Projected Division Finish
1.
Kansas City Royals
2.
Detroit Tigers
3.
Chicago White Sox
4.
Cleveland Indians
5.
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
2014 Finish: 89-73
(Second Place)
Projected Batting
Order
SS Alcides
Escobar
RF Alex Rios
CF Lorenzo Cain
1B Eric Hosmer
LF Alex Gordon
C Salvador
Perez
DH Kendrys
Morales
3B Mike Moustakas
2B Omar Infante
Projected Starting
Rotation/Closer
RHP Yordano
Ventura
LHP Danny
Duffy
RHP Edinson
Volquez
LHP Jason
Vargas
RHP Jeremy
Guthrie
CLOSER Greg
Holland
The 2014 Royals had quite a run. After a final push to make the playoffs as a
wildcard team, they dispatched the Oakland Athletics in one game and swept the
Angels and Orioles before heading to the World Series against the Giants. It was their first playoff appearance since
1985 and they took it deep into the 7th game of the World
Series. They were unable to come away
with the ultimate prize, but did not shrink away from the spotlight and made
quite a name for themselves.
They are built on speed, pitching and defense. If they can play like last year, they should
be in good shape. But they will have to
weather the loss of their ace, James Shields, the loss of Billy Butler and Nori
Aioki and also, for the first time in a long time, deal with expectations.
Offense/Defense:
The Royals were a specially designed offense. They were second in the league with a team
AVG of 263 and first in stolen bases with 153.
They manufactured runs and were good at it, with an 81% success rate on
the bases. But part of the reason they
were so good at it is because they had to be.
They were last in the league in HR and as a result were in the lower
half of the league in runs scored. They
lost arguably their best power bat in Billy Butler and are hoping Kendrys
Morales and Alex Rios can help offset that loss. It will always be exciting for the Royals
offense, but perhaps even more exciting than they want it to be at times.
Alcides Escobar will be the leadoff hitter for this club
after succeeding there at the end of the regular season and through the
playoffs last year. He hit 285 with 31
SB and 74 R. But that only came with on
OBP of 317. He rarely strikes out and
puts the ball in play well, but he doesn’t walk, doesn’t often work the count
and isn’t the ideal leadoff candidate.
But he is the best option the Royals have. If he’s successful in that spot, I would expect
another season around 280 with 30-35 SB and 75-80 R. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if the
pressure of hitting leadoff gets to him and he struggles.
I have former leadoff hitter, left fielder Alex Gordon,
hitting fifth this year. This is mainly
due to the fact that he is one of the few hitters on this club capable of
putting the ball over the fence. Gordon
hit 266 last year with 19 HR and 74 RBI.
He also contributed 12 SB and 87 R.
His 351 OBP is more in the mold of a leadoff guy, but they desperately
need his power so he’ll hit in a better RBI spot. I’ve heard some chatter about him hitting
second, and think he could do that well too.
He is such a versatile player he could leadoff, hit second, third or
fifth. I expect he’ll move around. He is likely not a 300 hitter batting in the
middle of the order, but could hit for higher AVG is he was higher up in the
lineup and the Royals needed him to. I
like him for 270 with 15 HR, 12 SB and 75 RBI.
If they move him up in the lineup, expect to see his RBI fall towards 60
while his R totals will climb towards 80.
Center fielder Lorenzo Cain had a great second half and
became the Royals number 3 hitter for the playoffs. Last year he hit 301 with 5 HR and 55
RBI. He’s not a power hitter, which
makes him a non-traditional choice to bat third. But with his ability to hit for AVG and drive
the ball into the gaps, the Royals like Cain in this spot. He is another good base runner, with 28 SB
last year. I like him for another year
of 25 SB, 285 AVG and perhaps 75 RBI/R.
Nowhere is the Royals’ lack of power more evident than with
first baseman Eric Hosmer. Despite a
strong showing of HRs in the minors, Hosmer has not shown the consistent
ability to put the ball over the fence in the major leagues. He hit 270 last year, but that came with 9 HR
and 58 RBI. It was his first season not
to hit double digit HRs. It’s something
the Royals really hope changes. If it
does, this offense will be significantly better. If not, things will be tight again in
KC. Think 270 with 13 HR and 70
RBI. He could also chip in 5-10 SBs.
Another underwhelming performer is third baseman Mike
Moustakas. He has the power the Royals
lack with 15 HR last year. But that came
with a 212 AVG. While the Royals do need
power, the fact that Moustakas doesn’t contribute anything else is a
problem. He is hot this spring and the
Royals hope that carries over. But I am
unsure. I’d expect another season of 15
HR with only modest improvement in AVG, perhaps around 225.
Catcher Salvador Perez hit 260 in 2014 with 17 HR and 70
RBI. He has seen his power totals climb
each year, but that’s come with a corresponding drop in AVG. He hit over 300 his first 2 seasons in the
majors before falling to 292 and then 260 last year. The power is good. It’s also very important on this team. And as long as he stays at least at 260, the
Royals will be happy with him. I see him
hitting 260 again this year, with perhaps 20 HR. But he could go the other way and see his AVG
inflate to 270 with maybe only 15 HR.
Second baseman Omar Infante is a very good complimentary
player who plays strong defense and does a little bit of everything. Injuries affected him at the plate and
dropped his AVG to 252. But he did chip
in 6 HR, 66 RBI, 50 R and 9 SB. He is
not a power threat and doesn’t have game changing speed. But he puts the ball in play and gives the
Royals good ABs. While I currently have
him hitting ninth, he can bat second if the need arises. I’d expect a return to the 275 region with 5
HR and 10 SB.
The two new offensive pieces on this team are Kendrys
Morales and Alex Rios. Morales is the
new DH and is likely a significant step down from Billy Butler. After rejecting the Mariners qualifying offer
he didn’t sign with a team until well into the season and he never got his
timing back. He hit a mere 218 with 8 HR
for the Mariners and Twins. He’s had
some recent success hitting over 270 in both 2012 and 2013 with over 20 HRs
both seasons. But he really struggled
last year after joining the Mariners late.
I see him as a major question mark this year and don’t know what to
expect from him.
Alex Rios could be an upgrade over Nori Aioki, but he has to
bounce back from a subpar year in Texas last season. When a guy in his mid-thirties has a down
year, you start to worry. But even his
“down year” wasn’t that bad, especially when you consider all the nagging
injuries he played through. He hit 280
with 17 SB. The down part was his power
as he only hit 4 HR. But even if he
doesn’t hit for power, he can still hit for AVG and steal bases. He hit 18 HRs in 2013 and 25 in 2012. I think he’ll see some of the power come back
and continue to hit around 280 as his career mark is 278. If his power doesn’t come back, he may move
up to the second spot in the order to utilize his speed and experience, not to
mention his ability to hit for AVG. I’ll
put him down for 270 with 10 HR, 15 SB and either 70 RBI or R, depending on
where he hits in the order.
That’s the offense.
Jarred Dyson is around as the fourth outfielder and is one of the
fastest guys in the majors. He stole 36
bases in 120 games. In many of those
games he was a defensive replacement or pinch runner. I can see him doing more of the same, subbing
in for Alex Rios late in games (actually he’ll go to center and move Lorenzo
Cain to right) and maybe getting an AB or two.
Put him down for 20-30 SB again.
Eric Kratz is a backup catcher who won’t add much besides defense.
This offense doesn’t have a lot of pop. But it has potential, speed and good contact
ability. If they want to be successful,
I think Escobar has to be a good leadoff man.
The rest falls into place from there, as Gordon, Rios or Infante can hit
second ahead of Cain and Hosmer in the 3 and 4 holes. But this offense will have to get on base and
manufacture runs to be successful. And
that’s tough to do consistently.
The good news is the defense is great. Escobar and Hosmer are great at short and
first respectively. Infante is a plus
defender at second and Moustakas is better than average at third. In the outfield, Alex Gordon is the best
defensive left fielder in the game and Lorenzo Cain is great in center. Alex Rios still plays well in right, though
he’s lost a step. Jarred Dyson is also
strong in center, which allows to Cain to move to right late in games for Rios
if necessary. Salvador Perez is a Gold
Glove winner behind the plate.
Pitching:
The Royals pitching was the key to their success last
year. They had a 3.51 team ERA, fourth
in the league. They also had one of the
best bullpens in the league. The Royals
were 65-4 when leading after 6 innings, and all the pieces of their bullpen are
back for the 2015 season.
With James Shields gone, the Royals are hoping that Yordano
Ventura can step up to be their new ace.
Ventura went 14-10 last year with a 3.20 ERA in 183 IP. He’s got crazy velocity and ranked in the Top
10 with a 23.6% swing and miss rate. But he wasn’t a big strikeout guy last
year and needs to cut down on the walks.
He’s got great stuff, but isn’t quite at ace level with a 1.30 WHIP and
240 BAA. Not bad numbers at all,
especially for a young pitcher. But
being the ace of this staff may be a lot for him to handle. I think he’ll have a similar season with
12-15 wins, an ERA under 3.50 and perhaps 175 Ks in 200 IP.
I put lefty Dany Duffy down as the number 2 man in this
rotation based on stuff alone. He went
9-12 last year, but had a sparkling 2.53 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and 209 BAA. Like Ventura, he’s not a big strikeout
guy. But unlike Ventura, he does not put
guys on base and beat himself. He’s got
a fastball in the low to mid 90s that doesn’t move a lot. So he takes hitters off it by making liberal
use of his curve and change. As long as
he continues to pitch to contact, I think he could have a better year than Ventura
with an ERA around 3, double-digit wins and 150 Ks in 200 IP.
New acquisition Edinson Volquez has been brought in to help
offset the loss of James Shields. He is
not the same caliber of pitcher, but has played well in the past, including
last year. Volquez went 13-7 with a 3.04
ERA for the Pirates last year. But the
year before he struggled greatly in a split season with the Padres and
Dodgers. He’s got a career 4.44 ERA and
was lucky last season with a very low BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Additionally, his K/9 rate dropped to a
career low, which is never a good sign on an older pitcher. Frankly, I think the best-case scenario for
Volquez is that he ends up being an innings eater, getting to 200 IP with a
competitive ERA around 4. But I suspect
a tough season for Volquez with a losing record, 4.25 ERA and a regression to
his mean.
Veterans Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Vargas make up the back
end of the rotation. Vargas will likely
get the fourth spot in the rotation after going 11-10 with a 3.71 ERA last
season. He’s a fly ball pitcher who
doesn’t have great velocity and uses location to get by. He throws good breaking stuff, but gets in
trouble leaving the ball up, especially on the road. Both his WHIP and BAA were a little high, mainly
due to guys getting hits. The defense
usually bails him out, but he’s not a guy you can count on to do much more than
eat innings and pitch to an ERA around 4.
Guthrie will be the 5th starter, who may pitch
more than the average 5th starter.
I say that because there are questions about Duffy being a fulltime
starter (I don’t know why) and Ventura’s frame standing up to a full season of
pitching. At this point in his career,
Guthrie is an innings hitter who pitches to an ERA around 4. Last year his ERA was 4.13 and the year
before it was 4.04. In 5 of the last 6
seasons he’s reached 200 innings and he gets by with so-so stuff. Guthrie will be competitive and keep the
Royals in games, which is more than many other 5th starters can do.
The real stars of this pitching staff reside in the
bullpen. Greg Holland is on the short
list for best closer in the game. For my
money he’s number 2 behind Craig Kimbrel.
That makes him the best in the AL and he played like it last year. He went 46 for 48 in Save opps with a 1.44
ERA and 90 Ks in 62 IP. He is truly
filthy with a 0.91 WHIP and 170 BAA.
There is no question in my mind that he will be great again with 40+
Saves and an ERA under 2.
But it’s not just a great closer that makes the Royals
fantastic. It’s their two setup men,
Wade Davis and Kelvin Hererra. Davis is
a former starter who has excelled in a setup role for the Royals. He locked down the 8th inning with
33 Holds last year and 109 Ks in 72 IP.
His 1.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 151 BAA show him to be just as dominant as
Holland. And Hererra locks down the 7th
with his AVG fastball of 96.4 MPH (Holland is 95.9 and Davis is 95.6). He had 20 Holds and a 1.41 ERA last year with
fewer Ks, but a great 214 BAA and solid 1.14 WHIP.
The rest of the bullpen features talented young arms
including Brandon Finnegan and solid veterans like Jason Frasor. If you only have to win the first 6 innings,
baseball gets a lot easier. And that’s
the enviable position the Royals find themselves in.
The good news for the Royals is that their All Star bullpen
stayed together and hasn’t cost them any money.
The bad news is that the same can’t be said about their rotation. In today’s MLB, mid market teams like the
Royals have to make decisions about players based on economics more than what’s
best for the on-field product. Many of
these teams draft and develop well, only to see their stars go to major market
teams loaded with dough but short on drafting on development abilities. It’s a shame and probably is something that
should be looked at, but won’t be because the business of baseball does better
when the major market teams are good.
For those reasons, the Royals were forced to let James Shields walk and
replace him with Edinson Volquez. Shields
was more than just a great player on the mound, he was an incredible
locker-room presence who brought a winning attitude to K.C. While their pitching staff still looks good,
there is no way it will be as good without Shields.
Prediction:
The AL Central is a funny division. People talk a lot about how competitive it
is, which leads to the assumption that everyone keeps getting better. But I think that is misleading. I think a better way to look at it would be
the middle teams got better while the top teams got worse. Some people see this as a division where 4 of
the 5 teams could take home the divisional crown. I only see 3 viable division winners (sorry
Cleveland), but I understand the sentiment.
The Royals are definitely one of those teams.
Last year, they turned a hot second half into a wildcard
berth, 8-0 AL postseason run and fight to Game 7 of the World Series. Were they the best team in this division last
year? No I don’t think so. Are they better this year? Again, I think the answer is no. Detroit is still a major force and Chicago
got better. But I think Chicago’s
improvement only took them into the realm of being as good as Detroit and
Kansas City. And while K.C. got a little
worse, I think the Tigers did too. The Tigers
may be a little better, but I think pitching wins championships, so I’m picking
the Royals to win 92 games and take home the division title this year,
finishing in first in the AL Central.
No comments:
Post a Comment