Well it’s that time.
Football is done. Pitchers
and catchers are reporting.
Everyone is heading out to purchase his or her fantasy baseball
magazines. And you are wondering
what your team is looking like heading into the new season. Well I’m here to tell you with my team
breakdowns. I waited for most of
the free agents to sign. Others
may sign after I talk about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team
breakdown as necessary. I started
with the AL West, and have now moved on to the AL East. And while I ranked teams alphabetically
last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings. Using last season’s final standings,
the second NL East team I’ll tackle will be the Atlanta Braves.
Atlanta Braves:
2012 Record- 94-68
2nd in NL East (Wildcard Winner)
Projected Lineup
C- Brian
McCann
1B- Freddie
Freeman
2B- Dan
Uggla
SS- Andrelton
Simmons
3B- Chris
Johnson
LF- Justin
Upton
CF- B.J.
Upton
RF- Jayson
Heyward
Projected Batting Order
SS- Andrelton
Simmons
RF- Jayson
Heyward
LF- Justin
Upton
C- Brian
McCann
CF- B.J.
Upton
1B- Freddie
Freeman
2B- Dan
Uggla
3B- Chris
Johnson
Starting Rotation:
Tim
Hudson, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Paul Maholm, Brandon Beachy
Bullpen:
Craig
Kimbrel (closer), Eric O’Flaherty, Jordan Walden, Jonny Venters,
Cristhian Martinez, Luis Avilan, Cory Gearrin
It’s fair to say the Braves weren’t fans of the new wildcard
system. After a great season where
they were tied for the third best record in the National League and had the
wildcard wrapped up by about 6 games, the Braves were feeling good. But this was the first year of the
second wildcard and the one game toss up.
This made the Braves have to play a winner takes all single elimination
game against the St. Louis Cardinals, the team that they had outpaced for the
first wildcard game by the aforementioned 6 games. All the other years, it would have meant a best of 5 against
a division winner, last year likely the Cincinnati Reds. They’d have at least 3 chances in a
series like that. Why should that
matter? In case something bizarre
happens in the first game, like the worst ever infield fly call ever made. That stuff happens, but you don’t want
it to ruin a game, much less a team’s entire playoff chances. That being said, the Braves couldn’t
play defense in that game, and that’s what really did them in. 3 runs should have been enough for the
hottest pitcher in baseball at the time, but even Kris Medlen couldn’t rise
above all the errors the Braves committed. And, all chances the Braves had of getting a re-do on the
rest of the game (which manager Fredi Gonzalez played in protest) or any
sympathy from the rest of the baseball world went out the window when the fans
showered garbage on the field. So
the Braves just have to put all that behind them and move on (which I think
they’ve done, it’s the Braves fans that need to take that to heart). They’ve had a great offseason, the kind
that makes you think this team may be turning a corner. They signed one of the best free agents
available in BJ Upton. It was a
huge deal for a guy that hasn’t lived up to his potential yet. But BJ has the right-handed power bat
that the Braves have needed for a while.
In addition, they made a trade for one of the most sought after players
in the game, former Diamondbacks right fielder Justin Upton, who will join his
brother BJ in Atlanta. The talk of
the Jones brothers (Andruw and Chipper…not biological brothers) may take a back
seat to this phenomenon, as Atlanta may now be able to boast one of the best
outfields in baseball. Their
offense, the weak point of this team for a long time, looks pretty potent. However, there is a new concern in
Atlanta that they’ve never had to deal with before….is there enough starting
pitching? That will be the
question they deal with all year as their strong offense and the best bullpen
in baseball work together to win it all.
Let’s take a look at the offense first. The team-batting champ was Martin
Prado, who was sent to Arizona for Justin Upton. With his 301 AVG gone, Andrelton Simmons’ 289 AVG was second
on the team. However he only
played in 49 games. Next on the
list was Chipper Jones at 287, who retired. After Jones, Michael Bourn had the next best AVG at 274, but
they lost him to free agency. The
next highest starter’s AVG on the team came from Jason Heyward at 269. The Braves lost a lot of AVG this
offseason. They need some of it to
come back. They hope Andrelton
Simmons can play all year like he did in his 49 games, but that’s a lot to hope
for. Justin Upton would have been
the AVG leader on this team (after the departed Prado) had he spent a full
season in Atlanta as he put up a 280 AVG.
They’ll need him to hit well, because a lot of Braves lacked a lot in
the AVG department. Freddie
Freeman was the only other returning starter besides Heyward who hit over
250. Brian McCann had a terrible
season hitting 230 and fighting an injury all year. Dan Uggla again underperformed hitting 220. Their new center fielder, BJ Upton,
only hit 246. So the Braves may
have some issues getting on base.
But Justin Upton and new third baseman Chris Johnson both hit 280 in
2012 and Justin has 300 potential.
Andrelton Simmons hit well in his limited time and a healthy Brian
McCann should return to 270.
They’d like to see Heyward improve his AVG, and as he comes into his 4th
season, he’s still improving. If
someone can get on base, they have a good shot to be driven in. The one thing this team won’t be
lacking (for the first time in a long time) is power. The Braves used to put together a club of 8 guys who could
all hit 270+ and potentially pop off 15 HR. But they had no slugger who would hit 240 with 35+ HR. This year, they’ve changed that. Last season the Braves had 3 players
with over 20 HR and one more (Dan Uggla) just short of that list at 19 HR. Jason Heyward and his 27 HR led them. They’ve added Justin and BJ Upton, who
contributed 17 and 28 HR to their clubs respectively. New third baseman Chris Johnson had 15 HR in Houston and
Arizona last year. That’s a lot of
power. Other than shortstop
Andrelton Simmons, there is not a single starter on this club that isn’t
capable of 15+ HR. Take Chris
Johnson out of that and 20+ HR is a real expectation of the other players on
this team. That’s how they plan to
score runs in Atlanta. And scoring
a lot of R is one thing the Braves did well. Freddie Freeman led the team with 94 RBI to go with his 23
HR. Last year was his second full
season. Jason Heyward was second
on the team with 82 RBI and McCann still drove in 67 in a bad year. Justin Upton matched his 67 RBI, Chris
Johnson edged them out for 76 RBI and BJ Upton drove in 78 last year. So the Braves have power and know how
to drive in R. And while they lost
a lot of speed with the departure of Michael Bourn, they got a lot of it back
in the Uptons. Justin stole 17
bases and BJ swiped 31. Add in
Jason Heyward’s 21 and there is some decent speed on this club. The Braves have a lot of weapons; they
just have to hope they can put it all together. The key to this team is actually a returning Brave, Jason
Heyward. As a 20/20 man who hit
269, he is one of the key cogs on this team. After hitting third most of last season, he’ll move to
second so he can get on base for the Uptons. They need Heyward’s power and
speed, and may also need him to improve his on base percentage if Andrelton
Simmons struggles leading off.
Justin Upton is an all around star as well and they hope their corner
outfielders will pace this team in all the offensive categories. After them, they hope power from
McCann, Freeman, BJ Upton and, hopefully, Dan Uggla can drive in the top of the
order and score enough runs. But
if no one gets on base, then this team will struggle. Without an obvious leadoff hitter, they’ve put a lot on
Simmons and Heyward and hope they can help this team spark the offense.
The Braves pitching is actually a cause for some concern as
well, for the first time in about a decade. Their star pitcher of the first half, Brandon Beachy, is out
until around the All Star Break, dealing with Tommy John rehab. Jair Jurrens was a disaster last year
and they Braves let him and his 6.89 ERA go. They traded Tommy Hanson for a reliever. Randall Delgado went to Arizona with
Martin Prado and others for Justin Upton and Chris Johnson. They’ve got 5 solid guys to start the
season and a 6th guy hopefully coming back for the second half. But there isn’t a lot of starting depth
left with major league experience after that. The Braves have to hope their whole rotation stays healthy,
which is a lot to hope for. The
good news is that the Braves have a lot of starting talent returning. Veteran Tim Hudson led the club in Wins
(16) and ERA (3.62). He’s getting
up there in age, but was able to start 28 games for the Bravos last season,
logging 179 IP. He’s not a big
strikeout guy (103) but throws that heavy sinker to get batter to ground
out. That enables him to be successful
even deep into his 30s, and keeps his pitch count low while his IP number climbs. The Braves need his veteran leadership
to lead the staff and eat some innings.
After him, you have the new ace of the staff, Kris Medlen. His brilliance was well documented in
his 12 second half starts last year.
Adding in his relief numbers from the first half, Medlen was 10-1 with a
1.57 ERA. There’s no way he’ll be
as dominant over a full season, but with a 0.91 WHIP and 208 BAA, he looks to
have a good chance to have another great season. He’s not going to K 200 guys, but 175+ is a real possibility
if he reaches 200 IP to go with 15+ Wins.
Mike Minor is the number 3 man, who struggled in the first half, but
turned it around in the second half.
He ended the year with an 11-10 record and a 4.12 ERA. If he can pitch all year like he did in
the second half, then I’d expect a double digit win season with a sub-4
ERA. After those guys, Atlanta
will get a full season out of Paul Maholm who went 13-11 with a 3.67 ERA last
year. The 5th spot in
the rotation goes to youngster Julio Tehran, who has struggled in his major
league appearances despite being ranked as one of the best pitching prospects
in baseball for the last few years.
With Randall Delgado in Arizona and no other viable alternatives around
to take his job, hopefully he can calm down and play up to his potential. If he does, he may find a way to hold
onto that starting job, even with Brandon Beachy returning in the second
half. The Braves would love that,
so they could ease Beachy back and not rush him so soon after his recovery. So with the starting rotation, the
Braves have just enough to get by.
The good news in Atlanta is that they have possibly the best bullpen in
baseball to bail them out if necessary.
They are led by possibly the best closer in baseball right now, Craig
Kimbrel. Kimbrel Saved 42 games
while turning in a 1.01 ERA. His
0.65 WHIP and 126 BAA are video game numbers. He is the definition of overpowering with 116 Ks in 62
IP. He struck out half the batters
he faced last year. He is set to
continue dominating the 9th in Atlanta, and win more Rolaids Relief
Awards. Eric O’Flaherty led the
team with 28 Holds, as he became the main setup man with Johnny Venters’
struggles. He is also a lefty, who
sets up for the right handed Kimbrel nicely. His 1.73 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 229 BAA were great and make me
believe he can continue to lock down the 8th well. He’s always been good, just
overshadowed by Venters and Kimbrel.
Venters didn’t have a terrible year with 20 Holds and 69 Ks in 58
IP. But his ERA was way too high
for a reliever (3.22) his WHIP was abysmal (1.52) and too many guys were
getting hits off him (270 BAA).
Losing the setup job hurts, but enables him to be a lefty specialist and
gain his confidence back. If he
can do that job well, I’m sure the Braves would welcome the problem of having
two great lefty setup men. Until
then, they’ll settle for Venters to be an elite lefty specialist. The one major bullpen change Atlanta
made was to bring in a power right handed arm to complement Venters and
O’Flaherty. They found that arm in
LA in the form of Jordan Walden.
The Braves shipped Tommy Hanson out to Disneyland to get Mr.
Walden. I think a starter for
reliever trade is never good for the team that loses the starter, but the fact
is Walden will help this bullpen.
Walden had a roller coaster year as the closer in Anaheim 2 years ago,
and became a setup man last year.
His 3.46 ERA was too high for that spot, and he gave up too many free
passes with a 1.36 WHIP. But he
struck out 48 in 39 IP, and has great stuff. The Braves will treat him like Venters, as a righty
specialist who can get a K when necessary. If the Braves can get a strong showing from the bullpen, and
starting pitching at least as good as last year, they should be able to compete
in the talented NL East. And I
think they’ve got the arms to do it.
2013 Prediction:
Atlanta has a great team. One of the best in the league. They were the first wildcard team last year, and I think
they’ve got enough talent to be that team again. They improved a lot with the addition of the Upton
brothers. The bad news for Atlanta
is that they play in a division with the Washington Nationals, who many people
believe are the best team in baseball.
I think Atlanta has enough talent to win 90 games. But I don’t think that will be enough
to win the division. I think they
will be the number 2 team in the division again this year, but a definite
threat to win the wildcard.
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