Well it’s that time.
Football is done. Pitchers
and catchers have reported.
Everyone is heading out to purchase their fantasy baseball
magazines. And you are wondering
what your team is looking like heading into the new season. Well I’m here to start breaking down
teams and see what they are looking like for this year. I waited for most of the free agents to
sign. Others may sign after I talk
about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team breakdown as
necessary. Last year I started
with the NL East. This year I’ll
start with the AL West. And while
I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last
season’s standings. I’ll continue
with the AL West and the team that finished in last place in 2012, the Seattle
Mariners.
Projected 2013 Roster
C- Jesus
Montero
1B- Justin
Smoak
2B- Dustin
Ackley
SS- Brendan
Ryan
3B- Kyle
Seager
LF- Raul
Ibanez
CF- Franklin
Gutierrez
RF- Michael
Morse
DH- Kendrys
Morales
Starting Rotation:
Felix
Hernandez, Hishahi Iwakuma, Blake Beavan, Erasmus Ramirez,
Hector Noesi
Bullpen:
Tom
Wilhelmsen (closer), Lucas Luetge, Charlie Furbush, Oliver
Perez, Josh Kinney, Stephen Pryor, Carter Capps
Projected Batting Order
2B- Dustin
Ackley
3B- Kyle
Seager
RF- Michael
Morse
DH- Kendrys
Morales
C- Jesus
Montero
LF- Raul
Ibanez
1B- Justin
Smoak
CF- Franklin
Gutierrez
SS- Brendan
Ryan
The Mariners finished in last in the very competitive AL
West last year. They’ve done a lot
to improve this year by adding some talented players through trades, signing
some talented free agents, and, most importantly, by being in the division that
added the Houston Astros. Nothing
will help the Mariners escape the basement more than the appearance of the
hapless Astros in their division.
So that’s a good start.
The Mariners have been one of the worst offensive teams in
baseball the last few years. A lot
of that has been their players. A
lot was their ballpark. Then the
ballpark, started keeping talented offensive free agents away, and the Mariners
realized they needed to make a change.
What was once perception became a reality as players thought Seattle was
a terrible offensive place to play, and they stayed away. Having subpar offensive players truly
made Seattle a terrible offensive place to play, so that’s what they addressed
this offseason. First, they moved
in the fences. Then they made two
big trades to add offense, adding Michael Morse from the Nationals and Kendrys
Morales from the Angels. Those two
bats, added to Jesus Montero, a trade from the Yankees last year, will
hopefully give this team enough pop to compete. In addition, they re-signed popular Raul Ibanez to be a
left-handed power bat, though he’s likely a platoon player now against right-handed
pitchers. They also took a chance
on Jason Bay, signing him to a low risk deal. He can platoon with Ibanez, and they can hopefully produce enough
power to be a threat. However
that’s not all it takes to compete, as the top two hitters in this lineup are
up in the air. I listed Ackley and
Seager, though it could be reversed.
And neither is likely going to bring back memoires of Ricky
Henderson. Or even Kenny
Lofton. If the top of their lineup
can’t get on base, then the bats of Morse, Morales, Montero, Smoak and
Ibanez/Bay will be struggling to produce runs. I like what the team has done, but they have to do a lot to
compete in this division.
The leading hitter on this team was Jesus Montero last year,
and he hit 260. Ouch. So it’s not just a power outage that
Seattle was dealing with, it was total offensive ineptitude. Morales, Bay, Ibanez and Morse all help
with the lack of power. Only
Morales and Morse address the other hitting concerns, and just barely at that. Kyle Seager was second on the team with
a 259 AVG. I put him second in my
lineup. Dustin Ackley hit an
abysmal 226 last year. Perhaps it
was a down year. Perhaps he was
hurt. I hope it was one of those
for Seattle’s sake because otherwise his breakout rookie campaign could have
been a fluke. Who knows? But the top of the lineup is an
issue. I put Ackley at leadoff
because his skill set most closely matches that expected of a leadoff man. But that may be a mistake with his
struggles. I put Seager second,
but that may not be optimal as he led the team with 20 HR and 86 RBI last
year. Justin Smoak was second on
the team with 19 HR, but that came with a 217 AVG. Michael Morse would have been third with his 18 HR, and he
only played in 102 games last year.
They need him to be a big HR hitter. That should give Montero more pitches to hit, and he may be
able to improve on his 15 HR.
Ibanez and Bay could combine for 15 more HR. Morse and Morales could each have 20 in them. And who knows what guys like Ackely,
Seager and Gutierrez can contribute.
There should be more long balls this year, but if no one is on base,
this team will still struggle offensively. They’ll be better, but I don’t know if this offense will
take them to the playoffs.
On the pitching side of things, King Felix was the team
leader again. He was actually
second on the team with 13 Wins, but had a 3.06 ERA to go with a team leading
223 Ks. He also led the team in
IP, WHIP and BAA (among starters).
He is their best player.
And though he had a bit of a down year (for him), he was still
superb. With a new deal in place
making him the highest paid pitcher in baseball, he will continue to lead this
club. He is a great pitcher in a
great offensive division. But he
still competes and is one of the best pitchers in the game. That being said, he can’t do it
alone. The second best pitcher on
this team, Jason Vargas, was shipped off to LA for Kendrys Morales making their
battle that much more difficult.
If we say it’s a wash and both teams made out equally positive, then
they are in the exact same place they were before the trade. And that leaves the M’s in 4th
place in this division, which is no longer last only because there is a new
team that will be taking up lodging in the AL West’s basement for the next few
years. Kevin Millwood was the M’s number 3 starter, was average at best, and is
now gone too. That brings us to Blake
Beavan, who may now be their number 2 man. He was 11-11 with a 4.43 ERA in 26 starts last year. Hishashi Iwakuma started 16 games while
pitching in 30 overall. He should
be the number 3 man. Erasmus
Ramirez will be number 4, though he only started 8 of his 16 games. And Hector Noesi logged 18 starts in 22
games. He fared the best of those
last three, going 9-5 with a 3.16 ERA.
These starters should keep the Mariners in games, but that’s about
it. None of them are going to be
All Stars (outside of Felix) and the Mariners are hoping a re-vamped offense
will support their patchwork starting rotation. Tom Wilhemsen and his 29 Saves lead their bullpen. He was solid with his 2.50 ERA and
should be set at the back end of that bullpen. Oliver Perez re-invented himself as a left-handed specialist
out of the bullpen with a 2.12 ERA in 33 games last season. He’ll return to Seattle’s bullpen. Lucas Luetge, Stephen Pryor and Josh
Kinney all had sub-4 ERAs in their limited appearances last season. All return and should be serviceable in
Safeco this year. This bullpen
won’t win any awards, but should be okay.
2013 Outlook
Geography has been unkind to the Mariners. They play in a division with some of
the best teams in the league. The
Rangers have won 2 of the past 3 AL pennants, the Angels have been offseason
champs for the past 2 years, and Oakland took their raw, young team and won the
division last year. The Mariners
don’t have the money of the Angels, talent of the Rangers, or magic of
Oakland. Despite their additions,
I think they will still finish behind all those teams again this year. The pieces they added on offense will
help, but all that power is limited when no one ever gets on base. I think the Mariners will struggle to
put men on this year. And while
King Felix is great and closer Tom Wilhemsen was good last year, there are
questions behind those two, both starting and relieving. The Mariners will finish exactly where
they did last year, which is no longer last, only because the Astros are
joining this division and may be the worst team in baseball. That is the first time geography has
done the Mariners a favor. But the
rest will be up to them. And I
don’t think they have the talent to get it done this year.
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