Projected Division Finish
1.
Washington Nationals
2.
Miami Marlins
3.
New York Mets
4.
Atlanta Braves
5.
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
2014 Finish: 79-83
(Tied for Second in NL East)
Projected Batting
Order My
Batting Order
RF Curtis
Granderson CF Juan Lagares
3B David Wright 2B Daniel Murphy
1B Lucas Duda 3B David Wright
LF Michael
Cuddyer 1B Lucas Duda
2B Daniel Murphy LF Michael Cuddyer
C Travis
d’Arnaud RF Curtis Granderson
CF Juan Lagares C Travis d’Arnaud
SS Wilmer Flores SS Wilmer Flores
Projected Starting
Rotation/Closer
RHP Matt
Harvey
RHP Jacob
deGrom
RHP Bartolo
Colon
LHP Jonathon
Niese
RHP Dillon
Gee
CLOSER Jeurys
Familia
The Mets are in a similar position to the Marlins. Both teams are up and coming. Both teams have
good long-term outlooks. They also have
similar expectations. By that I mean,
that if you are a fan of one of these teams you tend to think they are ready to
compete now and the re-build fell behind schedule. If you aren’t a fan of one of these teams,
you realize that they seem to be right on track in terms of being a contender
and should be ready soon, perhaps even a wildcard threat this year. But you also know that they are not one of
the top teams in the league at this point.
The Mets are in a tough spot.
They have witnessed the rest of their division deal with some success
(Atlanta’s long run of division championships, Philly’s shorter but more recent
run and Washington’s current emergence as a division power). Even the Marlins at least have a few World
Series titles in the recent past (1997, 2003), while the Mets haven’t won one
since 1986. The Mets also haven’t been
to the playoffs since 2006 and haven’t had a winning season since 2008. Add to that the issues the Wilpons had with
Bernie Madoff and the Mets becoming a mid market salary club with big market
expectations and it’s clear that this franchise is ready for some good
news. So while it is likely too early
for Mets fans to think they are ready to be a serious contender, you can
understand why they want to believe they are.
The good news is they got off to a good start and look to have a bright
future ahead of them.
Offense/Defense:
The Mets offense struggled last year. They ranked near the bottom half of the
league in every single major offensive category, looking especially thin in the
Hits category, with the third fewest.
What’s more troubling, is that this offense doesn’t look to be much
better this year. They added Michael
Cuddyer to play left field, and he should help some. But he’s 34 years old and moving to a park
that stifles offense. Outside of that,
the Mets are pretty much going with the same crew banking on renewed health
from David Wright and continued growth from the rest of the team. That’s not the surest bet for success.
David Wright continues to be the focal point for this
offense. But at 32, the former All Star
is constantly injured and hasn’t played at an All Star level since 2012. He played well in 2013, but only in 112 games
as injury shortened that season. In
fact, Wright has missed 144 games due to injury since 2011, which almost
amounts to a full season. He’s only
played in 8 games this year after heading to the DL with a back injury. He’s been diagnosed with spinal stenosis,
which means no one knows when he’ll get better and how long he’ll be out. Knowing his injury history, I didn’t expect
much from him. Last year he hit only 269
with 8 HR and 43 RBI. In past seasons
when he hasn’t been a power threat, he’s tried to steal more bases to make up
for it. But after going 8 for 13 on the
bases last year, I suspect that won’t be an option for him anymore. I had him at 270 with 10 HR, 55 RBI and 5 SB
in 115 games. Even those low totals look
like a stretch now.
With Wright’s injury, a lot more will be needed from the
newest acquisition, Michael Cuddyer.
From the beginning, the Mets planned on having Cuddyer be the cleanup
man. I think he’s better suited to hit 5th
or 2nd. I have him hitting 5th
in my lineup, but with the injuries the Mets have dealt with, they have used a
number of different lineups and Cuddyer has responded admirably filling in all
over. The former batting champ expected
to see his numbers drop moving from Coors Field (one of the best offensive
parks in baseball) to Citi Field (one of the worst, even with the fences
brought in). I was thinking he’d hit 280
with around 12-15 HR in 120 games. That
seems to be a good estimation based on what he’s done so far this year as he is
one of the few Mets acquitting himself well at the plate.
First baseman Lucas Duda had a great season last year
ranking third in the NL with 30 HR. He
also chipped in 92 RBI and a 349 OBP.
His 253 AVG is perfectly acceptable as a slugger. He’s put the whole Duda vs. Ike Davis debate
in the past and looks to be one of the few bright spots on the offense this
year. I don’t think he’s a number three hitter, as the Mets decided he was to
start the season. Terry Collins fiddled
with the lineup a lot since then and Duda is back hitting 4th or 5th,
both good spots for him on this team. If
he can hit 30 HR in last year’s Citi Field, there is a thought he could hit
more this year. But now that he’s a more
established threat, pitchers may deal with him more carefully. I’ll put him down for 250 with 30 HR and 90
RBI again.
After the heart of the order, the rest of the offense is up
in the air. Curtis Granderson started
the year leading off. He makes a better
2, 5 or 6 hitter in my opinion. And with
Daniel Murphy around, I love him in the 6th spot. But, like most the other Mets, he’s moved up
and down the batting order a lot to try to offset the injures. He’s no longer a 40 home run hitter at his
age and playing in any park that isn’t the new Yankee stadium. Last year he struggled hitting 227 with only
20 HR and 66 RBI. I think he’s more of a
25-30 HR guy, though his AVG should come up.
Granderson’s issue is that he’s so streaky, which makes him a poor
leadoff candidate. He can work a walk,
but he’s not an elite on base guy. I’ll
put him down to hit in the middle of the order and perhaps go 250 (career 256),
28/80. That’s not bad at all. He could also chip in 10 SB.
I mentioned Daniel Murphy as an ideal number 2 hitter. And I stand by it. One of the most underrated second baseman in
the game, Murphy is third among all second baseman in hits since 2012. He had another strong season last year
hitting 283 with 9 HR, 57 RBI, 79 R and 13 SB.
He’s not an elite hitter and does nothing great. For that reason, a lot of New Yorkers aren’t
a big fan of his. But he gets tons of
hits, has an above average OBP (career 333 to go with a 289 career AVG) and can
be a double digit HR/SB guy. I liked him
for 290 with 11 HR, 14 SB, 60 RBI and 75 R.
But an injury has recently sent him to the DL. The good news is he shouldn’t be there long
and if he keeps playing like he has been, all those totals are within reach
with a possibility for more.
With the established players set, the Mets are hoping a
young trio of hitters can continue to grow at the plate and help out
offensively. Juan Lagares is known more
for his glove in center field, but got some chances to leadoff last year. He acquitted himself fairly well hitting 281
with 13 SB and a 321 OBP in 116 games.
There was some hesitation to hand the leadoff duties to him to start
this year, but I think he is the best option in that spot. He will definitely have some growing pains with
only 237 career games under his belt to start this year. But if you are committed to him, you may as
well see if he can start learning now and perhaps be a solid to good leadoff
man in the near future. I see him
struggling, but learning. Think 260 with
5 HR, 20 SB and 65 R. He’s on pace to
reach those totals now. While they
aren’t great, they are acceptable for a hitter with his experience.
Travis d’Arnaud struggled in the first half of last season,
before coming on strong after a demotion to Triple A. He hit 180 before being sent down and then
272 once he came back. He also slugged
13 HRs to lead all NL rookies last season.
He has a bright future ahead of him, though he’s not much more than an
average hitter at this point. I figured
270 would be another good estimate for him with perhaps 12-15 HR. But he is on pace to hit far better than that
in the AVG department, though perhaps a little behind in the power
department. Just like Lagares, d’Arnaud
is a guy who is still learning the major leagues and needs time to develop and
be better for the future.
The last piece of this offense is Wilmer Flores. Flores has played second and third in the
minors, but was asked to take over shortstop this year. His bat has gotten him to the majors. But it’s not an elite bat by any means. Add to that the fact that he is playing out
of position in one of the toughest positions in baseball, and I see this
experiment failing. There is no question
he can hit. We know that, even with his
limited experience at the major league level.
But I think too much is being asked of him. I would bury him in the 8th spot
and hope this playing out of position doesn’t hurt his development. He can run into double-digit homers, but if
he pushes his AVG will plummet. I figured
him to struggle to the tune of 230 with 12 HR and 40 RBI. He’s actually played much better than I
thought he would so far this year and think he should surpass all those totals,
even if he continues to struggle at short.
That’s the starting lineup.
On the bench, the Mets have John Mayberry Jr., who excels at hitting
lefties and can play either outfield corner.
Anthony Recker was the original backup catcher, but has been displaced
by prospect Kevin Plawecki. The only
other established major leaguer on the bench is Ruben Tejada, who has struggled
in his chances to be a major league shortstop to this point. With Wright hurt, he’ll get more chances to
play, but I don’t expect much from him.
This bench is not deep or experienced.
Even healthy, this lineup was going to struggle to score runs. Without their top guys, things look
grim. Luckily they got off to an
incredibly hot start. But unless they
have another one in them, I see them sinking in the standings quickly.
The defense on this club isn’t great. Behind the plate, d’Arnaud does a good job
framing pitches but needs to work on blocking balls in the dirt and throwing
out runners. He’s young and still
learning so he likely will be better, but this year won’t be the year he wins a
gold glove. The backups aren’t much
better defensively and neither has a proven bat. Duda isn’t terrible at first, but he’s below
average. Daniel Murphy has worked hard
to become a good second baseman. He’s
gotten a lot better. But he’s still
below average. Flores is not a shortstop
and lacks the skills to play the position.
He is currently 3rd in the league with 10 Errors and has
shown abysmal range. Michael Cuddyer is
fine in left, but lacks range. David
Wright is no longer a Gold Glover, and many metrics had him as a suspect Gold
Glover in his youth. That being said,
he’s an average to above average defensive third baseman at this point, though
he’s always injured so he’s played very little.
Granderson is fine in right, but lacks an arm. Lagares is the only plus defender on the
whole team and luckily is probably the best defensive center fielder in the
league. Mayberry Jr. is an upgrade in
left and a downgrade in right. No one else
on the bench is a proven commodity. So
while this offense struggles, they can’t save it with great defense, because
they will likely be a subpar defensive team.
Pitching:
The Mets have a fantastic group of young arms. And they hope that they will be the group
that leads them back into relevancy and beyond in the near future. However last year their pitching took a hit
as Matt Harvey was recovering from Tommy John surgery. This year, before the season even began, Zach
Wheeler went down with the same injury.
So while they get Harvey back, they lose Wheeler. But there is depth and experience on this
pitching staff, even without Wheeler, so there is no reason to believe the Mets
can’t continue to pitch near the 3.49 mark they reached last year, good enough
for 6th in the league.
However it’s important to remember that while the Mets pitching staff
looks good, it is not yet elite. While
the Mets were third in the league in Ks, they were third to last in BBs
allowed. These pitchers are talented,
but most are young and still learning.
They are hoping Matt Harvey can re-capture his ace
status. While many in NY are sure he
can, the fact is, it isn’t a foregone conclusion. We all remember how great he was in 2013,
going 9-5 with a 2.27 ERA in 26 starts.
He struck out 191 in 178 IP and held hitters to a 209 BAA while sporting
a 0.93 WHIP. Those are incredible
totals. But he missed all of last year
trying to rehab from his Tommy John, so we can’t just assume he will be as
good. In fact, it’s usually the second
year back from Tommy John that a pitcher regains his top form. Now he’s still got the talent and stuff to be
very good, even if he’s not at his best.
But I think this will be a bridge year to a much stronger season in
2016. My preseason predictions for him
were 12-15 Wins, a 3.30 ERA and 200 Ks in 180 IP. I also thought that at the end of the year,
if the Mets were out of it, he might get some additional time off to perhaps
only make 30 starts. He’s on track to
reach those totals this year and could do better.
Last year’s Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom is the de facto
number 2 starter now. Even with his
inexperience, the Mets love sending him out there. He’s got incredible strikeout stuff as
evidenced by his 144 Ks last year in 140 IP.
He also pitched to a 2.69 ERA while going 9-6 in 22 starts. That being said, he has only 22 starts under
his belt. You would expect hitters to
get a book on him, and then force him to make adjustments. That’s something all young players struggle
with. I expect him to struggle a bit
this year, but only in comparison to his great season in 2014. I think he too can win 12-15 games with an
ERA under 3.50 and perhaps 200 Ks in 180+ IP.
He’s got a phenomenal 4-pitch arsenal and great swing and miss stuff to keep
him successful. Based on his strong
numbers right now, my predictions are looking like they are too low.
Veteran lefty Jon Niese is back for another season. Not at all a flashy player, Niese is often
overlooked, even by the Mets faithful.
But he’s a good, underrated pitcher who can eat innings and win
games. He went 9-11 last year with a
3.40 ERA in 30 starts and 187 IP. He’s
not a strikeout guy and has fairly pedestrian secondary numbers (1.27 WHIP, 268
BAA). But even though he puts runners
on, he limits damage and keeps his team in games. He’s never going to win a Cy Young, but he’s
a quality mid-rotation piece. I’m
thinking another 180 IP from him and double-digit wins with an ERA around 3.80.
Bartolo Colon continues to defy all pitching logic. He’s a 42 year old, overweight starter with a
90 MPH fastball that he throws all the time.
He locates it well and it has some movement, but I think calling it a
sinker is disingenuous. His arm is
hanging onto his shoulder by a stem cell and his at bats are humorous. There is no reason he should be successful as
a pitcher. And yet at the time of this
writing, he is tied for the league lead in Wins. But despite that, he is not an ace caliber
pitcher. We have learned that Wins are
somewhat random and the Colon’s secondary numbers greatly support that
finding. But he’s still a quality
pitcher and can obviously help his team win games. Last year, he went 15-13 with a 4.09
ERA. He logged 202 IP and pitched to a
1.23 WHIP. All those numbers are fairly
average except for the Win and IP totals.
If you stay healthy and throw a lot of innings, even an average pitcher
can win ballgames. And that’s the secret
to Colon’s success. He also avoids walks
nicely and doesn’t beat himself. He’ll
give up hits and runs, but not a ton.
And he can stay in games long enough to win. I like him for another 200 IP this year with
perhaps 12 Wins and an ERA around 4.25.
With Zach Wheeler gone, the Mets had to move everyone up in
the rotation. The Mets planned to start the season with veteran Dillon Gee as
the 5th starter. Gee has been
a fairly average pitcher over his 4+ seasons in the bigs. He has an ERA around 4 and produces a record
close to 500. His best season was in
2013, when he went 12-11 with a 3.62 ERA in 199 IP. However, he was never more than a spot holder
for this team. I figured he’d hold the 5th
spot for half the year and win 6-8 games (losing another 6-8) with an ERA
around 4. However, I suspected that the
Mets would eventually move him to the bullpen in favor of Noah Syndergaard. That move already happened and now Gee is the
long man and occasional spot starter.
The move happened earlier than many others and I thought it
would. It happened because Syndergaard
was so good in Triple A that the Mets thought he could boost the team at the
major league level. The Mets have dealt
with a lot of injuries, but were actually pretty healthy on the mound. So bringing Syndergaard up meant a demotion
for Gee, who wasn’t happy about it. But
all are doing their jobs and this is a “light” 6 man rotation. That means that while there are 6 starters,
the 6th starter is not guaranteed a chance to start when his turn
comes up. However, that will make it
easier for the Mets to limit Matt Harvey’s innings and deal with any injuries
that do arise. I thought Syndergaard
would only pitch 2-2 ½ months and maybe get 5 Wins with an ERA around
3.50. But now that he’s with the big
club in June, those numbers could be a lot better.
That’s the starting rotation. And it’s pretty good. While it’s not the best, it is deep and has
youth and proven commodities. It is
definitely a position of strength for the Mets.
And that’s good news for New York, because their bullpen is a completely
different story.
It started with Bobby Parnell being out. He’s actually re-joined the team, but was
gone for over a year and just recently got his first Save. Because of that, Jenrry Mejia was tabbed to
be the new closer, but ended up being suspended due to a positive drug test for
PEDs. Jeurys Familia was then given the
job and has done well thus far. But now the Mets are dealing with injuries to
Buddy Carlyle, Jerry Blevins, Josh Edgin, Erik Goeddel and Rafael Montero. So the bullpen is chock full of unproven
commodities as their initial wave of arms was devastated by injuries. There are still talented arms in the bullpen,
but the Mets can’t continue to lose relief arms if they hope to stay in the
division race.
This pitching staff is pretty good. The starters are very good and the closer is
solid. But the bridge between them is
weak and untested. That will put more
pressure on the starters to perform, but luckily the Mets are very deep in
their starting rotation and can hopefully deal with the pressure and any
injuries down the stretch. This team
will be competitive day in and day out.
But with this offense, that doesn’t necessarily mean wins.
Prediction:
The Mets are expecting a lot from themselves this year. The Mets fan base is expecting even
more. But other baseball people have
tempered their expectations for this team.
The Mets have had a bright future for a while. That is still the case. But we may not be quite there yet.
They have a very good starting staff. Very good, not great. It’s important to point that out because on
paper, the Nationals look better and both the Braves and Marlins look to be
very similarly talented, if perhaps a step behind. Even if they had the best rotation in the
division, they likely have only the third best offense. That could be enough, but it’s not a sure
thing. And with this limited offense,
all it takes is an off night for a starter for them to be dead in the
water. And the Nationals have 5 arms
capable of neutralizing this offense, the Braves have 3, the Marlins have 1 or
2 and the Phillies have 1.
The Mets are not a sure bet this year and for that reason I
had them finishing third in the division with 82 Wins. I think this could be the year they get over
500, but don’t see them being a serious threat for a wildcard spot.
Thus far, they have played better than I expected. But I still don’t think they will make the
playoffs, though they may finish second with around 85 Wins.
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