Each year, the BBA (Baseball Bloggers Alliance) votes on the
Hall of Fame ballot. Last season was my
first time to vote in the election, and I took the time to hash out some of my
thoughts about the HoF, the voting and the process I use to vote players in. It was one of my biggest posts, and you can
find part 1 here and part 2 here.
For those who want to just skip to the end of those links,
or don’t feel like clicking on them, I can tell you that I voted for Jeff
Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Dale Murphy and Jack Morris.
So for this season, I considered the 36 candidates on the
ballot with the same ideas that I used last time. I looked for the magic numbers (500 HR, 300
Wins, 3,000 Hits). I looked for players
who came close to those numbers and won a ton of awards in their time. I considered players who played in the
steroid era who had good numbers, but not magic ones, and never were implicated
in PED usage. I considered players with
great stats in 1 or two categories, but not much else. I considered compilers. I looked for a lot of things. If I had any question about a player, they
did not get my vote, as they would have another chance the next year (most of
them). Another year of consideration for
individual players is preferable to a hasty pick being made, that can’t be
undone.
In addition to considering my ballot, I also considered the
voting process and how the hall works. I
tried to think about things I would change or patterns. I’ve come to a few conclusions, which I will
also detail in this post.
So let’s get right into it, starting with the voting
process.
Last year, people were outraged that no one made the Hall of
Fame. That led to a look at who was
voting and the overall voting process.
The people allowed to vote for Hall of Famers are members of the
Baseball Writers Association of America who have been in the BBWAA for at least
10 years. They have to have been active
members of the BBWAA for 10 years prior to the date of their first vote. That means no players, coaches, executives or
other Hall of Famers are eligible to vote for the new batch of Hall of
Famers. The argument against players
voting is that they would be too open to teammates and people who played in
their eras, as opposed to others who didn’t.
The argument against coaches and executives is that they would give too
much consideration to their former players.
All are valid considerations, though perhaps somewhat unfair. However no concern is expressed about writers
who have covered a certain team for 10 years being perhaps more lenient to guys
on the team they spent their careers covering.
I’m not saying that I think former players, coaches and executives
SHOULD be able to vote, but the reason against them voting doesn’t seem to hold
up when you consider any partiality from the writers. And that’s not just a guy who covers the
Astros being more likely to vote for Bagwell and Biggio, but also a guy who
covers the Yankees not voting for as many Red Sox, or Cardinals writers who
didn’t think much of Andre Dawson. However
as I don’t have a good answer for this one, I think I’ll table it for now.
What I don’t like is the fact that the Hall vote is
anonymous. By allowing guys to hide
behind their votes, they can safely exercise biases without fear of public
reproach. I don’t think there is any
reason that the vote has to be anonymous.
Right now, each voter can vote for whomever they wish, without having to
explain it. And, in a situation like
last year, each and every voter can express shock and outrage that no one made
it into the hall, but no person can be held responsible since we don’t know who
voted for whom.
One lady who covered the Dodgers for 10 years was famous for
acknowledging that she voted for Shawn Green, but not Mike Piazza. There was an individual out there that voted
for Aaron Sele. However players like
Craig Biggio and Jack Morris fell short of the votes needed to get in. My issue isn’t with players not getting into
the Hall, because last year’s class wasn’t great. My issue is that someone voted for Aaron Sele
and we don’t know whom. And they will
get to vote again this year. I like
that you don’t have to vote for anyone.
The rules state that you can vote for as few as 0 or as many as 10. I don’t like the cap on the max you can vote
for either, but voting in too many people has never been an issue. So if I could make one change to the Hall
vote, it would be taking the anonymity out of the process, making it public and
making people defend their votes. That
way people would perhaps put more thought into their votes, and anyone who votes
for Aaron Sele wouldn’t be allowed to vote again.
After a player’s first season on the ballot they need to get
5% of the votes to make it back to the ballot a second year. 19 of the 37 players on last year’s ballot
didn’t return this season after they failed to garner 5% of votes. Add to that Dale Murphy, who in his 15th
and final season on the ballot garnered 106 votes, good enough for 18.6% and a
4.1% increase over the previous years.
You only get 15 tries, so he’s out as well (despite my vote….which
doesn’t count for the actual Hall of Fame btw, just the Baseball Bloggers
Alliance) making 20 of 37 candidates fall off the ballot. This year we will see most of the guys on the
ballot fall short of getting the 5% necessary plus Jack Morris will be gone
after this season as he will either make the Hall or lose his eligibility. So the system works well for the most
part. The only change I would make
today, is to take the anonymity out of the voting process.
Now to this year’s ballot.
The easiest part is eliminating about 80% of the players
listed. The ones I eliminated off the
bat were:
Armando Benitez, Sean Casey, Ray Durham, Eric Gagne, Jacque
Jones, Todd Jones, Paul Lo Duca, Hideo Nomo, Kenny Rogers, Richie Sexson, J.T.
Snow and Mike Timlin.
There were some fine players in there, but none that really
even considered any HoF merit.
Then there were the noteworthy players who were easily NOs
in my book, but still had very good careers.
They were as follows:
Moises Alou: 303/332
HR, 1,287 RBI/1,109 R/106 SB….he had 2 Silver Sluggers and 2 Top 5 MVP finishes
not to mention finishing second in the Rookie of the Year Voting in 1992; won a
world series and had a long career; lost 2 seasons due to injury but always hit
above 300….great player, but not a Hall of Famer in my book
Luis Gonzalez:
283/354 HR/1,439 RBI/1,412 R/128 SB…won a Silver Slugger and had 1 Top 5
MVP finish….won a World Series and led the league in hits one year…great player
but not a Hall of Famer
Jeff Kent: 290/377
HR/ 1,518 RBI/1,320 R/94 SB….won an MVP and finished in the Top 10 4 times, won
2 Silver Sluggers….one of the best offensive second basemen of all time, but
still not a Hall of Famer
Edgar Martinez:
312/309 HR/1,261 RBI/1,219 R….won 5 Silver Sluggers and had 2 Top 10 MVP
finishes (1 Top 5)….won 2 batting titles, led the league in RBI and R once (not
the same year), led the league in doubles twice and on base percentage 3
times….the best overall offensive player on this list so far, but being a DH
hurt him not only in this vote, but also in awards, where he didn’t win
many....I don’t think I could vote for a DH…at least not right now
Don Mattingly:
307/222 HR/ 1,099 RBI/1,007 R…won an MVP and had 2 more Top 5 finishes…3
Silver Sluggers and 9 Gold Gloves….a great player for a bad team….but not quite
Hall of Fame worthy in my book
Tim Raines: 294/170
HR/980 RBI/1,571 R/808 SB…came closer to voting for Raines than anyone else…3
top 10 MVP finishes (1 Top 5), 1 Silver Slugger, career average was impressive
as were the 2600+ hits, but he played 23 years and seems like a complier…..his
SB numbers are what merit his consideration, but almost all of those came early
in his career….was truly one of the best base stealers of all time with an 85%
career mark (84.6 to be exact)….won a batting title and led the league in
steals 3 times, including stealing 90 bases in 1983 and had 6 seasons with over
70 steals….but despite being one of the best base stealers of all time, he had
no power, was a corner outfielder and wasn’t great in the field…great base
stealer with a good career AVG, but a bit of a compiler
Lee Smith: 478
Saves/3.03 ERA….had an average WHIP (1.26) and subpar career BAA (288)….led the
league in Saves 4 times, but never really excelled anywhere else…got surpassed
by other far superior closers after holding the all times Saves record for a
while
Alan Trammell: 285/185
HR/1,003 RBI/1,231 R/236 SB…great player, one of the best offensive shortstops
of all time….like Jeff Kent, compared to others in his position he is great….4
Gold Gloves and 3 Silver Sluggers…3 Top 10 MVP finishes (1 Top 5)…never led
league in anything or reached any magic numbers…very good player, especially
for a shortstop….not a Hall of Famer
Larry Walker: 313/383
HR/1,311 RBI/1,355 R/230 SB….won an MVP and had 2 other Top 5 finishes (4 Top
10)….3 Silver Sluggers and 7 Gold Gloves….played the majority of his career in
Colorado, which inflates all hitters numbers….won 3 batting titles and led the
league in HR once….great 5 tool player but not a Hall of Famer as he never hit
the magic numbers, even in the greatest hitter’s park of all time
There were players who were PED users that I dismissed right
away. It’s easy to take a hard stance
and say that no PED users should ever get in.
I’m not sure that I feel that way, but I have no issues with someone who
does. However I think it is naïve to
think that will happen, as inevitably someone will be enshrined and, after the
fact, we will find out that they took PEDs.
So while I’m still on the fence about PED users (more about that below)
until I figure something out I won’t vote for any that I know of. However, I definitely would never NOT vote
for someone who played in the era if there is no proof of him taking PEDs, or
at least no serious discussion about it.
I think that’s incredibly unfair as well, and if I vote for someone who
later turns out to be a PED user, then I’m okay with it. The PED users on the ballot for me that I
immediately dismissed were as follows:
Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa.
There is another group of PED users that I don’t think
enough people consider. And that’s the
individual who was going to be a Hall of Famer BEFORE they took PEDs. It’s easy to say that taking them undid all
the good of the beginning of their career, but that’s also kind of naïve as
well, in my opinion. Those individuals
are as follows:
Barry Bonds: Holds the
all time records for HR (762) BBs (2,558) and IBBs (intentional walks
688). He’s also a career 298 hitter with
1,996 RBI and 2,227 R. He’s the only member of the 500/500 club off
the strength of his his HR and 514 SB.
That being said, we know he took steroids. He’ll argue he never knowingly took them, but
he took them all the same. But he didn’t
start taking them until 1999. Before
that he had already won 3 of his 7 MVPs (with 4 more top 5 finishes) all 8 of
his Gold Gloves and 7 of his 12 Silver Sluggers. He scored over 100 R in a season 7 times
(leading the league one year), led the league in HR once (with 46 in 1993) and
RBI once (123 also in 1993). He stole 52
bases one year and over 40 two other years.
He was a 6 time 20/20 player and a 2 time 30/30 player. And he led the league in walks 5 times before
1999. Assuming his career ended in 1999,
we may already be looking at a Hall of Famer.
Barry Bonds was the best offensive player in baseball, but the long ball
was what got all the attention. That’s
what he wanted and that’s what he went after.
He would have been a Hall of Famer, but he chased the title of best
offensive player in the game. And he
came close, but at a cost.
Roger Clemens:
Clemens is another of the greatest players of our era. And that was before he started taking
PEDs. It is widely believed that started
taking them in 1998. Prior to that, he
had five 20 win seasons, 5 Cy Youngs, 6 ERA titles, 1 MVP and he led the league
in Ks 5 times. Prior to that 1998
season,, he already had over 200 Wins.
He had a record that favorably compared with the career numbers of two
fringe Hall of Famers (Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling), but his ERA and K
numbers were far superior as were his award totals. He was much more dominating and was an easy
Hall of Famer before he took PEDs.
They are both still NOs in my book, but I think deserve some
separation from others who only came close to HoF level performances because of
the PEDs they took. I’m not sure about
what to do with PED users because a hard stance leaves off some of the greatest
players of our generation. And while
people have been okay with that in the past (Pete Rose), I’m not sure I like
that idea. But, again, until I figure it
out, I’m not voting for those people.
That leads us to the last two groups. The YES group and the MAYBE group. And that’s what I’ll break down first,
starting with the MAYBES.
Fred McGriff:
McGriff, the Crime Dog, had an impressive career. He was a 284 hitter with 493 HR, 1,550 RBI,
1,349 R and a 509 slugging percentage.
Those are fantastic numbers. He
was 7 HR shy of the 500 HR threshold, one of the magic numbers. However that number has lost meaning with PED
users breaking it with impunity. So this
is a classic situation of a player who had a good career and didn’t take PEDs
seeing his numbers’ luster pale in comparison to guys who took drugs to rack up
homers. I like McGriff. He was huge in the Braves winning the World
Series in 1995. And his career 284 AVG
shows he was more than just a slugger.
However, he also played for a long 19 years, which enabled him to
compile some impressive stats. He did
lead the league in HR twice (89 and 92) but never hit more than 36 HR in those
years. His career high in a single
season was 37 HR. He won 3 Silver Sluggers and was a 5 Time All Star. But his defense was not great. And while he had 6 Top 10 MVP finishes, only
1 was inside the top 5 (4th in 1993). He was a good player who played for a while,
but never was the best guy. In fact, at
a stacked position like first base, he was rarely in the top 5 players at his
position as he played with guys like Frank Thomas, Mo Vaughn, Mark McGwire and
Rafael Palmeiro. So for me, the question
is did McGriff compile stats in a long career or was he a great player that was
overshadowed by those who took PEDs and played with him.
Mike Mussina: Mussina’s
numbers are incredibly impressive. He
went 270-153 in 536 starts. In 3,562 IP,
he struck out 2,813 hitters and gave up 3,640 hits and 814 BBs (29
intentional). He averaged 7 Ks and 1
walk per 9, but also 10 hits per 9. His
WHIP was 1.19 but his BAA was 255. He
didn’t win any Cy Youngs, but finished in the top 5 of Cy Young voting 6 times
(9 Top 10 finishes). He also won 7 Gold
Gloves (including one in his final season) and was a 5 time All Star. This is another instance of a great player
with great stats, but also one who played a long time (18 years). He, like McGriff, didn’t win a lot of awards
and was never really considered the best pitcher in his era. He came closer to a Cy Young than McGriff did
to an MVP finishing second in 1999 (Pedro Martinez won that year). He was never clearly the best pitcher in any
category. He led the league in wins and
shutouts in 1995 with 19 and 4 respectively.
He led the league in IP once and games started twice. He was clearly a good player who had good
stats. So, like McGriff I have to decide
if he was a complier and a lack of awards shows that he was good but never
truly great, or a player who was always great, but played with PED users that
made his numbers look lesser in comparison.
That was the maybe group.
The last group was small. It’s
the first ballot guys who got definite YES votes from me.:
Greg Maddux: Easiest
vote for me. Could challenge Tom Seaver
for highest ballot percentage to get into the Hall. 354 Wins.
3.16 ERA. 3,371 Ks in 5,008
IP. He won 4 Cy Youngs and finsished in
the top five of Cy Young voting 5 more times.
He won 18 Gold Gloves and was a 8 time All Star. He finished in the Top 5 of the MVP voting
twice. He was one of the best pitchers
of all time, and he did it with finesse, not power. May have had the best command in history.
Tom Glavine: Another
easy vote. 305 wins, 3.54 ERA, 2,607 Ks in 4,413 IP. He won 2 Cy Youngs and finished in the top 54
more times. He was a 10 time All Star
with 4 Silver Sluggers. Like Maddux, was
a finesse pitcher with great command.
Was a star pitcher in a great era for hitters.
Frank Thomas: The Big
Hurt was a fixture at first a long time before he became a DH. He hit 301 with 521 HR, 1,704 RBI and 1,494
R. He won 2 MVPs with 4 other top 5
finishes (3 more top 10). He was a 5
time All Star and won 4 Silver Sluggers.
He was a great hitter in an era of some of the best hitters.
Taking those guys from this years ballot, and the three guys
that I voted for last year (Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio and Jack Morris) I have
a total of 6, not counting the maybes.
That’s not bad.
I’m still on the fence about Curt Schilling and Mike
Piazza. They were maybes for me last
year, and will be maybes again this year.
They have time, and when I’m sure, I’ll put them in. But once they are in, they are in. So I want to be sure. Keeping that in mind, I’ll reserve my vote
for Mussina and McGriff until I’m sure also.
No rush to get them in there. My
only concern would be seeing a player like them fall off the list after not
getting 5% of the vote. But if a player
falls off the ballot, then I guess it’s clear that they weren’t worthy.
So, my final ballot included votes for the following players
this year:
Jeff Bagwell
Craig Biggio
Tom Glavine
Greg Maddux
Jack Morris
Frank Thomas
Let me know your thoughts.
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