting staff.
It’s probably the best and deepest in the majors. Even losing one or two guys to injury isn’t a
big deal for Washington because all 5 starters are above average and 3 are very
good. With their starting talent and
depth, it’s easy to see why they are heavy favorites to win it all.
The bullpen isn’t as strong.
Rafael Soriano struggled last year and was let go after his contract ran
out. To this point, he has not found
another team. Drew Storen took over the
closer’s role later in the year and played well going 11 for 14 in Save
Opportunities and earning 20 Holds with a 1.12 ERA in 65 games. Storen was great as a setup man and had
success closing in the past. I’m
thinking he can have around 40 Saves this year with a sub 2 ERA. Both his WHIP and BAA have been stellar in
his career and I think that will continue.
Casey Jansenn is set to be the primary set up man. Matt Thornton had the job while he was
out. Both are great and Janssen has
closing experience. Tanner Roark is a
former starter who was moved to the pen after Scherzer’s signing. But with the injuries to Strasburg and
Fister, Roark is starting again. So that
leaves Storen, Jansenn and Thornton as the sure things in the pen. After them, there are questions. If the Nats get the starting pitching and
offense they expect, then they can cover for the bullpen deficiencies. With limited exposure, this team should be
fine. But if the starters struggle or
get hurt, then this bullpen may have to appear more often in games and that
could be the only Achilles heel for this team.
This pitching staff should be great. The starters are the best in baseball and
they have some good back of the bullpen arms.
They also have depth. While the
bullpen isn’t great, that can be said of many teams. I love the outlook for the Nationals pitching
this year and think they will be very successful.
Prediction:
Many people think this is the best team in baseball. I’m inclined to agree. They will hit better than most and possibly
pitch better than anyone. They also play
in a division with two re-building teams and two other teams on the way up, but
neither of which is truly great. I think
the Nats are due to have a huge year, despite their slow start. For me, this is the best team in baseball.
I picked them to win the division with 98 wins before the
season began. I’m sticking with that because
I think that is a real possibility, as is a deep postseason run.
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