The 2012 season is off and running. At this early point in the season, I
think a look at the standings shows us some surprises and some things we expected. So let’s see how the AL teams are shaping up after the
first month of the season.
AL EAST
Baltimore Orioles: The
Orioles may be the surprise success story of the season at 19-9 and first in
the AL East. Buck Showalter had
them winning games when he took over, but that success didn’t translate over a
full season in 2011. But his
hitters are young and talented, and he’s finally getting good production from
his young pitchers. I always
thought that if these young guys could learn to pitch at an average to slightly
above average level the Orioles would have the offense to compete. They are proving that to be the case,
even with slugger Mark Reynolds struggling and homerless after the first month
of the season. But Adam Jones is
hitting well and showing plus power so far this season, and Matt Wieters has found
his power stroke leading the team in HR and RBI. Chris Davis is also playing well and they are supporting a
solid pitching staff led by Jason Hammel’s 3 Wins and 1.97 ERA. I don’t know if they can keep up this
level of production, but even a drop in pitching production could be offset if
the rest of their hitters catch up a bit.
The Orioles are off to a strong start and this April has shown what this
talented young team is capable of.
Tampa Bay Rays: At
19-10, the Rays have one of the best records in baseball and an incredible
pitching staff leading them. The
big surprise is that their offense is clicking so far this season, though the
loss of Evan Longoria to the DL is going to hurt them. But Carlos Pena has returned and not
missed a beat, and Matt Joyce, Jeff Keppinger and even B.J. Upton are off to
good starts. The only thing the
Rays aren’t doing is selling tickets, but that’s nothing new. I picked them to make it to the
playoffs in one of the wildcard slots this year, and over a month into the
season they are playing well and leading the toughest division in baseball.
Toronto Blue Jays: The
Blue Jays have long been one of the most underrated teams in the major leagues
in my opinion. They play the best
teams in the toughest division in baseball. And they are still able to at least turn in 500 ball, while
excelling against opponents from other divisions. I love the Blue Jays and what Adam Anthopoulos and John
Farell have put together there.
They built a strong offensive core and then Farell was able to help
those young pitchers reach their potential. This is a dangerous club that no one wants to face. Jose Bautista is the best slugger in
baseball right now, their middle infield of Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar is
multi-talented and has experience playing in the field together, Brett Lawrie
is a talented young stud and they have an outfield with tons of potential in
Rajai Davis, Colby Rasmus and Eric Thames. Not only is this team good, but also they are young and have
plenty of players reaching their primes.
I think they will continue to play well this season, and while they may
not reach the playoffs this year, their time isn’t far off, and we could start
seeing playoff baseball in Canada as soon as 2013.
New York Yankees: At
15-13 the Yankees aren’t having the kind of start they envisioned. Tex is struggling, Cano is struggling
and they won’t be getting anything out of Michael Pineda this season, or
possibly ever. (Though I think
he’s young enough to bounce back from his surgery and has had so little mileage
on that arm that he can build it back up and pitch effectively again
soon). Freddy Garcia is moving to
the bullpen with his issues, and with the saddest news of the year Mariano
Rivera tore a knee ligament in BP and will miss the rest of the season, and
possibly be done forever. But they
have Petite coming up, Sabathia, Nova and Hughes are healthy and Jeter is
playing fantastic baseball right now.
I think they will get things back on track and move up in the
standings. They are too talented
to do otherwise, and as sad as the loss of Mo is, they have two capable options
to take his spot in Rafael Soriano and David Robertson. Tex is always slow, but his power
numbers will be there, and hopefully his AVG as well. Swisher is playing well, Cano will turn it around and the Yankees
will be back in the division hunt by the All Star Break.
Boston Red Sox: And
in last place we have one of the biggest disappointments of the season. The Boston Red Sox are 11-16, 7.5 games
back of first and 3.5 games back of the Yankees in 4th place. Visions of that September collapse are
still haunting them and Bobby V isn’t making himself any friends in a volatile
Red Sox clubhouse or with a frustrated fan base. Their pitching has been atrocious with Josh Beckett’s 4.45
the best among the starters. The
bullpen has been even worse with big free agent Mark Melancon the owner of a
49.50 ERA and Andrew Bailey done for the year. Kevin Youkilis is hurting and off to a bad start, Carl
Crawford isn’t anywhere near coming off the DL and Jacoby Ellsbury went down
with an injury early on. Other
than David Ortiz, these Red Sox aren’t really producing. And it’s hard to imagine them
threatening for a division title with Mike Aviles leading off, Nick Punto
playing every day and Cody Ross hitting 5th. The Red Sox were supposed to have
better pitchers than the Yankees and better hitters than the Rays. That would put them in the running for
a top 3 spot in this division.
Instead they are last behind both of those teams, the shockingly good
Orioles and the not-so-shockingly good Jays. Their starters need to make some improvements, their bullpen
needs to make massive improvements, and they need to get healthy. It’s too early to say they are finished
as they were one of the best teams in baseball from May to August last
year. But after the way last
season ended (and started), this is not how they scripted their first
month.
AL CENTRAL
Cleveland Indians: This
is another big surprise for the beginning of the 2012 season. Many considered the Indians the second
best team in the Central Division, but still light years behind the mighty
Tigers. But, similar to last year,
the Indians are off to a hot start and playing well in April. On the mound Derek Lowe, is the leader
with a 4-1 record in 6 games and a 2.39 ERA. The numbers likely won’t stay there as hitters are hitting
295 against him and his 1.49 WHIP isn’t very good. But he’s been able to avoid giving up runs as he leads the
Indians in IP, ERA and Wins. The other surprise success on the mound is young Jeanmar
Gomez, who sports a 2-1 record in 4 starts with a 2.82 ERA. If Ubaldo Jiminez and Justin Masterson
can turn things around this pitching staff gets very formidable. And the Indian offense is making some
noise as well. Asdrubal Cabrera is
following up an All Star 2011 campaign with a strong start this season hitting
333 with 3 HR and 9 RBI. Carlos
Santana and Travis Hafner are slugging well and Jason Kipnis is also turning in
a strong start. If Shin Soo Choo
and Grady Sizemore can contribute, then this team will stay in the running for
the division all year.
Detroit Tigers: The
Tigers were supposed to run away with this division. But at 14-13 they are in second, 2 games back of the
Indians. That’s not bad, but based
on the expectations heaped upon them, nowhere near where they should be to
start the season. Their hitters
are playing well. Miguel Cabrera
is hitting 290 and leading the team with 7 HR and 22 RBI. Fielder is playing well, though he only
has 3 HR so far. And Austin
Jackson is off to a great start leading off for Detroit, hitting 303 with 4 SB
and 18 R. But it’s their pitching
that has failed them so far. No
pitcher has more than 2 Wins on this club. Verlander isn’t pitching badly at 2-1 with a 2.38 ERA. But he only has 2 Wins in 6 starts, and
one of those came off a Complete Game.
Fister got hurt in the 4th inning of his first game and the
other 3 starters (Porcello, Wilk and Scherzer) have ERAs of 5.64 and up. Jose Valverde has blown 2 Saves and
sports a 6.17 ERA and there are 4 guys in the Tiger bullpen with ERAs north of
8. This team is too good to play
like this. Their offense is
fantastic, and they have some great pitchers. Verlander will start winning more games, because you have to
get wins when you pitch like he does (0.86 WHIP, 184 BAA and 42 Ks in 45
IP). Fister should get healthy and
the other starters will turn it around.
I still think they will win the division, but they need to get moving in
the right direction.
Chicago White Sox: The
White Sox are 13-16, 4 games back of first. This is pretty much where we expected them to be. They are somewhere between contending
and re-building, but no one expected them to be running away with the division,
and they certainly are not. Dunn
has found his power stroke and leads the team with 9 HR and 23 RBI, after
hitting only 11 HR last season.
Paul Konerko continues to defy the Gods of Time with a 347 AVG, 6 HR and
17 RBI. Alex Rios is hitting 276
and Pierzynski has a 278 AVG with 5 HR.
They aren’t the Rangers, but they are okay with the bats, finishing
towards the middle (17th) in both team AVG and R. The one area where the Sox seem to be
overachieving is in the starting pitching department. Former Cy Young Winner Jake Peavy, who has been written off
by many in the baseball world as all but done, leads the staff. He’s 3-1 in 6 games with a 1.99 ERA, a
team leading 39 Ks and 2 Complete Games and 1 Shutout. Chicago was hoping he could be their
ace ever since they traded for him, and they may finally be getting some of
what they hoped for now that he’s healthy. I don’t know that he can keep it up, but a 0.75 WHIP and 171
BAA seems to support the idea that he’s found a way to be dominant again. After Peavy, Gavin Floyd has a 3.03 ERA
with a 0.96 WHIP and 191 BAA in his 6 starts, Chris Sale has a 2.81 ERA in his
5 starts (1.00 WHIP and 205 BAA), and Philip Humber has a solid 4.62 ERA to go
along with a perfect game. 4 of
their 5 starters are playing very well, and with better offensive support, this
group of talented starters could be leading this division. And their bullpen is solid with the
closer by committee ending in Hector Santiago getting the 9th inning
job and 5 pitchers with an ERA under 3 in that pen. The White Sox are a solid team. They likely won’t win the division, and their pitchers are
unlikely to keep this up. But if
they do, this is a team that might try to make some offensive moves at the
deadline to make a run in this division that doesn’t have a lot of contenders.
Kansas City Royals: The
Royals sit at 9-18, 7 games back of first. No one really thought they’d win the division, but there was
a lot of hope for this team that has been re-building for years, and seems to
finally have their team put together and ready to play in the majors. But this Kansas City squad seems to be
struggling as much as past teams have, except this time management can’t say,
“Just wait till we get our young guys up here”. The fans of this team are incredibly frustrated, especially
with their 2-12 record at home. The Royals need to see better production at the plate. They have the ability with the 10th
best team average in the majors.
But they are 22nd out of 30 teams in runs scored, as they
aren’t getting their guys across the plate. There is production there as Billy Butler is playing well
with a 298 AVG, 5 HR and leading the team with 19 RBI. Alcides Escobar is hitting 274 with 7
SB. And Mike Moustakas is hitting
304 with 4 HR and 15 RBI. But Eric
Hosmer is struggling despite his team leading 5 HR with a 192 AVG. Escobar only has 9 R. Francoeur is playing poorly and Alex
Gordon has also had a drop in production from last year. But as much as their bats are
struggling, it’s the starting pitching that is really letting them down. The best ERA among the starters is 4.98
from Bruce Chen. No pitcher on the
team has more than 2 Wins. Felipe
Paulino gave them 6 shutout innings in one start and Danny Duffy has a 3.57 ERA
over 4 starts. But their regular
starters all have ERAs in or around 5 and that’s not good. After the injury to Soria, Jonathan
Broxton is being asked to close again and has really stepped up going 5/6 in
Save chances with a 1.86 ERA. The
rest of the bullpen is okay, but they are coming into games in losing
situations after the starters have struggled. The Royals have a great group of young hitters who aren’t
performing. Their pitchers aren’t
fantastic and are pitching the way we expected. I think they can play better than this, but don’t expect
them to be contending in the Central division this year.
Minnesota Twins: Wow. Hard to believe that a few years ago
this team was consistently a top 3 finisher in the division. We blamed the issues last year on the
loss of Mauer and Morneau. And
while that’s still likely the case, we all now know how much we undervalued
Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel.
With them gone, Morneau back to the DL, and Mauer just playing okay,
this team is 7-20 with the worst record in the AL. They are 8.5 games back of first, and not likely to move to
far up the division this season.
They were no-hit by Jered Weaver last weak, they’ve lost their first
baseman again, and Jamey Carroll is their starting shortstop. Things are looking bleak in
Minneapolis. There are a few
positive signs. Denard Span is off
to a good start hitting 309 with 3 SB.
Josh Willingham was an invaluable pick up for them hitting 291 with a
team leading 5 HR and 15 RBI. And
Mauer is hitting 278. But the rest
of the offense is underperforming, and you’d like to see more power from the
catcher. And with the pitching
staff being as bad as it has been, they desperately need more from their
hitters. Carl Pavano’s 4.62 ERA is
the best among the starters. 2 of
the 6 guys they’ve used as starters have ERAs over 9. 4 of their 6 starters have BAAs of 300 or higher. And none of them have more than 2
Wins. Matt Capps has 5 Saves, but
a 4.50 ERA, which is extremely high for a closer. The rest of the bullpen is okay, but they can’t win games
when the starters give up a ton of runs that the offense can’t match. There’s not much going right in
Minnesota this season, and I’d be shocked if they moved out of the basement by
the All Star break.
AL WEST
Texas Rangers: The
Texas Rangers are off to a terrific start. After winning the pennant back-to-back years, they were not
okay with the Angels being projected to run away with this division and have
made a statement. Their 18-10
record is one of the best in baseball and their 3.5 game lead over the rest of
the division is the second highest margin in baseball. It starts with their dynamic offense,
which continues to be among the best in baseball. Josh Hamilton leads the team with a 381 AVG and also leads
the AL with 9 HR and 26 RBI. Ian
Kinsler leads the team with 28 R to go with his 284 AVG and 5 HR while Adrian
Beltre, Elvis Andrus and Michael Young are hitting over 300 and Mitch Moreland,
Craig Gentry and David Murphy are all hitting over 270. And even Mike Napoli is heating up with
7 HR this season. Almost every
hitter on this team is off to a good start and looks like they can play like
this all year. But that was never
in doubt. The question was, how
would these pitchers play after moving Neftali Feliz to the rotation, bringing
in a new closer in Joe Nathan and seeing ace C.J. Wilson move to the rival
Angels. And the answer is they
would be just fine. Colby Lewis is
off to a great start with a 2.97 ERA and a 3-1 record. Yu Darvish has stepped up to be the ace
with a 4-1 record and a 2.54 ERA (the best among the starters) and a team
leading 44 Ks. Neftali Feliz is fitting well in the starting rotation with a 3.81
ERA and fantastic 191 BAA. And the
bullpen continues to flourish with Nathan going 7 for 8 in Save chances, Alexi
Ogando holding down a 0.61 ERA and 5 bullpen guys with sub-3 ERAs. This team was expected to contend even
with the Angels being so strong, and with them struggling they are looking to
extend their lead and keep a stranglehold on this division that it will be
difficult for anyone, even the mighty Angels, to overcome.
Oakland Athletics: We
figured the Rangers would be one of the top 2 teams in the West. We didn’t think the Athletics would be
the other team. Right now Oakland
sits at 15-14, 3.5 games back of first.
They aren’t blowing anyone out of the water, but with the 11th
best ERA in baseball, they are led by a solid pitching staff that keeps the
team in games and has put the A’s one game over 500. Bartolo Colon leads the staff with a 2.83 ERA. Brandon McCarthy is right behind him at
2.86. And Tommy Milone is the team
leader in Wins with 4 and a deceptively high 4.42 ERA which belies his
effectiveness (226 BAA). Maddux,
Glavine and Smoltz they are not, but this group of starters is solid and
keeping an anemic offense in enough games that they are in second in their division
and have more Wins than losses after the first month of the season. And they have a winning record with
essentially the worst offensive output possible, ranking 26th in R
and dead last with a 213 team batting average. I don’t know if they’ll stay in second and I certainly don’t
think they will compete in this division, especially with that offensive
output. But if you were to tell
the A’s they’d play 500 ball or slightly better at the beginning of the season,
they’d have probably accepted that and been pretty happy with themselves.
Seattle Mariners: At
13-17 the Mariners sit 6 games back of first. This isn’t too much of a surprise, as we weren’t expecting
this team to be fantastic on either side of the ball. Kyle Seager, in his first full season with the team, leads
them in AVG hitting 298. Tied with
him is Ichiro, who has moved to third in the order and after one month has 1 HR
and 12 RBI. That puts him on pace
for 6 HR and 72 RBI, which isn’t what they were hoping to get from him. Jesus Montero is off to a good start
hitting 287 with 4 HR and 15 RBI.
But after those guys, everyone else is struggling with the team ranking
24th in AVG. And while
their pitching is a little better, it really drops off after Felix
Hernandez. Hernandez leads the
team with a 3-1 record, 1.89 ERA and 51 Ks. He really is dominant with a 0.94 WHIP and 189 BAA. Jason Vargas is also off to a good
start with a 3-2 record and 3.09 ERA (1.03 WHIP/201 BAA). But their other 3 starters (Blake
Beavan, Kevin Millwood and Hector Noesi) all have ERAs of 4.45 or higher and
losing records. And with the
anemic offense this team has had the past few years, they have to do better on
the mound, and until they do they will continue to struggle. They are third in this division right
now, and that’s where I had them finishing the season in my preseason
rankings. But this start may have
banished them to the basement for the year as the Angels are too good to stay
with them, and Oakland is outpitching them so far.
Los Angeles Angels: And
this is one of the other major surprises of the season. This team was picked by many to make
the World Series and by most to win the AL West. Instead they sit at 12-17, 6.5 games back of the Rangers,
currently in first. The pitching
was strong last year, and has continued to play at a high level, Ervin Santana
not withstanding. C.J. Wilson is
looking like a solid pickup going 4-2 with a 2.61 ERA in his 6 starts. Dan Haren and Jerome Williams are solid
with ERAs in the mid-3s. But Jered
Weaver is still the ace here. He’s
4-0 with a 1.61 ERA so far. He’s
got a no-hitter and a team leading 45 Ks to his name. He’s leading this fantastic starting group as they are
keeping their team in games. The
main issue this team is facing is the one they struggled with all last season,
and thought they had fixed in their aggressive offseason. And that is offense. Some guys are playing well. Kendrys Morales has come back from
injury to put together a strong April with a 318 AVG, which leads the
team. Mark Trumbo is playing okay
at third but is hitting very well at 313 with part of the team lead in HR with
4. He shares that lead with Torrii
Hunter (294) and Howie Kendrick (275).
But this offense was supposed to revolve around Albert Pujols. And Pujols is hitting an abysmal 196 at
this point in the season. He got
his first homer of the year recently, but nothing seems to be going right for
him. After getting a tremendous
contract that has been panned by many, he has come out of the gates ice cold,
and it’s killing the Angels.
Trumbo has great power but is very young. Morales is a wildcard after his injury, and Kendrick has
nice pop but isn’t expected to be a slugger. Pujols has to step it up, especially with Ianetta, Aybar,
Bourjous and Wells struggling with him and Bobby Abreu being cut after his slow
start. Mike Trout should inject
some life into this team, but he’s not the answer. The answer stands at first, criminally underperforming and
making the Angels look overmatched on the diamond. I don’t think they’ll stay last, and I think they still have
a chance to contend for the division title. But as bad as this start is, it’s made worse when you look
at the way the Rangers started, and may have the Angels chasing a wildcard at
the end of the year instead of a division crown.
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