Well it’s that time.
Football is done. Spring training match-ups have begun in earnest.
Everyone is heading out to purchase his or her fantasy baseball
magazines. And you are wondering
what your team is looking like heading into the new season. Well I’m here to tell you with my team
breakdowns. I waited for most of
the free agents to sign. Others
may sign after I talk about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team
breakdown as necessary. Last year
I started with the NL East. This
year I’ll start with the AL West.
And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank
them based on last season’s standings.
I finished the AL West first, and now I’ll move to the NL East, to keep
pace with my radio show, The Foul Pole, which you can listen to on All Noise
Radio every Thursday night at 8 Eastern. If you missed Thursday's show, be sure to listen tonight at 7 Eastern on All Noise Radio.com. For more info, go to facebook.com/TheFoulPole. Using last season’s final standings, the first NL East team
I’ll tackle will be the Washington Nationals.
Washington Nationals:
2012 Record- 98-64 1st in NL East (best record in
MLB)
Projected Lineup
C- Wilson
Ramos
1B- Adam
LaRoche
2B- Danny
Espinosa
SS- Ian
Desmond
3B- Ryan
Zimmerman
LF- Bryce
Harper
CF- Denard
Span
RF- Jayson
Werth
Projected Batting Order
CF- Denard
Span
LF- Bryce
Harper
3B- Ryan
Zimmerman
1B- Adam
LaRoche
RF- Jayson
Werth
C- Wilson
Ramos
SS- Ian
Desmond
2B- Danny
Espinosa
Starting Rotation:
Stephen
Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, Dan Haren,
Ross Detwiler
Bullpen:
Rafael
Soriano (closer), Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Craig Stammen,
Henry Rodriguez, Zach Duke, Ryan Mattheus
It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. A great opening line.
And appropriate for the 2012 summation of the Washington Nationals
season. After an offseason of
impossible hype, the best regular season record in baseball and a petulant
stubbornness to sit your best pitcher despite your need of him, the Nationals
prepare for this season recently bumped from the NLDS by the Cards and ready to
go all the way this year. That is
part of the reason their motto is “World Series or Bust” this season. And while that’s theoretically every
team’s motto, I think it’s a little grandiose for the likes of the Astros and Mets. The Nationals feel like they
have a legitimate shot to win it all.
It’s hard to disagree with them.
They were arguably the best team in baseball last year. This year, they look just as good, and
possibly better since they have no plans to do asinine things like sit one of
the best pitchers in baseball right around the start of the playoffs. After losing Edwin Jackson, the Nats
bought low on former ace Dan Haren, and look to be just as good in the starting
rotation, if not better. They have
a full season of Bryce Harper to play left field for them. His move to left helps the defense as
their new center fielder, Denard Span, is a legitimate leadoff hitter who plays
a strong defensive center field. Signing Rafael Soriano to close makes their other back end pitchers elite set-up men, and gives them one of the best bullpens in baseball. And the re-signing of Adam LaRoche shores up first base and allowed them
to ship off Michael Morse, a good player but one for whom they had no position,
and in return they received a crop of young prospects back to keep this team
looking strong in the future. They
may play in the best division in the National league, but they look to be the
best team in that division. I’d be
shocked if they aren't a major force in the postseason this year.
The leading hitter for this club last season was Ian
Desmond. Desmond hit 292, and
right now I have him hitting in the bottom of the order. Perhaps he’ll hit a little higher,
maybe second if some of the middle order guys (Jayson Werth) struggle. Or perhaps he’s hot in spring training
and he begins the year nearer the top.
The point is that they have options. If they roll out my lineup, then they have a potential 300
hitter batting 7th.
Desmond was also a 20/20 man, slugging 25 HR and driving in 73 while
scoring 72 R. So his power can
help clean things up in the bottom third of the order while his ability to hit
for average and his speed make him a top of the lineup asset. The other team leader was Adam LaRoche,
whose 33 HR and 100 RBI were tops in DC.
Add to that a 271 AVG, 76 R and a Gold Glove and you see why LaRoche is
one of the most important pieces of this club. LaRoche profiles as a number 5 man, but is best sutited to
hit cleanup in this lineup. The
Nats really don’t have a natural number 4 man, but they have 3 guys who could
be 5 men. I put one 4th,
one 5th and one 2nd in my projected batting order. LaRoche won’t match the number he put
up last year, but 25 HR is very reasonable and I think he can come close to 100
RBI again. Batting second (again
in my projection) is rookie of the year Bryce Harper. Harper had a great rookie season with a 270 AVG, 22 HR, 59 RBI,
a team leading 98 R (after missing the first few months as a minor leaguer) and
18 SB. A full season gives us a
real 20/20 threat, perhaps even a 30/30 man. 30 HR is a much stronger possibility with 75+ RBI, depending
on where he bats. He is a future
star, and should really come on in 2013.
However I think the key to this offense if Jayson Werth. After signing a huge deal in the 2011
offseason, he has struggled out of the gate. He played in 150 games in 2011, right after signing the
deal, but only hit 232. He did
slug 20 HR and swipe 19 bags, but that’s not worth the money he was getting
paid. The fans were unhappy with
him and let him know it. An injury
limited him to a half season last year, but he played much better in those
games. He was able to bat 300 with
5 HR, 31 RBI, 42 R and 8 SB. Over
a full season that’s 10 HR, 62 RBI, 84 R and 16 SB. The power wasn’t where they wanted it. But they AVG was good and he kept up
that speed, which is good for a guy his age. If that’s what he’s going to do, he could be a star in the
2-hole, a place where he played in the past. That may not be what the Nats want, especially with how much
he is owed. But he was overpaid
and will never live up to that contract.
Accept that. If you do,
then you see a guy who has a lot of value, can hit in any number of spots in
this lineup, and is a big role player who does a lot of things well. I think a good season of Werth will be
one of the most important pieces of a good season in DC.
When it comes to the Nationals pitching staff, one name
takes all the headlines: Stephen
Strasburg: the up and coming
phenom. He was having a great
season that should have ended up with a postseason appearance. But, in a move that runs contrary to
all common sense, the Nationals sat Strasburg as the postseason came on. So that’s a lot of the reason for
Strasburg stealing the headlines.
But who was the best pitcher for the Nationals last season? That would be Gio Gonzalez who led the
Nationals in the pitching triple crown categories with 21 Wins, a 2.89 ERA and
207 Ks in a team leading 199 IP.
This guy was a monster, and it looks like he should be able to repeat
it, sporting a miniscule 206 BAA and good 1.13 WHIP. He still had
76 BBs, but that was an improvement and playing for a good Nationals team put
him over 20 Wins. And when you don’t give up
hits, strike out a ton of guys and keep your ERA low, it will win you a lot of
games. I don’t know why more
players don’t try that method. I kid, of course. After Gonzalez, the starter with the next best numbers was arguably
Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman pitched like a stud, good
enough to be a number 2 man on many teams, an ace on a couple. He comes behind Strasburg and Gonzalez
on this depth chart, but doesn’t pitch like a number 3 man. He went 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA last
season in 195 IP, good enough for second on the team. Now, he may see some regression last year as his 251 BAA and
1.17 WHIP aren’t as strong as that ERA number, but he can approach 200 IP and
should keep his ERA south of 4. And, of course, we have Stephen
Strasburg. He was great for the Nats
in his 28 starts. He went 15-6
with a 3.16 ERA and 197 Ks. He
almost struck out 200 in only 159 IP.
He won 15 games in only 28 starts.
This guy was a monster. And
it looks like he should continue to be one of the NL’s best in 2013. His 230 BAA and 1.15 WHIP were
solid. Without
an inane innings limit, this guy could really be a frontrunner in the Cy Young
race. This is an increble staff. After those 3, the Nats will return
breakout star Ross Detwiler.
Detwiler wasn’t even a lock to make this starting rotation last year. In fact I
had him in the bullpen behind John Lannan. But after sending Lannan to the minors, Davey Johnson’s
faith was rewarded as Detwiler went 10-8 with a 3.40 ERA. Edwin Jackson was last
season’s number 4 starter. He was
let go and replaced with Dan Haren.
Haren had a bit of a down season in the AL West with the Angels last
year, going 12-13 with a 4.33 ERA.
He was limited to 30 starts and his peripherals (275 BAA, 1.29 WHIP)
were not very good. However, he is
one season removed from a 16-10 season with a 3.17 ERA and 192 Ks in 238
IP. He’s a workhorse. The season before that one was cut to
14 starts due to injury, but he still won 5 games and turned in a 2.87
ERA. The point is, Haren is a
former ace with a workhorse mentality. Moving to the NL East will help his numbers a bit. While that divison isn’t bad, he’s on
he best team in that division with the other teams featuring a bunch of new
players, one with aging players and two at the bottom of the division that have
a ton of holes. I don’t think
he’ll be a Cy Young candidate this year, but 10-15 Wins with a sub-4 ERA are a
real possibility. I also think a
healthy Haren approaches 220 IP with 180+ Ks. This starting rotation has 2 guys who can break 200 Ks, 3
that can break 175 and all 5 can surpass 150. They will miss a lot of bats and should be considered
favorites in the NL. The bullpen
is now anchored by new closer Rafael Soriano who Saved 42 games for the Yankees
after the loss of Mariano Rivera.
He struck out 69 in 67 IP with a 2.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 217 BAA. His career BAA is 199. And as the primary closer in DC, he has
a chance to Save 50+ games and should continue to be a high strikeout guy who
doesn’t give up a lot of R. I’d
not be overly surprised to see him turn in a sub-2 ERA. The Nats already had a strong closers
in Tyler Clippard (32 Saves last year) and Drew Storen (43 Saves the year
before last). Bump those two guys
back an inning, and you have great starters only being asked to go 6. Beyond those guys you have strong
pitchers in Craig Stammen and Henry Rodriguez and a former starter in Zach
Duke. This may not be the best
bullpen in baseball, but it’s near the top.
2013 Prediction:
The Nationals are a great team. Yahoosports has them ranked as the number one team in
baseball coming into this season.
They have a very strong 1-8 in the offense and 4 quality starting
pitchers, not to mention a scary bullpen.
There are no weaknesses on this club, and they have a ton of stars. It’s hard not to pick them to win the
NL pennant, much less the NL East.
And I’ve got them locking up this division and having a very strong
year.
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