Hot Stove: A rundown of each team in the offseason
and what they are looking to improve in 2012.
Texas Rangers: The
last team we will look at this offseason will be the Texas Rangers.
Projected Starting
Lineup:
1B Mitch
Moreland
2B Ian
Kinsler
SS Elvis
Andrus
3B Adrian
Beltre
LF Josh
Hamilton
CF Julio
Borbon
RF Nelson
Cruz
C Mike
Napoli
DH Michael
Young
Projected Starting Rotation:
Colby Lewis
Yu Darvish
Derek Holland
Neftali Felix
Matt Harrison
Projected Batting
Order:
2B Ian
Kinsler
SS Elvis
Andrus
LF Josh
Hamilton
RF Nelson
Cruz
DH Michael
Young
3B Adrian
Beltre
C Mike
Napoli
1B Mitch
Moreland
CF Julio
Borbon
The Rangers played well in 2011, winning the AL West for the
second year in a row. At 96-66,
they had the second best record in the AL went on to win their second straight
pennant. They like the way their
team has been playing the last few years, and hope that the addition of new
Japanese star pitcher Yu Darvish will push them over the hump and make them
World Series champions. But before
they make it there, they have to win their division and overcome a much-improved
Angels team.
The Rangers have been a strong hitting team for years. With new team president Nolan Ryan
taking over; they’ve started to improve on the mound, and that improvement has
seen the Rangers win the pennant two years in a row. But this is still a hit first team, and they play in a great
hitters park in Arlington. Michael
Young led the team in AVG last year.
He’s been a professional hitter his entire career, moving from short to
third to DH to playing some first last year. They just want him in the lineup. If he plays, he’s going to hit. So they will find him a spot in the lineup, even if he has
to DH. And while he doesn’t have
great power (11 HR) or speed as he gets older (6 SB), the former batting champ
consistently hits for a high AVG and can drive in runs in the middle of the
lineup (team leading 106 RBI last season). His replacement at third base played well despite some
injuries last season. Adrian
Beltre played in 124 games, hitting 296 with a team leading 32 HR and 105
RBI. He played well in his first
season in Texas, and hopes to stay healthy enough for a full season in Texas,
which could lead to 35 HR and 110 RBI.
He does all that while playing great defense at third base. Staying on the left side of the
infield, we find shortstop Elvis Andrus.
Andrus played well in the number 2 hole last year, hitting 279 with 96 R
and 37 SBs. He was a big piece in
the Mark Teixiera trade with the Braves, and has gone on to play All Star
caliber short for this club. His
double play teammate, Ian Kinsler, is a great hitter. He can hit for high AVG or good power. But he’s never been able to really do
both in the same season. The
closest he came was hitting 319 with 18 HRs in 2008. In 09 he hit 253 with 31 HR. In 2010 he hit 286 with only 9 HR. Last year was a big power season, as he hit 255 with 32
HR. The pattern says he’ll hit for
AVG this year, but who knows. We
can expect anywhere from 10-35 HR, 250-320 AVG, 75-120 R and 15-30 SBs. He’s an interesting player, as he
performs well in multiple categories each year, we just don’t know which ones
they will be. But they like him at
the top of this lineup, getting on base, hitting home runs, stealing bases and
scoring runs. He’ll do a mix, but
will certainly make a big difference in this lineup. The last member of this infield is first baseman Mitch
Moreland. Moreland played in 134
games last year, and showed some nice power. He hit 259 with 16 HR and 51 RBI. He doesn’t have the firepower of a lot of his teammates, but
he has plus power and plays both first base and right field. He is slotted to start at first, but
will likely cede time to Michael Young.
In the outfield we have a combination of good ballplayers. Nelson Cruz is slotted to be the
starter in right, but that’s only if he can stay healthy, which he hasn’t been
able to do. He’s never played more
than 128 games in a season, but that year saw a 260 AVG with 33 HR, 76 RBI, 75
R and 20 SBs. 2010 saw a 318 AVG
with 22 HR, 78 RBI and 17 SBs. And
he did all that in only 108 games.
Last year he played in 124 games, hitting 263 with 29 HR, 87 RBI and 9
SBs. So who knows what to expect
year to year for this guy. He
could hit 300 with 30 HR, 15 SBs and 75 RBI. We have to expect that if he ever played a full season, he
could hit 40 HR with 100 RBI and maybe 30 SBs. But that’s unlikely, as he’s never proven he can stay
healthy. Over in left field we
find the other Ranger who can never stay healthy, Josh Hamilton. Hamilton is probably the best hitter on
this club. Last season he hit 298
with 25 HR, 94 RBI, 80 R and 8 SBs.
He only played in 121 games last season, down from his MVP year in 2010
that saw 133 games with a 359 AVG, 32 HR, 100 RBI and 95 R. Hamilton played some center field last
season, but he seems to stay healthier when he’s in left. Regardless, any time that he’s healthy
he’ll be hitting third in this potent lineup, and is one of the best hitters in
baseball. Depending on how many
games he’s able to play, he could be a 300 hitter with 30 HR, 10 SBs and 100
RBI. The center fielder on this
team will either be Julio Borbon or Craig Gentry. Borbon played in only 32 games last season, hitting 270 with
10 R and 6 SBs. In 2010, he
started off slow, losing his job at the top of this lineup. But he played better throughout the
year hitting 276 with 15 SB and 60 R.
They want him to get on base, steal second, and score runs. He hasn’t shown that he can do that
with regularity yet. Because of
that, he’s in danger of losing his job to Craig Gentry. In 64 games last season, Gentry hit 271
with 1 HR, 13 RBI, 26 R and 18 SBs.
He doesn’t have a lot of experience, but he’s a good player who could
take over the starting job if Borbon struggles. However neither one of them figures to get much playing time
unless they earn it. David Murphy
is also in this outfield rotation, and can play right or left field. With the injuries to Cruz and Hamilton,
Murphy played in 120 games last season, hitting 275 with 11 HR, 46 RBI, 46 R
and 11 SB. If Hamilton and Cruz
are both healthy, then he’ll likely get playing time in left while Hamilton
moves to center. Murphy hits well
enough that they will make that move and send one of the center fielders to the
bench if they aren’t playing well.
And it gives manager Ron Washington flexibility with players like Young,
Murphy, Borbon, Gentry and Moreland who can be shuffled in and out of the
lineup to keep people fresh and give the hot bats some plate appearances. And that’s part of what makes this
offense so great. There are a lot
of quality hitters, and they’ve all done their parts to make this team the AL
Champion for two straight seasons.
The Rangers finally started pitching well in 2010. Last year they continued the
trend. They had a lot of good
pitchers, but no real ace the first year they won the pennant. Last year an ace emerged in C.J.
Wilson. Unfortunately for Texas he
became a free agent and signed with the Angels. It would seem that the Rangers were going to lack an ace
again. However they are hoping
they signed one in Japanese phenom Yu Darvish. They paid Darvish a ton in both is contract and posting
fee. But he’s the highest touted
player to come out of Japan ever and major league scouts think he truly could
be the ace of this organization.
If they’re right, then Texas has a decent shot to repeat as AL West
champs. After Darvish, they are
looking at Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, and Matt Harrison coming back to start
again. In addition, they are
giving All Star closer Neftali Feliz a shot to start and they also have Alexi
Ogando around who pitched well in his 29 starts. Derek Holland is likely the number two man. He was Mr. Shutout last season with
4. His 3.95 ERA was the best of
his 3 year career and he won a team high 16 games. His BAA was a little high (262) as was his WHIP (1.35). He’s not an ace, but he has his
moments. If he can bring down that
WHIP and BAA then he should be a lock for 15 wins. If not, then he’ll need a lot of luck to keep that ERA under
4. Colby Lewis is also back after
regressing a bit from his 2010 numbers.
He pitched well, winning a career high 14 games and logging 200 IP for
the second straight year. However
he struck out far fewer (196 in 2010 and 169 in 2011) and hitters found the
ball better (227 BAA 2010 and 244 2011).
But 244 is still a good BAA and his WHIP of 1.21 was also solid. If he brings that ERA down (4.40), he
could challenge Derek Holland for the number 2 spot in this rotation. Next we find Matt Harrison who played
his best season ever. He went 14-9
with a 3.39 ERA. While all these
numbers look good for Texas, you wonder if they missed their windows with at
least 4 starters having the best seasons of their careers, and their secondary
numbers not always supporting them.
Exhibit C is Matt Harrison’s great ERA with a pedestrian 257 BAA. The year before his ERA was 4.71 so you
have to worry that some of these pitchers had years that were the exception,
rather than the rule. The 5th
starter of last year was Alexi Ogando, who is seemingly pitching for his job
this spring. In his second year in
the majors, and first as a starter, he was a tremendous 13-8 with a 3.51
ERA. This came after a 2010 season
that saw a 1.50 ERA in 44 relief appearances. He might be the best 5th starter in the game, and
he’s still improving. The depth to
this starting rotation is ridiculous.
Ogando looks like the real deal, and, in my opinion, shouldn’t be the
one to lose his job to Feliz. (He
may not be). Only his 1.14 WHIP
surpassed his 234 BAA. Neftali
Feliz is the guy trying to break into this group. He had his second All Star season as a closer in a row last
year with 32 Saves in 38 opportunities.
His 2.74 ERA was solid and his 194 BAA was silly. Those numbers are expected to rise as
he moves into a starting role, but he started in the minors and always had
ambitions on starting with the big league club. Having too many starters is always a nice problem, and I
think with injuries almost guaranteed in this game, we will see all 6 of these
guys start in 2012. This group of
starters will hand things off to one of the best and most under-used bullpens
in the league (4 of the starters had 185+ IP, and Alexi Ogando had 169 in only
25 starts). Joe Nathan was signed
to be the closer (though I doubt they’ll hesitate to use Feliz if Nathan
struggles since they have a wealth of starters). He hopes to return to his All Star form if healthy. And he is set up with two of the best
set up guys in baseball in Mike Adams and Koji Uehara. With those three and Scott Feldman and
the loser in the Ogando/Feliz/Harrison starter sweepstakes this bullpen again
looks to be stellar and give the Rangers some of the best pitching in the
AL. They may not have the ace to
beat your best guy. But in a 3
game series, chances are 2 of their 3 starters will be better than yours as
they have a wealth of number 2 or 3 caliber starters and a possible ace in Darvish. On a team where hitters are still
kings, these pitchers can make some noise.
2012 Prediction…The Rangers are still a great hitting team
in a great hitters park. They lost
an ace, but may have signed a new one.
And even if they didn’t, they have a wealth of quality pitchers who are
at least second or third starter caliber.
Other than C.J. Wilson, they haven’t lost much. And they hope to have replaced him with
Yu Darvish. That’s the good
news. The bad news is that the
Angels added Wilson to an already strong pitching staff and are have a stronger
rotation 1-3 for sure, possibly 1-4.
When your 5th starter is better than theirs, that’s not much
to boast about. The Rangers want
to think they still have better hitters, but the Angels also added Albert Pujols. They are a team with too many strong hitters,
as they will be looking to give Morales, Abreu, Wells, Hunter, Trout and Trumbo
playing time. The Rangers on the
other hand, have some depth with Cruz, Hamilton, Borbon ,Gentry and Murphy, but
two of those players have long injury histories and two others are very
young. If we call both offenses
equal (which is a question), you have to believe the Angels have more
depth. Add to that better starters
(though the Rangers have pretty good ones) and you are really only giving the
Rangers the better bullpen advantage for sure. In all, it boils down to a fun race to watch for the AL
West, but one I think the Angels will win. If the Rangers make the playoffs, it will likely be as a
wildcard, but they will have to play better than at lest two of the three
behemoths in the AL East. This
will be a tough year for the Rangers.
They will need their whole team to stay healthy and play like they did
last year if they want to see some playoff baseball.
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