Saturday, March 2, 2013

Atlanta Braves 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Football is done.  Pitchers and catchers are reporting.  Everyone is heading out to purchase his or her fantasy baseball magazines.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I waited for most of the free agents to sign.  Others may sign after I talk about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team breakdown as necessary.  I started with the AL West, and have now moved on to the AL East.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  Using last season’s final standings, the second NL East team I’ll tackle will be the Atlanta Braves.


Atlanta Braves:
2012 Record- 94-68  2nd in NL East (Wildcard Winner)

Projected Lineup

C-              Brian McCann
1B-            Freddie Freeman
2B-            Dan Uggla
SS-            Andrelton Simmons
3B-            Chris Johnson
LF-            Justin Upton
CF-            B.J. Upton
RF-            Jayson Heyward

Projected Batting Order

SS-            Andrelton Simmons
RF-            Jayson Heyward
LF-            Justin Upton
C-              Brian McCann
CF-            B.J. Upton
1B-            Freddie Freeman
2B-            Dan Uggla
3B-            Chris Johnson

Starting Rotation:            
Tim Hudson, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Paul Maholm, Brandon Beachy

Bullpen:
Craig Kimbrel (closer), Eric O’Flaherty, Jordan Walden, Jonny Venters, Cristhian Martinez, Luis Avilan, Cory Gearrin

It’s fair to say the Braves weren’t fans of the new wildcard system.  After a great season where they were tied for the third best record in the National League and had the wildcard wrapped up by about 6 games, the Braves were feeling good.  But this was the first year of the second wildcard and the one game toss up.  This made the Braves have to play a winner takes all single elimination game against the St. Louis Cardinals, the team that they had outpaced for the first wildcard game by the aforementioned 6 games.  All the other years, it would have meant a best of 5 against a division winner, last year likely the Cincinnati Reds.  They’d have at least 3 chances in a series like that.  Why should that matter?  In case something bizarre happens in the first game, like the worst ever infield fly call ever made.  That stuff happens, but you don’t want it to ruin a game, much less a team’s entire playoff chances.  That being said, the Braves couldn’t play defense in that game, and that’s what really did them in.  3 runs should have been enough for the hottest pitcher in baseball at the time, but even Kris Medlen couldn’t rise above all the errors the Braves committed.  And, all chances the Braves had of getting a re-do on the rest of the game (which manager Fredi Gonzalez played in protest) or any sympathy from the rest of the baseball world went out the window when the fans showered garbage on the field.  So the Braves just have to put all that behind them and move on (which I think they’ve done, it’s the Braves fans that need to take that to heart).  They’ve had a great offseason, the kind that makes you think this team may be turning a corner.  They signed one of the best free agents available in BJ Upton.  It was a huge deal for a guy that hasn’t lived up to his potential yet.  But BJ has the right-handed power bat that the Braves have needed for a while.  In addition, they made a trade for one of the most sought after players in the game, former Diamondbacks right fielder Justin Upton, who will join his brother BJ in Atlanta.  The talk of the Jones brothers (Andruw and Chipper…not biological brothers) may take a back seat to this phenomenon, as Atlanta may now be able to boast one of the best outfields in baseball.  Their offense, the weak point of this team for a long time, looks pretty potent.  However, there is a new concern in Atlanta that they’ve never had to deal with before….is there enough starting pitching?  That will be the question they deal with all year as their strong offense and the best bullpen in baseball work together to win it all.

Let’s take a look at the offense first.  The team-batting champ was Martin Prado, who was sent to Arizona for Justin Upton.  With his 301 AVG gone, Andrelton Simmons’ 289 AVG was second on the team.  However he only played in 49 games.  Next on the list was Chipper Jones at 287, who retired.  After Jones, Michael Bourn had the next best AVG at 274, but they lost him to free agency.  The next highest starter’s AVG on the team came from Jason Heyward at 269.  The Braves lost a lot of AVG this offseason.  They need some of it to come back.  They hope Andrelton Simmons can play all year like he did in his 49 games, but that’s a lot to hope for.  Justin Upton would have been the AVG leader on this team (after the departed Prado) had he spent a full season in Atlanta as he put up a 280 AVG.  They’ll need him to hit well, because a lot of Braves lacked a lot in the AVG department.  Freddie Freeman was the only other returning starter besides Heyward who hit over 250.  Brian McCann had a terrible season hitting 230 and fighting an injury all year.  Dan Uggla again underperformed hitting 220.  Their new center fielder, BJ Upton, only hit 246.  So the Braves may have some issues getting on base.  But Justin Upton and new third baseman Chris Johnson both hit 280 in 2012 and Justin has 300 potential.  Andrelton Simmons hit well in his limited time and a healthy Brian McCann should return to 270.  They’d like to see Heyward improve his AVG, and as he comes into his 4th season, he’s still improving.  If someone can get on base, they have a good shot to be driven in.  The one thing this team won’t be lacking (for the first time in a long time) is power.  The Braves used to put together a club of 8 guys who could all hit 270+ and potentially pop off 15 HR.  But they had no slugger who would hit 240 with 35+ HR.  This year, they’ve changed that.  Last season the Braves had 3 players with over 20 HR and one more (Dan Uggla) just short of that list at 19 HR.  Jason Heyward and his 27 HR led them.  They’ve added Justin and BJ Upton, who contributed 17 and 28 HR to their clubs respectively.  New third baseman Chris Johnson had 15 HR in Houston and Arizona last year.  That’s a lot of power.  Other than shortstop Andrelton Simmons, there is not a single starter on this club that isn’t capable of 15+ HR.  Take Chris Johnson out of that and 20+ HR is a real expectation of the other players on this team.  That’s how they plan to score runs in Atlanta.  And scoring a lot of R is one thing the Braves did well.  Freddie Freeman led the team with 94 RBI to go with his 23 HR.  Last year was his second full season.  Jason Heyward was second on the team with 82 RBI and McCann still drove in 67 in a bad year.  Justin Upton matched his 67 RBI, Chris Johnson edged them out for 76 RBI and BJ Upton drove in 78 last year.  So the Braves have power and know how to drive in R.  And while they lost a lot of speed with the departure of Michael Bourn, they got a lot of it back in the Uptons.  Justin stole 17 bases and BJ swiped 31.  Add in Jason Heyward’s 21 and there is some decent speed on this club.  The Braves have a lot of weapons; they just have to hope they can put it all together.  The key to this team is actually a returning Brave, Jason Heyward.  As a 20/20 man who hit 269, he is one of the key cogs on this team.  After hitting third most of last season, he’ll move to second so he can get on base for the Uptons. They need Heyward’s power and speed, and may also need him to improve his on base percentage if Andrelton Simmons struggles leading off.  Justin Upton is an all around star as well and they hope their corner outfielders will pace this team in all the offensive categories.  After them, they hope power from McCann, Freeman, BJ Upton and, hopefully, Dan Uggla can drive in the top of the order and score enough runs.  But if no one gets on base, then this team will struggle.  Without an obvious leadoff hitter, they’ve put a lot on Simmons and Heyward and hope they can help this team spark the offense.

The Braves pitching is actually a cause for some concern as well, for the first time in about a decade.  Their star pitcher of the first half, Brandon Beachy, is out until around the All Star Break, dealing with Tommy John rehab.  Jair Jurrens was a disaster last year and they Braves let him and his 6.89 ERA go.  They traded Tommy Hanson for a reliever.  Randall Delgado went to Arizona with Martin Prado and others for Justin Upton and Chris Johnson.  They’ve got 5 solid guys to start the season and a 6th guy hopefully coming back for the second half.  But there isn’t a lot of starting depth left with major league experience after that.  The Braves have to hope their whole rotation stays healthy, which is a lot to hope for.  The good news is that the Braves have a lot of starting talent returning.  Veteran Tim Hudson led the club in Wins (16) and ERA (3.62).  He’s getting up there in age, but was able to start 28 games for the Bravos last season, logging 179 IP.  He’s not a big strikeout guy (103) but throws that heavy sinker to get batter to ground out.  That enables him to be successful even deep into his 30s, and keeps his pitch count low while his IP number climbs.  The Braves need his veteran leadership to lead the staff and eat some innings.  After him, you have the new ace of the staff, Kris Medlen.  His brilliance was well documented in his 12 second half starts last year.  Adding in his relief numbers from the first half, Medlen was 10-1 with a 1.57 ERA.  There’s no way he’ll be as dominant over a full season, but with a 0.91 WHIP and 208 BAA, he looks to have a good chance to have another great season.  He’s not going to K 200 guys, but 175+ is a real possibility if he reaches 200 IP to go with 15+ Wins.  Mike Minor is the number 3 man, who struggled in the first half, but turned it around in the second half.  He ended the year with an 11-10 record and a 4.12 ERA.  If he can pitch all year like he did in the second half, then I’d expect a double digit win season with a sub-4 ERA.  After those guys, Atlanta will get a full season out of Paul Maholm who went 13-11 with a 3.67 ERA last year.  The 5th spot in the rotation goes to youngster Julio Tehran, who has struggled in his major league appearances despite being ranked as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball for the last few years.  With Randall Delgado in Arizona and no other viable alternatives around to take his job, hopefully he can calm down and play up to his potential.  If he does, he may find a way to hold onto that starting job, even with Brandon Beachy returning in the second half.  The Braves would love that, so they could ease Beachy back and not rush him so soon after his recovery.  So with the starting rotation, the Braves have just enough to get by.  The good news in Atlanta is that they have possibly the best bullpen in baseball to bail them out if necessary.  They are led by possibly the best closer in baseball right now, Craig Kimbrel.  Kimbrel Saved 42 games while turning in a 1.01 ERA.  His 0.65 WHIP and 126 BAA are video game numbers.  He is the definition of overpowering with 116 Ks in 62 IP.  He struck out half the batters he faced last year.  He is set to continue dominating the 9th in Atlanta, and win more Rolaids Relief Awards.  Eric O’Flaherty led the team with 28 Holds, as he became the main setup man with Johnny Venters’ struggles.  He is also a lefty, who sets up for the right handed Kimbrel nicely.  His 1.73 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 229 BAA were great and make me believe he can continue to lock down the 8th well.  He’s always been good, just overshadowed by Venters and Kimbrel.  Venters didn’t have a terrible year with 20 Holds and 69 Ks in 58 IP.  But his ERA was way too high for a reliever (3.22) his WHIP was abysmal (1.52) and too many guys were getting hits off him (270 BAA).  Losing the setup job hurts, but enables him to be a lefty specialist and gain his confidence back.  If he can do that job well, I’m sure the Braves would welcome the problem of having two great lefty setup men.  Until then, they’ll settle for Venters to be an elite lefty specialist.  The one major bullpen change Atlanta made was to bring in a power right handed arm to complement Venters and O’Flaherty.  They found that arm in LA in the form of Jordan Walden.  The Braves shipped Tommy Hanson out to Disneyland to get Mr. Walden.  I think a starter for reliever trade is never good for the team that loses the starter, but the fact is Walden will help this bullpen.  Walden had a roller coaster year as the closer in Anaheim 2 years ago, and became a setup man last year.  His 3.46 ERA was too high for that spot, and he gave up too many free passes with a 1.36 WHIP.  But he struck out 48 in 39 IP, and has great stuff.  The Braves will treat him like Venters, as a righty specialist who can get a K when necessary.  If the Braves can get a strong showing from the bullpen, and starting pitching at least as good as last year, they should be able to compete in the talented NL East.  And I think they’ve got the arms to do it.

2013 Prediction:

Atlanta has a great team.  One of the best in the league.  They were the first wildcard team last year, and I think they’ve got enough talent to be that team again.  They improved a lot with the addition of the Upton brothers.  The bad news for Atlanta is that they play in a division with the Washington Nationals, who many people believe are the best team in baseball.  I think Atlanta has enough talent to win 90 games.  But I don’t think that will be enough to win the division.  I think they will be the number 2 team in the division again this year, but a definite threat to win the wildcard.

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