It’s time for baseball.
I’m taking a quick look at each division and making some predictions
before the season really takes off.
I’ll start with the AL West.
A division thought to be between LA and Seattle last year instead saw
the Astros finally make good on their potential and the forgotten Rangers get
healthy and add an ace (that’s four words in a row that began with “a”) to make
a late season run to the division crown.
What will happen this year?
PRESSING QUESTIONS:
Texas Rangers- How good can this team be with Cole Hamels pitching for them
all season?
Houston Astros- Can this young team maintain the discipline to contend with
expectations heaped upon them, a very new element for this club?
Los Angeles Angels- Is the best player in the game enough
to carry this team and their questionable pitching staff?
Seattle Mariners- Will some new faces be enough for this
highly touted team from last year to make good on last off-season’s promise?
Oakland Athletics- Is there a plan in place? Or are they just treading water, doing the
best they can until their stadium situation gets ironed out?
PREDICTIONS:
Texas Rangers- 90-72 DIVISION WINNER
Houston Astros- 86-76
Los Angeles
Angels- 82-80
Seattle Mariners- 80-82
Oakland
Athletics- 68-94
Texas
Rangers
Projected Lineup/Pitching Staff
SS Elvis Andrus
RF Shin Soo Choo
3B Adrian Beltre
DH Prince Fielder
LF Ian Desmond
1B Mitch Moreland
2B Rougned Odor
C Robinson
Chirinos
CF Delino DeShields
LHP Cole Hamels
RHP Yu Darvish
LHP Derek Holland
LHP Martin Perez
RHP Colby Lewis
CLOSER Shawn Tolleson
For the Rangers, the key is health. Two years ago many picked them to win the
division, but they were torpedoed by injuries.
People forgot about them last year, and then they got healthy, added an
ace at the deadline and raced up to the top of the standings. I love them this year.
Hamels is a legitimate ace.
If Darvish and Holland are healthy (and if Darvish comes back early in
the season) then this is a very strong pitching staff. While the bullpen is a little muddled, they
do seem to have lots of good arms, which may help them if they end up with
closer issues. They are going with
Tolleson, but perhaps will let others earn some Saves from time to time.
Either way, they have a phenomenal offense, which will
always keep them competitive. Fielder is
still a legitimately fearful power bat that can hit over 300. Desmond, Moreland and Beltre can all chip in
20 HR. Andrus isn’t a traditional
leadoff man, but he provides some speed while Choo has a great OBP. One or two of them should get on base enough
to score a decent amount of runs. The defense doesn’t blow you away, but it
should be solid. I believe that if this
team is healthy, they will win a very close division.
Houston Astros
Projected Lineup/Pitching Staff
CF Carlos Gomez
2B Jose Altuve
SS Carlos Correa
DH Evan Gattis
RF George Springer
3B Luis Valbuena
LF Colby Rasmus
C Jason Castro
1B Tyler White
LHP Dallas Keuchel
RHP Colin McHugh
RHP Mike Fiers
RHP Scott Feldman
RHP Doug Fister
CLOSER Luke Gregerson
The Astros rebuild is over.
They finally cashed in on their potential and made the playoffs. They are young and talented. They can hit, run and field. But, they are dealing with something new this
year. They finally have to face
expectations. Houston kind of snuck up on everyone last season and contended a
year earlier than expected. But now,
people are ready for them and they will get the best that every team has to
offer. Additionally, they never lived up
to their hot start. They played better
down the stretch, but they had an insane first month that set them up for
success. But they didn’t win the
division and were slowing down as time went on.
I like this team, but I worry that their youth will be an additional
hurdle for them.
Altuve is a star that will hit over 300, steal at least 30
bases (probably closer to 40) and can probably score 85+ R. He also showed surprising pop with 15 HR last
year, which is why I dropped him down a spot to his second. Perhaps with Gomez on base in front of him,
he can see more fastballs and slug another 15 HR. Gomez is a great fielder who was in the
conversation for best center fielder in baseball a few years ago. He may not be there now, but he should hit
for plus AVG with double digit HR and SB.
The big question is: how good
will Carlos Correa be? A lot of people
have him as their MVP pick this year. I
think that’s a little overly ambitions, but I love his talent. I could see another 270+ season and a 20/20
campaign with close to 100 RBI and R.
There is a drop off after that, but Gattis can slug 30 HR and threaten
for 90+ RBI, Springer is always getting better and could be a 20/20 man,
Valbuena should surpass 20 HR again and Rasmus can at least slug 15 HR, if he
offers little else.
The pitching staff has a legitimate ace in Keuchel who can
win 20 games with 200+ IP and Ks. McHugh
and Fiers are strong arms behind him and I think Fister will surprise and come
close to being as dominant as he was in 2013 and 2014. Gregerson will transition nicely to the
closer’s role and Neshek, Giles, Sipp and Fields all have great bullpen
arms. This defense looks fantastic on
paper with 2 center fielders patrolling the outfield next to a very good right
fielder and a phenomenal double play combo.
I like this team a lot this year and think they have a good chance to
return to the postseason. But, upon review, I'll pick them as the first team to finish outside of October.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Projected Lineup/Pitching
Staff
3B Yunel
Escobar
RF Cole
Calhoun
CF Mike
Trout
1B Albert
Pujols
DH C.J.
Cron
C Geovany
Soto
LF Daniel
Nava
2B Johnny
Giovotella
SS Andrelton
Simmons
RHP Garrett
Richards
LHP Andrew
Heaney
RHP Jered
Weaver
LHP Hector
Santiago
RHP Matt
Shoemaker
CLOSER Huston
Street
There are lots of questions with this team. And it’s frustrating, because you see the
talent of Trout and think that this team should go for it all now. He is in his prime and is the best player in
baseball. Instead, he gets a little
protection from an aging Albert Pujols and nothing else. The team lacks a true leadoff hitter. They don’t have a true left fielder. And they look weak at second base and
catcher. Additionally, they didn’t really
address any of those concerns in the offseason.
They also have lots of pitching questions. Richards is a very good pitcher. Not one of the top aces, but I like his
stuff. Heaney has talent and good stuff,
but is largely unproven. I love Santiago
and think he gets consistently overlooked.
He’s not an ace, but I like him as a number 2 or a great number 3. But then the question marks come in. Jered Weaver has lost all of his
velocity. He is smart, but you can only
do so much pitching in the low 80s. And
Shoemaker is nothing more than a back of the rotation starter. The bullpen looks solid with Street, Smith
and Salas, but those are end of the game guys.
It’s the other names that don’t excite you, and with this starting
staff’s potential issues, those are the arms that will likely end up throwing
more innings than the Angels would like.
This offense should score runs, but they aren’t the Blue
Jays. Trout is great. Think 280+ with 30+ HR and over 100 RBI and
R. He wants to run more, but I don’t
think we will see another 40 SB season from him again. Stealing bases can lead to injuries,
especially with big guys. I’ll put my
ceiling for him at 20 and expect closer to 15.
Nobody else comes close to performing like him at the plate. Pujols had a great 40 HR/95 RBI season last
year. I’d expect more like 30 and 80
this year with a 250 AVG. Kole Calhoun
showed some power last year with 26 HR.
He can likely do that again, but offers a fairly pedestrian AVG and
little speed. There is nothing else after them.
They added Andrelton Simmons who is the best defender in baseball. But he plays short, which wasn’t a position
of need for them. The Braves got Aybar
back in return, but while the defense will be better, Aybar’s defense wasn’t
bad and he was a better hitter. Simmons
is still figuring it out on the plate and offers inconsistent power and little
speed. Escobar is being asked to be a
leadoff man based off what he did last season in Washington. He was very good, but it came out of
nowhere. I don’t know if he can repeat
it. I bet he will hit for at least 270,
but offers no speed and can be a clubhouse drain. Left field will be a platoon between Daniel
Nava and Craig Gentry, but neither is exiting.
Gentry is a speedster, but lacks the ability to get on base enough to
utilize that tool. With him in left,
this outfield defense should be great.
When it is Nava, it should still be solid. Simmons and Escobar may comprise the best
left side of the infield in baseball.
That will help this team go get it overall. And they will need to, because the pitching
staff has question marks. I think this
team will continue to sit around 500, which is not good enough to contend, but
also not good enough to reap draft picks and re-build. This is a team eternally stuck in purgatory
and likely not going anywhere else this year.
Seattle Mariners
Projected
Lineup/Pitching Staff
LF Nori
Aoki
3B Kyle
Seager
2B Robinson
Cano
DH Nelson
Cruz
1B Adam
Lind
C Chris
Ianetta
RF Seth
Smith
SS Ketel
Marte
CF Leonys
Martin
RHP Felix
Hernandez
RHP Hisashi
Iwakuma
LHP Wade
Miley
RHP Taijuan
Walker
RHP Nate
Karns
CLOSER Steve
Cishek
This team was expected to do good things last year. They did not.
They have not played well since signing Cano to that huge deal. I don’t think that has anything to do with
their issues, but the fact is the Mariners can’t seem to put it all
together. However, they went out and
hired Jerry DiPoto to be their GM and I love what he does.
I like his moves this offseason. He added another strong arm in Wade Miley and
re-signed Iwakuma. This pitching staff
looks to be strong. Hernandez is a
legitimate ace. Iwakuma has had a lot of
success in Seattle and I see no reason why that won’t continue. Miley struggled in Boston, but I think a
change in scenery will do him well. He
had some success in Arizona, so perhaps a smaller market will take some
expectations off of him. And moving to Seattle
helps any pitcher. All three of those
guys can reach 200 IP with King Felix threatening for 20 Wins and an ERA around
3. Iwakuma could be around 3.50 and I
wouldn’t be surprised if Miley was right at 4, or slightly under. Walker has great stuff but has to put it all
together. He will one day, but I don’t
know if it will happen this season. The
back end of the bullpen looks strong with Benoit leading to Cishek, but the
other arms are suspect. And Cishek isn’t
bulletproof because he struggled in Miami, which isn’t a bad place to pitch,
and lost his job as the closer. I think
he’ll be fine here, but that is something to be aware of. If the top of the rotation can eat up
innings, this pitching staff should be fine.
But pitching hasn’t been an issue is Seattle. It has been the offense. Cano is the offensive centerpiece. He is very good, but moving to Seattle has
affected his numbers. Not just because
Seattle is a harder place to hit, but also because the new Yankee stadium is a
ridiculous place to hit. But I think
Cano should approach 300 with 20-25 HR and perhaps 90 RBI, if the top of the
lineup can bet on base. And that is a
big if. Aoki isn’t a bad signing. But his speed has diminished and he never had
much power. He has a strong OBP, but
looks to be primarily a singles hitter without a ton of stolen base speed. I like him for 285 and a 350 OBP, but no more
than 15 SB and likely only 80-85 R. Kyle
Seager and Nelson Cruz primarily offer power.
Neither will hurt you in terms of AVG, but both are likely dealing with
a 270 ceiling. And Seager isn’t running
much anymore. Adam Lind is a nice
addition to extend the offense a bit, but I think moving to Seattle turns his
20 HR to 15. The rest of the team offers
little in the way of offense. The
defense looks solid with Leonys Martin locking down center, Cano and Seager
looking strong at second and third and enough talent everywhere else to keep
things in control. This may not be the
best defense in baseball, but it is solid.
This is a team that looked to do it all last year, but fell
short. They made some changes and hope
to bounce back this year. Lots of people
are picking them as dark horse candidates to come out of nowhere and
contend. And that’s possible. But I think there is too much talent in this
division for them to make a real run.
Perhaps they leap the Angles, but I still see them as a team that hovers
around 500.
Oakland Athletics
Projected
Lineup/Pitching Staff
CF Billy
Burns
2B Jed
Lowrie
LF Khris
Davis
RF Josh
Reddick
DH Billy
Butler
C Stephen
Vogt
1B Mark
Canha
3B Danny
Valencia
SS Marcus
Semien
RHP Sonny
Gray
LHP Rich
Hill
RHP Chris
Bassitt
RHP Kendall
Graveman
LHP Felix
Doubront
CLOSER Sean Dolittle
The A’s are in a tough spot.
They always have a plan, but have been hamstrung by their financial
situation for years. Billy Beane found
ways to contend despite that, but things seem to have gotten worse for the team
recently, forcing them to cut and run sooner than ever from talent. Additionally, other teams know they can’t
keep their studs, which is limiting the returns Oakland is getting back. The team wanted to move to San Jose, which
would free them up to be competitive again, but the Giants blocked that,
despite other teams seeming to be on board.
So Oakland is stuck wallowing in an old stadium in a market that doesn’t
support the team well enough to keep them competitive. I can’t claim to be an expert on the
situation, but from my understanding, the Giants are really forcing the A’s
into a corner and refuse to give up their territorial rights on an area that
arguably has more A’s fans and is not a stronghold for the Giants. What also hurts the A’s is that each year
that they struggle they lose more fans in that area, eventually making the
Giants claim, which was tenuous when they initially stopped the move, grow stronger
each year. It’s bad for baseball and
awful for Oakland, but it is where they are.
For that reason, nothing much can happen with this team. They have some young talent, but have to get
rid of it before it can mature fully because they can’t even afford arbitration
salaries for most of these guys.
The biggest question in Oakland, unfortunately, is how long
can they keep Sonny Gray. Gray is a
legitimate ace. He may not be a huge
strikeout guy, but I like him for 200 IP, 15 Wins and another sub 3 ERA. Things drop off after that. Rich Hill looked great in 4 starts with
Boston last year. But that is a tiny
sample size and he is a real unknown.
The other guys are young and also relative unknowns, beyond Felix
Doubront. However, Doubront is coming
off down seasons, and the fact that he made this rotation actually speaks to
the issues the A’s are facing. The good
news is they have a strong bullpen. If Doolittle is healthy, then I like it a
lot. He will start the year late, but
Ryan Madson and John Axford support him.
Neither is the ace closer they used to be, but both know how to pitch
and still possess enough stuff to be solid relievers.
The bigger issue is the offense. I love young Billy Burns. He had a great rookie season last year that
many missed because it happened in Oakland.
I like him for maybe 30 SB and an AVG north of 270. Khris Davis was a strong addition to bring
some power. But moving to Oakland from
Milwaukee will hurt him. Think 20 HR
this year, not 27. Billy Butler is likely
due for another 250/15 HR campaign.
Reddick and Vogt are likely in line for another 270/20 HR year. That’s it.
No stars here and little depth. I
don’t like the rest of the offense much and think this will be another long
year in Oakland. The defense even has
questions with Semien at short. The rest
of the team looks solid and the outfield looks strong defensively.
The problem for Oakland is that there is no end in
sight. The rest of their division got
better and they just have no path to improve in their financial situation. They draft and develop well, but have to cut
and run so quickly that they can’t build any momentum. I hope this changes for them soon because they
do a great job developing major leaguers.
But until they improve their finances, nothing can happen with this
team.
DIVISION MVP: Mike Trout. (Also wins the league MVP)
Hard to pick against the best player in baseball. Even with a subpar team around him, I like
Trout for 290 with 38 HR, 110 RBI, 95 R and 12 SB. I also think he gets on base at a 350 rate
and will win a Gold Glove. Another great
season, wasted by the Angels front office.
I did consider Jose Altuve here. And he is good enough that I think he is
worthy of mention. This guy has shown an
incredible ability to adapt on top of his prodigious talent. I think he is in for a big year. I’ll say 340 with 18 HR, 88 RBI, 104 R and 51
SB.
DIVISION CY YOUNG: Cole Hamels
This one was tough for a different reason. There were lots of good options. I love King Felix. Sonny Gray is really good. Keuchel won it last year and should be set up
for another good year. And Garrett
Richards is a guy to watch out for.
But I have to go with Hamels. Generally the Cy Young goes to a guy on a
playoff team. While I think that is a
dumb requirement (I know it’s not a real requirement it’s just something that a
lot of voters prefer), I think that will help separate Hamels. I’m thinking 15+
Wins with an ERA under 3.25 and over 200 IP and Ks. Don’t expect the ERA much lower, because
while Philly was hitter friendly, Texas is more hitter friendly and moving to
the AL and not getting to frequently face the Braves and Mets will hurt his
ERA.
The other guy I considered was Dallas Keuchel. He is another guy who could threaten 20 Wins
with 200 IP and Ks. But Hamels has more
strikeout inducing stuff, which will improve his overall chances. And I suspect Texas will win the division,
which makes him my division Cy Young.
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