Well it’s that time.
Football is done.
Pitchers and catchers are reporting in a week. Everyone is heading out to purchase their fantasy baseball
magazines. And you are wondering
what your team is looking like heading into the new season. Well I’m here to start breaking down
teams and see what they are looking like for this year. I waited for most of the free agents to
sign. Others may sign after I talk
about a team, and when that happens I’ll update the team breakdown as
necessary. Last year I started
with the NL East. This year I’ll
start with the AL West. And while
I ranked teams alphabetically last year, this year I’ll rank them based on last
season’s standings. I started with
the Oakland Athletics, so I’ll move on to the team that was second in the
standings at the end of last season, the Texas Rangers.
Projected Lineup
C- A.J.
Pierzynski
1B- Mitch
Moreland
2B- Ian
Kinsler
SS- Elvis
Andrus
3B- Adrian
Beltre
LF- David
Murphy
CF- Craig
Gentry
RF- Nelson
Cruz
DH- Lance
Berkman
Projected Batting Order
2B- Ian
Kinsler
SS- Elvis
Andrus
DH- Lance
Berkman
3B- Adrian
Beltre
RF- Nelson
Cruz
C- A.J.
Pierzynski
1B- Mitch
Moreland
LF- David
Murphy
CF- Craig
Gentry
Starting Rotation- Matt
Harrison, Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, Alexi Ogando
Bullpen- Joe
Nathan (closer), Joakim Soria, Michael Kirkman, Jason Frasor, Tanner Scheppers, Robbie Ross, Wilmer Font
The Texas Rangers had a roller coaster season last
year. They spent the whole
offseason listening to all the baseball commentators pick them to finish second
behind the big spending Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Then, they spend pretty much the first
¾ of the season in first place, with a lot room to spare. Then they fell apart at the end of the
year only to see the Oakland Athletics, not the Angels, a team with one of the
lowest payrolls in baseball, vault past them and win the division. They were bounced by the Orioles in the
one game playoff and ended their streak of 2 straight AL Pennants. This offseason, they were outclassed by
a lot of people and seemed to be lost.
They were negotiating with Josh Hamilton, but put him on a back burner
while they pursued other players.
They missed out on Zach Greinke and Anibal Sanchez, before Hamilton
spurned them for division rival Los Angeles. This not only hurts the Rangers by subtraction, it hurts
them even more due to the huge addition it brings to their most serious
competition. Nolan Ryan and the
Rangers organization had an ugly falling out with Hamilton at the end of last
year, with the bad blood escalating to a point where the crowd at a home game
booed him. But he’s tremendously
talented and was a vital part of that team. To see him leave crippled the team, especially while they
failed to bring in any other quality players before and after his
defection. They are in a tricky
position with a lot of talented young players, but some don’t have a position
(Mike Olt) and others are blocked and perhaps not ready for the big leagues
(Jurickson Profar). And you don’t want
to pin your hopes on rookies. As
the Rangers sat pat, confused and unsure of what to do, other solid players
(Adam LaRoche) signed with other teams and trade options (Michael Morse, Justin
Upton) fell through. The loss of
Hamilton stunned this team, and they never recovered. Add to that the fact that they lost Mike Napoli to free
agency and traded Michael Young, and Texas is quickly falling behind their AL
West counterparts. They brought in
Lance Berkman to DH on a 2-year deal.
They also signed A.J. Pierzynski to be their starting catcher. But neither can come close to filling
the void left by Josh, even combined.
The Rangers made some mistakes this offseason, watching the baseball
world whiz past them. They will
struggle catch up.
The roster and batting order I put up are the way things are
looking right now. Things could
change. There are rumors of Ian
Kinsler moving to first base to make space for Jurickson Profar, but while he
was agreeable to that idea at first, he’s backed off that stance lately. Kinsler is now one of the main engines
for this team. He’s a perennial
30/30 candidate with 300 potential.
However he can never seem to put all that together at one time. He generally either pops off 30 HR and
hits 260 or hits 290 with 15 HR.
But they just need him to be a star. Nelson Cruz and Adrian Beltre will have to be the meat in
this order backing up the top of the lineup which manager Ron Washington has
said will feature Lance Berkman hitting third. I like Kinsler third personally,
or perhaps Beltre with Kinsler hitting 5th, but as it stands right
now, I bet this is the lineup. It
will be formidable, but missing serious pop without their star outfielder, who
will be residing in LA. Hamilton
led the team in HR (43) and RBI (128).
Add in the departed Mike Napoli’s 24 HR, and that’s a lot of wallop that
the Rangers have to make up. Hamilton, Napoli and Michael Young combined for 75
HR. Berkman and Pierzynski will be
hard pressed to replace that. They’ll
need help from Beltre again, as well as with Kinsler and Nelson Cruz, who
finally stayed healthy for a full season.
His numbers were solid (260, 24 HR, 90 RBI, 86 R), but they’ll need him
to be a star to make up for Hamilton.
Ian Kinsler was the team leader with 105 R and tied for first in SB with
Elvis Andrus (21). Adrian Beltre
was a stud last year and was second with 36 HR and 102 RBI to go with the team
leading AVG. After him the drop
off was steep. Kinsler had 19 HR and 72 RBI, but only a 256 AVG. If he commits to power he’ll help make
up for Hamilton, but he shouldn’t leadoff. Andrus can leadoff, but Kinsler has more experience in that
area. We’ll see what the Rangers
decide to do. But the 75 lost HR
are a lot, and the Rangers will really have to come up with a plan to make it
up if they want to compete in the talented AL West.
The Rangers’ pitching has finally started to catch up with
the offense. They showed some
talent in both seasons that they made the World Series. And though they lost C.J. Wilson to the
Angels before last season, they replaced him with a talented Japanese import in
Yu Darvish and a surprise growth candidate in young lefty Matt Harrison. Harrison ended up leading the team with
18 Wins and a 3.29 ERA. However a
regression to the mean is a very real possibility for this guy whose BAA (256)
and WHIP (1.26) were very pedestrian.
Perhaps he figured something out, perhaps not. But for a guy who only struck out 133 players in a team high
213.1 IP, he better be on top of his location as he’s not overpowering many
hitters. After Harrison, Yu
Darvish was the star going 16-9 with a 3.90 ERA in his rookie year. He led the team with 221 Ks in 190 IP. His BAA (220) was much more
sustainable, though his 1.28 WHIP was a little high. I think he is probably the true ace of this staff. After these two it dropped off a
bit. Derek Holland was solid, if unspectacular
going 12-7 with a 4.67 ERA. Colby
Lewis was 6-6 with a 3.4 ERA, but only started 16 games. Ryan Dempster and Roy Oswalt were bad
and Neftali Perez was hurt. Alexi
Ogando was solid, but mainly in relief.
And rookie Martin Perez looked overmatched. The Rangers will have to put together a rotation around the
guys they have left, with the options less appealing the further down we go in
the stats. The rotation will start
the season with Harrison, Darvish, Holland, Ogando and Perez most likely. When Colby Lewis returns from injury
around the All Star break, the question will be Perez or Ogando. If Perez pitches well enough, Ogando will
go back to the bullpen where he is dominant. Otherwise Ogando will start (which is what he wants to do)
and Perez will return to the minors.
Joe Nathan had a career renaissance saving 37 games for this club with a
2.80 ERA. He struck out 78 in 64
IP and had a nice 231 BAA and 1.06 WHIP.
Their main setup men are gone in front of him (Koji Uehara and Mike
Adams) and the next best reliever may be starting (Ogando). So the middle relief is looking shaky
and unproven. Scheppers was okay
last year and Soria will be a star set up man. Add in Frasor and there is some depth, but the Rangers will
again be worried about the middle relief in their bullpen.
2013 Outlook
Championships aren’t won in January for baseball. But if there was some sort of ranking
system to judge a team’s offseason activity, Texas would be near the
bottom. They are a great franchise
with a ton of young, homegrown talent and the type of impact players that it
takes to win consistently on the major league level. However their division has caught up to them. Oakland snatched the division from them
last year, and the Angels had more talent. The Angles continue to get more talented by poaching Texas
free agents (C.J. Wilson, Josh Hamilton), which pretty much makes it twice as bad
for the Rangers. They have some
stars on the team still (Kinsler, Beltre, Andrus, Cruz) and a solid core of
starters. If the middle relief
doesn’t kill them, the back of the bullpen looks okay. And they have nice role players to fill
in the rest of the spots. It’s not
that the Rangers will be bad, they just won’t be as good as last year. And with the Angels and Mariners
improving, and the A’s finish ahead of them last year that may be enough to
bury this Texas team come playoff time.
I predict a second place finish, and for this team, that’s a huge disappointment.
No comments:
Post a Comment