Houston Astros 2013 Team Breakdown

Well it’s that time.  Football is done.  Pitchers and catchers have reported.  Everyone is heading out to purchase their fantasy baseball magazines.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to start breaking down teams and see what they are looking like for this year.  I waited for most of the free agents to sign.  Others may sign after I talk about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team breakdown as necessary.  Last year I started with the NL East.  This year I’ll start with the AL West.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  I’ll finish the AL West today with the Houston Astros, who actually weren’t last in this division last year.  They were last in the NL Central last year.  However they would have been last had they played in this division, and, frankly, they would have finished last in every other division too.

Projected 2013 Roster

C-              Jason Castro

1B-            Carlos Pena

2B-            Jose Altuve

SS-            Jimmy Paredes

3B-            Matt Dominguez

LF-            Fernando Martinez

CF-            Justin Maxwell

RF-            J.D. Martinez

DH-           Brett Wallace

Starting Rotation:            

Bud Norris, Lucas Harrell, Jordan Lyles, Phillip Humber, Alex White

Bullpen:  

Jose Veras (closer), Wesley Wright Fernando Rodriguez, Rhiner Cruz, Xavier Cedeno, Sam Demel, Hector Ambriz

Projected Batting Order

2B-            Jose Altuve

SS-            Jimmy Paredes

DH-           Brett Wallace

1B-            Carlos Pena

RF-            J.D. Martinez

CF-            Justin Maxwell

3B-            Matt Dominguez

LF-            Fernando Martinez

C-              Jason Castro

Spring Training is coming.  One of the most exciting times in baseball.  Every team has hope.  Every team could play a role in the playoffs.  Every team has an excited fan base.  Well, every team but the Houston Astros.  They were bad last year.  They were bad the year before.  They will be bad this year.  They will likely be bad next year.  Something has to be said for their consistency.  Well, not really.  That’s just something people say.  The Astros have to make some serious changes.  And they are the last people that need to be made aware of that fact. 

After another season with the worst record in baseball, the Astros were moved from the NL Central to the AL West.  How cruel the world is.  Now instead of finishing in the basement of a mediocre division, the Astros will finish in the sub-basement of a much better division.  The good news is, the Astros really only have 2 issues, they can’t hit and they can’t pitch.  If they can solve those issues, they may compete in this decade.

The leading hitter on this club was Jose Altuve, who hit 290.  Altuve also led the team in ABs and games, as the rest of his team spent time on another club, or being shuttled back and forth from the minors.  And Altuve was their lone All Star representative leading the Astros in R and SB for good measure.  He’s good.  The rest of it?  Bad bad bad.  Justin Maxwell led the team with 18 HR.  He paired that with a paltry 229 AVG and 53 RBI.  J.D. Martinez led the team with 55 RBI.  That came with 11 HR and a 241 AVG.  He was one of their better hitters.  But that’s about it.  There’s not a ton of speed, very limited power and a lot of low averages.  Altuve should be decent, but he could struggle in his second full year.  He’s young and, frankly, one of the few guys pitchers have to be wary of on this team.  He’ll score some R, but it’ll be as limited as his team.  The Astros will lose a lot of games.  And they won’t score a lot of R doing it.

Well at least they can pitch.  Or….not so much.  Only one pitcher started 30+ games for this team.  It was Lucas Harrell, and he had a team high 11 Wins (to go with 11 Losses) and also a team best 3.76 ERA.  Those are fine numbers, but not for an ace.  Especially when he only had 1 CG and SHO, 192 IP and a mere 140 Ks.  He stranded runners, but put them on with a 1.36 WHIP (below average….because it’s above average….for what the average pitcher does….kind of like saying someone is subpar for not being below par….that’s a golf analogy) and hitters hit 253 against him.  That’s better than 1 out of every 4 hitters faced getting a hit, assuming they don’t draw a walk.  Harrell isn’t the problem, so I feel bad pointing out all his flaws.  The point is, this guy is not an ace, but for the Astros, is an ace (I wanted to make this paragraph as confusing as possible).  Who else is in this rotation?  Well, we’ve got their actual (on paper) ace, Bud Norris.  Norris led the team with 165 Ks (that’s not a lot for a team leader….are you seeing a trend?) while going 7-13 with a 4.65 ERA.  None of that is even average.  Next?  Jordan Lyles started 25 games for Houston, third most on this team behind the aforementioned starters.  He went 5-12 with a 5.09 ERA.  Ouch.  Staying with that trend, Alex White started 20 painful games for Colorado, going 2-9 with a 5.51 ERA.  And last, we have Mr. Perfect, Phillip Humber.  I don’t mean to disparage (that may not be believable at this point), but only to remind everyone that this is the Phillip Humber of the perfect game for the White Sox last year.  How was the rest of his season?  Well including the perfect game, he was 5-5 with a 6.44 ERA in 26 starts.  Now I know I didn’t dig as deep in these pitching stats, but with these numbers the superficial stats are sufficient.  These guys were bad.  How’s the bullpen?  Well it’s missing Saves leader Brett Meyers, who wasn’t that good of a closer anyway.  This bullpen is also without number two and three on the team Saves list.  The only player with a Save from last year that is on this team this year is Wesley Wright who was 1 for 2 in Save attempts but had a respectable 19 Holds to go with a 3.27 ERA and 226 BAA.  He’ll set up again.  The new closer will likely be Jose Veras, who has 5 career Saves and a sub-4 ERA for the last 3 years.  That may not seem like much to us, but it’s a big deal in Houston.  That’s the group of pitchers that Houston plans to trot out against Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Yoenis Cespedes, Adrian Beltre, Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, Michael Morse and the rest of the AL West sluggers.  This is also the evidence that will be used by a group of lawyers when discussing a mercy rule in the baseball supreme court (I jest).

2013 Prediction

Destruction and despair.  Just kidding.  But seriously.  The Astros are in a lot of trouble.  I don’t mean to pick on the Astros, but if you can’t laugh at them then what are you going to laugh at in this game (dang it, I keep doing it!)?  Seriously, while a lot of this hyperbole is designed to make my readers laugh (both of you) it’s also to underline the fact that the Astros don’t have the talent to compete in their new division.  This same group couldn’t do better than last in their old division, which is not nearly as talented as their new home.  The Astros can’t control where, or who they play.  That is controlled by the commissioner, who probably moved the wrong team to the AL.

(Seriously, it should have been the Brewers.  The club began as an American league team when they joined the major leagues as an expansion club in 1969.  They had a place in the AL and rivals and history there, albeit a relatively short one.  But Bud Selig, who bought the Brewers in 1969 and owned them until he became the Commissioner, longs to think of this club as his long lost Milwaukee Braves, who were members of the National League.  So when the chance came, he moved the Brewers in to the Senior Circuit to take their place.  He did this despite the fact that the Braves are still alive and kicking [frankly with more success and recognition than the current Milwaukee team] in Atlanta, where they won a record number of consecutive divisional titles and a World Series.  In contrast, the Brewers have only 4 playoff appearances, with one pennant to their name.  In 1982.  As members of the AL.  By comparison, the Astros have spent their entire history in the NL.  They were established in 1962, 7 years BEFORE the Brewers joined the league [the other league to be precise].  But since 1997, the Brewers and Astros clogged the NL Central, which was the only division with 6 teams.  It also lead to the NL having one more team than the AL for a long time, though the ostensible reason the Brewers moved was to keep the leagues even.  However once the numbers became 16 and 14, they realized they needed to make a change.  So they moved a team.  Selig chose the Astros in order to keep his hometown Brewers in the NL, to replace the Braves.  It makes little sense.  This is the kind of wisdom that lets an All Star game end in a tie, and then the following year decides to award home field based of the winner of the same All Star game.  Does it matter or not?  Just depends on the year.  Now it does matter, much more than it should for an exhibition, to help erase the distaste of that tie.  The thought in this being that this shouldn’t have happened, so I will do the wrong thing to make it better.  Kind of like having an uneven number of teams in the AL and NL, and fixing it by moving an established NL member to the AL, despite the fact that there was a former AL member that started out in the AL sitting in the same division.  Okay, rant over).

For those of you still with me, the Astros have a lot of issues on both sides of the ball.  They are young, unproven and now have to face tougher competition.  This breakdown outlines what to expect from each team, and the 2013 Astros are likely going to finish in last in the AL West.  I also fully expect them to have the worst record in baseball.  But there is a light at the end of this tunnel.  The Astros have a new owner and a new GM who are both committed to re-building.  It’s pretty much their only option, but at least they’ve accepted it.  They have no money on the books for the 2015 season and beyond.  That’s financial freedom.  And they also have one other thing going for them.  A looming TV deal in one of the biggest markets in the country that promises to bring a lot of cash.  Nothing helps teams win more than money, and the Astros are about to be making some.  They will re-build.  It will take a while.  But the Astros will be relevant again.  Just not this year.

Seattle Mariners 2013 Team Breakdown

Well it’s that time.  Football is done.  Pitchers and catchers have reported.  Everyone is heading out to purchase their fantasy baseball magazines.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to start breaking down teams and see what they are looking like for this year.  I waited for most of the free agents to sign.  Others may sign after I talk about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team breakdown as necessary.  Last year I started with the NL East.  This year I’ll start with the AL West.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  I’ll continue with the AL West and the team that finished in last place in 2012, the Seattle Mariners.

Projected 2013 Roster

C-            Jesus Montero

1B-          Justin Smoak

2B-          Dustin Ackley

SS-          Brendan Ryan

3B-          Kyle Seager

LF-          Raul Ibanez

CF-          Franklin Gutierrez

RF-          Michael Morse

DH-         Kendrys Morales

Starting Rotation:

Felix Hernandez, Hishahi Iwakuma, Blake Beavan, Erasmus Ramirez, Hector Noesi

Bullpen:

Tom Wilhelmsen (closer), Lucas Luetge, Charlie Furbush, Oliver Perez, Josh Kinney, Stephen Pryor, Carter Capps

Projected Batting Order

2B-            Dustin Ackley

3B-            Kyle Seager

RF-            Michael Morse

DH-           Kendrys Morales

C-              Jesus Montero

LF-            Raul Ibanez

1B-            Justin Smoak

CF-            Franklin Gutierrez

SS-            Brendan Ryan

The Mariners finished in last in the very competitive AL West last year.  They’ve done a lot to improve this year by adding some talented players through trades, signing some talented free agents, and, most importantly, by being in the division that added the Houston Astros.  Nothing will help the Mariners escape the basement more than the appearance of the hapless Astros in their division.  So that’s a good start.

The Mariners have been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball the last few years.  A lot of that has been their players.  A lot was their ballpark.  Then the ballpark, started keeping talented offensive free agents away, and the Mariners realized they needed to make a change.  What was once perception became a reality as players thought Seattle was a terrible offensive place to play, and they stayed away.  Having subpar offensive players truly made Seattle a terrible offensive place to play, so that’s what they addressed this offseason.  First, they moved in the fences.  Then they made two big trades to add offense, adding Michael Morse from the Nationals and Kendrys Morales from the Angels.  Those two bats, added to Jesus Montero, a trade from the Yankees last year, will hopefully give this team enough pop to compete.  In addition, they re-signed popular Raul Ibanez to be a left-handed power bat, though he’s likely a platoon player now against right-handed pitchers.  They also took a chance on Jason Bay, signing him to a low risk deal.  He can platoon with Ibanez, and they can hopefully produce enough power to be a threat.  However that’s not all it takes to compete, as the top two hitters in this lineup are up in the air.  I listed Ackley and Seager, though it could be reversed.  And neither is likely going to bring back memoires of Ricky Henderson.  Or even Kenny Lofton.  If the top of their lineup can’t get on base, then the bats of Morse, Morales, Montero, Smoak and Ibanez/Bay will be struggling to produce runs.  I like what the team has done, but they have to do a lot to compete in this division.

The leading hitter on this team was Jesus Montero last year, and he hit 260.  Ouch.  So it’s not just a power outage that Seattle was dealing with, it was total offensive ineptitude.  Morales, Bay, Ibanez and Morse all help with the lack of power.  Only Morales and Morse address the other hitting concerns, and just barely at that.  Kyle Seager was second on the team with a 259 AVG.  I put him second in my lineup.  Dustin Ackley hit an abysmal 226 last year.  Perhaps it was a down year.  Perhaps he was hurt.  I hope it was one of those for Seattle’s sake because otherwise his breakout rookie campaign could have been a fluke.  Who knows?  But the top of the lineup is an issue.  I put Ackley at leadoff because his skill set most closely matches that expected of a leadoff man.  But that may be a mistake with his struggles.  I put Seager second, but that may not be optimal as he led the team with 20 HR and 86 RBI last year.  Justin Smoak was second on the team with 19 HR, but that came with a 217 AVG.  Michael Morse would have been third with his 18 HR, and he only played in 102 games last year.  They need him to be a big HR hitter.  That should give Montero more pitches to hit, and he may be able to improve on his 15 HR.  Ibanez and Bay could combine for 15 more HR.  Morse and Morales could each have 20 in them.  And who knows what guys like Ackely, Seager and Gutierrez can contribute.  There should be more long balls this year, but if no one is on base, this team will still struggle offensively.  They’ll be better, but I don’t know if this offense will take them to the playoffs.

On the pitching side of things, King Felix was the team leader again.  He was actually second on the team with 13 Wins, but had a 3.06 ERA to go with a team leading 223 Ks.  He also led the team in IP, WHIP and BAA (among starters).  He is their best player.  And though he had a bit of a down year (for him), he was still superb.  With a new deal in place making him the highest paid pitcher in baseball, he will continue to lead this club.  He is a great pitcher in a great offensive division.  But he still competes and is one of the best pitchers in the game.  That being said, he can’t do it alone.  The second best pitcher on this team, Jason Vargas, was shipped off to LA for Kendrys Morales making their battle that much more difficult.  If we say it’s a wash and both teams made out equally positive, then they are in the exact same place they were before the trade.  And that leaves the M’s in 4^th place in this division, which is no longer last only because there is a new team that will be taking up lodging in the AL West’s basement for the next few years. Kevin Millwood was the M’s number 3 starter, was average at best, and is now gone too.  That brings us to Blake Beavan, who may now be their number 2 man.  He was 11-11 with a 4.43 ERA in 26 starts last year.  Hishashi Iwakuma started 16 games while pitching in 30 overall.  He should be the number 3 man.  Erasmus Ramirez will be number 4, though he only started 8 of his 16 games.  And Hector Noesi logged 18 starts in 22 games.  He fared the best of those last three, going 9-5 with a 3.16 ERA.  These starters should keep the Mariners in games, but that’s about it.  None of them are going to be All Stars (outside of Felix) and the Mariners are hoping a re-vamped offense will support their patchwork starting rotation.  Tom Wilhemsen and his 29 Saves lead their bullpen.  He was solid with his 2.50 ERA and should be set at the back end of that bullpen.  Oliver Perez re-invented himself as a left-handed specialist out of the bullpen with a 2.12 ERA in 33 games last season.  He’ll return to Seattle’s bullpen.  Lucas Luetge, Stephen Pryor and Josh Kinney all had sub-4 ERAs in their limited appearances last season.  All return and should be serviceable in Safeco this year.  This bullpen won’t win any awards, but should be okay.

2013 Outlook

Geography has been unkind to the Mariners.  They play in a division with some of the best teams in the league.  The Rangers have won 2 of the past 3 AL pennants, the Angels have been offseason champs for the past 2 years, and Oakland took their raw, young team and won the division last year.  The Mariners don’t have the money of the Angels, talent of the Rangers, or magic of Oakland.  Despite their additions, I think they will still finish behind all those teams again this year.  The pieces they added on offense will help, but all that power is limited when no one ever gets on base.  I think the Mariners will struggle to put men on this year.  And while King Felix is great and closer Tom Wilhemsen was good last year, there are questions behind those two, both starting and relieving.  The Mariners will finish exactly where they did last year, which is no longer last, only because the Astros are joining this division and may be the worst team in baseball.  That is the first time geography has done the Mariners a favor.  But the rest will be up to them.  And I don’t think they have the talent to get it done this year.  

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 2013 Team Breakdown

Well it’s that time.  Football is done.  Pitchers and catchers have reported.  Everyone is heading out to purchase their fantasy baseball magazines.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to start breaking down teams and see what they are looking like for this year.  I waited for most of the free agents to sign.  Others may sign after I talk about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team breakdown as necessary.  Last year I started with the NL East.  This year I’ll start with the AL West.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  We’ll stay in the AL West and move to the third place team, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Projected 2013 Roster

C-              Chris Ianetta

1B-            Albert Pujols

2B-            Howie Kendrick

SS-            Eric Aybar

3B-            Alberto Callaspo

LF-            Josh Hamilton

CF-            Peter Bourjous

RF-            Mike Trout

DH-            Mark Trumbo

Starting Rotation:            Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Tommy Hanson, Jason Vargas, Joe                                                 Blanton

Bullpen:                        Ryan Madson (closer), Ernesto Frieri, Scott Downs, Sean                                                 Burnett, Kevin Jepsen, Nick Maronde, Garrett Richards

Projected Batting Order

RF-            Mike Trout

2B-            Howie Kendrick

1B-            Albert Pujols

LF-            Josh Hamilton

DH-           Mark Trumbo

C-              Chris Ianetta

3B-            Alberto Callaspo

SS-            Erik Aybar

CF-            Peter Bourjous

The Angels were the darlings of the last offseason.  They made a huge splash with the signing of Chris Ianetta.  Then they also signed two other guys named C.J. Wilson and Albert Pujols.  Perhaps you’ve heard of them.  But everyone picked them to win the AL West, and many people had them going on to win the pennant and perhaps the World Series.  So their third place finish in the division and subsequent absence from the playoffs was probably the most disappointing finish for any team in baseball.  However the Angels have reason to look forward to this year.  In addition to returning a talented team that includes Albert Pujols, Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, Mike Trout emerged as possibly the best player in baseball last year.  After calling Trout up to the big leagues, he led the Angels had the best record in the league.  Trout also was able to lead the league in SB and R, while playing in 30 fewer games than the rest of the league.  And he was second in AVG (326, led his team) while also contributing 30 HR and 83 RBI from the leadoff position.  He should have been the MVP (you can click here for my comprehensive argument on that) and he comes into 2013 as one of the most exciting players in the game.  He returns to this team along with the aforementioned players, plus youngster Mark Trumbo and new acquisition Josh Hamilton, another poaching from their biggest rival the Texas Rangers.  GM Jerry DiPoto is becoming an expert in that. 

So the Angels are expecting to be near the top of the division again this year.  All of their team leaders are back.  Trout led the team in AVG, R and SB and is set to hit at the top of their order again.  He was tied for second in HR with teammate Albert Pujols, who was also the RBI leader with 105.  The leader in HR was actually young Mark Trumbo, who looks to take over the everyday DH position with Kendrys Morales departing via trade with the Mariners.  Josh Hamilton would have been the team leader if he were an Angel last year, as his 43 HR was second in the AL.  So you have the power of Trumbo, Pujols and Hamilton, not to mention power from Trout at the top of the lineup.  They expect him to get on base and score R, plus drive in the bottom of the order when necessary.  Howie Kendrick was solid last year, hitting 287 and he’ll be second.  Albert Pujols (285/30/105/85), Josh Hamilton (285/43/128/103) and Mark Trumbo (268/32/95/66) will make up the heart of this order with other solid players like Bourjous (possibly the fastest man in baseball) Ianetta (nice pop) and Aybar and Callaspo behind them.  It’s a formidable lineup with good numbers last year that should be even better this year.  The Angels should slug with the best of them in 2013.

The biggest issue for the Angels this year was fixing the starting rotation.  It wasn’t bad last year, but they lost 60% of their starters.  Dan Haren was their number 3 man and he left for the Nationals via free agency.  Zach Greinke was a trade deadline addition that went 6-2 in 13 starts for this team.  He also left via free agency, but stayed in the area joining the Dodgers.  And Ervin Santana was traded to the Royals.  So out of the guys who started the season on the starting rotation last year, only Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson return.  However the two guys they kept were the team leaders.  Weaver led the team with 20 Wins and a 2.81 ERA.  And Wilson led the club with 173 Ks.  Weaver led the team with 20 Wins in only 30 starts.  Wilson had the most starts (34), which helped him get the Ks and team IP lead (202).  None of these guys overpower you with strikeouts, but Weaver is a potential Cy Young winner every season and comes back to lead this staff.  Wilson has been good over the last few seasons and last year was no exception with a 3.83 ERA and a 13-10 record.  So the Angels felt good with their top two men returning.  Then, they went out and got some other solid guys to fill out the rest of the rotation.  They acquired their new number 3 man in a trade with the Braves.  They sent reliever Jordan Walden to Atlanta and got back young Tommy Hanson, one of the best young players in the Braves organization.  In his 4 years in the majors, Hanson is 45-32 with a 3.61 ERA and 8.4 K/9.  Last year he went 13-10 with a 4.48 ERA for the Braves, but started out the year as one of the hottest pitchers in the majors.  His ERA for the first half was one of the NL’s best, and he made a lot of lists of All Star snubs.  However an injury slowed him down in the second half, and made him much more hittable.  The Angels hope they get that first half pitcher and that a full season of health (he’s only made it to 30 starts in 2 of his 4 seasons) will see him approach his 162 game averages of 14 Wins with a sub-4 ERA.  Their new fourth starter joined the team in return for a trade involving Kendrys Morales.  With the addition of Josh Hamilton, the LA bench was getting very crowded.  So they sent Morales to Seattle got talented lefty Jason Vargas back.  Vargas was 14-11 last year with a 3.85 ERA.  He’s an innings eater (217 last year, 192+ the last 3 years) whose numbers may climb a bit now that he’s left Safeco Field.  But he’ll be a solid number 4 man in LA and will eat innings for this Angels team.  Joe Blanton was signed to start as well, and when you have a player of Blanton’s caliber as your number 5 starter, you like your chances.   Blanton was 10-13 with a 4.71 ERA for the Phillies and Dodgers last year.  But he’s another guy who’ll approach 200 IP and keep your team in games.  And that deep into your rotation, that’s all your looking for.  The Angels bullpen was led by Ernesto Frieri last year, who recorded 23 Saves.  He came out of nowhere to dominate in the 9^th with a 2.32 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 140 BAA and 80 Ks in 54 IP.  However as good as he was, they think he’ll make a better setup man.  So the Angels went out and got Ryan Madson to be their closer.  Madson was great for the Phillies two years ago, but was got Tommy John surgery in Spring Training after signing a deal with the Reds.  The Reds let him go and he missed all of 2012.  So he comes to LA to prove he’s still got it and should get first crack at closing.  But he’s also got setup experience, and if he falters they may switch Frieri and Madson.  They lost a power arm in Jordan Walen, but with Frieri moving to setup man, they just need middle and long relievers.  A spot starter, Garrett Richards moves into the long relief role while Scott Downs (9 Saves last year) and Sean Burnett move into the middle roles.  This Angels bullpen is solid, with a lot of experience. 

2013 Outlook

The Angels were picked to win it all by a lot of people last year.  But you have to play the games and that’s where the Angels struggled.  After a disastrous April, they turned things around and were probably the best team not to make the playoffs.  But that’s not much of a consolation prize as third place in the AL West is not what they had in mind.  They still look like the most talented team on paper in the West, and the addition of Hamilton with the emergence of Trout make this team frightening to behold.  The A’s came out of nowhere to win the division last season, but a lot of things went right for this team that is still young and unproven.  The Rangers lost a lot of players, some to the Angels, but are still a talented group.  And the Mariners are improving.  The Angels will get to beat up on the Astros, but so will everyone else.  The challenge for LA is to turn the off-season’s promise into wins on the field.  I think they can do it.  They made my look bad last season when I picked them to win the division.  But going back, I’d pick them again, and will do so this year.  I think they’ll win the division.  But if they don’t, it will be the second year in a row that they shock the world and underperform their way out of contention.

Texas Ranger 2013 Team Breakdown

Well it’s that time.  Football is done.  Pitchers and catchers are reporting in a week.  Everyone is heading out to purchase their fantasy baseball magazines.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to start breaking down teams and see what they are looking like for this year.  I waited for most of the free agents to sign.  Others may sign after I talk about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team breakdown as necessary.  Last year I started with the NL East.  This year I’ll start with the AL West.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  I started with the Oakland Athletics, so I’ll move on to the team that was second in the standings at the end of last season, the Texas Rangers.

Projected Lineup

C-             A.J. Pierzynski

1B-           Mitch Moreland

2B-           Ian Kinsler

SS-           Elvis Andrus

3B-           Adrian Beltre

LF-           David Murphy

CF-           Craig Gentry

RF-           Nelson Cruz

DH-          Lance Berkman

Projected Batting Order

2B-            Ian Kinsler

SS-            Elvis Andrus

DH-           Lance Berkman

3B-            Adrian Beltre

RF-            Nelson Cruz

C-              A.J. Pierzynski

1B-            Mitch Moreland

LF-            David Murphy

CF-            Craig Gentry

Starting Rotation-            Matt Harrison, Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, Alexi Ogando                                        

Bullpen-                        Joe Nathan (closer), Joakim Soria, Michael Kirkman, Jason Frasor, Tanner Scheppers, Robbie Ross, Wilmer Font

The Texas Rangers had a roller coaster season last year.  They spent the whole offseason listening to all the baseball commentators pick them to finish second behind the big spending Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  Then, they spend pretty much the first ¾ of the season in first place, with a lot room to spare.  Then they fell apart at the end of the year only to see the Oakland Athletics, not the Angels, a team with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, vault past them and win the division.  They were bounced by the Orioles in the one game playoff and ended their streak of 2 straight AL Pennants.  This offseason, they were outclassed by a lot of people and seemed to be lost.  They were negotiating with Josh Hamilton, but put him on a back burner while they pursued other players.  They missed out on Zach Greinke and Anibal Sanchez, before Hamilton spurned them for division rival Los Angeles.  This not only hurts the Rangers by subtraction, it hurts them even more due to the huge addition it brings to their most serious competition.  Nolan Ryan and the Rangers organization had an ugly falling out with Hamilton at the end of last year, with the bad blood escalating to a point where the crowd at a home game booed him.  But he’s tremendously talented and was a vital part of that team.  To see him leave crippled the team, especially while they failed to bring in any other quality players before and after his defection.  They are in a tricky position with a lot of talented young players, but some don’t have a position (Mike Olt) and others are blocked and perhaps not ready for the big leagues (Jurickson Profar).  And you don’t want to pin your hopes on rookies.  As the Rangers sat pat, confused and unsure of what to do, other solid players (Adam LaRoche) signed with other teams and trade options (Michael Morse, Justin Upton) fell through.  The loss of Hamilton stunned this team, and they never recovered.  Add to that the fact that they lost Mike Napoli to free agency and traded Michael Young, and Texas is quickly falling behind their AL West counterparts.  They brought in Lance Berkman to DH on a 2-year deal.  They also signed A.J. Pierzynski to be their starting catcher.  But neither can come close to filling the void left by Josh, even combined.  The Rangers made some mistakes this offseason, watching the baseball world whiz past them.  They will struggle catch up.

The roster and batting order I put up are the way things are looking right now.  Things could change.  There are rumors of Ian Kinsler moving to first base to make space for Jurickson Profar, but while he was agreeable to that idea at first, he’s backed off that stance lately.  Kinsler is now one of the main engines for this team.  He’s a perennial 30/30 candidate with 300 potential.  However he can never seem to put all that together at one time.  He generally either pops off 30 HR and hits 260 or hits 290 with 15 HR.  But they just need him to be a star.  Nelson Cruz and Adrian Beltre will have to be the meat in this order backing up the top of the lineup which manager Ron Washington has said will feature Lance Berkman hitting third. I like Kinsler third personally, or perhaps Beltre with Kinsler hitting 5^th, but as it stands right now, I bet this is the lineup.  It will be formidable, but missing serious pop without their star outfielder, who will be residing in LA.  Hamilton led the team in HR (43) and RBI (128).  Add in the departed Mike Napoli’s 24 HR, and that’s a lot of wallop that the Rangers have to make up. Hamilton, Napoli and Michael Young combined for 75 HR.  Berkman and Pierzynski will be hard pressed to replace that.  They’ll need help from Beltre again, as well as with Kinsler and Nelson Cruz, who finally stayed healthy for a full season.  His numbers were solid (260, 24 HR, 90 RBI, 86 R), but they’ll need him to be a star to make up for Hamilton.  Ian Kinsler was the team leader with 105 R and tied for first in SB with Elvis Andrus (21).  Adrian Beltre was a stud last year and was second with 36 HR and 102 RBI to go with the team leading AVG.  After him the drop off was steep. Kinsler had 19 HR and 72 RBI, but only a 256 AVG.  If he commits to power he’ll help make up for Hamilton, but he shouldn’t leadoff.  Andrus can leadoff, but Kinsler has more experience in that area.  We’ll see what the Rangers decide to do.  But the 75 lost HR are a lot, and the Rangers will really have to come up with a plan to make it up if they want to compete in the talented AL West.

The Rangers’ pitching has finally started to catch up with the offense.  They showed some talent in both seasons that they made the World Series.  And though they lost C.J. Wilson to the Angels before last season, they replaced him with a talented Japanese import in Yu Darvish and a surprise growth candidate in young lefty Matt Harrison.  Harrison ended up leading the team with 18 Wins and a 3.29 ERA.  However a regression to the mean is a very real possibility for this guy whose BAA (256) and WHIP (1.26) were very pedestrian.  Perhaps he figured something out, perhaps not.  But for a guy who only struck out 133 players in a team high 213.1 IP, he better be on top of his location as he’s not overpowering many hitters.  After Harrison, Yu Darvish was the star going 16-9 with a 3.90 ERA in his rookie year.  He led the team with 221 Ks in 190 IP.  His BAA (220) was much more sustainable, though his 1.28 WHIP was a little high.  I think he is probably the true ace of this staff.  After these two it dropped off a bit.  Derek Holland was solid, if unspectacular going 12-7 with a 4.67 ERA.  Colby Lewis was 6-6 with a 3.4 ERA, but only started 16 games.  Ryan Dempster and Roy Oswalt were bad and Neftali Perez was hurt.  Alexi Ogando was solid, but mainly in relief.  And rookie Martin Perez looked overmatched.  The Rangers will have to put together a rotation around the guys they have left, with the options less appealing the further down we go in the stats.  The rotation will start the season with Harrison, Darvish, Holland, Ogando and Perez most likely.  When Colby Lewis returns from injury around the All Star break, the question will be Perez or Ogando.  If Perez pitches well enough, Ogando will go back to the bullpen where he is dominant.  Otherwise Ogando will start (which is what he wants to do) and Perez will return to the minors.  Joe Nathan had a career renaissance saving 37 games for this club with a 2.80 ERA.  He struck out 78 in 64 IP and had a nice 231 BAA and 1.06 WHIP.  Their main setup men are gone in front of him (Koji Uehara and Mike Adams) and the next best reliever may be starting (Ogando).  So the middle relief is looking shaky and unproven.  Scheppers was okay last year and Soria will be a star set up man.  Add in Frasor and there is some depth, but the Rangers will again be worried about the middle relief in their bullpen.

2013 Outlook

Championships aren’t won in January for baseball.  But if there was some sort of ranking system to judge a team’s offseason activity, Texas would be near the bottom.  They are a great franchise with a ton of young, homegrown talent and the type of impact players that it takes to win consistently on the major league level.  However their division has caught up to them.  Oakland snatched the division from them last year, and the Angels had more talent.  The Angles continue to get more talented by poaching Texas free agents (C.J. Wilson, Josh Hamilton), which pretty much makes it twice as bad for the Rangers.  They have some stars on the team still (Kinsler, Beltre, Andrus, Cruz) and a solid core of starters.  If the middle relief doesn’t kill them, the back of the bullpen looks okay.  And they have nice role players to fill in the rest of the spots.  It’s not that the Rangers will be bad, they just won’t be as good as last year.  And with the Angels and Mariners improving, and the A’s finish ahead of them last year that may be enough to bury this Texas team come playoff time.  I predict a second place finish, and for this team, that’s a huge disappointment.

Oakland Athletics 2013 Team Breakdown

Well it’s that time.  Football is done.  Pitchers and catchers are reporting.  Everyone is heading out to purchase his or her fantasy baseball magazines.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I waited for most of the free agents to sign.  Others may sign after I talk about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team breakdown as necessary.  Last year I started with the NL East.  This year I’ll start with the AL West.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  So let’s start with the AL West Champion of 2012, the Oakland Athletics.

Oakland Athletics: 

2012 Record 94-68

Projected Lineup

C-              Derek Norris

1B-            Chris Carter

2B-            Jemile Weeks

SS-            Jed Lowrie

3B-            Scott Sizemore

LF-            Yoenis Cespedes

CF-            Coco Crisp

RF-            Josh Reddick

DH-           Chris Young

Projected Batting Order

CF            Coco Crisp

2B            Jemile Weeks

RF            Josh Reddick

LF            Yoenis Cespedes

1B            Chris Carter

DH           Chris Young

SS            Jed Lowrie           

3B            Scott Sizemore           

C              Derek Norris

Starting Rotation: 

Tommy Milone, Jarrod Parker, Brett Anderson, A.J. Griffin and Daniel Straily

Bullpen             

Grant Balfour (closer), Jeremy Blevins, Ryan Cook, Pat Neshek, Sean Doolittle, Pedro Figueroa and Jordan Norberto

Oakland shocked the world last season by coming out strong and playing great baseball with a young team.  In fact, most of these players were unfamiliar to anyone outside of the Bay Area.  In an offseason where the Angels spent huge money on Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson and the Texas Rangers looked to continue their AL West supremacy, the Athletics took their squad of unknowns and beat the mighty money spenders who share their division with them.  A lot of people thought they had punted on the season after trading Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill.  In addition, Billy Beane was holding out for a move to San Jose, which would do a tremendous amount to help the A’s make more money and be much more competitive than they are right now.  But the A’s took the guys they had, played good baseball behind manager Bob Melvin and won a ton of games.  The A’s are an example of how small market teams can play.  They have to be smart, draft well and develop young talent.  And that’s what the A’s do better than most teams in baseball.  They have some healthy players coming back, plus the strong core that drove them last year.  It’s hard to know how they’ll perform again, but it’s always a bad idea to bet against Brad Pitt (I mean Billy Beane).

Even though the A’s don’t have a ton of money, they do have a lot of talent, and the pleasant problem of trying to decide where everyone is going to play.  5 of the guys I listed as the starters above may not win their jobs in spring training.  And that’s only because the A’s have so many talented young players.  Chris Carter is battling Brandon Moss for the starting job at first.  Adam Rosales made a push to take over for Jemile Weeks at second.  Scott Sizemore was lost early last season to injury and Josh Donaldson had a breakout year.  The A’s traded to add Chris Young from the Diamondbacks to their roster to back up Coco Crisp in center and maybe DH.  Michael Taylor is still a talented young player out in right, but he’s certainly going to back up Josh Reddick.  Daric Barton and Seth Smith will push Chris Young for ABs at DH and the A’s made a trade for John Jaso who could spend some time behind the plate.  Even more recently they pulled an inter-division swap for SS Jed Lowrie, who will get his time at shortstop, second and perhaps his turn at DH, and give some insurance to new Japanese free agent Hiroyuki Nakajima.

The A’s were paced offensively by two breakout stars:  free agent Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes (from whom they expected great things…just not this great this soon) and right fielder Josh Reddick whom they received in a trade with the Red Sox.  Cespedes lead the team with a 292 AVG.  He was second in HR and RBI with 23 and 82 respectively.  He trailed Josh Reddick who led the team in both categories with 32 HR and 85 RBI.  If that can continue, the A’s will continue to score runs, which hasn’t always been a sure thing for them.  They also hope that a full season of Cespedes (missed 31 games due to injury), as well as full, healthy seasons from Coco Crisp and Jemile Weeks will give the top of their lineup some punch.  Crisp and Weeks have great speed and can hit for AVG (well above average AVG….that’s a confusing sentence).  Cespsdes has speed, power and can hit for high AVG and Reddick’s power can drive them all in.  Add in power from Young and Carter, and this team thinks they can compete with the big boys in their division.  The A’s team only has one legitimate star that can do it all.  But they have players who can each do a lot, and it may add up to be enough.  They have 4 players capable of 20+ SBs (Cespedes, Crisp, Weeks and Young) with their leadoff man a possible 50 SB candidate (Crisp).  6 players could break 20 HR (Cespedes, Young, Reddick, Carter, Lowrie and Donaldson) and in between they have solid guys who can get on base and keep the lineup moving.  They won’t be the Angels, but this team should score some runs.

On the mound, they were led by Jarrod Parker, who was fantastic in his rookie year.  After starting one game for the Diamondbacks the year before, he joined the A’s in the Trevor Cahill trade and became their ace.  He was tied for the team lead with 13 Wins, a 3.47 ERA and 140 Ks.  Tommy Milone was the IP leader with 190.  He chipped in a 13-10 record (tied for the team lead in Wins) with a 3.74 ERA.  They hope a full season of Brandon McCarthy will back them up as well, as he went 8-6 in 18 games with a 3.24 ERA.  That’s a strong core, with some young players that all got MLB experience filling in last year fighting for the last two rotation spots.  Competition is always good.  None of these guys are stars or power pitchers.  But all three kept their ERAs under 4 while turning in winning records.  With a solid offense and strong defense behind them, that’s a good recipe for winning games.  In the bullpen, 7 players notched a Save for Oakland last year.  The A’s are returning 6 of those guys, including the two with the most, closer Grant Balfour and set up man Ryan Cook.  Those players will nail down the back of the bullpen, while the others will be middle relievers.  All were solid in limited playing time, and the A’s hope a season of MLB experience will only help them improve.  If so, this A’s team is counting on pitching their way to the playoffs.

2013 Prediction: 

Oakland is fielding a talented young team.  They always do.  The issue with the A’s, is that they have so little money, that they can’t even keep their talented young players through arbitration it seems.  Oakland has to punt on players sooner than any other team in baseball, because they just can’t afford them.  A move to San Jose will help them.  They will make more money, and can hopefully earn enough to hang on to players a bit longer, or at least be able to sign some stars to team friendly deals, like Colorado and Tampa Bay have done.  For this season, they are returning most of the team they had last year.  That team was young, hungry and able to win the division.  A lot went right for them.  However, you can’t count on that again.  While this team is very talented, and I hold a ton of respect for them, expecting them to finish higher than third is wishful thinking.  They have the ability to do it, but they are the third best team in that division.  And I think that’s where they will end up.

The Foul Pole

How's it going everyone?  I'm about to begin putting up my team breakdowns for this upcoming year, but I wanted to make everyone aware of something exciting going on with me first.

I'm the co-creator and co-host of a sports talk show focusing on baseball that is having it's first broadcast on Thursday night from 7-8 PM Eastern.  The show is called The Foul Pole and is being broadcast on All Noise Radio, an internet radio station powered by the Connecticut School of Broadcasting.  You can click here to go right to the main page.  From there click on the "Listen to ANR Sports" tab and you'll be all set.  You can hear me Thursday at 7 and hear replays Friday morning from 7-8 AM Eastern and Saturday from 7-8 PM Eastern. Listen in to hear some good baseball talk from two die hard fans.

Hall of Fame Ballot Part 2

So this is part 2 of my Hall of Fame Ballot.  I broke down some of the smaller issues (which we learned aren’t that small) in the first part, which you can find here.  This second part sees my tackle the big issue and I tell you which guys received my vote.

There’s one major issue here.  And it’s steroids.  It’s been an issue in the past.  But this season, we have three guys who we know were juicing and have great numbers because of steroids.  This is the first year of eligibility for Bonds, Sosa and Clemens.  The unholy trinity.  Even within this quagmire, we have two levels.  Let’s separate them.  Some guys were going to the Hall of Fame before they took PEDs.  Some weren’t.  Sosa likely wasn’t going to make it without the juice taking him to 600+ HR.  So he’s the first guy I’ll dismiss.  The other two are a different story.

Barry Bonds started his career in 1986.  He was a 5-tool player.  By 1994, he had led the league in HR, RBI and R in a season, (though not the same one) stolen 52 bags in a season and had four years with a batting average north of 300.  He was a 6 time 20/20 player in that time, including being a 30/30 player twice.  He’d also gone to 4 All Star games, won 5 Silver Sluggers, 5 Golden Gloves and 3 (!) MVPs.  He was a 12-time BB leader and now has more career BBs and IBB (those being walks and intentional walks) than anyone in the game.  He was well on his way to being a hall of famer before the steroids.  However, after taking them (he is believed to have started them in 1999) he won 4 straight MVPs and Silver Sluggers, led the league in HRs with his record breaking 73 in a season while winning two batting titles.  However he stopped winning Gold Gloves and his stolen base numbers dropped precipitously.  His career high from that point on was 15, after stealing 30+ bases 9 times prior to that.  What’s the point of all this?  The steroids made his power numbers improve greatly, but he was a better all around player before that.  And due to that all around talent he was showing, he was likely heading to the Hall.  But he chased the long ball and the all time home run numbers, and became more one dimensional, though he did end up breaking all the records he sought.  PEDs made a Hall of Fame player an icon.  But it’s almost certain that he’d be in the Hall without the drugs.  Should that matter in this vote?  No matter what you think about his career after 1998, he would have likely been HoF bound before he took the PEDs.  Is that worth recognizing?

Roger Clemens started his career in 1984.  He is believed to have started juicing in 1998.  Prior to that he had five 20-win seasons, 6 ERA titles and led the league in Ks 5 times.  He had 5 Cy Young’s in that time and 1 MVP.  He already had over 200 Wins.  He, too, was headed for Cooperstown before the PEDs were taken.  Should guys like Clemens and Bonds receive more credit than other steroid users, who would never be Hall of Famers if they didn’t cheat?  It’s easy to say no and take a hard stance for ideological reasons.  But it’s a legitimate question, one that I haven’t settled yet.  Will we ever accept the steroid users?  It’s hard to know at this point, although at this moment the answer is clearly no.

At the end of the day, I’ve decided a few things:

1.              If a player was a giant in his era and had good numbers I think he’s worthy of a vote, even without the “magic numbers”.  If the numbers are good enough the awards can put them over the top

2.              If a player played during the Steroid Era, and had good numbers without taking PEDs, then that fact might push him over the top.  It’s not enough to make a guy a HoF contender on his own, but if he’s VERY close, that might get him my vote.

3.              While I think some guys may be HoF worthy, I think being a first ballot Hall of Famer is a special honor.  So there are guys who I won’t vote for on their first ballots that I may vote for later.

4.              PED users are a special case.  At this point, I don’t want to vote for them.  Beyond that, guys who are only on the Hall bubble because of steroids definitely don’t deserve to get in.  Guys who would have been Hall of Famers anyway, are more worthy, but perhaps still not worthy enough.  And while I’m unsure about them, I won’t vote for them.  Certainly not the first time.  Possibly ever.

So with that in mind, the only players on the ballot that I haven’t talked about yet are Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmiero, both steroid guys.  It’s not their first time on the ballot, but they are still no’s in my book.  I will be voting for someone this year.  A few guys.  And after a lot of consideration, the players who are getting my Hall of Fame vote are:

Jeff Bagwell, Dale Murphy, Jack Morris and Craig Biggio.  I may vote for others in the future (Piazza, Schilling), but for this season, I’m only voting for those 4 guys.

Biggio was the easiest choice as 3,000 hits is still impressive.  Biggio also hit a ton of doubles, stole a ton of bases and was good in the field.  Bagwell had numbers that compared favorably to steroid users.  And he did that playing against steroid users and never gave in to temptation to start juicing.  So while his numbers made him come close, his strength of character took him the rest of the way.

As for the older guys, I really like that complete game to Saves comparison that Morris suggested.  It showed how solid and dominant he could be.  He piled up over 200 Wins with a ton of Complete Games.  His ERA, WHIP and K numbers may be lacking, but he was still a dominant pitcher.  Not everyone in the HoF is an All-Time great.  But Morris was pretty great in his own right.

And last we have Dale Murphy.  His numbers were good, but not good enough.  His dominance in the game, that was worth a lot.  I saw it as enough to push him over the top.  Mattingly didn’t quite have the numbers or awards of Murphy, which makes him fall short in my opinion.  This is the last year for Murphy and Morris.  I think that makes them worth my vote, as there is a difference in players who make it in the first vote, as opposed to their last.

That’s my ballot.  I’d love to know what some of you think.  Share your votes with me or tell me what you think of the guys I voted for.