Saturday, February 23, 2013

Washington 2013 Team Breakdown


Well it’s that time.  Football is done.  Spring training match-ups have begun in earnest.  Everyone is heading out to purchase his or her fantasy baseball magazines.  And you are wondering what your team is looking like heading into the new season.  Well I’m here to tell you with my team breakdowns.  I waited for most of the free agents to sign.  Others may sign after I talk about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team breakdown as necessary.  Last year I started with the NL East.  This year I’ll start with the AL West.  And while I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last season’s standings.  I finished the AL West first, and now I’ll move to the NL East, to keep pace with my radio show, The Foul Pole, which you can listen to on All Noise Radio every Thursday night at 8 Eastern.  If you missed Thursday's show, be sure to listen tonight at 7 Eastern on All Noise Radio.com.  For more info, go to facebook.com/TheFoulPole.  Using last season’s final standings, the first NL East team I’ll tackle will be the Washington Nationals.


Washington Nationals:
2012 Record- 98-64 1st in NL East (best record in MLB)

Projected Lineup

C-              Wilson Ramos
1B-            Adam LaRoche
2B-            Danny Espinosa
SS-            Ian Desmond
3B-            Ryan Zimmerman
LF-            Bryce Harper
CF-            Denard Span
RF-            Jayson Werth

Projected Batting Order

CF-            Denard Span
LF-            Bryce Harper
3B-            Ryan Zimmerman
1B-            Adam LaRoche
RF-            Jayson Werth
C-              Wilson Ramos
SS-            Ian Desmond
2B-            Danny Espinosa

Starting Rotation:
Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, Dan Haren, Ross Detwiler

Bullpen:                         
Rafael Soriano (closer), Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Craig Stammen, Henry Rodriguez, Zach Duke, Ryan Mattheus


It was the best of times.  It was the worst of times.  A great opening line.  And appropriate for the 2012 summation of the Washington Nationals season.  After an offseason of impossible hype, the best regular season record in baseball and a petulant stubbornness to sit your best pitcher despite your need of him, the Nationals prepare for this season recently bumped from the NLDS by the Cards and ready to go all the way this year.  That is part of the reason their motto is “World Series or Bust” this season.  And while that’s theoretically every team’s motto, I think it’s a little grandiose for the likes of the Astros and Mets.  The Nationals feel like they have a legitimate shot to win it all.  It’s hard to disagree with them.  They were arguably the best team in baseball last year.  This year, they look just as good, and possibly better since they have no plans to do asinine things like sit one of the best pitchers in baseball right around the start of the playoffs.  After losing Edwin Jackson, the Nats bought low on former ace Dan Haren, and look to be just as good in the starting rotation, if not better.  They have a full season of Bryce Harper to play left field for them.  His move to left helps the defense as their new center fielder, Denard Span, is a legitimate leadoff hitter who plays a strong defensive center field.  Signing Rafael Soriano to close makes their other back end pitchers elite set-up men, and gives them one of the best bullpens in baseball.  And the re-signing of Adam LaRoche shores up first base and allowed them to ship off Michael Morse, a good player but one for whom they had no position, and in return they received a crop of young prospects back to keep this team looking strong in the future.  They may play in the best division in the National league, but they look to be the best team in that division.  I’d be shocked if they aren't a major force in the postseason this year.

The leading hitter for this club last season was Ian Desmond.  Desmond hit 292, and right now I have him hitting in the bottom of the order.  Perhaps he’ll hit a little higher, maybe second if some of the middle order guys (Jayson Werth) struggle.  Or perhaps he’s hot in spring training and he begins the year nearer the top.  The point is that they have options.  If they roll out my lineup, then they have a potential 300 hitter batting 7th.  Desmond was also a 20/20 man, slugging 25 HR and driving in 73 while scoring 72 R.  So his power can help clean things up in the bottom third of the order while his ability to hit for average and his speed make him a top of the lineup asset.  The other team leader was Adam LaRoche, whose 33 HR and 100 RBI were tops in DC.  Add to that a 271 AVG, 76 R and a Gold Glove and you see why LaRoche is one of the most important pieces of this club.  LaRoche profiles as a number 5 man, but is best sutited to hit cleanup in this lineup.  The Nats really don’t have a natural number 4 man, but they have 3 guys who could be 5 men.  I put one 4th, one 5th and one 2nd in my projected batting order.  LaRoche won’t match the number he put up last year, but 25 HR is very reasonable and I think he can come close to 100 RBI again.  Batting second (again in my projection) is rookie of the year Bryce Harper.  Harper had a great rookie season with a 270 AVG, 22 HR, 59 RBI, a team leading 98 R (after missing the first few months as a minor leaguer) and 18 SB.  A full season gives us a real 20/20 threat, perhaps even a 30/30 man.  30 HR is a much stronger possibility with 75+ RBI, depending on where he bats.  He is a future star, and should really come on in 2013.  However I think the key to this offense if Jayson Werth.  After signing a huge deal in the 2011 offseason, he has struggled out of the gate.  He played in 150 games in 2011, right after signing the deal, but only hit 232.  He did slug 20 HR and swipe 19 bags, but that’s not worth the money he was getting paid.  The fans were unhappy with him and let him know it.  An injury limited him to a half season last year, but he played much better in those games.  He was able to bat 300 with 5 HR, 31 RBI, 42 R and 8 SB.  Over a full season that’s 10 HR, 62 RBI, 84 R and 16 SB.  The power wasn’t where they wanted it.  But they AVG was good and he kept up that speed, which is good for a guy his age.  If that’s what he’s going to do, he could be a star in the 2-hole, a place where he played in the past.  That may not be what the Nats want, especially with how much he is owed.  But he was overpaid and will never live up to that contract.  Accept that.  If you do, then you see a guy who has a lot of value, can hit in any number of spots in this lineup, and is a big role player who does a lot of things well.  I think a good season of Werth will be one of the most important pieces of a good season in DC. 

When it comes to the Nationals pitching staff, one name takes all the headlines:  Stephen Strasburg:  the up and coming phenom.  He was having a great season that should have ended up with a postseason appearance.  But, in a move that runs contrary to all common sense, the Nationals sat Strasburg as the postseason came on.  So that’s a lot of the reason for Strasburg stealing the headlines.  But who was the best pitcher for the Nationals last season?  That would be Gio Gonzalez who led the Nationals in the pitching triple crown categories with 21 Wins, a 2.89 ERA and 207 Ks in a team leading 199 IP.  This guy was a monster, and it looks like he should be able to repeat it, sporting a miniscule 206 BAA and good 1.13 WHIP.  He still had 76 BBs, but that was an improvement and playing for a good Nationals team put him over 20 Wins.  And when you don’t give up hits, strike out a ton of guys and keep your ERA low, it will win you a lot of games.  I don’t know why more players don’t try that method.  I kid, of course.  After Gonzalez, the starter with the next best numbers was arguably Jordan Zimmerman.  Zimmerman pitched like a stud, good enough to be a number 2 man on many teams, an ace on a couple.  He comes behind Strasburg and Gonzalez on this depth chart, but doesn’t pitch like a number 3 man.  He went 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA last season in 195 IP, good enough for second on the team.  Now, he may see some regression last year as his 251 BAA and 1.17 WHIP aren’t as strong as that ERA number, but he can approach 200 IP and should keep his ERA south of 4.  And, of course, we have Stephen Strasburg.  He was great for the Nats in his 28 starts.  He went 15-6 with a 3.16 ERA and 197 Ks.  He almost struck out 200 in only 159 IP.  He won 15 games in only 28 starts.  This guy was a monster.  And it looks like he should continue to be one of the NL’s best in 2013.  His 230 BAA and 1.15 WHIP were solid.  Without an inane innings limit, this guy could really be a frontrunner in the Cy Young race.  This is an increble staff.  After those 3, the Nats will return breakout star Ross Detwiler.  Detwiler wasn’t even a lock to make this starting rotation last year.  In fact I had him in the bullpen behind John Lannan.  But after sending Lannan to the minors, Davey Johnson’s faith was rewarded as Detwiler went 10-8 with a 3.40 ERA.  Edwin Jackson was last season’s number 4 starter.  He was let go and replaced with Dan Haren.  Haren had a bit of a down season in the AL West with the Angels last year, going 12-13 with a 4.33 ERA.  He was limited to 30 starts and his peripherals (275 BAA, 1.29 WHIP) were not very good.  However, he is one season removed from a 16-10 season with a 3.17 ERA and 192 Ks in 238 IP.  He’s a workhorse.  The season before that one was cut to 14 starts due to injury, but he still won 5 games and turned in a 2.87 ERA.  The point is, Haren is a former ace with a workhorse mentality.  Moving to the NL East will help his numbers a bit.  While that divison isn’t bad, he’s on he best team in that division with the other teams featuring a bunch of new players, one with aging players and two at the bottom of the division that have a ton of holes.  I don’t think he’ll be a Cy Young candidate this year, but 10-15 Wins with a sub-4 ERA are a real possibility.  I also think a healthy Haren approaches 220 IP with 180+ Ks.  This starting rotation has 2 guys who can break 200 Ks, 3 that can break 175 and all 5 can surpass 150.  They will miss a lot of bats and should be considered favorites in the NL.  The bullpen is now anchored by new closer Rafael Soriano who Saved 42 games for the Yankees after the loss of Mariano Rivera.  He struck out 69 in 67 IP with a 2.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 217 BAA.  His career BAA is 199.  And as the primary closer in DC, he has a chance to Save 50+ games and should continue to be a high strikeout guy who doesn’t give up a lot of R.  I’d not be overly surprised to see him turn in a sub-2 ERA.  The Nats already had a strong closers in Tyler Clippard (32 Saves last year) and Drew Storen (43 Saves the year before last).  Bump those two guys back an inning, and you have great starters only being asked to go 6.  Beyond those guys you have strong pitchers in Craig Stammen and Henry Rodriguez and a former starter in Zach Duke.  This may not be the best bullpen in baseball, but it’s near the top.


2013 Prediction:

The Nationals are a great team.  Yahoosports has them ranked as the number one team in baseball coming into this season.  They have a very strong 1-8 in the offense and 4 quality starting pitchers, not to mention a scary bullpen.  There are no weaknesses on this club, and they have a ton of stars.  It’s hard not to pick them to win the NL pennant, much less the NL East.  And I’ve got them locking up this division and having a very strong year.

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