2012 NL Postseason Prediction

NL Playoffs

East Champion:                        Philadelphia Phillies

Central Champion:                   Cincinnati Reds

West Champion:                       Arizona Diamondbacks

Wildcard:                                  Milwaukee Brewers

Wildcard:                                  Atlanta Braves

The NL playoffs were harder to figure out.  There look to be 4 strong teams in the East and three in the Central.  The one that was easy was the West where I think the Diamondbacks will win their second straight division title.  They have quality young hitters with a star in right (Justin Upton), a power/speed threat in center (Chris Young), a Gold Glove defender and veteran power bat platooning in left (Gerardo Parra and Jason Kubel respectively), and a core of young players with a lot of experience under their belts in the majors (Miguel Montero, Aaron Hill, and Stephen Drew).  Add in young slugger Paul Goldschmidt and last year’s surprise at third Ryan Roberts, and there is not a single weak spot in this starting lineup.  They have a solid bench as well with Geoff Blum, Willie Bloomquist, Lyle Overbay and whoever isn’t playing between Parra and Kubel.  But what put the Diamondbacks over the top were their talented young pitching staff of Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill and Daniel Hudson.  All of them had fantastic seasons last year, two of them for Arizona and Cahill for Oakland.  Kennedy and Hudson have been touted as future stars for years, and finally put it together in 2011.  And Cahill has been great every year he’s been in the majors.  They were able to win without him last year, and the addition of him and Kubel makes this team my favorites to win the Weak Weak West.  The Giants have good pitching but no hitting.  The Dodgers have a few stars, but no supporting cast.  The Padres are re-building.  And the Rockies are going to make a run at things, but have a lineup of veterans taking their final shots and no pitching.  This division is Arizona’s to lose, and I don’t think they’ll let it get away.

The Central division was tougher to figure out, as there are 3 solid teams.  But the World Champs are trying to defend their title without Hall of Fame manager Tony LaRussa and offensive player of the decade Albert Pujols.  While the return of Adam Wainwright and a full season of David Freese should give this team a shot in the arm, I don’t think they will have enough to win this division a second year in a row.  The Brewers won the division last season, but lost big power hitting first baseman Prince Fielder to the Tigers.  While Braun was able to avoid the 50 game suspension that would have put them out of the playoffs entirely (in my opinion), I still don’t think they have what it takes to win the division.  The Cincinnati Reds do.  They should have been a threat to the Central title last season, but they criminally underperformed and lacked an ace.  They now have that ace in Mat Latos and great young arms behind him in Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Homer Bailey.  Their offense is the only one that didn’t suffer a dramatic drop off and now first baseman and former MVP winner Joey Votto is arguably the best hitter in the division.  His right side of the infield partner Brandon Phillips is a star and add to that an All Star outfield of Drew Stubbs, Ryan Ludwick and Jay Bruce and you have 5 players capable of 30 HR, and 3 capable of 30 steals.  I think the Reds have the best offense in the division and while the Cardinals and Brewers may have superior pitching, I think the Reds’ is strong enough to get the job done and help the Reds win some close games against those two foes.

Those Eastern teams all think they have what it takes to win the division.  The Phillies have won the division every year since 2007.  They are the favorites with their strong offense of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Hunter Pence.  The other key for the Phils is the supporting cast around them of Placido Polanco at the hot corner and Shane Victorino in center.  While that offense is very strong (and what used to be the best part of this team) this pitching staff may be the best in the majors with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels.  In addition, they strengthened the bullpen with the addition of Jonathan Papelbon as the closer and there will be fierce competition for the last spots in that rotation between Kyle Kendrick, Vance Worley and Joe Blanton.  They have to be considered the favorites to win the division again, even though Howard will miss some time and Polanco had a down year.  If they can stay healthy and hit better this year the division should be theirs to win.  Last year their primary competition was from the Atlanta Braves, who had the second best record in the NL for a long time and even after they lost that, they had the Wildcard sewn up until the last day of the season.  Their epic collapse was a shock to the team, who decided to sit pat in the offseason, thinking that they were good enough to win the Wildcard until they squandered it away.  It’s quite the risk to take, but they like what they have.  They hope a full season of Michael Bourn and a bounce-back year from Jason Heyward can give this team the offensive burst it was missing from last year.  They’ve had fantastic pitching for years and were the only team who could match pitchers with the Phillies.  They hope their guys can continue to pitch well in 2012, even though Tim Hudson is due to miss the start of the season.  Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson are expected to lead this staff, with Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor backing them up.  They may even try to trade Jurrjens in the season for a big bat, as they have the talented duo of Randall Delgado and Juilo Teheran (a popular pick for Rookie of the Year) waiting in the wings.  They have young pitchers out the ying yang and one of the best bullpens in the majors, led by last year’s rookie of the year Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty.  But if this offense can’t deliver, then they will continue to struggle and possibly get passed by one of the other teams that improved in their division this season.  Dan Uggla had a miserable start, though he was on fire to end the season.  Martin Prado missed most of the season with injury.  And they have a rookie starting at short.  But if Uggla can live up to his contract, and McCann and Heyward power this club to some victories, they have to be considered the front runners for second in this division, if only due to their recent successes.  But if they don’t hit, this is the year the improved Marlins or Nationals will finally vault past them.  The Marlins are moving into a new stadium this season and want to get there in style.  So they’ve signed a new shortstop in Jose Reyes, a new closer in Heath Bell and a new starter in Mark Buehrle to join their new manager, Ozzie Guillen.  They have a lot of room for improvement after finishing dead last in the division in 2011. They hope their ace, Josh Johnson, can stay healthy this season and lead a young pitching staff that features Ricky Nolasco, Buehrle, Anibal Sanchez and the newly acquired Carlos Zambrano.  All of those guys are solid with plus potential.  With that pitching staff, the Marlins may finally have what they need to jump into playoff contention.  In addition, their offense got a major facelift with new leadoff man Jose Reyes at short.  He’ll lead off for this team, Hanley Ramirez will bat third and Mike Stanton and Gaby Sanchez will try to knock the runners in.  Stanton is expected to be a star and some people think he can be the slugger this team is lacking as soon as this year.  I’m not convinced they have the necessary muscle to contend on offense, though a Ramirez/Reyes left side of the infield can provide plenty of runs.  If Stanton isn’t ready to be the slugger everyone is picturing, then that just leaves Gaby Sanchez and John Buck to power this club and I think they will fall short.  Without that strong offense, Nolasco and Sanchez could struggle and Beuhrle is good but not an ace.  And you can only have so many divas on a team managed by a highly volatile individual before the clubhouse explodes and it affects the play on the field.  This team is a lot better than they were a year ago.  But I think they will fall short of the playoffs this year.  The real threat to the Braves (again, in my opinion) comes from the Washington Nationals.   Finishing near the bottom of the standings for years has ensured the Nationals high picks in the drafts and that has translated into great young players joining this organization.  They have had the two most hyped players in the history of baseball in Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper.  Strasburg figures to be the ace of this rotation that features an All Star from last season in Gio Gonzalez, talented youngster Jordan Zimmerman and solid veterans John Lannan and Edwin Jackson.  And the Nationals offense has been really good for the past few years with All Star Mike Morse in left field and All Star Ryan Zimmerman at third.  They are backed up by talented youngsters Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos and veterans Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche.  And if Bryce Harper can make the major league club and perform to expectations, then this team could have the best offense in the division.  They have been re-building for so long, that as long as they stay healthy, they have every reason to think they can make the playoffs.  They expect to.  With 4 great teams, this will be a great year for baseball in the Eastern division.  But there can only be one winner, and I think it will again be the Phillies. 

That brings us to the questions of which two teams take the Wildcards.  I think there are two spots for 5 strong teams, 3 from the East and 2 from the Central.  The Braves pitching should be good enough to net them the second spot in their division (again in my opinion).   The Nationals have the talent on both sides of the ball to keep them in the running, surpassing the Marlins who will struggle to drive in runs and struggle to not kill each other in the clubhouse.  The Braves, Marlins and Nationals should all play well, but unfortunately will all beat up on each other.  I think that will keep two of those teams out.  All are good enough to make the playoffs, but that almost guarantees that only one will.  I think one of the strong Central teams will end up with a better record due to easier inter-divisional matchups.  Between the two Central teams I considered, I think the Brewers offense of Braun, Hart, Aramis Ramirez and Weeks is superior to the Freese, Holliday and Berkman led offense of the Cardinals.  By the same token, I do give the Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia, Westbrook rotation of the Cards the nod over the Brewers Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo combo, though it’s close.  In the end the bullpen of Milwaukee is superior and I think they have the offense to support those pitchers and get them into the playoffs.  So my Wildcard picks are the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers.

That sets up a one game matchup between the two Wildcard teams, where I think the Brewers will be victorious.  The Braves lack a true ace, and have the kind of pitching staff that makes them look good in a 3 game series.  However unless they win the division, they won’t see that in the playoffs.  After the Brewers beat the Braves, they will move on to play the Phillies.  I think Philadelphia will be the victor in that series, while the Reds should dispatch the Diamondbacks.  That gives us an NLCS of the Reds vs. the Phillies.  It’s hard to bet against the Phillies, but I like the Reds a lot this season, and think they can psych themselves up to beat the Phillies in a big playoff series.  That makes them the winners of the NL Pennant and I have them moving on to play the Los Angeles Angels in the World Series.  And I believe the winner of the 2012 World Series will be the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in a strong 6 game performance against the Reds.

2012 AL Postseason Predictions:

AL Playoffs:

East Champion:                        New York Yankees

Central Champion:                        Detroit Tigers

West Champion:                        Los Angeles Angels

Wildcard:                                    Tampa Bay Rays

Wildcard:                                    Texas Rangers

The AL features two divisions that should be fairly tough to decide, and one that’s pretty easy.  While I acknowledge that anything can happen in a baseball season, on paper the Detroit Tigers look to be the clear favorites in the AL Central.  They have the best pitcher in baseball (Verlander) and one of the most potent offenses in the AL.  With Prince Fielder at first and Miguel Cabrera at third they have a fantastic slugger who hits for plus AVG and a fantastic hitter who hits for plus power.  While Fielder has 40 HR and 120 RBI potential, Cabrera’s numbers could be even better at 35 HR, 120 RBI and a 320+ AVG.  Add to that offense All Star catcher Alex Avila, All Star shortstop Johnny Peralta, power threat Delmon Young in left, and some combo of Ramon Santiago, Ryan Raburn and Brandon Inge at second/DH, and this offense is stacked.  And after Verlander, their starters are solid with Scherzer, Porcello and Fister and a bullpen with Jose Valverde closing things out.  While Cleveland is going to make a run and the Royals think they may be finally on the upswing, no other Central team looks to be even remotely as frightening as the Tigers.

It’s a tougher story in the other two divisions.  In the West you have two really good teams, who may both be able to make it into the playoffs with the added wildcard slot.  I think both the Angels and Rangers are fantastic.  But on paper the Angels look a little better.  Their starting pitching is certainly better.  And while Texas has a better bullpen, the Angels have the kind of starters that make a weak bullpen seem moot (though it never is).  And while both have good offenses, the Angels don’t have enough spots to play all their talented players.  That makes injury seem almost inconsequential on this club.  The Rangers, on the other hand, have two stars in the their corner outfield positions that never can stay healthy, and while they have plenty of depth too, (Michael Young backs up the infield and DHs while they have 2 solid outfielders who can back up Hamilton and Cruz) the drop off is too huge.  The Angels have no major injury risks, and their backups are good enough to start.  The Rangers injury risks anchor their lineup hitting 3 and 4, and their backups are just very good complimentary players at this point.  In a division where both teams will be good and have winning records, I have to think the Angels will win the West. 

That brings us to the East where there are three good teams looking to win the division.  Last year we all assumed the Red Sox would run away with the pennant.  However injury and ineffectiveness kept them out of the playoffs.  The Yankees had terrible starting pitching and won the division, and the Rays had no offense, but made a run at the end of the season and took the Wildcard.  This season, the Yankees greatly improved their pitching and the Rays look to have added depth to their offense.  And the Red Sox lost a pitcher for the year to Tommy John surgery.  Things have turned around quite drastically for this division in an offseason filled with big name free agents staying away from the behemoths in the East.  The Red Sox are still a good team, but need to stay injury free to really contend.  They have three starters that can match up to the Yankees three starters, and both have strong offenses.  But I think you have to give a nod to the Yankees offense as stronger as they are set everywhere and the Red Sox have question marks at short and in right.  And neither team has the pitching to match up to the Rays.  While the Rays have the best pitching of those three teams, their offense lacks the punch of the big boys.  You could even argue that they have the worst offense in the division (the Blue Jays are certainly better with the bats....the Orioles…maybe).  But they hope the additions of Luke Scott and Carlos Pena will give them some punch and a full season of Desmond Jennings will re-ignite them.  And good pitching generally beats good hitting.  For that reason I think the Rays will be able to beat the Red Sox and take second in this division.  It’s tough, because each team is strong in different areas.  But the two that ended up making the playoffs last season both improved on paper, and you can’t say that about the Sox.  In addition, the Yankees offense was able to win the division over the Rays pitching.  And while both teams addressed their weak areas, the Yankees made a much greater improvement to their pitching than the Rays did to their offense.  For that reason I think the Yankees have the inside track on the division title.

Now we have the Wildcard discussion.  This is the first season that all three teams from the AL East could make it into the playoffs.  The addition of a second wildcard changes the playoff landscape drastically.  A lot of people would just assume that all three strong East teams would be playing in October.  But I think there is no way that all three teams can play each other that many times, and not suffer with their overall win/loss record.  In addition, the introduction of a second strong team in the West should keep at least one of the Eastern teams out of the playoffs even with that second wildcard.  I already picked the Rays to finish second in the division because I think strong pitchers beat strong hitters.  I think that earns them the first Wildcard slot.  If the Red Sox end up finishing third to both the Rays and Yankess, I don’t think their record can stand up to a team like the Texas Rangers, who only have one true rival in their division.  No one else from the Central looks strong enough right now to overtake the Sox or the Rangers.  And with the quality of play in the East vs. the West, I have to pick the Rangers to win the second wildcard. 

And seeing this through to the World Series…I think the Rangers will beat the Rays in the one game Wildcard round.  After that, the Rangers will move on to play the Tigers, while the Yankees will play the Angels.  I think the Angels will get over their AL East Postseason jitters and knock out the Yankees, while the Tigers will dispatch the Rangers.  That gives us an ALCS matchup of the Tigers vs. the Angels, which I think the Angels will be able to win.  I’ll post my World Series winner in my NL Postseason post, which will be coming up next.

Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

Texas Rangers:            The last team we will look at this offseason will be the Texas Rangers.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Mitch Moreland

2B            Ian Kinsler

SS            Elvis Andrus

3B            Adrian Beltre

LF            Josh Hamilton

CF            Julio Borbon

RF            Nelson Cruz

C              Mike Napoli

DH           Michael Young

Projected Starting Rotation:

Colby Lewis

Yu Darvish

Derek Holland

Neftali Felix

Matt Harrison

Projected Batting Order:

2B            Ian Kinsler

SS            Elvis Andrus

LF            Josh Hamilton

RF            Nelson Cruz

DH           Michael Young

3B            Adrian Beltre

C              Mike Napoli

1B            Mitch Moreland

CF            Julio Borbon

The Rangers played well in 2011, winning the AL West for the second year in a row.  At 96-66, they had the second best record in the AL went on to win their second straight pennant.  They like the way their team has been playing the last few years, and hope that the addition of new Japanese star pitcher Yu Darvish will push them over the hump and make them World Series champions.  But before they make it there, they have to win their division and overcome a much-improved Angels team. 

The Rangers have been a strong hitting team for years.  With new team president Nolan Ryan taking over; they’ve started to improve on the mound, and that improvement has seen the Rangers win the pennant two years in a row.  But this is still a hit first team, and they play in a great hitters park in Arlington.  Michael Young led the team in AVG last year.  He’s been a professional hitter his entire career, moving from short to third to DH to playing some first last year.  They just want him in the lineup.  If he plays, he’s going to hit.  So they will find him a spot in the lineup, even if he has to DH.  And while he doesn’t have great power (11 HR) or speed as he gets older (6 SB), the former batting champ consistently hits for a high AVG and can drive in runs in the middle of the lineup (team leading 106 RBI last season).  His replacement at third base played well despite some injuries last season.  Adrian Beltre played in 124 games, hitting 296 with a team leading 32 HR and 105 RBI.  He played well in his first season in Texas, and hopes to stay healthy enough for a full season in Texas, which could lead to 35 HR and 110 RBI.  He does all that while playing great defense at third base.  Staying on the left side of the infield, we find shortstop Elvis Andrus.  Andrus played well in the number 2 hole last year, hitting 279 with 96 R and 37 SBs.  He was a big piece in the Mark Teixiera trade with the Braves, and has gone on to play All Star caliber short for this club.  His double play teammate, Ian Kinsler, is a great hitter.  He can hit for high AVG or good power.  But he’s never been able to really do both in the same season.  The closest he came was hitting 319 with 18 HRs in 2008.  In 09 he hit 253 with 31 HR.  In 2010 he hit 286 with only 9 HR.  Last year was a big power season, as he hit 255 with 32 HR.  The pattern says he’ll hit for AVG this year, but who knows.  We can expect anywhere from 10-35 HR, 250-320 AVG, 75-120 R and 15-30 SBs.  He’s an interesting player, as he performs well in multiple categories each year, we just don’t know which ones they will be.  But they like him at the top of this lineup, getting on base, hitting home runs, stealing bases and scoring runs.  He’ll do a mix, but will certainly make a big difference in this lineup.  The last member of this infield is first baseman Mitch Moreland.  Moreland played in 134 games last year, and showed some nice power.  He hit 259 with 16 HR and 51 RBI.  He doesn’t have the firepower of a lot of his teammates, but he has plus power and plays both first base and right field.  He is slotted to start at first, but will likely cede time to Michael Young.  In the outfield we have a combination of good ballplayers.  Nelson Cruz is slotted to be the starter in right, but that’s only if he can stay healthy, which he hasn’t been able to do.  He’s never played more than 128 games in a season, but that year saw a 260 AVG with 33 HR, 76 RBI, 75 R and 20 SBs.  2010 saw a 318 AVG with 22 HR, 78 RBI and 17 SBs.  And he did all that in only 108 games.  Last year he played in 124 games, hitting 263 with 29 HR, 87 RBI and 9 SBs.  So who knows what to expect year to year for this guy.  He could hit 300 with 30 HR, 15 SBs and 75 RBI.  We have to expect that if he ever played a full season, he could hit 40 HR with 100 RBI and maybe 30 SBs.  But that’s unlikely, as he’s never proven he can stay healthy.  Over in left field we find the other Ranger who can never stay healthy, Josh Hamilton.  Hamilton is probably the best hitter on this club.  Last season he hit 298 with 25 HR, 94 RBI, 80 R and 8 SBs.  He only played in 121 games last season, down from his MVP year in 2010 that saw 133 games with a 359 AVG, 32 HR, 100 RBI and 95 R.  Hamilton played some center field last season, but he seems to stay healthier when he’s in left.  Regardless, any time that he’s healthy he’ll be hitting third in this potent lineup, and is one of the best hitters in baseball.  Depending on how many games he’s able to play, he could be a 300 hitter with 30 HR, 10 SBs and 100 RBI.  The center fielder on this team will either be Julio Borbon or Craig Gentry.  Borbon played in only 32 games last season, hitting 270 with 10 R and 6 SBs.  In 2010, he started off slow, losing his job at the top of this lineup.  But he played better throughout the year hitting 276 with 15 SB and 60 R.  They want him to get on base, steal second, and score runs.  He hasn’t shown that he can do that with regularity yet.  Because of that, he’s in danger of losing his job to Craig Gentry.  In 64 games last season, Gentry hit 271 with 1 HR, 13 RBI, 26 R and 18 SBs.  He doesn’t have a lot of experience, but he’s a good player who could take over the starting job if Borbon struggles.  However neither one of them figures to get much playing time unless they earn it.  David Murphy is also in this outfield rotation, and can play right or left field.  With the injuries to Cruz and Hamilton, Murphy played in 120 games last season, hitting 275 with 11 HR, 46 RBI, 46 R and 11 SB.  If Hamilton and Cruz are both healthy, then he’ll likely get playing time in left while Hamilton moves to center.  Murphy hits well enough that they will make that move and send one of the center fielders to the bench if they aren’t playing well.  And it gives manager Ron Washington flexibility with players like Young, Murphy, Borbon, Gentry and Moreland who can be shuffled in and out of the lineup to keep people fresh and give the hot bats some plate appearances.  And that’s part of what makes this offense so great.  There are a lot of quality hitters, and they’ve all done their parts to make this team the AL Champion for two straight seasons. 

The Rangers finally started pitching well in 2010.  Last year they continued the trend.  They had a lot of good pitchers, but no real ace the first year they won the pennant.  Last year an ace emerged in C.J. Wilson.  Unfortunately for Texas he became a free agent and signed with the Angels.  It would seem that the Rangers were going to lack an ace again.  However they are hoping they signed one in Japanese phenom Yu Darvish.  They paid Darvish a ton in both is contract and posting fee.  But he’s the highest touted player to come out of Japan ever and major league scouts think he truly could be the ace of this organization.  If they’re right, then Texas has a decent shot to repeat as AL West champs.  After Darvish, they are looking at Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, and Matt Harrison coming back to start again.  In addition, they are giving All Star closer Neftali Feliz a shot to start and they also have Alexi Ogando around who pitched well in his 29 starts.  Derek Holland is likely the number two man.  He was Mr. Shutout last season with 4.  His 3.95 ERA was the best of his 3 year career and he won a team high 16 games.  His BAA was a little high (262) as was his WHIP (1.35).  He’s not an ace, but he has his moments.  If he can bring down that WHIP and BAA then he should be a lock for 15 wins.  If not, then he’ll need a lot of luck to keep that ERA under 4.  Colby Lewis is also back after regressing a bit from his 2010 numbers.  He pitched well, winning a career high 14 games and logging 200 IP for the second straight year.  However he struck out far fewer (196 in 2010 and 169 in 2011) and hitters found the ball better (227 BAA 2010 and 244 2011).  But 244 is still a good BAA and his WHIP of 1.21 was also solid.  If he brings that ERA down (4.40), he could challenge Derek Holland for the number 2 spot in this rotation.  Next we find Matt Harrison who played his best season ever.  He went 14-9 with a 3.39 ERA.  While all these numbers look good for Texas, you wonder if they missed their windows with at least 4 starters having the best seasons of their careers, and their secondary numbers not always supporting them.  Exhibit C is Matt Harrison’s great ERA with a pedestrian 257 BAA.  The year before his ERA was 4.71 so you have to worry that some of these pitchers had years that were the exception, rather than the rule.  The 5^th starter of last year was Alexi Ogando, who is seemingly pitching for his job this spring.  In his second year in the majors, and first as a starter, he was a tremendous 13-8 with a 3.51 ERA.  This came after a 2010 season that saw a 1.50 ERA in 44 relief appearances.  He might be the best 5^th starter in the game, and he’s still improving.  The depth to this starting rotation is ridiculous.  Ogando looks like the real deal, and, in my opinion, shouldn’t be the one to lose his job to Feliz.  (He may not be).  Only his 1.14 WHIP surpassed his 234 BAA.  Neftali Feliz is the guy trying to break into this group.  He had his second All Star season as a closer in a row last year with 32 Saves in 38 opportunities.  His 2.74 ERA was solid and his 194 BAA was silly.  Those numbers are expected to rise as he moves into a starting role, but he started in the minors and always had ambitions on starting with the big league club.  Having too many starters is always a nice problem, and I think with injuries almost guaranteed in this game, we will see all 6 of these guys start in 2012.  This group of starters will hand things off to one of the best and most under-used bullpens in the league (4 of the starters had 185+ IP, and Alexi Ogando had 169 in only 25 starts).  Joe Nathan was signed to be the closer (though I doubt they’ll hesitate to use Feliz if Nathan struggles since they have a wealth of starters).  He hopes to return to his All Star form if healthy.  And he is set up with two of the best set up guys in baseball in Mike Adams and Koji Uehara.  With those three and Scott Feldman and the loser in the Ogando/Feliz/Harrison starter sweepstakes this bullpen again looks to be stellar and give the Rangers some of the best pitching in the AL.  They may not have the ace to beat your best guy.  But in a 3 game series, chances are 2 of their 3 starters will be better than yours as they have a wealth of number 2 or 3 caliber starters and a possible ace in Darvish.  On a team where hitters are still kings, these pitchers can make some noise.

2012 Prediction…The Rangers are still a great hitting team in a great hitters park.  They lost an ace, but may have signed a new one.  And even if they didn’t, they have a wealth of quality pitchers who are at least second or third starter caliber.  Other than C.J. Wilson, they haven’t lost much.  And they hope to have replaced him with Yu Darvish.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is that the Angels added Wilson to an already strong pitching staff and are have a stronger rotation 1-3 for sure, possibly 1-4.  When your 5^th starter is better than theirs, that’s not much to boast about.  The Rangers want to think they still have better hitters, but the Angels also added Albert Pujols.  They are a team with too many strong hitters, as they will be looking to give Morales, Abreu, Wells, Hunter, Trout and Trumbo playing time.  The Rangers on the other hand, have some depth with Cruz, Hamilton, Borbon ,Gentry and Murphy, but two of those players have long injury histories and two others are very young.  If we call both offenses equal (which is a question), you have to believe the Angels have more depth.  Add to that better starters (though the Rangers have pretty good ones) and you are really only giving the Rangers the better bullpen advantage for sure.  In all, it boils down to a fun race to watch for the AL West, but one I think the Angels will win.  If the Rangers make the playoffs, it will likely be as a wildcard, but they will have to play better than at lest two of the three behemoths in the AL East.  This will be a tough year for the Rangers.  They will need their whole team to stay healthy and play like they did last year if they want to see some playoff baseball.

Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

Seattle Mariners:            The next team in the AL West (alphabetically) is the Seattle Mariners.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Justin Smoak

2B            Dustin Ackley

SS            Brendan Ryan

3B            Chone Figgins

LF            Mike Carp

CF            Franklin Gutierrez

RF            Ichiro Suzuki

C              Miguel Olivo

DH           Jesus Montero

Projected Starting Rotation:

Felix Hernandez

Jason Vargas

Hisashi Iwakuma

Hector Noesi

Blake Beavan

Projected Batting Order:

3B            Chone Figgins

2B            Dustin Ackley

RF            Ichiro Suzuki

DH           Jesus Montero

1B            Justin Smoak

C              Miguel Olivo

CF            Franklin Gutierrez

LF            Mike Carp

SS            Brendan Ryan

The Seattle Mariners finished dead last in the AL West last season with the second worst record in the league.  They’ve had pretty good pitching the last few years, but also terrible hitting.  Part of that is because big hitting free agents don’t want to play in Safeco.  But this team has been cobbling together rosters for a while, never really fully committing to re-building, but also never putting out stellar teams that can make it to the playoffs.  Once again, this season looks the same for Seattle.  They have lots of talent on the field, but it’s unproven.  They hope the big acquisition of Jesus Montero can give this club the big bat they need.  If they finally put together some offense, they might be able to pull themselves out of the basement in the AL West.

Ichiro led this team in AVG again last year, as he has every year for the past 400 years.  However, he had a down season (for him) in 2011, failing to reach 200 hits and staying under 300 for the first time ever.  He still had a good season for a mere mortal, but this god of hitting is not pleased with a 272 AVG and 184 hits.  He still stole 40 bases and scored 80 runs at the top of this anemic lineup.  But they’ve decided to make a change this season.  Manager Eric Wedge has decided to move Ichiro down to third in the batting order.  For years Ichiro has put on a show in batting practice, launching monster homer runs into the far reaches of Safeco Field.  When asked why he doesn’t do that in games, Ichiro said he could hit 20-30 homers in a season…if he was allowed to hit 260.  But he was paid to get on base and score runs.  So we’ll see if any of that changes this season.  His career high in homers came in 2005 when he hit 15.  And of course saying you can hit 25 home runs and actually hitting 25 home runs are two different things.  But hitting third in that order should give us another season of plus batting average (I’m betting around 300, maybe not 320), and 70+ RBI.  If he can get to 20 HRs, then maybe 85+ RBI are possible.  And while he may not score 100 R this season, with his speed (40 SBs last year) and his ability to get on base, I’d say 75+ R are possible with 30 SB.  If this experiment works for the Mariners, he could be driving in runs, while getting on base himself, stealing a base to get into scoring position and then scoring when the middle of the order bats drive him in, even if they just hit singles.  That’s the hope for this club.  We’ll see if it works.  Having runners on base has never been the issue for this club.  Having big bats drive them in was the issue.  Miguel Olivo led the team with 19 HR and 62 RBI last season.  Neither of those numbers were bad, especially for a catcher.  But neither should be leading a team.  Olivo’s plus power is nice, though his AVG is less than stellar (224).  He’ll likely hit 6^th in this lineup.  First baseman Justin Smoak should hit in front of him.  His 15 HR were a positive sign last year.  He’s young and they want him to succeed.  But his AVG left a lot to be desired (234) and they hope a higher AVG will bring more RBI.  Left fielder Mike Carp is a similar story, though he’s had less experience in the majors.  However his 276 AVG last season was a good sign.  He played in 79 games, his most in the majors.  That 276 AVG came with 12 HR and 46 RBI.  He played well enough to win the starting left fielder job, and they hope that a full season can see that AVG stay up near 300 and maybe more ABs could see 20+ HRs.  He’ll probably hit in the lower half of the lineup to begin the season, but they hope that he can hit himself higher up into a middle of the order slot.  While there is hope for those young players and hope that Ichiro will step up in his new batting slot, the one thing they hope is a sure thing is the big bat of Jesus Montero.  While his major league experience is limited, in 18 games last season he made a grand audition hitting 328 with 4 HR and 12 RBI.  They traded away a talented young pitcher to get him, and they hope that he can finally anchor this lineup and bring the power bat that they’ve been sorely lacking.  He’ll be expected to drive in the hitters at the top of this lineup, which will likely be third baseman Chone Figgins and second baseman Dustin Ackley.  Ackley was a rookie in the 2011 season and played well in his limited time.  In 90 games, he hit 273 with 6 HR, 36 RBI, 6 SBs, and 39 R.  They liked how he played, and it was doubly impressive since he spent the beginning of the year in the minors learning how to play second base.  He’ll likely hit second of for this club, unless Figgins struggles at the top of the lineup, in which case he could lead off.  Figgins, formerly a tremendous leadoff hitter for the Angels, really struggled last season.  Injury limited him to 81 games, but in a half season of work he hit an abysmal 188 with 1 HR, 15 RBI, 24 R and 11 SB.  The power doesn’t really matter with him, but they desperately need him to hit better than 188.  They want him to take the leadoff job from the All Star Ichiro, and need him to return to his All Star ways.  His last season in LA, saw a 298 AVG, 42 SBs and 114 R.  In his one healthy season with Seattle he hit only 259 with 62 R, though he did still steal 42 bases.  His numbers from last season stretched out over a full season show him still declining with 22 SBs, and 48 R.  They need him to get on base and score runs.  If he can, then this team could improve on its offensive woes.  If not, then they will struggle.  Because beyond Figgins and Ackley, the only hitter left is Brendan Ryan who is a soft batted, strong gloved shortstop.  And this season they may finally have some decent hitters in the middle of the lineup.  But those hitters can only drive guys in if those guys get on base.  When you move your best hitter to the middle of the lineup, other guys have to step up in front of him to do his job.  If not, then this lineup will continue to struggle to score runs, just in a different way than it has in the past.

The Mariners’ pitching is built around Felix Hernandez.  The former Cy Young Winner led the team with 14 Wins, a 3.47 ERA, 222 Ks and 232 IP.  It wasn’t quite as strong as his Cy Young effort in 2010 but 14 wins on this club is pretty good.  And while his ERA was good, it wasn’t as low as the Mariners would have liked.  His 248 BAA showed that he was hittable and his 1.22 WHIP was also a bit of a relapse, though not bad at all.  He’s still the King, but they’d be happy if he made another run at a Cy Young.  After Hernandez, Doug Fister and Michael Pineda were the next strong pitchers on this staff.  The Mariners build around pitching, because hitters don’t fare well in Safeco.  But with both gone, the Mariners hope they have a strong enough nucleus to contend now and think they’ve gotten some solid investments for the future.  Jason Vargas will be the number 2 man on this staff and he pitched decently last season.  His 10-13 record wasn’t where he wanted it to be, but it’s what can be expected with a 4.25 ERA and 260 BAA.  He doesn’t strike out too many guys and they’d like to see him induce weaker contact.  But his 201-inning effort last season was much appreciated, and they’d love to see that again.  They wish he’d develop into more than an innings eater, but they hope with their improved offense and the new pitchers they got for the back end of the rotation they’ll be okay with one ace and a number two man who only eats innings.  The last three starters in this rotation are relative newcomers.  Iwakuma is a Japanese pitcher, who played well enough to get signed by an MLB team.  While he doesn’t project to be a star, the Mariners hope the friendly confines of Safeco will help him to be effective.  Hector Noesi (acquired with Montero in the Pineda trade), has been a highly touted youngster in the Yankees farm system for a while.  He pitched in 30 games for the Yanks last year, starting 2.  Overall he went 2-2 in 56 IP with a 4.47 ERA and 45 Ks.  He pitched mainly in relief, but they hope with more ML experience his 286 BAA and 1.51 WHIP will come down.  This season will be his first as a full time starter.  And the 5^th starter on this club will likely be Blake Beavan.  Beavan started 15 games for the Mariners last season, going 5-6 with a 4.27 ERA.  He’s another rookie who survived his first year in the majors despite a 278 BAA.  They hope that he’ll improve with a full spring preparing to start for the Mariners.  If he struggles Charlie Furbush is waiting in the wings, but he really struggled last season with an ERA north of 5.  They really don’t expect too much out of the back of this rotation, but hope that they can keep the team in games.  The bullpen looks okay with Brandon League as the closer and George Sherrill back there in middle relief.   But with other unproven arms in that bullpen, the Mariners hope the friendly confines of their home park will shelter these pitchers and help them find their way. 

2012 Prediction…The Mariners have had weak hitting and strong pitching the last few years.  After a weak 2011, they traded away two of their better arms in hopes that the returns they got will make them a better team sooner rather than later.  They think one ace, one innings eater, and three newcomers with upside can subsist in a pitchers park and learn how to pitch in the majors.  They also hope that a new power bat in the DH slot will be what they need to score some runs.  They have guys who can get on, and they finally hope a new role for Ichiro and a push from Montero will get those guys in.  I like what the Mariners did in the offseason.  But I don’t think it will be anywhere near good enough to make the playoffs.  The AL West will be a two-team race between the Rangers and Angels, and I think a good goal for the Mariners this season is to try to be 500 or better.

Up next…Texas Rangers.

Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

Oakland Athletics:            The next team we will look at will be the Oakland Athletics.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Daric Barton

2B            Jemile Weeks

SS            Cliff Pennington

3B            Josh Donaldson

LF            Coco Crisp

CF            Yoenis Cespedes

RF            Josh Reddick

C              Kurt Suzuki

DH           Manny Ramirez

Projected Starting Rotation:

Brandon McCarthy

Dallas Braden

Bartolo Colon

Jarrod Parker

Brad Peacock

Projected Batting Order:

LF            Coco Crisp

2B            Jemile Weeks

CF            Yoenis Cespedes

DH           Manny Ramirez

RF            Josh Reddick

C              Kurt Suzuki

1B            Daric Barton

3B            Josh Donaldson

SS            Cliff Pennington

The Athletics haven’t been in contention in the AL West for the last few years.  The last time they were in the playoffs was in 2006.  They’ve finished last or second to last every season since then except for a second place finish in 2010 that saw only a 500 record.  They’ve entered a re-building stage and are trying to get back into contention with a group of talented youngsters.  But they aren’t there yet.  After letting Josh Willingham go in free agency and sending away a few talented young pitchers, they are in full re-building mode and hoping to relocate to San Jose.  In fact, they are adamant about the move and upset that the Commissioner’s Office hasn’t addressed the issue fully yet.  Some think Billy Beane is just sending away all the talent on the team and waiting to start re-building until the Commissioner lets them move.  I don’t think he’s truly doing and they do have lots of talent in the minor leagues that they’d like to see in the majors.  But Beane did let two talented young pitchers go fairly early in their careers, and I think he’s planning on a full re-build.  I’m sure he doesn’t want to start it until they get their location settled.  The A’s think the move will be great for the franchise and will bring in a little more money for the team. The hope is that a slightly higher revenue stream will enable them to hang on to their talented young players a little longer and maybe earn them a playoff berth in the near future.

The A’s haven’t been sluggers in a while.  Their offense has been very weak the past couple of seasons, and they’ve subsisted with good pitching.  Last year was no exception.  Cliff Pennington had the best AVG on the team, and it was an unimpressive 264.  Josh Willingham led the team in HR and RBI with an impressive 28 HR and 98 RBI.  But he left for Minnesota.  After him, Kurt Suzuki was the HR leader, with 14.  Hideki Matsui was second with 72 RBI, but he’s also gone.  That makes the current RBI leader…Cliff Pennington with 58.  Ouch.  They make the Atlanta Braves look like the New York Yankees.  This offense sorely needs some punch.  They hope to have found that in Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes, who is likely to open the season in center field.  That moves Coco Crisp to left, which leaves Seth Smith and Jonny Gomes looking for at bats at DH.  However after 50 games, Manny Ramirez is likely to be the primary DH.  So Gomes and Smith will look to take time over at first, which is already crowded with Daric Barton, Brandon Allen and Kila Ka’aihue over there.  The people getting the most playing time will be the ones with the most pop in their bats, as this team sorely needs some power.  Last year only 5 hitters had double digit home runs and 3 of those 5 hitters have departed.  Of the two remaining, third baseman Scott Sizemore sustained an injury and will miss the entire 2012 season.  So they hope that one of the first baseman can find a power stroke, as Suzuki needs help, and Manny and Cespedes are neither too old nor young to be in their power prime.  The one thing this team doesn’t lack is speed.  Coco Crisp stole 49 bases last season, Jemile Weeks 22 and Cliff Pennington 14.  But it doesn’t always translate into runs.  Crisp scored 69 R in 136 games.  His 264 AVG and 314 OBP left a lot to be desired.  Weeks was better, though he only played in 97 games.  He hit 303 with a 340 OBP and 50 R.  There is suspicion that he might take the leadoff job from Crisp, moving him to second in the order.  Either way, they want these two to get on base, steal bases and score runs.  With Pennington hitting ninth, they have three guys in a row with great potential, but none of them have shown that they can consistently hit for a high AVG, and therefore haven’t approached 100 R.  If they can get on base more regularly, that will be the first step in Oakland’s offense coming alive.  However scoring runs also requires big bats to drive them in.  Yoenis Cespedes is supposed to be that bat, but this will be his first year in the majors and he’s relatively unproven.  He’s got good power and speed, and also plays a good defensive center.  But even with all that upside, he’s still a wildcard this season.  Manny Ramirez hasn’t played in a while.  He missed essentially all of last season when he got busted for PEDs.  As it is, he’s been suspended for the first 50 games of this year.  When he gets back he should still be able to hit for good contact, but I don’t know how much power is left in the tank, especially in the Oakland Colliseum.  While he’s gone, Seth Smith and Jonny Gomes will split DH time, and while both have some pop, neither is a true power hitter.  Right fielder Josh Reddick played well in Boston last season, hitting 280 with 7 HR and 28 RBI in 87 games.  He’ll probably hit 5^th in the lineup but I don’t think Athletics fans should be expecting 25+ HR.  If he can get to 15 it’ll be a good season for him.  The A’s will drive in runs by having rabbits on the bases and guys with good contact and plus power drive them in.  The last guys on this offense are the soft-batted group of first basemen and the newcomer who’s taking over at third for Scott Sizemore.  I’m guessing Josh Donaldson is the new third baseman while all a ton of people will play first until one stands out.  They’d like it to be Ka’aihue or even Allen, but so far it’s been Barton.  This offense could be better this year, but I think Oakland fans can still expect plenty of 3-2 games.

The one area where the A’s excelled last season was on the mound.  They had two young studs leading this staff in 2011, but unfortunately both have been sent off to new teams while the A’s continue to try to build contenders on a shoestring budget.  With Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez gone, Brandon McCarthy is the new ace and was recently named the Opening Day starter.  He only pitched 25 games last year, but went 9-9 with 5 complete games and 1 shutout.  His ERA was a strong 3.32 and he did a good job stranding runners.  His BAA was a little high at 258, but he was able to keep most of those guys on base.  He struck out 123 guys in 170 innings and had a fantastic 1.13 WHIP.  He’s the ace this season, but he probably won’t measure up to Cahill and Gonzalez.  And it drops off mightily behind him.  Dallas Braden fought the injury bug all of last year and only started 3 games after needing shoulder surgery.  He’s only one year removed from a perfect game in a season that saw a strong 3.50 ERA.  He’s no stud, but a solid, reliable pitcher who can get guys out.  They want a full season of him next year.  The third pitcher in this rotation is a low risk free agent signee.  Bartolo Colon came back to baseball last year after missing all of 2010 and making only 19 starts from 2008-2009.  Last year he made 29 for the Yankees injury depleted rotation and went 8-10 with an ERA of 4.  The former Cy Young winner still knows how to get guys out, though many wonder how his arm is able to stay attached to his shoulder.  (He apparently got an injection of stem cells into his shoulder to repair the tissue damaged when he tore a rotator cuff after his Cy Young season in 2005…MLB was investigating the legitimacy of that treatment).  He’s not expected to do much for this staff, but if he can eat some innings and get guys out the A’s will be thrilled.  He brings a veteran presence to this young team, and assuming his right arm doesn’t fall off he’ll be a solid pitcher for them next year.  After these three, some young guys are trying to get slots in the rotation.  The A’s have lots of young pitching so this is essentially pretty wide open.  Right now, Jarrod Parker has the inside track at the number 4 slot.  The A’s received Parker in the trade that sent Cahill to the Diamondbacks.  For that reason, they really want him to win the job and be a solid starter.  And if I had to guess at a 5^th starter, I’d go with one of the guys they got for Gonzalez in the trade with Washington.  Brad Peacock started 2 games for the Nationals last year going 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  His BAA was 167 and he had 4 Ks over 12 IP.  Now he also had 6 walks and the sample size is ludicrously small.  But if he can earn the starting job in Spring Training, the A’s will at least feel like they got decent value for the two guys who they had to trade away before free agency hit.  Those starters hope to pitch well enough to keep their team in low scoring games so that their offense might be able to win some games scoring 2 runs. 

2012 Prediction…The A’s have struggled the past few seasons.  They have some great baseball people and a strong class of minor leaguers waiting to join the team.  Unfortunately, they are unable to keep them around very long, as they can’t afford to pay them big roster bonuses to keep them from hitting free agency.  They hope a move to San Jose will re-invigorate the franchise and give them the added cash flow necessary to field consistently strong teams.  But the immediate future looks dim for this club.  Texas has been good the last two years, and the Angles look fantastic.  The A’s are likely playing for third this season, and unless something major is done with this franchise (like a move to a new location) they will be playing for third the next few seasons too.

Up next…Seattle Mariners

Hot Stove:  A rundown of each team in the offseason and what they are looking to improve in 2012. 

Los Angeles Angels:                        The next team we will look at is the first team in the AL West, (alphabetically) the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Projected Starting Lineup:

1B            Albert Pujols

2B            Howie Kendrick

SS            Erik Aybar

3B            Alberto Callaspo

LF            Vernon Wells

CF            Peter Bourjous

RF            Torii Hunter

C              Chris Ianetta

DH           Kendry Morales

Projected Starting Rotation:

Jered Weaver

Dan Haren

C.J. Wilson

Ervin Santana

Jerome Williams

Projected Batting Order:

SS            Erik Aybar

2B            Howie Kendrick

1B            Albert Pujols

DH           Kendry Morales

RF            Torii Hunter

3B            Alberto Callaspo

LF            Vernon Wells

C              Chris Ianetta

CF            Peter Bourjous

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of the great state of California of the United States of America of the North American continent of the planet Earth of the Milky Way galaxy finished at 86-76, a respectable 10 games over 500.  However they were second to the Texas Rangers for the second year in a row and owner Arte Moreno decided he didn’t want that to happen again.  Fighting speculation that he was cheap and didn’t like to spend big on free agents (after losing out on Mark Teixiera and Carl Crawford) Moreno pulled the trigger on some major signings this season.  The biggest one was obviously new catcher Chris Ianetta.  He also signed a first baseman named Pujols and a starter named C.J. Wilson.  We’ll see if either of those guys can help back up Ianetta and this squad looking to overtake the Rangers this year.  All kidding aside, the Angels have the best offensive player of the decade on their team now.  With his moving to first, injured incumbent first baseman Kendry Morales looks to be the primary DH option.  But that spot is already pretty crowded with Bobby Abreu and youngsters Mike Trout and Mark Trumbo.  All of these guys want to play.  But I think we are likely to see a rotation of Abreu and Morales this season with Trout getting time in the outfield and giving a break to Hunter and Wells.  Trumbo could begin the season in the minors, learning how to play third base since Pujols will be at first for the next decade.  The Angels have plenty of talented hitters.  And while some are old (Abreu) or injured (Morales) they have plenty of depth to enable other veterans to take time at DH and let some youngsters play the field (Trout, Trumbo, Izturis). 

The Angels batting title winner last season was Alberto Callaspo, who looks to bat 6^th on this team.  He hit 288 with 6 HR, 46 RBI, 54 R and 8 SBs.  He doesn’t really have the speed you look for in a top of the order bat, or the power of a middle of the order man.  In fact, once Trumbo can play third he becomes expendable.  But he sees the ball well and has a tremendous OBP (366 with 58 BBs to only 48 Ks).  So they are happy to have him start the season at the hot corner.  Last year’s leader in HRs and RBI was actually Mark Trumbo, who hit 29 HR and drove in 87.  So I don’t know how long he’ll be learning in the minors, if at all.  He did all that with a respectable 254 AVG in his rookie season.  This kid is going to be a star.  His power stroke is already major league ready.  So I guess the best-case scenario for this team is that he excels at third this spring training and is ready to take over for Callaspo.  But that seems unlikely, and he’ll either be on the bench or in Triple A to start the 2012 season.  It just goes to show how strong this offense is when they have the ability to send a 29 HR player to the minors.  So let’s not waste any time.  I know you are all interested in talking about the new guy.  So let’s talk about that big free agent acquisition.  Chris Ianetta is slotted to be the primary backstop for this club.  I make jokes, but the Angels are thrilled to have him on the team.  He’s a veteran bat with plus power from a position that often lacks punch.  His 15 HR potential will be welcome at the bottom of this order, even if his AVG (238 last season) is unspectacular.  Moving to the top of the order we find the Angels’ middle infield tandem of Erik Aybar and Howie Kendrick.  Shortstop Erik Aybar is likely to be the leadoff man after hitting 279 last year and leading the team with 30 SBs.  They’d like to see that OBP percentage improve and hope that taking a few more walks will enable him to score more R (71 in 2011).  But he had good speed and hits for plus AVG so they are happy with him leading off.  Batting second for this team will be second baseman Howie Kendrick.  Kendrick played well last year, staying healthy and hitting all up and down the lineup.  He was best out of the two hole, and with a healthy group of players behind him he looks to be the obvious choice to bat second in 2012.  Last year he hit 285 with 18 HR, 63 RBI, 86 R and 14 SBs.  He contributes in every category in an above average way.  He’s the perfect number two hitter with the potential for a 300 AVG and a 15/15 campaign.  I wouldn’t be surprised if his skills and supporting cast make him an All Star this season with a career year ahead of him.  Moving out of the infield we find an outfield made up of a youngster in center and two veterans in the corners.  2011 rookie Peter Bourjos had a strong audition last season.  He hit 271 with 12 HR, 43 RBI, 72 R and 22 SBs.    He’s the center fielder of the future in LA, and the Angels management is thrilled that he was ready to take the reins last year.  That brings us to the corners of the outfield where we find Vernon Wells in left and Torii Hunter in right.  Wells struggled last year, as the weight of that big contract he signed continues to weigh him down.  He hit an abysmal 218 last season.  They thought he may have finally gotten over the overrated label that’s been put on him in recent years as he had a great 2010 campaign (273, 31 HR, 88 RBI, 79 R).  And while his speed has essentially left him (15 SBs the last two years) and his AVG hasn’t been over 300 since 2007, the one good sign from last season was his 25 HR coming after his 2010 total of 31.  If he can’t contribute in all categories like he used to, they’d at least like him to be good in one.  If that means power then 20+ HR is what they’d like him to deliver.  Anything else is gravy.  Now for something completely different, we have Torii Hunter.  His entire career Hunter has been the epitome of a multiple category stud.  He’s not a star in any of them, but well above average in all of them.  Last year was his first full season in right (after 600 straight Gold Gloves in center).  Some thought it would affect him at the plate.  Hunter used to be a lock for 270+ AVG, 20+ HR, 80+ RBI, 80+ R and 10-15 SB.  And while age affected some of last season’s numbers (5 SBs and 262 AVG), he still played well in the other categories and was a great defensive right fielder.  He hit 23 HR, drove in 80 runs and scored 83.  In a game that’s so fluid, consistency is an incredibly valuable asset.  And Hunter is slotted to hit 5^th in this lineup, and will likely continue to be an above average player in almost all aspects of the game.  Hitting right in front of Hunter will likely be DH Kendry Morales.  The caveat to that is health.  He hasn’t played since May of 2009 after breaking his leg in a walk off celebration that caused him to miss the rest of the 09 season.  In an even more frustrating turn of events, he hurt his ankle while rehabbing and missed all of 2011.  The last healthy season he had saw a 306 AVG with 34 HR and 108 RBI.  If he can return to those kinds of numbers, he’ll be a force in the middle of this lineup.  One of the players who will challenge him for at bats (besides the corner outfielders who will take time at DH to take a breather) is last year’s primary DH Bobby Abreu.  Abreu has started to show some signs of age as he played very little in the field last year and hit 253, one of his lowest AVGs ever in a season.  In addition, his power dipped to 8 HR and 60 RBI.  He still has surprising speed (21 SBs) but he’s on the backswing of a great career.  He recently said that he didn’t want to be on the bench, and if he wasn’t playing full time the Angels should trade him.  After talking to the manager and GM, he said he was happy being assured 400 ABs and some time in the outfield.  I imagine they want to hang on to him until they know what they have in Morales.  He’ll DH a few times a week and maybe spell the corner outfielders.  The last member of this DH rotation will be Mike Trout.  Trout didn’t announce his presence to the majors like his initialed counterpart Mark Trumbo, but he’s been touted as one of the top minor leaguers in the Angels system for a while.  In 40 games last year he hit 220 with 5 HR, 16 RBI, 4 SB and 20 R.  They hope to continue easing him into major league pitching and see if he starts to figure it out a little better in his second year.  And that brings us to the biggest free agent acquisition of the year for the Angels (seriously this time), Albert Pujols.  Pujols is far and away the best hitter in baseball.  He’s a stud.  A star.  The best offensive player of our generation.  Last year was an off year for him.  And it still saw a 299 AVG with 37 HR, 99 RBI and 105 R.  He’s played in at least 143 games every season since 2001 and hit 312 or higher every year except for last year.  In fact he hit over 320 every season since 2002 except for last year.  And he’s not just hitting for a fantastic average each year, he’s had 32 or more HR every year since 2001 too.  From 2003 to 2006 he hit at least 42 HR and drove in at least 117.  2008 and 2009 saw 47 HR and 135 RBI and 42 HR and 118 RBI.  He’s a serious hitter.  And in the middle of this lineup, I have every reason to believe that he’ll hit over 300 again with 30-45 HR and 100+ RBI.  Not to mention 95+ R.  He will be the key cog in this Angels offensive machine.  This offense was formidable before (last year’s injuries not withstanding), but always lacked a big power bat (except for the one year Morales played well).  With Pujols as that big bat, there is no limit to what this offense can achieve.

The Angels’ hitters were good last year and look to be great this year.  The pitchers were great last year, and seem to have only gotten better in the offseason.  Jered Weaver led the team with 18 Wins, a 2.41 ERA and 198 Ks.  He was in the Cy Young discussion (although Verlander had that pretty tightly wrapped up).  Weaver had 4 CGs, 2 shutouts and a 235 IP, which was good enough for second on the team.  In addition, his secondary numbers (212 BAA, 1.01 WHIP) were strong enough and Weaver’s had enough of a positive history that the Angels feel this guy can be their ace and pitch like this for them every year.  I mentioned that Weaver was second in IP.  The team leader was Dan Haren, who is one of the best number two starters in the majors.  Haren was 16-10 with a 3.17 ERA and 192 Ks.  He matched Weaver’s 4 CGs but threw a third shutout that Weaver didn’t.  His BAA was pretty good as well (235) and his WHIP was almost as good.  He gave up more hits, and that translated to more runs.  But I don’t think any Angels’ fans have a problem with what Haren did last year.  With these two atop the rotation, the Angels have two legitimate studs that can almost guarantee a victory in a 3 game series before the third game is even started.  The third starter for this team will be the new free agent acquisition, C.J. Wilson.  Wilson not only improves their team because he’s a quality pitcher, but since they poached him from the Rangers (the team that’s won their division for two straight years) they weakened their biggest rival as well.  Wilson had a career year last season, going 16-7 with a 2.94 ERA and 206 Ks.  While he was pretty good in 2010, his first season as a starter, he became a star last year.  His WHIP and BAA were strong as well, and he gives the Angels a third pitcher who can throw over 230 innings and strike out 200 hitters.  There’s a drop off after these three, but any team that only has a significant drop from the 3 to 4 starters is in good shape.  In addition, the Angels’ fourth starter is better than just about any other number 4 man in the league.  Ervin Santana had a disappointing 11-12 record that spoiled the look of his other fantastic numbers.  Despite the losing record, he threw a superior number of innings (228) and struck out plenty of guys (178) while recording a very good ERA (3.38).  The only difference between him and the guys in front of his is a higher BAA, though still a strong one (241).  Santana threw a no-hitter at one point, and is no slouch when he’s a little off.  He had 17 Wins in 2010.  And he’s an important piece of this starting rotation, which is really strong from top to bottom.  If there’s one question, it’s at the 5^th spot in the rotation where Jerome Williams steps in to replace Joel Piniero and Tyler Chatwood.  He’s bounced around the majors in recent years, but went 4-0 with a 3.68 ERA in 6 starts for the Angels last season.  He’s not a big strikeout guy and doesn’t have pinpoint control.  But we are still talking about a number 5 starter with a sub 3 ERA, and passable secondary numbers (1.36 WHIP and 269 BAA).  This guy is not expected to do too much.  They just want him to keep the team in games.  And if he can do that, he’ll be successful.  If the Angels have a weak spot, it might be in their bullpen as closer Jordan Walden struggled at times last season.  But their middle relief is stout (Scott Downs, LaTroy Hawkins, Hisanori Takahashi) and their starters so strong and offense so potent, that there may not be too many save situations to sweat.

2012 Prediction…The Angels were the best team in the AL West for a long time.  For the last two years, they’ve finished just behind the Rangers, who are also very good.  The Athletics and Mariners don’t figure to be too much of a threat, so they just needed to be better than the Rangers.  So Arte Moreno went out and got the best hitter in baseball to join his club and also a strong young starter.  This team now looks to be the favorites to win the division.  And no disrespect to Texas, but on paper the Angels have to be the best team.  Anything short of a division title will be a failure.  This team hopes to play deep into the playoffs and bring home another World Series to the Angels fans.  And I think they can do it.  I have to pick them to win the division.  And if for some reason they don’t, then that means they and Texas both likely won enough games to make the playoffs, and the Angels are the wildcard team.  I’d be shocked if this wasn’t a playoff team next October.

Up next…Oakland Athletics